"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice

High Risk, Low Reward?

Are the Boston Red Sox filling out their roster or casting a Celebrity Rehab spin-off focused on sports injuries?
. . .
It could be that they’re just being smart. Those four players are each signed to incentive-laden one-year contracts that will cost the Red Sox a base total of $12.2 million, or $4.25 million less than the Yankees will pay the injury-prone A.J. Burnett in the first year of his five-year contract (or, to turn the tables on Boston, just $200,000 more than they’ll pay the rapidly-aging Mike Lowell in the second year of his three-year contract).

Read the rest of my take on the Sox recent spate of roster moves (as well as the Trevor Hoffman-to-Milwaukee deal) on SI.com.

Tags:  John Smoltz  Red Sox

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21 comments

1 Bum Rush   ~  Jan 9, 2009 1:54 pm

Seems like the Sox could have done better for the same money by signing Giambi and Hoffman (move Masterson to the rotation). There still would have been enough left over to sign Baldelli and Pavano :).

Honestly, if Baldelli can't play the field ever, then he's not worth the roster spot (not with a career .325 OBP). If he can play the field once a week, then he had value to the Yankees too.

2 Cliff Corcoran   ~  Jan 9, 2009 2:01 pm

Where were they going to play Giambi? First base? In place of the Gold Glove Youkilis, who would be forced out of position to third? Maybe for another Gold Glover like Teixeira, but not for Giambi.

Also, they don't need a closer, and Hoffman wouldn't have been one had they signed him, so he never would have signed (he wants to reach 600 saves). In fact, they don't need much of anything, but these guys have the low base salaries and the upside to work as good insurance without causing too much roster/payroll crunch.

Baldelli can play the field, but infrequently, and likely not CF anymore.

3 williamnyy23   ~  Jan 9, 2009 2:09 pm

I am not sure why everything always seems to come back to AJ Burnett, but if you are going to call him injury prone than Smoltz, Penny and Baldelli are the walking wounded. From what I can gather, Penny and Smoltz are guaranteed a combined $10.5mn with another $8mn in roster bonues (as well as some other performance bonuses). In other words, neither has to pitch well to max out...they just need to stay "healthy". As a result, Boston could wind up shelling out $18.5mn for a two-headed 5th starter.

Of course, Smoltz is 42 and coming off extensive repairs of his rotator cuff AND labrum. He had the surgery in June 2008, so I can't imagine how he'd be able to return in anything less than year. In fact, I think it would be remarkable if he makes it back before the ASG. Penny is probably a safer bet to be healthy, but his peripherals do not give one much reason to think he'll hold up in the AL East.

4 williamnyy23   ~  Jan 9, 2009 2:15 pm

Also on Baldelli, I've read a number of articles state he played well down the stretch, but his OPS was just around .600 for the month of September. He also only had 4 hits in the post season, although two were HRs (one of off Paul Byrd in garbage time).

On Smoltz, several sources I have found described the damage to his shoulder as extensive. While elbow surgeries have become quite routine for pitchers (TJ can actually be a blessing), opening the shoulder is still a major risk. The Red Sox have the money, so why not roll the dice. I am not sure that makes it such a smart move though...just because you can afford the loss doesn't make it wise to hit on 20.

5 Bum Rush   ~  Jan 9, 2009 2:18 pm

@ 2

Giambi as very cheap, but productive, insurance for Lowell and Ortiz. Heck, he could have been used to keep both fresh and to bring them back slowly.

You might be right on Hoffman. But Masterson is a far better pitcher than Penny. Keeping him the pen is an absolute waste.

Sorry, but I would have risked $1 million that Baldelli could play 20 - 40 games in CF and some starts at DH. If not, no big loss. They would have been back to where they are right now.

One thing you forgot on Smoltz: The Braves only offered $3 million and they would seem to know his medical report better than any one. Plus, they had sentimental reason for re-signing him. I wouldn't be shocked if he's never the same.

6 Cliff Corcoran   ~  Jan 9, 2009 3:10 pm

William, Baldelli hit .263/.344/.475 in Aug and Sept. combined, the OBP and SLG there are both better than his career rates. I think that's enough to say he "hit well over the last two months of the season."

Also, I described the wear and tear on Smoltz shoulder as "significant," (I think the difference between that and "extensive" is hair-splitting), and say that he won't return until after his May birthday. The entire hook of the article is that these guys are indeed the walking wounded. You might disagree with my painting these signings in a collectively positive light, but it seems like you're reading past what I actually say because of that.

