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Daily Archives: September 27, 2005

Every Game Counts, Except These

It took four hours and sixteen minutes and 398 pitches, but last night’s 17-9 Yankee loss to the Baltimore Orioles finally came to an end just before 11:30 p.m. EST last night. And in the end, it meant nothing. Yes, despite the fact that the Yankees are in a three way tie for the AL East and the Wild Card with just five games left to play in the season, last night’s loss meant nothing. That’s because the Red Sox, Indians, and White Sox all lost last night as well.

In the end, the evening was a complete wash for the American League save for the Angels clinching the West with a 4-3 win over the A’s. All that happened was that one more game came off the schedule. Thus, despite the Yankees failure to emerge with a victory last night, their Drive For Five is down to four. With four wins the Yankees will win the American League East.

For those gluttons for punishment, the bloody details of last night’s games follow the jump.

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The Drive For Five

The Red Sox won Game One of their double-header today 3-1. It was a swift, low-scoring affair that took just 2 hours and 23 minutes to play and was dominated by pitching, particularly the pitching of Tim Wakefield (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K), who didn’t allow a hit through the first four innings. All three Red Sox runs were driven in by Boston’s Big Boys, two by David Ortiz (1 for 4, 2B, 2Ks) and one by Manny Ramirez (1 for 2, IBB, HBP, throwing error). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays wasted the solid pitching of Dave Bush and Dustin McGowan by stranding runners in scoring position in the eighth and ninth against Jon Papelbon and Mike Timlin.

And with that, the Red Sox and Yankees are again tied atop the AL East. Of course. You didn’t actually think the Yankees would get any breathing room, did you? Still, for those in a state of panic over what awaits the Yankees in the coming week, consider this: The Yankees only need to win five games to make the postseason. That’s it. Just five.

Of course, there are only six games left in the season, but if the Yankees win five of them, there is no way the Red Sox can beat them. Of course, part of the reason for that is that a minimum of two of those wins will have to come against the Sox this weekend (if the Yanks sweep the O’s they’ll enter that series no worse than tied and can win the division by taking two of three in Boston, if they drop just one game to the O’s, they can still win the division by sweeping the Sox as they’ll be no worse than a game out come Friday morning). Yes, that sounds daunting when you spell out how those five wins would have to be acquired, but when you think about it as just five wins, five of six for a team that has won 13 of their last 15, it doesn’t sound so bad.

Tonight the Yankees look to drop that quasi-magic number (their actual magic number is seven, but any Yankee win against the Sox would take two off of that as it represents any combination of Yankee wins and Red Sox loses that totals seven) to four by sending Mike Mussina back to the hill against Bruce Chen. Last Thursday, Mussina came off the unofficial disabled list to pitch six efficient innings allowing just one unearned run on four hits and no walks while striking out six men. It was the ideal outing for Moose coming off the elbow inflammation that shut him down for more than three weeks. He threw just 76 pitches, 76 percent of which were strikes, mixing in his full repertoire, getting his fastball up to 91 and a nice break on his knucklecurve.

Chen, meanwhile, cruised through the first four innings, retiring twelve straight men after a Derek Jeter lead-off single and a Bernie Castro error started the first. Jorge Posada then led off the fifth with a solo homer and capped a four-run Yankee rally in the sixth with a three-run dinger that drove Chen from the game. Still, it’s worth remembering that, prior to that start, Chen had turned in eight quality start in his nine outings since returning to the Oriole rotation after a brief tune-up in the bullpen in late July, and had posted a 1.84 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP in those nine starts combined.

Mussina reported no discomfort following his bullpen session on Saturday. Obviously, the Yankees hope he will be able to build on last week’s start, stretching out his pitch count in anticipation of Sunday’s season finale against Curt Schilling and the Red Sox. Having Mussina back at full strength would be a tremendous boon to the Yankees playoff hopes. On his career, Mussina has a 2.90 ERA in September, his best mark in any single month save his 0.95 ERA in five regular season October starts (Sunday is October 2). Separating out the past three seasons (2002-2004) that September ERA improves to 2.50. Moose also has a career 3.16 ERA in the postseason, nearly a half-run better than his career ERA during the regular season. This is his time of year, and it’s great to see him back in action. Here’s hoping I still feel that way after the last out of tonight’s game.

Making and ASS Out Of U And ME

Eleven days have passed since I last played the assumption game to try to predict how the Yankees, Red Sox and Indians would be stacked up heading into the season’s final weekend. Thus far, the Red Sox and Indians have performed exactly as expected (though the Red Sox have done so by sweeping the Orioles and losing two of three to the Devil Rays where I expected them to take two of three from both), while the Yankees, in sweeping Baltimore last week at home, have exceeded my assumptions by one game. As a result, rather than trailing the Sox and Tribe by a game, the Yankees have pulled even with them (pending the result of Game One of today’s doubleheader in Boston, that is).

With just three games left before the division showdowns in Boston and Cleveland, let’s look at this another way. Let’s assume the Red Sox win this afternoon and that the Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, and Tribe all win two of their remaining three games prior to this weekend. That will keep the standings where they are and send the Bosox, Indians and Yankees into the final three games with identical records, two games behind the White Sox. If that were to happen, here are the possible outcomes this weekend:

Assuming the Yanks and Sox split their series two games to one, the winner winning the AL East:

If Cleveland sweeps Chicago, the Indians win the Central, the White Sox win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Cleveland wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.

If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, the NY/Bos loser wins the Wild Card and the Indians winner go home.

If the NY/Bos series results in a sweep here’s what changes:

If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.

If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.

It seems unlikely that the standings will remain unchanged through Friday morning, but it’s fun to speculate. This can also serve as a game thread for anyone watching or otherwise keeping track of the day game in Boston.

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"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver