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Don’t look now, but as a result of last night’s action, the Twins have slipped past the Yankees for second place in the Wild Card chase, and they still haven’t called up rehabbing lefty ace Francisco Liriano, who’s been dominating triple-A for a while now. Having lost four of their last five, the Yankees really need to get back on the ball. Sure, they scored six runs last night, but four of them came after the game was out of reach, and three came in the ninth inning which was pitched by Darrens Oliver and O’Day rather than Francisco Rodriguez.

Tonight, the Yankees will have to do better to compensate for their starting pitcher, Sidney Ponson. The Yankees are 4-1 in Ponson’s starts, but only one of those wins came in a game in which the Bombers scored less than nine runs. Sir Sidney’s ERA since joining the team is 6.08, and he’s walked as many as he’s struck out (12 of each in 26 2/3 innings). A bad outing today could force the Yankees contemplate their alternatives.

Phil Hughes was just activated off the DL and optioned down to low-A Charleston. He’ll pitch his way back up the system without the rehab clock ticking. Alfredo Aceves allowed four runs in five innings in his last start for triple-A Scranton and is still stretching himself out following a groin injury which coincided with his promotion from double-A. That leaves Ian Kennedy, who continues to pitch well for Scranton. In his last three starts, Kennedy has posted this line: 20 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 14 K. Joe Girardi said that Kennedy would have to pitch his way back up after coming off the DL. I’d say he’s done that.

Getting back to tonight’s game, having scored just three runs off the Angels’ fifth starter last night, the Yankees now have to contend with Ervin Santana. Santana emerged as a young starter with a lot of potential in 2005 at the age of 22. He started to deliver on that potential in 2006, but last year was a lost year for him. Sporting a 6.22 ERA and a 5-11 record in July 17, Santana was farmed out for reeducation. After returning, he was much improved (4.50 ERA, 39 K in 40 IP, 3 HR), but still inconsistent. This year, he seemed to be putting it all together at age 25, boasting a 3.01 ERA and an 8-2 Record on June 8, but in eight starts since then he’s been back to his old inconsistent ways: 4.53 ERA and a team record of 4-4 in his games. He’s striking out more than a man an inning, but that’s the only thing that he does reliably.

Santana last faced the Yankees during the lost portion of his 2007 season, and was accordingly lit up (3 IP, 9 R), so there’s no real history to go on here (his two starts against them in 2006 are both ancient history and were middling performances that resulted in wins). One thing’s for sure, the Yankees need a win, and they need to light up the scoreboard for that to happen with Ponson on the hill.

Unfortunately, Xavier Nady is out of the lineup with a sore right quad. That puts Johnny Damon in left, Jason Giambi at DH and, with the groundballing Ponson on the mound and a righty going for the Angels, Wilson Betemit at first base.

Having thrown 3 2/3 innings last night Chris Britton is headed back to Scranton (surprise!) and Brian Bruney, as initially expected, is up to fill the final bullpen spot. In seven rehab appearances for Scranton, Bruney posted a 3.29 ERA. He struck out 15 in 13 2/3 innings and allowed no home runs but also walked 11.

On a hot, humid night in the Bronx last night, Andy Pettitte had a hard time staying cool and composed. Drenched in sweat and clearly off his game, Pettitte struggled with his command and the communication with his new catcher, Ivan Rodriguez–at one point Pettitte simply mouthed “four seam, four seam” before delivering a pitch. The big lefty managed to strand a pair of walks in the first inning and work around a pair of singles in the second, but in the third he gave up a pair of three-run homers to Torii Hunter and Juan Rivera that broke the game wide open.

The Yankees got a run in the fourth on a Bobby Abreu solo shot off Angels starter Jon Garland, and another in the fifth when Melky Cabrera tripled and scored on a subsequent hit by Johnny Damon, but the Angels got those back and more in the sixth. Pettitte gave up one more tally before getting the hook with one out in the sixth, but he left two runners on base for Chris Britton. Britton retired two of the first three men he faced, but the one he didn’t get was Vlad Guerrero, who added yet another three-run jack to push the score to 10-2 and end any real hope of a Yankee comeback.

Britton gave up two more runs in the eighth, but saved the rest of the pen by finishing the game (3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K). Meanwhile, Xavier Nady, who is stinging the ball in blow-outs but still hitless as a Yankee when it matters, led off the seventh with a solo shot off Garland, then keyed a somewhat hopeless Yankee rally in the ninth with a lead-off single. The Yanks wound up scoring three runs off Darrens Oliver and O’Day in the ninth to make the 12-6 final look closer than the game actually was. Here’s hoping that rally carries over into tomorrow’s game.

In his Yankee debut, Ivan Rodriguez saw three Angels steal successfully against him and Pettitte and went 1 for 3 at the plate with a strikeout and a double play. Rodriguez’s one hit was a hard shot that Chone Figgins knocked down at third, but couldn’t gather in time to throw Rodriguez out. Pushed to third by a Cabrera single, Rodriguez made a deft baserunning play when Johnny Damon subsequently hit a comebacker that Darren Oliver juggled then threw wildly to second to force Melky. Rodriguez broke for home as soon as Oliver committed to his throw and made a nice outside slide around catcher Jeff Mathis, sticking his left hand in to touch home safely. The only problem is that home plate ump Ed Hickox completely blew the call, telling Rodriguez that he had missed the plate, and calling him out on a phantom 1-6-2 double play. Another bummer on a night full of them (I didn’t even mention the slack defense of Robinson Cano and Bobby Abreu, which stood in stark contrast to the play of the Angels, particularly Figgins . . . oh, I guess I just did).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2007 Record: 94-68 (.580)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 90-72 (.558)

2008 Record: 67-40 (.626)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 59-48 (.553)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Tony Reagins

Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Angel Stadium

Who’s Replaced Whom:

Mark Teixeira replaces Casey Kotchman
Torii Hunter replaces Orlando Cabrera
Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis take over most of Reggie Willits’ playing time
Juan Rivera (DL) replaces Shea Hillenbrand
Jeff Mathis inherits Jose Molina’s playing time
Ryan Budde (minors) is filling in for Mike Napoli (DL)
Jon Garland replaces Kelvim Escobar (DL)
Jose Arredondo replaces Dustin Moseley (minors)
Darren O’Day replaces Chris Bootcheck (minors)

25-man Roster:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Howie Kendrick (R)
SS – Maicer Izturis (S)
3B – Chone Figgins (S)
C – Jeff Mathis (R)
RF – Vladimir Guerraro (R)
CF – Torii Hunter (R)
LF – Garret Anderson (L)
DH – Juan Rivera (R)

