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Kids Today

The average age of the four starting pitchers in the first two games of the current series in Seattle is 23 3/4. It’s not often that you see a stat like that when the Yankees are involved. Don’t worry. Randy Johnson will compensate tomorrow. Today, however, we Yankee fans can continue to freak out about Chien-Ming Wang’s climbing innings total.

For those who have missed my previous kvetching, Wang set a career high with 157 innings pitched last year between the minors, majors and postseason. Entering tonight’s game, he’s thrown 172 1/3 innings and hasn’t been sharp in any of his last three starts. His combined line in those outings is: 16 1/3 IP, 27 H, 12 R, 3 HR, 8 BB, 6 K, 2.14 WHIP, 6.61 ERA. Most alarming of all, despite opening the Boston series with a victory in his last start, he recorded just six of his 18 outs in that game via groundballs, the only time in his major league career (43 starts, two relief appearances) that he has recorded fewer groundouts than flyouts.

Opposing Wang will be deflowered phenom Felix Hernandez. The Yankees got a good look at Hernandez last year when he locked horns in a stirring pitchers duel with his predecessor Randy Johnson. Hernandez lost that battle 2-0 on solo home runs by Robinson Cano and Gary Sheffield, but made a strong showing in 12 starts as a 19-year-old rookie for the M’s, posting a 1.00 WHIP and a 2.67 ERA while striking out 8.22 per nine innings. This year, King Felix has actually increased his strike-out rate, but has seen more dramatic increases in his walk, hit and homer rates, the end result of which is a decidedly average 4.50 ERA. Of course, 4.50 is plenty respectable from a 20-year-old with ace potential, but it’s not going to make anyone forget Doc Gooden. Incidentally, Hernandez, who is at 148 innings pitched thus far this year, threw 149 1/3 innings in 2004 and increased his work load to 172 1/3 last year. That’s a normal innings increase for a young pitcher and further evidence that even if Chien-Ming Wang hasn’t hit his innings ceiling yet, he’s dangerously close.

You Can’t Win (Or Lose) ‘Em All

As expected, the Yankees and Mariners snapped their respective winning and losing streaks last night, the Yanks failing for the fifth time this season to win their sixth straight. To be fair, they played the M’s hard despite having every reason to come out flat in the first game of their west coast swing after their marathon series in Boston.

Rookie Jeffrey Karstens pitched well considering the fact that he was making his major league debut, but exhibited an alarming fly ball tendency that staked the Mariners to a 2-0 lead in the first when Adrian Beltre followed a one-out walk to Chris Snelling with the first of his two home runs on the night. The Yanks got that back plus one in the top of the third when, with two outs, Johnny Damon doubled, Derek Jeter walked and Bobby Abreu took Mariner rookie Cha Seung Baek out to left center for his second Yankee home run, but Richie Sexson tied the score with bomb to the upper deck in left of Karstens in the bottom of the inning.

With the game tied 3-3 the Yankees appeared to take control. Karstens retired the next ten batters he faced and with a man on in the sixth, Alex Rodriguez crushed a 1-2 pitch from lefty reliever Eric O’Flaherty to give the Yankees a 5-3 lead. Rodriguez’s shot was a monster, arching straight into one of the upper deck exits in left just beyond where Sexson’s shot landed.

With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Karstens surrendered a single to Jose Lopez, his first baserunner since Sexson’s homer, then fell behind lefty Ben Broussard 2-0, the second ball being a wild pitch that sent Lopez to second base. With that, Joe Torre hooked the rookie, who threw 66 percent of 92 pitches for strikes, and brought in Mike Myers only to have Mike Hargrove counter with Broussard’s former Cleveland platoon-mate, Eduardo Perez.

Stuck with a LOOGY against a lefty-killer, Torre had Myers issue two intentional balls to complete the walk, then pulled him for Jaret Wright, working out of the pen on this throw day. It was a managerial blunder by Torre, who should have realized that Hargrove would counter his move. Given his desire to rest his pen, Torre should have either stuck with Karstens or had the rookie issue the IBB and gone straight to Wright, thus avoiding wasting Myers.

Wright escaped the inning with one pitch to Yuniesky Betancourt, but ran into trouble in the seventh. With one out in the seventh, Ichiro Suzuki singled, Chris Snelling doubled, and Adrian Beltre worked a five-pitch walk from Wright. Richie Sexson then hit a grounder to short, but a hard slide form Adrian Beltre swept Nick Green’s legs out from under him as he tried to make the pivot, preventing the double play. Suzuki scored on the play to pull the M’s within one, and, having burned Myers, Joe Torre was forced to turn to Ron Villone to face lefty Raul Ibañez. The overworked Villone’s first three pitches were out of the zone and, after a gimme 3-0 strike, Ibañez singled Snelling home to tie the game. Villone then fell behind Lopez 2-0, but got the Mariner second baseman to fly out to end the inning.

The Yankees looked to get one of those runs back in the top of the eight when Bernie Williams greeted Rafael Soriano by drawing a four-pitch walk, but Melky Cabrera failed to force Soriano to throw a strike, instead bunting a 1-0 pitch right back to the mound for a fielder’s choice. After pinch-hitter Robinson Cano similarly flied out on a 2-0 count, Soriano, after finally throwing a pair of strikes to Johnny Damon, picked Cabrera off first to end the inning.

The Yankees had blown an even better opportunity in the previous inning when, with one out and the bases loaded, Jorge Posada swung at the first pitch he saw and grounded into an inning-ending double play. Again in the ninth, the Yankees had men on first and second for Alex Rodriguez, but eventual winner Julio Mateo struck out the Yankee third baseman on four pitches to end the inning. Adrian Beltre then lead off the bottom of the ninth by shooting a chest-high pitch from Ron Villone just over the right field wall to give the Mariners a 6-5 win.