And I think it's smart to do it if you can afford it because they're not betting the team on these guys. They would have been fine had they entered the season without them (save Bard, they did need a catcher), so in that sense the only risk is the relatively small financial commitment. Otherwise, they're essentially extra bonus players. If they pan out, great, if not, they didn't really need them to begin with.

7 caleb   ~  Jan 9, 2009 3:12 pm

Am I the only one thats being driven crazy by all of this Rocco Baldelli stuff? I have never seen so much hype for a 5th outfielder ever! He has never been a great major league player even when supposedly healthy.

Last year he started 3 games in the field! He had about the same production per at bat as CC Sabathia did. He has played a smaller percentage of games in the last few years than Carl Pavano!

Maybe if Pavano hat a mitochondrial disorder instead of Tommy John surgery we could see a big press conference at Jacobs field hailing the conquering hero with everyone crying. they could even give him Robbie Alomar's old number.

Maybe we should have a big event with the same fanfare for the Angel Berroa signing. Oh no wait, he didnt have "channelopathy", he just has a case of "I suck". Well he will probably have the same impact as Rocco does.

Sorry for the rant I just cant stand seeing all these red sox fans and media guys flipping out over signing this guy to a minimum contract.

On a positive note though, if Ortiz gets hurt and Rocco DH's then the Sox can officially have no latin or black players start any games!!!

Even if Ortiz stays healthy, only once every 5 days (when Matsuzaka starts) will the Red Sox start a player between the lines that isnt a GWG (gritty white guy). Red Sox fans should be so proud...

8 Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO   ~  Jan 9, 2009 3:13 pm

side topic: watching the MLB Network now, enjoying the Hot Stove chat and the upcoming schedule of "famous games" looks great..wish I could get it back in Nippon...

second side note: there was an ad for Tampa Spring Training Yankee tix...with some footage of Kei Igawa giving up a line-drive gap double to some scrub in a exhibition game..is that the way to sell spring tickets, "come see Kei Igawa!"??

9 sonyahennystutu   ~  Jan 9, 2009 4:07 pm

[7] Totally agreed. Not even a small tear shed by me that we didn't sign Baldelli. I mean, I'm glad the guy isn't terminal, but jeez... You'd think we let Joe D sign with the Sox the way some people are reacting here.

HE'S NOT WORTH THE MILLION+ it would've taken us to get him to sign here over Boston.

If you disagree, let's look back on the season in 10 months...

10 Raf   ~  Jan 9, 2009 4:30 pm

is that the way to sell spring tickets, “come see Kei Igawa!”??

Well, he *WAS* the Topps 2008 pitcher of the year :D

11 williamnyy23   ~  Jan 9, 2009 4:33 pm

[6] It's misleading though because he aboslutely raked in August when he was fresh off his rehab, but then slid significantly in September. Considering we are dealing with a player who has suffered from fatigue, I think his rapid decline as his playing time accumulated is very significant.

I apologize for not catching your use of "significant". I guess I was distracted by the following mentions of "wasn't unusual for a pitcher who had thrown as many innings as Smoltz" (which I guess is like saying he doesn't drink that much for an alcoholic) and "That's somewhat encouraging". I am not a doctor, but is seems to me as if 1 year of recovery from extensive rotator cuff and labrum surgery would be wishful thinking for a young man, not to mention a 42-year old. For that reason, I look at a May return has being highly unlikely.

I also disagree with the notion that they only had a "small financial commitment". Not only do Badelli/Smoltz/Penny put them on the hook for $11mn guaranteed, but many of the bonuses are simple roster incentives. When you consider the Red Sox bowed out of the Teixeira sweepstakes over that same amount of money (but over 8 years), I am not sure you can label it an insignificant amount.

12 williamnyy23   ~  Jan 9, 2009 4:39 pm

[7] I am usually the last person to notice racial makeups of teams, not to mention bring them into a discussion, but the Red Sox ethnic makeup is a little odd. I heard one person refer to the team as Aryan Nation (instead of Red Sox Nation), which I am ashamed to say made me chuckle.

13 Cliff Corcoran   ~  Jan 9, 2009 5:13 pm

Just to clarify the Red Sox's racial makeup, Jacoby Ellsbury is Native American. Of course, Native Americans did play in the major leagues with some frequency prior to Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier (though they were all demeaningly referred to as "Chief").

14 caleb   ~  Jan 9, 2009 5:19 pm

[12] Yeah, Ken Rosenthal wrote a good column about it a few months back.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8670984/Will-non-white-free-agents-shun-the-Sox

I definitely dont think they are actively seeking to bleach out their roster but its astonishing how consistent it is.

Try and find one rumor about the Sox acquiring a Latin or black player. It never happens! But see how many times they are linked to Eric Byrnes, Eric Hinske or Willie bloomquist. Im waiting for the Darin Erstad spring training invite.

and its really the one good piece of ammunition I have when talking to my Red Sox fan "friends" these days. I can guarantee you the starting catcher for the Red Sox next year wont be a Molina brother or a Hernandez. Brian Schneider or Greg Zaun c'mon down!

I am actually hoping they trade for Saltalamacchia. That guy married his high school teacher!!! He wont survive one series of heckling at the Stadium...

15 Yankster   ~  Jan 9, 2009 5:33 pm

Mike Lowell is born in Puerto Rico and of Cuban descent. I always thought he had some black, but that's because I'm from the Caribbean, and we come in a lot of shades, and spend all of elementary school splitting hairs about it. I had a Sheffield post a while back that got at that.

I think it's tricky to get too worked up about Boston and race when it could be a culture issue i.e. race is an effect rather than a cause. That's a can of worms, but that's my perspective.

16 PJ   ~  Jan 9, 2009 6:05 pm

Bah! The Red Sox are merely grasping at straws in the blind hope that one of their bargain basement walking wounded deals will equal lightning in a bottle during the season. Sometimes it works, and most other times, not so much. The Yankees have done that in the past as well. It's all they can do these days in the free agent market since John Henry is still under the false pretense that no player deserves to make more than $20M per year. He was correct in that he will not attempt to financially compete with the Yankees for the best free agents from year to year in the foreseeable future because of their new stadium and YES Network revenues, as well as their new revenue sources from their concessions franchise. Henry can easily afford to get those players, but he's too cheap, and always has been, even during his Marlin days.

That is why the Red Sox ownership can't be taken seriously. They can’t even stick to their traditional uniforms without coming up with some typically lame corporate loser cash grab as the "hanging sox". Sure Henry! Let's bring back those great days of yesteryear in 1931 when we had The Great Depression, Prohibition, Child Labor, Racial Inequality, and the Red Sox in sixth place! The bottom line is they don't want the best players available in the free agent market year after year to fill glaring holes or not so glaring ones. They want the best players available who will work for the least amount of money year after year. That's a huge difference. They actually think being a Red Sox player means something and that they deserve value for allowing a player into their fold! Well I suppose it does to a certain extent, you know the way being a Dodger, Cardinal, Red, Pirate, or an Athletic means something. In our lifetimes however, it will never mean the same as becoming a Yankee, no matter how much they believe or convince their fanbase of the contrary.

I cannot imagine the Yankees treating their current captain the way the Red Sox are treating theirs. Bernie Williams at least was offered a Spring Training invitation at the end of his career! They sign other old and in some cases even injured players, but still show no “love” for Varitek? I'm not surprised at all. They have treated better players much worse since taking over. Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciapara, Derek Lowe, and Pedro Martinez come to mind from that category. It will be very interesting to find out how much "love" they are willing to give to Youkilis and Papelbon. Apparently, AL MVP's don't carry the same weight as injured DH types within their organization literally, figuratively, and financially. From John Henry, that's no surprise either.

Lucchino was correct. The Red Sox "certainly are not" the Yankees. And they never will be... not even close. They should try passing the A's on the list of champions first before trying to claim equal billing with the Yankees!

17 Bum Rush   ~  Jan 9, 2009 6:11 pm

PJ - go post that over at Yanks fan Sox fan and makes some new friends. But you might want to correct that AL MVP line. They just gave him a nice extension.

18 OldYanksFan   ~  Jan 9, 2009 6:38 pm

This is a cut and paste from commenter 'Evan' over at WW. I thought it was an excellent post oh the X-Man v. Swisher who-to-trade debate.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Evan3457 on January 9th, 2009 1:47 am

There are some other considerations here…

1) Swisher is 2 years younger.

2) Swisher is coming off the terrible year; Nady is coming off the career year. Plexiglass priniciple suggests they’ll both swing in the other direction this year. If their triple-crown numbers are close, Swisher is the better hitter, because…

3) Swisher draws more walks, and is on base more. Even last year, hitting .219, his OBP was higher than Nady’s was for the Yanks in the NL. Career-wise, it’s 20 points higher, even though Nady’s lifetime BAVG is 36 points higher. Nady has seen 3.62 P/PA in his career, and 3.65 last season. Swisher has seen 4.25 P/PA in his career, and 4.52 last year (which might have been the problem; he may have been taking too many pitches and falling behind too much).

4. Nady has a higher GIDP rate than Swisher, about 25% higher, probably because…

5. He’s right-handed and Swisher is a switch-hitter. (Swisher hits for a better AVG left-handed and draws more BB, but has more power right-handed.)

6. Nady in right field the past three seasons: -5, +1, and -4 for a total of -8 over about 780 innings per year, good enough for 23rd, 19th, and 22nd among regular rightfielders, according to BIS +/- ratings. Swisher was +1 in 650 nnings in LF in 2006, good enough for 21st, and +5 last year in 415 innings in right field, good enough for 14th. Combining their LF and RF numbers, Swisher is + 9 in 1326 innings (not quite a full season) over the last 3 years, and Nady is -8 in 2832 innings (about 2 full seasons) in LF and RF over the same 3 years.

UZR has Swisher at +20.5 runs in 265 defensive games in LF and RF combined for his career, or about +18.6 runs per 150 games. UZR has Nady figured at -0.7 runs in 440 career games in left and right, basically an average flank outfielder.

====================================
I don’t want to make too much out of these points. They are significant but not enormous, even in the aggregate.

But they all point in the same direction, and against them, you have only two points; 1) the fact that Swisher had a terrible year last year, and Nady had a good one, and maybe that shows that Swisher might be finished early, and maybe Nady just figured things out and is finally fulfilling his potential as a 2nd round draft choice, and 2) keeping Swisher would commit the Yanks to two more seasons and another $17 million, unless they can trade him after this season.

With the two players fairly close, I’ll take the aggregate of all the small advantages Swisher brings. Nady should also be easier to trade, especially to the NL.

19 PJ   ~  Jan 9, 2009 7:35 pm

BM - No thanks! The further I can stay away from RSN the better.

If you don't think $40.5M over six years for an everyday player who wins a league MVP is indicative of cheap ownership in this players' market, I don't know what else to say. Those monies are certainly closer to Nick Swisher's numbers than A-Rod's! Ortiz makes almost twice that of Pedroia's new annual salary on average ($13M versus $6.75M although the annual breakdowns are different) and that was the point I was trying to make. Ortiz signed an extension for $52M over four years in '06 after finishing second in the previous year's MVP voting. Maybe Pedroia should have finished second in the MVP voting too, the way Ortiz did before he got his extension.

I'm just trying to point out the glaring inconsistencies within the Red Sox and what they pay their players. They continue to want teams who can contend, but don't want to pay for them. Sound familiar? As in the other 28 remaining teams? At least it does to me. The only difference with the Red Sox is while they are courting free agents, they are the best players ever. If they don't sign with them, they suddenly become overpriced bums and the scorned ownership pouts in the press and to their fanbase about how unfair it was being outbid for them. Other teams really don't do that for the most part, at least not as often. Incentive laden deals to 40 year old recovering or injured players are a sign of desperation and the acknowledgment that they are not satisfied with their product heading into Spring Training or even towards the All Star Break (see also the Yankees' last contract with Roger Clemens among others). Maybe they should also give an incentive-laden deal to Frank Thomas in the event Lowell or Ortiz get hurt again. Or maybe their farm system isn't really what they think it is or what they let RSN think it is. You know, enough to keep those sellouts at The Fens coming.

The bottom line is after failing miserably to sign the better available players in this offseason's free agent market, the Red Sox are settling for the crumbs, and paying crumbs as well! It's damage control for placating their livid RSN, and nothing more.

20 Rich   ~  Jan 9, 2009 8:18 pm

[15] "I cannot imagine the Yankees treating their current captain the way the Red Sox are treating theirs."

I actually admire the Sox sentiment-free approach. One reason the Yankees gave Posada a four year contract, reportedly ignoring Cashman's understandable objections, was sentiment.

How much longer will they allow Jeter to play SS? How many years and at what AAV will they give him when his contract expires in two years if his OPS+ remains at or around his 2008 level of 102, or even significantly below his career mark of 120?

I would prefer that the Yankees make a cold-hearted assessment, not one based on past services rendered, and at the very least, if he hasn't already shifted to the OF, that they condition a new contract on such a move.

21 Chyll Will   ~  Jan 9, 2009 9:38 pm

Dammit, I miss all the good stuff! Rayshell, man, rayshell >;)

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