Bench:

S – Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
S – Reggie Willits (OF)
S – Erick Aybar (IF)
R – Ryan Budde (C)

Rotation:

R – John Lackey
L – Joe Saunders
R – Jon Garland
R – Ervin Santana
R – Jered Weaver

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Scot Shields
R – Jose Arredondo
R – Justin Speier
L – Darren Oliver
R – Darren O’Day

15-day DL: R – Michael Napoli (C)
60-day DL: R – Kelvim Escobar

Typical Lineup:

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
S – Maicer Izturis (SS)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
R – Torii Hunter (CF)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Howie Kendrick (2B)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
R – Jeff Mathis (C)

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I have to hand it to Brian Cashman. For the past week, both before and after the Yankees’ acquisition of Damaso Marte, I’ve been going on about how the Yankees didn’t need another relief pitcher. It was a total waste of resources, so I argued, to trade for a reliever when the bullpen was already stacked, excelling, and backed up by major league ready reinforcements at triple-A. So what does Cashman do? He goes out and trades from that strength to fill the biggest hole on the ballclub by acquiring a legitimate starting catcher.

By now you’ve surely heard about the deal that has sent Kyle Farnsworth back to the Tigers for Ivan Rodriguez, but think of it this way: Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jose Tabata for Xavier Nady and Ivan Rodriguez. Suddenly that deal with Pittsburgh looks a whole lot better, doesn’t it?

Marte now replaces Farnsworth in the bullpen straight up, which has several benefits. First: no more Kyle Farnsworth. As well as Farnsworth had been pitching (2.84 ERA, 21 K in 19 IP since June 1 with a hidden no-hitter–9 IP, 0 H, 5 BB, 10 K–from June 27 to July 22), his home run rate on the season is still 2.23 HR/9, and he’s always a meatball or two away from both disaster and a return to his unreliable ways of all but the last two months of his Yankee career. To that end, the Yankees are selling high, which is what they should be doing with an inconsistent veteran like Farnsworth. If Farnsworth leaves any legacy as a Yankee, it might be that he finally got hot at exactly the right time. Second, removing Farnsworth increases the chances of Joe Girardi using Marte properly–that is, as a full-fledged set-up man who pitches for a full inning or more–rather than creating more work for his other relievers by using Marte as a LOOGY. Finally, replacing Farnsworth with Marte increases the variety of the relief corps. Both Farnsworth and seventh-inning guy Jose Veras are right-handers who throw straight cheese and sharp sliders. Replacing Farnsworth with the lefty Marte gives opponents yet another type of pitcher to contend with in addition to Veras, changeup specialist Edwar Ramirez, curveballer David Robertson, Dan Giese and his softer fastball/slider mix, and whomever winds up taking Chad Moeller’s spot on the roster tomorrow (then again, Brian Bruney is another straight cheese and sliders guy, but better to have two of those guys than three).

The final accounting on the Marte-Farnsworth substitution also works out pretty well. Their season numbers:

Farns: 3.65 ERA (113 ERA+), 44 IP, 43 K, 17 BB, 11 HR, 0 BS, 2 L
Marte: 3.67 ERA (114 ERA+), 49 IP, 51 K, 17 BB, 4 HR, 2 BS, 0 L

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Last night Mike Mussina had nothing, David Robertson had less, and the Yankee offense apparently missed the plane home from Boston. After five and a half innings, the Yankees had put just three men on base against Jeremy Guthrie on a single (promptly erased by a Derek Jeter double play), a walk, and a hit-by-pitch. The Orioles, meanwhile, had scored 11 runs off Mussina and Robertson, the key hits being consecutive second-inning home runs by Kevin Millar and Ramon Hernandez and an RBI triple by Adam Jones in the fifth off Mussina and a grand slam by Jones off Robertson (the first home run Robertson has allowed in his 148 1/3 professional innings) in the sixth.

The Yankees finally mounted a threat with two outs in the sixth, loading the bases on another single, another walk, and another hit-by-pitch, but Guthrie struck out Jason Giambi to end the inning. Xavier Nady finally broke through with a solo homer in the seventh, his first Yankee hit and Guthrie’s last pitch of the night. Johnny Damon added a three-run shot off reliever Lance Cormier later in the inning, but that was all the Yankees would get, while the O’s would tag on two more in the eighth on a two-run jack by Aubrey Huff off Kyle Farnsworth. Final score: 13-4.

The big news of the night, however, was word that, after conferring with the team, Jorge Posada has decided to have his shoulder surgery. Both Posada and Brian Cashman indicated that the acquisition of Nady was what allowed them to finally make that decision, which is a not insignificant mark in that trade’s favor. “As difficult as it is,” Posada said in a statement, “I can focus on coming back 100 percent for next season instead of coming back at less than that now.” Said Brian Cashman, “It’s just the obvious way to go.”

In other injury news, Hideki Matsui donned a new knee brace and took 20 swings off a tee followed by five swings against soft toss. He’s hoping to be able to start a rehab assignment in a week or two. Phil Hughes and Carl Pavano (yes, I said it) were scheduled to pitch two innings a piece for the Gulf Coast League Yankees last night, but the game was rained out. They’ll try again tonight with low-A Charleston. Also, Shelley Duncan is taking batting practice in Tampa, and Eric Milton is scheduled to throw batting practice.

In minor league news, Alan Horne came off the DL to pitch for Scranton last night and got lit up. Chris Britton and Brian Bruney both pitched in relief. Britton allowed two of the runners he inherited from Horne to score, but didn’t allow any runs of his own over three innings while striking out five. Bruney threw one pitch, hit former Yankee farmhand Randy Ruiz in the back of the head, and got ejected. Also, Mark Melancon and Chase Wright have been promoted to triple-A, lefty reliever Wilkins Arias has been promoted to double-A, and Steven White’s fall continues as he’s been demoted to double-A Trenton.

Having had their eight-game winning streak snapped last night by a lop-sided loss to the Red Sox, the Yankees have to be careful not to suffer a let-down against the lowly Orioles tonight. Being back at the Stadium and having Mike Mussina on the mound should help with that. Moose has a 1.41 ERA over his last five starts and has struck out 31 against just three walks and no homers in that stretch. Then again, his one start against his former team this season was one of the worst of his career as he was unable to compensate for a first-inning error by Derek Jeter and wound up allowing seven runs and getting the hook before the O’s made their third out.

