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Joba Chamberlain and the Yankee starters (save the rehabbing Hideki Matsui) take on Francisco Liriano and the Twins B-squad at Boss Field this afternoon at 1:15. The game is on YES and marks the spring debut of the WCBS radio team. I love baseball on the radio, but I’ve had a hard time stomaching John Sterling ever since Michael Kay jumped to TV. Still, let’s hope he gets to do this some 95 to 100 times during the regular season and 11 more times in October:

By the way, what ever happened to “no cheering in the press box?”

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The Yankees took their first loss of the spring this afternoon in the first game in which they faced an opponent’s major league starters. Twins win, 5-4.

Lineup:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
R – Cody Ransom (2B)
S – Nick Swisher (1B)
S – Jorge Posada (DH)
R – Xavier Nady (RF)
S – Melky Cabrera (LF)
R – Angel Berroa (SS)
R – Justin Leone (3B)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Subs: Juan Miranda (1B), Ramiro Peña (2B), Eduardo Nuñez (SS), Doug Bernier (3B), Austin Romine (C), Todd Linden (RF), Austin Jackson (CF), Kevin Russo (LF), John Rodriguez (DH)

Pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Eric Hacker, Anthony Claggett, Andrew Brackman, George Kontos, Wilkin De La Rosa, Steven Jackson

Opposition: The Twins’ starters minus Joe Mauer.

Big Hits:

Justin Leone (1-for-3) homered off Twins’ starter Scott Baker. Brett Gardner (2 for 2, BB, 2 SB) singled and doubled off Baker. Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher were both 2-for-3 with a pair of singles.

Who Pitched Well:

Ian Kennedy struck out three in his two scoreless innings while allowing just two baserunners on a walk and a single. Anthony Claggett pitched two scoreless innings of his own, stranding two inherited runners in the fourth and allowing just one of his own on a single.

Who Didn’t:

Eric Hacker failed to get an out in the fourth, giving up a run on three hits before getting pulled in favor of Claggett. He also walked two men in the third. George Kontos blew the save in the seventh by allowing a run on three hits. Wilkin De La Rosa gave up two runs on two walks and two singles in the eighth before Steven Jackson was brought in to get the last out.

Battles:

In a game they both started Brett Gardner (who got the nod in center) went 2-for-2 with a double, a walk, and two stolen bases, while Melky Cabrera (starting in left) went 0 for 3 and stranded three runners. Gardner led off the game with a single, stole second, and scored on a Cody Ransom single. That after homering leading off the first game of the schedule. Who does he think he is, Rickey Henderson? Nick Swisher went 2-for-3.

Alex and Diane have both been kind enough to mention this already, but I just wanted to post a reminder that I will be appearing at the Yogi Berra Museum & Learning Center this Sunday at 2pm along with Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein, Christina Kahrl, Jay Jaffe, and Neil deMause. This is ostensibly to promote Baseball Prospectus 2009, which we all contributed to (Banter readers note that the Yankees team essay was among my contributions), but for you it’s $6 (or free if you buy a book) to see Yogi’s museum and pepper some of the best baseball minds on the net with questions for two hours.

If you can’t make it on Sunday, I’ll also be at the 18th St. Barnes & Nobel in Manhattan on Thursday March 12 and the Rutgers University Bookstore in New Brunswick, NJ on Thursday March 26.

The Yanks made their home and broadcast debut with a 5-1 win over the Rays this afternoon. They’ve now won their first two spring games by a combined score of 11-2.

Lineup:

L – Johnny Damon (LF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
R – Xavier Nady (RF)
S – Jorge Posada (DH)
R – Jose Molina (C)
S – Melky Cabrera (CF)

Subs: Cody Ransom (1B), Angel Berroa (2B), Eduardo Nuñez (SS), Doug Bernier (3B), Francisco Cervelli (C), Shelley Duncan (RF), Brett Gardner (CF), Colin Curtis (LF), Kyle Anson (DH)

Pitchers: Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, J.B. Cox, Mark Melancon, Jonathan Albaladejo

Opposition: Carl Crawford and spare parts

Big Hits:

Jorge Posada (2-for-2) hit the first pitch he saw this spring into the right field bleachers, then hit a 405-foot RBI ground rule double in his next at-bat that likely would have gone out to dead center if not for a strong head wind. Shelley Duncan (1-for-1) crushalated a Calvin Medlock pitch in the seventh, dropping a three-run homer into the pond beyond the left field fence. Together, Posada and Duncan drove in all five Yankee runs.

