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Stormy Weather

Some good games yesterday, huh? My favorite line came in an e-mail from Mark Lamster: “If you happen to be Matt Holliday’s psychiatrist, go out and get that new Volvo–it’s gonna be a big year.”

Supposed to rain this evening. They’ll wait this sucker out as long as they can, you know that.

 jobs2

Here’s one for you guys, a breakdown of Joba Chamberlain’s pitching mechanics over at Baseball-Intellect.

I asked the author if Joba’s move to the bullpen changes anything.

Alex replied:

Fundamentally, it doesn’t really change. But when a pitcher moves to the bullpen, it allows them to air it out more. As a starter, he’s pacing himself and he’s not throwing with the same intent he does out of the bullpen. He’ll dial it up when he needs to, but he has to pick his spots.

Out of the bullpen, he can let it fly on almost every pitch and the intent to throw hard is an extremely important part of generating velocity. I do have an article on intent and it’s importance for anybody interested:

Brad Penny and the Intent to Throw HARD.

I’ll add that I did see a few pitches of his bullpen apppearance in Tampa and I didn’t see anything that would lead me to believe the old Joba is back. He had the typical velocity uptick we normally see from Joba out of the bullpen, but if he was back to his old self, we would see his velocity around 96 or 97. That doesn’t mean he can’t be effective, however.

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56 comments

1 RIYank   ~  Oct 9, 2009 9:34 am

That's interesting Alex. Er, Alexes. It makes me hopeful that he can return to top form next year.

I have to say that when I watch the little clips (not just these but all "pitching mechanics" clips), my first thought is, "They look exactly the same." Then I read the commentary and I can see what they're talking about. It's fun to get a glimpse of what real experts see; we don't get that much in baseball (partly because the best slots for experts on television and radio are filled by... non-experts).

2 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 9:35 am

That's a pretty encouraging piece, I think. If what the guy says is true, very encouraging. But just the general idea that mechanics are the primary problem is a lot better than a physical issue or mental issue. It kind of sounds like they rushed Joba; he probably could have used another year in the minors in order to attain more consistency in his delivery.

3 RIYank   ~  Oct 9, 2009 9:41 am

[2] Yep.

Now that I'm thinking about next year's pitching, it reminds me: are we just writing off CMW?
I hate to do it. I love the guy. But I don't see any real option. Sad.

4 Horace Clarke Era   ~  Oct 9, 2009 9:41 am

I don't think there is much doubt that Joba was rushed. We need to keep reminding ourselves how young he and Hughes are. Think about, say, Halladay and Carpenter ... look up their early years, how long it took them to become the dominant figures they now are. Aces at 22-23 are insanely rare ... and sometimes gone at 26-27, too. (Chicago Cubs, anyone?) I also think Joba's a bit worn down ... the innings cap is real, and not just for injury but also as a recognition of fatigue (which can cause injury). He's right at the cap now, around 160.

Holliday's gaffe will be remembered a long time but - like the Cubs fan claiming the foul ball - it was followed by the closer messing up three batters in a row, three chances to end the game, including against a guy who was 0 for 15 against him! Where's the 'pick up a teammate' spirit there?

On another note: because Tigers lost, I am not sure Miguel Cabrera is going to be able to live down that blood alcohol reading before a major game on the last weekend. If they win the 163rd it would have been a LOT easier.

5 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 9:59 am

[3] Another possible case of the Yankees mishandling a pitcher. It's also hard to swallow because it seems so mysterious. It's like he just ... disappeared.

6 Shaun P.   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:05 am

[3] [5] IIRC, Wang is out until at least mid-2010, so yeah, I wouldn't count on him. That said, I do think it would be foolish for the Yanks to just let him go. Sign him to a reasonable deal with the expectation that he eventually comes back. If Wang is able to come back to near what he was, that kind of pitching is expensive on the open market.

I'm not 100% sure we can blame Wang's ineffectiveness/further injury on the Yanks; we don't know what the doctors said and what Wang himself said, or wanted.

7 OldYanksFan   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:18 am

Oh No! Prepare to be shocked!
http://tinyurl.com/ygas7b7

8 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:22 am

Ok, now I'm seeing this Posada business on Sportscenter? Come on, man. I'm disappointed in Jorge. He really should have just kept his mouth shut.

9 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:27 am

[7] Ouch. That bit about the ball Delmon Young caught was hilarious, though. I mean, the night right after his 10th inning screw-up he almost does the same thing again. And as Sandomir points out, Caray tried to massage it as if it was a close play. Pathetic, really.

10 Rich   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:28 am

Given that the drop in velo occurred subsequent to the shoulder injury, I still think the issue is mostly physical (i.e., arm strength), but that it may have then affected his mechanics.

11 Rich   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:30 am

[7] As I said yesterday, Caray in only there because of his name. He stinks.

