Pitching In
Posted on Oct 27, 2009 2:38 pm
By Alex Belth
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Key Offseason Moves
- B. Bruney traded to WAS for 1st Rule 5 pick
- C. Granderson acquired for A. Jackson, I. Kennedy, P. Coke
- A. Pettitte re-signed $11.75M/1yr
- J. Hoffmann picked in Rule 5 draft
- C. Wang non-tendered
- N. Johnson signed $5.5M/1yr + option, incentives
- J. Vazquez, B. Logan acquired for M. Cabrera, M. Dunn, A. Vizcaino
Players
The Recently Departed
Vazquez trade
M. Cabrera BR BP E MLB
M. Dunn (L) BR BP E mi
A. Vizcaino BR mi
Granderson trade
A. Jackson BR mi DET
I. Kennedy BR BP E mi AZD
P. Coke (L) BR BP E DETRule 5 draft
Z. Kroenke BR mi AZD
K. Texeira BR mi SEA2009 Yankees
C. Ransom BR BP E MLB mi PHI mL
A. Berroa BR BP E MLB mi NYM
K. Cash BR BP E MLB mi
B. Bruney BR BP E mi
J. Veras BR BP E CLE
B. Tomko BR BP E mi OAK
J. Towers BR BP E mi LAD
S. Jackson BR mi PIT
A. Claggett BR BP E mi PIT
2009 mLers/campers
J. Leone BR BP mi mL TEX
T. Linden BR BP mi
T. Battle BC mi
E. Hacker BR mi PIT
40-man Roster:
Infielders:
M. Teixeira BR BP E MLB
R. Cano BR BP E MLB
D. Jeter BR BP E MLB
A. Rodriguez BR BP E MLB
N. Johnson BR BP E MLB
R. Peña BR BP E MLB mi
J. Miranda BR BP E MLB mi
K. Russo BR mi
R. Corona BR mi
E. Nuñez BR mi
Outfielders:
C. Granderson BR BP E MLB
N. Swisher BR BP E MLB
B. Gardner BR BP E MLB mi
J. Hoffmann BR BP E MLB
Catchers:
J. Posada BR BP E MLB
F. Cervelli BR BP E MLB mi
Starting Pitchers:
C. Sabathia (L) BR BP E
A. Burnett BR BP E
J. Vazquez BR BP E
A. Pettitte (L) BR BP E
J. Chamberlain BR BP E
P. Hughes BR BP E mi
C. Gaudin BR BP E mi
S. Mitre BR BP E mi
R. Sanchez BR BP E mi
I. Nova BR mi
W. De La Rosa (L) BR mi
C. Garcia BR mi
H. Noesi BR mi
A. Brackman BR mi
Relief Pitchers:
M. Rivera BR BP E
D. Robertson BR BP E mi
D. Marte (L) BR BP E mi
A. Aceves BR BP E mi
M. Melancon BR BP E mi
J. Albaladejo BR BP E mi
E. Ramirez BR BP E mi
B. Logan (L) BR BP E miCoaches:
J. Girardi (Mgr) BR BP
T. Peña (Bench) BR BP
Kevin Long (Hit) BR
D. Eiland (Pitch) BR BP
M. Kelleher (1B) BR BP
R. Thomson (3B) BR
M. Harkey (Pen) BR BPFree Agents:
J. Damon BR BP E MLB
H. Matsui BR BP E MLB
X. Nady BR BP E MLB
J. Hairston Jr. BR BP E MLB
E. Hinske BR BP E MLB
F. Guzman BR BP E MLB mi
J. Molina BR BP E MLB
C. Wang BR BP E mi
mL free agents:
D. Bernier BR BP E MLB mi
E. Duncan BR mi
M. Vechionacci BR mi
S. Duncan BR BP E MLB mi
J. Rodriguez BR BP E MLB mi
E. Gonzalez BR mi
C. Stewart BR BP E MLB mi
H. Sanchez BR BP E mi
J. Johnson BR BP E miSelect Minor Leaguers:
AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees:
C. Malec BR mi
P.J. Pilittere BR mi
C. Curtis BR mi
G. Kontos BR mi
K. Igawa (L) BR BP E JB mi
Z. Kroenke BR mi
K. Whelan BR miAA Trenton Thunder:
J. Snyder BC mi
J. Montero BC mi
K. Anson BC mi
J. Gil BC mi
Z. McAllister BC mi
A. Horne BC mi DL
K. Texeira BR BC mi
W. Arias (L) BC mi
J.B. Cox BC mi DLA Tampa Yankees:
M. Cusick BC mi
A. Romine BC mi
D. Betances BC mi DL
J. Ortiz BC mi
C. Heyer BC mi
C. Nolte BC mi
B. Smith BC mi DLLow-A Charleston RiverDogs:
D. Adams mi
B. Suttle BC mi
P. Venditte mi
J. Heredia BC mi DLLow-A Staten Island Yankees:
Rookie Gulf Coast Yankees:
C. Joseph mi
C. Smith mi
K. Higashioka miKey:
BR = Baseball-Reference
BP = Baseball Prospectus
BC = Baseball Cube