Who Pitched Well:

Everyone. The seven Yankee pitchers didn’t allow an extra base hit and walked only one man. The one Rays run came off J.B. Cox in the seventh on a pair of infield singles and a stolen base. Phil Hughes issued the one walk and hit two other batters in his two innings, but he wasn’t wild. Both HBPs came when pitches inside and under the hands clipped the jersey of a left-handed batter, and the walk was on a full count. Hughes actually looked to be throwing a lot of strikes (Pete Abe had him throwing 67 percent of 33 pitches for strikes). He used his changeup and curveball, didn’t allow a hit, broke two bats, and struck out two men with fastballs (sitting around 92 miles per hour per the YES gun), one of whom was Carl Crawford, who went down on three pitches.

Nice Plays:

Robinson Cano made a nice ranging play on a hopper far to his left. Mark Teixeira saved a wild throw by Alex Rodriguez and got the out call, though his foot appeared to leave the bag before the catch.

Battles:

Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner both went 0-for-2, but Melky’s two were weak groundouts, while Gardner was robbed of a double in the right field gap in his second trip when the swirling winds blew his hit back toward a diving Ray Sadler in center. Gardner tried to bunt for a hit in his first at-bat, but didn’t get the ball far enough away from home plate and was easily thrown out by former Yankee farmhand Michel Hernandez. Gardner also showed good range in the field. Xavier Nady hit a ground rule double down the right-field line in two at-bats. Phil Coke pitched two scoreless innings, suggesting he might be in the mix for the long-man position, which would be a good solution to that problem. Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo both pitched perfect innings late in the game. Melancon got two outs on the ground and the third by strikeout, but didn’t look terribly impressive to me, pitching deep into counts and sitting around 90-91 mph with his fastball. Albaladejo got two of three outs on the ground and had a few extra ticks on the gun.

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The Yankees are running out their starters (save the rehabbing Hideki Matsui) for their first home game of the spring today at 1:15 against the Rays. This will also be the first televised Yankee game of the spring. Unfortunately, my laptop died last week and the new one’s still on order, so my traditional liveblog will have to wait until later in the spring schedule.

In the meantime, you can listen to my appearance on Kenrick Thomas’s Real Sports Talk podcast from last night here (I’m the first guest).

Also, with the arrival of the games, we here at the Banter have finally put together some guidelines for commenting on this site. The post below, which will be permanently linked on the sidebar, includes instructions on using HTML codes in your posts, but is also a code of conduct (adapted from that of our longtime colleague Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts).  We ask that everyone, new and old, familiarize themselves with these guidelines so as to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve become accustomed to here at Bronx Banter.

The Yankees kicked off their exhibition schedule this afternoon with an easy 6-1 win on the road against the Blue Jays, though neither team played their full set of starters.

Lineup:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
R – Shelley Duncan (DH)
L – Juan Miranda (1B)
S – Todd Linden (LF)
R – Kevin Cash (C)

Subs: Justin Leone (1B), Cody Ransom (2B), Ramiro Peña (SS), Kevin Russo (3B), P.J. Pilittere (C), Colin Curtis (RF), Austin Jackson (CF), John Rodriguez (LF), Jesus Montero (DH)

Pitchers: Brett Tomko, Jose Veras, Dan Giese, Kei Igawa, Christian Garcia, Michael Dunn, Steven Jackson, David Robertson

Opposition: The Jay’s B-squad

Big Hits:

Brett Gardner (1-for-3) led off the game by hitting Brett Cecil’s second pitch over the right-field wall. Alex Rodriguez (1-for-1, 2 BBs) added a two-run jack off Rickey Romero in the fourth. Robinson Cano and Austin Jackson (both 1-for-2) both doubled. Todd Linden (1-for-3) picked up an RBI single against B.J. Ryan. Kevin Cash went 2-for-3 and stole a base.

Who Pitched Well:

Everyone except Jose Veras. The other seven pitchers combined for eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk.

Who Didn’t:

Jose Veras gave up the lone Blue Jay run in the third on a one-out John McDonald double, a hit batsman, a wild pitch, and a sac fly. He then walked two batters before getting out of the inning.

Battles:

Gardner‘s home run was no small thing. Last year he hit just three home runs between the minors and majors, spring training included. Cecil, meanwhile, allowed just six in 118 1/3 innings. Kevin Long’s been working with Gardner to get his legs into his swing. If Gardner can hit for power this spring, he’ll take the center field job with ease. His throwing error came on a strong throw to the plate that just happened to hit the runner. Swisher affirmed his ability to reach base at a high rate by drawing two walks, but didn’t hit a ball fair in three trips, striking out in his other turn at-bat. Veras put himself in an early hole in the bullpen battle, but David Robertson was also wild in his one inning of work (issuing a walk and uncorking a wild pitch). Pete Abe reports that Robertson loaded the bases in the ninth. I assume two of the Yankees’ other three errors (one by Leone, the other two on throws by Peña and Russo) were involved. Veras and Robertson did combine for four of the Yankees’ seven strikeouts, but  Steven Jackson was perfect, getting two groundouts and a strikeout.