Down in Anaheim, the Sox also lost a one-run game, so the Yankees 6.5 game lead holds. No harm, no foul, even if this was a game the Yankees should have won.

Seattle Mariners

It goes without saying that the Yankees are in prime position to suffer something of a lull after their spectacular five game sweep of the Red Sox. After the season’s most invigorating, but also most exhausting series, the Yankees had to travel out to the west coast, where jet lag and the lack of a travel day are sure to have some effect. What’s more, not only are the Yankees coming off a season-defining sweep of the Sox at Fenway, a series which in and of itself tied their longest winning streak of the season (they’ve now won five in a row five times, but have yet to make it six on any of those occasions), but the Mariners are coming off a season-long eleven-game losing streak, all at the hands of their three division rivals. One would think something’s got to give.

To make things even more interesting, tonight’s pitching match-up features two rookie righthanders. One, the Yankees Jeffrey Karstens, who will be making his major league debut, and the other, Korean-born Cha Seung Baek, who will be pitching in the majors for the first time since a cup of coffee in 2004.

Baek was roughed up in all but one of his five major league starts in 2004 and had a terrible year with triple-A Tacoma last year, due largely to his allowing 147 hits in 113 2/3 innings and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. All those runners (a 1.61 WHIP despite decent control) and long balls lead to a 6.41 ERA. In 24 starts for Tacoma this year, the 26-year-old Baek fixed both problems, allowing just 133 hits in 147 innings (1.16 WHIP) and cutting his homer rate by a third. The result has been a 3.00 ERA and a 12-4 record. Safeco Park should help further depress that homer rate, while the URP factor (Unfamiliar Rookie Pitcher) could stymie a worn-out Yankee offense that scored 49 runs in Boston.

As for Karstens, at just 23 he’s encouragingly ahead of schedule, having sped through the Yankee minor league system after being drafted out of Texas Tech University. Not that Karstens is a top level prospect by any stretch of the imagination. As he’s moved up the ladder, his hit and homer rates and ERAs have steadily increased. That said, his strike out rate and K/BB ratio have also steadily improved. Last year, Karstens struck out nearly 8 men per nine innings while walking 2.24, good for a 3.5 K/BB, an impressive mark for a 22-year-old at double-A. He started this year in Columbus but struggled mightily, but dominated on his return to Trenton (6-0, 2.31 ERA, 74 IP, 54 H, 4 HR, 14 BB, 67 K). That earned him a return trip to triple-A in mid-July. His first two starts back in Columbus were average, but then he ran of a string of four one-run outings compiling this aggregate line: 27 IP, 20 H, 4 R (3 ER), 1 HR, 5 BB, 19 K, 0.93 WHIP, 1.00 ERA, 4-0.

While it might be true that the Yankees are rushing Karstens into his first major league start, doing so on the basis of just four admittedly excellent triple-A starts, it’s also true that Karstens is only starting tonight because of the rotation shuffling brought on by Mike Mussina’s tweaked groin (Jaret Wright, who pitched in relief on Saturday, is taking Moose’s turn on Friday, Karstens is taking Wright’s turn tonight), and that the team is much better off seeing what it has in Karstens then wasting a roster spot on the likes of Sidney Ponson. Oh, and for those concerned about his young arm this late in the season, Karstens threw 169 innings last year and is at a mere 146 thus far in 2006.

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The Morning After

With the exception of a dominant starting pitching performance, the last four games have given Yankee fans everything they could have hoped for coming into the five-game showdown with the Red Sox that concludes this afternoon. So what’s left for the finale? After the last four games, I wouldn’t rule anything out, though I’d like to rule out a Red Sox victory.

Cory Lidle, who was activated from the bereavement list yesterday with T.J. Beam returning to Columbus, makes his fourth Yankee start. David Wells takes the hill for the Sox. Wells has spent most of the season on the disabled list with a right knee injury. In fact, he made just two starts prior to his most recent activation at the end of July. Since then he’s taken four turns, the first of which was rough, but the last three of which have been solid. In fact, the 43-year-old Wells looks to be more or less up to his old tricks, surrendering a ton of hits but very few walks and emerging with a 2-1 record and a 2.75 ERA over those three starts.

Joe Torre is sending out a day-game-after-a-extra-inning-night-game/house money line-up against the big lefty, with last night’s heroes Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada, as well as series MVP Johnny Damon, getting the day off, Derek Jeter taking a turn at DH, and Nick Green, Bernie Williams and Sal Fasano in the line-up and in the field. Bernie is a career .211/.256/.355 hitter against Wells and Green and Fasano are a combined 2 for 20 career against Boomer. Melky Cabrera, whose lead-off double against Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth last night was as big as any of the other hits in the game, will lead off.

The Red Sox counter with their usual starting nine, but with Eric Hinske replacing Kevin Youkilis at first base. The Sox, who demoted Jermain Van Buren after his poor performance on Saturday in favor of former Rockies hurler Javier Lopez, have also made yet another move in their bullpen, sending down last night’s loser Craig Hansen and promoting former Texas Ranger Bryan Corey. It is the fourth time in as many days that they’ve shuffled relievers.

No Mercy

Friday’s doubleheader was outsized in almost every way. The distance between the first pitch of game one and the final play of game two was nearly twelve hours, while the combined length of the two games was 8 hours and 41 minutes, with the nightcap setting a record as the longest nine-inning game in major league history. Combined the two teams scored 41 runs on 60 hits, 24 walks and five errors while 17 pitchers (including two appearances each from Mike Myers and Scott Proctor) threw 756 pitches.

