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After ten major league appearances, Chien-Ming Wang heads into tonight’s game with a 4.31 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP having held opposing batters to a .248/.305/.343 (.223 GPA) line with a staggering 2.57 ground ball to fly ball ratio (which would rank sixth in the major leagues among qualified pitchers if Wang himself actually qualified). All of which is more than most could have asked for from a rookie pitcher thrust into an essentially permanent rotation spot due to an injury on the major league club.

But then there are these numbers: 3.30 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB. Those figures, particularly the K/9, which would be seventh worst in the majors if Wang qualified, have prompted some to call for Wang to be dealt before he is revealed as the phony they believe his low K-rate indicates he is. Taking that a step further, there are those who have accused Wang of feasting on poor-hitting teams, while struggling against more powerful offenses.

Well, thus far Chien-Ming has faced eight teams, and made starts against seven of them, here they are along with their current major league rank in runs scored and OPS:

Against those eight teams, Wang has turned in six quality starts in nine opportunities. The three exceptions being his two starts against the Devil Rays and his one against the Cardinals. His one appearance against the Red Sox came in relief.

Those stats would seem to support the image of Wang as a pitcher whose success has been largely based on facing week offenses, but I’m not convinced. To begin with, his minor league strikeout and walk rates indicate that his current low K-rate is likely to improve. In four minor league seasons between A ball and Columbus, Wang’s worst K/9 was 6.20 and his career minor league mark is 7.16 K/9. Similarly, his worst BB/9 was 2.36. Both of those marks came in his first season at double-A in 2003 and both improved when he returned to Trenton in 2004, and then improved again when he was promoted to Columbus later that year. Similarly, Wang’s second most recent start, against the Cubs who rank well above Tampa and just behind St. Louis in OPS, was his best of his young major league career and saw him strike out five men in eight innings against just one walk.

Still, until Wang acquits himself against strong-hitting teams, the doubters will have the floor. Tonight, Chien-Ming makes his first career start against the Orioles, who rank fifth in the majors in runs scored and second in the bigs in OPS. Again, I’m optimistic.

I’ve been fairly convinced that the Yankees are and will remain a .500 team this year ever since they were swept by the then AL-worst Royals four weeks ago. Still, streaks such as their 6-0 opening to the just-completed home stand and apparent breakthroughs by men such as Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, and especially Hideki Matsui combined with the continued impressive performances of Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang have kept me from saying so at print. But after the Yanks dropped 3 of 4 to the Devil Rays for the second time this year (falling to 3-7 against them on the season) and needed a last-gasp ninth-inning rally to avoid a sweep at the hands of the scuffling Mets, I’m finally ready to put it in black and white. That said, I’m optimistic about the team’s prospects heading in the three-game series with the Orioles that will kick off in Baltimore tonight.

After the Yanks took those first six home games from the Pirates and Cubs, the hope was that they could keep their momentum through the inferior D-Rays and Mets and get within three games of the division leading O’s in time to have a chance to take the division lead with a sweep of this series. Oh how things have changed. Not only did the Yanks finish their home stand with a 2-5 record against the Rays and Mets, but the Orioles have also fallen on hard times, droping six of their last seven to the Blue Jays and Braves (admittedly stronger competition), and relinquishing their division lead to the surging Red Sox (who, having won 12 of their last 13, appear to be on their way to running away with the east).

So not only did the Yankees fail to get within three games of the O’s (they’re four games behind them going into tonight), the Orioles are no longer the team to beat in the east as they trail the Sox by 2.5 and enter this series on a five-game losing streak. With that in mind, the Yankees are still in a position to tighten things between themselves and the second-place O’s, who also happen to be the Wild Card leaders of the moment, with the Twins also having hit hard times (5-11 in their last 16 games–in fact, the O’s, Twins and Yankees have nearly identical records in June: 11-13 for the O’s and Yanks, 11-12 for the Twins).

Taking a quick look at the pitching match-ups, the Yankees are in good shape: Pavano pitching on the road (2.49 ERA) against the volatile Daniel Cabrera (5.54 ERA, 5.91 in June), The Anchor Chien-Ming Wang taking on that giant ball of suck Sir Sidney Ponson (5.42 ERA), and Mike Mussina, a near-Hall of Fame veteran who has pitched several hundred games in Camden Yards, facing reeling rookie Hayden Penn (6.07 ERA, one quality start in six tries). I’m not making any predictions, but I have a good feeling about this.

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The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are fifth in the American League (ninth in the majors) in runs scored. They’re also fifth in the majors in EQA. Thus far this season they are 6-3 against the Yankees, who are second in the majors in both categories. The Devil Rays have now won seven games on the road this year, three of them in the Bronx. Tampa has scored 7.2 runs per game against the Yankees, scoring five or more in eight of their nine meetings. The Yankees have scored 7.4 runs against Tampa, scoring four or fewer runs in five of their nine meetings, but scoring a total of 39 runs in just two games.

Those are a lot of ugly numbers. Chien-Ming Wang, whom I’m officially dubbing the anchor of this Yankee rotation (Moose and Unit are the aces, Meat and Mr. Nasty are the question marks, Tiger is the anchor), looks to keep the top half of the scoreboard neat and tidy tonight as the Yanks try to save some face by salvaging a split of this four game series with the worst team in their league.