E = ESPN
MLB = MLB.com hit charts
mi = MiLB.com
JB = Japanese Baseball.com
Correction to an assertion I made within this vid: Pedro Martinez has one postseason start on three days’ rest, in the 1999 AL Division Series opener. He left after four innings due to a back strain, then famously returned four days later to pitch six hitless innings of relief to close out the Indians in Game Five.
Regardless, he ain’t going on three in this series.
Good pitchin talk. Is there another episode on hitting enroute? Splits, ridiculous OBS numbers, NYS v. CBP?
Also, I’d like to request that Cliff and Jay wear huge butterfly collars with obscene print shirts during the next segment (since it appears you guys are having a 70’s-off). :)
The 1970s called. They want their facial hair back. LOL.
Definitely good banter there fellas. I think you aptly summarized the Yanks slight advantage here: both starting and relief pitching.
Miguel Cairo is off the roster for the Phillies. Clearly we have just won.
[4] Whoa. The Phils’ BFOG quotient just dropped dramatically. They’re cooked.
I think I’m being unfairly lumped in with Jay’s Burt Reynolds stache and patterned shirt.
Meanwhile, what are OBS, NYS, and CBP?
Don’t know what OBS is, but NYS = New Yankee Stadium, CBP = Citizens’ Bank Park?
[7] Ah, yes, well we do indeed address all of that in tomorrow’s segment.
[5] I know, Miggy has the highest BFOG+ of any player still in it.
Funny story, when I worked at NYU there was a security guard in my building who looked *exactly* like him. I mean, dead ringer. Every morning I’d see him and wonder why Miguel Cairo was now working security for NYU, though he was the most clutch of all the guards.
[6] dude… your burns are in the same league!
My bad, I meant OBP, and yes New Yankee Stadium and Citizens.
cult if you are around prices dropping
– jump on your flight now!!
anything on roberston beyond cliff’s tweet of steve goldman’s take?
[10] D’oh. I almost shaved them when I cut my hair short a couple years ago, but I just can’t go full-on squaresville (not without some incentive, that is).
[11] Doesn’t seem so. Could be Steve was sniffing after something that wasn’t there.
If they pitch Lee 3 times, don’t we have to pitch CC 3 times? If not, doesn’t that give them an edge? As far as I’ve heard, Girardi hasn’t committed to a 3 man rotation yet.
Did Jimmy Rollins really predict Phillies in 5?
[13] thanks cliff. cerainly hope robertson is good to go.
[14] espn’s schedule has them both going in game 4. the lh guys said girardi has not named a game 4 starter and i have seen somewhere the phillies may be using blanton in game 4.
[12] how about if the yanks sweep :}
[14] CC pitching on three times is somewhat independent of whether Girardi uses a three- or four-man rotation. It depends on whether he wants to start AJ or Pettitte on short rest too. Otherwise, he can go with CC in 1, 4, and 7, AJ (?) in 2 and 6, Pettite in 3 and a fourth starter in 5.
I’m for the three man rotation, short rest for everybody.
AJ has a pretty good history on short rest. Andy, more worrisome.
But remember that for Games 3, 4, 5, the starter is fairly likely to leave the game early for a PH. That means AJ’s short rest start and CC’s first short rest start could well be short short rest starts. Short.