More:

• Melky Cabrera has switched to Bobby Abreu’s old number 53.
• I’ll be on Kenrick Thomas’s Real Sports Talk podcast tonight at 10pm. Give a listen.

The Yankees start their spring schedule this afternoon in Dunedin, where they’ll face the Blue Jays starting at 1:05. The game won’t be televised, on the radio, or even available via on-line gamecast, but you can follow it via Peter Abraham’s liveblog over at LoHud. Joe Girardi is running out his B-team, save for the three WBC participants (Jeter, Cano, and Alex Rodriguez). Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher get the starts in center and right. Brett Tomko will take the mound to start.

Check back this afternoon for my recap of the game.

Meanwhile, here’s a recap of some of the things we’ve learned since camp opened:

Injuries: There’s been nothing but good news on the four recovering Yankees. Chien-Ming Wang has experienced no pain in his foot. Jorge Posada has been stretching out his arm without discomfort. Hideki Matsui and Mariano Rivera are coming along more slowly, but without cause for concern. In Rivera’s case, the slow progression is typical of how he gets ready in the spring, as he tends to throw most of his spring innings in the second half of March.

Aches and Pains: Edwar Ramirez has been shut down for a few days with shoulder bursitis. Otherwise, there have just been a few sore hamstrings (Jeter, Marte) and a couple of stomach flues (Sabathia, Cervelli), but nothing thus far that has effected a player’s availability for more than a day or two.

Lineup: Mark Teixeira will bat third ahead of Alex Rodriguez. Hideki Matsui will be the DH making only “emergency” appearances in the field. Neither of these things were unexpected.

Rotation: Joe Girardi just announced today that the opening rotation, barring injury, will be Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain. That order properly staggers the lefties and pitching styles the five starters and puts Chamberlain in the five spot where he can be skipped occasionally to keep his innings down. That said, Girardi also said the plan is for Chamberlain to make about 30 starts. At an average of six innings a start, that would be 180 innings–too many coming off a seasons of 112 1/3 in 2007 and 100 1/3 last year.

Bullpen: Really, the only thing we’ve learned about the ‘pen is that Phil Coke will not be starting, but will indeed be in the mix as a reliever. That doesn’t mean he’s made the team (though he has an excellent chance of doing so), only that the Yankees have recognized where he’s most valuable to them. We’ve also been told the Yankees intend to take a long reliever north, but I think that would be a mistake and will believe it when I see it.

Finally, there was one piece of news that was bigger than baseball, that being Jason Johnson’s optical cancer. After experiencing blury vision, Johnson got himself checked and caught the tumor early enough that his doctors were able to quickly get the disease under control, delaying his arrival to camp only briefly. Johnson’s disease doesn’t change the fact that he has no business being in camp with the Yankees, but while I won’t be rooting for him on the field, I’ll be rooting hard for him off of it. You can read more on Johnson from my good friend, optical cancer survivor Steven Goldman.

Unlike the center-field battle in which the prize is a full-time starting job with the loser likely to be banished to Triple-A, the far end of the bench, or perhaps even another organization, the battle between Swisher and Nady is simply over who will have the upper hand in right field. Regardless of the outcome this spring, both are likely to make more than 400 plate appearances this year.

That said, Nady, who was acquired at the trading deadline last year and finished the season as the Yankees’ left fielder, entered camp as Bobby Abreu’s successor in right field. It will be up to Nick Swisher, acquired in a November trade with the White Sox, to prove to Joe Girardi and his staff that he is the superior option for right field, which, truth be told, he is.

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With the Grapefruit League schedule kicking off on Wednesday, I wanted to take these last two day of inaction to take a look at the key position battles being waged in Yankee camp. I’ll start today with the most significant: the center-field battle between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner.

First the tale of the tape:

Cabrera is theoretically the incumbent, but Gardner started in center in 12 of the Yankees’ last 15 games of 2008 after Cabrera effectively lost the center field job in early August. Cabrera made just five starts in center after August 3 and was even demoted to Triple-A for three weeks and recalled only after rosters expanded in September. In that sense, Gardner is the incumbent, but really, despite the large discrepancy in their major league service time, neither player entered camp with the upper hand in this battle.

