Yanks look to close the door on the O’s again tonight. Baltimore has a promising rookie starting; AJ Burnett goes for the Bombers.
Let’s Go Yan-Kees.
[Picture by Bags]
Tuesday
April 23, 2024
Since 2002
"This ain't football. We do this every day."
--Earl Weaver
--Earl Weaver
i hope we don't get URP'ed...
gitchya brooms!
GO YANKS!!!
Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Marcus Thames LF
Chad Moeller C
RHP A.J. Burnett
Is there any info about when Posada might be able to catch again? I'm hoping we don't have any more Moeller starts after this.
Jake Arrieta is not known for throwing a lot of strikes, so patience is likely to be the key today. Get a bunch of walks, score at least a few, and get early into the juicy bullpen.
Bold Prediction: break-out for Teixeira today.
[3] 'in my world,' there is no 411 on posada, only chad "wisdom tooth" moeller (technique).
[moeller technique is a special snare drum style of playing. it's great!]
i'll miss the game tonight due to a gig. i hope your prediction holds true. tonight and beyond...
Good reason to miss a game, glad to hear it. Happy world.
yes, thankfully a full weekend of gigs. but lost a teaching gig and the date book is about to look very barren.
a yankees win will help in the happiness dept!
[3] chad has some jorge catching news and quotes from gi joe about it up in his pre-game notes at lohud. good stuff.
Maybe Joe is looking for Po to get his stroke back before he starts him behind the plate.
[8] neh, it's more of him being able to catch for 9 innings.
Great, bad AJ tonight.
This might not be fun. Come on, AJ.
Mean while, the Red Sox have two runs in and the bases loaded with one out in the first.
Why exactly does Girardi keep matching up the older, slower and less athletic Moeller with Burnett?
[11] One loss to the Indians is really all you can ask.
You see this over at RAB, william?
Wow, the Indians are really bad.
[14] I've fallen out of the habbit of reading RAB, so thanks for passing it along. Doesn't surprise me about Maddon. He was also the one who revived the dramatic shifts we now see, and as I have been documenting, has rediscovered the art of the squeeze. I wish the Yankees had such an innovative manager.
Hoo boy.
He had a chance to get out of this mess with minimal damage...
[4] thelarmis, this might be the game to miss.
Okay. Moderate damage. And two Ks, so it gives one hope.
The Mutts and Santana get 2 hit and lose. What a waste of talent.
We don't have our first National League game until Arizona, June 21st, so my guess is Joe would rather be safe then sorry, and make sure Po is 100% for those 6 NL games. There is an off day between Arizona and LA, and all 6 games are night games, so Po could Catch 5 of those 6 games.
And what is it with LA? Night games on both Sat. and Sun.?
Oh, just fucking great ... A-ROD had to come out of the game?!??!?!
[21] Yeah, that's unlikely to be good.
[20] Hven't decided how many of the NY - LA games I'm going to go to ... have to wait to see how the pitching matchups work out.
I sure hope Hughes pitches
Meanwhile ... RIPPER!!!!!!!!
Huh, look at how they're pitching Rob. Heaters high and away.
Whoops, should have stuck with those, I guess!
[23] Hughes is on track to start the 1st game of that series, but there are 2 off days in between, so who knows what that will do the scheduling of the starters.
Welcome to the big leagues, son.
I love me some Robbie. Hopefully Centaur is not in the stable too long.
Marco Scutaro is on track to get nine hits this game. (Got his second leading off the second inning.)
Did ARod field a ball? Has he had ANY action tyhis game?
And now Pedroia joins Scutaro [28].
Andy Marte has three errors. It's quite a game.
The Yankees missing the playoffs in 07 wasn't because of the rookies in the rotation, it was because of injuries to the offense.
[32] er, 2008...
The powerful Moeller - Jeter combo!
Kay still can't read OF'ers after all these years
[32] Posada in particular (as Cliff always rightly insisted).
Yay, Cap! Yay, Swish!
I give Thompson NO CREDIT AT ALL.
What an asswipe play. Sending SloMo with no out and 2-3-4 up? Just stupid. And it was close at the plate. We caught a break.
What? FOUL? Let's see that again!
Ouch. Wasn't that where Teix likes it?
[37] The Rays' coaches never do that.
[37] Makes sense, given that Teix & Pena aren't tearing the cover off the ball
No report on ARod yet? Possible he went to take a piss and caught his ARod in his zipper?
[39] Yeah, they'd set Maddon up to run another squeeze play :)
Thames' outfield defense hasn't improved any in 8 years.
After that horrid first inning, AJ's managed to get through three innings with a lead and only 42 pitches under his belt.
Scutaro will not go 9 for 9 today! He strikes out in the third inning.
And Lester will not throw a no-hitter.
... or a shut-out.
Scott Moore. A man who knocks a home run once per season. Congratulations, Scott Moore.
If it's a simple issue, I can't imagine why we haven't heard about ARod yet.
Is he in the dugout?
Is he covered in blood?
Is Kate Hudson in the stadium?
What happened to A-Rod?
[51] Dunno. No report yet.
[51] That is the 64 million dollar question (we don't know).
Fun to see a little bit of strategy.
Oh, hooray. Girardi is putting in plays.
Ah, and Not Dave Trembley counters with a foolish move of his own! (Although, it's Rob, maybe I can buy the IBB.)
As for "protection" there's nothing wrong with fattening up your OBP with a walk.
[54] "Fun" in the teeth-grinding sense, yes.
[55] Trying to set up the double play, I presume
[58] Indeed. Also, Robinson Cano. Perhaps you've heard of him.
Problem is, if Rob scores, that's a very big run. (I mean, problem with Samuel's strategy.)
Sunuva...
Oh, lord. Juan Samuel, genius.
[59] And if Posada GIDP's they're out of the inning.
Gross. Thames hits that pitch like Soriano. Not so much.
[61] Makes sense that they'd rather face Thames than Granderson.
So... when Po catches, is Thames/Miranda the DH?
So, on the plus side, it's their bat vs. Brains' bat.
On the minus, it's Po's defense (and wear and tear) vs Brains defense.
Frankly, I'm not sure having Po Catch is that much of an upgrade.
[62] Of course.
But that's maybe about 10% of the time, right?
Anyway, it worked, so Samuel gets a pass.
[64] I still don't like that IBB (even though it worked). First, batters hit much better with the bases loaded. Second, it puts huge pressure on the pitcher not to walk Thames. Third, sometimes that runner comes in to score, and it would still be a somewhat important run at this stage.
[65] Big upgrade over Molina. I agree, pretty close call vs. Cervelli.
[65] Oh lord, please stop with this. Frankie's just FABULOUS, but he's also NOT a Major League hitter.
He never projected to be at in time in the minors and he isn't now.
Frankiemania is just as bizarre and unfounded as the fetishism that called for Jose Molina to start over Posada.
Oh, sorry, I take that back ... it's CRAZIER ... at least Molina threw basestealers out.
Uh oh.
[69] No, it's really not like that -- because Posada is going to be batting either way, and we don't have a very good alternative DH. I take it this was OYF's point, and I think it's a good point.
[66] Well Posada hits grounders @ a 49% rate, so it wouldn't be surprising if he hit into a dp
[69] The issie is Not Po vs Brains, but Brains vs our DH. With NJ out, and considering the VAST difference in defense between Po and Brains, And the unknown if Po might be better if he's more rested. I think it is close. It's another story if/when NJ comes back.
[70] Yeah, I'm gonna say, no.
Thames/Miranda + Posada >>>>> Posada + Cervelli
[65] That sounds about right, but Miranda's in the minors, and wont be recalled until Moeller goes down.
[67] But it's Thames, who traditionally hasn't done well against RHP
Umps gotta be kidding with these check swing calls...
VAST difference?
Based on what stat exactly?
Caught Stealing:
Frankie 3/19 = 14%
Jo Po 4/17 = 19%
[71] His GIDP rate is something like 5%, though. In that very situation, maybe higher.
Frank Mata vs Chad Cavity...think I'll head over to the Lakers-Celtics now..Go Go Yankees! Go Go Lakers!
Well, at the very least, I'd rather have had Brains hitting their rather than Fuzzy ...
[73] Thames against a lefty, maybe. In other cases I think you have too many ">" there.
Posada catching is going to be more important when the Yanks play in the NL w/o the DH. Otherwise, right now with no NJ and no real DH alternative, I can see the argument for Po (DH) + Cervelli (C) ≥ Thames/Miranda (DH) + Po (C).
Except that going with Po as the DH will almost certainly compel Girardi to continue to carry Moeller, wasting a roster spot.
I read some totally unfounded rumor about the Yankees going after Berkman. Having a somewhat real option at DH would end all of this chatter.
[75] Based on the fact that he just, you know, looks better. And because is the worst defensive catcher ever to play the game and also calls the worst games and makes all pitchers worse. Or so I hear.
[79] Uh, yeah, that's the point of the "/" ... to signify a platoon?
[82] Uh, but he's playing today. Did you notice? Arrieta is a righty.
[83] Is Gardner hurt? Odd that Thames would get the start against the righty
Kevin Russo looks an awful lot like Cerveli...
WTF? Why not Russo? He's going into the field.
[84] Yeah, his thumb. Probably no big deal, "day to day", etc.
Gardy is out a few days with a thumb ouchie.
[83] Uh, wow, the fact that today is Thursday is ALSO about as relevant to the previous conversation.
What the HELL does Thames playing LF because Gardner is out with a day-to-day injury have to do with how Girardi will platoon his DH's with Posada catching?
Which LHB LF is Girardi NOT playing tonite to get Thames' bat in the lineup?
[86] Presumably a double switch, with Cervelli going in to C and Russo into 3B. It uses two players, but I can understand if Girardi feels this is his best time to use his best (only?) PH.
[89] Okay, so I don't follow you.
If Posada were catching, who would be DHing today, according to you?
This team is too bad to lose to. Lets figure it out next inning.
[90] Good call.
Cervelli since Posada was put on the DL 5/20:
10/70 .175/.300/.175 .475 OPS
Not including that last strikeout, of course ...
Wow... Thames caught one!
Aw my gawd, Lestah coughed up that 5-0 lead!
From ESPN, updated 9:18.
Rodriguez had a flare-up of the groin tightness he suffered on Sunday, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
[91] I don't know, Roy Hobbs?
Sure, he's a fantasy, but then again, so is the question.
Posada *couldn't* catch tonite, so my comments were not at all concerned with Girardi's temporal lineup construction, but rather how to maximize the 2 positions after Posada *can* catch and the Yankees can choose the batters that will fill the DH spot when Posada is behind the plate (vs Posada + Cervelli).
I freely admit that I drank the NJ koolaid and predicted that the stick could avoid major DL time this year. My bad. That being said, his injury has really weakened this team. It's not a crisis yet, but once again the bench is absolutely abysmal with no options in sight. When you're PH Frankie Cervelli, you know you need to upgrade the bench.
