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As a whole, the players that made up the New York Yankees overachieved this year. Hamstrung by the worst offseason in franchise history and besieged by injuries to their pitching staff, the Yankees dug themselves out of a 11-19 hole, building momentum as the season went on, finally breaking free of .500 as July began, posting a 56-28 (.667) record from July 2 through the end of the regular season. As the season drew to a close, they played their best baseball, winning 15 of 18 at one point in September and clinching their eighth-straight AL East title by defeating the Red Sox in the penultimate game of the season.

Ever since the Yankees won four of five World Series from 1996 to 2000, it has become common for those around the organization, both in and out of uniform, to say that any season that does not end in a World Championship is a failure. I disagree. That the Yankees were unable to win the American League Division Series, while certainly a tremendous disappointment to fans, players and front office alike, should not be seen as a failure, but as the inevitable outcome of a season that extended beyond it’s rightful endpoint.

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With today’s game cancelled and rescheduled for tomorrow evening, I will be joining the Pinstriped Bible‘s Steven Goldman and the Futility Infielder‘s Jay Jaffe at Coliseum Books today at 6:00 to promote the new Baseball Prospectus book Mind Game. I made a small contribution to the book and thus will be appearing as a co-author, my first in-store appearance!

Anyone in the NYC area with some extra time on his or her hands this evening, please come out and say “hi.” Coliseum Books is at 11 West 42nd Street in Manhattan (between 5th and 6th).

There’s a 90 percent chance of heavy rain starting tonight around the scheduled first pitch of Game Three and continuing through Sunday. In downtown Manhattan it’s been overcast and unseasonably humid all day and as I look out the window now at 4:00, there are darker clouds rolling in and the wind has picked up considerably. The odds of the Yankees getting rained out to night seem very high. Still, on the off chance that the game is played tonight, here are my thoughts entering Game Three:

This is the eleventh time in eleven years that the Yankees have participated in a best-of-five ALDS, so we all know the deal by now. The road team is pleased to come home with a split, but Game Three is crucial. Much like on a 1-1 count to a batter, the difference between being up 2-1 or down 1-2 is tremendous. Thus, outside of the actual clincher itself, Game Three is easily the most important game in the series.

Good thing then that the Yankees have their ace ready to take the hill. Randy Johnson has faced the Angels twice this year. The first time he pitched six strong innings, but caught his spikes on the Angel Stadium mound, tweaking his back and forcing Joe Torre to turn to his bullpen early. After a classic case of Torre’s bullpen mismanagement, Vlad Guerrero hit a grand slam off of Tom Gordon to hand the Yankees a 6-5 loss. In Johnson’s next outing against the Angels, this time in New York, he had less success, allowing a pair of homers to the Molina brothers which drove in four runs. That time it was the Angel bullpen that blew the game, leading to an 8-7 Yankee win in eleven innings. Take away those two mistakes, however, and Johnson’s line in that game improves to 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K.

As Johnson has allowed just three home runs in his last eight starts of the season (two legitimate shots to Vernon Wells and Manny Ramirez and Tony Graffanino’s fly ball to the red line atop the Green Monster) one hopes he’ll be able to keep the Angels in the park tonight. Over those eight starts, Johnson has gone 6-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP, proving to be the ace the Yankees traded, ultimately, Dioner Navarro, Brad Halsey, Randy Choate, Nick Johnson and the Angels’ Juan Rivera for. Take out his ejection-shortened start in Toronto and his line improves to 49 2/3 IP, 27 H, 8 R, 2 HR, 11 BB, 42 K, 1.45 ERA, 0.77 WHIP in seven starts.

Paul Byrd, meanwhile, faced the Yankees just once this year, allowing three runs on nine hits and a walk over seven innings. Byrd is essentially Jon Leiber. Not only is he a righthanded sinkerballer who pitches to contact, owns righties (.211 GPA this year), struggles with lefties (.271 GPA), and absolutely refuses to walk anyone (just 28 walks on the season, 1.23 per 9IP), but since 2003 his career has followed the exact same path as Leiber’s. Both pitchers signed a free-agent deal with a perennial playoff team before the 2003 season, then missed that season due to Tommy John surgery, finally joining their new club with the 2004 season underway. Both then became a crucial part of that team’s rotation, pitching them into the playoffs where they made their postseason debuts, only to sign with a different club for 2005. What’s more, the two pitchers were born just six months and one day apart in 1970 and were later drafted out of college. Of course, Byrd is smaller than the 6’3″ 220-pound Leiber, and Leiber in no way resembles< ?a> Kelsey Grammer.

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Chien-Ming Wang and John Lackey both brought their A-game to Angel Stadium last night, but Game Two of the ALDS wasn’t decided by pitching, it was decided by defense, third-base defense especially. The Angels played errorless ball, lead by several outstanding plays by Chone Figgins at third and Darin Erstad at first. The Yankees turned a number of excellent plays of their own, but also committed three errors, two of which, including a crucial one by Alex Rodriguez, led directly to four of the five Angels runs. The result was a 5-3 Angel victory to even the series at one game apiece.

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The big question entering tonight’s match-up between Chien-Ming Wang and John Lackey concerns whom Joe Torre should start at first base, designated hitter and in center field. I’ll take the third part first. Torre should start Bernie Williams in center, there’s really not much debate to be had. Wang’s ground ball rates are so extreme that Williams could play the entire game without having more than a chance or two in the field. Most of the action Bernie’s likely to see will come on base hits, most of which either shoot through the holes to the corner outfielders, or will be grounders up the middle (assuming they can get past Wang himself) that will be hits long before Bernie gets to them, and which Bernie will be charging anyway, reducing the length of whatever throw he’ll have to make. Thus there’s no need to force the Yankee line-up to carry Bubba’s bat against a man many consider the Angels’ best pitcher entering this series.

Before I get to the 1B/DH situation, let’s explore that belief. Among the four men in the Angels’ ALDS rotation, Lackey is first in K/9 (8.57) and homers (a mere 13), and second in ERA (3.44), but last in BB/9 (3.09) and WHIP (1.33, tied with Jarrod Washburn). None of those numbers are terrible. What they really tell us is that there’s no clear ace on this staff. I still believe Bartolo Colon has the most potential to be dominant, as he was last night after the first two innings. An argument could even be made for Paul Byrd, who despite missing the entire 2003 season due to injury, has been a top-line pitcher ever since his break-out campaign with the Royals in 2002 at the age of 31.

What has everyone so excited about Lackey is likely his age and potential for improvement. Just 26, Lackey experienced a dramatic up-tick in his strikeout rate this year to combine with a two-year decrease in home runs allowed from 31 in 2003 to just 13 this year. He also recovered from a shaky April to post a 2.57 second-half ERA, going 8-1 over the season’s final three months

That said, I doubt Jason Giambi had those stats in mind when he remarked after last night’s game that Lackey was sure to win a Cy Young award if he kept improving his game the way he has. Nor do I think Giambi was basing that evaluation on his personal experiences hitting against Lackey. Giambi is 10 for 20 with a double and a pair of homers against Lackey, which is one reason I think the Yankees can afford to stick him at DH tonight. Giambi’s production may decrease when he sits between at-bats, but his success against Lackey should counteract that. Meanwhile, though Tino Martinez hasn’t actually been all that much better than Giambi in the field this year (91 Rate to Giambi’s 88, with both men at -8 Fielding Runs Against Average), the sheer volume of ground balls the Angels are likely to hit tonight will likely expose Giambi’s inferiority in the field, no matter how slight. For evidence, all we need to do is look back to Wang’s last start.

The only problem with starting Tino at first is that unlike with the centerfield situation, where Bubba can come in as a defensive replacement if Wang hands a lead to the bullpen (and make no mistake, Bubba should come in as soon as Torre takes the ball from his starter unless the Yankees are behind—Bernie has hit a solid 5 for 17 against Lackey with two doubles and a homer), Torre can’t move Giambi into the field in the late innings without sacrificing the DH. Still, I think it’s worth a shot. Yes, Ruben Sierra has gone 3 for 8 against lackey with a home run, but that makes even the other tiny samples I’ve quoted seem large. What’s more, the Ruben Sierra the Yankees have this postseason is not the same one that produced that line against Lackey, even if the Angel starter has only been in the league since 2002. Sierra missed most of the season due to a pair of injuries and has yet to find his stroke since returning. It would be a Scioscia-level mistake for Torre to put Ruben’s name in the line-up regardless of how well he matches up against a given pitcher.

