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Daily Archives: October 10, 2007

Season Review

I’ll be kicking off a player-by-player analysis of the 2007 Yankees in the coming days, but before that, here’s a quick look at the team’s collective performance.

The 2007 Yankees stumbled out of the gate. With Chien-Ming Wang on the disabled list, Carl Pavano became the default Opening Day starter and blew an early lead. The Yankees would comeback to win that game, but went 2-3 on the homestand, then 3-3 on their first road trip as Pavano and Mike Mussina also hit the disabled list. They returned home to sweep the Indians behind a trio of rookie starters (Chase Wright, Kei Igawa, and Darrell Rasner), but then lost their next seven straight, including four to the Red Sox. That losing streak dropped them below .500, where they would remain until mid-June.

On May 30, the Yankees were in fourth place, 14.5 games behind Boston in the AL East. They won 14 of their next 17, including two of three in Boston and a 8-1 homestand against interleague opponents, but followed that up with a disastrous 1-7 road trip through Colorado, San Francisco, and Baltimore that ended with a rain-suspended game which the Yankees led, but wouldn’t officially win for another month.

On July 2, the Yankees were still a losing team. Though they had crept back up to second place in the East, they were 37-41 overall, 10.5 games behind Boston, and in sixth place in the Wild Card race, nine games behind Detroit. That night and the next, they beat the Twins by a combined score of 13-1 behind Roger Clemens and Chien-Ming Wang. Beginning with those two games, the Yankees went 56-27 over their final 83 games–good for a .675 winning percentage, the best in baseball over that stretch. By season’s end, the Yankees stood just two games behind the Red Sox and beat out the Tigers for the American League Wild Card to extend their franchise streak of consecutive postseason appearances to 13, one short of the Atlanta Braves’ record.

While the Yankees’ second-half schedule was littered with what I termed “cupcake” opponents, the distribution of their opponents was not that unbalanced. Forty-one of the Yankees first 79 games came against teams that finished with winning records, while 40 of their final 83 came against eventual winning teams. The Yankees went 17-24 in those first 41 games against winning teams and 26-14 in the final 40, which is evidence that the change in the Yankees’ fortune had more to do with how the team played than who their opponents were.

True, the weakest of those winning teams, the Toronto Blue Jays, accounted for 14 of their 40 games against winning teams in the second half and just four of their 41 games against winning teams in the first half, but even if you remove Toronto from the equation, the Yankees went 16-21 (.432) against the remaining winning teams they faced in the first half and 17-11 (.607) against non-Toronto winning teams in the second half.

Offense:

The Yankees had the best offense in baseball in 2007 as they scored nearly a half run more per game than their closest competitor, the NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies. As a team, the Yankees hit .290/.366/.463 and posted a 123 OPS+, the later a dead match for Derek Jeter’s career figure. The Yankees were also fourth in the American League in stolen bases and had a higher success rate than two of the three teams ahead of them.

The offense’s splits were telling, however. The Yankees scored 5.40 runs in the first half, which ranked a close second to the Tigers. In the second half, however, they scored an incredible 6.63 runs, a 1074-run pace over a full season. That, more than anything else, was responsible for their second half surge.

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Torre’s Time Should End

One year ago, I staunchly defended Joe Torre, proclaiming the seemingly impending decision to fire him and replace him with Lou Piniella as borderline ridiculous. Given that position, some readers might find it strange that I’m now calling for a change at the Yankees’ managerial helm.

So what has happened in the last 365 days to make me alter my opinion? Principally, a third straight defeat in the opening round of the postseason, with the Yankees once again losing to a beatable American League opponent. It’s not that any one or two strategic maneuvers by Torre resulted in them losing, but rather, it was the generally poor tenor of the team’s play. The Yankees didn’t play aggressively, failing to take chances against Victor Martinez, who has had a checkered career when it comes to throwing out baserunners. They once again lacked any killer instinct, failing to hit in the clutch against C.C. Sabathia in Game One and failing to tack on a second run against Fausto Carmona in Game Two. Again, these aren’t necessarily errors on the part of the manager, but they have become part of a trend of ineffectual play for the Yankees in the postseason, dating back to those final four games against the Red Sox in 2004. The Yankees just don’t seem to come to the postseason prepared the way they used to be. After awhile, the manager has to be accountable, at least in part, for a dreadful record of 4-13 in the team’s last 17 postseason games.

There were tactical mistakes, too, that may not have lost the series on their own, but certainly didn’t help matters. Torre should have called upon Phil Hughes as his first reliever in Game One, once it became apparent that Chien-Ming Wang couldn’t direct his sinker downward. Instead, Torre turned to the less experienced Ross Ohlendorf, essentially putting up a white flag on a game that was still in question. In Game Three, Torre didn’t need to put Joba Chamberlain in for a two-inning stint, not with a five-run lead. (Torre and the coaches also looked disjointed as they frantically waved their arms toward Robinson Cano, whom they apparently wanted to relay a message to the bullpen.) That misjudgment ultimately didn’t cost the Yankees, since Chamberlain wasn’t needed in Game Four, but imagine if the Yankees had held a one-run lead going into the seventh with a tiring starter on the mound? How would Chamberlain have responded to pitching back-to-back days after throwing 38 pitches? Torre also blundered in Game Four, when he failed to pinch-hit for Doug Mientkiewicz after Wang had been knocked out. Minky was playing only because of Wang’s groundball tendencies; once Wang went to the showers, the Yankees needed to immediately switch to a better bat, like that of Jason Giambi’s, to attempt a comeback against Cleveland. Instead, Torre stayed with Minky until the sixth inning, when he called on Shelley Duncan. Giambi remained on the bench until the eighth inning, by which time the Yankees’ season had nearly reached the stage of desperation.

Beyond the postseason failing, the Yankees’ poor first half of the season also stands as a black mark against Torre. Yes, there was a bevy of injuries to the starting rotation, but there was also listless play in the field, a lack of intensity during too many at-bats, a ridiculous reliance on Miguel Cairo as the everyday first baseman, a refusal to take an injured Johnny Damon out of the lineup, and continued mismanagement of the bullpen. Torre has to be accountable for some of those problems, all of which put the Yankees in such a hole that they would have to end up settling for a wild card instead of a division title.

Torre’s legacy will remain overwhelmingly positive and it’s only a matter of time before he takes his place in Cooperstown. But no one manages in one place forever. Not Joe McCarthy, who resigned under fire in the middle of his 16th season in New York. Not even Casey Stengel, who managed the Yankees for 12 years, just like Torre, but was eventually fired. In my mind, 12 years has been enough for Torre, too. There should be no shame in making a managerial change one time in over a decade. Let’s just hope the Yankees move decisively and don’t let Torre unnecessarily twist in the wind. He doesn’t deserve that, and the team needs to get on to the business of player personnel as quickly as possible.

In addition, there are certainly some qualified candidates to choose from, making this the right time to make a change. Some are in-house, some are out-of-house, but all have their merits. Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities.

Don Mattingly:

A smart, overachieving ballplayer during his Yankee career, Mattingly has paid at least some of his managerial dues as a batting instructor and bench coach. Players raved about his work as a batting coach, citing his work ethic and breadth of hitting knowledge. On the down side, Mattingly has never managed in the minor leagues, has never been a third base coach, and has only a couple of games of experience as a fill-in skipper replacing Torre during suspensions. Mattingly also lacks charisma and flair in his dealings with the media, which could make him a target once things start to go wrong on the field. I’d feel a lot better about Mattingly if he managed a season at Double-A or Triple-A, but he’s never expressed an interesting in doing so—and neither have the Yankees.

Tony Pena:

He’s probably the longest of long shots, but figures to be at least one of the minority candidates interviewed by Brian Cashman. He’s a onetime American League Manager of the Year who has done good work in improving Jorge Posada’s defensive game. He also figures to communicate well with young Latino players like Wilson Betemit, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and Edwar Ramirez, who represent a good chunk of the Yankee future. Unfortunately, Pena’s first managerial tenure in Kansas City ended quickly and badly, brought down by some serious personal problems.

Bobby Valentine:

He might be an even longer shot than Pena, but Steinbrenner has always been intrigued by Valentine’s personality and IQ, and would love nothing better than to take a shot at the Mets along the way. Valentine certainly has no fear of New York, has World Series experience, and knows the game as well as any manager or coach. Valentine’s problem has always been his ego—he thinks he knows the game better than anyone, always a dangerous thought—which could clash quickly with Cashman, any of his coaches, and the owner.