I find the guy in this Continental Airlines ad very annoying
Jays up on TB 3-1 after 7.5. Injuns up on Six 6-5 after 6.
Nothing like a lineup with Pena, Thames, Russo, Moeller and friends.
[99[ True. I'm guessing the Yanks expect NJ back. If not, they should be shopping a DH... and there are probably plenty to be had.
[98] The question of who would DH if Posada were catching is a fantasy? I have no idea what that means. And what is "temporal lineup construction"?
In any case, let me try my question in the way you seem to prefer.
When Posda *can* catch and the Yankees can choose the batters that will fit the DH spot when Posada is behind the plate, and a pitcher like Arrieta is pitching, who will DH? I assume that is not a fantasy question.
I wonder if Bonds has stayed in shape.
These are the ABs when Granderson doesn't measure up to a Damon or Matsui. It's hard to have a near automatic out in the lineup late against lefties. With no bench to compound the problem, the Yankees lineup once again looks very thin.
[103] Even if he will be back, they should be shopping for a DH, or at least one other legitimate bat. There will be room for NJ + X by getting rid of two of Moeller, Russo and Peña. Or, in my wildest but surely unfulfilled fantasies, an extra bat can be added by cutting the pitching staff to 11.
[104] Chad goes down when Po is healthy, so I assume Miranda/Thames. And I the only one who thinks Brains is a vast defensive upgrade over a 38 year old Po? I thought while we all love Po, it was agreed his D was between terrible and OMFG! Catcher is still a defensive position, yes?
[103] If the Yankees are operating like they expect Nick Johnson to return, we could be in big trouble
And of course, those check swings are called strikes....
[107] an 11 man staff? Oh the horror!
[107] Agreed. Thames is a 1/2 dimensional player. We could certainly find better then him and DFA him AND add another bat.
[108] He is a big defensive upgrade. But the question is whether that's worth the offensive difference between Cervelli and {whoever the DH is}.
[108] Ahhh, but the million dollar question as always is how to quantify (in terms of runs, for example) more subjective terms like "vast"? If Posada's bat essentially cancels out Cervelli's supposed vast defensive advantage, isn't it better to catch Po and use someone else at DH (who presumably will hit better than Cervelli)?
[111] He's a 1/2 dimensional player! Wow! Good thing we have Brett, who is 12 dimensional.
[104] The question of who would DH if Posada were catching is a fantasy?
*Tonite* it is. And that's because the Yankees knew that Posada couldn't catch, KNEW that Posada WASN'T going to be able to catch any time soon when he came back a WEEK ago, and made roster decisions based on that assumption.
If Posada could catch, if he was anywhere CLOSE to being able to catch (as opposed to just now BARELY starting his working to get ready to return to catching) the Yankees would have known that there was a need to fill the DH slot for that eventuality.
Of course, Posada ISN'T anywhere close to returning to catching, so there ISN'T a DH slot to fill, so, yes, the question was fantastical.
When the Yankees DO need a DH, after Posada CAN catch, I'd expect Miranda.
[111] Thames is a perfect bench player if rosters were sanely constructed, with 10 or 11 pitchers and 14 or 15 position players. But in the days of two and three man benches (after the BUC), it's tough to carry a Thames.
[113] Wait, no, it's not whether Posada's bat cancels Cervelli's defense. It's whether the new DH's bat vs. Cervelli's bat is a bigger difference than Posada's defense vs. Cervelli's defense.
I agree, it's very hard to quantify. (On the other hand, it's easy to overestimate the upgrade of one good hitter, I think.)
One good thing about Posada's injury is it gave us a look at Cervelli as a starter, and I think the results suggest he is indeed a backup (in other words, don't go trading Romine or Montero).
Cashman really deserve some criticism for the Yankees lack of depth. There were tons of options this off season, but he still left the team exposed to the inevitable injuries they have suffered. This game is an example of the team's lack of depth.
[114] You're more of a math guy than me, but I thought that---more precisely---Gardy was the point at which 12 dimensions converge, or something like that.
Way to work the count Thames.
[108] I refer you to [81]
Posasda 22 starts 3 PB 8 WP 4/17 S/CS
Cervelli 34 starts 1PB 9WP 3/19 S/CS
[115] I guess I don't know what 'fantastical' means.
You seem unusually excitable this evening.
[116] we just finally got rid of the notion of having two situational lefties on the same team. I don't think we're going to go to an 11 man bullpen any time soon.
Nicely done, ROOK!
That could have been you Thames!
[118] Cervelli's minor league numbers suggested that he wouldn't hit enough to be a regular.
[119] That may be right, and yet, he is also 12 dimensional. He is a superstring.
Jeter taking a page from the Thames book.
That a pretty poor AB by Jeter, who has kind of level off again.
We will see spome fierce swings from Swisher here.
You have to run with Gardner here, even if it leaves you short.
[117] Wait, no, it’s not whether Posada’s bat cancels Cervelli’s defense
I think that we're saying the same thing, no? In both scenarios, Posada will bat (as C or DH). We can also assume that any other reasonable DH option will outhit Cervelli (Thames or Miranda, but not, say, Miguel Cairo).
Thus, if Posada's offensive advantage over Cervelli outweigh's Cervelli's defensive advantage over Posada, then Posada should catch and player Z should DH. If, on the other hand, Cervelli's defense outweighs Po's offense, Cervelli should catch and Posada should DH, pushing player Z to the bench or AAA.
I think that works.
Too bad no one told the hitters they'd all walk if they were patient enough.
You seem unusually excitable this evening.
An URP and the grapes of wrath ...
Well that sucked.
[123] Gaudin and Mitre are redundant, the Yanks could get by with either.
Embarrassing loss and pitiful effort.
I have to think this road trip has to be a big disappointment for a number of reasons.
Crappy game.
[131] I like it! If the game is extended, then Teix to 3B and Posada or Swish to 1B.
Still no word on Rodriguez?
[132] No, I'm sure that's wrong, because if it were right then it would be irrelevant how good the DH is, and that's obviously not true.
Since Posada's bat is in the lineup either way, it doesn't matter how much better a hitter he is than Cervelli. It wouldn't matter even if he hit like Babe Ruth. On the other hand, if the DH were Babe Ruth, then certainly Posada should catch.
[136] Logan and Marte were redundant. We still went through a month of whatever the fuck the point of that was, and I fully expect to see it again this year at some point.
I guess I'll watch the basketball.
Oh, wait, Manny Delcarmen has got himself into a great situation, I think I'll watch that first...
Cult, the only solution is: more grape.
[138] Huge disappointment. You can't go 3-3 against the Jays and Orioles. The offense was anemic in 5 of the 6 games, so that's a bad sign too. The Yankees really haven't beaten many good teams over the past two months, so at some point, that will come back to haunt them.
Duncan was HBP in the hand with the bases loaded, landed in V-Mart's mitt, and the ump called it foul tip and a K! Shelley is very pissed. I saw him mouth "fuckin bullshit".
[145] Going 3-3 against these teams is bad enough, but another wretched performance by the offense on the road is alarming as well.
TB cuts lead to 3-2. Tying run on 1st.
[142] I'm operating on the assumption that, offensively, Posada > Player Z > Cervelli. In that case, Posada or Player Z will DH. Player Z cannot catch. So the only issue is whether Cervelli is a better option or worse option than Posada at catcher, which boils down to whether Cervelli's defensive advantage outweighs or is outweighed by Posada's offense.
As for you hypothetical of Babe Ruth as the DH, in that case my assumption fails because Player Z (Ruth) > Posada > Cervelli on offense. In this case, Ruth definitely plays DH, but you still need to determine whether Cervelli's defense outweighs Posada's offense, to decide whether Ruth (DH) + Cervelli (C) > or < Ruth (DH) + Posada (C).
Those crazy Rays stole 2nd with two outs trailing 3-2 in the ninth. What are they thinking!
Frustrating loss, but hey, maybe it's tough to take four out of four from a team as lousy as the Orioles.
I really do want to beat them every last single game, one, because games against them are like gold, and two, because I can't tell you how much I resent not being able to WATCH the Yankees beat his miserably crappy team, thanks to the deal Angelos struck to let the Expos go National(s).
NONE OF US LIKE YOUR TEAM, ANGELOS. YOU ARE A PITIFUL EXCUSE FOR AN OWNER. PLEASE ALLOW THOSE OF US IN DC TO WATCH YOUR TEAM LOSE FROM THE COMFORT OF OUR HOME.
Ok, so I know there was an internal contradiction in that rant, but I *only* watch the Orioles when they play/lose to the Yankees. Otherwise, I would rather sleep in sandpaper than watch that pathetic team.
To tonight's game, a few comments:
1) wow, is our bench ridiculous. When you have no choice but to let Thames hit against the righty and then you have to bat Russo (good job, though, drawing the walk, kid!) - that is a striking state of affairs.
2) Sounds like tonight we had an appearance from that rarest of specimen - "Mediocre AJ."
Not sighted all that often.
3) Because I had to listen on the radio, may I please say, Holy Shit.
Sterling has always been a joke, he's always been terrible, but he has reached a level of unlistenability that is off the charts.
I have no idea what has actually happened until a good three seconds in with half of the pitches thrown in a game. He has no freaking clue. The final out was a classic bit of Sterling buffoonery. I've always had a soft spot for him because he's "our buffoon" and some of his home run calls crack me up, but if you can't come close to following the game, it may be time to get someone new in there.
And Susan has lost about ten steps, as well. Susan - know what inning we are in. Please. You're still being paid to watch baseball. It's not asking a lot that you pay some fucking attention once in a while.
Alex - I'll try to get you tonight. Sorry for being so slow on the rebound, but the trip to NY was more draining than I expected and that bus ride, damn, that thing is a killer. I've been wiped out.
[150] Upstarts!
Oh, Branyon strikes out on full count, Indians don't score.
How can Posada's offense be relevant when his bat is going to be in the lineup either way? Think about it. That's impossible. The offensive comparison is: Cervelli vs DH. The defensive comparison is: Posada vs. Cervelli.
I do see what you mean about assuming that the DH < Posada at offense, I'd missed that. So, let's continue to assume that (since it's obviously true).
[150] Were there two strikes? We're occasionally allowed to steal a base, but only if there are two strikes and the batter theoretically has too swing at anything close.
[151] Sterling has always been a joke, he’s always been terrible, but he has reached a level of unlistenability that is off the charts.
I have simply stopped listening to games here, when I can only get the Yanks radio feed. I only follow on gameday.
Oh, Toronto got it done, thank goodness. Man, when they're playing anyone but us, their bullpen gives me serious ageta.
[153] At this point, I question whether Posada is even ready to hit. He has been awful since coming back from the injury. For once, Kay made a good point during the game when he questioned whether intensive catching drills were the best way to prepare to hit each day.
If Berkman is available, the Yankees need to be in on the action. This lineup is really hanging together by a thread. If Arod is out for a while, the Yankees are in huge trouble.
Another Maddon win!
Well, no, but a moral victory, with Carl Crawford on second base.
