Daily Archives: July 8, 2008

Most likely this is simply another period of transition as the 24-year-old Garza works to establish himself alongside lefty Scott Kazmir (also 24) and righty James Shields (26) to give the Rays the best trio of starters their brief existence, prospects from Longoria and Brignac to 2007 top pick and potential ace David Price continue to fight their way toward the majors, and established starters such as Upton and catcher Dioner Navarro attempt to mature on the job. The rate at which each of those things happen will determine the rate of the Rays’ improvement. Heck, by the All-Star break, this team could have Longoria and any of a handful of pitching prospects in place, Garza, Upton and company could be thriving, and the Rays could be well on their way to that 88-win projection, but given their bad luck and self-defeating maneuvers such as the demotion of Longoria, I just don’t see it happening.

While the Rays’ have made incremental improvements in their pitching and defense, their offense should break even as Carlos Peña regresses from his monster breakout season of a year ago. The result is likely something resembling a well-balanced 75-win team, which is a nice step up from a duck-and-cover 67-win team, but it’s not about to change the complexion of the division. At least not this season. –Cliff Corcoran, April 4, 2008

Uhm . . . oops.

To be fair a lot of those “things” that I said needed to happen for the Rays to become a winning team have happened. Longoria was called up and installed at third base just a week after I wrote the above and has since emerged as the second-best third baseman in the American League behind Alex Rodriguez by hitting .283/.354/.535 while playing fantastic defense. Longoria, who has hit .331/.397/.653 since June 1, is probably the most deserving of the Final Vote candidates for the final spot on the AL All-Star roster. Dioner Navarro, who is hitting .317/.371/.436, is already on the All-Star roster and has been the second best catcher in the league in the first half. B.J. Upton has lost a lot of the power he showed last year, but has made up for it with an tremendous improvement in his approach at the plate as evidenced by the drop in his K/BB ratio from 2.37 in 2007 to 1.21 and his .391 on-base percentage against a .277 average. Garza overcame some early-season elbow trouble and has posted a 3.02 ERA in his last 14 starts. Reid Brignac and pitching prospect Mitch Talbot have had tastes of the major leagues already this year.

Everything has gone according to the Rays’ plan in the first half. They have the best defensive efficiency in baseball. That has lifted their pitching from last in the league to third, with both Garza and lefty ace Scott Kazmir, who starts against Andy Pettitte tonight, benefiting greatly on balls in play with BABIPs in the low .260s. Former Dodgers prospect Edwin Jackson, still just 24 year old, has gotten a lift as well with a .281 BABIP and a league-average major league ERA which is more than a run better than his career mark. Rounded out by Andy Sonnanstine, who has a 3.15 ERA in his last seven starts, the Rays have a solid five-man rotation of which the 26-year-old James Shields is the oldest member. More good pitching out of the bullpen and a surprisingly strong offense led by the rookie Longoria, a career year from four-corner utility man Eric Hinske (.264/.349/.524), and the robust on-base percentages of Upton and Navarro, have put the Rays in a position from which they could post a .446 winning percentage the rest of the way and still fulfill PECOTA’s bold 88-win projection.

Odds are they’ll do better than that. Despite all of the above going their way, the Rays have still suffered from repeated injuries to closer Troy Percival and DH Cliff Floyd. Garza and Kazmir have both lost time to injury as well, and Rocco Baldelli hasn’t played above A-ball all year. What’s more, shortstop Jason Bartlett, who came over in the deal for Garza, was supposed to be the anchor of their improved defense, but has been a disappointment in the field and an embarrassment at the plate (.204/.268/.358, only slightly better than Jose Molina). Bartlett is on the DL with a knee sprain right now, opening the door to an improvement at his position as prospect Reid Brignac battles Ben Zobrist for playing time at shortstop. In addition to the upgrade at Bartlett’s spot, the Rays should be able to expect more pop from Upton and more than the league-average production they’ve received from Carl Crawford in the first half.

Good health and those slight improvements on offense could offset some of the expected regressions elsewhere. With 74 games left to play, if the Rays merely played that the level the Yankees have in the first half (.528 winning percentage entering tonight’s game) they would win 94 games, a total that could put them in the postseason, as it did for the Yankees a year ago.

Given all of that, the Yankees have done well to split their first ten games against the Rays this season. However, four of those five wins came in April. In their last meeting in mid-May, the Rays took three of four from the Bombers at the Trop. Coming into this week’s brief two-game set in the Bronx, the Rays are red-hot having won 11 of their last 13 including a three-game sweep of the Red Sox.

The good news is that Kazmir has cooled off after a stretch of six starts in May, including one against the Yankees, in which he allowed four runs in 41 innings. Since then, Kazmir has posted a 4.67 ERA and turned in just one quality start in five tries, that coming back on June 11. Kazmir still isn’t giving up very many hits, but the ones he is giving up are traveling, as he’s allowed a .471 slugging percentage over those five starts with nearly half of his hits allowed going for extra bases. He’s also getting wild again, walking 5 men per nine innings over those last five starts. Over the same stretch, Andy Pettitte was dominant for four starts (4-0, 1.00 ERA) before his ugly outing against the Red Sox on Thursday.

Despite yesterday’s off-day, Jose Molina will make his third-straight start behind the plate tonight with Jason Giambi getting a day off against the lefty Kazmir. Jorge Posada will DH with Wilson Betemit at first base. Those two are hitting fifth and sixth in the order ahead of Robinson Cano despite the fact that Cano is hitting .396/.400/.625 over his last dozen games (note the complete lack of walks, those extra OBP points are from a HBP).

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How do you spell C-O-O-L?

How about this bit of tastiness for your ears? Ideal for keeping it low and slow on another hot day in the Big Apple.

Scott Kazmir and the Rays are ready to rumble in the Bronx. According to Bart O’Connell in the Tampa Trib:

“It’s going to be different. I think the fans are going to be a little more on us, compared to the past,” Kazmir said. “It might be kind of mixed a little bit, because we’ve been beating the Red Sox and they like that, but coming into their park, I don’t think they’re going to be too happy to see us and we’re ahead of them. There’s going to be a lot of tension in there.”

Kazmir does not see this series alone as an opportunity to knock the Yankees out of postseason contention, a possibility some have suggested.

“No, no, no. Nothing like that. We still have a whole half of the season to go, so it couldn’t just be on one game, one inning,” he said. “But if we put the pressure on them these next couple games, and end up finishing strong in the first half, I think it’ll put us in a good situation.”

In the New York Post, Brian Costello has this from Cliff Floyd:

“It used to be going to play the Yankees was a big deal. It’s not a big deal. We’re just going to play baseball. We put ourselves in a position where there’s no pressure.”

Also, from the Tampa Trib:

“Sometimes you could beat them on mistakes, and they don’t make mistakes any more,” [Jason] Giambi said.

…”When you get veterans from other teams saying those kinds of things, that, to me, means as much as anything,” Maddon said after reading Giambi’s words of praise. “I think peer acceptance, peer validation, is the strongest or the one that resonates the loudest. For me, that does mean something and it does matter and we as an organization appreciate those comments.”

Could be a fun two-game series. Sure is a hot one out there…

I used to litter causually, without giving it much thought.  I’d think nothing of stuffing a newspaper between my legs, under my seat on the train when I was finished with it.  Or I’d toss a gum wrapper on the ground. 

Then one day about ten years ago, I was walking down the street with my friend Joey La P and I tossed something on the ground without thinking.  Joey got all over me.  "How about a little respect, bro?"  He didn’t humiliate me, but didn’t let it slide either.  Since that day, I’ve been aware about littering (not that I didn’t know it was a lousy thing to do before that).  So much so that now I’m like one of those reformed smokers, vigilant, judgemental.  I give people the evil eye when I see them blatantly throw their crap on the floor, although I am careful exactly who I stare at and for how long. 

But I’ve become a righteous prig.  What can you do?  Mostly, if I’m really bothered, I just walk over and pick up whatever has just been dumped and, without saying a word, or even looking at the offender, place it in a garbage can myself.  If I’m with a friend, I give them the ol’ Joey La P treatment.  "Yo, how about a little respect?"

Here’s the routine…

Fans have a few days to select the final player for the AL and NL All Star squads.  Our own Jason Giambi is on the AL ballot and is a fine cherce, although I don’t know that I’d vote for him over Jermaine Dye or that kid playing third for the Rays.