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Let’s Make a Dope Deal

According to Wallace Matthews the Yanks and Robbie Cano’s agent, Scott Boras, have been in touch.

Let’s say they sign him. What do you think the deal will be for in years and dollars?

Categories:  1: Featured  Spring Training  Yankees

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1 bp1   ~  Feb 21, 2013 9:20 am

It's hard to predict what this Yankee management team will do. It seems if they want something (CC, Tex) they're willing to open their wallets and make it happen. On the other hand, they've shown signs of being a little more restrained than The Boss. This one is a tough call. It all comes down to how much the Little Boss wants Cano to remain a Yankee for life like Jeter, and how much they are stinging from the A-Rod contract.

I could see this being a mega deal, and I could also see it not happening at all. This is a tough one to predict.

I like Cano and I hope he stays on the team. Beyond that - I don't have much emotional investment here for some reason.

2 monkeypants   ~  Feb 21, 2013 9:45 am

Too much and too many.

3 Shaun P.   ~  Feb 21, 2013 9:54 am

[0] "What do you think the deal will be for in years and dollars?"

Too many and too much.

I mostly think the Yankees should keep Cano. He is the best hitter on the team. The 2014 free agent class, after Cano and Granderson, is pretty bad IMHO. I don't see any other impact players (hitters or pitchers) available. I think the Yankees have to re-sign one of those two, and I would rather they re-sign Cano. He is younger and it will be easier for the Yankees to find another outfielder (whether from within or a free agent).

The problem is that second basemen age poorly. By the time Cano is 35 (2018), he's likely to be in significant decline. However, to keep him, the Yankees probably have to sign him to a 7 or 8 year deal. I think that cost is worth having him for 2014-2017, but it is not without risk.

4 Shaun P.   ~  Feb 21, 2013 9:55 am

[2] Hey, nice post! ;)

5 Capital Yank   ~  Feb 21, 2013 10:20 am

Last Spring Ian Kinsler signed a 5 year extension for $75M. You gotta figure that's the baseline for Robbie and he'll be expecting to get more. Factor in that Scott Boras is Cano's agent - as opposed to the Ozark-based sports agency/lawn mower company that represents Kinsler (...not kidding about the lawn mower part) - and I think the absolute minimum the Yanks will need to put up is somewhere around six years and $100M.

I love Cano, but if that is really the minimum and he's likely to be able to negotiate the years/money up, it might be a better idea not to set the team up for yet another albatross contract.

6 Dimelo   ~  Feb 21, 2013 10:31 am

Ugh! I love Cano just as much as the next guy, but I can't stand this philosophy of signing players to be unproductive way past their mid 30s.

For me, at this point, any day that the Yankees are paying major money for a player past his 35th birthday is one huge eff'ing risk. I can understand doing that for players like Mo and Jeter, but I don't see Cano being like any of those two. There are special players, and I love Cano, but I don't see him being so special past these next two years.

This sounds a lot like the talk with the Mets and Reyes, the Met fans were adamant they needed Reyes. They practically won the same amount of games the year after Reyes left.

Also, I don't think Cano can handle being The Man...what we saw last year wasn't a guy who is ready to be The Man and carry the team. He did have a great ending to his season, and definitely helped us get into the playoffs during those last two weeks. Before that he was producing but not carrying the team, and during the playoffs he definitely didn't carry the Yanks when they most needed him.

So if he isn't going to make us significantly better, then my my hope is that they let him walk. And I don't think he's going to make us significantly worse either. But hey, maybe I'm in the minority.

Did I mention I really do like Cano? :-)

7 garydsimms   ~  Feb 21, 2013 11:18 am

I agree with [6] - I just don't see Robbie as the core guy. He's maybe a top 15 position player in MLB now, but I don't see him leading an offense, esp. once other producers are gone (or still there collecting semi-retirement checks from the Yanks). And I really don't see his stats getting better than last year.

OTOH, he'd fit in well with a team like the Dodgers, surrounded by big sticks, where he could bat 2,3,4,5, or 6. The number of teams willing to shell out $120-$150 M or more for him are limited. Can the Yanks get him for 4 years $100 million? That's a deal I'd make, but I doubt Scott would take it, probably looking for 6 or 7 or 8 years, which is just absurd for the Yanks now.

I like him, he's a good player (who gets a bum rap for not making things look tough), but he's not "the man."

8 RIYank   ~  Feb 21, 2013 11:19 am

Six years, $115 million.

The fifth and sixth years won't be good, but they're going to pay for the first three or four and swallow the bad money after that.

9 monkeypants   ~  Feb 21, 2013 11:48 am

[8] As I understand it, according to the CBA, the soft salary cap/luxury tax is assessed based on average annual salary . I wonder of Cano, Boras and the Yankees have thought about something crazy like a 20 year/$200 million contract. Would the commissioner void it? Would teh union?

10 RagingTartabull   ~  Feb 21, 2013 12:03 pm

I'm not so concerned with the money as I am about the years. Anything up through 6 years, I think you have to do it. 7-8 is a big stretch, but I can swallow hard and say "OK". Anything past that, absolutely not.

And like I've said before, I don't want to go 8 years. I'm just saying that is my absolute, no-going-past-it, highest I'd be willing to go.

11 rbj   ~  Feb 21, 2013 12:20 pm

How about a 1 year, $15 million deal to get under the $189 million threshold for 2014, with an understanding for a mega-contract (7 years, $160 million?) afterwards?

12 Alex Belth   ~  Feb 21, 2013 12:31 pm
13 Chyll Will   ~  Feb 21, 2013 7:56 pm

[11] They can structure it any way they like, but a lot of factors would have to go into a deal like that for me to even consider that if I were Robbie. Corporations are not often in the habit of doing favors for their employees, but there are a few exceptions.

At any rate, there's word that Hal might be reconsidering the self-imposed threshold...

The question is, what do the Dodgers know that the Yankees don't/didn't, or vice-versa?

14 Mr OK Jazz Tokyo   ~  Feb 21, 2013 10:47 pm

[12] It's about time.

Is it against the rules to sign someone for, say, 5yrs/$50 million with a $50 million signing bonus?

15 OldYanksFan   ~  Feb 21, 2013 10:59 pm

[14] The signing bonus gets calculated into the AAV, so no tax money is saved.

I think it's nuts, but it seems like Cano will get $175m+, and $200m is not out of the question.

Based on war (@ $4.5m per), I figure Robbie, at best, is good for 35 WAR over the 8 years, 31-38. That puts his worth around $160m. He could get more than 35, but I think the odds are far, far, far greater that he gets less.

According to bRef:
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, From Age 31 to 38, (requiring WAR_bat>=35), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

Seasons/Careers found: 23.

23. In the history of baseball.

16 monkeypants   ~  Feb 22, 2013 12:41 am

[15] et al. I was being more or less serious in [9]. What would the league or union do if the Yankees signed Cano to a 20-year contract totalling $200 million? That would only count $10 million/year for luxury tax purposes.

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