Posada's x-ray's negative...so thats a good thing

gonna be a hot one. Low to mid 90's in Anaheim, which will feel more like 100 when you factor in Shelley Duncan's ferocity.

Is this lineup serious? Melky, Gardner, Hairston AND Duncan all in the same lineup...before an off day? Girardi is awful. I actually miss Torre now. At least his house money lineups came after the team won two games in a series...not one.

[3] torre would never rest his most important/fragile players the day after clinching a playoff spot and basically home field throughout the playoffs. because he knows mets fans!!

[3] there are 5 words i never thought i would hear :}

according to petey swisher and po fouled ball off their leg and toe repsectively

[3] I really don't have a problem with it.

Posada had to have his x-ray's, so he's obviously a no-go for today. Swisher banged one off his knee last night, but could PH.

as for A-Rod, you could probably go either way, but you have a chance here to give him 2 days off before the Boston series...its not outlandish to give it to him.

[3] My only problem is Hairston hitting second. Why not lead off Gardy and hit Jeter second? Or just hit Cano second -- he is hitting over .300, after all?

[3] Can you at least wait until the game starts before you start to panic? :)

I have a question.
Assuming you have to give each player a fixed number of days off (maybe different numbers for different players), is it better to give them different days off, or to bunch up and give them the same day off (as Girardi has done today)?
This is not obvious to me. Each substitute of an inferior player for a superior one decreases the team's chance of winning. If that decrease is itself fixed (that is, if subbing Hairston for A-Rod drops the winning chance by 3.5% or something), then it doesn't matter whether you bunch them or spread them out.

My hunch here is that it doesn't matter much. My secondary hunch is that for a very good team, it's slightly better to spread them out, while for a bad team it's slightly better to bunch them.

Why is Damon out of the line-up? Is it his numbers against Kazmir?

If Torre were managing today, the starting line-up might (or not) have been different, but I can assure you, by the time he started managing the pen, you would be agonizing. Paul Quantrill anyone?

[9] i agree with your secondary hunch. but if you only have 2 or 3 good hitters in your lineup and each has to be rested from time to time, it might be best to bunch up. of course it would depend on what kind of hitters they are, the opposing pitcher, etc.

[11] Why (bunch up)?
Oh, because they have synchronicity -- esp. if, say, one of them is your best OBP guy and the other your best SLG guy. Yep, that's right.

This makes me want to use the Lineup Analysis Tool on today's bunch... back shortly.

[11]

You mean like the 2009 Mets?

Here's what David Pinto's lineup analysis tool says. (I used career numbers for Duncan because his sample size this year is minuscule.)

Jeter
Teixeira
Hairston
Cano
Matsui
Duncan
Cabrera
Molina
Gardner

Weird.
Hairston slugs better than I thought (.409), but I still can't see why he's in the 3 hole. It's 'robust', too -- more than half of the top thirty run-producing lineups have Hairston batting third.

Other comments:
As you might expect, this bunch of guys is much worse than our usual bunch -- a whole run less in expected runnage.
As usual, fiddling with the lineup doesn't produce much variance; e.g. the actual lineup is only .15 runs worse than the "ideal" one.

You can check out the results here.

I'm forced to listen to John and Suzyn today. I'm looking to you to tell me the truth.

[14] Well, I think that tells you all you need to know about the utter stupidity of the David Pinto lineup analysis tool.

that 2-2 pitch was down the middle

[13] Ouch. That wasn't rest, that was a medically-induced coma...

[16] Hm, no, I would have to disagree with you there. Obviously, it defies conventional wisdom, but it's pretty well known that lineup optimization does defy conventional wisdom.

I posted a bit about this a few days ago so I won't go over it again, but I do think there's one problem with the lineup tool. I checked with Pinto who agreed, but he added that his algorithm is actually very accurate in predicting runs-scored.

[16] Given that it has Molina batting 8th, probably not.

[15] I repeat [18]...

[19] what's the one problem you see? even if you repeat yourself it's more interesting than debating whether girardi is going to sabotage his 100 win team.

[15] i'm listening to Dave Weckl !!! : )

[20] You mean, instead of ninth? Apparently it actually does make sense to treat your #9 batter as a kind of "second leadoff". Doesn't some NL manager do this occasionally?