The two games were so taxing that they prompted four roster moves, with the Red Sox designating Game 1 starting pitcher Jason Johnson for assignment in order to activate reliever Keith Foulke for Game 2, then designating for assignment Rudy Seanez–who, with his team already down 8-3, threw 43 pitches in the ninth inning of Game 1, allowing four runs on four walks, a pair of singles, and a ball lost in the sun by right fielder Eric Hinske–and calling up reliever Jermaine Van Buren for yesterday’s Game 3.

The Yankees, meanwhile, designated for assignment Game 2 starter Sidney Ponson–who inflated his Yankee ERA to 10.47 by allowing seven runs, six earned, on nine hits in a mere three innings of work–and Brian Bruney–a last-minute pre-series addition to the bullpen who ate up 1 2/3 scoreless innings in Game 2, but threw 56 pitches in the process, rendering himself unavailable for Game 3 at the very least–and bringing up rookie Jeffrey Karstens, who had been considered as an alternate Game 2 starter, and wrongfully exiled lefty-hitting outfielder Aaron Guiel.

With their rosters somewhat replenished and just one game on the card, the Yanks and Sox hoped things could return to normal on Saturday afternoon. You know what they say about the best laid plans?

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Game 2

The Yankees got the job done in Game 1, blowing out the Red Sox 12-4 behind big days from Johnny Damon (3 for 6, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, and a huge sliding catch), Bobby Abreu (4 for 5, 2B, BB, R, SB), and Alex Rodriguez (2 for 5, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R, and a game-saving catch). That means that the pressure is on the Red Sox in the nightcap to take advantage of Sidney Ponson and his 8.78 ERA as a Yankee, lest they fall 3.5 games back in the East with just three games left in this series.

Meanwhile, the Yankees will be satisfied with a split, but did a good job of heating up their bats for 22-year-old rookie Jon Lester. The left-handed Lester had an impressive start to his major league career, posting a 2.38 ERA over his first eight starts despite an ugly walk rate of 5.76 BB/9, but the league seems to be catching up to him. Although his walk rate has drastically improved, Lester has a 6.91 ERA in his last five starts, due in large part to his having surrendered 41 hits in 27 1/3 innings against such offensive powerhouses as the Royals, Mariners, Angels and Orioles.

Overall, Lester has averaged less than 5 2/3 innings per start, which means if Ponson can keep it close (I know, but if), the Yankees will get a crack at the inferior Boston bullpen. Speaking of which, here’s how the first game affected the two pens:

Yankees: Mike Myers retired David Ortiz on five pitches and should be available to do it again in the night cap if needed. Scott Proctor threw a reasonable 15 pitches over 1 2/3 innings. He should be avoided in the night game, but could be used if absolutely necessary and will certainly be available tomorrow. T.J. Beam threw 26 pitches in the ninth. Everyone else, including Mo, Farnsworth, Villone, Dotel and Brian Bruney, is fully rested.

Boston: Manny Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder, and Rudy Seanez are all unavailable for tonight having thrown 28, 39 and a whopping 47 pitches respectively. Rumor has it the Red Sox might activate Keith Foulke for the nightcap to compensate. Though speculation was that Jason Johnson would be designated for assignment to make room for Foulke, I wonder if the Sox might prefer to DFA Seanez, who has been awful this year and struggled to get outs in today’s game, walking four and allowing four runs in an inning and a third. As it stands, the Sox have Papelbon, Timlin, Tavarez and Hansen fully rested.

Game 1

Before I get into the specifics of Game 1, the guys over at NoMaas posted a very quick list of the starters’ ERA+ figures that shows how evenly matched the starters are for this series. Cleaning it up a bit, it looks like this:

Game 1: Wang (118) v Johnson (65)
Game 2: Ponson (51) v Lester (115)
Game 3: Johnson (92) v Beckett (93)
Game 4: Mussina (128) v Schilling (122)
Game 5: Lidle (98*) v Wells (77)
*ERA+ with Phillies only

That chart shows what we already sort of knew, which is that the final three games are very evenly matched, while today’s double-header is evenly mismatched. Given the inequity in today’s pitching match-ups, Game 1 becomes unusually important for the Yankees. Because they’ll be at a tremendous disadvantage in the nightcap (both because of the pitching matchup, but also because Sal Fasano will likely grab the second-game-of-a-doubleheader/night-game-before-a-day-game-start), they need to win this afternoon’s contest. Of course, if they do that, then the same pressure will be applied to the Red Sox in the nightcap, but in either case, if one team gets swept today, it will need to sweep the next three days to pull out a series win.

The Yankees faced Jason Johnson in the Bronx back in mid-June when he was with the Cleveland Indians, touching him up for six runs on ten hits, including a pair of homers by Johnny Damon and Andy Phillips, in 5 2/3 innings. That was Johnson’s penultimate start for Cleveland before being placed on waivers and claimed by the Red Sox. Since joining Boston, Johnson has turned in just one quality start in five tries, that coming against the post-trading deadline Devil Rays. Most recently those cheery O’s tagged him for seven runs in 5 1/2 innings. All totaled, Johnson has posted a 7.20 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and an 0-3 record while donning the crimson hose.

As for Chien-Ming Wang, as he’s passed his career high innings pitched total he’s also hit something of a rough patch. Wang threw a career high 157 innings last year between the minors, majors and his lone postseason start. In his third and fourth most recent starts, both Yankee wins, Wang threw 17 scoreless innings allowing just six hits, but by the end of that stretch he had totaled 156 innings pitched on the season. In his two starts since then, both Yankee loses, he’s posted this line: 10 1/3 IP, 20 H, 9 R, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K. That’s a 7.84 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. He’s now at 166 1/3 innings pitched, a new career high.

