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It’s a bitterly cold Presidents’ Day Observed and I’m alone at the office, having traded Friday for Monday on my work schedule.

Down in Tampa it’s a good 35 to 40 degrees warmer and there’s an atmosphere of unburdening in the air. Yankee Chairman of the Board and heir apparent to the Boss Steve Swindal made his first appearance at Legends Field and spoke to reporters about his DUI bust in the wee hours of the morning last Thursday. Clearly humiliated, Swindal was very apologetic, but unable to comment much due to his pending trial scheduled for some time in March.

A bit earlier, Alex Rodriguez spoke candidly to reporters about his opt-out clause, his relationship with Derek Jeter (which will grab most of the headlines) and his reaction to batting eighth in the Yankees’ final postseason game last year. About the last he admitted to being “disappointed” and “embarrassed” and said he “didn’t like it,” but expressed awareness that his performance was what lead to Torre’s decision.

Our man in the field, Peter Abraham has full audio of both men up on his blog: Swindal, Rodriguez.

The latter is enlightening not simply because of Rodriguez’s refreshing honesty, but because of the way the assembled reporters badger him about his opt-out clause. Rodriguez says some version of “I want to be a Yankee” at least eight times but, wisely, refuses to say more because that opt-out clause is a tremendous bit of negotiating leverage and he’s obviously too smart to undermine it just to get a bullheaded beat reporter off his back (he also says “I understand my contract” or the like at least four times). The closest he comes to conceding to the onslaught, which at one point becomes so absurd that the crowd erupts in laughter, is saying that he will not be a free agent next year, but he simultaneously refuses to turn “I want to be a Yankee” into “I will be a Yankee.” If you want to know why the New York media drives some athletes crazy, give a listen and consider that this is Rodriguez’s first day in camp and all he’s done thus far is unpack his things and get a physical.

In injury news, Steven White threw today, his neck pain from Friday having proven to be as inconsequential as had been assumed. Meanwhile, according to Joe Torre, Carl Pavano ended some of his drills early today due to “heavy legs.” With any other player this wouldn’t be news. Indeed, Meat did throw his bullpen session later in the day. Still, because it’s Pavano, it bears watching.

Every year players get ouchies in spring training as a normal part of getting back in shape. Folks always overreact. The Yankees haven’t been in camp a week yet and they already have their first “casualty.” Steven White tweaked his neck. He left camp in a neck brace and got an MRI, but Joe Torre thinks he just slept wrong and will be back in action early next week.

In other news, Raul Chavez got the cast off his broken glove hand and could be catching bullpen sessions in about a week. He should be ready to go once games start in March. I still think he has no shot at making the Opening Day roster, but it looks like he’ll get a chance to try after all.

In these early days of spring training, reporters, bloggers, and fans desperate for any little bit of news cling to every comment made by the manager and GM, wishcasting and overreacting wildly to anything that seems to betray more than intended.

For example, at the end of his chat with the press yesterday, Joe Torre was asked if he got to see any of the relievers work out in the bullpen and if he saw anything he liked. Here’s his response:

“Kozlowski. I like his size and the fact that he’s left handed. I thought Veras was very good. It looked like he was hitting spots which is pretty unusual. Plus, Gator said to him ‘what was that?’ He says, ‘curveball.’ He [Guidry] says ‘No, no, no. Fastballs. Changeup.’ So, he felt good enough to want to do that today. . . . Let’s see who else was there. . . . Vizcaino I missed, I wanted to see him, but I was a little tardy. Gator said he hit his spots all the time and threw well. I though Beam threw the ball pretty good. Henn, I tell ya, Henn’s throwing the ball hard, and, again, he showed us that last year that we didn’t see before that. So it’s going to be interesting. I thought Villone threw the ball good. If you compare to last year, where he was at this time last year, because he didn’t have a good spring as far as pop on the ball.”

Using the list of pitching groups posted earlier yesterday by Peter Abraham, Torre mentioned the lone new guy in group one (Vizcaino), one guy from group three (Kozlowski), and one guy not listed (Villone) as well as every member of group two but one: Chris Britton, who was not only part of group two, but is a pitcher Torre’s never seen before in camp.

So should Chris Britton be worried? Probably not, but that’s the level of clue-hunting that tends to go one this time of year.

With that in mind, one thing that always interests me is the assignment of spring training numbers. If you’re wearing number 83 and competing with a guy wearing number 14, odds are you’re fighting an up-hill battle. So, what do the numbers tell us?

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I know I promised you all my campers post this week, but with the influx of juicy news items and it being Friday and all, before a three-day weekend no less, well, forgive me for taking the easy way out.

Did I say juicy? How about the Boss’s son-in-law and successor, who to some degree has already taken over the day-to-day operations of the team, being busted for a DUI.

How about Mikey Moose making mince meat out of Pavano’s “What Me Worry?” attitude toward returning to the team (quotes below the fold).

How about Kerry Wood taking a page out of Pavano’s book and missing the opening of camp because he slipped and fell out of a hot tub.

How about Barry Zito, San Francisco’s $126-millon man, showing up for Giants camp with a completely new delivery that pitching coach Dave Righetti thinks could ruin his famous curveball.

How about the BALCO testimony leak being identified.

Less juicy is the news that the Yankees will be wearing black armbands this season in memory of Cory Lidle. The Yankees last wore armbands in 2000 in memory of Catfish Hunter and Bob Lemon.

Speaking of uniform alterations, the ad wizards at MLB have tricked out the Yankees batting practice duds with white underarm stripes on the jerseys and these godawful caps complete with highly illogical ear piping. Last year the Yankees avoided this crap. It’s severely disappointing to see them infected this spring.