[21] LOL

Sterling said that Bobby Abreu made two plays in RF. Turns out it was Gary Matthew Jr. it's going to be a long afternoon.

AJ....please!!!

[22] Oh, okay, briefly:

The algorithm treats each slot independently. So, it assumes that adding 50 points of SLG in the clean-up spot adds a certain number of expected runs, no matter how good at getting on base the guys in the 1, 2, and 3 slots are. This is patently unrealistic, and when you're trying to *optimize* a lineup I'd expect it would be a significant problem.
Clear? (That is, clear what I think the problem is?)

[24] it seems sensible to me. the difference between at bats per game is so minimal that it seems more important to have your better hitter hitting closer to the other good hitters. it doesn't really make sense to load up the front of the lineup with all your best hitting and then let your worst hitter hit right before it most of the time.

[4] Right, I forgot. It's over. Why even bother to play the games. That's mindset screams winning.

[8] It's not panic...it's pointing out foolishness before it becomes a second guess.

[26] yes. that's what i was wondering when i quickly looked at your link- whether it knows enough to treat it as a lineup or as just a listing of players.

[29] you...second guess?? surely you jest, good sir!

Hey gang. Yes, the lineup is... less than ideal. But on the other hand, if they manage to win today, think what a confidence boost THAT would be.

[31] Never...if I don't first guess, I don't criticize after the fact.

[32] that's a joke, but the flip side is that losing again in anaheim with all your best players in might be a little depressing after last night. not that i think that would matter, and if the game was actually important you'd have to play them.

[24] tlr does it.

[26] so it basically runs independent probabilities
i think there is another problem too but i need to think of how to articulate it

[33] hey didn't you want girardi as much as anyone? second-guesser!!

[32] It couldn't be any worse than what they usually do at that stadium. Maybe Hairston and Duncan are immune to the Angels' curse.

[36] Actually, I posted that the Yankees should have had a much more lengthy interview process, but did think he would be a refreshing change based on his YES work. I, like the Yankees, couldn't have been more wrong.

[30] Well, I'm not sure what you mean. It has for each lineup position a particular coefficient for SLG and a particular coefficient for OBP. (The point of developing the algorithm was to try to find out which of these was more important and how much, and in the course of the investigation the researchers realized that of course, this would probably depend on where the guy was batting in the lineup.) But the coefficients are fixed and do not change depending on who else is batting.

[35] Yes, or really not probabilities at all, just "run producing" values.

[39] that is what i mean. it can list players based on their numbers but can't adjust to the entire lineup altogether. but maybe it just doesn't consider enough stats.

[39] thanks - probabilities wasn't the right word, but i couldn't think of how to phrase it

[40] If you come up with a good way to take the "interaction" into account, let me know. Pinto might be interested.
I guess the problem is that his current one is based on an algorithm that's been tested and found to give good predictions of total runs (for a season), so until someone does quite a bit of work with a new idea it won't make sense to replace it.

I thought Shelley was going to go right through the wall.

[42] well i mean i definitely think there are other factors that need to go into a determination of batting order. some are stats like stolen bases, batting average and strikeouts, and some are just qualities like speed. if a model could include all the important factors, then it should be able to put each player in the most appropriate slot, and that itself would account for how they interact with one another, right?

[24] I'm just addressing a.O idea "about the utter stupidity of the David Pinto lineup analysis tool."

Burnett K's the side.

Definitely right about SB and stuff like that. The algorithm ignores those things.

But the whole point of the analysis is to figure out which is the most appropriate slot for each batter. And the problem is that you just can't do that in the "independent" way, no matter how much individual data you put it. You have to have some part of the algorithm look at the interactions among the different guys in the lineup.
Ideally you want to run a huge number of simulations with each possible lineup. But to do this for thousands of different lineups (to find the best one) requires enormous computing power, unrealistic. Some people have done it, but for the online tool it's not feasible.

[45] Yeah, after I hit SEND I realized that was probably what you meant.

Jesus H Christ that dude can fly.

[48] why hasn't he flown to 3rd yet?! ; )

[47] right, but it should be pretty close because it's slotting each into the position it thinks is best, and has to consider them all for each slot. so the more relevant stats you put in, the closer it should be. but then you have to figure out what is ideal for each slot considering all those factors.

[47] I can see ignoring SB; I don't think there's a correlation between SB & runs scored.

Ideally you want to run a huge number of simulations with each possible lineup. But to do this for thousands of different lineups (to find the best one) requires enormous computing power, unrealistic.

Chances are it would just spit out '42'

:D

Guess Gardner couldn't read Kazmir's move?

[50] ok but don't you think that stolen bases must make a difference in determining where a hitter should bat?

51

I see, like doing successive approximations. Yes, that should probably improve the optimization.

I have to go. Go Yanks!

[51] nice.

[53] It might, but probably not much. It seems to me that if a guy is really good at SB, the he will be so no matter where he bats. Also, when he steals, subsequent batters wherever in the lineup will benefit from him standing on 2B or 3B.

I guess one could argue that it is more worth it for high SB guys to bat nearer the bottom of the lineup, so he can "create" runs at the bottom of the order. But if he is a high OBP guy, you would rather have him batter at the top of the lineup.

Why did Tex try to go home? I like the aggressive play (I think), but not the result.

[58] Didn't Thomson send him? I didn't really look closely at the replay.

[53] SB's are part of it. Is my SB guy a high OBP guy? Is he a high SLG guy? High BA? Otis Nixon, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson stole a lot of bases, but each batted different places in the order.

is there a better phrase than "in play run(s)" to see on the computer (of course only when the yanks are batting)?

[58] Don't know, stuck "watching" Yahoo!'s box score updates (can't get Gameday to load up for some reason . . .) - I was hoping one of you folks in front of the TV could tell me!

As for this crappy "house money lineup" - the Yanks are doomed, doomed I tell you! /sarcasm

[61] Beast Commercial?

[62] He broke back to 2B because he thought the 3B would catch the ball, but I didn't notice when he rounded the back whether he was sent or when on his own.

61 "Your Company announces 3 for 1 stock split plus $10 dividend per share post split."

Just saying. Runs are nice too.

65 should say "Yankee runs are nice too."

[63] ah yes, beast commercial - that is quite a phrase
i am glad you appreciate it as much as i do

BTW Pete Abe says Thompson sent him, and he was right even if it didn't work out.

[65] yeah i could see that being nice too - you never see that in the types of places i work though :~

[68] i am definitely willing to give thomson the benefit of the doubt

[57] [60] stolen bases are just one factor. if a guy is good at stealing bases, it might be best for him to bat in front of good contact hitters who can drive him in from 2nd. i doubt it would be best for him to steal in front of bad hitters, since he can't really steal home.

is anyone else stuck on some commercial for the last 10 minutes?

[64] Thank you! I guess sometimes the Score Truck stalls.

Burentt K's the side for second time today.

[70] Ah, but one could argue that you *don't* want to steal in front of good hitters for fear of taking the bat out their hands. Meanwhile, stealing in front of bad hitters might lead to situations where you can score without a hit. Also, you would not want to put your speed guy behind a high OBP guy, since the latter will "clog the bases" with walks.

Overall, I suspect that speed is far less important than OBP and SLG, though it surely must factor in somehow.

I'd really like for Jeter to finish the year with an OBP above 400.

That's not going to help, but he's on.

[70] That's my point, that stolen bases are just one factor.

Wow, so great to see the split squad beating Kazmir. Girardi is a genius.

Can't wait for the Yanks to clinch this weekend.

Just home to see 3-0 score. Sweet. Roll on AJ. (Though I can't figure why Scioscia is mailing it in when his team still has a chance for home field advantage) : O

79 That chance was a whopping 7-8% chance. Wasn't going to happen after last night's loss.

F$%& You! CHOAD!

Don't look now, but here come the Halos...

Only 1 run? That'll work...

Cano made a real nice play. To his left no less.
[80] Oh I know. I was only kidding. I try to stay off the panic train. Too much stress. : )
3-1 beats 3-2.

[84] Yep. The Panic Train and Score Train definitely take you in opposite directions.

[85] I prefer the dining car on the Score Train, to that on the Panic Train - the food and drink are much more satisfying.

[85] Not to mention they're alway running late b/c the conductors are constantly getting fired.

Hi. I'm back.
Excellent Truckin' without me. (I was John&Suzyning at the time.)

Wow, Kaz has thrown 112 pitches. (I was begging John to check and tell me, but he didn't.) He must be done, no?

That was Swisheresque by Duncan :-(

Sarge Jr: .245, (.330/.352)

WTF AJ?

[90] Ah, that explains it then

0-2 bombs are anti-good. AAAA call-ups in the right field sun are also not so pretty.

Does anyone know whether Freddy Guzman is a good OF? If he is, what about using him as a Defensive Replacement?

[94] If that's the case, that may come in the next couple of innings.

5.2 is not getting the job done. Good for Girardi pulling him. Same problem as last night. Who should pitch now?

90 I just hope Shelley actually hurt LALA's field when he landed on it.

Hey all... I've got my students writing essays, so I thought I'd check how things are going. For anyone watching, was Burnett really as dominant as the stat line suggests?

If CHOAD doesn't come through here I am going to have to find a hat to eat.

Marte only throws 91?

Was Burnett rattled on that walk to Napoli? Out of gas? 101 pitches seem a bit short.

I like seeing Marte in this high stress outing. We'll see if he really is ready for the PS.

Just once I'd like to see Rivera in this type of situation.

Hats. mmmmmmmmm................

[98] He really was excellent for the part I saw, yes. Oddly he often got behind and then came back to get batters. When he got ahead, he was dominant.

[99] Catch this derby...

[101] My hunch here is that Girardi thought, "Chone Figgins vs. AJ, not a good idea..." (Chone was 3-for-3, in case you hadn't noticed.)

Was that hit hard or was it a routine out?

[103] If he pitches for another decade, who knows!?

Now, this cries out for a PH, no? I guess Molina's arm is too valuable.

[103] Wow, you're right, that's a 2.9 leverage situation! I wouldn't have guessed that. (I dare to mention this because William isn't around...)

108 It's a possibility. I think his location and movement are much more important than his speed.

[103] I agree. It's too bad that managers forgot how to do that sometime in the 1980s.

[100] Yes, that's about right, Marte sits low 90's.

[112] That was before MLB noticed that the best relief pitcher is the closer. Now we understand this simple fact and it has simplified many complex situations into simple pie.

Who drives the score truck? Can you tell them to make a delivery in Anaheim, now?

Aha, they had to save the PH for Hairston, who apparently is having a stroke or something.

Oy. THey're taking Hairston out of his ab due to some injury. Hand or wrist maybe. Here comes Pena.

How many pitches was AJ at? Seemed like a quick hook kind of.

I decided I love Burnett. It's just such a wacky ride with him, you never know what's going to happen, except that it could be an extreme case, whatever the outcome.

[114] Hmmmmm...I like simple pie.

[116] Yes, Joe was saving the awesome power of Pena.

[118] He was at 101 pitches

[120]

I would prefer Panda Power (Pablo Sandoval)

[118] He's like the little girl with the curl. (ducking AND running)

[118] See [106].

Wow ... Michael Kay pulling out the Eartha Kitt "Catwoman" reference ... she was only Catwoman for 2 episodes of "Batman" (Julie Newmar was the usual portrayer)

What happened to Hairston?

Impressive...Peña was late on a hanging breaking ball.

Interesting, no bunt...

[126] Something with his hand, it wasn't clear. Maybe the wrapped up wrist.

[129] That's potentially a big loss. A hand injury isn't going to heal quickly...

[128] Ah, didn't see the 1 out...

[131] I'd have had Jeet running with Pena at bat...

[130] I'm not too sure about that. The UI position should be covered with Peña

[133] Yep. And with a 4th OF, probably not a big deal. But did Pena learn to play OF at Scranton well enough to play in a pinch?

I would like to see Marte attain success. That's a start. : )

Wow.
I like out DP combo very much. I don't think they have high stat-y ratings on it, but they just look damn good.

[133] Plus, they will carry only 10 or 11 pitchers on the PS roster, so there is less pressure to carry a single BU who needs to play every position.

That's our Bobby.

It will be nice when Cokey gets over his tummy ache.

[134] OF is covered; Damon, Swisher, Gardner and Melky are the main guys, and pick one of Guzman or Hinske if they decide they want 5 OF'ers.

Wow, if Girardi had another month I'd almost believe he could make something of Marte. Still, probably smart to carry him.

[139] Miracle cure!

