A.J.’s Turn
Posted on Oct 9, 2009 4:07 pm
By Cliff Corcoran
Game One of this ALDS couldn’t have gone much better for the Yankees. CC Sabathia was sharp, every starter but Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano got a hit, including Alex Rodriguez who had a pair of RBI singles, the key end-game relievers (Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, and the re-purposed Joba Chamberlain) got their postseason spikes dirty with a big lead and a day off to follow, and, most importantly, the Bombers extended their regular season dominance of Minnesota with a 7-2 victory. Yesterday, however, gave the exhausted Twins, who in the 25 hours before the first pitch of Game One had played 12 innings to save their season then flown half way across the country, a much-needed day of rest, and Game Two brings another Yankee starting pitcher with a lot to prove.
I was an outspoken opponent of the five-year, $82.5 million contract the Yankees signed A.J. Burnett to in December. With one of those five regular seasons in the books, Burnett has exceeded my expectations in just one way: he stayed healthy and took every one of his turns throughout the season. That’s no small thing, but the net result of Burnett’s 33 starts wasn’t quite what you’d expect from a $16.5 million pitcher, and there are still four more years in which Burnett could well validate my concerns about his injury history.
The contract doesn’t matter tonight. All that matters is how well Burnett pitches in his first postseason start, which is why Joe Girardi has opted to start Jose Molina behind the plate despite the huge drop in production he represents at the plate compared to Jorge Posada. Opposing batters have hit just .221/.307/.352 against Burnett with Molina behind the plate compared to .270/.353/.421 with Posada receiving him. Supposedly the difference is due in part to Burnett’s lack of confidence in Posada’s ability to block his sharp curve in the dirt, which results in Burnett failing to break the pitch off properly when throwing to Posada. Burnett led the league in wild pitches, and one would assumes a certain percentage of those were pitches Burnett thought Posada should have blocked.
Burnett’s breaking point seemed to come in his August 12 start, when, with Posada catching, he uncorked three wild pitches then refused to talk about the issue after the game, saying bruskly, “I’d rather not talk about the wild pitches.” Up to that game, Posada caught 13 of Burnett’s starts while Molina, Francisco Cervelli, and Kevin Cash caught the other ten, five of them coming when Posada was on the disabled list. After that August 12 start, Posada caught just three more of Burnett’s starts, while Molina caught seven. Burnett didn’t thrown another wild pitch after August 12, but two of the three times he pitched to Posada he was rocked, giving up nine runs in five innings to the Red Sox on August 22, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to the lowly Orioles on September 1. Those were the last two Burnett starts caught by Posada.
That’s why Joe Girardi is sitting a .285/.363/.522 hitter in a playoff game in favor of a man who has hit .217/.273/.298 in 406 at-bats over the last two seasons. I believe Posada himself said it best when he said, in reaction to the news that Molina would be starting, “I just hope we win that game.” Burnett’s need for Molina behind the plate only adds to the pressure he’ll be feeling tonight in his first career postseason start (he was out following Tommy John surgery when his Marlins beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series). The contract may not matter tonight, but Burnett will by trying to live up to it.
As for how he did in the regular season, Burnett’s aggregate line was actually no better than the no-name Twins sophomore he’ll face tonight:
A.J. Burnett: 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 33 GS, 21 QS
Nick Blackburn: 4.03 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB, 33 GS, 19 QS
Those lines are damn similar, with Blackburn holding the edge in the three key rate stats, which just goes to show how overrated Burnett really is. As for the 27-year-old Blackburn, his final 2009 line is almost an exact match for his 2008 rookie campaign, which means the Twins can now expect this sort of production from him. Blackburn’s WHIP is high because he led the league in hits allowed. Burnett’s is high because he led the league in walks with a career-high 97. That is also why A.J.’s K/BB is so low (because of all those walks, Burnett’s WHIP and K/BB this year were his worst since 2003, when he made just four starts).
Of course, Burnett and Blackburn are far from similar pitchers, as their strikeout and walk rates reveal:
Burnett: 8.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
Blackburn: 4.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9
Better all those walks and strikeouts than all those hits, but you’d rather see a pitcher keep his opponents off the bases altogether.
Both pitchers finished the regular seaosn strong. In his last four starts (all with Molina catching), Burnett posted a 1.88 ERA, struck out 28 men in 24 innings, and allowed just one home run. In his last four starts, Blackburn posted a 1.65 ERA and walked just one man in 27 1/3 innings.