Even more problematic, Joe Torre has finally spoken to Bernie Williams and is encouraging him to come to camp. Torre told the media today that Bernie’s only chance of making the roster would be at the expense of the winner of the Phelps-Phillips battle, but that he’s not opposed to playing Mientkiewicz fulltime at first base. Curiously, he also indicated that he’s not going to rule out starting Giambi at first base until he gets a look at him this spring, which opens up the possibility of Giambi playing first and Melky Cabrera seeing a spike in playing time as Giambi and the three outfielders rotate through the DH spot. That would reduce Mientkiewicz to a backup role and clear room for Bernie in place of Phelps/Phillips. One other piece of relevant info from Torre’s chat was that while Philip Hughes is all but guaranteed to start the season in triple-A, his only chance of making the major league team would be as a member of the rotation. So much for my bullpen idea.

Finally, here’s a puff piece on Kyle Farnsworth in which he says all the right things and indicates a budding friendship with Andy Pettitte that I imagine would do the big guy a hill of good (pun intended).

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The Yankees’ options for fifth starter are a solid group that combines a 31-year-old who won 18 games three years ago, a pair of rookies in their mid-20s who filled in capably last September, and perhaps the best pitching prospect in all of baseball, with another of the game’s top prospects available as Plan E. At backup catcher, however, their choices are the old, the infirm, and the incapable. Here are the four candidates for the job:

Chavez, easily the worst hitter among this feeble foursome, was to be part of the discussion because of his defense, something Joe Torre has always valued highly from his catchers as evidenced by his conspiring to dump Mike Stanley for Joe Girardi upon arriving in the Bronx. Chavez, however, had his left hand broken by a pitch in winter ball. As he arrives in camp with his hand still in a cast, he’s out of the running for the Opening Day roster.

Ben Davis was once a top catching prospect but, other than breaking up a Curt Schilling no-hitter with a bunt, has never done anything of value with the bat. Mix in a July 2005 Tommy John surgery which he spent last year rehabbing from, and he’s fighting to keep his career afloat, never mind attempting to break camp with the team. He’ll need to impress at triple-A and have the winner of this battle struggle to have any real shot at returning to the majors.

Thus, this battle rather quickly boils down to Wil Nieves, the youngest and least experienced of the group, and 40-year-old veteran Todd Pratt.

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I’m putting my position battle posts on hold for a day seeing as there’s some actual news to report today. Of course, pitchers and catchers reported yesterday, but the big news (relatively speaking, of course) was that the Yankees added a pitcher and will be short one catcher in Tampa.

Jersey boy Ron Villone signed a minor league deal with the Yankees yesterday. Given his strong performance through mid-August of last year (2.23 ERA through Aug. 16), which eventually made him one of Joe Torre’s go-to relievers, his left-handedness, his ability to work multiple innings, and his overall veteran mojo, I expect he’ll have to have an exceptionally poor spring not to make the roster. If Villone makes the team, he’ll earn $2.5 million this season. That would leave just one undecided spot on the 25-man roster after the Yankees’ three position battles are settled. That spot will go to one of the organization’s young relievers, with righty Chris Britton being the most likely to travel north.

Also, Brian Cashman told the press yesterday that Raul Chavez, one of the non-roster invitees vying for the backup catcher spot, broke his left hand while playing winter ball and is still wearing a cast. That will likely end his chances of breaking camp as Jorge Posada’s back-up (I’ve been unable to turn up an estimate for Chavez’s return to action). I’ll have a post up tomorrow about the remaining candidates for that job.

Meanwhile, check out Anthony McCarron’s profile of righty first-base candidate Josh Phelps, as well as the more than 30 minutes of actual audio of Joe Torre and Brian Cashman on the first day of spring training over at Peter Abraham’s LoHud blog.

If the right-handed first-baseman battle is unique among the Yankees’ three spring-training position battles because it’s the only one that features a head-to-head competition, the battle for fifth starter is unique because it’s the only one that has a clear favorite entering camp. Well, maybe “favorite” isn’t the right term to use. This is Crash Pavano we’re talking about, after all.

The top four spots in the Yankee rotation are set with Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and Kei Igaway. If Mr. Glass is able to pitch with any level of effectiveness during spring training and manages to make it to Opening Day without slamming his finger in a door or cutting himself shaving, he’ll be the fifth starter. Not that the odds are very good of that happening, or that there’s much chance of him finishing the season with that job. If Pavano pitches well through April and May it’s almost a lock that he’ll be traded in June. The only variable there is the health of the rest of the rotation.

So while the fifth starter job is Pavano’s to lose, the competition in spring training will be no less compelling as a result. Here’s a quick look at the combatants:

The above chart does not include Tyler Clippard or the two starters obtained in the Randy Johnson trade, Russ Ohlendorf and Steven Jackson, because none of those three have thrown a single pitch above double-A. Of course, the same is true of Philip Hughes, who is far and away the best pitcher listed above. But then there are limits on Hughes’ participation here as well.

Soreness in his pitching shoulder limited Hughes to 86 1/3 innings in his first full professional season in 2005. Last year, the Yankees cautiously held the 20-year-old to 146 innings. This year his innings cap will be 180. If Hughes were to make the Yankees out of camp, the Yankees would have to keep Hughes on short leash in order to keep him from exceeding that total over the course of a full season. Last year Chien-Ming Wang and Randy Johnson lead the Yankees with 33 regular season starts. Spread across 33 games, 180 innings averages out to just 5.45 innings per game, and that doesn’t include potential postseason starts, which would consume the innings the Yankees might be able to save by skipping Hughes’ turn on the few occasions when scheduled off-days allow them to do so.