To make matters worse, even before he got to his previous innings limit, he’d struggled on the road. Just one of those last two starts came on the road, yet his road ERA is 5.16, due in large part to a .321 opponents’ batting average, which leads to a 1.60 WHIP. He’s also allowed as many home runs on the road as at home despite having thrown only two-thirds as many innings away from the Bronx. This is all rather unsettling heading into something of a must-win game.

Wang has faced Boston three times this season. The first came at Fenway, where he allowed three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings. Many, including myself, argued at the time that Wang should have pitched longer in that game as he had settled down in the later innings, was victimized by several weak bloopers, and was at just 77 pitches when Joe Torre removed him from a 3-3 tie for the just-activated Aaron Small, who would go on to lose the game. The Sox then roughed Wang up but good in his next start against them at Yankee Stadium, scoring seven runs on nine hits, including a Manny Ramirez home run, in six innings. Wang got his revenge just two weeks later, however. Again pitching at home, Wang scattered eight hits while holding the Red Sox to just one run over seven innings at which point Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera shut the door on a 2-1 Yankee win. That last start and Johnson’s incompetence are about the only reason’s for optimism this afternoon. Here’s hoping the Yankees give us a few more.

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Boston Red Sox: The Showdown

If the regular season ended today, just one team from the American League East would make the playoffs. Indeed, with the Central Division emerging as the strongest division in baseball this year, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Wild Card will come out of the East. As a result, the closest thing we’re likely to see to a playoff series between the Red Sox and Yankees this year is the five-game series in Boston that kicks off with the first game of today’s double-header at 1:05.

With that in mind, I thought this would be a good occasion to drag out that old standby, the position-by-position comparison. You’ll see that I do this a bit differently than most, preferring to compare the offense by position in the batting order rather than defensive position in order to avoid absurdities such as comparing Derek Jeter with Alex Gonzalez and Manny Ramirez with Melky Cabrera. That said, I’ll fudge the line-ups slightly to produce closer comps. Also, I should point out that the statistics below, save for those of recently promoted Yankee relievers Octavio Dotel and Brian Bruney, are from Wednesday night. Right, on with it . . .

Leading off, the center fielders:

Name Pos AVG/OBP/SLG EQA SB (%) Notes
Johnny Damon CF .287/.364/.474 .291 21 (75%)
Coco Crisp CF .276/.327/.389 .255 16 (80%) missed a month and a half at the beginning of the season with a broken left index finger

Both of these guys can be expected to perform better than the above numbers in this weekend’s series. Damon has hit .309/.366/.505 on the road this year and is a career .309/.376/.462 hitter in Fenway Park. Crisp, meanwhile, is just hot, having hit .330/.358/.473 since July 23. No matter how you slice it, however, Damon has clearly been the better hitter both this year and over his career.

Next up, a pair of All-Star middle infielders:

Name Pos AVG/OBP/SLG EQA SB (%)
Derek Jeter SS .341/.419/.476 .318 26 (90%)
Mark Loretta 2B .303/.359/.382 .263 3 (75%)

No contest. Jeter is a Hall of Famer having his best season since he was robbed of an MVP the award in 1999.

We’ll fudge a bit with the third place in the order by compare the teams’ beefy, lefty slugging, clutch-hitting, creatively facial-haired, first basemen-turned-designated hitters, despite the fact that the Yankee version actually hits fourth or fifth:

Name Pos AVG/OBP/SLG EQA
Jason Giambi DH .255/.409/.593 .333
David Ortiz DH .287/.399/.624 .333

Ortiz has far more impressive counting numbers than Giambi due to his having 75 more plate appearances, a by-product of several minor injuries suffered by Giambi and Jason’s having played more first base and thus losing late-game at-bats to defensive replacements. Assume both will have equal playing time this weekend and, as their EQA’s show, this is basically a draw. I’ll give the edge to Ortiz as, while he’s actually hit better on the road than at home this year, Giambi’s home-road splits are even stronger in the other direction and he’s historically his below his career averages at Fenway.

Next up two of the best hitters and most highly paid and therefore heavily criticized players in the history of the game:

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Out Of The Way

Before the Yankees can bear down and focus on this weekend’s five-game showdown in Boston, they need to get the last game of their current series with the Orioles out of the way. Fortunately, it’s a day game, which will give them the evening to travel north. Of course, the first game of tomorrow’s doubleheader is at 1:05 as well, and the Red Sox not only don’t have to travel, but don’t have to play today either. But you take what you can get.

Speaking of which, Jaret Wright takes the mound this afternoon. He’s been excellent in his three August starts, which include a 6-inning, 1-run outing against these same Orioles. Overall his August line is: 3-0, 1.65 ERA, 16 1/3 IP, 12 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 K, 1.29 WHIP. I know I said it before his last start, but I have to repeat it, Wright hasn’t allowed a home run since June 16 and has surrendered just four taters in 102 innings on the season.

As was the case when Wright last started against the Orioles, his mound opponent will be Rodrigo Lopez. Lopez gave up five runs in seven innings in that last meeting, suffering the loss despite an excellent 7:1 K/BB ratio. In his one start since then he lasted just 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox, allowing three runs on seven hits, with a still-solid 5:2 K/BB ratio. An even more encouraging statistic is Lopez’s 7.22 road ERA this season.

Here’s hoping the Yanks can pull out a win this afternoon to take their fourth series of the season from the O’s and head into this weekend’s showdown with a 2.5 lead in the East.

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With A Lidle Luck

If you ask me, the Yankees still haven’t seen the real Cory Lidle. In his first start he pitched a mid-week day game during a heat wave with field temperatures reaching 120 degrees. Lidle held the Blue Jays to just one run in that start, but was understandably pulled after the sixth inning despite having thrown just 80 pitches. In his last start, he pitched with a stomach virus and struggled through four innings, leaving after throwing 79 pitches and allowing three Angel runs. Still, despite those complications, Lidle sports a tidy 3.60 ERA as a Yankee having allowed just eight hits and struck out eight in his ten innings for the team.

