Baltimore Orioles
2004 Record: 78-84 (.481)
2004 Pythagorean Record: 82-80 (.506)
Manager: Lee Mazzilli
General Manager: Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan
Ballpark (2004 park factors): Oriole Park at Camden Yards (104/103)
Who’s replacing whom?
Sammy Sosa replaces Jerry Hairston and a chunk of David Newhan
Bruce Chen takes over the starts of Eric Dubose and Matt Riley
Steve Kline replaces Buddy Groom
Steve Reed replaces Jason Grimsley and Mike DeJean
Chris Gomez replaces a long list of spare parts
Geronimo Gil replaces Robert Machado and himself
Current Roster:
1B – Jay Gibbons
2B – Brian Roberts
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Melvin Mora
C – Javy Lopez
RF – Sammy Sosa
CF – Luis Matos
LF – Larry Bigbie
DH – Rafael Palmeiro
Bench:
L – B.J. Surhoff (OF)
L – David Newhan (UT)
R – Chris Gomez (IF)
R – Geronimo Gil (C)
Rotation:
R – Rodrigo Lopez
R – Daniel Cabrera
L – Erik Bedard
R – Sidney Ponson
L – Bruce Chen
Bullpen:
L – B.J. Ryan
L – Steve Kline
R – Steve Reed
L – John Parrish
R – Todd Williams
R – Jorge Julio
R – Rick Bauer
DL:
R – Jason Grimsley
R – Kurt Ainsworth
L – Val Majewski (OF)
Typical Line-up
S – Brian Roberts (2B)
R – Melvin Mora (3B)
R – Miguel Tejada (SS)
R – Sammy Sosa (RF)
L – Rafael Palmeiro (DH)
R – Javy Lopez (C)
L – Jay Gibbons (1B)
R – Luis Matos (CF)
L – Larry Bigbie (LF)
There was a lot of talk going into the season that the Orioles had an outside chance to slip into second place in the east if one of the Big Two fell on particularly hard times. Most of the motivation for this comes from those infatuated with the Oriole offense. The thing is, the only change the O’s have made to their line-up since last year is the addition of Sammy Sosa, and while that would seem to be a huge upgrade, the numbers just don’t support it. Sosa replaces Jerry Hairston and takes away a significant chunk of David Newhan’s playing time. Hairston was good for 2.2 WARP (Wins Above Replacement) in 2004 and Newhan was good for 2.4. Assuming Sosa takes just half of Newhan’s 373 at-bats (which combined with Hairston’s 287 would give Sammy 473 in 2005, just five fewer than in 2004), Sosa would have to replace 3.4 wins.
