Daily Archives: October 4, 2005

The first pitch Bartolo Colon threw in last night’s game buzzed past Derek Jeter at 95 miles per hour for a strike. The second pitch he threw resulted in a Jeter groundout to third. Colon then struck out Alex Rodriguez on three pitches and got ahead of Jason Giambi with strike one. The Angel ace was dealing. After his seventh pitch was called for a ball, the first he threw on the night, Colon unleashed another 95 mile per hour heater that tailed down and in on Giambi.

Giambi, who at the beginning of the season appeared incapable of getting around even on low-90s heat, turned on the pitch and lined it into right for a single. Colon then got ahead of Gary Sheffield 0-2 and attempted to put him away with a similar pitch on the outside corner, but Sheffield stuck out his rear and poked the pitch into right for another single, pushing Giambi to second. Hideki Matsui followed with a seven pitch at-bat that ended with yet another single to right, loading the bases for Robinson Cano’s first postseason appearance.

After a quick visit to the mound by Angels pitching coach Bud Black, Colon started Cano off with just his second ball of the night. The rookie second baseman then took a strike to even the count and fouled off another to fall behind 1-2. After Colon again evened the count with another ball, Cano hit a laser down the third base line foul, then creamed the sixth pitch he saw over Garret Anderson’s head in left, clearing the bases and giving the Yankees a 3-0 lead.

As it turns out, that was all the Yankees would need. Despite Joe Torre’s confidence, even Mike Mussina wasn’t sure what he’d bring to the mound pitching on six days rest and coming off a dreadful outing in Baltimore (2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R) last week. As it turns out, Mussina had everything working. His fastball hit 91 miles per hour, his control was excellent, and his knuckle curve was sharp.

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The line-ups for tonight’s game are posted over on the YES Network site.

So far, so good. Torre is going with Crosby in center, and Bernie at DH, while Scioscia is running Erstad and Finley out there, with Anderson resigned to DH, Juan Rivera in left [Update: actually, reverse that], and Adam Kennedy burried in the nine-hole. Dig:

Yankees

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Jason Giambi (1B)
R – Gary Sheffield (RF)
L – Hideki Matsui (LF)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
S – Bernie Williams (DH)
L – Bubba Crosby (CF)

R – Mussina (P)

Angels

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Vlad Guerrero (RF)
L – Darin Erstad (1B)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
L – Steve Finley (CF)
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

R – Bartolo Colon (P)

The only thing Scioscia did right is put Molina behind Guerrero [Update: actually, he screwed that up too]. Kotchman and DaVanon are left to rot on the bench. Check the YES link above to see these line-ups along with their triple-crown stats and OBPs, the latter of which are particularly enlightening.

Still no word on the Yankees final playoff roster, though honestly, the last man on the bench and in the bullpen shouldn’t see any action in this series, let alone play an important role. If he does, it’s likely going to mean bad news for the Yanks.

Update:

The roster is set:

1B – Jason Giambi
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jorge Posada
RF – Gary Sheffield
CF – Bubba Crosby
LF – Hideki Matsui
DH – Bernie Williams

Bench:

L – Tino Martinez (1B)
S – Ruben Sierra (OF)
S – Mark Bellhorn (IF)
L – Tony Womack (OF)
R – John Flaherty (C)

Rotation:

R – Mike Mussina
R – Chien-Ming Wang
L – Randy Johnson
R – Shawn Chacon

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Tom Gordon
R – Tanyon Sturtze
R – Aaron Small
R – Scott Proctor
L – Alan Embree
L – Al Leiter

As Cartman told Starvin’ Marvin in South Park’s first Thanksgiving episode

“You see Starvin’ Marvin, these are what we call appetizers. This is what you eat before you eat, to make you more hungry.”

In the game already underway, Jake Peavy is getting rocked by the Cardinals offense while Chris Carpenter is rolling.

At 4:00 Matt Clement, the pitcher I think the Yankees should have signed this offseason, and Jose Contreras, the one I’m glad they traded last year, match up in Chicago.

If anyone’s interested in chatting about this afternoon’s action, this is the place to do it.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2005 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2005 Pythagorean Record: 94.5-67.5 (.583)

Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Bill Stoneman

Ballpark (2004 park factors): Angel Stadium (99/99)

Postseason Roster:

1B – Darin Erstad
2B – Adam Kennedy
SS – Orlando Cabrera
3B – Chone Figgins
C – Bengie Molina
RF – Vladimir Guerrero
CF – Steve Finley
LF – Garret Anderson
DH – Juan Rivera

Bench:

L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
S – Jeff DaVanon (OF)
S – Maicer Izturis (IF)
R – Robb Quinlan (3B/1B)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Josh Paul (C)

Rotation:

R – Bartolo Colon
R – John Lackey
R – Paul Byrd
L – Jarrod Washburn

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
R – Scot Shields
R – Brendan Donnelly
R – Kelvim Escobar
R – Kevin Gregg
R – Ervin Santana

DL:

L – Dallas McPherson (3B) (60-day)
R – Matt Hensley (60-day)
R – Tim Salmon (OF) (60-day)

Typical Line-up

S – Chone Figgins (3B)
R – Orlando Cabrera (SS)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
R – Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
L – Darin Erstad (1B)
R – Bengie Molina (C)
L – Steve Finley (CF)
R – Juan Rivera (DH)
L – Adam Kennedy (2B)

The Yankees and the Angels enter the ALDS with identical regular season records of 95-67. They also had the two best records in baseball over the final weeks of the season, the Angels finishing 14-2, the Yankees 16-5. But despite displaying an equal ability to win, they’ve gone about it in drastically different ways.

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There are previews galore in the papers this morning, but with all due respect to the analytical acumen of the print media, there isn’t anybody’s take on the Angels that interests me more than that of my pal Rich Lederer. Lederer, who co-runs the fine Baseball Analysts site with Bryan Smith, was born and raised in Long Beach, California and has followed the Angels forever. He was kind enough to burn the midnight oil last night to provide us with his scouting report on the ALDS series between the Bombers and the Halos. Here it goes:

ALDS Preview

By Rich Lederer

Hitting: The Yankees can flat out hit. Outside of Vladimir Guerrero, the Angels can not hit. The Bronx Bombers slugged 82 more home runs this year than the Angels. That’s two extra dingers in a four or five-game series. Although the team batting averages are nearly the same, the Yankees have a much better on-base percentage, thanks to almost 200 more walks during the regular season. Yes, the NYY drew 44% more BB than the LAA in 2005. Garret Anderson is a shell of what he once was and is nothing more than a guess hitter who can look good when he’s right or bad when he’s wrong. If I’m the Yankees, I don’t let Guerrero beat me. Treat him like Barry Bonds. Make someone else get the big hit. Unlike Bonds, Guerrero lacks patience and may get overanxious from time to time, particularly in a playoff situation. The AL MVP in 2004 was 2-for-12 with 4 SO against the Boston Red Sox in last year’s ALDS. Vladi is a very dangerous hitter, but he can be had. I just don’t know if the Yankees have the type of pitching that can neutralize him.

The Angels led the majors in stolen bases but their SB percentage was lower than the Yankees. Mike Scioscia’s club can and will run with Chone Figgins leading the way. They will also try to take extra bases, if and when they can.

Fielding: The Angels are strong up the middle with Bengie Molina at catcher, Orlando Cabrera at short, and Adam Kennedy at second. Steve Finley is no longer a Gold Glove CF although he shines out there in comparison to Bernie Williams, who could well be a big liability out there against the Angels. Darin Erstad is heads and shoulders better than Jason Giambi at first base, not only in terms of range but watch him dig out balls in the dirt. He does that better than anyone in the game. Guerrero has one of the strongest and most respected outfield arms in all of baseball. Alex Rodriguez is better than anyone the Angels can put at third, but I don’t think the Angels would necessarily take a backseat to any other matchup defensively.

Starting Pitching: What can you say when Kelvim Escobar can’t even make your five-man rotation? Bartolo Colon and Kevin Lackey are about as good of a 1-2 punch in the AL as any other tandem. Colon is a bulldog and Lackey is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league. The Angels appear to be undecided about who they will start in games three and four. Jarrod Washburn just might be the odd man out. Yes, the lefty with the fourth-best ERA in the AL may not get a chance to start in this series. Instead, he may be relegated to the bullpen–a role I don’t think he is well-suited for–to give the Angels a long reliever or a LOOGY, if need be.

The Angels, believe it or not, actually have four starters with better ERAs than Randy Johnson. That said, I would take the Big Unit over all of ’em if I could only pick one starter out of the bunch to win a game. The problem for the Yankees, though, is that Johnson isn’t scheduled to start until Game Three on Friday. He will be well rested, but I’m afraid the New Yorkers may be down 0-2 going into that tilt. Colon and Lackey have to be heavy favorites to beat the Yankees in Anaheim in Games One and Two. Let’s face it, Joe Torre has no idea what he is going to get when Mike Mussina takes the mound tonight. A victory in Game One would give the Yankees the home-field edge as well as the confidence and momentum to take the series.

Ervin Santana may be asked to start on Friday or Saturday in New York. I would hand him the ball in Game Three against Johnson and, as an up and down type pitcher, hope he comes through because he has the stuff, if not the experience. The Yankees, however, would be prohibitive favorites in a game featuring Johnson at home vs. Santana. The rookie has been nothing short of awful on the road this year. [Ed: As it turns out Paul Byrd will start Game Three, while Washburn gets the nod in Game Four.]

Colon in Anaheim in a potential Game Five matches up well to any pitcher not named Johnson. The Yankees can only hope they clinch it in four games or less because the odds of beating the man who may wind up winning the Cy Young Award in the rubber match will be long at best.

Bullpen: With Mariano Rivera on their side, Yankees fans may not want to hear–much less believe–that the Angels have a decidely better bullpen. The AL West champs simply have better depth than the Yankees. Look for Scioscia to go to Scott Shields in the eighth inning and Frankie Rodriguez in the ninth almost every chance he gets. Escobar could be a difference maker. He gives the Angels another power arm out of the ‘pen. Torre doesn’t have the luxury of going to an Escobar. What it comes down to is that the Angels’ bridge between their starters and closer is much stronger than what Torre can put out there.

Rodriguez has been relying more and more on his big breaking ball in crucial situations. He only throws his once unhittable fastball about half the time now. The key is not to go fishing for his nasty sliders that, more often than not, end up low and/or outside. Rest assured that K-Rod will face A-Rod at least once with the game on the line in the ninth inning.

Manager: Two of the best. Distinctly different styles. Yankees players and fans rightfully love Torre. Angels players and fans admire Scioscia. Torre will probably be questioned for who he does or doesn’t start, while Scioscia will more likely be second-guessed if the Angels run into outs on the basepaths or use up outs by playing small ball. Call it a draw. Both of these guys have won it all and want nothing more than to win another one.

Keys for the Angels to win: Not letting Mussina beat them in Game One. A second or third bat (Casey Kotchman or Juan Rivera, anyone?) to step up and take some of the load off Guerrero. Beating Randy Johnson.

Keys for the Yankees to win: Winning Game One. Getting quality starts from each of their starters. A healthy Jason Giambi throughout the series.

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