The Yankees are to be commended for their careful handling of Hughes. They’re doing all the right things regarding his workloads, and their impulse to have him start this season at triple-A is also a good one. True, Hughes could likely pitch effectively in the major leagues without a stint in triple-A, but there’s no harm in easing him into things. Starting him out in Scranton is an excellent way for them to insure that he won’t be extended beyond those 180 innings. Another is to using him sparingly out of the major league pen in the early months of the season as the Twins did with Francisco Liriano last year.

Let’s crunch some numbers here using 2006 AL innings-pitched and ERA leader Johan Santana and complete games leader C.C. Sabathia as examples of the best and most durable American League pitchers. Both Santana and Sabathia averaged about 6.88 innings pitched per start last year. Assuming , then, that Hughes will average no more than 6 2/3 innings per major league start, he could make 27 starts for the Yankees in 2007 before exceeding his limit. Of course, when you factor in a full postseason run, the Yankees could require close to 40 starts from their best pitchers, which leaves Hughes inactive for significant chunks of the season. There are three possible alternatives to simply letting Hughes pitch until he hits 180 innings and thus facing the heat of the pennant race and postseason without him.

If the Yankees let Hughes pitch on a strict innings limit in triple-A for the first couple of months of the season, then promote him in June they might only get 19 major league starts out of him between the regular and postseasons, but they’ll keep him active throughout the season. If the Yankees skip the fifth spot in the rotation every time the schedule allows them to in April and May, they’ll first need a fifth starter in June on the fifth of the month. To put Hughes on schedule for that start, the Yankees could make him the fifth man in the Scranton rotation. That would give him 11 starts in triple-A before his major league debut on June 5. If they then skip Hughes’ turn in the major league rotation whenever the scheduled off-days allow them to do so over the remainder of the season, Hughes would make 16 major league starts during the 2007 regular season. If they limit him to five innings in each of his 11 triple-A starts but otherwise let him loose in the majors (again assuming a maximum 6 2/3 innings pitched per start), he would finish the regular season with a maximum of 161 2/3 innings pitched between Scranton and New York. That would then allow him to make three postseason starts (say one in the ALDS and two in the ALCS) without meaningfully exceeding his 180-inning limit. If all of that goes according to plan and the Yankees find themselves in the World Series, I’m sure an extra two starts in pursuit of a World Championship would be perfectly acceptable.

Alternately, the Yankees could limit Hughes to side sessions in April, promote him directly to the major league rotation when the fifth spot comes due on May 5, and again skip his turn whenever the schedule allows. That would result in 24 major league starts in the regular season and a maximum of 160 innings pitched prior to the postseason.

A third option, and the one that I think would ultimately be most beneficial to both the team’s goals for 2007 and Hughes’ long term development, would be to pitch Hughes in regular rotation in the major leagues beginning on June 5 (that is not skipping his turn when off-days allow). That would result in 21 regular season major league starts totalling a maximum of 140 innings. That leaves 20 extra innings which Hughes could pitch out of the pen in April and May (or, alternately, four minor league starts with a five-inning limit, or even five minor league starts with a four-inning limit). Again, that would result in 160 regular season innings and leave him free to make three postseason starts within his 180-innings limit with the possibility of two more World Series starts if needed beyond that limit.

Each of those three scenarios assumes a level of success for both Hughes and the team that is not a foregone conclusion, but even in these best-case scenarios it’s clear that Hughes can’t be used as the fifth starter in April, and likely not in May either lest he be shut down in advance of the playoffs and possibly even before the divisional race is decided. The Yankees will need a fifth starter three times in April and four more times in May. If Pavano gets a splinter, the Yankees will need someone other than Hughes to take those turns. Even if Pavano is able to take the ball each time, the Yankees will need to use spring training to decide who they’ll turn to should the rotation spring a leak elsewhere.

Having reduced the candidates to Karstens, Rasner, and Sanchez, I’m going to further cull the field by eliminating Sanchez. Sanchez didn’t hit triple-A until the middle of last year and made just nine starts at that level before being shut down with tenderness in his pitching elbow. A highly touted prospect in his own right, though certainly not in Hughes’ class, Sanchez should also be handled with kid gloves this year in the hope that he can establish himself in triple-A, stay healthy, and emerge as a candidate for the 2008 rotation or, in a best-case scenario, down the stretch this year.

That leaves Karstens and Rasner, the two rotation patches that the Yankees used late last season. Although Karstens is the more familiar face due to his having made six starts last year to Rasner’s three, I’ve always been partial to Rasner. The stats above show why. While both men where rather fortunate on balls in play last year, Karstens was both more fortunate and significantly less likely to record a strikeout, a scary combination that could lead to a huge increase in hits and thus runs allowed this year. What’s more, Karstens has come by his nickname “Scary Fly Ball Guy” (props to Steven Goldman) honestly. Consider the home run rates above. Then consider that Karstens groundball-to-flyball rate last year was 0.67. While that came in a small sample, only one of the 80 major league pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last year had a more extreme fly-ball rate. By comparison, Rasner’s groundball-to-flyball rate, in an admittedly even smaller sample, was 1.13, which would have ranked him a more respectable 51st out of those 80 qualifiers. Karsten edges Rasner in the important category of minor league K/BB ratio, but Rasner edged Karstens in nearly every peripheral stat you can dig up from their major league stints last year and, frankly, I was more impressed with Rasner’s stuff and composure after seeing them both pitch last September. Still, just as Pavano would be keeping the fifth starter spot warm for Hughes, Rasner or Karstens will hopefully be doing no more than that. While Rasner may be a perfectly viable fifth starter, he’d be a significant downgrade from what’s expected of Wang, Moose, Pettitte, or Igawa, and the rest of the cookies Cashman collected this winter still need to bake a bit longer.