This battle is topsy-turvy in other ways. For example, the less experienced Gardner is the win-now player given his minor league promise of solid on-base numbers (.389 mL career OBP), excellent defense, and spectacular speed on the bases (153 minor league stolen bases at an 83% success rate, 13 for 14 on the bases in the majors). Meanwhile, the appeal of Cabrera, the experienced major leaguer, is his potential. Cabrera has shown flashes of power at the plate, particularly early last season when he slugged .505 with six homers through May 4. Cabrera is unlikely to ever develop into a serious home-run threat, but Gardner is a pure slap hitter, with just nine career home runs as a pro and an isolated slugging in the minors of just .094. Gardner seems unlikely to ever hit for much power, but there remains some hope that Cabrera, who is a year younger, may yet blossom into a complete hitter.

The problem is that Cabrera’s performance on the field has been heading in the opposite direction. Cabrera hit .280/.360/.391 as a rookie left fielder in 2006, displaying solid plate discipline for a 21-year-old as well as some doubles power (26 in 524 PA) and falling just short of a league-average performance overall. In 2007, however, his plate discipline melted away without a corresponding increase in power (.273/.327/.391), and last year, after that hot start, he simply stopped hitting, batting .235/.280/.286 from May 5 through the end of the season, a line worse than Gardner’s seemingly pathetic rookie showing.

Given that Gardner was just breaking into the majors last year, been reliably productive in the minors, and seemed to heat up at the end of last season, hitting .294/.333/.412 in 73 PA his second of two major league stints, there’s every reason to believe that Gardner will significantly improve on his overall major league line if given the chance this season, but given Cabrera’s steady regression, there are far fewer reasons to continue to believe in Melky. It’s not as though Melky does anything else better than Gardner. Melky can steal bases, but he might steal 15, while Gardner could easily steal more than 50 and lead the league if he starts every day, and he’ll do it at a higher success rate than Cabrera’s. Melky has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, but Gardner, thanks in part to his superior speed, is going to turn more balls into outs in center, just as he’s likely to make fewer outs at the plate.

According to Dave Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range, Melky was the best defensive left fielder in baseball in 2006 but has displayed merely average range in center over the last two years. Gardner did not play enough to register on Pinto’s major league-only system, but per Ultimate Zone Rating, Gardner’s defense in center was worth  9.1 runs to Melky’s pedestrian 0.6 last year, a remarkable stat given that Gardner played just 160 2/3 innings in center for the Yankees, while Melky played 973 2/3. Of course, the small sample warnings about Gardner’s major league statistics are particularly acute when it comes to fielding, both because he spent a significant chunk of his first major league stint in left, and because fielding stats are so suspect to start with. It would be cherry-picking to write off Gardner’s poor performance at the plate in the majors as a small sample while emphasizing his absurd advantage over Cabrera in UZR. That said, what I saw watching the games supported the statistics’ assertion that Gardner has the superior range in center. Cabrera still has the better arm, but not by as much as one might think;  Gardner recorded four assists in his 22 major league games in center, showing a strong and accurate throwing arm that opposing runners would be ill-advised to test.

So Melky’s case comes down to power and potential, and it seems unlikely that he has shown enough of either to outweigh Gardner’s advantages on the bases, in the field, and in getting on-base. Melky’s 2008 season cracked the lenses of the rose-colored glasses that looked at his first two seasons and saw shades of fellow switch-hitting center fielder Bernie Williams’ early-career struggles. Bernie didn’t really start to come on until his age-25 season, which would give Cabrera another year, but it’s hard now look at the stocky, stumbling Cabrera and see any resemblance to the fawn-like awkwardness of the blossoming Bernie.

Hitting coach Kevin Long seems to believe that he can get Gardner to hit with doubles power by increasing the involvement of Gardner’s lower body in his swing. If Gardner shows any signs of proving Long right this spring, the job should be his. The catch is that, due to Cabrera’s pennant-race demotion last year, Melky is now out of options, meaning the Yankees would have to either keep him on the 25-man roster as a fifth outfielder (a platoon with Gardner wouldn’t work–Melky hit just .213/.279/.299 against lefties last year and has hit just .251/.319/.329 against southpaws in his major league career, while Gardner actually had a reverse split in Triple-A last year), or expose him to waivers in an attempt to outright him to Scranton. The latter would almost surely result in Cabrera being claimed by another team. The Yankees avoided arbitration by signing Cabrera to a $1.4 million contract last month, which would seem to strongly indicate that the Yankees have no intention of divesting themselves of Cabrera, but as a fifth-outfielder, Cabrera would be  a drain on the roster and would stand little chance of restarting his development. Then again, perhaps that $1.4 million price tag is just enough to prevent the sort of team that might make a claim on Cabrera from doing so. If Cabrera can’t win the center field job in camp, that may be a chance the Yankees have to take, particularly with Austin Jackson headed for Triple-A already having already unseated Cabrera as the team’s Center Fielder of the Future.