Wang’s mound opponent is 6’9″ lefty Mark Hendrickson (whose official name, by the way, is “6’9″ Lefty Mark Hendrickson”). Hendrickson has some ugly numbers of his own (5.83 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 4.18 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 1.27 HR/9, opponents hitting .322/.371/.516, 7.55 road ERA, 9.43 June ERA). The only thing Hendrickson does well is stifle lefties (.219/.269/.329). That should mean more bench time for Tony Mowack. Whether or not we’ll see Russ Johnson (2 for 9 vs. lefties this year after an 0 for 2 against Scott Kazmir yesterday) get his second consecutive start at first, well, I doubt it, but we’ll find out soon enough.

[note: I started to write the below in the comments to Alex’s last post, responding to Simone’s inquiries about Carl Pavano’s ground-ball ratios and home run rates, but after I finished, I thought it deserved it’s own post]

Shall we try the old blind taste test gimmick?

Pitcher A: 6.89 ERA, 1.91 HR/9, 6.32 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.00 K/BB
Opposition vs. Pitcher A: .360/.404/.567 (.324 GPA)

Pitcher B: 2.49 ERA, 1.15 HR/9, 4.40 K/9, 1.15 BB/9, 3.83 K/BB
Opposition vs. Pitcher B: .260/.293/.443 (.243 GPA)

These pitchers are currently sharing a spot in the Yankee rotation. It sure would be nice if the team would let Pitcher B take over Pitcher A’s starts? The problem is that they can’t. You see, both of these pitchers are Carl Pavano. Pitcher B is Carl Pavano on the road. Pitcher A is Carl Pavano at home.

This is why Meat has been rotten. It’s not his ground ball rates (Pavano has a career ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 1.42, this year he’s inducing 1.58 grounders for every fly). It’s not even his home run rates. Observe:

Playing his home games in le Stad Olympique as an Expo from 1998 to 2002, Pavano gave up 1.09 HR/9, while his home park had an average park factor of 101.4. Playing his home games at Pro Player Stadium as a Marlin from 2002 to 2004, Pavano gave up 0.74 HR/9, while his home part had an average park factor of 95.3. Taking into account that Pavano spent his natural peak in a Florida uniform (ages 26-28) and that it was as a Marlin that he finally beat the injury bug and came into his own as a pitcher, those numbers make perfect sense. Pavano’s 1.15 HR/9 on the road as a Yankee also fits logically with Meat’s move from the National to American League and the 1.09 HR/9 he posted in the only slightly hitter-friendly Montreal as a National Leaguer.

What doesn’t fit is that insane 1.91 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium, a park that has had a factor of 97 in each of the last two seasons (and a 98 in 2002). Which brings us right back to where we started.

Pavano’s struggles in the Bronx are hard to explain in baseball terms, but the fact that he’s a Connecticut kid who grew up in Yankee country could have something to do with it. If Pavano is simply dealing with some psychological issues (nerves, pressing, anxiety, what ever you want to call it) when it comes to pitching in Yankee Stadium (and, most likely, in front of more friends and family than he was accustomed to in Montreal and Miami), then one could hope that, as the initial excitement wears off and these starts become more routine, his home performance will fall closer in line with his road performance. If so, that would be a huge boost for the Yankees.

The question is, how long will that take. Pavano’s first three Yankee Stadium starts this year (not counting the start against the Orioles in which he was beaned by a Melvin Mora comebacker) were his only quality starts at home on the season, the last of those coming against the A’s on May 6. Things took a turn for the worse in that May 11 home game against the Mariners and Jamie Moyer in which Pavano was victimized by Alex Rodriguez’s dreadful play at third base and a quartet of Seattle homers. So things would actually seem to be heading in the wrong direction were it not for his encouraging non-homer peripherals from yesterday’s two-homer loss to the Devil Rays: 6 2/3 IP, 4 1B, 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 BB, 7 K.

Incidentally, if you take that one start against Seattle away, Pavano’s home HR/9 drops to 1.26. Another crack in the wall between Pavano’s home and road starts is that, despite that ridiculous home road split for HR/9, Pavano has allowed 20 extra base hits in 203 opposition at-bats at home and 18 extra base hits in 181 opposition at-bats on the road for an isolated power of .207 at home and .182 on the road, which, though continuing to demonstrate his inferior performance at home, isn’t as extreme a split as his other numbers would suggest. Could it be that an effective pinstriped Carl Pavano is indeed on the horizon? If so, the Yankees may have more fight in ’em than we think. If not, well, you can probably write them off now.

It all started innocently enough. Randy Johnson struck out Carl Crawford on three pitches, the first two looking, the third swinging. He then sat Julio Lugo down on five more and stranded Jorge Cantu at first base by getting Aubrey Huff to ground out to second. Clean, simple, and an apparent indication that Johnson was picking up where he left off last Thursday with his complete game against the Pirates.

Then Johnson started the second inning with a ball to Eduardo Perez. His next two pitches were sliders that Perez offered, but, at least according to home plate umpire Eric Cooper and first base ump Fieldin Culbreth, did not actually swing at. Down 3-0 in the count when he just as easily could have been up 1-2, Johnson wound up walking Perez on four pitches. Johnson then got Jonny Gomes to pop out to short on an 0-2 count and got called strike one on Damon Hollins and all appeared to be well.