So it appears Pitchers and Catchers are even closer to reporting than I thought. Despite MLB listing Thursday, February 15, as the reporting date, it appears the actual date is February 13, tomorrow. Regardless, it’s time to get down to business here at the Banter. Today through Wednesday, I’ll look at the three main position battles that will be taking place in Yankee camp this spring. Then Thursday I’ll post my annual breakdown of Yankee Campers.

The Yankees have more decisions to make in camp this year than they have over the past few seasons. Setting aside the usual decisions regarding the 25th man on the roster or the last man in the bullpen, Joe Torre and his staff will have to choose on a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz, a back-up catcher, and a fifth starter. Today we’ll look a the team’s first-base situation.

The Yankees haven’t entered camp with a question mark in the starting line-up since 2004, when Aaron Boone’s torn ACL set up a third-base battle between the likes of Tyler Houston and Mike Lamb, which then shifted to second base when Alfonso Soriano was dealt to Texas for Alex Rodriguez. Enrique Wilson beat out Miguel Cairo at the keystone that spring, but Cairo—who, for all his shortcomings, was a clearly superior player to Wilson—overtook Wilson mid-season.

The Yankees’ won’t have the luxury of changing their mind at first-base this year. Doug Mientkiewicz enters camp as the established lefty-half of the proposed first-base platoon. Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps, meanwhile, are battling not only to be Mientkiewicz’s right-handed caddy, but for their Yankee careers. Phelps was claimed from the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft back in December. If the Yankees want to remove him from the 25-man roster at any point this season, they must offer him back to Baltimore. Phillips, meanwhile, is out of options and will have to be placed on waivers if he fails to make the Opening Day roster. The stakes is high.

In addition to being the only of these three decisions that the Yankees can’t change their minds about later, the righty first-baseman battle is also the only of the three that is a simple either/or matter with just two players vying for the position. Here’s a quick look at Phillips and Phelps:

It’s clear from their career minor league numbers that Phillips and Phelps are very similar hitters. Both are right-handed, of course, and generate their power with quick bats rather than excessive bulk. From those raw numbers, Phelps would seem to have a bit more power as well as a smidge more strike zone judgment (career mL isolated discipline of .072 to Phillips’ .067), but consider Phelps’ 2006 triple-A numbers above next to Phillips’ 2005 triple-A numbers of .300/.379/.573 in 300 at-bats, or Phillips’ 2004 triple-A stats of .318/.388/.569 in 434 at-bats. Phillips was 28 in 2005 just as Phelps was last year, and both were playing in the International League in similar home hitting environments in Toledo (Phelps) and Columbus (Phillips)—hitting environments that, in terms of raw park factors, are very similar to Yankee Stadium. Consider also Phillips’ superior career minor league K/BB rate: Phillips 1.85 K/BB, Phelps 2.57 K/BB.

Ultimately, what differentiates Phelps from Phillips is major league experience. Phillips, who played college ball at the University of Alabama, made his professional debut at age 22 and earned the Yankees’ Minor League Player of the Year award in his age-25 season, based primarily on a tremendous half season at double-A Norwich. Phelps, meanwhile, was drafted straight out of his Idaho high school, made his major league debut at age 22, and spent his age-25 season hitting .268/.358/.470 as the Blue Jays’ starting DH.

In addition to his late start, Phillips’ progress was derailed by an elbow injury suffered in the Arizona Fall League the autumn after his award winning 2002 season. That injury cost him most of 2003. Thus, instead of establishing himself in Columbus that year and challenging Cairo and Wilson for the open second base job in 2004 (originally a third baseman, Phillips played second base from 2001 to 2003), he was forced to reestablish himself in double-A that spring and was shifted back to third base where he was blocked by Alex Rodriguez. All of that, plus the fact that he was attempting to break into a much tougher lineup in the Bronx than Phelps was in Toronto, put him five years behind his rival’s pace. In terms of major league experience, Phelps’ age-22 to 24 seasons correspond to Phillips’ age-27 to 29 seasons:

The obvious difference here being not only the five-year age gap, but the fact that Phelps hit when finally given the opportunity, while Phillips did not. Even Phelps’s worst major league season of more than 12 at-bats, his .251/.304/.450 performance in 371 at-bats split between Toronto and Cleveland in 2004, was clearly better than what Phillips did last year. Speaking of which, here are their career major league K/BB rates: Phillips 4.38 K/BB, Phelps 3.66 K/BB.

If this decision was based purely on the relative offensive merits of these two players, one would have to consider Phelps, who’s more than a year Phillips’ junior, the clear favorite despite the similarity of their minor league records and Phillips’ unfairly small major league sample.

However, offense is just part of the picture. All of the decisions the Yankees have made regarding first base this winter have been made with defense in mind, from declaring Jason Giambi a full-time designated hitter to signing Doug Mientkiewicz as the dominant half of an expected first-base platoon. Of course the jury’s still out on Mientkiewicz’s defensive abilities. He’s a thirtysomething coming off back surgery and the defensive metrics are mixed as to exactly how good he was even before the surgery. Baseball Prospectus’s Rate stats show Mientkiewicz experiencing a steady decline since 2002 with his defense being considerably blow average in each of the last two years. Then again, Dave Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range has Minky up among the elite at the position last year, as is his reputation. But regardless of whether or not Mientkiewicz is still an asset in the field, the message sent by the front office is clear: defense matters.

That’s bad news for Phelps. Phillips’ defensive stats from 2006 largely echo Mientkiewicz’s. Rate has him a tick below Minky, while Pinto ranks him between Nick Johnson and Kevin Youkilis, comfortably above average. Despite his struggles at the plate, Phillips’ defense made a strong impression on Joe Torre last year. Andy can also fill in at third-base and play second and the outfield corners in a pinch—all of which he’s done for the Yankees over the last two seasons. That gives him extra value coming off the bench, which he’d be doing in the majority of the Yankees’ games. Phelps, meanwhile, is generally regarded as a defensive zero. A disaster as a catcher, Phelps has been limited to DH and first base since the age of 24 and has played in the field in just 31 of his 342 major league games since, a mere 9 percent. If that’s not a damning indictment of his defensive abilities, I don’t know what is. By comparison, Phillips has played the field in 91.5 percent of his 142 major league. In raw numbers, Phillips has played defense in more than four times as many major league games as Phelps despite appearing in just two-fifths as many major league games total.

The good news for Phelps is that his Rate stats, while poor and burdened by impossibly small samples, show an improvement trend that suggests that he may have needed a few seasons to learn his new position. Still, I expect that Phillips—who has the added advantage of being a familiar face who seemed to be popular in the Yankee clubhouse last year—will have the inside track to the right-handed first baseman’s job as spring training begins. I also expect that, while both players will have to hit in order to win the job, Phelps’ defense will be watched very closely by Torre and his coaches. If Phelps crushes the ball, but makes a few ugly plays around the bag, he just might be headed back to Baltimore. After all, if the Yankees were willing to field a first-baseman with an iron glove they could have skipped signing Mientkiewicz, kept Giambi and his persistant positional splits in the field, put Hideki Matsui at DH, started the defensively superior Melky Cabrera in left, and given Minky’s roster spot to Bernie williams or, better yet, Aaron Guiel or Kevin Thompson.

One week to go until Pitchers and Catchers. As reported yesterday via LoHud, Jorge Posada and Kei Igawa are already in Tampa. MLB.com adds Derek Jeter, Miguel Cairo, center field prospect Brett Gardner and fifth starter hopefuls Jeff Karstens, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, and Phil Hughes. Hey, that’s enough for a pick-up team!

Multi-media time, folks. Check out frequent Bronx Banter commenter and author of Canyon of Heroes and Matsuzaka Watch and proud new papa Mike Plugh as he discusses the Red Sox’s new ace on Baseball Prospectus Radio. Also, check out Matsuzaka Watch for Mike’s counter interview with BP Radio host Will Carroll and a pretty bad-ass Matsuzaka/Red Sox-themed Japanese beer commercial.

Another audio hit for you iPod owners out there, and a bit of shameless semi-self promotion, check out this podcast with Newsday‘s David Lennon and the Daily News‘s Roger Rubin, authors of The Great New York Sports Debate, a book I had a part in editing (more like a cameo, but a part nonetheless).

While we’re on the interview tip, check out this Sports Illustrated piece with Baseball-Reference’s Sean Forman (hat tip to Dodger Thoughts for the link). The new features on B-Ref that incorportate Retrosheet’s box score data are tremendous, if you haven’t full explored the splits and game logs and other additional features added this winter, be sure to take the time to do so.

As for actual Yankee-related news, the best I can do right now is this item on Mel Stottlemyre joining the Diamondbacks as an organizational pitching instructor, which also points out that Goose Gossage will be in Yankee camp as instructor for the first time in a few seasons, neither of which is really new information. Speaking of Yankee camp, Jorge Posada and Kei Igawa are already there, according to Peter Abraham. Man, I can almost taste the hot dogs . . .

Cory Lidle’s back in the news as the National Transportation Safety Board has released the details of its investigation into his fatal small plane crash. Unfortunately, they have been unable to determine whether Lidle or his flight instructor, Tyler Stanger, who was also killed in the accident, was actually flying the plane when it crashed, which leaves Lidle’s family in a lurch regarding a $1.05 million accidental death benefit. In fact, there’s very little new information in this AP story whatsoever. What they have determined is that the ban on small planes flying below 1,100 feet over the East River enacted after Lidle’s accident should be made permanent, but even that is merely a recommendation to the Federal Aviation Administration.

In other news, the Associated Press noticed that Jorge Posada’s contract is up after this year and that he doesn’t yet have an extension. I’m sure he’ll get one in time. The only other Yankees playing on multi-year deals whose contracts expire after this season are Mike Myers and Joe Torre, and Mariano Rivera, who is playing out his option this year. Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettitte have options for 2008. This season could change a lot, but I expect extensions for Jorge and Mo and Abreu’s option to get picked up. Myers won’t be back. As for Joe and Andy . . . difficult to see, always in motion is future.

Football is my second favorite sport after baseball, and the stretch between the Super Bowl and Opening Day has always felt like a long, dreary, entertainment-free wasteland to me. I can’t force myself to care about college sports, so March Madness leaves me flat (even though I finished second in the only NCAA bracket pool I ever entered), and the selection of movies this time of year is the absolute pits, especially once the Oscars pass and the re-released contenders looking to build buzz disappear from the theaters. Of course, some of that has changed since I started blogging, as the need to cover spring training involves me in those games even though precious few of them are aired even on the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network, which tends to stick to the Yankees’ home games, and none of them count. Of course, the day we all look forward to all winter is Pitchers and Catchers, which is just ten days away, but really that’s a whole lot of nothing. There are no games to watch until March arrives and all the reports prior to then are all the same sort of empty optimism that occurs every year. Heck, we’ve already heard that from Crash Pavano. (Incidentally, Pavano is technically not on the 60-day DL, but he’ll be listed that way on the sidebar until he throws in his second spring training game. In the words of our president, “Fool me once, shame on . . . shame on you . . . you fool me . . . you can’t get fooled again.”)

Between then and now, all that’s left is Bernie Williams’ decision on the Yankees’ offer of a minor league contract and non-roster invite to spring training. The latest is that he’s leaning toward accepting with the idea that he’d retire if he doesn’t make the team. That sounds reasonable enough, though I worry that would leave the final decision in Joe Torre’s hands, and I can just see Joe finding a way to squeeze Bernie onto the roster should he have a few good spring at-bats. In other roster news, Matt DeSalvo, who was designated for assignment to make room for Miguel Cairo on the 40-man roster, cleared waivers and has accepted a non-roster invite of his own.

In the meantime, here’s a fluff piece on Joe Girardi, who will rejoin the YES team this year as well as co-host a show called “Behind the Plate” with John Flaherty, and some fluff on former Mets prospect and new Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan. Lastly, Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith coaching in the Super Bowl prompts a less than encouraging look at baseball’s hiring practices.

When the Yankees announced their spring training invitees a little less than two weeks ago (see the list under “Players” on the sidebar), I was struck by the absence of one name: J. Brent Cox. As it turns out, Cox, who is widely regarded as one of the organization’s ten-best prospects, has a broken bone in his pitching hand and will thus get a late start to his third professional season. Mystery solved, thanks to super sleuth Peter Abraham.

Peter also provides this link to Michael Kay’s Tuesday interview with Bobby Murcer, who plans to return to broadcasting as soon as spring training. Much as hearing Kay’s voice (and dreadful theme song) makes my skin crawl, it’s great to hear Murcer. In addition to his good spirits and strong voice, his graciousness with Kay’s callers is tremendous.

The Yankees will hold a press conference today to announce a new “international venture,” which Murray Chase believes will have something to do with Randy Levine, Brian Cashman, and Jean Afterman’s upcoming trip to China and Japan.

Jorge Posada made a few comments about Bernie Williams before Tuesday’s Baseball Assistance Team (BAT) dinner, unleashing a torrent of articles all of which have used the same quotes. The gist of Jorge’s jive: Bernie won’t play for another team, Bernie won’t sign a minor league deal, Bernie wants to play one more year. Sounds like Bernie’s in denial. Tyler Kepner‘s version of the story suggests that Bernie could take that minor league deal and then retire in a Yankee uniform in spring training like Al Leiter did last year. Jorge suggests that Bernie might take the Roger Clemens rout and stay in shape in the hope of being needed at some point during the season. Again, I think Bernie’s setting himself up for disappointment.

Major League Baseball will officially announce on Wednesday January 31 that the 2008 All-Star Game will take place in Yankee Stadium. The announcement is expected to take place at City Hall.

Bob Timmerman over on the Griddle has a link to a story about Aaron Guiel and his decision to play in Japan this year.

Finally, on the topic of erstwhile Yankee first basemen, the Devil Rays appear to be close to inking former Columbus Clipper Carlos Peña to a minor league contract. They’ll already have Hee-Seop Choi in camp. Either of those lefties would have been preferable to Stinky Minky.

The big story yesterday was that Robinson Cano has switched his uniform number from 22 to 24 in anticipation of the still entirely speculative arrival of free agent Roger Clemens, who has worn number 22 for the Yankees and Astros since early 1999. The story was broken by the New York Post‘s Michael Morrissey, who reported that the team asked Cano to make the switch. Subsequent articles on ESPN and MLB.com reported that it was Cano that approached the team with the idea for the switch. An MLB.com radio interview with the writer of the later piece, Bryan Hoch, provided a clue to the most likely scenario. Since rosters are currently being finalized and uniforms tailored, the Yankees likely approached Cano about the possibility of having to switch numbers mid-season, offering to let him switch now instead. Cano likely opted to switch now–no doubt with some gentle nudging from the team looking for some cheap headlines in a slow news cycle and a chance to make an overture to Clemens–and the team subsequently spun the decision as Cano’s. For what it’s worth, Cano wore number 14 when first called up in May of 2005 and is named after Jackie Robinson, whose number 42 is the inverse of 24 (and is already taken by Mariano Rivera and otherwise retired throughout baseball). Tino Martinez was wearing number 24 during Cano’s rookie year when he switched from 14 to 22. Last year 24 was only used briefly by Sidney Ponson.

As for Clemens, he was seen sporting one of his Yankee World Series rings at the Sundance Film Festival over the weekend, which suggests to me that the chances of him returning to the Bronx are excellent. Last season Clemens made public appearances wearing Astros gear prior to resigning with the team. Per Morrissey’s article, Clemens’s agent, Randy Hendricks, recently said that Roger’s decision won’t come until after the start of spring training and possibly not until after the start of the regular season. Last year, Clemens didn’t sign with the Astros until May 31 and didn’t make his first start for them until June 22 (there’s that number again). By then the 20-year-old Philip Hughes very well may have eliminated the Yankees’ need for the 44-year-old Rocket. Either way, by June the Yankees look to be in a great position regarding the rotation spot vacated by the Randy Johnson trade.

In other non-news, Bernie Williams‘ retirement is looking increasingly imminent as the Yankees don’t appear to be willing to offer him anything beyond a minor league contract and an invite to spring training where he really wouldn’t even have a job to fight for.

Finally, Yahoo!’s Tim Brown takes a look at former Yankee prospect and 1998 World Series hero Ricky Ledee who has been through seven organizations in his nine-year career and may very well have run out of employers at the age of 33. Whenever I think of Ledee, who was sent to Cleveland in the David Justice deal in mid-2000, I recall his pre-game interviews with Michael Kay on WABC in which Ricky, fighting Shane Spencer and Chad Curtis for the left field job, repeatedly insisted “I weel heet” in a tone of voice that betrayed his lack of belief in what he was saying. Outside of a few small samples, he never did hit.

While I was trapped in a small room and chained to BP07, the Yankees made three moves which directly impact their 25-man roster for the coming season. Among the comments to my previous post were a few requests for me to weigh in on those three moves, which, having been so gently prodded, I intend to do. I need to shake off some rust and get back in fighting shape here, so I’ll start with the least significant of the three, the decision to re-sign infielder Miguel Cairo for $750,000 for the coming season.

One can infer my initial reaction from what I wrote about Cairo in my infield post mortem back in November:

The Yankees got something of a career year out of Cairo in 2004, then botched resigning him, leading to the eminently regrettable Tony Womack deal. Cairo fell back to replacement level as a Met in 2005, but Brian Cashman, perhaps overeager to right the previous offseasons’s supposed wrong, rather than considering Cairo a bullet dodged, gave him a million-dollar contract for 2006. Cairo rewarded Cashman’s good deed by repeating his Met performance almost exactly. Here’s hoping the Yankees have learned their lesson.

That lesson, of course, being: Cairo’s 2005 was a fluke, move on. Sadly, that lesson has gone unheeded.

Lamenting the state of the Yankee bench in recent years, I took a look at the Yankee reserves over the entire Joe Torre era, which now consists of eleven full seasons. Here are the Yankees’ primary middle infield reserves over that period:

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USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale has some interesting notes on Brian Cashman and the Randy Johnson trade. In addition to revealing the degree to which the Johnson deal was influenced by Randy’s unhappiness in New York, the article contains some remarks from Cashman confirming the approach that has been evident on the transaction wire. Sez Cash: “I’ve been very vocal and stated our goals. We want to reduce payroll, improve our farm system, get younger and have more flexibility.” Can’t get much clearer than that.

Speaking of the Johnson deal, about which I’m surprisingly lukewarm, the Yankees inked Luis Vizcaino, the homer-happy righty setup man they acquired in the deal, to a one-year, $3-million contract on Wednesday, thus settling with their only arbitration-eligible player.

On a personal note, my apologies for my disappearance from this space over the past month. I’ve just finished editing Baseball Prospectus 2007, a monstrous task, as you may have heard from my cohort Steven Goldman (Steve and Christina Kahrl are BP’s editors on the book; starting with this year’s edition and for the next two years, I am the publishing house’s editor). With that done, I’m back in action as we hurtle toward pitchers and catchers, which is now just 27 days away.

The Yankees declined to tender Aaron Guiel a contract yesterday, making the outfielder-cum-first baseman a free agent. Guiel was the only player the Yankees had to make a decision on at yesterday’s non-tender deadline.

Assuming Jason Giambi will get most of his at-bats as a DH, dropping Guiel from the roster leaves the Yankees without a lefty first baseman to platoon with the winner of the Phelps-Phillips battle set to take place in spring training. Not that Phelps and Phillips are exceptionally disadvantaged against their fellow righties. Phillips has actually done most of his damage in the majors against righties. Twenty-three of Andy’s 27 extra base hits and more than two-thirds of his walks have come against rightes despite his having less than twice as many plate appearances against righties as against lefties. Phelps, meanwhile, has a career .257/.325/.460 line against righties, which, by trading some OBP for slugging, is almost exactly league average. That’s not great, but it’s permissible, especially when he hits .293/.357/.500 against lefties and earns the league minimum.

As for what else is out there, here are the career splits vs. righties of Phelps and the remaining free agent lefty-hitting first basemen:

The only players there that would represent a meaningful improvement over Phelps are Peña, to a very small degree, and Klesko. We’ve already seen that Phelps and Peña are alarmingly similar hitters. So if Phelps is good enough from the right side, it would make a certain amount of sense to give Peña a second chance to make the team in the spring.

Klesko, meanwhile, is a curious case. Despite the way he dominates the chart above, he missed nearly all of 2006 following shoulder surgery after suffering an alarming power outage in 2005. One line of thought attributes the power outage to the shoulder problems that have theoretically been fixed by the surgery, which could suggest a surprising up-tick in production for 2007. Another is that after that weak showing in ’05 and what amounts to a year off at age 35, the Ryan Kelsko who put up that .310 career GPA against righties may be gone forever.

Another interesting angle on Klesko is that he has actually spent the majority of his career playing left field. That’s a good thing in terms of the position flexibilty the Yankees might require in order to carry what amounts to a third first baseman, but is also a concern as Klesko was actually the Padres starting left fielder in 2004 and 2005, meaning he hasn’t been a regular first baseman since 2003. In addition to that, he’s never been considered a good fielder at either position, where as the reports on Peña have at the very least been conflicted, meaning someone out there thinks he’s a strong gloveman.

Still, as the two combined for 37 major league at-bats in 2006 (33 of which were Peña’s), both players should come cheap enough that it would be worth a gamble to bring them to camp. As it stands now, their roster spot would likely otherwise go to Bernie Williams. Consider:

12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers)
9 starters (including, for our purposes here, the righty half of the 1B platoon)
3 bench spots used on Melky, utility infielder and back-up catcher

That’s 24 men. There’s one spot left for another bench bat, and a left first baseman, preferably with some outfield experience, seems like the best way to use it. I can’t see Bernie learning first base and he’s essentially a righty bat at this point. There haven’t even been whispers about moving Hideki Matsui to first base (which actually would open up a job for Bernie as he could be a righty bench bat/outfielder behind lefties Damon and Abreu and switch-hitter Cabrera). Best I can tell, Juan Miranda won’t see the big leagues this year prior to expanded rosters, if at all. It would seem that, baring a trade, Klesko and Peña are the only remaining options. Though to be completely honest, I wouldn’t complain if the Yankees brought Guiel back. Having a lefty bench bat with some pop, some patience and the ability to play first and all three outfield positions isn’t a bad consolation prize, even if the pop and patience isn’t quite up to the standards of the other two.

ESPN deportes is reporting that the Yankees have signed 23-year-old Cuban defectee Juan Miranda to a four year contract worth $4 million. Miranda is a lefty-hitting outfielder/first baseman with some pop. Miranda, who was on the 2001 Cuban national team (he would have been 18 at the time if his given age is correct), defected to the Dominican Republic in early 2004 and has since become a Dominican citizen. This is pretty much everything I can find on this guy, who will likely spend 2007 in the minors even though his contract requires that he be placed on the 40-man roster.

Updated Sept. 27, 2007 and Sept. 18, 2009

This is a rainy day post I’ve wanted to do for years. Thanks to the tremendous YankeeNumbers.com, and in the spirit of Jon Weisman’s recent All-Time Dodger Alphabet Team, I’m pleased to present the Yankees by the Numbers. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

A quick bit of history before I begin: though often credited as such, the Yankees were not the first major league team to wear numbers. The Indians wore numbers on their left sleeves for several weeks in 1916, but abandoned the practice after another brief period of use in 1917. The 1923 Cardinals were the next to try, the numbers again appearing on the players’ left sleeves, but quickly removed them because the players were “embarrassed.” Both the Indians and the Yankees were set to begin the 1929 season with numbers on their backs, but a rainout in the Bronx gave the Indians the precedent. Still, the 1929 Yankees were, along with the Indians, the first team to wear numbers for a full season. Here’s where the legend synchs back up with reality. Those 1929 Yankees wore numbers that corresponded with what was likely their opening day line-up, thus the original single digits were:

1 – Earl Combs (CF)
2 – Mark Koenig (3B)
3 – Babe Ruth (RF)
4 – Lou Gehrig (1B)
5 – Bob Meusel (LF)
6 – Tony Lazzeri (2B)
7 – Leo Durocher (SS)
8 – Johnny Grabowski (C)

Catchers Benny Bengough and rookie Bill Dickey wore numbers 9 and 10 (Dickey won the starting job that year and took Grabowski’s #8 in 1930). Top pitchers Herb Pennock, Waite Hoyt and George Pipgras wore numbers 11, 12 and 14 (the Yankees skipped #13 for the usual reasons).

Enjoy . . .

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For the first time in eleven years, the Yankees have claimed a player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Back in December 1995, the player they claimed from the Brewers was Marc Ronan, a then-26-year-old catcher who had caught six games for new Yankee manager Joe Torre’s Cardinals in 1993. Those six games were destined to be Ronan’s only major league appearances. With the newly acquired Joe Girardi, Jim Leyritz and a rookie named Jorge Posada in camp, Ronan was cut in spring training. This year, the Yankees’ claim is far more compelling: former Baseball Prospectus cover boy Josh Phelps.

Phelps fits the description of the right-handed power-hitting first baseman the Yankees were looking for, though whether or not he does so any more than Andy Phillips, who is still on the roster, or Craig Wilson, who may yet be resigned, is questionable. Phelps, now 28, came up with the Blue Jays as a catcher and, arriving directly from double-A, went 0 for 13 in two sips of coffee in 2000 and 2001. In 2002 he abandoned catching and split the year between triple-A Syracuse and Toronto, mashing the ball in both places as a DH/first baseman. It was at this point that Phelps became a cover boy. At age 24, he was drawing comparisons to a young Dale Murphy, another tall, lean, powerful, right-handed-hitting converted catcher. Pegged as a future star in Toronto, Phelps suffered a slight sophomore slump in 2003. When his struggles got even worse in 2004, the Blue Jays dealt him to Cleveland for never-was Eric Crozier. Phelps did better with the Indians, hitting .303/.338/.579 over the remainder of the season, but departed for Tampa Bay as a free agent that winter. In Tampa, Phelps lost his DH job to Jonny Gomes after hitting .266/.328/.424 through June 5. He hasn’t appeared in the majors since then, but he had his best season since 2002 with triple-A Toledo in the Tigers’ system last year. Coming off that .303/.370/.532 season, Phelps signed a minor league deal with the Orioles on November 15, but the O’s left him unprotected and the Yankees, against whom Phelps has hit .318/.369/.523 in 107 at-bats over his major league career, snapped him up.

The selection cost the Yankees $50,000 and the Yankees will have to offer Phelps back to Baltimore (in exchange for half of their money back) if they want to remove him from the 25-man roster at any point this season. Phelps will clearly compete directly with Andy Phillips this spring. Since Phillips is out of options, one of the two (if not both should Craig Wilson re-enter the picture) will likely be with another organization come opening day. With that, here’s a chart comparing Phelps, Phillips, Wilson, and a pair of similarly skilled lefty first basemen, Carlos Peña, who made a cameo as a Columbus Clipper in 2006 before making a briefer one in Boston at the end of the year and is once again a free agent, and Hee Seop Choi, who after all the hand wringing we did over his landing with the Red Sox, had an awful, injury-shortened year in Pawtucket and has since signed a minor league deal with the Devil Rays:

Phelps stacks up well against that competition. If anything, his continued search for a major league contract may have as much to do with his glove as his bat. It remains to be seen whether or not Phelps, who has played the field in just 31 of his 343 post-catching major league games, can be trusted at first base. With Jason Giambi locked in at DH, his defense this spring is sure to be closely watched by Joe Torre and his staff. That said, mark Phelps down next to Brian Bruney and Darrell Rasner as further evidence that Brian Cashman and company are on point in all phases of their game.