12 RIYank   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:30 am

Here's an interesting analysis from Tango Tiger (Inside the Book) showing a run dropoff (slightly more than monkeypants estimated using Ms. October's Runs Created numbers) when Molina subs for Posada. The Yankees get some compensation in runs prevented, but not enough. As everyone expected, it all comes down to whether Burnett really does pitch better with Molina behind the plate.
The net difference in win percentage is minuscule, in any case.

13 Shaun P.   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:32 am

[8] And what else is SportsCenter going to talk about on a Friday morning?

[7] Is it too much to hope that the MLB executives at Park Ave are reading that article and will ask TBS to ditch Caray after this postseason? Then again, he's been bumbling along for 3 years now and they haven't done so . . .

The lack of outstanding broadcasters on national baseball broadcasts is truly appalling. If MLBN was ever in enough houses to make it a profitable destination for playoff games, watch MLB use exactly that argument in not having the games on FOX/ABC-ESPN/NBC/TBS.

14 Ben   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:35 am

I think Alexes analysis of Joba is great. Make a lot of sense to me, too. But I'm not convinced, yet, that his mechanical alteration isn't really due to a mental issue. Seems to me, if you're feeling tentative in any way - worried about pitch count, or just trying to pace yourself - this kind of arm lag could occur. He's throwing hard, but his body isn't throwing with the same unified intent. His body seems to be distracted, conserving energy.

I think that if Joba doesn't straighten this out, he's asking for an arm injury. Maybe he needs to be in the pen, so he can go all out. Maybe he needs to try to throw the ball by the batter each time to get his body moving forward in unison. I don't know.

Ultimately i think we're just seeing that he's a young guy who still needs some development. Hopefully the Yanks can use him in these playoff without screwing him up even more.

15 Diane Firstman   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:35 am

Chip Caray is the C.B. Bucknor of announcers ...

(Just poking my head in ... this virus is still kicking my butt. Anti-biotics, mucinex and robitussin are only mildly helping. My doc has prescribed bedrest through the weekend. Thank goodness there is baseball and football to pass the time.)

16 RIYank   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:39 am

[15] You're taking antibiotics for a virus? You might need a new doctor.

17 Diane Firstman   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:42 am

[16]

I started taking antibiotics on the advice of my allergist, the day BEFORE I spoke to my doctor, who stated that I probably had a virus and that the antibiotics probably won't help, but that I should finish taking them anyway. He mentioned the small potential of "viral pneumonia". Ack!

18 Rich   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:50 am

[17] FB

19 Raf   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:53 am

[10] That is correct, and it wouldn't be the first time something like that happened to a pitcher. I eagerly anticipate Joba's 2010 season, and I hope he comes to camp in his best physical condition.

And what else is SportsCenter going to talk about on a Friday morning?

The Sox loss? The Dodgers win? :)

The lack of outstanding broadcasters on national baseball broadcasts is truly appalling.

The strange thing is that there are great broadcasters on the regional level. Don't know why MLB won't/can't dip into that pool (contracts?). Then again, given that they're using their TBS/TNT crew (Sager? Really?), I guess I can't be surprised that they're doing what they're doing.

20 Diane Firstman   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:56 am

[18]

FB?

FACEBOOK?
FAT B***H?
Fred Bilitnekoff?

21 Yankee Mama   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:58 am

Did anyone else have trouble with the telecast? On Time Warner, the image would freeze every few minutes and we'd miss the play. I don't know it was a TW problem or a TBS problem. I tried to reboot to no avail.

Of course, it always seemed to freeze when Ron Darling was speaking. But, never had the same luck with that numbskull, Caray. Boy, he calls a bad game.

22 Yankee Mama   ~  Oct 9, 2009 10:59 am

Feel better, no?

23 Rich   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:01 am

[22] YES!

24 Diane Firstman   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:04 am

[23]

Ahhh .... thanks!

[21]

Yes ... I have "Time Waster", and I experienced the same thing, but only on their HD feed.

and with that .... I'm going back to bed .... zzzz

25 Mattpat11   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:04 am

I'm in the minority who doesn't blame Holliday for that loss. At some point after that, Franklin had to get someone out

26 RagingTartabull   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:16 am

[25] Yeah I agree with that.

It's like the Bartman game, at any point does that becomes the Cubs fault?? Or are we just going to blame the team's collective incompetance on one freak occurance?

27 OldYanksFan   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:17 am

The lack of outstanding broadcasters on national baseball broadcasts is truly appalling.

I don't think this is entirely by accident.
Real baseball fans, who know what's going on, are appalled by Tim, Joe, and the rest of the slop. But what of the casual fan? Do they even know how bad these guys are? Maybe the same old repetitious stories, Jeter hero worship, the big bad Yankees payroll, and other junk are news to these people.