Then Hollins and back-up catcher Kevin Cash homered on Johnson’s next two pitches to put the Devil Rays up 3-0. Alex Gonzalez then singled on an 2-0 pitch and stole second on a first-pitch ball to Carl Crawford. Crawford then missed two pitches before yanking a third to deep right for an RBI triple. Johnson then got ahead of Julio Lugo 0-2 only to have Lugo single home Crawford. Just like that, the Devil Rays had scored five runs on Randy Johnson in the second inning.

The Yankees got one back in the bottom of the second on a Matsui walk, a Giambi ground rule double, and a Bernie Williams sac fly, but the D-Rays doubled that in the top of the third. Before Johnson could get the first out, Eduardo Perez doubled and Jonny Gomes homered to make it 7-1 Devil Rays.

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The Yankees’ Tag-Team Champions, Randy “Big Unit” Johnson and John “Flash” Flaherty, look to go 3-0 tonight against Hideo “The Tornado” Nomo and Toby “Or Not Toby” Hall. With Hall and Casey “Playing” Fossum having won the night before only because the umpires failed to disqualify Fossum for hitting Kevin “Mr. Nasty” Brown in the back with a folding chair, forcing the Yankees to replace him with Sean “Just Say” Henn, this is sure to be a grudge match on par with the British Bulldogs taking their revenge on the Dream Team after Greg “The Hammer” Valentine stole their mascot Mathilda.

Going into last week’s series against Pittsburgh, the Yankees’ record was 1/2 game worse than the Pirates’. Now, three days after sweeping the Pirates’, the Yankees are 4 1/2 games ahead of Pittsburgh.

Going into this weekend’s series against the Cubs, the Yankees record was 1 1/2 games worse than the Chicago’s. Now, after sweeping them in three games, the Yankees are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs.

Tonight, going into a four game series against Tampa Bay, the Yankees have won six in a row, are 8-2 in their last ten games, are just five games out of first place and a whopping 13 1/2 games ahead of the Devil Rays, with whom they were once tied for last in the AL East. But that’s nothing compared to the discrepancy between the Yankees’ home record and the Devil Rays’ road record:

Yanks Home: 22-13 (.629)
Rays Road: 5-28 (.152)

Wow! That’s a 16-game difference over a sample of 35 games (33 for the Rays). One has to assume the Rays will find a way to win one of the next four games, but given those home and away records, it would be a major upset for them to do any better than that. Of course, that’s how we all felt when the Yankees headed to Kansas City three weeks ago. Let’s not forget that the Devil Rays have a 4-2 record against the Yankees on the season. This is how that happened:

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Things are really looking up in Yankee land. The team is back over .500 for the first time in almost two weeks. They now have third place in the AL East to themselves, having picked up a half-game on the Blue Jays who were idle last night. They’re 5-2 in their last seven games. And, most importantly, this latest winning streak can be directly tied to the improvements made by several of the team’s key players.

In the rotation, Randy Johnson has been downright nasty in his last two starts (18 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 18 K), Mike Mussina’s last outing was his second shutout of the year, even tonight’s starter, Carl “Meat” Pavano, has been solid in his last two outings (12 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K). And, while Tanyon Sturtze has suddenly given up homers in each of the last three innings he’s pitched, adding almost a run and a half to his season ERA (though those are the only three homers he’s allowed all year), Mariano Rivera is as lights out as he’s ever been. Don’t look now, but Mo’s rate stats look like this: 1.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.58 K/9. The K-rate is Mo’s highest since 1996, while the ERA is more than a half run better than his career high.

On offense, the big news is that Jason Giambi is starting to catch up with those 90-plus mile per hour fastballs. As a result, a full thirty percent of his extra base hits on the year have come in the last three games. Similarly, Hideki Matsui, who has a hit in all but three games this month, has hit a full third of his homers in the last three games. Matsui’s sudden power stroke is a direct result of the mild ankle sprain he suffered while playing right field in St. Louis. Unable to put too much weight on his right (front) ankle, Matsui is keeping his weight back and driving the ball. As a result, half of his extra base hits in June have come while DHing due to the sprain. (Hitting Coach Don Mattingly has reportedly threatened to whack Matsui in the ankle with a bat if he reverts to lunging at the ball once his ankle heals).

With everything going their way, the Yankees now get their biggest challenge since the Red Sox sent them packing on the Road Trip From Hell (no disrespect to the Twins there, but the Yankees weren’t in challenge-facing mood when they hit Minnesota–by the way speaking of that road trip, the Kansas City Royals are now 11-4 under new manager Buddy Bell and just completed a three-game sweep of the Dodgers last night).

Where was I? Oh yes:

Chicago Cubs

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Jason Giambi’s game-winning home run in the bottom of the tenth last night not only clinched the Yankees’ first series win since they swept Detroit at home back on May 24-26, but gives us all the opportunity to enjoy tonight’s stellar pitching match-up without having to worry about the Yanks dropping their sixth straight series.