He takes on Jeremy Guthrie, who has been far and away the O’s best starter this year. Guthrie has alternated starts of four or more runs allowed and starts of two or fewer runs allowed since June 7, but hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a game since March. If the pattern holds, he’ll allow four or more tonight, but we saw how well that worked with Jon Lester last night.

The Orioles lost their last series in the Bronx 2-1, but are 4-2 against the Yankees in Baltimore. The Yanks haven’t seen the Orioles since late May, but the team hasn’t changed much. They’ve rotated through a number of replacement-level shortstops, most recently settling on Juan Castro, but the rest of the lineup remains the same. The O’s do have a nine-man bullpen right now (along with a three-man bench and a four-man rotation following the recent demotion of Radhames Liz), but they’ve made no notable additions to their relief corps.

The top of the O’s lineup is solid with Brian Roberts now being followed by Adam Jones (a singles-heavy .305/.344/.416 since late May, but already starting to make the Erik Bedard trade look good for Baltimore), Nick Markakis, and a rejuvenated Aubrey Huff (.293/.354/.533 with 20 homers on the season). In fact, the O’s have six players in double-digits in home runs (Huff, Luke Scott with 18, Markakis and fifth-place hitter Melvin Mora with 15, Yankee Killer Kevin Millar with 14, and catcher Ramon Hernandez with 11). Of course, Mora and Hernandez have done very little beyond hit home runs, but Scott and Millar add some extra pop and patience in the six and seven holes. Huff’s the real threat, though. Always something of a second-half hitter, he’s hit .348/.400/.626 since June 1 and something very close to that since the second half began. Expect to see Joe Girardi deploy Damaso Marte against him as Huff loses more than 200 points of OPS when a lefty is on the mound. I just hope Girardi has the good sense to use Marte for more than just that one hitter.

No surprises in the lineup tonight with a righty on the mound and Xavier Nady having settled in as the left-fielder and seventh-place hitter, nor on the transaction wire.

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As expected, the Red Sox got the merry-go-round cranked up early against Sidney Ponson last night, scoring three in the first and bouncing the Yankee starter after four innings having scored in each of them. After the game Ponson admirably admitted that he “pitched like crap.”

It was 7-0 Bosox heading into the top of the fifth when the Yankees finally got something going against Jon Lester, who had pitched 13 straight scoreless innings against them to that point. Melky Cabrera, Jose Molina, and Johnny Damon all singled to start the inning. With the bases loaded Derek Jeter, who hit into a rally-killing double play with men on first and second and none out in the third, hit a dribbler up the third base line that stayed fair allowing everyone to move up safely. Bobby Abreu followed by drawing an RBI walk. That brought Alex Rodriguez to the plate with none out, the bases loaded, and a chance to get the Yankees back in a game they were now trailing 7-2. On an 1-0 pitch, Lester came inside to Rodriguez and Alex ripped a line drive right at Mike Lowell at third base for the first out, holding the runners. Xavier Nady, who has started his Yankee career by going 0 for 7 with a walk and a hit-by-pitch, followed by getting under a 2-0 pitch up in the zone and flying out to center (while the ball wasn’t deep, Johnny Damon likely could have tagged up and scored, only he didn’t). Robinson Cano also started off 2-0, but swung through ball three high and tapped back to Lester to strand all three runners.

And that was that. The Red Sox pitchers faced the minimum the rest of the way, as the one Yankee baserunner (a leadoff single by Rodriguez in the eighth off reliever Manny Delcarmen) was erased when Xavier Nady ground into a double play. Meanwhile, Dan Giese, who helpfully pitched the final four innings, allowed two more runs in the sixth to push the final score to 9-2.

So the Yankees eight-game winning streak is a thing of the past, but we all saw this loss coming. The Yankees did what they had to do in Boston, which was win the series. They’re now two games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card and three behind the Rays in the East. Their task now is to avoid a let-down against the Orioles tonight. Hopefully coming back home to the Bronx and having Mike Mussina on the mound will help with that.

Here’s what I wrote about tonight’s pitching matchup in my series preview on Friday:

ESPN’s Sunday night game pits Sidney Ponson against Jon Lester. Lester is one of the great stories of this season, having rebounded from non-Hodgkins lymphoma to not only throw a no-hitter, but have a great season overall. Lester has a 3.20 ERA on the season, a 2.93 ERA at home, and needed just 105 pitches to shutout the Yankees on five hits and two walks while striking out eight in his only start against the Bombers this season. That said, he’s been inconsistent of late. Lester’s no-hitter came in the middle of a run of 11 starts from the end of April to late June in which the lefty posted a 2.13 ERA. Since then, however, he’s alternated dominant starts (including his shutout of the Yankees) with non-quality outings. If the pattern holds, he’s due for a stinker, but his dominance of the Yankees in their last meeting and overall success this season is the better indicator of what he’s likely to do Sunday night.

That means Ponson has his work cut out for him. Before his last start, I wrote that Ponson’s surprisingly successful season has been the result of a sharp increase in his groundball rate. The problem is that Fenway Park has a notoriously hard infield, which can cause trouble for groundball pitchers (Chien-Ming Wang’s career ERA at Fenway is 5.11, and in his complete-game two-hitter there this April, he got more outs in the air than on the ground). Ponson hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year, but historically, the Sox’s lineup owns him (David Ortiz: .444/.563/.722; Manny Ramirez: .404/.481/.511; Jason Varitek: .317/.364/.561; Kevin Youkilis: 4 for 9 with a double; J.D. Drew: 3 for 7 with a double; Dustin Pedroia: 3 for 3), the only exception being Mike Lowell, who is 0 for 7 with a walk against Ponson. Lester would have to implode completely for the Yankees to overcome what’s likely to happen to Ponson on Sunday night.

That means the Yankees hopes for a series win lie in the first two games . . .

Everything’s gone according to plan thus far. The Yankees got a dominant outing from Joba Chamberlain on Friday night and a quality start from Andy Pettitte buoyed by ten runs of support yesterday to take the first two games and thus the series, but with them having done that, pushing their second-half record to a perfect 9-0 and closing their deficit to the Red Sox in the Wild Card race to just one game . . . doesn’t it seem possible that they just mind find away to win tonight despite all of what I said above?

Here’s another question: If on Opening Day I told you that, on the final weekend in July, Yankees would be on the verge of a three-game sweep at Fenway that would tie them with the Red Sox in the standings, and that the lineup they were running out in an attempt to win that game featured Xavier Nady, Richie Sexson, Jose Molina, and Sidney Ponson in place of Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada, and either Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, or Ian Kennedy, (or anyone else, really), what would your reaction have been? Elation? Disgust? Confusion? Frustration? Shock? Concern?

The game’s being threatened by rain, but if it’s the storm that passed through New Jersey this afternoon, it won’t last too long. Given the ESPN start time and the team’s involved, any kind of delay at the start should push the end of the game well past midnight.

While we all work to process the Xavier Nady trade (my analysis of the deal as initially reported here, my thoughts on the reconfigured deal in several comments starting here), the Yankees have a game to win. Joba did his part last night, time for Andy and the offense to step up this afternoon.

As for the reinforcements from Pittsburgh, I expect they won’t arrive until tomorrow at the earliest as everyone needs to take physicals to make the trade official, but with the bullpen largely rested, the Yankees won’t miss Marte (not that they really need him in the first place), and it’s probably best to let Nady take his first Yankee at-bats against the lefty Lester tomorrow rather than against Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball this afternoon.

Proof that Brian Cashman reads this blog:

Thursday I posted a rant that, among other things, said the Yankees shouldn’t waste their resources by trading for a relief pitcher and that they should stay away from Xavier Nady.

Friday, the Yankees traded four minor leaguers to the Pirates for lefty relief pitcher Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady.

Here’s the wacky part: I don’t hate the trade.

The thing is, the Yankees didn’t really give up anyone they couldn’t afford to lose. The four minor leaguers headed to Pittsburgh are pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke, and George Kontos, and outfielder Jose Tabata.

The names that jump out on that list are Ohlendorf’s and Tabata’s, so let’s dispose of the other two first. Coke is a lefty starter who has dominated in double-A over the last three months. That sounds like a lot to give up, but he just turned 26 and this is his first year above A-ball. What’s more, despite his success in the offense-suppressing environment in Trenton, there’s simply no room for him in Scranton, where the rotation consists of Ian Kennedy, Daniel McCutchen, Alfredo Aceves, Jeff Karstens and . . . well, Kei Igawa, but only because Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, and Phil Hughes (who Brian Cashman recently said would be optioned after being officially activated from his current rehab assignment) are on the DL. George Kontos is three years younger than Coke, but he’s right-handed, hadn’t pitched as well in Trenton, and is similarly blocked by the organizational gridlock forming around the Scranton rotation. Besides, as young as the 23-year-old Kontos is, Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are younger, and Kennedy and Marquez are less than a year older, meaning the Yankees already have four right-handed starters his age ahead of him in the organization.

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The Yankees’ current six-game winning streak has been extremely fruitful. By sweeping the A’s and Twins, the Yanks have surged into second place in the Wild Card race and enter this weekend’s three-game series against the Red Sox just three games behind both the Sox and the Rays in the AL East. Another sweep would put them in a tie with Boston for second place in the east and the Wild Card lead. A 2-1 series loss, however, would put them four games behind Boston, as many as five games behind the Rays (who play the Royals this weekend), and could even drop them back behind the Twins (who play the Indians). It’s thus imperative that the Yankees at the very least take two of three this weekend. The question is: can they do it?

Let’s look at the pitching match-ups first. The Yankees have two of their best starters going in the first two games. Joba Chamberlain, who starts tonight, has a 2.41 ERA over his last seven starts, including a quality start against the Red Sox at the Stadium three weeks ago. Andy Pettitte has a 2.18 ERA over his last eight starts, but the one real dud in that stretch came at home against the Sox (4 2/3 IP, 6 R). Both have been better on the road than at home, but neither has pitched at Fenway this season.

Opposing Joba tonight will be Josh Beckett, who is one of the few Red Sox pitchers who has pitched worse at home than on the road. Beckett has a 4.82 ERA at Fenway this year and gave up five runs in five innings to the Twins in his last home start two turns ago. At the same time, he’s already turned in three quality starts against the Yanks this year, including one at Fenway in April, though he has allowed the maximum three runs in each of those starts for a 3.92 ERA against the Bombers.

Tim Wakefield, who faces Pettitte tomorrow afternoon on FOX, has a 3.04 ERA at Fenway and a 2.43 ERA over his last ten starts, including a quality start at the Stadium that left Chamberlain with yet another no-decision.

The finale, which will be ESPN’s Sunday night game, pits Sidney Ponson against Jon Lester. Lester is one of the great stories of this season, having rebounded from non-Hodgkins lymphoma to not only throw a no-hitter, but have a great season overall. Lester has a 3.20 ERA on the season, a 2.93 ERA at home, and needed just 105 pitches to shutout the Yankees on five hits and two walks while striking out eight in his only start against the Bombers this season. That said, he’s been inconsistent of late. Lester’s no-hitter came in the middle of a run of 11 starts from the end of April to late June in which the lefty posted a 2.13 ERA. Since then, however, he’s alternated dominant starts (including his shutout of the Yankees) with non-quality outings. If the pattern holds, he’s due for a stinker, but his dominance of the Yankees in their last meeting and overall success this season is the better indicator of what he’s likely to do Sunday night.

That means Ponson has his work cut out for him. Before his last start, I wrote that Ponson’s surprisingly successful season has been the result of a sharp increase in his groundball rate. The problem is that Fenway Park has a notoriously hard infield, which can cause trouble for groundball pitchers (Chien-Ming Wang’s career ERA at Fenway is 5.11, and in his complete-game two-hitter there this April, he got more outs in the air than on the ground). Ponson hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year, but historically, the Sox’s lineup own him (David Ortiz: .444/.563/.722; Manny Ramirez: .404/.481/.511; Jason Varitek: .317/.364/.561; Kevin Youkilis: 4 for 9 with a double; J.D. Drew: 3 for 7 with a double; Dustin Pedroia: 3 for 3), the only exception being Mike Lowell, who is 0 for 7 with a walk against Ponson. Lester would have to implode completely for the Yankees to overcome what’s likely to happen to Ponson on Sunday night.

That means the Yankees hopes for a series win lie in the first two games, both of which have the potential to be tightly-contested pitchers’ duels. The Yankees scored 25 runs in their three-game sweep of the Twins and are averaging 6.3 runs per game since the All-Star break, but the Twins helped out with some sloppy and absent-minded play in the field, and the Bomber bats struggled to solve Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer in the A’s series, as the Yankees won both games by just one run thanks in large part to strong pitching performances from Chamberlain, Pettitte, and the bullpen. That pattern may have to repeat itself in order for the Yankees to win these first two games.