[16] what do I get if the Yankees sweep?
[19] What else is there?
[20] a lot.
The Yankees and Phillies are in the World Series, but the team doing the most celebrating tonight has to be the Seattle Mariners. Why you may ask? Because Kenji Johjima decided to opt out of the remaining two seasons of his contract, which still had $15.8 million remaining. As for Kenji, he is returning to Japan to play for Hanshin, and signed a four-year, $21 million deal to do it.
As for the team doing the least celebrating, that would have to be the Dodgers. According to AP, “Jamie McCourt on Tuesday filed for divorce from Dodgers owner Frank McCourt in Los Angeles and asked a judge to reinstate her as the team’s chief executive.”
If it guarantees a Yankee sweep, I’ll shave anything…no questions asked!
Sportsbook.com odds:
2009 World Series – Outright
* New York Yankees 11/25 (bet 25 to get 11)
* Philadelphia 81/50 (bet 50 to get 81)
Series/games
* Philadelphia Win 4-0 20/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-1 8/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-2 6/1
* Philadelphia Win 4-3 11/2
* Yankees Win 4-0 7/1
* Yankees Win 4-1 7/2
* Yankees Win 4-2 7/2
* Yankees Win 4-3 9/2
I’ve been watching the 1999 ALCS this week and two things stand out:
1) It’s incredible that 10 years later I am still watching several of the same players performing near peak levels as they win another pennant.
2) Knoblauch’s throwing problems really did get bad.
[24] Shave the whales! >;)
[25] Wow, that’s very Yankee-friendly indeed. I wish I were that optimistic!
Also very screwy odds. You only get 7 to 1 if you bet on a Yankee sweep?? That’s ludicrous.
[18] Good thinking!
How would a straight three man rotation affect the Dynamic Duo of AJ-Molina? Wouldn’t that mean that AJ would start one game in the NL, meaning that Girardi would have to bat the 8-9, unless he starts Posada.
But if he starts Posada one game and Molina one game, is he STILL going to carry Cervelli? Or, is he going to bump AJ to the #3 starter so that he can avoid pitching in the NL?
In any case, if Girardi can get over his paranoia that Posada might get hurt in the few innings that he plays after Molina starts, he should just drop Cervelli. Then he could carry Hinske AND either Guzman or the notorious 12th pitcher.
By the way, I love all the payroll talk and articles about how much the Phillies want to beat the Yankees (and how their fans despise their arrogance). Not only is the music to my ears as a Yankee fans, but I also think it’s great for baseball. Having the big bad wolf to root against is important in sports, especially one as regional as baseball.
[30] Yep. It’s good business if everyone is rooting against (and even a few for) one of the teams in the WS. And it will be really good business if the series is drawn out to 7 games.
Now to make things clear, I don’t business to be THAT good. A Yankees sweep would satisfy me just fine.
[29] maybe i am missing something – but if aj is #3 starter – game 3 is in philly
i don’t think there is anyway to avoid burnett in philly
no mats or po plus molina and burnett batting is gross
Speaking of odds, I did a little checking on a point from the last thread. I said I thought there were more errors on bunt attempts than on ordinary swings. Part III of the Baseball Prospectus article, “Taking one for the team”, provides some info.
Since “Error” or “Fielder’s Choice” or “Hit” are subjective scorer judgments, James Click instead gives the probabilities of the various outcomes: Success (meaning the batter is out and the runner advances), Failure (meaning the runner is out and batter is safe), and Overachievement (meaning runner and batter are both safe). With a man on first, the rates are 61.7%, 23.5%, 14.8%, respectively. (They differ slightly for man on second and men on first and second.)
14.8% is obvious much higher than the error rate for an ordinary ball hit in play. Some of those “overachievements” are not errors, but that’s not really the point. The point is that sac attempt is not really “giving away an out” since there is actually a decent chance that no out is made.
Notice, though, that there is an even greater chance that the out is utterly squandered: 23.5% of the time the batter is out and the runner doesn’t advance. (There is also a small but significant chance, amounting to a couple of percent or so, of bunting into a DP.)
