I have to hand it to the MLB schedule makers, tonight’s season opener between the World Champion Chicago White Sox and the up-and-coming Cleveland Indians (on ESPN2 at 8:00 EST) is the perfect way to kick off the 2006 season. I was one of five Toasters to pick the A’s to go all the way this year, but after Oakland, I believe the Indians and White Sox are the next two best teams in baseball. As a result, I expect the AL Central to be this year’s most exciting race. So what better way to start the season than with the World Champs and the team that’s poised to make them sweat all season long.
Last year, the Indians rebounded from a 9-14 (.391) start to play .604 baseball over the season’s final 139 games. They also went 22-36 (.379) in one-run games, including five one-run loses in their final seven games which handed the White Sox the division and the Red Sox the wild card in the season’s final week. In games decided my more than one run, the 2005 Indians played .683 ball. These signs all point toward a better record in 2006 for a team that missed the playoffs by two games last year.
The story of the White Sox 2005 season, meanwhile, is the exact opposite. After a scorching 24-7 (.774) start, the White Sox played .572 ball the rest of the way and posted a .648 winning percentage in one-run games, including two of their three wins against the Indians in the season’s final series. Due largely to their disparate one-run records, the Indians’ Pythagorean record was five games better than the White Sox’s last year, despite that fact that the Sox won the division by six games.
Despite winning their first Championship in 88 years, the White Sox hardly rested on their laurels this offseason, trading for Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez, both of whom stand to be major improvements over the departed Carl Everett and Orlando Hernandez, and giving rookie Brian Anderson the center field job. Elsewhere, however, there is considerable fear of regression. Will Jermaine Dye slug .512 this year? Will Scott Podsednik revert to his .244/.313/.364 line from 2004? Can Jose Contreras sustain the improvements he made last year? Will the rest of the rotation survive the loss of Aaron Rowand’s defense in center? Most of all, what will come of the White Sox’s bullpen, which in 2005 got career years out of Cliff Politte and Dustin Hermanson (the latter of whom will start the season on the DL with a bad back) and saw youngsters Neal Cotts and Bobby Jenks appear to make the leap? The fifth and sixth men in the pen for the Sox entering the season are Matt Thornton, a would-be LOOGY who gave Mike Hargrove fits in Seattle last year by walking 6.63 men per nine innings (does that make him a LOWGY?), and 21-year-old Boone Logan, who has spent all but four games of his three-year professional career in rookie ball with the White Sox’s Pioneer League team in Great Falls.
The Indians, meanwhile, are a team on the rise. Though their off-season changes are largely uninspiring (getting Ben Broussard a legitimate lefty-killer for a platoon partner in Eduardo Perez and replacing no-hit back-up catcher Josh Bard with the power and patience of Kelly Shoppach stand as their biggest upgrades), their triple-A team at Buffalo is stocked with prospects who could greatly improve an already excellent ball club by taking over at the major league level mid-season, among them Andy Marte (3B), Ryan Garko (1B), Brad Snyder (RF), Franklyn Gutierrez (CF/LF), starting pitchers Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Sowers, and reliever Andrew Brown. Given that tremendous potential for in-season improvement via on-hand talent and the correction that’s bound to occur in the one-run records of both teams, I believe the Indians are the team to beat in the central this year.
For more on these teams be sure to check out the outstanding Let’s Go Tribe and the two excellent Sox blogs South Side Sox and Exile in Wrigleyville (and of course my Indians chapter in Baseball Prospectus 2006).
As I type this, we’re about a half hour from the first pitch of the 2006 season. Lefties Mark Buehrle and C.C. Sabathia are likely taking their warm-up pitches in the U.S. Cellular Field bullpens. You can find the opening day rosters of both teams below the fold.
Cleveland Indians
2005 Record: 93-69
2005 Pythagorean Record: 96-66
Manager: Eric Wedge
General Manager: Mark Shapiro
Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Jacobs Field (94/94)
Who’s Replacing Whom?
Jason Michaels replaces Coco Crisp
Eduardo Perez replaces Jose Hernandez
Todd Hollandsworth replaces Jody Gerut and Jason Duboise (minors)
Kelly Shoppach replaces Josh Bard
Paul Byrd replaces Kevin Millwood
Jason Johnson replaces Scott Elarton
Guillermo Mota replaces David Riske
Danny Graves replaces Arthur Rhodes
Fernando Cabrera and to a lesser extent Matt Miller take over Bobby Howry’s innings
Opening Day Roster:
1B – Ben Broussard (L)
2B – Ron Belliard (R)
SS – Jhonny Peralta (R)
3B – Aaron Boone (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – Casey Blake (R)
CF – Grady Sizemore (L)
LF – Jason Michaels (R)
DH – Travis Hafner (L)
Bench:
R – Eduardo Perez (1B)
L – Todd Hollandsworth (OF)
L – Ramon Vazquez (IF)
R – Kelly Shoppach (C)
Rotation:
L – C.C. Sabathia
R – Paul Byrd
L – Cliff Lee
R – Jake Westbrook
R – Jason Johnson
Bullpen:
R – Bob Wickman
R – Rafael Betancourt
R – Fernando Cabrera
L – Scott Sauerbeck
R – Guillermo Mota
R – Matt Miller
R – Danny Graves
Anticipated Lineup:
L – Grady Sizemore (CF)
R – Jason Michaels (LF)
R – Jhonny Peralta (SS)
L – Travis Hafner (DH)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
L – Ben Broussard (1B)/R – Eduardo Perez (1B)
R – Rafael Belliard (2B)
R – Aaron Boone (3B)
R – Casey Blake (RF)
***
World Champion Chicago White Sox
2005 Record: 99-63
2005 Pythagorean Record: 91-71
Manager: Ozzie Guillen
General Manager: Kenny Williams
Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): US Cellular Field (103/102)
Who’s Replacing Whom?
Jim Thome replaces Carl Everett
Ross Gload inherits Frank Thomas’s at-bats
Alex Cintron replaces Willie Harris
Rob Mackowiak replaces Timo Perez
Javier Vazquez replaces Orlando Hernandez
Matt Thornton replaces Damaso Marte
Boone Logan replaces Luis Vizcaino
Bobby Jenks takes over Dustin Hermanson’s save opportunities
Opening Day Roster:
1B – Paul Konerko (R)
2B – Tadahito Iguchi (R)
SS – Juan Uribe (R)
3B – Joe Crede (R)
C – A.J. Pierzynski (L)
RF – Jermaine Dye (R)
CF – Brian Anderson (R)
LF – Scott Podsednik (L)
DH – Jim Thome (L)
Bench:
L – Rob Mackowiak (UT)
L – Ross Gload (1B)
S – Alex Cintron (IF)
R – Pablo Ozuna (IF)
R – Chris Widger (C)
Rotation:
L – Mark Buehrle
R – John Garland
R – Freddy Garcia
R – Jose Contreras
R – Javier Vazquez
Bullpen:
R – Bobby Jenks
L – Neal Cotts
R – Cliff Politte
R – Brandon McCarthy
L – Matt Thornton
L – Boone Logan
DL: R – Dustin Hermanson
Anticipated Lineup:
L – Scott Podsednik (LF)
R – Tadahito Iguchi (2B)
L – Jim Thome (DH)
R – Paul Konerko (R)
R – Jermaine Dye (RF)
L – A.J. Pierzynski (C)
R – Joe Crede (3B)
R – Juan Uribe (2B)
R – Brian Anderson (CF)