Tonight, he should be healthy and the temperature should be in the low 80s and falling. If there is any complication it shouldn’t affect Lidle directly, but rather the offense. Twenty-two-year-old Canadian lefty Adam Loewen, who one-hit the Yanks over 6 1/3 innings less than two weeks ago, takes the hill for the Orioles tonight. Of course, the likelihood of Loewen repeating his one-hit performance is very small, especially in light of the pounding he received in Fenway in his last turn (2 1/2 IP, 6 R, 76 pitches). Here’s hoping things swing the Yankees way.

Incidentally, it appears that Octavio Dotel has been activated (with, I assume, Jose Veras being sent down to make room). Here’s Dotel’s aggregate line from his circuitous rehab appearances, which were spread across five leagues, from the New York-Penn League all the way up to the International League:

12 G, 12 1/3 IP, 10 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 19 K

The big four in the Yankee bullpen have been great of late, but with 14 games in the next 13 days, it sure won’t hurt to add those kind of numbers to their mix.

What Did Yogi Say?

Oh yeah, “it ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

No doubt, as late as the middle of the sixth inning last night’s game looked like a replay of Mike Mussina’s last start against the Orioles, when the Yankees mustered just one hit against O’s starter Adam Loewen while Moose allowed just three runs and was saddled with a hard-luck loss.

Indeed, the score was 3-0 O’s after five and a half last night with the Yanks having managed just three singles and a walk through five and O’s starter Erik Bedard having set down eleven Yanks in a row between the first and fifth innings. The Orioles, meanwhile, scored their first run on a one-out solo homer by Kevin Millar in the fifth then got two more in the sixth due in part to yet another Alex Rodriguez error.

Brian Roberts led off the sixth with a double and moved to third when Melvin Mora followed with a single. Miguel Tejada then flied out to right, but Roberts hold at third out of respect for Bobby Abreu’s arm. Alas, Roberts would score anyway as Jay Gibbons followed with a single on an 0-2 pitch. Jeff Conine then hit Mussina’s next offering right at Rodriguez at third, but as Alex charged the ball he got caught on an in-between hop and rather than turning an inning-ending double play he booted the ball and fired wide and late to first as Mora scored with the third Oriole run. Fortunately, Mike Mussina kept it together and picked up his third baseman by retiring the next two batters to strand Gibbons and Conine.

Fortunately, Bedard proved no more durable than Mussina on this night as, after the Yanks made a bit of noise in the fifth when Jorge Posada reached on an slow dribbler to third and Craig Wilson followed him with just the third Yankee single of the night, they finally broke through in the sixth. Jeter lead-off the inning with an infield single and was pushed to third when a pair of seven-pitch walks to Abreu and the mustachioed Jason Giambi loaded the bases for Rodriguez, who promptly redeemed himself with an RBI single.

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Baltimore Orioles

I have to admit. I’m sick and tired of the Orioles. It’s not that they give the Yankees a hard time. The Yankees haven’t lost a season series to the O’s since 1997, when the O’s were the last non-Yankee team to win the AL East. This year, the Yanks are 6-3 against Baltimore, taking 2 of 3 in each of their three series, including a weekend set at Camden Yards just over a week ago. So it’s not that the O’s are troublesome. They’re just oppressively uninteresting.

By this point in the season, Miguel Tejada is typically phoning it in (something we saw in that last series in Baltimore), and without Tejada giving a full effort, who is there on this club that you’re excited to see play? The only guy I can muster much enthusiasm for is closer Chris Ray, but I don’t want to see him pitch because it generally means the Yanks are about to drop a game to a team that shouldn’t beat them. The three game series that starts tonight will be even worse because it’s already being overshadowed by this weekend’s five-game death match in Fenway Park. Still, you have to take it one day at a time and tonight, it’s those flat lining Orioles (who just got swept by the Red Sox) yet again.

The O’s look about the same as they did two weekends ago. They’ve activated Kris Benson and recalled Daniel Cabrera from triple-A, but the Yankees won’t see either in this series. Those two have bumped Bruce Chen and Russ Ortiz back into the bullpen and knocked Winston Abreu and Julio Manon off the roster. Thrilling, ain’t it?

Tonight Mike Mussina takes on Erik Bedard. Moose has had trouble pitching around defensive errors and questionable umpiring of late as he’s reverted to his 2004 and 2005 form, in which well pitched games would often be ruined by one bad inning in which he just couldn’t stop the bleeding. He was the hard-luck loser in the one loss in that last series in Baltimore, allowing three runs in five inefficient innings while Adam Loewen and company one-hit the Yanks. Bedard did not pitch in that series, but has been excellent since late June after a rough start to his season. Starting with eight dominant innings against the Marlins on June 21 (2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K), he’s posted this line:

9 GS, 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 62 1/3 IP, 42 H, 3 HR, 15 BB, 63 K, 0.91 WHIP, 7 QS

The good news for the Yankees is that his two non-quality starts, and only two loses, over that stretch have been his last two. Then again, both were near-misses: 5 1/3 innings, two runs against the Mariners at home, and four runs in seven innings against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Still, the 27-year-old Bedard is another pitcher, like Chien-Ming Wang and Justin Verlander, who is entering uncharted innings territory. After losing most of his 2003 season to Tommy John surgery he threw 142 1/3 innings between the minors and majors in 2004 and 148 2/3 innings in 2005, both setting career highs. This year he’s already thrown 142 2/3 innings. The good news for Bedard and the Orioles is that they can baby him through the rest of the season and won’t lose anything by shutting him down early. The Yankees and Wang don’t have that luxury.

Heaven Is A Place On Earth

After a couple of ugly losses, the Yankees breezed to victory this afternoon on an impossibly beautiful Saturday in the Bronx. Jaret Wright was up to his usual tricks in the first, walking the speedy Chone Figgins on five pitches to start the game and the dangerous Vlad Guerrero on four pitches after a pair of foul outs by Maicer Izturis and Orlando Carbrera. The hot-hitting Juan Rivera then singled to right to plate Figgins, but Guerrero failed to respect Bobby Abreu’s arm and was nailed trying to go first to third when Abreu fired a one-hop strike to Alex Rodriguez to end the inning (it was the first of two crucial baserunning gaffes by the Impaler, who was later picked off second by Jorge Posada to kill an Angel rally in the sixth). That play just might have been the key to the ball game, as Wright settled down from there, facing the minimum over the next three innings and pitching around a pair of walks in the fifth.

Meanwhile, the Yankees got all the runs they needed in the second inning on a pair of home runs by Robinson Cano, a three-run shot, and Johnny Damon, a two-out, two-run job. Cano’s homer was an absolute blast, landing half way up in section 41 of the right field bleachers. I had been concerned about Cano’s loss of power during the first half of the season. His slugging percentage was below .400 as late as June 4 at which point just 14 of his 63 hits had gone for extra bases. Since then, however, he’s smacked another 14 pitches for extra bases over a span of just 35 hits and in his first five games since being activated from the DL six of his nine hits have gone for extra bags, including this afternoon’s dinger, his second in four games which accounts for a full third of his 2006 home run total. As for Damon, his shot just cleared the right field wall and slipped into the old Yankee bullpen. It was Damon’s 16th homer of the year, putting him on pace for 23 on the season. His current career high is 20. Ten of those 16 homers have come at Yankee Stadium, all of them going to the short porch in right.

The Angels picked up a run off Scott Proctor in the seventh when rookie Howie Kendrick doubled into the gap in left, Adam Kennedy singled him to third, and Jose Molina scored him with a sac fly to right that knuckled on Abreu, preventing him from setting his feet for a strong throw to the plate. But that was all they’d get. Farnsworth and Rivera followed Proctor with a pair of perfect innings, both requiring just ten pitches eight of which were strikes, and the Yankees evened the series with a 5-2 win.

The series will now be decided by a pair of fantastic pitching match-ups, emerging Yankee ace (at least at home) Chien-Ming Wang against rookie sensation Jered Weaver tomorrow afternoon, and all-or-nothing future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson against John Lackey, who at age 27 is suddenly the veteran ace of this exciting young Angels rotation, Monday night. If this weather holds up, and it should, we’re in for a real treat.

Los Angelinos

Like the rest of their division, the Angels are average. They’re in the middle of the pack in hitting and pitching, barely over .500, yet just 3.5 games behind the first place A’s, but also just 2.5 games ahead of the last-place M’s. Ho hum.

If there’s anything compelling about this Angels team, which is enduring Vlad Guerrero’s least productive season since he was a 21-year-old rookie with the Expos in 1997, it’s the glimpses into their future this season has brought. Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Moralis, Mike Napoli and tonight’s starter Joe Saunders have all made their major league debuts this season, though with varying success.

As for Saunders, he’s made three starts since being called up to replaced the injured Bartolo Colon in the rotation, each of them nearly identical to the next. Here’s his average line: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K. He did something like that against Cleveland, Oakland and Texas in his first three starts, winning each. Tonight, however, will be his first major league road start. It will be interesting to see how the 25-year-old lefty from Falls Church, Virgina responds to his first appearance in Yankee Stadium.

Cory Lidle, meanwhile, will be making just his second start as a Yankee, both coming in home pinstripes. In his last, eight days ago, he held the Blue Jays to one run on a solo homer by rookie Ryan Roberts, allowing just three other hits, walking two and striking out five in six innings on a brutally hot afternoon (the box score temperature was 97 degrees and you know it was well into triple digits on the field). With the weather having cooled nicely (beautifully, in fact, current temp is 77 with a soft breeze), the hope is that Lidle can go deeper tonight. After all, it only took him 80 pitches to get through those six innings last week.

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Missed Opportunity

On the night that the Red Sox were swept by the major league worst Royals, the Yankees failed to take advantage, dropping the rubber game of their series in Chicago due not to the strengths of their opponent, but to their own ineptitude.

Things started promisingly after a 90-minute rain delay with Johnny Damon doubling off Javier Vazquez, Derek Jeter reaching on an infield single and Bobby Abreu moving both runners up via a fly out to the weak-armed Scott Podsednick in deep left. But Alex Rodriguez struck out and Jorge Posada followed a Jason Giambi walk by lining out on the first pitch he saw, leaving the bases loaded. The Yanks stranded a Robinson Cano leadoff double in the top of the second, then melted down in the bottom of the inning.

Mike Mussina started things off by clipping Jermaine Dye in the hand with a 2-2 pitch, then surrendered a single to A.J. Pierzynski that moved Dye to second. Joe Crede then hit a grounder to Alex Rodriguez that looked like a possible double play ball only Rodriguez threw the ball wide of second and into right field, plating Dye and putting runners on the corners. Alex Cintron then singled home Pierzynski and, when the ball skipped under Melky Cabrera’s glove on the wet outfield grass, Crede scored and Cintron motored into second. Mussina then struck out Brian Anderson for the first out, but allowed another RBI single to Podsednick to run the score to 4-0 before getting the final two outs of the inning.