Tonight will be Lackey’s first postseason start since his Game Seven win as a rookie in the 2002 World Series. He’s faced the Yankees twice this year, picking up a win both times and assembling this line: 11 2/3 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 12 K. The one thing to watch out for with Lackey facing the Yankees is that the Yanks have been able to make him work, both times driving him from the game in the sixth due to a pitch count over 100. Indeed, Lackey is the one Angel starter that the Yankees can effectively work the count against (Byrd, for example, is almost Wellsian in his refusal to issue a base on balls). The only problem there is that the Angel bullpen is so dominant that the Yankees actually decrease their chances of scoring by driving Lackey from the game after the fifth inning.

As for Wang, this is not only his first postseason start, but also the first time he’s face the Angels. Of course, as a rookie, Wang’s season has been full of firsts, and he’s taken them all in stride. The lone exception being a brief bout of nerves in the first inning of his previous start against the Red Sox, but, other than a brief issue with his control, he pitched well enough to win that game, holding the majors’ best offense to three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. My only concern is that the Angels are exactly the type of team that can cause trouble for a groundball pitcher such as Wang. They make a lot of contact, which is fine as Wang pitches to contact, but they also have a lot of speed throughout their line-up. The only team that really managed to get to Wang this season was the Devil Rays. Of course the D-Rays got to all of the Yankee pitchers, but against Wang it was their speed, not their power that was the problem. The Devil Rays were the only team other than the Cardinals (against whom Wang was abandoned by his defense) to collect more than a hit per inning against Wang this season.

Game time is 10 p.m. eastern. If the Yanks can pull out another win they’ll return home with a chance to sweep with Randy Johnson on the mound.

Update:

Here are the line-ups. Torre got it right again. Scioscia drops Erstad behind Molina and Rivera, but there appears to be some confusion as to where Anderson and Rivera are starting [Update: Anderson’s in left again, Erstad is actually hitting ahead of Rivera, cleary YES’s Angels sources are not as reliable as their Yankee sources]:

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The reoccurring elbow injuries which limited Andy Pettitte to fifteen starts last year and ended his season before the playoffs made his departure from the Bronx a lot easier to take than I expected. And in a way, that complicates makes my reaction to the monster season he just had (2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17-9, 222 1/3 IP, 188 H, 171 K, 41 BB, all playing his home games in Minute Made Park, mind you).

Pettitte is on the mound in Atlanta, facing off against Tim Hudson in Game One of the Astros-Braves NLDS (Andy already has a 3-1 lead in the third).

At 8:00, another member of the Yankees 2003 rotation, David Wells faces off against Mark Buehrle in an attempt to even the All-Sox series heading home to Boston.

Anyone watching these?

The first pitch Bartolo Colon threw in last night’s game buzzed past Derek Jeter at 95 miles per hour for a strike. The second pitch he threw resulted in a Jeter groundout to third. Colon then struck out Alex Rodriguez on three pitches and got ahead of Jason Giambi with strike one. The Angel ace was dealing. After his seventh pitch was called for a ball, the first he threw on the night, Colon unleashed another 95 mile per hour heater that tailed down and in on Giambi.

Giambi, who at the beginning of the season appeared incapable of getting around even on low-90s heat, turned on the pitch and lined it into right for a single. Colon then got ahead of Gary Sheffield 0-2 and attempted to put him away with a similar pitch on the outside corner, but Sheffield stuck out his rear and poked the pitch into right for another single, pushing Giambi to second. Hideki Matsui followed with a seven pitch at-bat that ended with yet another single to right, loading the bases for Robinson Cano’s first postseason appearance.

After a quick visit to the mound by Angels pitching coach Bud Black, Colon started Cano off with just his second ball of the night. The rookie second baseman then took a strike to even the count and fouled off another to fall behind 1-2. After Colon again evened the count with another ball, Cano hit a laser down the third base line foul, then creamed the sixth pitch he saw over Garret Anderson’s head in left, clearing the bases and giving the Yankees a 3-0 lead.

As it turns out, that was all the Yankees would need. Despite Joe Torre’s confidence, even Mike Mussina wasn’t sure what he’d bring to the mound pitching on six days rest and coming off a dreadful outing in Baltimore (2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R) last week. As it turns out, Mussina had everything working. His fastball hit 91 miles per hour, his control was excellent, and his knuckle curve was sharp.

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The line-ups for tonight’s game are posted over on the YES Network site.

So far, so good. Torre is going with Crosby in center, and Bernie at DH, while Scioscia is running Erstad and Finley out there, with Anderson resigned to DH, Juan Rivera in left [Update: actually, reverse that], and Adam Kennedy burried in the nine-hole. Dig:

Yankees

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Jason Giambi (1B)
R – Gary Sheffield (RF)
L – Hideki Matsui (LF)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
S – Bernie Williams (DH)
L – Bubba Crosby (CF)

R – Mussina (P)

Angels

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (RF)
L – Darin Erstad (1B)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
L – Steve Finley (CF)
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

R – Bartolo Colon (P)

The only thing Scioscia did right is put Molina behind Guerrero [Update: actually, he screwed that up too]. Kotchman and DaVanon are left to rot on the bench. Check the YES link above to see these line-ups along with their triple-crown stats and OBPs, the latter of which are particularly enlightening.

Still no word on the Yankees final playoff roster, though honestly, the last man on the bench and in the bullpen shouldn’t see any action in this series, let alone play an important role. If he does, it’s likely going to mean bad news for the Yanks.

Update:

The roster is set:

1B – Jason Giambi
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jorge Posada
RF – Gary Sheffield
CF – Bubba Crosby
LF – Hideki Matsui
DH – Bernie Williams

Bench:

L – Tino Martinez (1B)
S – Ruben Sierra (OF)
S – Mark Bellhorn (IF)
L – Tony Womack (OF)
R – John Flaherty (C)

Rotation:

R – Mike Mussina
R – Chien-Ming Wang
L – Randy Johnson
R – Shawn Chacon

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Tom Gordon
R – Tanyon Sturtze
R – Aaron Small
R – Scott Proctor
L – Alan Embree
L – Al Leiter

As Cartman told Starvin’ Marvin in South Park’s first Thanksgiving episode

“You see Starvin’ Marvin, these are what we call appetizers. This is what you eat before you eat, to make you more hungry.”

In the game already underway, Jake Peavy is getting rocked by the Cardinals offense while Chris Carpenter is rolling.

At 4:00 Matt Clement, the pitcher I think the Yankees should have signed this offseason, and Jose Contreras, the one I’m glad they traded last year, match up in Chicago.

If anyone’s interested in chatting about this afternoon’s action, this is the place to do it.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2005 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2005 Pythagorean Record: 94.5-67.5 (.583)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Bill Stoneman

Ballpark (2004 park factors): Angel Stadium (99/99)

Postseason Roster:

1B – Darin Erstad
2B – Adam Kennedy
SS – Orlando Cabrera
3B – Chone Figgins
C – Bengie Molina
RF – Vladimir Guerrero
CF – Steve Finley
LF – Garret Anderson
DH – Juan Rivera

Bench:

L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
S – Jeff DaVanon (OF)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Josh Paul (C)

Rotation:

R – Bartolo Colon
R – John Lackey
R – Paul Byrd
L – Jarrod Washburn

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Scot Shields
R – Brendan Donnelly
R – Kelvim Escobar
R – Kevin Gregg
R – Ervin Santana

DL:

L – Dallas McPherson (3B) (60-day)
R – Matt Hensley (60-day)
R – Tim Salmon (OF) (60-day)

Typical Line-up

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
L – Darin Erstad (1B)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
L – Steve Finley (CF)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

The Yankees and the Angels enter the ALDS with identical regular season records of 95-67. They also had the two best records in baseball over the final weeks of the season, the Angels finishing 14-2, the Yankees 16-5. But despite displaying an equal ability to win, they’ve gone about it in drastically different ways.

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It was an uncommonly beautiful day in Boston yesterday. Not a single cloud could be found in the deep blue sky and the mid-day sun cast harsh shadows across the field at Fenway Park. In many ways, it was reminiscent of the afternoon 27 years ago today when Ron Guidry and Mike Torrez faced off to decide the American League’s Eastern Division, and with the temperature a crisp 64 degrees, there was more than a hint of playoff baseball in the air.

After 160 games, it had come to this. The Yankees and Red Sox were tied atop the AL East. The winner of this game would clinch a tie for first place. More significantly, a win by the Yankees and a loss by the Indians in Cleveland would hand the division to New York outright. On the mound for the two teams were a pair of veteran aces. Forty two-year-old future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, 4-0 in five starts against the Red Sox this year was set to face 39-year-old Tim Wakefield, the pitcher who almost single-handedly defeated the Yankees in the 2003 ALCS only to, in a cruel twist of fate, surrender the series-ending home run in relief in Game Seven. Three weeks ago the two had matched up in a grueling 1-0 pitchers duel won by Johnson in the final match-up of the year between the two teams at Yankee Stadium.