Remember when Fox (I think it was) had the CARTOON BASEBALL to explain, on a 3rd grade level, certain plays? I think these broadcasts might appeal to the group that ranges from moron to casual watcher... which is the vast majority of this country.

I remember the quote:
In America, 40% of the population is illiterate, and another 40% can read, but doesn't understand a thing they read. I mean, isn't Joe and Tim just perfect for this 80%?

Who remember's the name of that cartton baseball?

28 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:22 am

The Joba analysis is interesting, although to be honest, I am not sure how accurate it is. Of course, the biggest problem this season has been Joba's denial and refusal to break down his starts. He repeatedly lauded his mechanics all season and also proudly boasted that he doesn't watch video. If that attitude doesn't change, neither will his results. While I also think there is some residual physical impact, I think Joba's biggest problem has been an inability/reluctance to critically look at his performance and adjust. Hopefully, the Yankees are more hands on with him next season.

29 OldYanksFan   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:22 am

[25] I agree. There was still 2 out and just one man on at that point. I wonder if the post game show, where they played the Holliday clip 3 times, and then while discussing it, played it again, another three times (no exaggeration there... 6 times in about 90 seconds) will have anything to do with Holliday (who hit a HR) getting the blame.

At that point, or after the first hit, or after the second hit, was Franklin the best Tony LaRussa had?

30 RagingTartabull   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:24 am

[27] Remember when Fox (I think it was) had the CARTOON BASEBALL to explain, on a 3rd grade level, certain plays?

I believe you're referring to "Scooter"...and we're all trying to forget.

http://www.ronveenstra.com/images/363/scooter.png

31 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:28 am

[8] What did he say?

[13] That makes sense because baseball is a local game. With so few games exclusively broadcast on a national level, the incentive to find talent probably isn't there.

Also, speaking of MLBN, while I love it and have made it my exclusive destination for baseball highlights (I don't think I've watched ESPN Baseball Tonight all season), they haven't been perfect with their hires. Harold Reynolds, though seemingly very nice, is just awful, as are Mitch Williams, Sean Casey and Dan Pleasac.

[21] DirectTV lost the TBS broadcast for about 5 minutes after the Hunter HR. It seems like TBS has been having problems getting its feed through.

32 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:30 am

[25] It's not easy pitching with the tying run on 2B, especially when it should be the last out of the inning. It would be nice to have a closer like Mo who can pick up his fielders, but that ball hit Holliday in the chest. It was an awful error and that loss belongs squarely on his shoulders.

33 seamus   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:31 am

does anyone talk baseball here anymore or do we just gripe about announcers?

34 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:32 am

[27] Whose quote is that? That's a pretty elitist view.

35 RagingTartabull   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:33 am

[31] Reynolds is ok (for what he is), Casey is a complete moron. The whole "Mayor" thing only goes so far.

Pleasac and Williams, eh I find them generally inoffensive. I don't have much feeling on Pleasac one way or another, and Williams rips Schilling every chance he gets so he's just fine in my book.

36 Mattpat11   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:37 am

[32] Holliday put the tying run on second. If Franklin gave up one hit and then got out of the inning, and the Cards lost in extras, I'd say Franklin did all that could be expected of him.

He allowed four consecutive baserunners! If an error in left field forces Ryan Franklin to walk Russel Martin three batters later, Franklin just isn't good enough to be out there.

37 RagingTartabull   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:38 am

“You teach a child to read, and he or her will be able to pass a literacy test.”

- George W. Bush

38 seamus   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:39 am

[36] agreed. Holliday's error was ugly, but the pitching after it was just as ugly and critical.

39 OldYanksFan   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:43 am

[34] It may be... but the question is... how true is it?

40 Horace Clarke Era   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:45 am

[32] [36] William is never fazed by disagreement (or the banter would get a lot quieter!) but I'm with mattpat, as my [4] at the top suggests. Of course it was an error, of course he'll suck up blame for it. But squarely on his shoulders, when so many baserunners followed against a CLOSER? The 'no one else is Mo' argument doesn't wash, not for me. Franklin gets any one of those batters, St L either wins or goes to extra innings. Holliday could be dealing with rueful interviews as to how the ball knuckled on him and boy does he like his pitcher, instead of possible pain for his career. Lucky it is round 1 not the Serious.

41 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:51 am

[36] [38] Belliard's and Loretta's singles weren't particularly well struck. I also think the walk to Blake was a case of not giving in with the open base. The bottom line for me is Franklin got Loney to hit a ball right at Holliday and he didn't even get his glove on it. Even the best pitchers in the world will will issue a walk and give up a couple of singles, but a major league outfield should never drop a chest high line drive.

42 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:52 am

39] Not very true at all, in my opinion. Such a low opinion of this country strikes me as pathetic arrogance.