[155] I find following only on Gameday to be too painful. When we are losing on Gameday, it's like having my teeth pulled, slowly, one by one.
[149] Maybe I can make this clearer: We either have
(1) Po at (C) and Miranda/Thames at (DH) or
(2) Po at (DH) and Brains at (C)
Advantages for:
(1) Offense gained: Miranda/Thames vs Brains
vs
(2) Brains' D vs Posada's D
(2) Brains' speed vs Miranda/Thames speed (minor)
(2) Brains' vs Posada's handling/game calling (unknown)
(2) Keeping Posada (who's 38) fresher for NL and PS games, where he WILL Catch.
I contend that until we have a better DH then Miranda/Thames, this is a close call.
[153] How can Posada’s offense be relevant when his bat is going to be in the lineup either way? Think about it.
Because it determines whether he displaces Cervelli from C or not. He is going to play at C or at DH either way. If his bat + defense outweighs Cervelli's bat + defense, then Posada catches and Player Z plays DH. If posada's bat + defense does not outweigh Cervelli's bat + defense, then Cervelli should catch and Posada should DH.
Player Z can't catch, and (presumably) Cervelli (as a player whose value is tied up in defense) will not DH. We all accept that Posada is a lesser defensive player than Cervelli. The only remaining issue is the degree to which Posada is a superior offensive player than Cervelli...that will determine whether he should DH or catch.
[158] Shame on him for trying to put his team in the best position to win! Girardi needs to teach him a lesson about the art of sitting back and doing absolutely nothing (at least until it comes time to spin the wheel during bullpen roulette).
[159] Gameday & the Banter are pretty good for me..though tonight's Posada/Thames/Frankie debate was C-Span level interesting...
[160] If those are the Yankees options over the long haul, I don't think answer to your question makes much of a difference. It's a shame that the Yankees are forced to weigh such unattractive choices.
[151] Our bench is lousey, but consider:
1) Po is limited, but takes up a roster spot.
2) Gardy is out D2D, but takes up a roster spot
3) ARod was out today, but takes up a roster spot
So our Bench is not very good, but especially bad today, due to the above.
Ridiculous play in Cleveland. Papi hits a ball off the first baseman, but the ball ricochets to the 2B, who then tosses to the pitcher covering just ahead of the Ortiz. Was kind of like a pinball game.
[162] Since the Yanks are leading the league in runs, I can understand why Girardi would sit back and wait for his proven offensive weapons to come through
[161] Because it determines whether he displaces Cervelli from C or not.
Well, that's the question. I don't think it does determine whether he displaces Cervelli from C -- anyway you can't assume that.
Look, imagine that our potential DH is only .003 OPS points better than Cervelli at defense. Then obviously you would have Cervelli catch and Posada DH, right? Now suppose our potential DH is only .003 OPS points worse than Posada. Then (I'd say) you should have Posada catch and Cervelli ride the bench. Doesn't that seem right?
[165] Fair point - what that confluence does, though, is expose just how scary thin it is.
[167] What a crazy thought...
[167] We've had this debate before. I don't think the Yankees league leading run total should factor into what you do when your cleanup hitter becomes Ramiro Pena, for example, but I guess you could stick the same philosophy regardless of any context.
[162] Girardi did try a play today. It was bad. Trying to put your team in a better position is not admirable. Only succeeding is admirable.
I don't think AJ Burnett is a big Kim Jones fan.
[171] What play was that? I think trying is admirable when their is good support for the attempt.
I contend that until we have a better DH then Miranda/Thames, this is a close call.
And I'll contend that though Frankie is FABULOUS, [121] is still [121].
I'm glad legend says that Frankie is 11 feet tall and shoots fireballs from his arse, but his record of this year, the *actual* accounting of his throws and swings and plays and "moments in the sun", as fun and perky and spark-plug-y as he may be, says he's a worse player to have behind the plate than Posada.
[170] And when the situation was appropriate, Pena laid down a bunt to advance Teix to third.
If Arod had cramps before the game, why was he playing!! That's absurd. It not only cost the Yankees two runs on defense, but killed the lineup.
[168] Look, imagine that our potential DH is only .003 OPS points better than Cervelli at defense.
I'm not being difficult, but I don't understand what you mean here.
Now suppose our potential DH is only .003 OPS points worse than Posada. Then (I’d say) you should have Posada catch and Cervelli ride the bench. Doesn’t that seem right?
Only if Po's offensive advantage outweighs Cervelli's defensive advantage. Of the DH is a better hitter than Po and Cervelli's defense outweighs Po's offense, then Posada should ride the pine, right?
So again, it all boils down to the relative advantages (Cervelli's defensive v. Po's offensive) of the two players.
I am loathe to say it, and while I can throw together stats to show various things (and btw, shocking that the "they will never have a blip" Rays came straight back to the peloton once they started playing a remotely non-ridiculous schedule) - and I do want to run some stats over the weekend, if I get a chance...
What the eyes say is that this team does not look very good right now. No bench, some bad holes in the lineup, all sorts of bumps and bruises and nagging things that seem to be increasing daily, as well as absolutely not a single guy I trust in the bullpen outside of Mo.
And yes, I feel like the Yanks have been utter crap against any of the remotely good teams. I haven't looked yet, but I think they are about to play some pretty decent teams. I'm gripping my pillow tight.
[173] Pena bunted Teixeira to third. Very crappy play. Also a failure.
[174] Hypotheticals aside, I pretty much agree with this.
[176] Swisher's play in RF didn't help matters much either
[177] Hm. Well, my point is that it's how good a batter the DH is, not how good a batter Posada is, that has to be weighed against the Cervelli/Posada defensive advantage. To see this, first take a case where the DH advantage over Cervelli is very small. Then take a case where it is very large. I think you'll see that in the latter case, Posada should start at catcher, while in the former Cervelli should.
If you'll notice, my examples did obey your stricture, Posada > DH > Cervelli at hitting.
[167] The lineup we threw out there tonight and for a good portion of this year wasn't exactly rife with proven offensive weapons. "Lets all stand around and hope Randy Winn hits the Earl Weaver three run homer" didn't work out all that well.
Mind you, I know Brains is a poor hitter. However, over his MLB CAREER, he has posted a .361 .439 .417 .856 line against Leftys. So, he should Catch (and Po DH) against LHP.
My prediction: Until we get a better DH, Po and Brains will split Catching almost 50/50. Keeping Po fresh for the PS is a priority, and we will see LHP about 30% of games played.
Johnson, Nunez combine to shut out Phillies, Halladay in perfect game rematch
WOW! Philly is ONLY FOUR ganes over .500. What happened to them???
[179] You wanted Pena to swing away? Posada's AB was awful, not the strategy.
[183] How can you say it "didn't work out all that well" when we lead the league in runs???
Fucking 2-run HR for Beltre.
FUCK!!!!!!!!!!
Injuns give up 2 runs with 2 out in the 9th.
Sox up 7-6 in the 9th.
Beltre gives the Sox the lead. Cripes.
[186] Yes, definitely. A one run strategy at that point of the game is very bad.
Fuck me. Fuck Kerry Wood. Dammit. I saw the hit batter - Wood, you &^$#@ ##!! and then he did that?
Fuck fuck fuck.
There sure are an abundance of guys who "used to be good or were thought to have a chance at being good and now completely suck" in the relevant news category recently (in other words, news that is relevant to us as Yankees fans - I just couldn't figure out how to freaking say that).
But between Wood, and the Orioles whole team of former first round picks who stink and Tejada, and so on... maybe just wanted to say something else nasty after that hump blew the lead. Just seems like a trend recently...
[190] With anyone, but Pena, I'd agree. Unfortunately, Ramiro has been an absolute zero, which makes you wonder why he didn't go with Russo in the first place, which would have left a pinch runner for later in the game.
[177] Please read [160] and tell me if I missed something.
Cleveland has a lead off BB in the 9th.
And mlb.com cut the radio feed before I could hear Girardi explain himself about A Rod.
An Angelos blackout, Sterling in the booth, a Yanks loss to an URP, and then an early cutoff from the service I *am paying for* - wow, grumpiness abounds.
Here come the Injuns!
Shin Cho Cho with a double!!! 2nd and 3rd, no out in Cleveland.
Choo is a good player. Best on the team, maybe.
[199] He is...best of his country too.
[182] My brain is not working well tonight, so I'll have to mull this over later...I'm just not seeing what you are arguing. It just seems to me that the key decision is who should catch (Po v. Cervelli), and this decision is determined (oversimplified) by PO's offense v. Cervelli's defense (or more accurately, whether Cervelli's bat + glove is > or Player Z > Cervelli, this must yield one of two outcomes:
1. Player Z DHs if Posada catches
2. Posada DHs if Cervelli catches
In either case, Posada is in the lineup, but his position is determined by his relative value v. Cervelli at catcher, NOT either Cervelli's or Posada's relative value v. Player Z at DH.
2-0 on Kearns, Bard with 8 pitches, 7 balls.
[193] I'd certainly rather have Russo batting there than Pena, yes. But Pena with RISP hits about .250. Some of his outs would advance the runner anyway (not many, I admit). And moving Teixeira to third by no means guarantees that he scores (obviously, in retrospect). The difference between Pena and a decent hitter there's maybe one extra hit in 20 at bats, right? Small difference compared to just giving away the out, killing rally potential...
Bard walks the bases loaded.
Bard is just off. Walks Kearns, bases loaded, here we go...
[183] Expecting Randy Winn to do it instead of say, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter, Granderson, Posada, Teixiera, etc could be part of the problem...
[190] May have been bad, but made sense given that Pena has a noodle bat.
[203] I don't think Pena has had enough ABs with RISP to draw a meanigful conclusion. In this case, I think Pena is so bad with the bat that a bunt is not only the best way to move the runner to the third, but also Pena's best way of getting on (and he almost did).
[201] MP.... PLEASE. Your Brain is fogging my Brain. Read [160]. Do you agree? Did I miss something. Forget X,Y,Z. I laid (layed?) it out in English.
Nice of Hafner to swing at the 1-0 that was about a foot inside.
The Indians aren't going to score here.
Shit. Hafner Ks. One out, bases loaded.
Bard steams a 100mph heater on the outside corner, down Hafner looking. Wow.
Rooting for Thames, Russo and Pena was good practice for rooting on the Indians.
Speaking of guys who used to be kind of good and are now just ghosts...
Travis Hafner was introduced to the world of suck a while ago.
Bard vs. Branyan will either be a K or 500 foot HR.
[213] Heh. Thames does seem like he should be on the Indians.
[208] I'm not sure I agree with your final assessment. Assuming he is healthy, I think that Posada at C is far more valuable than Cervelli, despite the latter's supposed VAST defensive advantage as well as his well documented enthusiasm. Moreover, I think that Miranda or Thames represent a pretty sizable offensive advantage over Cervelli as well.
If Po is healthy, the ONLY way to go is Po behind the plate and Thames/Miranda at DH.
Travis Hafner: Injury, no steroids, no Kate Hudson.
Shit. 2 out in Cleveland.
Unbelievable.
Bard is very good when he's good.
Incredible...the Indians just suck.
Torture. I've been under a rock - what is the deal with Papelbon right now?
If Po is healthy, the ONLY way to go is Po behind the plate and Thames/Miranda at DH.
This.
THIS.
ONE THOUSAND TIMES ... THIS.
[217]
"Moreover, I think that Miranda or Thames represent a pretty sizable offensive advantage over Cervelli as well."
Of course. We all agree with that. However, that offensive gain is offset by:
(2) Brains’ better D vs Posada’s D
(2) Brains’ speed vs Miranda/Thames speed (minor)
(2) Brains’ vs Posada’s handling/game calling (unknown)
(2) Keeping Posada (who’s 38) fresher for NL and PS games, where he WILL Catch.
INJUNS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[221] Bereavement leave. Some family thing, they aren't saying what.
YES!!!!!! Over My Little Pony FTW!!!!
A walkoff for the Tribe...I knew they'd do it!
[220] Yeah, the Indians have got yer suck RIGHT HERE!!!
=)
[225] Heh. And not even a HR!
So the Sox join the Yankees in deplorable losses on a night when they could have gained a game on the Rays. Misery loves company.
Yanks lose.
TB loses.
Sox lose.
That means: Today never happened.
Great basketball game -- I've been flipping back and forth.
Hallelujah!!!!
Yes!
Crankiness? Gone.
We do still look like a very mediocre mash unit, and that can't bode well for the future, but for tonight, everything was a wash. And that makes me happy, especially with what a gruesome ending that seemed to be heading towards.
[229] I thought it meant a missed opportunity :)
Why did Pedroia hold on to the ball? What was the worst that could happen if if threw it?
[223] Of course. We all agree with that. However, that offensive gain is offset by:...
As I implied in [217], in response to [208] and [160}, I do not believe for a moment that Posada's offensive advantage is balanced by the factors that you list, especially the notion of keeping Po fresh for the NL games and/or the PS. Posada should start the the number of games he should start behind the plate (100-120 assuming a full season), with Cervelli backing him up. There is no need to "save him" for later.
[224] Thanks for the info.
Just watched the highlight - delightful to watch that ball fly over the midget's outstretched arm.
[234] Dude! Are you smoking crack. There is no 'Posada’s offensive advantage'. Po is batting either way. The offensive advantage is Miranda/Thames vs Brains. THAT Advantage is on ONE side of the equation. The other side is the things I listed.
Now... I'm not saying that Brains(C) and Po(DH) is necessarily better, but I don't think it's much worse. The issues are:
(1) How do you qualify IF/How much better Brains handles pitchers and calls games. We know he is far superior (to Po) on D... especially blocking the plate.' It is easy to measure the offensive gain between 2 players, but defensive gain is hard to qualify. However, most managers consider C to be the most, or 2nd most important defensive position.
And you don't think limiting a 38 year old Catchers games to keep him fresh is an issue? With potentially a 19 games PS? Even Mauer only starts 140 or so games.
Sheed is what he is, he isn't ever going to learn...
[236] There is no ‘Posada’s offensive advantage’. Po is batting either way.
Good heavans, how many times must I explain this. Posada WILL bat either way, but it is his relative advantage over Cervelli that determines (or should determine) if he should C more or less full time or DH more or less full time. So, if Po's bat outweighs Cervelli's perceived defensive advantage, then Po should C more or less full time, with Thames/Miranda at DH. it really is that simple.
We know he is far superior (to Po) on D… especially blocking the plate....
I actually reject this assumption. Someone earlier posted a few admittedly meager stats and they do not show Cervelli to be much better on defense. He blocks the plate better. What does that amount to, an extra base for the opposing team once every few games? Now dont get me wrong, he sure *seems* better on defense, but because we can't really quantify it, as you admit, I am not willing to assume VAST advantage and weaken the lineup.
And you don’t think limiting a 38 year old Catchers games to keep him fresh is an issue.
It IS an issue. But the team is, presumably, already taking care of this by limiting Posada's starts behind the plate in any case. He was probably scheduled to start 100-120 games at C, with the rest divided between bench and DH. That strikes me as perfectly fine. On the other hand, it seems silly to hold him out of C even more simply to save him for later games...especially for post season games that may never materialize. He should start at the position that gives the team the greatest advantage (this clearly seems to be C) and be given enough rest to keep him fresh and productive all year without unduly compromising the lineup---no more, no less.
From Lohud (and there is more):
Alex Rodriguez said he felt some stiffness in his groin before batting practice, then again a few minutes before first pitch. He assumed it would loosen up when he got in the game, but that never happened.
[238] MP.... go to bed. You are not thinking clearly.
Tomorrow... read [160]. Nothing else. Just [160]. See if I present the equation accurately.
[236] However, most managers consider C to be the most, or 2nd most important defensive position.
Yes, but that does not mean that you MUST punt offense, or that it is not better to play a weaker defensive player (relative to position) assuming that he carries a big bat. Look at it this way, Posada is already one of only three players on the roster who can credibly catch. He is already a defensive specialist relative to the rest of the team (it's not like the Yankees are putting Teix behind the plate just for the sake of offense at the position). That he is the worst of the three players on defense for the position does not automatically mean that he should not start at the position even if it is one of the most important defensive positions.
[240] I read [160] and responded to it more than once. I think your calculation or estimation or weighing of relative factors is wrong. Please see [222].
Also, Brains had pretty poor MiLB offensive numbers. The ONLY reason he is still in baseball is because he is EXCELLENT defensively. And he has shown this on PBs/WPs saved (remember how many Po has missed in the last 2 years) as well as blocking the plate. He is quick and agile behind the plate. We have all seen this.
His MLB career CS% is 28%, same as Po's.... although over the last 3 years, Po is around 23%.
I think in his prime, Po was at least average defensively. But over the last 2 years, his D has declined greatly. Just read our threads for evidence of this.
If you ask our 5 starters who they would rather pitch to, I wonder who they would pick? I can't say.
Next year, unless Montero is total suck for the rest of the year, Po will catch no more then 80 games. My guess is NJs option won't be picked up, and getting a full time DH (for 2011) seems wasteful.
[243] Yep. A fine defensive catcher who can't hit. That sounds about right...it sounds like a...back-up catcher.
Next year may very well be Posada's last in pinstripes. If he can only catch 80 games, he may not be worth keeping around. Would he really have value as a 125 OPS+ full time DH at age 40 or so?
[242] In [160], I did NOT weigh the variables. I simply listed them for comparison.
There are 2 sides to the equation for comparison. I simply LISTED ADVANTAGES on both sides of the equation without making a judgement.
Do you agree with the LIST?
Should there be somethine on either side of the equation that I missed?
Did I put something on the LIST that doesn't belong?
This is NOT about comparing Posada as a C vs Brains as a C.
Posada's O is in the game either way.
The equation is
Po(DH) and Brains (C)
vs
Po(C) and Thames/Miranda(DH)
Here it is again
Side (1) of the ADVANTAGES equaiton:
.... Offense gained: Miranda/Thames vs Brains
vs
Side (2) of the equaiton:
.... Defense gained: Brains vs Posada.
.... Speed gained: Brains vs Miranda/Thames
.... Handling/game calling: (unknown) Brains Vs Posada
.... Keeping Posada (who’s 38) fresher for NL and PS games, where he WILL Catch.
And as William pointed out, and I said with NJ, if we had a better DH, this would not be an issue.
[244] Well.... we are paying him $13m no matter what. Also, he will be VERY valuable helping Montero, as Girardi was valuable helping a young Posada. My guess is we have Posada, Montero AND Brains on the team as a Catcher, DH and BUC. It's actually a good fit.
This, of course, assumes Montero is ready for the show sometime B4 the ASB 2011.
[245] The list of factors looks more or less complete. That said---and on this i have also argued with RIYank tonight--I disagree with your formulation here:
The decision of whether to DH Posada or C Posada is (or should be) tied directly to the question of Posada as C v. Cervelli as C.
If Cervelli as C > Posada as C, then Cervelli should C and Posada should DH.
If Posada as C > Cervelli as C, then Posada should C and Thames/Miranda should DH.
[246] I meant he would not be worth keeping around AFTER next season. In other words, his value is bound largely (but not entirely) to his ability to catch, which gives the Yankees a significant advantage at the position. if he reduced to a more or less full time DH, even with occasional BUC duties, I am not sure he is worth investing in after next season.
[247] I have to disagree. Here are 2 positons of an ACTUAL LINEUP. The other 7 positions stay the same. The only variables are (C) and (DH).
The equation is
Po(DH) and Brains (C)
vs
Po(C) and Thames/Miranda(DH)
That's on the field. Real time.
The ONLY differences between Lineup #1 and Lineup #2 are what is listed above. And the question is, which is the better lineup, considering Offense, Defense and team management.
[248] My guess is 2011 is Po's last year. This assumes, of course, that Montero sticks. Brains may still be around and Romine may be up in 2012.
If Po REALLY wants to play, the Yanks could pull a 'Bernie' and keep him for $1m as a BUBUC, PH, DH, extra hand, towel boy. It's hard to say until the roster is defined. I think as a 41 yr old C, he has little value as a FA, except to maybe a Marlins/Nationals type team. Pudge found a job this year, so maybe Po can get another year... but I don't think with a team that plans to win. We simply might not be able to give him a roster spot.
But ya never know. If Po can still bend over AND post a .825 OPS or better in 2011, he may find work in 2012. But With Montero and Romine, it's hard to see him in Pinstripes.
[248] If you recall, the Banter only wanted to give Po 3 years (on his contract) which would have made this year his contract year. But he plauyed 'hardball' and got a 4th year out of Cashman.
Po has an .860 Career OPS, and was better last year (.885) and is better this year so far. It's possible that IF he accepts being a DH and doesn't have to work out as a Catcher... maybe he has some more .850 OPS years left. An .850 OPS is still top half of DHs, close to top third.
And if he can catch 40 games as a BUC, he has even more value.
The question is: Will he continue to hit.
Of course, he highest value is Catching, but .850 OPS is still better then average.
[249] And the question is, which is the better lineup, considering Offense, Defense and team management.
Yes, but this question is tied up almost entirely in the question of who is the more valuable catcher, Posada or Cervelli. If it's Posada, then you go with "Po(C) and Thames/Miranda(DH)." If it's Cervelli, you go with "Po(DH) and Brains (C)."
[250] If Po only asks for two years (or even better, is willing to go year-by-year), then I could see signing him as a DH/BUC. But even if he is a .850 OPS hitter next year, I'm not sure I invest three years in a 40 y.o. DH who is at best going to a better than average (but not outstanding) slugger.
Now, all this being said, I actually have a weird optimism that Posada has a bit of the Fisk in him, so that he'll keep hitting AND catching a good bit into his early 40s. In that case, he might be worth given a year or two too many to.
Like Jeter, his value is not just in hitting, but in providing exceptional offense at a premium position.