On this day, things would be a little different. Wakefield’s knuckler, which in that September 11 match-up was as good as it’s ever been, resulting in a career-high twelve strikeouts for Wakefield, simply didn’t have as much movement, and the Yankees, several of whom took batting practice against a former Yankee hurler who had learned the pitch from Wakefield himself, took advantage.

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The winner of today’s game will clinch a tie for the American League East. If the White Sox win in Cleveland, the loser of today’s game will clinch a tie for the American League Wild Card.

The Yankees and Red Sox are each sending their best pitchers to the mound. At Yankee Stadium on September 11, Randy Johnson pitched seven shutout innings to defeat Tim Wakefield 1-0 on a first-inning home run by Jason Giambi off a Wakefield curve ball, with Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera nailing down the win.

Giambi starts at DH today after making a crucial throwing error in last night’s loss. Tino Martinez gets the start at first, batting behind Robinson Cano, who hits sixth after having one of just three Yankee hits off Wakefield three weeks ago. Bernie’s in center. Flaherty’s behind the plate.

For the Red Sox, Kevin Millar’s in at first. Bill Mueller moves up to the six spot ahead of catcher Doug Mirabelli. With Gabe Kapler out for the year with an Achilles injury, Trot Nixon stays in the line-up against Johnson and drops to eighth.

Since 1904, when the embryonic Yankees lost the AL Pennant to the then Boston Pilgrims in the penultimate game of the year due to a series of infield errors and a sore-armed ace, the fortunes of the two teams had changed dramatically. The Boston club, who started calling themselves the Red Sox just a few years after their season-ending conflict with the New Yorkers, went on to become the dominant team of the next decade, winning four World Championships in the teens before owner Harry Frazee began selling off his stars, most notably a young pitcher-turned-outfielder named Babe Ruth who would go on to lead the Yankees to their first pennant in 1921, their first World Championship in 1923, and five other World Series appearances in his fifteen years in New York, four of which saw the Yankees emerge victorious.

Meanwhile, the Boston Club fell into despair, failing to produce a winning season during Ruth’s tenure as a Yankee, nine times finishing dead last in the American League. Under new owner Tom Yawkey, the Red Sox finally pulled themselves out of their almost two-decade-long funk at the end of the 1930s, a revival that was solidified by the arrival of a scrawny left-handed hitter named Ted Williams.

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Needing just one win to clinch a tie for the American League East, the Yankees went to Fenway Park last night and lost a game they could have won. The decisive play came with the bases full of Red Sox in the sixth inning, one man out, the score 3-1 in favor of Boston, and an 0-2 count on Jason Varitek. Varitek hit a weak grounder to Jason Giambi at first, who charged the ball and fired to Jorge Posada to force David Ortiz at home. But Giambi failed to set himself before making the throw, despite the fact that the lumbering Ortiz was the runner at third. His throw tailed down and to the foul side of home, bouncing short of Posada, who was unable to handle the hop. Ortiz scored safely and the Yankees failed to get an out. John Olerud, who started at first base, then flew out to Bernie Williams in center–the only one of the twenty outs Yankee starter Chein-Ming Wang recorded that came via a fly ball to the outfield. Olerud’s fly scored Manny Ramirez from third, pushing the score to 5-1. Had Giambi’s throw been on target, Olerud’s fly would have been the final out of the inning and the score would have held at 3-1, allowing Derek Jeter’s two-run homer in the seventh inning to tie the game. Instead, the Yankees lost 5-3.

That’s not to say that Giambi’s error was the only missed opportunity of the night.

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updated 7:10 pm EST

Here we go, folks. This is not a test, this is the real deal. Three games at Fenway Park to determine the outcome of the American Leage East race for 2005. The Yankees lead the Red Sox by one game and can win the division with just two more wins. One Yankee victory would clinch a tie, meaning that, at worst, the Yankees would get to play one final all-or-nothing home game to decide the division. In essence, the Yankees simply need to split the next four (potential) games against the Red Sox to win the division. The Red Sox, meanwhile, need to win two of three just to have a chance to play for the division crown at Yankee Stadium on Monday, and would have to sweep to clinch in their home park.

Meanwhile, the series between the AL Central Champion White Sox and the Cleveland Indians, who are currently tied with the Red Sox one game behind the Yankees, will determine if the losers of the New York-Boston series win the Wild Card or start emptying their lockers. Hank Waddles over at Only Baseball Matters has posted a handy chart outlining the 23 possible outcomes, which, at their most stomach-churning include a pair of one-game playoffs, one on Monday for the AL East crown and one on Tuesday between the Indians and Monday’s loser for the Wild Card. Eighteen of those 23 possible outcomes have the Yankees in the playoffs (as opposed to 14 each for the Red Sox and Indians), which would give the Yankees the edge if everything else were equal. Of course, as Waddle concludes, the problem is, “we’re not flipping coins.”

Of course, with the Yankees and Red Sox, it often seems as though we are. The two teams are 34-34 in head-to-head match-ups over the past three seasons, and each has won a seven game ALCS at the expense of the other to push their overall records to 38-38. Thus far this season, the Yankees have a 9-7 advantage over the Sox in head-to-head match-ups, including a 5-2 record against the Sox since the All-Star break and a 4-3 record at Fenway Park (this despite the Red Sox having won a full two thirds of their home games on the season while the Yankees have played mere .526 ball on the road). The Yankees are also the hotter team, having gone 14-3 since Randy Johnson beat Tim Wakefield 1-0 in the final game of the two teams’ last match-up. The Sox, meanwhile, are 10-8 over that span (both teams are 5-2 over their last seven, but the Yanks are 2-1 while the Sox are 1-2 in their last three).

Ultimately, what matters is the quality of the teams on the field this weekend, not over the past six months. So let’s take a closer look at the two rosters and tonight’s starting pitchers.

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As the Yankees head to Fenway for the final three games of the season with a mere one-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East, it’s worth noting that this is just the third time in the 103-year history of the team that they’ve concluded a regular season by playing their Boston rivals head-to-head for a chance at the postseason. As we are about to watch the fourth such finish unfold before us over the next three days, I thought it would be fun to revisit those three seasons, one per day, as we anticipate what this year’s will bring. The hope is that the juxtaposition between these recaps and the games at Fenway will do far more than a lot of hype and mythmaking could to underscore the significance of this weekend’s series. I’ll start today with 1904.

But before I do, in addition to those head-to-head match-ups there have been just four other seasons in that 103-year period in which the two teams have finished within four games of one another (the maximum distance possible this year). It’s interesting to note, however, that three of those seven seasons have occurred since the American League was split into three divisions in 1994. Including this year, that accounts for a full third of the three-division era. In light of that, it is amazing that the schedule makers haven’t pitted the two teams against each other in the final series of a season since 1996, when the Yankees finished seven games ahead of the defending AL East Champion Red Sox.

Equally amazing, this is the first time since it was adopted in 2001 that the unbalanced schedule has resulted in season-ending Yankee-Red Sox matchup. In 1999 and 2000, when the Yankees finished 4 and 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox respectively, the final regular season games between the two clubs were on September 11 and 12, almost three weeks before the season’s conclusion. All of which is even more stunning when you remember that the Yankees and Red Sox have finished first and second in the AL East respectively for the last seven straight seasons. Major League Baseball switched schedule makers prior to this season for the first time since 1981. Now, entering the season’s final weekend, four of the six teams that have niether clinched nor been eliminated from the postseason are playing each other, including the first scheduled season-ending series between the Yankees and Red Sox to mean something since 1949. Kudos to baseball and the Sports Scheduling Group for correcting an obvious flaw in the system.

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While Curt Schilling finds himself embroiled in some bad clubhouse vibes (paging Mr. Ramirez), Alan Schwarz has a front-page article on Mike Piazza and Bernie Williams in today’s New York Times. Piazza, in particular, seems to have accepted where he is at in his career:

“I compare it to a new car,” Piazza said recently at Shea Stadium. “When you get a new car, the power windows go up quick – it’s quicker and you get more response. And then when it gets older, little things start to break. Things fall off. Our bodies are machines. You have to be pragmatic. You have to be realistic.”

…”I’m not O.K. with not producing,” Piazza said, “but you do have to go: ‘Wait a minute, let’s be real here. You are who you are. Embrace it. Maybe what I lack in pure motor response of what I had 10 years ago, I feel like I bring a lot of other different things.’ It is what it is. It’s not a bad thing. Everyone knows it, everyone times you, scouts know. It’s not a big mystery.”

…”I’m very much at peace with who I am and where I am,” he said. “I’ve caught a lot of games. Physically, it has taken a toll on me, but I still feel I can be somewhat productive. I’m actually looking forward to being a role player.”

I like the idea of Bernie Williams replacing Ruben Sierra next year as a pinch-hitter, part-time DH, spot outfielder. Perhaps Piazza would be equally as effective in that role too.

Eleven days have passed since I last played the assumption game to try to predict how the Yankees, Red Sox and Indians would be stacked up heading into the season’s final weekend. Thus far, the Red Sox and Indians have performed exactly as expected (though the Red Sox have done so by sweeping the Orioles and losing two of three to the Devil Rays where I expected them to take two of three from both), while the Yankees, in sweeping Baltimore last week at home, have exceeded my assumptions by one game. As a result, rather than trailing the Sox and Tribe by a game, the Yankees have pulled even with them (pending the result of Game One of today’s doubleheader in Boston, that is).

With just three games left before the division showdowns in Boston and Cleveland, let’s look at this another way. Let’s assume the Red Sox win this afternoon and that the Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, and Tribe all win two of their remaining three games prior to this weekend. That will keep the standings where they are and send the Bosox, Indians and Yankees into the final three games with identical records, two games behind the White Sox. If that were to happen, here are the possible outcomes this weekend:

Assuming the Yanks and Sox split their series two games to one, the winner winning the AL East:

If Cleveland sweeps Chicago, the Indians win the Central, the White Sox win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Cleveland wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.

If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, the NY/Bos loser wins the Wild Card and the Indians winner go home.

If the NY/Bos series results in a sweep here’s what changes:

If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.

It seems unlikely that the standings will remain unchanged through Friday morning, but it’s fun to speculate. This can also serve as a game thread for anyone watching or otherwise keeping track of the day game in Boston.

Much like they did against in Tampa two weeks ago, the Yankees arrived in Baltimore last night and delivered a statement: they’re not fooling around this time. On a night when the Indians (due to the schedule) and the Red Sox (due to the rain) were idle, the Yankees beat up on the Orioles in Camden Yards, winning 11-3 in a game that wasn’t even that close.

Unlike the Devil Rays’ game, this one wasn’t a blowout from the start. In fact, the game almost didn’t start at all. Delayed an hour and a half by rain, the game finally got underway in a mild drizzle just after 8:30. The Yankees leapt into action, with Derek Jeter singling on Rodrigo Lopez’s second pitch, followed by an Alex Rodriguez walk, and, as the rain picked up, a Jason Giambi fly out to center that moved Jeter to third. Gary Sheffield then fouled off a pitch only to have his at-bat interrupted by a twenty-minute rain delay.

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The Yankees and Orioles were originally scheduled to play the game being made up tonight at Camden Yards on Wednesday June 29. Instead, the game was washed away by rain, which seemed very similar to what was happening to the Yankees’ season at the time. The night before, Joe Torre had brought Mike Stanton in to pitch the bottom of the tenth inning against the top of the Orioles’ order despite not yet having used Mariano Rivera in the game (Rivera had thrown just two innings over the previous week). Brian Roberts crushed Stanton’s first pitch into the left field stands to give the Orioles a 4-3 win and drop the Yankees’ June record to 12-14.

During the two days of inactivity that followed (the first due to the rain-out, the second a travel day as the team headed to Detroit to start a weekend series against the Tigers), the Yankees designated relievers Mike Stanton and Paul Quantrill for assignment. When they returned to action on Friday night in Detroit, the Tigers and their 22-year-old ace Jeremy Bonderman handed the Yankees and their 41-year-old putative ace Randy Johnson a 10-2 loss that dropped the New Yorkers’ overall record to 39-39. After stumbling out of the gate with an 11-19 (.367) record, the Yankees appeared to have righted their ship in May with a ten-game winning streak, but by the time Tino Martinez grounded out to Bonderman to complete that July 1 loss in Detroit, most of the optimism that streak had brought had dissipated.

Since then, however, the Yankees have gone 52-25 (.675), and now, with exactly one week left in the regular season, find themselves tied with the Boston Red Sox for first in the American League East with the opportunity to tie the idle Indians for the Wild Card lead with a win tonight. It’s been an absolutely stunning turn around, and now, with just seven games left in the season, it’s time for the payoff.

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