In compiling these articles, I often select three topics of conversation, which may or may not have anything to do with each other. This week, I’d like to try something different: a series of random observations of what I’ve seen and followed in spring training. For this Yankee writer, this menu of pinstriped items has caught my attention over the last month and a half.
Bartolo Colon has been the largest–and yes, the pun is intended–of all the surprises in camp. “Chubbsy Ubbsy” has pitched beautifully this spring, with his last start representing the peak of his performance. After that game, one anonymous scout raved about Colon, calling him the “best pitcher” he had seen all spring, on any team. Colon has been throwing fastballs in the 94 to 95 mile-per-hour range, with good life and movement. He’s pitched so well that the Yankees have to include him on the Opening Day roster, either at the back end of the five-man rotation (where he may have to fend off the just-signed Kevin Millwood) or in the bullpen, where he might replace the traded Sergio Mitre. With Colon comes greater risk than Freddy Garcia, because he hasn’t pitched well since 2005 with the Halos, but there’s a potentially greater reward because of Colon’s higher pedigree. Now it all could blow up come June; Colon is 37 and hardly a practitioner of the Jack LaLanne workout program. But all in all, I think he’s worth the risk…
Eric Chavez and Jorge Vazquez have been the two other unexpected developments. Chavez has basically won the job as the backup corner infielder, but Vazquez has made such a strong impression that he could be the first recall if Chavez has a recurrence of back or shoulder trouble. Similarly, injuries to Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez could also lead to a Vazquez promotion, with Chavez stepping in to play everyday. Thankfully, the Yankees now have their first legitimate backup to A-Rod in years, this after dabbling too much in the likes of Ramiro Pena and Cody Ransom and watching Wilson Betemit belly-flop in the reserve role. Betemit, by the way, has rejuvenated his career in Kansas City, but we never saw any of that hitting ability during his time in New York…
Speaking of Pena, it’s time for him to abdicate the utility throne to Eduardo Nunez, who is a better athlete, the more proficient base stealer, and versatile enough to play the outfield corners. He has also shown strides with his hitting, winning the praises of Ken Singleton on the YES Network. Nunez may not be good enough to play shortstop everyday, but he has more than enough talent to play a role as a valuable and versatile backup…
Staying with the infield, I think Alex Rodriguez is on the verge of having a monster season. Having dropped weight, he’s leaner and more flexible, important attributes for a player who’s now 35. I could easily see A-Rod hitting 45 home runs and flirting with a .600 slugging percentage, which he hasn’t done since 2007, when he reached the .645 mark. Now, if he would just make a midnight escape from Cameron Diaz and return to good-luck charm Kate Hudson…
Rather surprisingly, Austin Romine appears to have launched past Jesus Montero in the race to become the No. 2 catcher. Romine can flat-out catch in the major leagues–there has been no question about that for two years now–and as the son of former Red Sox outfielder Kevin Romine, he carries himself well in the clubhouse and on the field. But I have serious doubts about his ability to hit, especially when he’ll have to do so with irregular at-bats. So with Romine and Russell Martin, the Yankees would be carrying two questionable hitters behind the plate, rather than mixing in a good hitter as part of the equation. I know Montero has had a poor spring with the bat, but his minor league record indicates that he will hit with ferocity. There are times that Montero could pinch-hit for Martin or even Brett Gardner (against lefties), giving Girardi some more flexibility in the late innings. Without Montero, much of the pinch-hitting burden would fall on Andruw Jones, but what happens on days when Jones starts in the outfield? I’ll say it again: give me more backups who can swing the bat, especially in the era of the four-man bench…
The Yankees’ Rule 5 draft turned into a double dud this spring. Left-hander Robert Fish pitched brutally and was traded to the Royals, while righty Dan Turpen disappointed the coaching staff and earned a return ticket to Boston. To put it mildly, the Yankees have not done well with Rule 5 over the last two seasons. Last year, for reasons that remain unknown, they took obscure outfielder Jamie Hoffmann, who failed to last the spring in Tampa before being returned to the Dodgers. Historically, there has been talent to be had in Rule 5. Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, Dan Uggla, Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, George Bell, and Kelly Gruber have all been taken in the draft over the last 30 years. Why can’t Brian Cashman, just once, find a gem like one of those guys?…
