Daily Archives: June 23, 2005

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are fifth in the American League (ninth in the majors) in runs scored. They’re also fifth in the majors in EQA. Thus far this season they are 6-3 against the Yankees, who are second in the majors in both categories. The Devil Rays have now won seven games on the road this year, three of them in the Bronx. Tampa has scored 7.2 runs per game against the Yankees, scoring five or more in eight of their nine meetings. The Yankees have scored 7.4 runs against Tampa, scoring four or fewer runs in five of their nine meetings, but scoring a total of 39 runs in just two games.

Those are a lot of ugly numbers. Chien-Ming Wang, whom I’m officially dubbing the anchor of this Yankee rotation (Moose and Unit are the aces, Meat and Mr. Nasty are the question marks, Tiger is the anchor), looks to keep the top half of the scoreboard neat and tidy tonight as the Yanks try to save some face by salvaging a split of this four game series with the worst team in their league.

Wang’s mound opponent is 6’9″ lefty Mark Hendrickson (whose official name, by the way, is “6’9″ Lefty Mark Hendrickson”). Hendrickson has some ugly numbers of his own (5.83 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 4.18 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, 1.27 HR/9, opponents hitting .322/.371/.516, 7.55 road ERA, 9.43 June ERA). The only thing Hendrickson does well is stifle lefties (.219/.269/.329). That should mean more bench time for Tony Mowack. Whether or not we’ll see Russ Johnson (2 for 9 vs. lefties this year after an 0 for 2 against Scott Kazmir yesterday) get his second consecutive start at first, well, I doubt it, but we’ll find out soon enough.

[note: I started to write the below in the comments to Alex’s last post, responding to Simone’s inquiries about Carl Pavano’s ground-ball ratios and home run rates, but after I finished, I thought it deserved it’s own post]

Shall we try the old blind taste test gimmick?

Pitcher A: 6.89 ERA, 1.91 HR/9, 6.32 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.00 K/BB
Opposition vs. Pitcher A: .360/.404/.567 (.324 GPA)

Pitcher B: 2.49 ERA, 1.15 HR/9, 4.40 K/9, 1.15 BB/9, 3.83 K/BB
Opposition vs. Pitcher B: .260/.293/.443 (.243 GPA)

These pitchers are currently sharing a spot in the Yankee rotation. It sure would be nice if the team would let Pitcher B take over Pitcher A’s starts? The problem is that they can’t. You see, both of these pitchers are Carl Pavano. Pitcher B is Carl Pavano on the road. Pitcher A is Carl Pavano at home.

This is why Meat has been rotten. It’s not his ground ball rates (Pavano has a career ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 1.42, this year he’s inducing 1.58 grounders for every fly). It’s not even his home run rates. Observe:

Playing his home games in le Stad Olympique as an Expo from 1998 to 2002, Pavano gave up 1.09 HR/9, while his home park had an average park factor of 101.4. Playing his home games at Pro Player Stadium as a Marlin from 2002 to 2004, Pavano gave up 0.74 HR/9, while his home part had an average park factor of 95.3. Taking into account that Pavano spent his natural peak in a Florida uniform (ages 26-28) and that it was as a Marlin that he finally beat the injury bug and came into his own as a pitcher, those numbers make perfect sense. Pavano’s 1.15 HR/9 on the road as a Yankee also fits logically with Meat’s move from the National to American League and the 1.09 HR/9 he posted in the only slightly hitter-friendly Montreal as a National Leaguer.

What doesn’t fit is that insane 1.91 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium, a park that has had a factor of 97 in each of the last two seasons (and a 98 in 2002). Which brings us right back to where we started.

Pavano’s struggles in the Bronx are hard to explain in baseball terms, but the fact that he’s a Connecticut kid who grew up in Yankee country could have something to do with it. If Pavano is simply dealing with some psychological issues (nerves, pressing, anxiety, what ever you want to call it) when it comes to pitching in Yankee Stadium (and, most likely, in front of more friends and family than he was accustomed to in Montreal and Miami), then one could hope that, as the initial excitement wears off and these starts become more routine, his home performance will fall closer in line with his road performance. If so, that would be a huge boost for the Yankees.

The question is, how long will that take. Pavano’s first three Yankee Stadium starts this year (not counting the start against the Orioles in which he was beaned by a Melvin Mora comebacker) were his only quality starts at home on the season, the last of those coming against the A’s on May 6. Things took a turn for the worse in that May 11 home game against the Mariners and Jamie Moyer in which Pavano was victimized by Alex Rodriguez’s dreadful play at third base and a quartet of Seattle homers. So things would actually seem to be heading in the wrong direction were it not for his encouraging non-homer peripherals from yesterday’s two-homer loss to the Devil Rays: 6 2/3 IP, 4 1B, 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 BB, 7 K.

Incidentally, if you take that one start against Seattle away, Pavano’s home HR/9 drops to 1.26. Another crack in the wall between Pavano’s home and road starts is that, despite that ridiculous home road split for HR/9, Pavano has allowed 20 extra base hits in 203 opposition at-bats at home and 18 extra base hits in 181 opposition at-bats on the road for an isolated power of .207 at home and .182 on the road, which, though continuing to demonstrate his inferior performance at home, isn’t as extreme a split as his other numbers would suggest. Could it be that an effective pinstriped Carl Pavano is indeed on the horizon? If so, the Yankees may have more fight in ’em than we think. If not, well, you can probably write them off now.

John Harper thinks that yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Devil Rays is one of the Yankees’ worst of the season:

In a season of stunning losses, you can make a case that this was the most alarming one of all. In the manager’s office afterward, you could see it in Joe Torre’s face. You could hear it in his tone of voice more than his words.

…”This was a tough loss,” Torre said afterward in a rather grave tone. “After what we did (Tuesday) night…and today we had a couple of leads, and we couldn’t hold onto it. It’s a setback, no question.”

From what he’s seen of the Yankees in the past week, Harper opines:

It’s more of a sign than ever that they’re destined to be an inconsistent club all season, talented enough to put together occasional hot streaks, but not complete enough to sustain the type of high-level performance that has marked the Torre era.