The Yanks got two back in the top of the third on an Abreu walk and a two-run Giambi homer, but that was all the action until the sixth. In the meantime, the Yankees stranded seven more runners–a two-out Cano double in the third (Wilson K), three men in the fourth (Giambi K), a two-out Wilson single in the fifth (Melky foul out), and two more in the sixth (a shallow Rodriguez fly and another Giambi K).

Mike Mussina, who settled down nicely after the second inning, got the first two outs in the bottom of the sixth on six pitches, at which point he had retired nine of the last ten batters he’d faced and 13 of 16 since Podsednick’s RBI single in the second. He then got ahead of the weak-hitting Brian Anderson 1-2 only to have Anderson foul off two pitches and take a borderline strike that home plate ump Bill Miller called ball two. Moose had taken several steps to the dugout when he heard the call and, forced back onto the mound, served up a two-out double on his next pitch. That man Podsednick then singled home Anderson with a crucial insurance run.

You see, in the top of the seventh, after reliever Brandon McCarthy struck out Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano, Craig Wilson doubled and Melky Cabrera deposited McCarthy’s very next pitch in the right field seats for his third home run in the last four games and the first no-doubter of his young major league career. With that the Yankees pulled within one, but despite a strong relief performance by Scott Proctor and a two-out rally in the top of the ninth against Sox closer Bobby Jenks, they were unable to make up that last run, losing 5-4.

Still, the Yanks finish the season with a 4-2 record against the defending World Champs and current Wild Card leaders, while the Red Sox remain three games out in the AL East and are now two games out in third place in the Wild Card race. Ain’t so bad. Plus the Yanks are coming home for a seven-game home stand that starts tonight against the Angels. More on them this afternoon.

My Moose Take

The good news is that, with the Red Sox having lost their first two games to the Royals, the Yankees could lose tonight and still finish the three-game stretch in which they played the defending World Champs while their rivals played the worst time in baseball without having lost a game in the standings.

The bad news is this trend I just noticed in Mike Mussina’s game log:

First 12 GS: 7-1, 2.42 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, 7.16 H/9, 0.96 WHIP, 0.99 HR/9, 12 QS, 6.81 IP/GS
Last 12 GS: 6-3, 4.65 ERA, 8.29 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 8.67 H/9, 1.20 WHIP, 1.13 HR/9, 6 QS*, 5.97 IP/GS

*would likely have been seven, but he was forced out of his June 30 game after allowing no hits over four innings because of a long rain delay

The more than two extra runs per game (!) seem to be the result of his increased number of baserunners. Moose has been getting hit harder and more often, and that might be the result of a slight loss of command that has also inflated his walk rate (though note that his K rate has also increased). More runners mean more pitches and more pitches and more runs mean fewer innings and a bigger strain on the bullpen.

Now compare that bottom set of numbers to what Moose did over the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

57 GS: 25-17, 4.50 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 9.85 H/9, 1.35 WHIP, 1.18 HR/9, 28 QS, 6.04 IP/GS

So much for Moose having discovered the secret to late-career success. Not that he’s a bad pitcher, but he is a league average one, though with a great K/BB rate and the ability to go on a dominant run like he did in Septemer 2004 or the first two months of this season. Still, the Yankees would be wise to bear this in mind when making a decision about his 2007 option this fall. Given the other options, it’s likely worth overpaying Moose for a year to keep his reliability in the rotation, but he’ll be 39 in November 2007. I wouldn’t give him a multi-year deal at this point.

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Call Him Up, Coach

Johnny Damon’s most recent ouchie, a tender right groin, doesn’t appear to be of major concern to the Yankees, but his removal from last night’s game exposed a major flaw in the Yankees current roster construction. With Bernie Williams DHing for Jason Giambi, who was hit hard in the right arm with a pitch in Tuesday’s game, Joe Torre chose to move Bobby Abreu into center, Craig Wilson into right, and insert Andy Phillips at first base in Damon’s spot. Never mind that Melky Cabrera played center field in the minors earlier this year and that Abreu had played just 1/3 of an inning in center since 2002 when he made 18 of his 20 major league appearances there. After Bernie’s at-bat in the top of the eighth, Torre moved Abreu back to right and gave up the DH to move Bernie and his 72 Rate (!) into center and put the pitcher in Wilson’s spot in the order.

That cinched it. If Joe is that dead set on not returning Melky Cabrera to the scene of his defensive crimes of a year ago (which will have to change sooner rather than later), the Yankees need to bring Aaron Guiel back up from Columbus. Guiel played 24 games in center field for the Royals last year and made two appearances for them there earlier this season. He posted a 95 rate in those 24 games in 2005 and is dead average for his career in the middle pasture. What’s more, he’s the lefty bat this team desperately needs off the bench. Bernie Williams is 0 for 11 as a pinch-hitter this season and is still hitting just .250/.284/.380 against righties. Guiel, meanwhile, is 1 for 5 as a pinch-hitter (impossibly small samples, I know, but zero hits are hard to argue for), and is hitting .242/.356/.532 against righties.

As for Andy Phillips (brace yourselves, folks, I’m finally fessing up), he has become redundant in the wake of the Craig Wilson acquisition. As I said at the time of the trade, “a career .268/.360/.486 hitter, Wilson is exactly the hitter I had hoped Andy Phillips would be at the plate given a proper opportunity . . . is just four months Phillips’ senior and has put up those numbers over 2,133 career major league plate appearances.” Both players give the team added defensive flexibility (Andy at second and third, Wilson in the outfield corners and behind the plate), but Torre seems more willing to move Wilson around. What’s more, Andy has had just five at-bats since the acquisition of Wilson, three of them coming last night when Guiel would have been a better option. I may have been Andy Phillips’ biggest fan for the past couple of years, but he no longer fits on this roster. The Yankees need to replace him with Aaron Guiel, and they need to do it now.

