Daily Archives: June 5, 2008

In addition to this afternoon’s thrilling comeback victory, the Yankees have been doing more good work in the draft, particularly with their first pick. There’s a ton of coverage and analysis being posted all over the net, so I’ll make some attempt to gather things in this post as I find them. Check back for updates. Also, follow this link for three-minute MLB scouting videos on the players below.

First Round (28th pick):

RHP Gerrit Cole, Orange Lutheran High School, California

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus: This is a great pick on a talent/slot level. Most talented high school pitcher in the draft, and the Yankees can pay him. As bad as the Brackman pick was last year . . . that’s how good this one is. I’m not a big fan of low arm slot guys, but at 28, this is a fantastic pick for the Bombers.

Keith Law, ESPN: This is a great pick; he fell to the Yankees for financial reasons. Cole has the best arm among the prep pitchers in the draft. He has a loose, quick arm. He has the best fastball of the high school pitchers; it tops out 97 mph. He needs more consistency on the breaking ball. And he needs to just throw his changeup instead of guiding it. He’s a high-ceiling arm that could be a No. 1 starter. If that doesn’t work, he could be a dominant reliever.

Baseball America: Cole is the best righthander out of Southern California since Phil Hughes starred at Santa Ana’s Foothills High in 2004.

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Hell of a game in the Bronx today. The Yanks jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Dustin McGowan in the first, but Chien-Ming Wang gave those runs back in the fourth on a two-run pop-fly home run off the top of the right field wall by Matt Stairs.

Once again, Wang wasn’t sharp. Of his 90 pitches, just 12 were sliders and only one was a changeup. Wang got strike three of his four Ks with those secondary pitches, but every other pitch he threw was a sinker, and too many of them were either up or out of the zone. Wang started the fifth inning by walking Joe Inglett, the fourth free pass he issued on the afternoon. After a groundout, pesky David Eckstein reached on an infield single. Alex Rios then hit a soft fly ball to center field, but Inglett, apparently thinking there were two outs, took off like a rocket from second base. It was a terribly play by Inglett, but it appeared to distract Melky Cabrera as the ball ticked off the pinky of his glove and fell for a run-scoring error. With that, Wang folded. He hit Scott Rolen with a pitch, gave up a booming double in the left-center-field gap to Stairs, and another down the right field line to Lyle Overbay. Joe Girardi pulled his starter at that point, but the damage was done. The Yankees were down 7-2.

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After posting a 2.90 ERA through his first nine starts, Chien-Ming Wang has a 7.91 ERA over his last three. What’s gone wrong and can he pull out of it? Here are some of Wang’s rates from his first nine starts vs. his last three:

Wang’s been bad across the board over his last three starts with one surprising exception, his ground ball rate has actually been higher of late. Now compare those two sets of rates to Wang’s career rates entering the year:

Save for the walk and caught stealing rates, his peripherals from his last three games wouldn’t have seemed out of place coming from the Chien-Ming Wang of the last three years. That was the sinkerballer with the alarmingly low strikeout rates who seemed to be defying the odds. Over his first nine starts of this year, Wang was a different pitcher, mixing his pitches more and thus spiking his strikeout rate at the cost of a few groundballs, some of which would have gone for hits. The result was real dominance, but it seems Wang has gotten away from that and reverted not only back to the one-trick pitcher he was, but beyond it to a pitcher suffering from his inability to miss bats.

There’s more to it than that, certainly, but just when Wang looked to be making the leap from the Yankee ace to one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s taken a mighty stumble. Remarkably, the Yankees have won two of his last three starts (by scored of 6-5 and 7-6) and are still 9-3 in Wang’s starts on the year.

Today, Wang and the Yanks take on Dustin McGowan, who has the fastest average fastball among all major league starters according to FanGraphs, looking to take the series from Toronto and get the Yanks back to .500.

Wilson Betemit remains at first base as Jason Giambi is still nursing his bruised foot, but Jorge Posada is behind the plate for the first time since April 26.

In addition to Posada’s return, the amateur draft kicks off at 2pm today. Two years ago the Yankees’ first two picks were Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain with the 21st and 41st overall picks, both of which were received as compensation when Tom Gordon signed with the Phillies. The Yankee farm system is packed with exciting prospects (most of them pitchers) from the last three drafts. Today, the Yankees and scouting director Damon Oppenheimer (the man who has been making the picks since 2005) will add to that crop starting with the 28th overall pick and the 44th overall pick, the latter of which they received as compensation when Luis Vizcaino signed with the Rockies.

Were the expectations of Joba Chamberlain’s debut as a starter a media creation, as Big Stein the Younger said? Did the spoiled sector of the Yankee fan base add to the unrealistic bar that was set? Did the Yankees bring this on themselves by messing with a good thing in the short term for a potential benefit in the long term? It depends on what you read and what you choose to believe.

True: Chamberlain started most of last year in Triple-A until he was tabbed as the Next Big Thing in the bullpen (not a media creation; an organizational decision).

True: Chamberlain teased us with a phenomenal Shane Spencerish, lightning-in-a-bottle performance in late-summer, solidifying a bullpen that was nowhere outside of Mariano Rivera. In fact, his performance was on par with 1995-96 level Rivera, and 2002 Francisco Rodriguez, the Playoff Edition.

True: Injuries to fellow young guns Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, who started the year in the rotation but have gone winless, likely forced the Yankees’ hand.

True: The Yankees had Chamberlain on a tight pitch count. But what was it? 65? 70? Different reports had different numbers? Unless they went to different sources in the organization, there should have been a consistent number. And the editors should have picked up on it. I can hear the voices of two of my formative journalism professors now: "Be careful with numbers. First, make sure you get them right, and don’t overuse them. They should only enhance the story, not be the story." Bottom line, get the number right, guys.

True: The Yankees’ middle relief … well, you and I have a better chance of getting outs than Edwar (leave off the last D for disappointing outing) Ramirez, Jose Veras and "What is" Kyle Farnsworth, thanks to this move. In short, the bullpen could be bull$&!#@ real fast.

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Mike Mussina cruised into the sixth inning last night, holding the Blue Jays scoreless while striking out a season-high six men. With two out and Alex Rios on first via Mussina’s only walk of the game in the sixth, he appeared to strike out Alex Rios Scott Rolen, but home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor didn’t deliver the punch out. Rios walked and scored on a Scott Rolen doubled Rios home, but that was all the Blue Jays would get all night as Ross Ohlendorf, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mariano Rivera each turned in a scoreless inning to nail down a 5-1 Yankee win and deliver Mussina’s ninth win of the year.

The Yankee scoring started in the third inning when Jose Molina and Johnny Damon singled off Toronto starter Jesse Litsch and Derek Jeter plated Molina with a single that pushed the captain past Mickey Mantle on the all-time hit list. The Yanks got two more in the fourth on a Wilson Betemit homer, a Robinson Cano double, and a Melky Cabrera homer single, all of which came with two outs. After Litch left the game, the Yanks added a run in the sixth (which was charged to Litsch) and one more in the seventh to set the final score.

It was a nice easy win that saw the four Yankee pitchers combine to strike out nine Jays and allow just one run on six hits and a walk. It was particularly encouraging to see Ohlendorf pitch well in short relief and pick up a hold, as that’s the role he was intended to fill back in spring training and a role in which he’s now very much needed.

As for the offense, consider the fact that Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch had allowed a total of two runs in their last two starts combined totaling 33 innings, but the Yankees scored six runs off them in 11 1/3 combined innings over the last two nights and get Jorge Posada back today. The Yankees also pulled a half game ahead of the Orioles and can get back to .500 and win this series with a victory this afternoon.