Factoring in both the chance of overachievement and the chance of failure leads to pretty negative conclusions about sacrifice attempts. The situations in which they raise the team’s chances of winning are very few. Click’s “When is one run more valuable than two?” concludes that except in a tie game in the ninth, it’s practically impossible for a sac attempt to be worth while, unless the batter is really horrible (a pitcher, basically, and not Dontrelle Willis).
anyone watching this Holmes/Ali doc on ESPN? 30 for 30 really has been great, I gotta admit.
as far as Rollins picking the Phils in 5, I can’t say I’m all that surprised. And frankly I can’t even get that mad, he’s got his ring and his MVP so he can talk if he wants to. It’s on the Yanks to shut him up.
the next 24 hours are gonna go slooooowly.
[32] Aj has to start game 2, otherwise Pettite would be used on three day’s rest in that game too.
[26] that ‘99 ALCS really was some ugly baseball, winning in 5 was nice and all but ooooph some of those games (especially Pedro/Clemens) were tough to watch
[35] yep that too – but it seems impossible to avoid aj in the nl – unless the yanks go to a 5 man rotation :}
[36] There were lots of bad calls by the umpires too (makes this post season look mild), but the Yankees were a much better team than Boston that year. At the time, I really don’t recall the “rivalry” factoring into the equation, so it’s fun to watch it now. In many ways, the 1999 ALCS is forgotten, but it shouldn’t be…with it, the Yankees hold a 2-1 ALCS advantage over the Red Sox in head-to-head.
[37] Quite the opposite…it seems as if AJ can only pitch games 2 and 6, both of which are in NY.
[39] okay – i don’t know why i am getting myself so confused – if the yanks go with a 3 man rotation burnett would pitch game 2 (ny) and 5 (phi); if they go with a 4 man rotation burnett would pitch game 2 (ny) and 6 (ny)
Damn it’s nice to be on the Banter talking baseball during the world series….I’m glad Hinske is on the club but I’d kind of like to find a way to keep Guzman too…maybe jettison Cervilli?
[38] yeah I remember that 9th inning in game 4, I believe, where lots of pretty awful calls went against Boston and the whole thing kinda got away from them.
Game 1 was pretty great with the Bernie walkoff, and anytime you can clinch a pennant at Fenway thats a fun thing too.
My favorite forgotten playoff series is the ‘00 ALCS against Seattle, people forget how tight that thing was.
[40] Right…but I am assuming they go with a 4-man unless they are down 3-1 heading into game 5.
[42] It was one awful call in the bottom of the 8th, but a bang-bang play at first in the bottom of the 9th set off a mini-riot.
The best part of that series is George sat right by the Yankee dugout. I wish he was healthy enough to do that in this World Series.
I don’t really look at the 2000 ALCS as forgotten because the Justice HR was pretty huge. It was very close though. The Yankees were one inning from going down 0-2 heading to Seattle.
[43] I don’t get that.
Oh, do you mean the expected rotation is
CC AJ Andy CC Gaudin AJ CC
?
[24] Rumor here (from someone who is in a position to hear such things) is that the Mariners took very good care of Johjima before he made his way back to Japan..it’s consistent with the Japanese way of doing business, money things are not discussed up front a lot of the time..in any case, he was not a very good MLB player (and kind of an a-hole according to some sources!)
He should do all right with Hanshin though.
I LOVE Jimmy Rollins laying the smack-down! I want to see some real hatred on the field this WS!
[45] Right…I am thinking you go with Gaudin in Game 5 so you can avoid using AJ and Pettitte on short rest. Ideally, I’d love to have Pettitte for 2 and 6, but that was made impossible by the ALCS going 6. Still, I think you can have Pettitte ready to go if AJ falters early.
[46] According to USS Mariner, those rumors don’t appear to be true. Considering what Kenji had waiting for him in Japan, it seems as if the Mariners had more leverage here.
[45] [47] so you both think cc will go short rest and start 3 games even with a 4 man rotation?
[49] Yep…I think you start with the idea of CC going 1,4 and 7 and then fill in 5 and 6 based on how the series has progressed.
Also, if Gaudin does start, I wouldn’t let him go through the order more than 1+. I would hope for 3 innings tops and then go right to Aceves for a similar stint.