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The White Sox

As Alex pointed out yesterday, tonight the Yankees begin a stretch in which they play 21 games in 20 days, 15 of which will come against teams that currently have winning records. Following an off day on August 28, the Yankees will play six more games against contenders, which adds up to 21 of 27 games over the next 27 days against teams with winning records.

At the core of that stretch is a five-game series in Boston that kicks off with a Friday double header, but the second most important of the eight series in this period, at least according to today’s standings, is the one that begins tonight in Chicago. Entering tonight’s game, the Yankees are two games better (three in the loss column) than the White Sox, who are tied with the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card lead. Since the All-Star break, the White Sox have gone 8-14 while the Yankees have gone 16-6, each pace being set when the Yankees swept the Sox in the Bronx to start the second half.

Since then, the Yankees have made three huge additions to their roster in Bobby Abreu, Craig Wilson and Cory Lidle. Although Lidle will not appear in this series, the Yankees will make yet another improvement to their roster today as they activate Robinson Cano, who will reclaim his starting second base job as Miguel Cairo takes his spot on the DL with a hamstring injury of his own.

The White Sox, meanwhile, made just two minor deals at the deadline resulting in their swapping out former Yankee backstop Chris Widger for the 40-year-old Sandy Alomar Jr. and demoting 26-year-old righty Sean Tracey for former Royals closer Mike “Mac the Ninth” MacDougal (so much for the nickname). Otherwise, their roster remains the same as it was in mid-July.

So far, so good for the Yanks. Tonight things kick off with Chien-Ming Wang taking on Freddy Garcia. Wang hasn’t allowed a run in his last 18 innings pitched (6 H, 5 BB, 4 K, 208 pitches). Garcia, meanwhile, hasn’t won a game since June, though he pitched well enough to win against the Rangers on July 22, leaving a 1-1 tie after seven innings only to watch closer Bobby Jenks cough up two runs in the ninth.

With Cano back in the line-up following an off day, we should see an order that looks something like this:

L – Damon (CF)
R – Jeter (SS)
L – Abreu (RF)
R – Rodriguez (3B)
L – Giambi (DH)
S – Posada (C)
R – Wilson (1B)
L – Cano (2B)
S – Cabrera (LF)

Man that’s purdy. Oh, and Cano went 7 for 15 with two doubles and three walks (!) in his four minor league rehab games.

Saving Face

Like Randy Johnson the night before, Mike Mussina wasn’t sharp yesterday afternoon, but still managed to keep his team in the game, limiting the Orioles to three runs in his five innings of work. Not that it mattered much. Rookie Adam Loewen, backed by some great defense by Brandon Fahey and Miguel Tejada, allowed just one hit, a first-inning single by Bobby Abreu, while striking out eight in 6 1/3 innings, and relievers Todd Williams and LaTroy Hawkins set the last eight Yanks down in order. It was the first time the Yankees had been limited to one-hit since July 16, 2004 when Mike Maroth pitched a complete-game one-hit shutout against the Yankees in Comerica Park. In that case the one hit was a Gary Sheffield double and the Yankees managed just three other base runners on an error and a pair of walks, one of which was erased by a double play. Yesterday the Yanks did a tad better, drawing five walks off Loewen such that each of the top six men in the order reached base exactly once (though, again, one was erased by a twin killing).

As surprising as that performance was given how well the team has been playing of late, winning nine of their previous ten and their first four games following the trading deadline, it was the fourth time this season the team failed to win its sixth consecutive game. Ron Villone, pitching in his fourth game in the last five days, gave up a pair of runs in the sixth to run the final score to 5-0, just the second time this season that the Yankees have been shutout.

The only worthwhile thing that came out of yesterday’s game was that Jose Veras finally made his major league debut, pitching two hitless innings in which he allowed just one base runner, a lead-off walk to Jay Gibbons in the eighth that was erased by a double play. That said, Veras had some control issues, failing to record a single K despite his impressive minor league rates and throwing just 46 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Today the Yankees look to avoid what would be a humiliating series loss to the Orioles by sending Jaret Wright to the mound to face Rodrigo Lopez. Wright is coming off throwing a season-high 103 pitches in his last outing, but also has a fairly impressive line over his last two starts: 10 1/3 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 8 K. Despite being a fly ball pitcher, Wright has allowed just four home runs all season, that’s one every 22 2/3 innings, a lower home run rate than Chien-Ming Wang’s.

As for Lopez, he’s been even better over his last two starts: 13 1/3 IP, 15 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 10 K. Of course one of those games came against the Royals, but in his last outing, against the Mariners, Lopez pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings and needed just 82 pitches to do it. Of course, the Yankees handled Lopez well back in early June (four runs on seven hits in 6 2/3 on their way to an 11-4 win), two starts after he had a very similar outing against Seattle.

Every Which Way But Lose

Last night’s game looked like it would be a cakewalk for the Yankees in the early going. Johnny Damon homered on the game’s second pitch from Bruce Chen and, after Randy Johnson pitched a 1-2-3 bottom of the first, the Yankees added two more runs in the second when Miguel Cairo doubled home Chris Wilson and Melky Cabrera before Chen had recorded the inning’s first out.

Cairo would move to third on a Damon fly out. But when Jeter grounded to third baseman Melvin Mora, Cairo got caught in a run down for the second out. Jeter moved to second on the play, then stole third, and Bobby Abreu followed with a four-pitch walk, but Alex Rodriguez, who had been one of two runners stranded in the first when Jorge Posada struck out, grounded out to end the inning, stranding a pair of his own. The Yankees would strand two more in the top of the third when second-inning hero Cairo struck out looking, and the Orioles would take advantage starting in the bottom of the inning.

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver