Daily Archives: November 12, 2007

Just as I was putting the finishing touches on a post about how important it is for the Yankees to re-sign Jorge Posada, no matter the cost, the word came down that Posada had indeed re-upped with the Bombers to the tune of $52.4 million over four years. Posada came within hours of hitting the market, as free agents are able to sign with any of the 30 major league teams starting today.

I’ll get to the length and cost of Posada’s contract (which just inches past the matching $52-mil/4-yr deals given Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui prior to the 2006 season) in a moment. First a word on Posada’s value on the field.

Put as simply as possible, here’s what the average major league catcher hit in 2007: .256/.318/.394.

Now here’s Posada’s 2007 season: .338/.426/.543 in 144 games.

Need I go on?

Okay, here are the top VORP totals by catchers in 2007:

Jorge Posada: 73.4
Victor Martinez: 55.0
Russell Martin: 46.1
Joe Mauer: 30.2

Notice how Posada’s total is nearly as high as the third and fourth best catchers combined? Notice that the other three players are a minimum of three years from hitting the market (Mauer and Martinez are signed through 2010, and Martin will be under team control through 2011).

Let’s do this with 2006, shall we?

Average C: .269/.329/.416
Posada: .277/.374/.492 in 143 games

VORP Leaders, Catchers:

Joe Mauer: 66.9
Brian McCann: 54.8
Victor Martinez: 47.8
Jorge Posada: 38.0

Sure, Jorge didn’t dominate the field in 2006 like he did in 2007, but notice the trend: Jorge outdistances the average catcher’s production by a laughable margin, while the VORP leaders at the position are once again Jorge and three guys who won’t hit the market for another three years.

To be fair, there are four other catchers from the 2006 top-20 who are currently free agents. Here are their 2007 seasons:

Michael Barrett: .244/.281/.372, 101 games
Paul Lo Duca: .272/.311/.378, 119 games
Mike Piazza: .275/.313/.414, 83 games (0 games caught)
Jason Kendall: .242/.301/.309, 137 games

By the way, Lo Duca’s 2007 season above was good for the 19th best VORP by a catcher this season, which means 11 teams did a lot worse at the position Actually, 12 did worse, as Lo Duca’s backup, Ramon Castro, finished 12th. Meanwhile, Lo Duca and Castro combined had less than one-third of Posada’s VORP total.

Any questions?

(more…)

The American and National League Rookies of the Year will be announced in a little more than an hour. In the AL, Dustin Pedroia, who hit .317/.380/.442 over 139 games while playing a strong second base, is the easy choice. Pedroia’s case gets even stronger when you set aside his April struggles and consider that he hit .333/.389/.467 over the remainder of the season. Pre-season favorite Delmon Young’s .288/.316/.408 just can’t compete, nor can the performances of Pedroia’s Japanese teammates Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.40 ERA, 15-12, 201 K, 80 BB) or Hideki Okajima (2.22 ERA in 66 relief appearances).

Though they really shouldn’t even be in the discussion, the Yankees’ best candidates in a year in which they had nine pitchers make their major league debut (six of them as starters) are Joba Chamberlain (0.38 ERA, 34 K and 6 BB in 24 relief innings over 19 appearances), Phil Hughes (4.46 ERA, 5-3, 58 K and 29 BB in 72 2/3 innings over 13 starts), and Shelley Duncan (.257/.329/.554, 7 HR in a mere 74 at-bats).

The NL’s a far more compelling contest with four strong contenders topping a deep field that also includes Josh Hamilton (.292/.368/.554, 19 HR in 298 AB), Mark Reynolds (.279/.349/.495, 17 HR in 366 AB), James Loney (.331/.381/.538, 15 HR in 344 AB), Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 AB), Peter Moylan (1.80 ERA in 90 relief innings), and Tim Lincecum (4.00 ERA, 7-5, 150 K, 65 BB in 146 1/3 innings). Here are those top four:

Ryan Braun (3B – Mil): .324/.370/.634, 34 HR, 15/20 SB, (113 G)
Troy Tulowitski (SS – Col): .291/.359/.479, 24 HR, 7/13 SB, (155 G)
Hunter Pence (CF – Hou): .322/.360/.539, 56 XBH, 11/16 SB, (108 G)
Chris Young (CF – AZ): .237/.295/.467, 32 HR, 27/33 SB, (148 G)

On raw numbers, Braun seems the obvious choice, but his defense at third base was abysmal, while Tulowitzki’s play at shortstop was Gold-Glove worthy (though not Gold-Glove winning). Young nearly went 30-30 as a rookie, but his .237 average and corresponding sub-.300 OBP should eliminate him. Pence very well could have won this award if not for a broken wrist that cost him a month of the season beginning in late July. The big question is, can the tremendous chasm between Braun and Tulowitski’s defensive performances overrule the fact that Tulo gives up 11 points of OBP and a whopping 165 points of slugging to Braun while also having been inferior on the bases?

Update: Turns out Tulo’s defensive advantage was almost enough, but not quite. Braun won the NL Rookie of the Year by just two points over Tulowitski as he earned two more first-place votes. Of the 32 voters, 17 placed Braun first and Tulowitzki second, 14 listed Tulo first and Braun second, and one put Tulo first and Braun third. In the AL, Pedroia took it easy being listed first on 24 of 28 ballots. Delmon Young finished a very distant second followed by Brian Bannister (3.87 ERA, 12-9, 77 K, 44 BB in 165 IP), Matsuzaka, and Okajima. The first place votes that didn’t go to Pedroia went to Young (3) and Bannister (1).

“My first priority is the Yankees,” Posada said. “I would like to stay with the Yankees.”
(New York Times)

From what I’ve been reading, it seems as if the Yankees are moving quickly to re-sign Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. The deals could happen as early as this week. Posada is looking for more than three years. That is crazy talk for a 36-year-old catcher, but with Jason Giambi in his final year with the Yankees in ’08, Posada would ideally slide into the DH role. Slowly, he could give up catching entirely and be the full-time DH, don’t you think?

Andy Pettitte, on the other hand, appears to be a longshot to play ball again. But if the Twins decide to move Johan Santana next month at the winter meetings, the Yankees will be involved…

Happy Monday, troops. Whatta ya hear, whatta ya say?