Blackburn last faced the Yankees on May 16. He took a 4-3 lead into the eighth inning of that game only to let the Yankees tie it up in that inning (and ultimately win it in extras). Burnett faced the Twins twice this year, both times allowing just two runs in six-plus innings, but walking ten in those 13 frames.
The Twins have made one tweak to their lineup tonight. Jason Kubel is DHing, Denard Span is in right, and Carlos Gomez is in centerfield and batting in place of the team’s no-name DH platoon. Alex suggests this is because the Twins want to run on Burnett, but while A.J. allowed 23 steals on the year, he and his catchers caught 34 percent of attempting basestealers, that compared to a 25 percent league average and Jose Molina and Jorge Posada’s matching (yes, matching) 28 percent throw-out rates.
Since I left them out of my initial preview, here are the ALDS rosters:
Minnesota Twins
2009 Record: 87-78 (.534)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 86-77 (.528)
Manager: Ron Gardenhire
General Manager: Bill Smith
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (93/93)
1B – Michael Cuddyer (R)
2B – Nick Punto (S)
SS – Orlando Cabrera (R)
3B – Matt Tolbert (R)
C – Joe Mauer (L)
RF – Jason Kubel (L)
CF – Denard Span (L)
LF – Delmon Young (R)
DH – Jose Morales (S)/Brendan Harris (R)
Bench:
R – Carlos Gomez (CF)
R – Mike Redmond (C)
S – Alexi Casilla (IF)
R – Brendan Harris (IF)/S – Jose Morales (C)
Rotation:
L – Brian Duensing
R – Nick Blackburn
R – Carl Pavano
R – Scott Baker
Bullpen:
R – Joe Nathan
R – Matt Guerrier
L – Jose Mijares
R – Jesse Crain
L – Francisco Liriano
R – Jon Rauch
L – Ron Mahay
Key injuries:
1B – Justin Morneau (stress fracture in lower back)
3B – Joe Crede (herniated disc in lower back)
RHP – Kevin Slowey (wrist surgery–bone chips)
LHP – Glen Perkins (shoulder tendonitis)
RHP – Boof Bonser (labrum and rotator cuff surgery)
RHP – Pat Neshek (TJ)
Typical Lineup:
L – Denard Span (LF)
R – Orlando Cabrera(SS)
L – Joe Mauer (C)
L – Jason Kubel (DH)
R – Michael Cuddyer (RF)
R – Delmon Young (LF)
S – Jose Morales/R – Brendan Harris (DH)
S – Nick Punto (2B)
* * *
New York Yankees
2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)
Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Yankee Stadium 2.0 (93/93)
1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Melky Cabrera (S)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)
Bench:
L – Brett Gardner (CF)
L – Eric Hinske (4C)
S – Jerry Hairston Jr. (UT)
R – Jose Molina (C)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)
Rotation:
L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
Bullpen:
R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Joba Chamberlain
R – Alfredo Aceves
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Chad Gaudin
Key injuries:
RHP – Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery)
OF – Xavier Nady (TJ)
Typical Lineup:
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Johnny Damon (LF)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Melky Cabrera (CF)
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Alex suggests this is because the Twins want to run on Burnett.
That, and the Twins want to play a couple of defensively sound players in the OF?
iirc, Blackburn was the pitcher who boBBy accidentally hit in the face last year with a line drive. that was scary. i remember boBBy jogging to first base with his head in his hands. thankfully, the pitcher (nick blackburn, methinks), was OK!
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Swisher LF
Cano 2B
Cabrera CF
Molina C
[1] Indeed. Blackburn throws a sinker, but he’s a fly ball pitcher. (and yes, thelarmis, same guy)
BTW, my look at the postseason roster on Sept. 22 pretty much nailed it: dig.
Via PeteAbe errr….well Sam Borden maybe, A-Rod is not likely to need a second surgery. That’s very good news methinks.
[0] Good stuff. I am sick and tired of the Molina/Posada/A.J. talk but I heard something fresh today. For me anyway. Flaherty on The Fat Man’s show said Posada has to know when AJ is throwing either his four seam or two seam fastball. Molina on the other hand doesn’t care b/c he can simply react to either fastball. Meaningful? Who knows. Just new. Let’s go Yanks. Go on with your best bad-ass self tonight there Burnett and match C.C.’s performance. : D
good stuff cliff.
[1] flyball pitcher (as cliff points out [3] combined with gardenhire seeing a dropped ball last night ,perhaps?
