My pal Jay Jaffe is going to do a spit-take when he reads this but he and Curt Schilling have something in common–they don’t believe in Javy Vazquez. At least not in the American League East. According to an ESPN radio interview cited in this piece from the Daily News, Schilling said:
“I never, ever thought the move to New York the first time was a good one, and I didn’t think this (move) was good as well. I don’t think he suddenly learned how to pitch when he went back to Atlanta and dealt last year,” Schilling said. “It’s hard to say this without sounding disrespectful, and I don’t mean it that way – the National League is an easier league to pitch in, period, and some guys aren’t equipped to get those same outs in the American League. And he’s one of those guys.”
…”(Vazquez) thrived in Montreal and he thrived in Atlanta, and those are both second-tier cities from a baseball passion perspective. He’s not a guy that I’ve ever felt was comfortable in the glow,” Schilling said. “… You’re seeing what you’re gonna get from him consistently all year. Having said that, he could turn around next week and throw a one-hitter with his stuff. I just don’t see him being a consistent winner in the American League.”
Ouchie.
Curt, isn't there some online dragon somewhere you need to go and joust with? Besides, Alfonso Soriano was going to make you the losing pitcher in Game 7 till Randy Johnson and a fluke error bailed your ass out. So shut up and let current players play.
[1] Schilling's postseason numbers are excellent---I'm not sure what that has to do with his opinion of JV, though.
Schlling might be right, but I reserve judgment until I see Javy throwing in the 90s. If he does that and still can't perform, then maybe the AL is too difficult for him. In the meantime, I'd rather the Yankees focus on his arm instead of his head because the former is a lot easier to fix.
Hard to say this, but if you can get past the bloody sock and the whiny voice, Curt actually can be worth listening to.
[3] Moose, Pedro and other pitchers - who lost considerably more velocity in their later years than the few ticks Javy has lost - were able to pitch effectively with 88-89mph fastballs.
I know it's not fair to compare Javy (who I've never seen as a top of the rotation guy) to Hall of Famers (or borderliners like Moose), but I don't think velocity is the main problem. Location, location, location will improve his confidence. Lacking the ability to locate consistently, Vazquez's body language screams "I don't want to be here." He looks like a sad mess right now, but I don't think it has anything to do with the pressure of pitching for the Yankees, or the hostile reception he's gotten from the fans. I just think he hasn't gotten into a comfortable groove yet. I'm not too worried about him. I'm sticking to my 12-13 wins expectations.
[5] I'm not entirely worried...yet...and I agree with your prediction. That said, RLYW ran an article yesterday on Javy's velocity. On the one hand, they concluded (like you) that his velocity does not seem to be the main reason for his poor performance (a stretch of four games as bad or worse than just about any in the last three or four seasons). On the other hand, the average velocity on his fastball is something like 3 MPH lower than last year, and is just about the lowest over that same period.
It's hard to adjust to a big loss in velocity in a just a few games, I would imagine. Indeed, to take Moose (one of your examples), one could argue it took him a couple or few seasons.
[6] good point, although, as a diminished power pitcher, Moose had to re-invent himself. I don't think Javy would require as much adjustment in his approach, and might be able to do it more quickly than Moose did.
I think he'll get back over the 90mph mark once he gets comfortable, and starts consistently putting the fastball where he wants it.
It's probably just an arm, or mechanics adjustment, as william suggests in [3]
[4] maybe, but i have such antipathy for him as a person i just want him to shut his fat face tfu.
[5] [6] his fastball command is pretty horrible right now. i saw the velocity analysis at rlyw too, and agree as well that velocity is not the main or sole reason, but in addition to your caveat about the absolute decline, i think the loss of fastball velocity is going to impact someone like him that throws a lot of off-speed pitches by having little separation between his fastball and other pitches.
it is hard to conclude much from the stats from 4 starts, but a few things that jump out to me are:
1) his k/9 at 8.10 is in-line with his career average (8.14)
2) his bb/9are sky high at 4.95 compared to career average of 2.36
3) his babip is a high 342 - partly some bad luck, partly serving up too many meatballs
4) his fip is 6.28, so much of his poor performance is on him
(though i don't think having tims, who unfortunately didn't get to go to the white house yesterday so the obama's dog could eat his glove, manning lf in 2 of his 4 starts did javy any favors)
I don't think Javy will be successful pitching in the AL East, but so far his starts have been:
1 @ Angels, L
2 @ Oakland, W
3 Angels, L
4 @ Tampa, L
Only one of which was an AL East team.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5947
He lost to the Rays, who have the best record, so that's not too surprising, though he did stink up the joint. He beat the AL West leading Oakland, but lost twice to a diminished Angels team. Not sure what it all means, but maybe just start him against the Orioles. Normally I'd include Toronto as well, but I don't want to sit through a 13-12 game.
[8] heh.. Bo the dog got an even better treat... burying Nick Johnson's broken bones all around the White House lawn.
good stuff re: Javy. the walks and meatballs. that's the difference right there.
[2] Something to do with animal charities, I believe...
The worst part, so far, is that we've given up an at-the-least (or best, according to your proclivities) serviceable outfield arm, replaced by an oops!-handed PT left fielder who's bat may at best come close to the prior's production, which really isn't saying much. Now I'm leaving myself open to scrutiny on splits-comparisons, but the point is... well, I lost my train of thought, there!
[4] Fuck him.
(A very insightful and mature contribution to the discussion, I know.)
Fuck him, I say again.
[8][12] I have never really understood the antipathy that many around here feel towards Schilling.
[5] Moose struggled mightily at times during that transition. As for Pedro, well, he is in the argument for greatest pitcher of all-time, so perhaps not the best example to use.
If Vazquez is able to learn how to use an 88mph, he could be fine. Unfortunately, he has refused to throw it so far this season. If Javy does need to make an adjustment, it might not be until next season when he puts it all together.
[13] He's smug. I despise smugness.
[8] I think the lack of fastball command is directly related to his loss in velocity. When he does use the fastball, he seems to be aiming for corners. That has allowed hitters to simply work the count and sit on breaking pitches, which are much easier to hit when you know they are coming. If Vazquez is unwilling to throw his fastball over the plate, he is going to struggle because his pattern will become too predictable.
[15] I never pegged you as someone who despised the smugness of pro athletes, like, say, Barry Bonds.