“Handy Manny” Banuelos likely won’t pitch in the Bronx this year, but he wowed everybody with his spring performance, especially his start against the Red Sox. Banuelos reminds me of a cross between Andy Pettitte and Ron Guidry. He has Pettitte’s build and delivery, but Guidry’s explosive stuff. I don’t care if Banuelos is under six feet; the importance of pitcher’s heights has long been exaggerated by scouts and talent evaluators. (Guidry, Tim Lincecum, Roy Oswalt, Billy Wagner, Pedro Martinez, Tom Gordon, Fernando Valenzuela, Whitey Ford, and Bobby Shantz all enjoyed terrific careers under the six-foot mark.) Barring injuries, Handy Manny will be in the Yankee rotation come 2012…
Finally, the rash of oblique strain injuries has reached ridiculous proportions with the Yankees. Curtis Granderson, Greg Golson, Joba Chamberlain, and Pedro Feliciano have all been affected this spring. In fact, the oblique problem has become an epidemic across the major leagues. This is an injury that was practically unheard of prior to the 1990s, but hardly a day goes by without another case being reported. I have to believe this is related to improper weight training and lack of proper stretching. Hey, I’m all for weight lifting and the positive impact it has had in adding power to the game, but if it’s playing any kind of a role in the oblique plague, then team trainers need to re-evaluate how players are hitting the weights and how they’re doing their stretching.
Bruce Markusen lives in Cooperstown, NY, where he works at every museum in town.
Hm.
I don't think we need Romine and Montero on the team. That would be ridiculous -- four catchers on the roster! Is there serious talk of letting Jesus start the season in Scranton and then rise up (maybe Easter would be good)?
Why can’t Brian Cashman, just once, find a gem like one of those guys?…
This is just silly.
The rule 5 draft is like looking for a needle in a haystack, a REALLY big haystack.
Seriously, take a look at the draft listings over the last 10 years:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
The VAST majority of picks get returned and even those that DO stick, usually don't amount to much, certainly not in their 1st year.
And, of course, for the Yankees, the Rule 5 draft is like looking for a needle in a REALLY big haystack, after 25+ guys have gone through it with a metal detector.
Here's where some of the Rule 5 gems have been found:
Santana 1999 2nd pick Twins
Bautista 2003 6th pick Orioles*
Uggla 2005 8th pick Marlins
Soria 2006 2nd pick Royals
Hamilton 2006 3rd pick (for) Cincinnati
*Bautista isn't really a Rule 5 draft success story like the others, it would be 5 years and 5 organizations after being a Rule 5 selection that he would finally break out.
Just like with the June amateur draft, if the Yankees team is winning, they'll never have a high draft position.
Now, unlike the June draft, the Yankees *could* trade up in the Rule 5 if they saw someone they really wanted (they did this in 2009 to acquire Jamie Hoffman), but again, the rules of the draft work against the Yankees finding success in it, since the claiming team must keep the player claimed on the 25 man roster (except for injury) for the entire year or forfeit the pick.
For a contending team, like the Yankees, that means the player must produce immediately or effectively force the team to operate at roster disadvantage for 5 months.
Bad teams, like the Marlins, Royals, Reds or Orioles can afford to take chances on playing time for Rule 5 guys, they have the roster room to spare and a lack of immediate pressure to produce; championship contending teams don't. Case in point, all the Rule 5 draft success that the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves have had in the last 10 years.
Oh, right, they haven't.
[1] From Chad Jennings today:
“(Molina)’s a guy we’re looking at,” he said. “With Cervi going down, and you have young kids that you really consider as everyday players, prospects. You want them to play everyday. If you feel there’s a need that you have to take one of them, you will. Molina does have big league experience. We’ve given the young kids a lot of looks, and we’re giving Molina some looks now too so that we feel that we’re making the right decision, what’s right for everyone, the team (and) these young guys careers.
