Over at the Pinstriped Bible, our pal Steve Goldman has a couple of posts on the prospect of Robinson Cano batting fifth:
Cano’s batting average ranked sixth in the league. His True Average (formerly Equivalent Average) of .293, which measures the sum total of his contributions on offense on a scale identical to batting average, ranked only 29th among players with 400 or more plate appearances. Among those finishing ahead of him: Jorge Posada (.301) and Nick Swisher (.300). You really don’t need the statistics to appreciate the basic reality of this: Posada and Swisher simply reached base more often. Unless Cano hits .350 this year or learns to take a walk, both spectacularly unlikely, and assuming business as usual on the part of either player, they are going to reach base more often this season.
Given the purpose of the batting order is to promote offensive production, what purpose is served here? Over the course of his career, Posada has been the superior hitter with men on, and his career OBP stands at .379. Like Cano, Swisher struggled to deliver baserunners to the plate, but still reached base 40 percent of the time in those situations. His strikeouts, viewed as an annoyance by the less sophisticated fan, meant he hit into a double play in only 11 percent of opportunities vs. 17 percent for Cano. Posada, despite his typical aged catcher legs, hit into a twin killing in only 14 percent of his opportunities.
We also haven’t considered another possibility, which is that not only does Cano not hit .350, he doesn’t hit .320 again either, instead falling back to his career averages of .306/.339/.480. Were he to do that, his OBP would barely escape the league average.
Kind of silly on Goldman's part.
I plugged in two line-ups to David Pinto's lineup analysis tool. Here is the result with Cano fifth. Swap Cano and Nick Johnson and the per-game output drops from 5.825 to 5.779. That is a tiny difference, amounting to 7 1/2 runs over the course of the entire season. So this really isn't worth worrying about.
I figure Girardi's idea is to see whether putting some confidence in Robbie will make any difference in his performance. If it does, great, the improvement will swamp the 7.5 runs. If it doesn't, no harm done. And if it makes him worse, then Joe can just swap him back. In other words, the move is all about psychology, not sabrmetrics, and lineup construction is a good area to experiment with, since the statistical differences are so small.
[1] I agree completely. It is time to see if Cano can step up his game. He has the skills and the potential to be a lethal weapon at the plate. The dude can flat out hit. Time to see if he's going to grow into a #3 type superstar hitter, or if he's going to slide into the 6 and 7 spot for the rest of his career. Just has to get his head screwed on right.
Besides, it's not as if the team is locked into their Opening Day lineup for the rest of the season. Things can and will change as necessary.
Impossible to get worked up over this one way or the other.
For all of Cano's "immense talent, but mental make-up" questions, he's not even close to the washout Elijah Dukes
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2010-03-17-1156021426_x.htm
[1] [2] I see Steve's point, and I understand it - but I wonder if he focused too much on OBP and not enough on SLG. When Cano does avoid making an out, he tends to get a lot of extra-base hits. With (presumably) A-Rod and/or Tex on base ahead of him, that should lead to some runs. Plenty in fact.
In other words, I'm not surprised to see the very small difference between using Cano (high SLG) and Johnson (high OBP) in the 5-hole.
[3] And yet I would gladly have the Yanks sign Dukes because of that talent, and the dearth of talented upper level OFs in the system. I wonder why the Nationals let him go? I haven't seen any details yet, though I'm sure they are coming.
[3] I don't think it's fair to say Cano has "mental makeup" issues. Too often, I think we focus on what is not instead of appreciating what he is.
[4] I'd already be on the phone with Dukes' agent if I was Cash.
[1 You nailed it. He acts like the lineup you use on Opening Day has to be used 161 more times, and he is clueless about how or why it might work. This is a big wiff for Goldman.
Re: Cano: Like Joba, it's time to move on ... Let any improvements be gravy, what ya see is what ya get.
That is one frickin' big helmet Frankie is wearing today ... but if it keeps him protected ... go for it.
[5] Why? At any rate, if the Mets had any brains left, they'd jump on him first; don't they need outfield depth?
Ranger's manager Ron Washington tested positive for cocaine last year, but will be retained as manager. I am probably being naive, but I didn't think anyone used cocaine anymore.
[9] Dukes is still young and has a lot of talent. Meanwhile, the Yankees have very little in terms of outfield depth, both on the major league roster and in the minors.
[11] i'm usually willing to sign players with "makeup issues," but in this case i just don't think it's worth it. this guy is trouble. it's a sad story and i feel bad for him (his father was convicted of murder when he was 12), but i feel worse for the women he's assaulted and/or threatened, not to mention his many children. i don't want him on the yankees.
[10] is that a joke?
[12] Sadly, no. I just heard it from Jon Heyman on E@#$...
[13] i mean the part about people not using cocaine anymore. but thinking about it more, i assume william meant he didn't think many baseball players still use cocaine.
[10] Yeah, how about that? Cocaine seems so quaint nowadays, which shows you how much my standard of expectations have fallen. I'm more surprised the Rangers are supporting him given how self righteous and protective most organizations are, but they did support Josh Hamilton with his issues, so good for them.
[12] To baseball organizations, I'm guessing the primary risk is that he would turn into Mel Hall; the underlying issue is that he is highly unpopular for his documented problems. His potential hasn't translated well so far, even if he's young, but the Yanks may be a crucible for him to shape himself up before he washes out. That or the Rangers; I just don't see him working out anywhere else, honestly. I said the Mets half in jest; they have lots of issues of their own, but they need outfield depth (particularly CF) and Tony Bernazard probably would have pushed for a guy like him if he were still there. I can't root for the guy right now except that I hope he gets whatever help he needs to change peoples' perception of him.
[14] Yeah, that's exactly what I meant and I'm sure William meant that too.
Marte just took a comebacker lined shot to the kidneys ... ouch!
[10] Hope they don't fire him..sad that players/managers with DUI's don't get fired, but someone using drugs could be...