The good news is that the Red Sox aren’t scoring. While the Yankees scored 25 runs in the Twins series alone, the Red Sox have scored just 22 runs since the All-Star break, an average of 3.67 per game. They opened the second half by getting swept in Anaheim with Beckett and Wakefield receiving two and three runs of support, respectively. They then swept the Mariners in Seattle, but averaged just 3.67 runs per game during regulation in that series, requiring extra innings to pull out the finale.

The bad news is that the Sox just activated David Ortiz off the disabled list, which could give their offense the jump-start it needs. Manny Ramirez, despite the affront of his flopping-fish routine in Anahiem, has hit .471/.609/.765 since the break, giving Ortiz the protection he’ll need to get back in the groove. Still, one wonders what lingering effects, if any, will Ortiz’s wrist injury have on his swing. The Yankees haven’t really had to sweat Ortiz yet this year. He’s was on the DL during their most recent series against the Red Sox, and when they faced him in April, he was slumping horribly. Ortiz went 1-for-17 against the Yankees in April, his only time on base coming via a single. At the end of that stretch, he was hitting .111/.222/.159 on the season. Starting the next day and leading up to his injury, however, he was back to his old tricks, hitting .313/.408/.626.

So the question is, will Ortiz come off the DL as hot as he was when he went on it, or will he have to fight through a repeat of those April doldrums in order to get back in the swing? The discouraging news is that Ortiz hit .313/.450/.875 with three home runs in his recent five-game rehab assignment. Less discouraging is the fact that nearly all of that, including all three home runs, came in Double-A.

It’s up to Joba to get Ortiz off on the wrong foot and the Yankees on the right foot tonight in what will be the biggest start of his admittedly very young career as a major league starting pitcher, and up to the Yankee bats to reward him for doing so by getting to Josh Beckett early. (Seriously, can we get this kid another win already?)

As for the Yankees chances of taking the series, the Red Sox have a 13-2 record in series at Fenway this year (including a 2-1 series win over the Yankees in April) and a staggering .766 winning percentage in home games. They’ve scored just 4.34 runs per game on the road, but 5.83 R/G at home, while the Yankees have scored just 4.33 runs per game on the road. That alone tilts the odds against the New York nine, but I think Chamberlain and Pettitte can get the job done. The only question is if the offense has built enough confidence and momentum to finish the job. I sure hope so.

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Just received via email:

Dear Yankees Ticket Licensee,

We have reached another important milestone in our move from Yankee Stadium to the new Yankee Stadium across the street. Your Relocation Program Guide for the New Yankee Stadium (the “Guide”) is in the process of being printed and you can expect to receive your Guide in the near future. The Guide will outline the seat relocation program, explain the criteria to be used to assign seat locations, detail ticket prices and ticket license options, and serve as your introduction to the new Yankee Stadium.

I’m expecting a rude introduction as the Yankees Guide me out of the room. Anyone have a reason to think different?

With the trade deadline looming and a lot of silly rumors floating around, I have a few things to say:

1) The Yankees don’t need a relief pitcher, left-handed or otherwise. Brian Bruney should return from his rehab assignment soon to force LaTroy Hawkins off the roster, and if he’s not as good as he was in April, there’s more in triple-A where he came from. The Yankees trading for a relief pitcher would be like heating a house in the desert, a total waste of resources.

2) Getting Jarod Washburn in a salary dump would be a coup. Washburn has a 2.65 ERA in his last eight starts and has strong career numbers at Yankee Stadium (2.82 ERA), Fenway Park (3.60 ERA), and the Trop (1.89 ERA, which is impressive no matter how bad the Rays have been during his career). More recent versions of this rumor have the Yankees forcing Kei Igawa on the Mariners and the M’s countering with Jose Vidro. A great as it would be to be rid of Igawa, Vidro’s not worth it. His hitting rates this season are nearly an exact match for Jose Molina’s, except Vidro has had a hundred more at-bats. He’s as done as a player can be.

3) The Yankees biggest need is another bat. They’re a pitching-rich organization, and Cellophane Rasner and Groundhog Ponson can hold their own as fourth and fifth starters until the reinforcements are ready (which could include a healthy Chien-Ming Wang and Phil Hughes). Next year’s rotation will be filled by Wang, Chamberlain, the free-agent market (possibly including one-year deals for Mussina and/or Pettitte), and emergent prospects (Hughes, Kennedy, McCutchen, Aceves). Rather, the Yankees’ big holes this offseason will be right field and at first base, only one of which is likely to be filled by free agency. More urgently, even with Abreu and Giambi still in place, the bottom of the order is Betemit/Sexson, Cabrera, Molina, which just won’t do. The price on Matt Holliday, who nearly won the NL MVP award last year, is likely too high, but Jason Bay, who had an off-year in 2007 due to knee problems and didn’t even make the All-Star team this year (though he should have) could be more reasonably priced and could even be the better player (Bay is Holliday’s second most similar player on Baseball-Reference, followed by Hideki Matsui who also makes Bay’s list, and is easily the better hitter on the road). Buying high on Xavier Nady, however, seems like a bad move. Nady is 29 and a career .281/.336/.455 hitter in the National League. That’s not nothing, but it’s not much more than league-average, and his career line in inter-league play is .224/.290/.388. Stay away.

4) Jorge Posada should get over himself and have his surgery now. Yes, the Yankees’ biggest need is a bat, even if it’s one that can only DH, but it seems doubtful that Posada will be able to hit for power without the surgery. Even more than that, the Yankees need Posada to be healthy, productive, and behind the plate five days a week starting on Opening Day 2009, so that they don’t find themselves in this position again next year. Any further delay on Jorge’s part is robbing Peter to pay Paul, and Peter’s gonna be pissed when he finds out about it. Let Hideki Matsui be the guy playing Hamlet over his MRIs and get Posada under the knife pronto.

Glad I could get all that off my chest.

The Yankees opened the second-half of the 2008 season by sweeping the Oakland A’s, passing them in the Wild Card standings as a result. With their 5-1 win over the Twins this afternoon, they’ve swept Minnesota and passed them in the Wild Card standings as well.

Today’s game was scoreless through four and a half innings and none of the five baserunners to that point got past first base. Robinson Cano became the first man to reach second in the bottom of the fifth when he and Melky Cabrera both singled with one out. Jose Molina then hit into what looked like an inning-ending double play ball to third base, but second baseman Alexi Casilla thought there already were two outs in the inning and, rather than making the pivot to double up the sluggish Molina, took Brendan Harris’s throw while running across the bag and started to head into the dugout. Casilla realized his mistake when Twins starter Glen Perkins started cursing him out through clenched teeth, but it was too late; The Yankees had an extra out and they made the most of it when Justin Christian, starting against the lefty Perkins, shot a low and inside pitch down the third base line for a two-run double into the left-field coerner that plated Molina all the way from first base.

That was all Mike Mussina needed as he turned in his best start of the season by pitching eight shutout innings while striking out seven and allowing just six baserunners (all on hits). The Yankees added a three-spot against Perkins in the sixth and LaTroy Hawkins coughed one up while attempting to wrap things up in the ninth (“forcing” Joe Girardi to call in Mariano Rivera for the final out).

The Yanks have scored 6.3 runs per game since the break while allowing just two runs per game. They are now a game ahead of the Twins, four ahead of the A’s, and are headed to Boston for a three-game series trailing the Red Sox for the Wild Card lead by just three games (with the division-leading Rays just another half game ahead of them).

There’s no crying in baseball, and rather than sit around and mope about having likely lost Jorge Posada for the year, the Yankees went out and put a whuppin’ on the Twins, winning the game in this series that they seemed least likely to win on paper, 12-4.

Sidney Ponson wasn’t great, but got more groundballs (9) than flyballs (6) and held the Twins to three runs over 5 2/3 innings thanks to a sixth-inning assist from Edwar Ramirez. That left room for the offense to do it’s thing. Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez got things going with two outs in the bottom of the first with a single and a bomb into the Yankee bullpen. Ponson promptly gave those two runs back, but in the bottom of the second the Yankees blew things open with a barrage of singles and some help from some sloppy Twins defense.

The rally got started with one out when Twins shortstop Brendan Harris made an unnecessary dive to stop a Melky Cabrera grounder to the left of second base and then couldn’t get a handle on the ball to make the throw, allowing Cabrera to reach (headfirst, to the aggravation of many) with an infield single. Legitimate singles by Jose Molina and Brett Gardner then loaded the bases. Johnny Damon followed by hitting a potential double-play ball to second, but Alexi Casilla, perhaps thinking the ball was a bit to slow to turn two, threw home, short-hopping catcher Joe Mauer, and allowing all the runners to advance safely. A single by Derek Jeter plated another run, and Bobby Abreu beat the relay on another possible double play to make it 5-2 Yankees. Alex Rodriguez then singled off the glove of third baseman Brian Buscher to push it to 6-2 and drive Twins starter Nick Blackburn (unfairly, in my opinion) from the game.

After reliever Boof Bonser struck out Jason Giambi to end the rally and Sidney Ponson retired the Twins in order, Robinson Cano led off the bottom of the third by wrapping a towering home run around the right field foul pole and well into the upper deck to make it 7-2. Melky Cabrera then reached on his second infield single in as many at-bats (this one off Bonser’s ankle) and was later plated by a Johnny Damon flare into no-man’s land in shallow left that hopped into the stands for a ground-rule double.

Things were quite for a while after that. The Twins picked up their third run in the fifth when Jason Kubel followed what looked like a rally-killing double play with an RBI single. The Yanks then went back to work in the sixth against reliever Craig Breslow. Derek Jeter led off with an opposite-field home run into the front rows of section 37 of the right-field bleachers. Bobby Abreu then singled, moved to second on a balk that initially looked like a successful pickoff, then moved to third and scored on a pair of wild pitches. The latter moved Alex Rodriguez, who had walked on the first, to second where he was able to score on a Cano single. The Yanks made it an even dozen in the eighth and the Twins picked up a run against LaTroy Hawkins (who could lose his bullpen spot to Brian Bruney by the end of the week) in the ninth.

With Posada back on the DL, Jose Molina went 3 for 4 with a run scored. In his first game off the DL, Johnny Damon went 1 for 4 with that flared RBI double and a run scored. Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera stayed hot, going a combined 4 for 10 (though neither of Melky’s two hits left the infield, while Cano’s homer nearly left the earth’s gravitational pull). Jeter, Abreu, and Rodriguez went a combined 6 for 12 with a pair of homers and 6 RBIs. Even Brett Gardner got a hit (1 for 4). Only Jason Giambi failed to pick up a safety, though he did walk. Giambi is 2 for 7 since the break, but has six walks in that span for a .615 on-base percentage.

The Yankees are now just a game behind the Twins for second place in the Wild Card chase, and stand a decent chance of sweeping their way into Boston this weekend. Not bad considering how the evening began.

Having opened the second-half by sweeping the A’s, the Yankees are now just three games out in the Wild Card picture, but they’re still in third place. The next team on the ladder is the one coming to town for the next three nights: the Minnesota Twins. The Twins just took two of three from the Rangers, but with the Yankees’ sweep, that closed the gap between the two teams to two games. With another sweep, the Yankees could take second place in the Wild Card chase, and the next team on ladder, the slumping Boston Red Sox (they were just swept by the Angels), are the next on the schedule.

The problem is that, having burned their top three pitchers against the A’s, the Yanks are left with Sidney Ponson (tonight) and Darrell Rasner (tomorrow) starting two of three games against Minnesota. Also, despite sweeping the A’s, the Yankees only scored four runs during regulation during the last two games. Meanwhile, the Twins’ rotation is deeper, and their worst starter, Livan Hernandez, won’t pitch in this series. Still, taking two of three would bring the Yankees within one game of the Twins, and with Mussina pitching on Wednesday and Minnesota’s Tuesday night starter, Kevin Slowey, having allowed 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings over his last two starts, a series win is well within reach.

Tonight, the Yankees send Ponson against Nick Blackburn. Blackburn pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees on June 1–when the Yanks and Twins were in the midst of splitting a four-game set at the Metrodome–but was forced to leave the game when a comebacker off Bobby Abreu’s bat broke his nose. Blackburn struggled in his next start (which he did make), but has a 3.05 ERA since then with five quality starts in six tries, and a 1.74 ERA over his last three starts, in which he’s walked just three and allowed just one home run.

Amazingly, Ponson has allowed just one run total in two of his three Yankee starts, shutting out the Mets for six innings on June 27, and holding the first-place Rays to one run over six frames in his last start before the All-Star break. Ponson’s 3.96 ERA on the season is something of a shocker, but there’s something real behind it. Much like LaTroy Hawkins did in Colorado last year, Ponson’s been getting the job done with an unprecedented (for him) groundball rate. Ponson had never had a GB/FB rate over 2.00 before this year, but his 2008 mark thus far is 2.42 (by comparison, Chien-Ming Wang’s career GB/FB rate is 2.78). Ponson’s one dud start as a Yankee saw him allow eight fly balls against five grounders, but in his two quality Yankee starts, he’s induced 23 grounders to just 6 fly balls. It will take a great deal more of those starts for me to have any sort of faith in Ponson, but at least there’s some legitimate and repeatable reason for the success he’s had this season. That means it’s not a fluke; he might have actually figured something out with his sinker. . . and now that I’ve said that, he’ll stink up the joint tonight.

All of the above is further complicated by the news this afternoon that Jorge Posada’s shoulder has forced him back to the DL and could require season-ending surgery (as opposed to the offseason surgery that was expected). Posada only played in two of the games against the A’s, only caught one (in which he was removed for defensive replacement Jose Molina when the A’s started running on him late in that game), and only had one hit (a single), but he got on base four times in nine trips.

Johnny Damon returns from the DL to take Posada’s roster spot tonight, but he’s starting out slow by DHing. Jason Giambi plays first. Betemit and Sexson will wait for the key moment to pinch hit for catcher Molina or left fielder Brett Gardner. Surprisingly, given Posada’s inability to catch with any frequency of late, the team could actually be improved by swapping Posada for Damon, assuming Damon’s able to return to the outfield in short order. With Damon in the lineup in place of Gardner and the Sexson/Betemit platoon in place of Posada, the Yankees could upgrade from Posada’s production to Damon’s, Gardner’s to Sexson/Betemit’s, and Molina’s to Molina/Moeller’s while hoping Cano can stay hot and gaining depth on the bench by dropping down to two catchers, giving them power (the inactive member of the Sexson/Betemit platoon), and speed and defense (Gardner and Christian for now, who can run for the catchers or sub into the outfield corners late in close games the Yankees are leading) in reserve. Swapping out one of the speedsters for Alberto Gonzalez in order to increase position flexibility would only make the bench deeper.

How’s that for shining up a turd?

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Having started things off right with their first-half ace last night, the Yankees give the ball to the man they hope will be their second-half ace this afternoon, Joba Chamberlain. As a full-fledgedstarter, Joba has a 2.57 ERA in 35 innings with 38 strikeouts and just 32 hits (only five of which have gone for extra bases as opponents are slugging .302 against him). His 4.11 BB/9 remains a small concern, but he didn’t walk anyone in his last start, which saw him strike out nine in 6 2/3 innings (108 pitches). The Yankees are 4-2 in Joba’s six full-length starts, but Joba is only 1-1, both the result of the fact that Chamberlain has received more than two runs of support just twice in those six outings.

Perhaps concerned about wasting a Justin Duchscherer start by pitching him against Chamberlain, the A’s have moved their remaining ace to tomorrow’s game and will instead start Sean Gallagher, the pitcher obtained from the Cubs in the Rich Harden deal. Like Joba, Gallagher is a 22-year-old righty who’s built like a brick shithouse (both are 6’2″ and roughly 230 pounds). Unlike Joba, Gallagher doesn’t have overwhelming stuff. Still, there are a lot of things to like about Gallagher. He dominated the Angels in his first AL start (7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K). In 11 major league starts dating back to May 11 of this year, he has a 4.23 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, solid numbers for a 22-year-old rookie starter. Even more impressive, he has allowed just five home runs in those 11 starts and none in his four starts at Wrigley Field. Opponents are hitting just .235/.314/.385 against him and he doesn’t show much in the way of a platoon split. Perhaps most importantly, Gallagher hasn’t had any real disaster starts. His shortest outing after his first start has been 4 2/3 innings, and he’s never allowed more than five runs in a game.

Jorge Posada is back behind the plate, clearing room for Jason Giambi at DH and Wilson Betemit, who appears to be Richie Sexson’s platoon parter, at first base. The A’s, meanwhile, have made a few roster moves that have made my series preview out of date. Bobby Crosby was activated before yesterday’s game. He returns to shortstop with Donnie Murphy riding pine and Gregorio Petit getting optioned to Sacramento. Today, first baseman Daric Barton was place on the DL with a strained neck and Wes Bankston was recalled to play first. Finally, it is lefty Lenny DiNardo who will wind up taking Joe Blanton’s spot in the rotation, making fellow southpaw Dallas Braden, who gave up Alex Rodriguez’s home run yesterday, the replacement for Chad Gaudin in the bullpen.

Everything the Yankees needed to go right in their first game of the second half of the season did. Mike Mussina pitched six innings of one-run ball, the bullpen pitched three innings of perfect relief, and the offense got in gear, dropping a seven-spot on the A’s. As a result, the Yankees pulled even with Oakland in the AL Wild Card picture and gained a game on the Red Sox (thanks to the Angels who beat up on Clay Buchholz; not cooperating: the Rays, who beat A.J. Burnett 2-1).

Mussina scattered nine hits, walked none, struck out six, and threw 69 percent of just 93 pitches for strikes. David Robertson struck out the side on twelve pitches (all but one strikes) in the seventh. Edwar Ramirez threw nine of 11 pitches for strikes while striking out two in a perfect eighth. Even LaTroy Hawkins was dominant, getting two groundouts on his first four pitches, then striking out pinch-hitter Matt Murton to end the game.

As for the offense, new addition Richie Sexson got the Yankees on the board in his first pinstriped at-bat by plating Bobby Abreu from second with a single up the middle off A’s lefty starter Greg Smith. Sexson struck out with two on and one out in his second at-bat in the third, but Robinson Cano picked him up with a game-breaking three-run homer. The Yanks then tacked on two more in the fourth on a Derek Jeter walk, a Bobby Abreu RBI double, and an RBI single from Alex Rodriguez, all of which came with two outs. A sixth-inning Alex Rodriguez homer off Dallas Braden pushed the final score to 7-1 Yanks.

Sexson’s final tally was 1 for 3 with a walk, an RBI, a strikeout, and a double play. Abreu, Cano, and Melky Cabrera combined to go 6 for 13, each contributing a single and an extra-base hit. Alex Rodriguez went 3 for 4 with two RBIs, two runs scored (as well as a loud out at the plate on a reckless, first-inning-ending send by Bobby Meacham), a home run, and a stolen base. Derek Jeter and designated hitter Jorge Posada combined to walk five times in nine trips. Jose Molina and Brett Gardner combined to go 0 for 8, each with a strikeout (at least they were hitting eighth and ninth). Molina and Gardner (and that pesky Rays win) may have been the only things that didn’t go right for the Yankees last night.

As the second-half begins, the surprising A’s are a game ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card race and, like the Yankees, are six games behind in their division. Oakland’s success to this point has been almost entirely due to its pitching and defense, the latter of which boasts the best defensive efficiency in baseball. True, the A’s get a big boost in run prevention from their home park, but only the Braves have allowed fewer runs per game on the road, which isn’t the best news for the Yankee offense, which really needs to hit the ground running in the second half.

Continuing to rebuild despite their unexpected run, the A’s have, in the last ten days, traded three of their top six pitchers by innings pitched. Joe Blanton, who was dealt to the Phillies yesterday for a trio of minor leaguers, is no big loss. His 4.96 ERA was the worst on the staff and the worst in the A’s rotation by nearly a run and a half. Twenty-four-year-old lefty Dallas Braden, who had a rough rookie season last year but has continued to pitch well at triple-A, should be able to replace Blanton in the rotation with little difficulty.

Less clear-cut was the earlier deal that sent fragile ace Rich Harden and swing man Chad Gaudin to the Cubs. I understand why the A’s traded Harden. Though immensely talented, Harden has been unable to stay healthy. After an injury-shortened 2005 campaign, he made just 13 starts in the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined and missed more than a month at the beginning of this season with a shoulder strain. After returning from the DL, however, he dominated over 11 starts (2.59 ERA, 77 K in 66 IP), and Billy Beane cashed him in while he was still healthy. I get that. After losing all of that time to injury, Harden is now 26 and starting to get expensive (the long-term deal he signed before the 2005 season pays him $4.5 million this year and has a $7 million option for 2009). I get that. What I don’t get is the fact that Beane also included Chad Gaudin in the deal and only got back two aging prospects and one young low-risk/low-reward pitcher.

That’s not to make Gaudin out to be something he’s not. He’s a short, 25-year-old righthander with a league-average career ERA, who fell something short of that in his only full season as a starter last year. Gaudin’s also in his arbitration years. Still, given his innings-eater/swing-man role, he’s unlikely to get terribly expensive (he settled for $1.775 million this past winter). Thus, Gaudin was an established and affordable major league arm that could have served as a safety net for younger starting options such as Braden or Gio Gonzalez (part of the Nick Swisher swag) as the A’s continue to try to establish their next generation of starters.

The pitcher obtained from the Cubs, 22-year-old righty Sean Gallagher, who will pitch Sunday, replaces Harden in the rotation, but he was merely average in ten starts for the Cubs, and despite his youth, isn’t projected to get much better than that (though he did ace his A’s debut: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K). In making that swap, Beane was trading fragile brilliance for ordinary dependability.

Still, it could well pay off for him. Harden could go Mark Prior on the Cubs and their pitcher-hating manager, Lou Piniella, in which case Beane will have upgraded from Gaudin to Gallagher and gotten a couple of useful pieces for his trouble. And Matt Murton and Eric Patterson are useful pieces. Unused in Chicago, Murton has gone straight into the A’s lineup as their left fielder. Once the Red Sox prospect who accompanied Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs in that famous three-way deadline deal in 2004, Murton is now 26, but still a high-on-base righty slugger, and the A’s are likely hoping he’ll become another Jack Cust if given proper exposure. Fact is, Murton could be better than Cust, as he’s younger, hits for a better average, and doesn’t strike out nearly as much.

Patterson, meanwhile, receives high marks for his well-rounded offensive game, but his cumulative offensive value is such that his ultimate position will have a great deal of impact on his overall worth. A poor defensive second baseman, Patterson could wind up in the outfield like his older brother Corey, but the A’s have him at the keystone in triple-A, and likely envision him as a replacement for pending free agent Mark Ellis. A career .303/.366/.475 hitter in the minors who will steal 20-plus bags a year at a decent clip, Patterson’s obvious comp is Ray Durham, himself a former Athletic. Patterson’s no kid–a college product, he’s 25–but he doesn’t have many major league miles, so he should be a cheap alternative to Ellis this winter and for several years to come.

Still, if Harden leads the Cubs to their first World Series in 63 years and goes on to pick up a Cy Young or two, all of which are very likely if he can only stay healthy, Beane’s return is going to look awfully light.

As it pertains to this series, the Yankees benefit from not running right into Harden out of the break, but also would have been better off facing Blanton tonight. Facing Gallagher on Sunday splits the difference to a certain degree. In place of Blanton, the Yanks face rookie Greg Smith tonight, himself rebuilding booty from the Dan Haren trade (Beane has now traded 60 percent of his 2007 rotation). A 24-year-old lefty, Smith has an ERA nearly a run higher on the road, but that road mark is a still-strong 3.86. Smith gets by on his curve and changeup, but is far from dominating. Over his last six starts, he’s posted a 2.78 ERA, but has walked more than he’s struck out.

Expect newest Yankee Richie Sexson to get a start against the lefty Smith with Jose Molina continuing to serve as personal catcher for Mike Mussina. That will leave Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada to duke it out over DH duties. The Yankees have never faced smith before and Giambi has faired better against lefties than switch-hitting Posada, but Smith smokes lefties (.205/.250/.265 on the season), so maybe the pitcher’s splits trump the hitters’ here.

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The Yankees open the second half of the 2008 baseball season with a 50-45 (.526) record. They are in third place in the AL East, six games behind the division-leading Red Sox and 5.5 games behind the second-play Rays. In the Wild Card picture, they rank fourth behind the Rays, Twins (3 games), and A’s (1 game), and just a half game ahead of the Texas Rangers.

A year ago, they were in a nearly identical position. Ninety-six games into the 2007 season, the Yankees had a 50-46 (.521) record, were in second place in the East, 7.5 games behind the Red Sox, and were in fourth place in the Wild Card race, 6.5 games behind the Indians, four games behind the Mariners, and a half game behind the Twins.

From that point, the 2007 Yankees went 44-22 (.667) to come within two games of the eventual World Champion Red Sox in the East and take the Wild Card by six games over the Mariners, who went 37-28 (.569) over the same span.

The Yankees weren’t supposed to find themselves in this sort of spot again, and will have a much more difficult time digging themselves out of it this year due to potentially season-ending injuries to Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui and the continued lineup shuffling required by Jorge Posada’s sore shoulder. Here’s a look at what went right and wrong in the first half of this season for the Yankees, and what we might expect to see from them in the second half.

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