“These are kids that have only caught every day one year. The determination is, do you want to take them out of that for a month (or) a month and a half and retard their development a little bit? That’s a decision we have to make. Or do you want to go with a veteran guy who has caught in the major leagues and knows how to do it?”
Sounds like Montero to AAA and Romine to AA to me ...
[3] It does, you're right.
Hey, why not add Molina and still carry Montero and Romine? You know what they say: you can't have too much catching!
RI Yank, I never suggested that the Yankees carry both Montero and Romine. It's clearly an either/or situation. I would rather see Montero because of his hitting. That way, the Yankees aren't saddled with two light-hitting catchers.
Cult, my line on Cashman was pretty much a throwaway line, but since you didn't like it, I'll respond. It's not so much that the Yankees haven't found a gem in Rule 5, it's that they haven't even found a good role player or even a backup or middle reliever with some staying power. The Phillies got Shane Victorino in Rule Five, and the Red Sox got Lenny DiNardo, who was nothing special but did manage to stay on the roster for three seasons. The Yankees' Rule 5 picks don't even seem to last one season. Josh Phelps is the only one I can remember of recent vintage who even stuck for part of the season.
The Hoffmann pick was just bad. He was the first pick, and wasn't even close to being considered the best minor leaguer available.
I realize that Rule 5 is a longshot grab bag, but the Yankees could have done a little bit better with some of their picks.
Cult, my line on Cashman was pretty much a throwaway line, but since you didn’t like it, I’ll respond.
If it was "pretty much a throwaway line" then why bother with an entire paragraph leading up to it as the conclusion?
It’s not so much that the Yankees haven’t found a gem in Rule 5, it’s that they haven’t even found a good role player or even a backup or middle reliever with some staying power. The Phillies got Shane Victorino in Rule Five,
Ah, Shane Victorino, I was hoping you'd bring him up.
Yes, the Phillies selected Victorino in the 2004 Rule 5 draft (n.b. 7th pick).
Subsequently, Victorino impressed the Phillies SO much in Spring Training, hitting .167 in 54 at bats, they promptly offered him BACK to the Dodgers, who refused to pay, allowing the Phillies to keep Victorino AND, more importantly, send him to the minors and take him off the 25 man roster.
Which, of course, was the other, more critical reason the Phillies had offered him back to the Dodgers; they couldn't afford to keep him on the 25 man roster the entire year, since they expected to battle the Braves for the NL East title in 2005 (which they did).
Thus underlining again the point I made above about the type of teams that can and can't afford to take chances with keeping Rule 5 picks on their active roster for an entire season.
Red Sox got Lenny DiNardo, who was nothing special but did manage to stay on the roster for three seasons.
Nothing special?
That's one way of putting it, I suppose.
DiNardo *did* pitch parts of 3 seasons for the Red Sox.
He appeared in 43 games, pitched 81.1 innings, gave up 108 hits and 37 walks and 50 earned runs.
That works out to a scintillating 5.55 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and a grand total of 0.6 Wins Above Replacement as the return on a three year investment.
If your question is, "Why can't Cashman find players like Lenny DiNardo in the Rule 5 Draft?"
My question is, "Why would he want to?"
The Yankees’ Rule 5 picks don’t even seem to last one season. Josh Phelps is the only one I can remember of recent vintage who even stuck for part of the season.
And?
Since the rules of the Rule 5 Draft were changed with the 2006 CBA (see below), the 7 teams I mentioned in my previous post have selected 11 players in Rule 5 drafts (not including 2010).
Of those 11 players, 1 player stuck for part of a season (Phelps) and 2 players were kept for the entire season.
Brian Barton stuck with the Cardinals in 2008, accumulating 150+ at bats and delieving 1.0 WAR. He was so highly considered that the Cardinals traded him to the Braves in 2009, where he only managed 1 at bat before being released. He's now on his 4th organization since.
David Herndon, surprisingly (Goldstein gave him 35-1 odds) stuck with the Phillies and put up a 0.4 WAR for the Phillies in 2010. Despite beating the odds last year, it's doubtful that Herndon's ever going to be anything more than a fungible, 12th man on the staff kind of pitcher, since he lacks stuff and the ability to strike people out.