Tony LaRussa:

At first, the mention of LaRussa’s name seemed like a long shot, but George Steinbrenner likes big-name managers who have won elsewhere. (Dallas Green and Billy Martin are prime examples of that.) LaRussa brings several positives to the table, including a high intelligence, a willingness to buck convention, and a terrific pitching coach in Dave Duncan (who happens to be the father of the Yankees’ Shelly). Unfortunately, there are problems. LaRussa struggles in relationships with players (see Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols) and overmanages the bullpen, forgetting that he doesn’t have that great five-man bullpen in Oakland anymore. Yes, it’s been a long time since the days of Gene Nelson and Rick Honeycutt setting up Dennis Eckersley.

Joe Girardi:

This should be the man. He’s been terrific as a part-time analyst on the Yankees’ YES Network, but his primary passion remains managing. Who can blame him, considering the marvelous job he did with Florida on his way to winning the National League Manager of the Year? (I don’t buy this criticism that Girardi somehow "abused" his starters in Florida, when only Dontrelle Willis pitched over 180 innings and had no subsequent arm trouble in ‘07.) Girardi is exceedingly intelligent, well-organized, and highly driven, all favorable characteristics for a field manager. I’ve read some claims that Girardi would be a bad fit for the veteran-laden Yankees because of his hands-on, attention-to-detail approach that, in the minds of some scouts, makes him another Buck Showalter. Well, that assessment is bulldinky, to borrow some terminology from In Living Color. Girardi, already knowing many of the players in New York from his days as a coach and broadcaster, is smart enough to make the adjustment from leading a team of youngsters in Florida to managing more of a mixed bag in New York. Combining old school values of toughness and discipline with a new school understanding of statistics and computer technology, Girardi would be the ideal choice to succeed Torre in pinstripes.

Bruce Markusen is the author of eight books on baseball. He also writes "Cooperstown Confidential" for MLB.com and contributes articles to the MLB Alumni Association. He can be reached at bmark@telenet.net.

Yankee Panky # 27: The Silly Season Begins

Coverage of the Yankees’ aftermath begins in the second week of October for the third straight year. Had the Yankees received better starting pitching from their ace and gotten timely hits in more than one game, we might be talking about the insane hype of Yankees-Red Sox IV instead of counting down the days until spring training.

So now, we ask a ton of questions and simultaneously search for answers to what went wrong, and what’s next. Aside from Joe Torre, the A-Rod question looms largest among all the potential players who could be gone in 60 days or so. The Post’s Mike Vaccaro notes A-Rod’s reluctance to answer that question immediately following Game 4.

Perhaps our friends at Replacement Level summed it up best:

"I’m not sure what I feel right now. I’m disappointed obviously, and there will be a tendency to find scapegoats and blame people on the Yankees, but the Yankees lost to a pretty damn good team in Cleveland. Sometimes you get outplayed by a team that is better. I’ll be pulling for them in the ALCS."

Now we enter the silly season of coverage. Where "sources close to the situation" determine everything, and a greater emphasis is placed on getting the story out as opposed to getting it right. In such a competitive atmosphere to scoop everyone, this is understandable — the rumors sell papers — but it blurs the line of truth even further. Just yesterday SI.com’s Jon Heyman told the talk-radio audience that Tony LaRussa is the leading candidate to replace Joe Torre. If you’re Bill Madden, you’re absolutely positive that Steinbrenner wants LaRussa and have anonymous sources to back it up. If you’re George King of the New York Post, your sources say LaRussa isn’t interested and that Don Mattingly’s the favorite to replace Torre, followed by Joe Girardi. This is, of course, provided that Torre either opts not to return or is ordered not to.

The bitterness and anger that followed last year’s early exit was gone this year. By no means was it a love fest, but in general I thought the papers and the broadcast media did a good job of capturing that emotion and the closeness that this Yankee team appeared to have compared to others that have faltered in recent years. The way the stories were presented — especially from those who ventured away from the podium in the press cafeteria — I got the sense that the players viewed this loss as a greater disappointment than the last two, that there was an even greater sense of finality. (More on this below)

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver