Daily Archives: May 19, 2010

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball and a three-game lead on the second-best Yankees in the American League East. At 28-11, the Rays are on a 116-win pace, and their run differential suggest they’ve been even better than that.

This trick is that, though the Rays have indeed been scoring a lot of runs, they’ve not been hitting much. Tampa Bay is second in the AL and third in the majors (behind the two defending pennant winners) in runs scored per game with 5.31, but they rank 17th in slugging, 18th in on-base percentage, 20th in batting average, and 19th in VORP. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Third-Order Winning Percentage, which figures a team’s expected record from run differential but takes the extra step of figuring their runs from their component parts (hits, walks, outs, etc.), the Rays should be “just” 23-16. That .590 winning percentage still puts them on a 96-win pace, but flips the standings with the Yankees three-games ahead at 26-13, a game better than the Bombers actual record and on a 108-win pace. That’s something to chew on the next two nights as the Yankees, even with a two-game sweep can’t catch the Rays in this series.

Looking at the roster, the only Rays who are hitting are Evan Longoria (raking at .318/.386/.596) and Carl Crawford (putting up a solid walk year at .313/.372/.510 with ten steals, though he’s been caught four times). Many expected a strong walk-year performance from Carlos Peña, but the man the Yankees let go has turned back into a pumpkin, hitting a mere .191/.310/.344. Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett are proving their 2009 power surges to be flukes. After combining for 41 homers a year ago, the don’t have a single long ball between them and are hitting a combined .257/.327/.346 on the season. Similarly, bounce-back candidates B.J. Upton and Pat Burrell haven’t bounced back. Upton is doing a fair job of replicating his miserable 2009 performance minus about 20 points of batting average, and the fork sticking out of Burrell’s back was causing so many issues with airport metal detectors that the Rays just up and released him last week, replacing him with former Ranger Hank Blalock. Job shares at second base and catcher haven’t produced much either (.243/.310/.400 and .231/.336/.300, respectively).

Despite all that, the Rays have scored nearly 20 percent more runs than they should have thanks to some team speed and clutch hitting (.301/.378/.485 as a team with runners in scoring position compared to .221/.302/.351 with the bases empty). Don’t expect that to continue (in fact, it has already begun to tail off a bit as the Rays were leading the majors in runs scored not that long ago). That puts the onus on the pitching and defense.

Despite all that, the Rays are on a record win pace. Why? Pitching and defense, of course. Buoyed by the most efficient defense in the American League (in turning balls in play into outs, that is), the Rays have allowed a major league low 2.97 runs per game. To put that in perspective, no team in either league has allowed fewer than three runs per game over an entire season since 1972, when the Orioles and A’s both did it the year before the implementation of the designated hitter. Last year, the Dodgers and Giants were the stingiest teams in baseball in 2009 and both allowed 3.77 runs per game, as did the Blue Jays, who were the stingiest in 2008.

Rookie Wade Davis, who faces A.J. Burnett tonight, has the highest ERA of any of the Rays five starters. That inflated number is 3.38. As a group, the Rays’s starters, and they’ve only used five of them, have gone 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA while averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Three of those losses have been charged to Davis, and the Rays scored a total of five runs in those three loses. The Rays’ bullpen, meanwhile, has been merely the fifth best in baseball (by both ERA and WXRL).

The Rays can’t keep up that pace of run prevention, and they can’t keep scoring runs via clutch hitting alone, so it seems clear they won’t continue on their record winning pace. The only question is how much will they fall off their current pace, and can the Yankees take advantage. The two games this week will tell us a little, but not enough.

Jorge Posada is going for an MRI on his foot. Nick Swisher is still out with his sore biceps problem. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera both threw about 30 pitches last night. Sergio Mitre is also unavailable having started on Sunday. So, Mark Melancon remains in the Yankees’ eight-man bullpen and the bench consists of Ramiro Peña. If the Yanks can split these two games, they should be pleased. Get ’em next time, boys. Let the rest of the league (the Rays have yet to face the Twins, Tigers, or Rangers) and the law of averages soften them up a bit first.