Instead, we’ll get Randy Johnson vs. Oliver Perez in all their glory with the Yankees now 4-2 over their last six games (that’s .667 baseball, people!) and Johnson coming off his strongest start of the year. The one negative result of that last start, his first with John Flaherty behind the plate, is that Johnson now wants to use Flaherty as his personal catcher, something Joe Torre doesn’t mind, but Flaherty himself admirably finds problematic:

“I guess it works for some guys, like when Greg Maddux had Charlie O’Brien and then Eddie Perez. I’m not really a believer in it. First and foremost, we’ve got an All-Star guy here [Posada] who’s always a threat to hit the ball out of the yard and does a great job. Besides, when [Johnson’s] on, it doesn’t really matter who’s behind the plate.”

Indeed, Posada was 2 for 4 last night with a solo homer to start the scoring and a key RBI double in the ninth to force extra innings. But then, like Flaherty says (though with a different meaning), when Johnson’s on, it doesn’t really matter who’s behind the plate. And if his inconsistency thus far this season has you worried, perhaps you’ll find some consolation in this observation from Steve Lombardi at Was Watching:

In 2004, Randy Johnson had a Game Score of 76+ ten times. And, on five other times, he was above 72. So, last season, Unit was over 72 in 43% of his starts.

Now, here’s an interesting thing: In 2004, eleven of those fifteen 72+ games came after June 28th. Perhaps it is true that Unit needs the warm weather to start heating up?

For those of you scoring at home, today is June 16.

On the other side of the ball, Oliver Perez is also coming off his best start of the year in which he dominated the Devil Rays for seven innings with this line: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 10 K, 94 pitches, 67 percent strikes. Perez had been scuffling, turning in just one quality start in his first nine tries, but his last two starts have both been excellent (the other against Atlanta: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K). And in case the fact that two excellent power lefties facing each other wasn’t exciting enough, check out these selections from the ESPN scouting report for Perez:

Perez can often be dominating with his power arsenal. He can throw his fastball as high as 97 MPH, though it is usually sits in the 90-94 MPH range. Perez has two kinds of sliders, one with a sharp late break against righthanded hitters and another that sweeps and eats up lefties. . . . Perez is fragile looking with thin legs but has good stamina and keeps his stuff deep into games.

Remind you of anyone?

One final note: the Yankees have sent down Andy Phillips in favor of Bubba Crosby, whom I was certain would never again be seen in Yankee pinstripes. Though some may hope that this is a sign of an imminent Tony Womack trade, it’s more likely an indication of the condition of Hideki Matsui’s ankle, as Joe Torre continues to refuse to predict when Matsui might return to the field.

In the three games since their embarrassing Keyston Kops routine on Friday night in St. Louis, the Yankees have played some of their crispest baseball of the year. Accordingly, they’ve gone 2-1 in those games, twice shutting out their opponent, holding a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning of the one loss, and outscoring their foes 17-5 in the three games combined. Going back to the final game of their Series in Milwaukee, the Yankees are 3-2 in their last five games, a small, but significant sample in that it represents their first winning stretch since late May.

Last night’s victory behind Mike Mussina’s second shutout of the year (his most since 2002) moved the Yankees 1/2 game ahead of the Pirates and within one game of .500, a mark they’ve not equaled in a week and a half. The Yankees also moved into a third-place tie with the Blue Jays in the AL East, 3.5 games behind the Red Sox and 6.5 games behind the first-place Orioles.

Tonight they send Kevin Brown to the mound to face lefty Mark Redman, whom the Yankees handled easily when they last met in Game 2 of the 2003 World Series. In thirteen starts for the Pirates this year, Redman has failed to deliver a quality start (minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 ER) just once, that coming against the Cardinals four starts ago. The reason for Redman’s strong performance has been a combination of a career-high ground-ball rate (2.04 ground balls for every fly ball, twice his usual rate) and the Pirates’ NL-best Defensive Efficiency. Thus the key for the Yankees tonight will be to try to hit the ball in the air, particularly to center field, where Rob Mackowiak and Tike Redman represent the Achilles heal of the Pirates’ defense.

Mark Redman’s consistency also puts the pressure on Brown, who has a superior strike-out rate, a similar ground ball rate, but the second worst defense in baseball (pity Cincinnati) behind him. As a result, hitters are hitting exactly .100 points higher against Brown than they are against Redman. That may not all be due to their respective defenders, but I’d guess that a great deal of it is.

On a more encouraging note, the Yankees did the right thing when disabling Rey Sanchez yesterday in that they called up, not Felix Escalona, but Andy Phillips. With the Yankees facing two left handers in three of their next four games (Redman tonight, Oliver Perez tomorrow, and Glendon Rusch on Saturday), Tino Martinez cold as ice, and Jason Giambi pulling his OBP-only routine (his double off the 408 sign in center last night was just his second extra-base since May 18, and only his fourth since April 20), one hopes that Andy Phillips will get multiple starts at first base in the coming days, thus getting a second chance to establish himself in the Yankee line-up.