Aha. I guess the told Cokey to slam the Pepto and get warmed up.

Oh, ffs.

Please tell me Hughes is ready to come in one out shy of the EIGHTH INNING.

Atta boy Albie. D'oh! Why the FUCK can't this team beat the Red Sox? (The Angels that is) Bastards.

I mean, can't Hughes and Mo get seven outs between them?

[144] I suspect that 37 pitches yesterday = no Hughes today.

I hope this isn't Diet Coke ...

[144] Maybe the idea is to have Kendrick bat from his weaker side.

Nah.

[147] OUCH!

For once a legitimate excuse.

By "Kendrick" I meant "Kendry".

Whoa. Kennedy is warming.

[148] Flat Coke?

[151] Is Ian Kennedy on this team?

Classic Coke!

Whew!

Guess IPK gets the 8th?

[153] Indeed. Seeing him in the 8th would be something. Especially if he can hold 'em. I forgot what the hell the looks like on the bump.

Girardi will try to steal an out or two with Coke.

I suppose we see Guzman in the OF? I don't think Hinske out there is a good idea.

[159] Right. I know he can run, but how good an OF is Guzman?

[159] Oh, good call! Were you thinking about the pinch runner too? Or just prescient?

Let's see what you got Freddy. Does he have any sb's yet with the Yanks?

[160] I asked that earlier. Nobody seems to know.

The heat is on now!

Wow. You just can't predict baseball.

I didn't even know what Freddy G looked like. I like his look. It's kind of scary, intense. Sort of the Mariano of base runners.

Oh, god. Napoli has some flaws.

Hell, I'd let him try for 3rd.

I LOVE watching the Yanks play this game against the Angels. LOVE IT.

[165] John said it in about the third inning. He went on at some length explaining it. I can't quite remember what set him off. Oh, it was Shelley's single when Teix was thrown out at home.

Time for a delivery.

[168] Failing to get home a man on 2nd with less than 2 outs. : (

Oooh, the Melk Truck tried to deliver. Almost.

Who will it be...Cokey? IPK? Mo for two innings?

Hard to believe you let IPK pitch here.

[173] Nah, Mo won't pitch today. I think Coke comes out too, with the righties due up. My guess is IPK.

[174] Kinda sends a message to Joba, no? "Hey kid, get your act together, because we could always carry IPK instead of you. Look, I have no trouble using him in the 8th inning."

[175] Give that man a prize!

So, does IPK finish the game?

it's total bullshit (and against the rules) that umpires let you go to 1st for leaning into a pitch

IPK sitting at 93.

How many pitches did Mo throw last night?

It's strange watching both managers employ so many players---using the extended rosters---and yet avoid using their best players even to PH.

[169] This isn't football, or basketball, where the better team wins! This is *baseball!*

Suzyn, you just can't predict baseball.

3-2 in the 8th..this is too close to wake up to..anyone want to kindly recap A) the game & B) tongh'ts wacky wild game thread? 180+ a bit skimpy compared to yesterday...

Damnit CHOAD. I have to get out my hat (derby) again.

Admiral ErickAybar "Snoop". I don't like you either. : / C'mon Ian!

WOW. Good for IPK! He's got to be flying. Why did the booth say he may not pitch after today?

Ich bin ein Anaheimer

WHEW
That was an ugly 1IP 0 ER

Had to do some actual work. Glad to see IPK was used, could've done without the 2 walks but he didn't give up any runs.

I missed that inning. IPK was kind of a thrill, huh? But got out okay. Maybe too much adrenaline?

Pinball!

Degree of difficulty 3.4

Three-fourths of a day off for Alex. Like to see him put another one in the rocks.

Hahaha, Gameday had it reveresed for a second, said Ramiro Pena punch-hit for Alex Rodriguez...I spit up my mueslix in shock..Go Go A-Rod!

Hi Diane.
You were wrong about using Mo back in the ... seventh(?)
This inning is much higher leverage even to start. We're starting at 3.6. If anyone gets on it shoots up.

[194] Oh, so that's the past tense of "pinch-hit"! I always wondered.

And the leverage is 5.4 now.

Girardi's a psycho putting Kennedy in there.

[198] Ian does call him "Mother" so it's all good. : ) Oohhhh, chin music from Mo.

Think hard about that one, Torii. Keep thinking...