You can say, well the Yankees can't even find a Herndon, but again, the response is, why do they need to?
It's not like they don't have the equivalent, or better sitting, waiting in the minors (almost all of whom have options and don't tie the Yankees hands over a spot on the 25 man roster) ...
The Hoffmann pick was just bad. He was the first pick, and wasn’t even close to being considered the best minor leaguer available.
Remind me again, which of the following future stars should Cashman *have* drafted instead of Hoffman last year?
#2 John Rayner OF Pirates 0.0 (WAR) **
#3 Ben Snyder LHP Orioles DNA ***
#4 Edgar Osuna LHP Royals DNA ****
#5 Hector Ambriz RHP Indians -0.4
#6 Zack Kroenke LHP Diamondbacks -0.2 DFY
#7 Carlos Monasterios RHP Dodgers -0.6
#8 Jorge Jimenez 3B Astros DNA *
#9 Bobby Casseveh RHP Athletics DNA *
#10 Zechery Zinicola RHP Blue Jays DNA *
#11 Chuck Lofgren LHP Brewers DNA ***
#12 Mike Parisi RHP Cubs DNA ****
#13 Armando Zerpa LHP Dodgers DNA *
#14 Kanekoa Texeira RHP Mariners 0.2 DFY
#15 Steve Johnson RHP Giants DNA *
#16 Ben Jukich LHP Cardinals DNA *
#17 David Herndon RHP Phillies 0.4
DFY Drafted From Yankees
DNA Did Not Appear (in majors)
* Returned before season start
** Returned after season start
*** Minors after trade
**** Minors after parent team refused return
***** Lost on waivers during season
So, 16 players drafted in the Major League portion of the 2010 Rule 5 draft after the Yankees.
Of those, only 2 were position players and neither stuck even though they were drafted by the Pirates and the Astros, two of the worst teams in baseball in 2010.
Of the 14 pitchers:
5 were returned before the season started.
2 were sent to the minors after being traded for.
2 were sent to minors after being offered back to the originating team and refused.
5 stuck in the majors all year (although K. Texeira only lasted until May with the Mariners before being released, to be claimed off waivers by the Royals).
Those 5 *pitchers* managed a grand total of -0.5 WAR.
All things considered, I'd say the Yankees came out ahead by drafting Hoffman and returning him before the season started.
I realize that Rule 5 is a longshot grab bag, but the Yankees could have done a little bit better with some of their picks.
From 2001 through 2009, Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox (who seem an appropriate surrogate) picked 9 players in the Rule 5 Draft.
3 players lasted part of a season, totaling 32 Plate Appearances, 3.2 Innings Pitched and -0.3 WAR.
1 player lasted 3 seasons, totaling 81.1Innings Pitched and 0.6 WAR.
I guess congratulations are in order to the Boston Red Sox for their excellence in Rule 5 Drafting!
10 years of picking players in the Rule 5 Draft and a *whopping* total of 32 plate appearances, 85 Innings Pitched and 0.3 WAR to show for it.
The Boston Red Sox, "a little bit better" than the New York Yankees at the Rule 5 Draft!
***
Finally, the CBA signed in 2006 changed some of the rules of the Rule 5 Draft, specifically adding one year to the time that a team can control its minor league players before having to place them on the 40 man roster or leave them exposed to the Rule 5 draft.
Teams are now afforded an extra year to observe their players' development (4 years for players drafted/signed age 19 or older and 5 for players drafted/signed 18 and younger) , leading Kevin Goldstein to write, in his preview of the 2009 Rule 5 Draft:
Ack BOLD fail.
Doh!
So now you're saying that Victorino doesn't count because he was offered back. The bottom line: he stayed with Philly long-term and became a good player.
DiNardo did have one good season with the Red Sox. That's more than can be said of any of the Yankee Rule Fives.
Of, if I could only take back that throwaway line about Cashman and be spared such a tirade of sarcasm. I should have just said the Yankees have not done well with Rule 5.
It's time like these that make writers wonder whether it's all worth it.