That trio of lefty starters might also lead to some bench time for Tony Womack, who, in addition to being useless to begin with, has started hitting everything in the air, which is death for a slap-hitting speedster of his ilk. Allow me to repeat one of my favorite anecdotes from Whitey Herzog’s You’re Missing a Great Game concerning Herzog’s advice to a young Willie Wilson, who was swinging for the fences as a rookie for Kansas City in the mid-’70s:

I still don’t understand what in the hell told him he had home-run pop in his bat . . . the fly balls he hit just gave the outfielders a long way to run before the catch . . . He might get his 12 homers, but the rest of the time he was going to make himself and out, kill our rallies, and put the Kansas City fans in a coma.

What Willie did have, though, was speed . . .With the wheels he had, if Willie’d just learn to . . . beat the ball into the ground, and take off running, he’d be on base more often than Babe Ruth ate hot dogs.

A few walks wouldn’t hurt either. According to baseball’s free agency rules, today is the first day that teams can trade their first-year free agents (such as Womack) without their permission. Here’s hoping those lefties will get Womack out of the line-up, and Cashman’s new freedom to trade him will get Womack out of pinstripes for good.

In more lefty news, Steven Goldman tells me that, despite correctly leaving the righty-batting middle infielder Escalona in Columbus, the Yankees are indeed looking to sit Robinson Cano against lefties. It will be interesting to see if this results in a second base start for Phillips or Russ Johnson (something I’d approve of, as it could decrease the likelihood of either being demoted any time soon). Meanwhile, I’ll be fantasizing of an every-day line-up that looks like this:

Jeter
Bernie
Sheffield
Rodriguez
Posada
Matsui
Phillips
Giambi/Tino
Cano

Pittsburgh Pirates

2004 Record: 72-89 (.447)
2004 Pythagorean Record: 74-87 (.460)

Manager: Lloyd McClendon
General Manager: Dave Littlefield

Ballpark (2004 park factors): PNC Park (96/96)

Who’s replacing whom?

Matt Lawton replaces Jason Kendall
Humberto Cota takes playing time from Daryle Ward (or Craig Wilson due to injury)
Freddy Sanchez inherits Abraham O. Nunez’s playing time
Michael Restovich inherits Randall Simon’s playing time
Dave Ross inherits Chris Stynes playing time
Ryan Doumit inherits Ty Wigginton’s playing time
Mark Redman replaces Kris Benson and Sean Burnett
Dave Williams and Ryan Vogelsong switch roles
Rick White replaces Mark Corey, Brian Boehringer and other random relievers

Current Roster:

1B – Daryle Ward
2B – Jose Castillo
SS – Jack Wilson
3B – Rob Mackowiak
C – Humberto Cota
RF – Matt Lawton
CF – Tike Redman
LF – Jason Bay

Bench:

R – Freddy Sanchez (IF)
S – Bobby Hill (IF)
R – Dave Ross (C)
L – Michael Restovich (OF)
S – Ryan Doumit (C/OF)

Rotation:

R – Kip Wells
L – Mark Redman
L – Oliver Perez
R – Josh Fogg
L – Dave Williams

Bullpen:

R – Jose Mesa
L – Mike Gonazalez
R – Salomon Torres
R – Rick White
R – Brian Meadows
L – John Grabow
R – Ryan Vogelsong

DL:

R – Craig A. Wilson (OF/1B)
L – Sean Burnett (60-day)
R – John Van Benschoten (60-day)

Typical Line-up

L – Matt Lawton (RF)
L – Tike Redman (CF)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
L – Rob Mackowiak (3B)
L – Daryle Ward (1B)
R – Jose Castillo (2B)
R – Humberto Cota (C)
R – Jack Wilson (SS)

Entering a three game series with the Yankees tonight, the Pirates have a .492 actual and .519 Pythagorean winning percentage, both of which are better than the Yankees’ marks (.484 and .505 respectively). The Pirates are currently three games ahead of the Brewers in third place in the NL Central (the Yankees are still languishing a game behind the Blue Jays in fourth in the AL East).

Last week, when the Yankees began a three-game series in Milwaukee, the Brewers had a .464 winning percentage, but a .549 Pythagorean winning percentage. The Brewers then proceeded to take the first two games of that series before losing the third 12-3. Since then Milwaukee has lost four more, for a five-game losing streak that’s dropped them to a .444 actual and .509 Pythagorean winning percentage. The Pirates, meanwhile, are 7-4 in June, having won their last four series (against the Devil Rays, Orioles, Braves and Marlins), this on top of a winning record in May (15-13).

So much for Milwaukee and Pittsburgh providing the Yankees with an opportunity to pad their record. More on how the Pirates have been winning (tonight’s starter, Kip Wells, has been a big part of it) later.

Some quick notes as the Yankees recover from the 3-9 beating they took on their just-completed romp through the heartland:

Rey Sanchez has two bulging disks in his neck and may land on the DL prior to the Pirates series. Should that happen, the Yanks are expected to call up Felix Escalona, following the logic that Sanchez is a back-up infielder and thus should be replaced by one. This is, of course, nonsense. Tony Womack should be sent to the bench, where he can back-up Cano at second. Alex Rodriguez can back-up Jeter at short, and Russ Johnson can back-up Rodriguez at third. There is no need for an extra infielder on this team.