[2] that’s the only i can think about when i hear nick blackburn’s name
what’s up with that blackhole batting 9th :}
[4] just saw that too. does sound good
This is such outstanding new, I thought it warented a cut and paste. From SamB of Lohud:
——————————————————————
Today his doctor, Dr. Marc Philippon, in town for a meeting, watched Rodriguez take batting practice. Afterward, Dr. Philippon said he now doesn’t expect A-Rod to need another surgery this offseason.
“(Not) at this point in time, based on my clinical exam and what I saw in batting practice,” Dr. Philippon said. “I need to do more tests, but so far I don’t think he will need surgery.”
Philippon said Rodriguez has recovered more rapidly from surgery than other baseball players. He estimated the third baseman at 95 percent. He believed Rodriguez was no better than 75-80 percent back in the spring. Dr. Philippon also said a patient of this surgery will continue to recover for up to a year after surgery, meaning Rodriguez will continue to improve from now through spring training.
——————————————————————
Just how cool is that!
[8] This is such outstanding newS, I thought it warRented …
[9] Time to git that borken keybored ficksed. : ) @ 45 minutes!!
Here’s my dream scenario.
At some point tonight, Posada is brought in to pinch hit, and stays in the game. Tie game, bottom of the ninth, and Posada gets the game-winning hit.
Here comes AJ with a weighty pie!
To be continued …
[9] oyf you always keep things lively, warrented?
[11] cool scenario – i don’t know if i could handle it for most of the game, but that would be a helluva way to end it
It would just be funny, after all this “controversy”, for AJ to smack Jorge with a pie. I suppose it would be a different scene depending on how AJ pitches. Posada breaking up a 3-3 tie and it’s easy for Burnett to pie him. 6-6, not so much.
Air is heavy, heavy, heavy and dark, dark, dark in in New Haven, but no rain as of yet!
warrented? Jeez, 8 years of Bush has had its impact…
Hey… wouldn’t it be better for AJ to have an outstanding game, get the post game interview, and have Jorge pie AJ?
And then, when we think it’s over, Molina pies AJ again!!!!
Oh oh. Now that the Twins are rested….
THEY ARE SCRAPPY!
We are in deep shit now.
(If they get gritty tomorrow, we are doomed.)
That tie is messing with my tv
How come everyone shuts up when the game starts?
Two of the four called balls were in fact in the strike zone.
AJ looked great to those 1st 2 batters. i think he was just careful w/ Mauer, and i’m cool with that. he was pretty close on most of them, just like Ball 1 to Kubel. let’s get ‘im right here!
[20] i agree.
way to start off AJ!!!
nice inning aj
Good start. If he keeps this up, he can have Molina catch all his games.
Nasty breaking ball. I thought curve; was it really a slider?
Well, we know he’s going to walk people, and if you’re gonna walk someone, Mauer seems like the way to go.
[25] gameday called it a curve – who said slider, caray?
[25] does he throw a curve and slider? i thought he just throws an offspeed pitch that you could call either.
well at least jorgie got to catch reggie tonight
damn, he was hustling. i think they shoulda just let the game start w/ Jeter on 1st and pitch to Damon. : )
[19] I’m in and out–kidlet duty.
[30] I was afraid he’d injure himself, actually.
[29] damn, i missed it. wish i saw it. maybe it’ll be on the highlights. i might be on stage by that time.
crap.
c’mon Tex!
「２６」Missed the top of the 1st..so it’s mildly good AJ then? No problem walking Mauer, the guy is the Twins only great hitter..
Ron Darling is not so bad, btw..
[33] yeah darling is not so bad
i thought you were going to go back to normal brackets and #s for the postseason!!
[31] Making another?
[34] Ah sorry, bit early here and still groggy..coffee and mueslix first, then pointless Banter entries for me..
yeah, both AJ and Darling are pretty good.
well, ‘cept for that single…
[36] :}
though banter entries are NOT pointless
beautiful !!!
well chippy is convinced that pitch is a slider
AJ’s slider looks seriously unhittable..
[37] No Morgan, no McCarver, no complaints.
that’s a good point – gomez was completely rushed because of the santana trade
nice play. 2 outs.
[35] Har har!
NO!
[43] aren’t all met prospects rushed?
Yeah, Caray said that pitch (last inning) was a slider.
A slider is thrown quite differently, though I suppose the action might be somewhere between a normal curve and a normal slider.
Twins were fleeced in the Santana deal..
me likey!!!
Excellent.
AJ looks good — not his absolute best, but in control.