(more…)

The Kiss, By Auguste Rodin (1889)

[I’ve wanted to incorporate a regular movie column to the music, art, and food features here at the Banter for more than a minute now, so here goes… My good pal, Matt Blankman, who is mad for movies, will contribute his take, as will some of the other regular Banter contributors. Here’s our debut, cue the lights…Alex Belth]

I’ve spent the last few days enjoying a rare moment of pop culture serendipity which has placed my brain squarely in the 1970s, the decade of my birth. First there’s been Josh Wilker’s fantastic new book Cardboard Gods (which we’ll assume you’re already familiar with to some extent if you’ve been keeping up with the Banter). Josh’s memoir isn’t just largely set in the 1970s, but it’s obviously shaped by it as well, and he sincerely attempts to make sense out of those strange times, how they came to pass and what they meant (and continue to mean) to him.

Soon after seeing Josh do a reading from “Cardboard Gods” last week, I found myself at home watching a new PBS documentary on the John V. Lindsay years (1966-1973) in New York City. To look back at those years now, with clear eyes, one can see many ways that the hope and exuberance of the 1960s gave way to the despair and confusion of the 1970s. How the New Frontier and Great Society faded and left us with gas lines, custom vans, pet rocks and malaise.

Finally, I watched a film from 1971 I’d never seen, The Hospital, which felt like a fictional illustration of so many of the issues present in both the Lindsay doc and Wilker’s book. The Hospital was written by Paddy Chayefsky, who was still enough of a big deal in the early 1970s that he may have been the only screenwriter ever to get his name above the title. Chayefsky’s script was directed by Arthur Hiller, a director who managed to have a lengthy career marked by a number of “big” movies and yet never once seemed to have any discernable personal style. (I’d call him a hack, except he always displayed a knack for comedic timing and knew to trust his script and cast. He may not have been much of an artist, but he wasn’t incompetent.)

(more…)

How about a fried green tomato blt? Why the hell not?

Over at SI.com, Cliff kicks off a season-long column about who is in the lead for post-season hardware. Phil Hughes holds the top spot for the AL Cy Young award. Next, two studs from Tampa Bay:

2. David Price, LHP, Rays

Season Stats: 5-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.29 K/BB

Last Four Starts: 3-0, 1.24 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.44 K/BB

This is how it was supposed to go for Joba Chamberlain. The first pick in the 2007 draft, Price arrived in the majors in late 2008 and dominated out of the bullpen as the Rays surged to their first pennant. He then opened 2009 in Triple-A to limit his innings and returned to the majors in late-May as a starter. After some growing pains in ’09, Price seems to have arrived as a dominant ace this year. However, the big difference between his 2009 and 2010 performances, like Hughes, has been some good fortune on balls in play and fly balls staying in the park, both of which could regress as the season progresses. Still, Price has Cy Young stuff and pitches for the team with the best record in baseball, so don’t be surprised if he sticks around on this list.

3. Matt Garza, RHP, Rays

Season Stats: 5-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.82 K/BB

Last Four Starts: 2-0, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.83 K/BB

One could make an argument for Rays starters James Shields and Jeff Niemann as well, which should give some explanation as to why the Rays have been the best team in baseball thus far. The top four men in their rotation are a combined 17-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 24 quality starts in 30 appearances. Shields has the best peripherals of that quartet, Niemann the second-lowest ERA after Price, but Garza has a better overall line than either of those two as well as share of the AL lead in wins, the category that seems to speak the loudest to awards voters.

Tough loss last night. Time to shrug it off, cause hey, it’s never to early to feel sexy.

This is the one of the great can’t-miss records of all-time. Hard not to move to this one. It’s a Lady-Killer.