By that logic, it would seem there’s no need for Sanchez on this team, which is something I’ve been saying since spring training. Upon closer examination, however, Sanchez could be useful as a spot-starter at second against lefties (Cano vs L: 3/29, 1 HR, 1 BB–.122 GPA; Sanchez vs L since 2002: .285/.328/.369–.240). That is unless you believe this season is a lost cause and the Yankees would be better off exposing Cano to lefties now in the hopes that he can learn to hit them, making him a more complete player for next year and beyond. With the Yanks two games under .500 less than a month from the All-Star Game but just six back in the AL East in mid-June, I change my mind about this several times a day.

As for Escalona’s ability at the plate, his .308/.371/.431 (.275 GPA) as the Clippers’ starting shortstop last year was head and shoulders above anything he’d done outside of A-ball. This year, at age 26, he’s hitting .279/.364/.413 (.267), a solid-follow up to his break-out 2004 campaign. But solid at triple-A is not reason enough to put a guy on the major league roster. Crushing at triple-A is. For that, we turn to Andy Phillips, who is hitting .340/.389/.670 (.343) with Columbus on the heels of a .318/.388/.569 (.317) performance with the Clippers in 2004. I know Andy fell into a rut when he was here previously, but with Tino 3 for his last 35 with a double and just three walks (.088/.158/.114) and a roster spot opening up, I think it’s time for Phillips to get his second shot to nab the starting job at first base. Besides which, Phillips, like Russ Johnson, can play several infield positions and is serviceable as a back-up outfielder. This team is better with those two men in the Bronx and Andy Phillips could make this team better in the future as well.

Speaking of Tony Womack (I did mention him back there somewhere), according to The New York Times Joe Torre is thinking about moving him into center field, which would allow Hideki Matsui to stay put in left, where he’s a much better defender than he is in center. Meanwhile, Womack (who of course shouldn’t be starting at all, but we’ll get to that shortly) has the potential to improve on Matsui’s defense center thanks to his speed (something I had suggested when initial move of Womack to the outfield was made in early May). There are also rumblings that Womack is rumbling about playing the outfield, telling the press (when asked) that he still considers himself a second baseman. There are also rumblings that there are rumblings that could result in a more significant roster moves than Escalona-for-Sanchez-due-to-injury. Sez Brian Cashman, “I’ve got a lot of things going on behind the scenes.” This after he was seen talking with Womack twice on Sunday.

Could Womack, whose $2 million salary and stellar reputation combined with complete lack of production makes him a top trade candidate, be on the move? We can only hope. In the mean time, Womack could be seen in centerfield during the upcoming home stand, even as soon as tomorrow’s game against the Pirates.

In a related story, Hideki Matsui celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday with a clutch hit and a sprained ankle (he slipped while making a play in right field, where he was starting in place of the resting Gary Sheffield). That puts both his consecutive games streak and Tony Womack’s centerfield debut in jeopardy, as there have been no further rumblings about Bernie Williams playing left field. That suggests that Womack moving to center and being shopped could mean that the Yankees are indeed in the market for a real-life centerfielder (oh pleasepleasepleaseplease).

As for Matsui’s prognosis, despite leaning on Gene Monahan when coming off the field yesterday, wasn’t limping noticeably once back in the dugout, and will likely keep his streak intact, even if it comes via a DH start or a pinch-hitting appearance.

And thus concludes another post that would have been largely unnecessary had the Yankees ponied up for Carlos Beltran.

Having taken the final game in Milwaukee, the Yankees have already exceeded my expectations for the second half of this road trip. Having bollocksed away yesterday’s game, they’re right on target for my expectations of this weekend. Today they get to tangle with Mark Mulder and the alleged Game of the Week curse. Randy Johnson will have his work cut out for him to say the least. One things for certain, we’re not likely to see Jason Giambi starting at first base today.

St. Louis Cardinals

2004 Record: 105-57 (.648)
2004 Pythagorean Record: 100-62 (.617)

Manager: Tony LaRussa
General Manager: Walt Jocketty

Ballpark (2004 park factors): Busch Stadium (97/97)

Who’s replacing whom?

Mark Grudzielanek replaces Edgar Renteria
David Eckstein replaces Tony Womack
Mark Mulder replaces Woody Williams
Randy Flores inherits Steve Kline’s innings
Larry Walker takes over Ray Lankford and Marlon Anderson’s playing time
Yadier Molina inherits Mike Matheny’s playing time
Einar Diaz takes over Molina’s playing time
Abraham Nunez has replaced Hector Luna and is filling in for Scott Rolen (along with Scott Seabol)
Al Reyes inherits Kiko Calero’s playing time
Dan Haren is replaced by various and sundry relievers

Current Roster:

1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Mark Grudzielanek
SS – David Eckstein
3B – Abraham O. Nunez
C – Yadier Molina
RF – Larry Walker
CF – Jim Edmonds
LF – Reggie Sanders

Bench:

L – John Mabry (UT)
R – So Taguchi (OF)
R – Scott Seabol (IF)
R – Einar Diaz (C)
L – Skip Schumaker (OF)

Rotation:

L – Mark Mulder
R – Chris Carpenter
R – Jason Marquis
R – Matt Morris
R – Jeff Suppan

Bullpen:

R – Jason Isringhausen
R – Julian Tavarez
L – Ray King
R – Al Reyes
L – Randy Flores
R – Brad Thompson
L – Gabe White