43 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 11:58 am

I am not sure if it was mentioned on a previous thread, but Joe Torre's decision to use Broxton in the 8th inning was genius. Even though LA was down 1, Pujols and Holliday were due up. Had the Cardinals scored another run, it would have been lights out. Instead, Torre correctly assessed the inning and brought in his best pitcher. I can't believe I am saying this, but Joe Torre was the MVP of yesterday's game. If he had managed like that toward the end of his Yankee reign, the Yankees might have rings in 2003 and 2004 as well.

44 OldYanksFan   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:00 pm

[37] That is just too funny! Let's give him another 8 years... but with a better VP.. like Sarah Palin.

Methinks the education system in this country is a bit borken.

45 ms october   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:07 pm

[43] i blame girrardi for you saying that!! :}

46 Horace Clarke Era   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:16 pm

[43] If he had managed like that toward the end of his Yankee reign, the Yankees might have rings in 2003 and 2004 as well.

William, I don't get it ... are you saying he has suddenly gotten smart? Or competent? Fountain of Youth in California? I don't want to dig up all the Go Joe/Get Gone Joe arguments, but boy do we all live by second guessing (even years later!) or what? I guess it is part of the fan world.

Me, I blame Bob Lemon for pinch hitting with Bobby Murcer. Worst decision I ever saw. So there.

47 Mattpat11   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:21 pm

How often do the best relievers give up four consecutive baserunners? And I wouldn't really say that Loretta and Belliard dinked him to death. They were solid hits up the middle.

48 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:30 pm

[46] What don't you get? I am saying that Joe Torre's decision with Broxton was a break from the pattern he developed in his later years as Yankee manager. Are you suggesting that managers are inherently wise and should never be questioned?

49 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:32 pm

[47] No is saying Ryan Franklin is among "the best relievers", which is why this game is on Holliday. Franklin got the two outs his team needed before yielding a walk and two singles. Even the best pitchers can give that up, much less Ryan Franklin. The only event in the inning that you can definitively say should not have happened on a major league ballfield was the Holliday error.

50 Raf   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:39 pm

If he (Torre) had managed like that toward the end of his Yankee reign, the Yankees might have rings in 2003 and 2004 as well.

He did. Weaver faced the bottom of the Marlins' order in 2003, and a rested Rivera got the call in the 8th inning of game 4 in 2004.

51 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:52 pm

[43] What about not pinch-hitting for Kershaw in the bottom of the 6th, then he promptly gives up the lead in the top of the sixth? I said this yesterday but, tie game, young pitcher with 90+ pitches, less than two outs - Torre should have PH for him.

Also, Wainwright seemed to think that Holliday lost the ball in the white rally flags they were waving.

52 The Hawk   ~  Oct 9, 2009 12:59 pm

[31] Too much.

53 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 1:07 pm

[50] Weaver (of a 2003 ERA+ of 73!) shouldn't have been on the roster, much less in the 11th and 12th inning. Also, it should be noted that Weaver was brought in an inning before giving the walkoff to face the middle of the order. Even though he amazingly got a 123 inning, it was still a very poor decision, made worse by pushing the envelope further in the 12th.

In 2004, he did use Mo in game 4, but then let Gordon fritter away a 2-run lead in game 5. He also didn't bunt on Schilling, run on Varitek, etc.

54 williamnyy23   ~  Oct 9, 2009 1:09 pm

[51] Kershaw was still throwing well and there was one out and no one on, so I didn't mind letting Kershaw hit.

55 Raf   ~  Oct 9, 2009 1:46 pm

[53] Neither should have David Weathers (1996 ERA+ of 53 with the Yanks, 78 overall), or Esteban Loaiza (2004 ERA+ of 53 with the Yanks, 82 overall), but they were there and used, and pitched well in their respective postseason series.

Seeing that Weaver got out of the inning unscathed, tossing 8 pitches to the heart of the order (wasn't even hit hard in that inning), it made sense that he would continue to face the bottom of the order (96, 97, & 94 OPS+ in Gonzalez, Encarnacion & Pierre).

As for 2004, he went to Rivera early in game 4, & followed his "formula" in game 5. As for not bunting on Schilling, makes sense since Cairo was the only accomplished bunter in the lineup. Not to mention they had already torched Schilling in game 1. An offense like the Yanks that can score runs in bunches, it makes sense that they would eschew the bunt. As for not running on Wakefield/Varitek, the bases were clogged with the Yankees' slowest runners (Mats, Posada & Sheffield, IIRC).

56 Horace Clarke Era   ~  Oct 9, 2009 3:39 pm

Wait! NO! Not the TorreDebateAgain.

My bad, Alex. Cliff. OYF, string me up or pour me a playoff Macallan. I ... encouraged William!

(Sorry, William. Sorry. Let sleeping managers lie.)

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver