Daily Archives: August 10, 2007

Okay, now things get serious. Going 20-8 against the cupcakes was a lot of fun, but now the Yankees face a twenty-game stretch in which 17 games come against contenders (with the other three coming against the Orioles, the only cupcake team to win a series from them over that last 28 games). Of those 17 games against contenders, 14 of them come against teams the Yankees are chasing for a playoff spot including this weekend’s opponent the Cleveland Indians.

This weekend’s series, which will conclude the season set between the two teams, was supposed to be a battle for Wild Card supremacy, but a few things have gotten in the way in recent days. To begin with, the Indians aren’t technically in the Wild Card picture anymore as they slipped past the freefalling Tigers to reclaim the AL Central lead a week ago. What’s more, it’s those pesky Mariners, who I remain convinced are all smoke and mirrors, not the Tigers, that hold the Wild Card lead entering tonight’s action. In fact, the Yankees are in a perfect tie with the Tigers this afternoon, both one game behind the M’s and a game and a half behind Cleveland. That’s a four-team cluster that could be completely rearranged come Sunday evening as the M’s visit Chicago, the Tigers host the A’s, and the Yanks and Tribe to battle in Cleveland.

The Yankees and Indians last met in April, just nine games into the Tribe’s snow-shortened season. The Yankees won the first two games of that series by a combined score of 19-5 behind Chase Wright’s major league debut in the opener and what would prove to be Kei Igawa’s best start of the season. The Yankees sent Darrell Rasner to the hill in the finale to complete their rookie troika, but Rasner was inexplicably pulled in the fifth and Luis Vizcaino coughed up four runs in the seventh. The Yanks entered the bottom of the ninth trailing 6-2 and facing Indians closer Joe Borowski. Borowski retired the first two batters, but Josh Phelps cracked a solo home run to keep the Yankees alive and bring them within three. Jorge Posada singled. Johnny Damon walked. Jeter singled Posada home. Abreu singled Damon home. And Alex Rodriguez hit a three-run homer to win the game 8-6.

Curiously the Indians were a better team then than they are now, while the Yankees were far worse. For the Yankees, the changes are obvious from the players they’re putting on the field. Simply compare this weekend’s starters–Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte–to the trio of Wright, Igawa, and Rasner that started the April series. For the Indians it’s more about their level of play. After posting a .635 winning percentage in April and May combined, the Tribe has gone 32-31 (.508) since, including a 15-18 record over their last ten series.

One reason Cleveland has been scuffling has been a lack of offense. Over those last ten series they’ve averaged just 4.18 runs per game. Now they enter this weekend’s series with DH Travis Hafner nursing a knee he injured sliding into second on Tuesday night. Hafner was removed from the following night’s game, hasn’t played since and likely won’t play tonight. Then again, Hafner, who’s hit just .234/.335/.388 since June 1, was already part of the problem. The Indians will likely replace him in the lineup with one of their platoon outfielders (see roster below) or by shifting Victor Martinez to DH and having Kelly Shoppach catch.

Less of a problem has been the Indians’ pitching, particularly tonight’s starter Fausto Carmona, who has turned in a quality start in 18 of 22 appearances and his last seven straight. Over those last seven starts, the groundballing Carmona has gone 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA and just one home run allowed. That’s further evidence of how much the offense has been struggling as Carmona has lost his last two starts by scores of 3-1 and 1-0. Carmona also started that wild series finale in the Bronx back in April, holding the Yankees to two runs (one of them on a Jason Giambi solo homer) on a walk and six hits over six innings.

Phil Hughes was in triple-A back then, but he’ll be on the mound in Cleveland tonight looking to build his stamina. After throwing 91 pitches in his final rehab start, Hughes threw 92 pitches in his last start against the Royals, but appeared to tire around 70. Jose Molina will catch Hughes as Jorge Posada has a stiff neck. Wilson Betemit gets the start at first base. Despite that April homer, Giambi is not in the lineup, rather Damon gets the start at DH.

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The second half of the Yankees’ season breaks into three distinct parts. The first, completed on Thursday, was what I’ve been calling the “cupcake” portion of their schedule, 28 games against the weaker teams in the league including Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, and the roughly-.500 Blue Jays. The Yankees went 20-8 (.714) over that stretch to propel themselves into the playoff hunt. Tonight they begin the second leg of their second half, a stretch of 20 games in which 17 come against contending teams, and 14 come against Cleveland, Detroit, and Boston, the teams they are chasing in pursuit of a playoff spot.

With that in mind, here’s a look at how the Yankees have performed against the cupcakes, and some thoughts about how that performance might translate against the contenders.

Offense: While the Yankees have risen to the challenge against the weaker teams in the American League, it still remains to be seen if they can continue their success against the contenders. One encouraging sign is that they didn’t just defeat the cupcake teams, they destroyed them, averaging 7.64 runs per game over the last 28 games.

Studs:

Robinson Cano .419/.479/.743, 18 XBH
Jorge Posada .385/.505/.692
Hideki Matsui .342/.382/.694, 12 HR, 29 R
Bobby Abreu .350/.409/.612, 33 RBI
Melky Cabrera .368/.405/.604, 10 2B, 3 3B
Shelley Duncan .314/.385/.743 (5 HR in 39 PA)
Wilson Betemit 5 for 14 (HR, 6 RBI, 3 R, BB)
Wil Nieves 4 for 11 (4 2B, 4 RBI, 4 R, 4 K)

Counting stats listed for Cano, Matsui, and Abreu are team bests over the last 28 games.

Duds:

Andy Phillips .279/.309/.356
Miguel Cairo 1 for 8 (2B, 2 BB, 3 K, SB)
Jose Molina 2 for 11 (2B)

Johnny Damon hit .129/.333/.129 and was 1 for 2 on the bases through the first ten games after the break, then hit .371/.444/.532 and went 4 for 5 on the bases over the final 20. He played in nine of those first ten games, but only 15 of the last 20, and his hot-hitting began after his first game off of that stretch. Of course, that game was game one of the double header against Tampa Bay on July 21, so Damon didn’t really get a day off as he played in the nightcap, but the obvious conclusion is that Damon is more productive when given regular rest, which is exactly how Joe Torre has been using him over the past three weeks.

One wonders if the presense of Wilson Betemit should prompt Torre to start giving Derek Jeter additional days off as well. Jeter hit .338/.377/.477 with four stolen bases in as many tries over the first 15 games of the cupcake schedule, but just .234/.345/.340 with one steal in two tries since then, picking up just three extra base hits in his last 60 plate appearances. Jeter played in all 28 cupcake games, starting 27 of them.

Alex Rodriguez hit .278/.412/.630 through and including the game in which he hit career home run number 499. He then endured an 0-for-19 slump (though he did walk six times, twice intentionally, and was once hit by a pitch). Since snapping that slump two games before hitting number 500, he’s hit .348/.414/.522.

Rotation: Here’s where I start to worry. The Yankees only received a quality start in half of the last 28 games. Of the four primary starters, Andy Pettitte was the only one not to have a disaster outing (more runs allowed than innings pitched). Indeed, per the stats below, Pettitte, not Chien-Ming Wang, has been the Yankee ace in the second half. Admittedly, Wang’s fluky disaster outing against the Blue Jays on Wednesday soured his numbers considerably, but even before that game, Pettitte had a better ERA over six starts than Wang had over five (though Wang did lead Pettitte in WHIP).

Andy Pettite 6 GS, 4 QS, 3.29 ERA, 4-1, 8.69 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, HR, 1.49 WHIP
Chien-Ming Wang 6 GS, 4 QS, 5.66 ERA, 4-2, 4.89 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 0 HR, 1.57 WHIP
Roger Clemens 6 GS, 3 QS, 4.45 ERA, 2-2, 5.57 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, HR, 1.42 WHIP
Mike Mussina 5 GS, 3 QS, 4.76 ERA, 3-1, 5.72 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 3 HR, 1.62 WHIP
Kei Igawa 3 GS, 0 QS, 5.74 ERA, 0-1, 10.34 K/9, 5.17 BB/9, 4 HR, 1.91 WHIP

Phil Hughes and Matt DeSalvo both made one start, neither did particularly well.

The x-factor here, of course, is Phil Hughes. Based on his one start after coming back off the DL, Hughes simply needs to build up his endurance, as he appeared to tire very quickly. If Hughes can start giving the Yankees quality starts out of the fifth spot in the rotation (something that spot failed to do in five tries over the last 28 games), it would not only help the Yankees’ chances of winning every fifth day, but would also reduce the bullpen’s workload, increasing the Yankees’ chances of winning on days the other four starters take the ball.

Bullpen: The Yankee bullpen posted a 3.74 ERA over the last 28 games, but if you factor in unearned runs that number jumps to 4.55, which means this pen has been allowing a run every other inning. That’s a problem. The good news is that, as with Cairo and Igawa above, some of the worst offenders have been shown the door.

The Good:

Mariano Rivera 11 G, 0.00 ERA, 6 SV, 12.75 K/9, 0 BB, 0 HR, 0.58 WHIP
Luis Vizcaino 16 G, 1.13 ERA, 4-0, 9.00 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, HR, 0.69 WHIP

The Bad:

Brian Bruney 11 G, 7 1/3 IP, 7.36 ERA, 6.14 K/9, 6.15 BB/9, 0 HR, 1.77 WHIP
Scott Proctor 7 G, 6 2/3 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.05 K/9, 6.75 BB/9, 4 HR, 2.70 WHIP
Jeff Karstens 2 G, 6 1/3 IP, 7.11 ERA, 4.26 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 1 HR, 1.74 WHIP
Kyle Farnsworth 11 G, 11 IP, 5.73 ERA, 6.55 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 4 HR, 1.64 WHIP

Farnsworth is still around, but at least he’s being used in low leverage situations now, such as with his team down 11 runs as was the case on Wednesday when he threw just his seventh 1-2-3 inning of the season (in 48 tries). Karstens most recent failure came in the finale of the Toronto series, so I’m holding out hope that he’ll be replaced on the roster in the very near future.

Conclusion: Great hitting, questionable pitching. That’s not how you beat good teams. Beginning with the promotion of Shelley Duncan on July 21, the Yankees have upgraded their bench (replacing Kevin Thompson, Miguel Cario, Wil Nieves and Chris Basak with Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina, and Jason Giambi), their rotation (with the return of Hughes), and their bullpen (mostly addition by subtraction thus far, though Joba Chamberlain looked extremely promising in his one appearance in Toronto). The latter two will have to result in significant improvement, however, if the Yankees want to stay in the playoff hunt over the next 20 games.