DL:

R – Scott Rolen (3B)
S – Roger Cedeno (OF)
R – Cal Eldred
R – Mike Lincoln

Typical Line-up

R – David Eckstein (SS)
R – Mark Gruzielanek (2B)
R – Albert Pujols (1B)
L – Jim Edmonds (CF)
R – Reggie Sanders (LF)
L – Larry Walker (RF)
S – Abraham Nunez (3B)
R – Yanier Molina (C)

The Cardinals calling card is their quartet of Hall of Fame-quality sluggers: Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker. But with Rolen on the DL with a shoulder injury (replaced by Pirates castoff Abraham Nunez and the Yankee’s one-time answer to Moonlight Graham, Scott Seabol), and Walker hitting a pedestrian .245/.347/.417 (.265 EQA) at age 38 in his first full season outside of Colorado since 1994, it’s time to give credit to their pitching for their recent dominance of the National League.

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Jerry Seinfeld once said that rooting for a single sports team over a long stretch of time ultimately means that one is rooting not for the players, or even for the coaches or owners, but for the uniform. “Basically,” reasoned Seinfeld, “you’re rooting for laundry.” This is not entirely true (after all, if it were, how would one explain Diamonbacks fans?), but there is a kernal of truth there, even if most teams change their uniforms much more often than they change ownership.

I myself have always enjoyed the history of the ever-changing baseball uniform, and as a result have delighted to the writings of Paul Lukas, whose Uni-Watch column was, along with Allan Barra, one of the reasons why the Village Voice‘s late one-page sports section was such a delight. Like Barra, Lukas initially moved to Slate.com after the Voice dropped sports. Last August, Lukas found a home on ESPN’s Page 2, where Uni-Watch now appears two or three times a month.

The latest Uni-Watch concerns an issue that is close to any baseball traditionalist’s heart: the stirrup sock, which just might be making a comeback thanks to, appropriately enough, the Red Sox. It burns me to say it, but I have to give props to the Sox high-sock contingent (Nixon, Mueller, Bellhorn and Millar), who have started wearing stirrups rather than plain red socks. Moreover, Lukas (perhaps unwittingly) reveals a hidden truth about Curt Schilling’s ACLS stigmata: had Schilling not been a stirrup-wearer, the Bloody Sock never would have been. Much as that would have made me very happy, I still long for the days of the classic stirrup and continue to hope that they will soon return to banish what Lukas calls the pajama brigade, which I believe started with Scott Erickson‘s break out year with the eventual World Champion Twins in 1991.

On a related note, fellow Toaster Alex Ciepley takes a look at the various types of goatees being sported around the league. I for one can’t stand the goatee (or Van Dyke for you facial hair sticklers out there). I remember when they broke into the league in the early ’90s on the faces of men such as Mark McGwire and Dan Gladden as grunge swept the nation and haphazard shaving became all the rage, turning us into a nation of evil twins. Despite my dislike for the style, even I couldn’t resist trying one out for about three days in 1993 just for yucks (though I was more Maynard G. Krebs than evil twin). That was more then a decade ago and the damn things just won’t go away. To add insult to injury, Alex not only drags Goose Gossage’s fu-manchu (a facial styling I also once emulated, resulting in something closer to James Hetfield) into the discussion, but calls Matt Clement’s facial merkin “infinitely more appealing,” than Gossages Hall-worthy stash. Well, I never!

To my memory, Goose was the only non captain to successfully circumvent Boss Steinbrenner’s rule against facial hair below the corners of the mouth (though in recent years David Wells, Roger Clemens and Jason Giambi have all gotten a bit lazy with the sublingual shaving at one time or another, none of them got past the Don Johnson/George Michael stage). Thurman Munson’s 1976 Topps card remains the only time I’ve ever seen a Steinbrenner-era Yankee with full-grown hairs on his chiny-chin-chin, and while I think Thurman looked good in a full beard, I think the Yankees, whose uniforms have remained virtually unchanged for nearly 70 years, are better for it.

I generally try to avoid commenting on the mainstream sports media, in part because I rarely bother to read, watch or listen to it. I get all I need from the outstanding community of bloggers of which I’m privileged to be a part and independent on-line powerhouses such as Baseball Prospectus. MLB.com gives me the quotes and news of a roster move or a change in the rotation and ESPN.com is useful for their stats and pitch-by-pitch data, but neither offer much in the way of useful commentary (though ESPN boasts some top columnists). The daily papers are generally worse than redundant.

Still, sometimes when things take an unexpected turn, I like to breeze through the dailies, or dial on over to WFAN to find out how the mainstream is presenting things. In doing so today, I happened upon a pair of articles in The Star-Ledger that are fairly unexceptional on their own, but are fascinating taken together.

For one reason or another, Star-Ledger staffers Ed Price and Dan Graziano have tackled the exact same topic in today’s paper. That topic is, of course: “what is wrong with the Yankees and how can they fix it?” What’s fascinating is not only that the paper would run two articles on the same exact topic in the same day’s paper, but that the quality of the two articles would be so divergent.

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I didn’t expect to pay much attention to this year’s amateur draft, but with the big club flailing about in Milwaukee, the picks the Yankees have made today (thus far the next Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Rickey Henderson and Dave Winfield–in a perfect world, that is) are providing some hope as the Yankees seem to be doing a fair job of restocking their farm system, with three of their first four picks being used on college players. You can check out some of the comments to my previous post for more info, which I hope to assemble into a draft-wrap post tomorrow.

Meanwhile, back in the suffocating reality of the here and now, the Yankees will try to avoid dropping their fourth straight series tonight against the Brewers. To do so, they’ll have to defeat Ben Sheets, who was nothing short of the third best pitcher in the majors last year (behind Johan Santana and Randy Johnson and well in front of the boosted Rocket). Sheets is looking to get his season back on track following a reoccurring inner ear infection that hospitalized him in May. Thus far he’s made two starts since returning from the DL, lasting just five innings in each, showing the old form against the struggling Astros in the first only to be undermined by his defense, but struggling against the Dodgers in the second. Don’t be surprised to see him put it all together against the Yankees tonight (not that I thought you would be).

When things get rough, just dream about C.J. Henry.

A little over three weeks ago, on Sunday May 15 in Oakland, the Yankees put together a two run seventh inning rally against A’s reliever Ricardo Rincon to beat the Athletics 6-4. The victory was their sixth straight win and pulled their record even for the first time in more than a month. The Yankees then went on to win their next four and ten of their next twelve to push their record a full six games over .500.

The last of those games, a 6-3 Friday night victory at home against the rival Red Sox, also involved a late game rally, when the Yanks touched up Tim Wakefield and Alan Embree for five runs in the sixth inning. Basking in the glow of that victory and the 16-2 run that it capped, pushing the Yankees six games over .500, I claimed that the Yankees had “passed the test” by taking two of three from the Mets, sweeping the Tigers, and rallying to defeat the Red Sox. Since then, the Yankees have gone 1-8 against the Sox, Royals, Twins and now Brewers. Clearly my declaration was premature. With last night’s loss, the Yankees, now seven games behind the Orioles in fourth place in the east, have dipped below .500 once again.

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Milwaukee Brewers

2004 Record: 67-94 (.416)
2004 Pythagorean Record: 68-93 (.422)

Manager: Ned Yost
General Manager: Doug Melvin

Ballpark (2004 park factors): Miller Park (95/96)

Who’s replacing whom?

Carlos Lee replaces Scott Podsednik
J.J. Hardy replaces Craig Counsell
Damian Miller replaces Gary Bennett and cuts into Chad Moeller’s playing time
Jeff Cirillo replaces Keith Ginter
Chris Magruder and Dave Krynzel inherit Ben Grieve’s playing time
Derrick Turnbow replaces Danny Kolb
Ricky Bottalico replaces Luis Vizcaino
Tommy Phelps replaces Dave Burba
Julio Santana replaces Matt Kinney
Jorge de la Rosa inherits Brook Kieschnick’s innings

Current Roster:

1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Junior Spivey
SS – J.J. Hardy
3B – Jeff Cirillo
C – Damian Miller
RF – Geoff Jenkins
CF – Brady Clark
LF – Carlos Lee

Bench:

R – Bill Hall (IF)
R – Wes Helms (3B)
S – Chris Magruder (OF)
R – Chad Moeller (C)
L – Dave Krynzel (OF)

Rotation:

R – Ben Sheets
L – Chris Capuano
R – Victor Santos
R – Wes Obermueller
L – Doug Davis

Bullpen:

R – Derrick Turnbow
R – Ricky Bottalico
L – Tommy Phelps
R – Matt Wise
L – Jorge de la Rosa
R – Julio Santana
R – Gary Glover

DL: L – Russell Branyan (3B)

Typical Line-up

R – Brady Clark (CF)
R – Jeff Cirillo (3B)
L – Geoff Jenkins (RF)
R – Carlos Lee (LF)
L – Lyle Overbay (1B)
R – Junior Spivey (2B)
R – Damian Miller (C)
R – J.J. Hardy (SS)

If the Brewers were to maintain their current .464 winning percentage, they would finish 2005 with their best record since switching over to the National League following the 1997 season, but that’s not the good news for Brewer fans. No, that would be their current Pythagorean winning percentage of .549.

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I didn’t catch much of last night’s 6-3 Yankee loss to the Twins, though from what I saw, I caught plenty of it the first three times they played it in Kansas City. The big difference last night was that the Yanks got out to an early 3-0 lead, thanks in large part to a 2-run dinger from Gary Sheffield. But Moose couldn’t hold it, losing the lead when Lew Ford smacked a 3-run dinger in the fifth to add to the solo shot hit earlier in the game by . . . Brent Abernathy?! The Yanks didn’t get Abernathy out all night, as it turns out. I think that about says it all.

Tonight, Chein-Ming Wang finally gets to take his turn in the rotation following his turn as Yankee tournaquet last Sunday against Boston. At this point I have more confidence with Wang on the mound than with any other starter, Johnson included. That said, Wang’s only poor major league start came on the turf in Tampa Bay when those groundouts he unerringly throws kept scooting past the Yankee defenders. Of course, even if Wang is effective, it likely won’t mean much unless the Yankees can score more than three runs for the first time in a week.