Though it’s an everyday occurrence for beat writers who work on deadline, I rarely start writing my game recaps before I’ve seen the last out, and given that I typically watch the games on DVR-delay, that can lead to some pretty late nights. Tuesday night’s game, delayed for an hour by rain, slowed by the deliberate pace of the two starting pitchers, Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia, extended by a controversial moment when Beckett was removed ostensibly due to a back injury just after giving up a two-run double on his 101st pitch, prompting Joe Girardi to put the game under protest as the Red Sox didn’t have anyone warming in the bullpen and reliever Manny Delcarmen was allowed unlimited time to warm up on the game mound, and inflated by the usual rain-related business (pitchers cleaning their spikes, the grounds crew applying drying agents to the mound, etc.), took so damn long that I decided, with the Yankees leading 5-1 in the eighth, to start writing.

Bad idea.

The reason I usually don’t start writing before the last out is the same reason I never leave games before the last out. In baseball, until the final out is made, anything can happen.

As I began to type, Alex Rodriguez made a bad throw on a ground ball, pulling Mark Teixeira off first base and allowing Marco Scutaro to reach base to start the inning. From there, Joba Chamberlain, the first man out of the Yankee pen after CC Sabathia gutted out seven innings allowing just one run on a Kevin Youkilis solo homer, began to unravel.

Dustin Pedroia singled. J.D. Drew doubled Scutaro home. Kevin Youkilis singled home both Pedroia and Drew, and after a Victor Martinez groundout moved Youkilis to second, David Ortiz hit a would-be double off the wall in front of the Yankee bullpen to plate Youkilis and tie the game at 5-5.

I say “would-be double” because Ortiz, failing to account for the wind blowing in, didn’t run out of the box on what he thought was a home run, and was easily thrown out at second. It was that kind of game. The Yankees scored their first two runs in the second after Scutaro muffed a would-be double play ball, failing to get even one out. Rodriguez’s error started the Red Sox’s comeback.

The worst gaffe of the game, however, came in the top of the ninth with the score still knotted at 5-5 and Mariano Rivera on the hill. With one out and Darnell McDonald on first via a single, Scutaro popped up to shallow right. Robinson Cano went back and Marcus Thames came in. Thames call for the ball, which was clearly his to catch, but after Cano peeled off expecting Thames to make the catch, Thames dropped it, putting the tying run in scoring position with still just one man out. Rivera got Pedroia to ground out, but Jeremy Hermida, in the game for Drew who hurt himself running the bases during the Sox’s rally in the eighth, crushed a 2-2 pitch over Randy Winn’s head in left for a two-run double.

Having won the night before on a pair of two-run home runs off Jonathan Papelbon in the bottom of the ninth, the Yankees rallied against the Boston closer again. Again the inning started with an error, an Alex Rodriguez grounder that skipped under Scutaro’s glove. Robinson Cano, who hit the two-run double that drove Beckett from the game, followed with a double that scored Rodriguez, then was bunted to third by Francisco Cervelli to put the tying run on third with just one out.

That brought up Monday night’s hero and Tuesday night’s goat, Thames. Likely aware of Thames’ ability to lift a game-tying sac fly, never mind another game-winning two-run homer, Papelbon threw just one of his six pitches to Thames in the strike zone and Thames accepted the free pass. Ramiro Peña ran for Thames and took off on a 1-1 count to Juan Miranda, who earlier had driven in the first Yankee run of the day with a single and later added a solo homer. Miranda hit a hard grounder back up through the middle, but Papelbon made a nice stab to hold Cano at third and could have had a double play had Peña not been running. That passed the baton to Randy Winn with two outs, the Yankees down by one, and men on second and third. Winn battled Papelbon for eight pitches, three of which he fouled off on his way to working the count full, but ultimately Papelbon got the upper hand, blowing a fastball by Winn to seal the 7-6 win for Boston.

The whole affair took four hours and nine minutes, which is long enough for a nine-inning game, but with the hour rain delay, miserable weather, and sloppy play, it felt like six hours. Hell, it felt like eternity.