Alex and Diane have done such a great job covering the Alex Rodriguez fiasco that I’ve been loathe to chime in with my, largely identical, reactions, but in light of Rodriguez’s confession to Peter Gammons last week, I wanted to take a look at the seasons during which Rodriguez admitted he had experimented with banned substances to see what impact, if any, those substances had on his on-field performance. The result was an article published over at SI.com at the end of last week.

Spoiler alert:

. . . if he is indeed telling the truth about his drug use being limited to his three years in Texas, the only noticeable benefit that Rodriguez derived from his experimentations with banned substances was his ability to play 485 of the Rangers’ 486 games during his three years with the club. That’s no small thing. There are some who believe that the most undervalued statistic in baseball is games played. It’s irrefutable that Rodriguez’s ability to take the field every day as a Ranger enabled him to put up the remarkable counting stats he compiled in a Texas uniform, chief among them his 57 home runs in 2002. Still, there’s no evidence that the drugs made him any more powerful, and significant evidence that his rate of production actually declined during what he claims were his doping years.

Meanwhile, feel free to use this post as a disussion thread for Alex Rodriguez’s Tampa press conference set to begin at 1:30 pm today.

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A year ago, the Yankees entered camp with a new manager and coaching staff, but a roster that barely differed from one they took into the 2007 playoffs. Having spent this past October at home while several of their most expensive player contracts expired (including those of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, and Carl Pavano), the Yankees enter spring training 2009 with a new look. Just 19 of the 25 spots on the Opening Day roster appear set, and of those 19, four are filled by players acquired this offseason, while two others are filled by players acquired at last year’s trading deadline. The 19 men who will fill those spots are:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Xavier Nady (R)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

S – Nick Swisher (OF/1B)
S – Melky Cabrera (OF)
R – Jose Molina (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – Chien-Ming Wang
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
R – Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Brian Bruney
L – Damaso Marte

Even among these 19, there are battles to be waged. Xavier Nady, who was acquired along with Damaso Marte in a trade with the Pirates at last year’s deadline, enters camp as the intended successor to Bobby Abreu in right field, but Nick Swisher, acquired from the White Sox in a mid-November trade, is the superior player and seems likely to open the season as no worse than the strong-side of a right-field platoon with Nady provided he can prove in camp that his poor 2008 campaign was a fluke.

Similarly, Melky Cabrera is only among the 19 above because he’s out of options. I didn’t list him as the starting center fielder because Cabrera will spend spring training engaged trying to reclaim the middle pasture from Brett Gardner. It’s not entirely out of the question for Gardner to win that battle in a landslide and for the Yankees to spend the final weeks of spring training weighing the risks of trading or outrighting their former Center Fielder of the Future.

Thus it’s with Gardner that I begin my sixth annual look at the Yankees campers. The Yankees will fill the six vacant spots on their Opening Day roster from among the 45 players below, most likely by selecting a pair of position players (a utility infielder and either Gardner or a third catcher) and four relievers.

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I’ve posted some version of this chart twice before, but now that the Yankees have wrapped up their arbitration cases, I thought I’d update it one last time, adding Andy Pettitte’s new deal and the 2008 dollars spent on LaTroy Hawkins, which I erroneously left out of my previous two bits of accounting.

Note that I’m assuming that Pettitte will achieve all of his bonuses (which he will if he stays off the DL and throws 210 innings). As for Hawkins, the Yankees traded him to the Astros at the trading deadline last year and picked up a “significant portion” of his remaining salary of the deal. In the absence of the specific numbers, I’m assuming they paid all of his $3.75 million salary last year. Most likely the bonuses Pettitte fails to reach (2009 dollars) will be balanced out by the portion of Hawkins’ 2008 salary paid by the Astros (2008  dollars). The chart doesn’t include service-time increases to pre-arbitration players such as Joba Chamberlain and the middle relievers, but those will likely total less than a million dollars.

all costs in millions of dollars; *estimated prorated portion of 2008 salary

So the end result of all of the Yankees’ offseason spending is a roughly $19 million increase in payroll. Of course, the Yankees have hidden that increase by shifting 14 million of the dollars owed to CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira this year into their signing bonuses, which the club doesn’t count as payroll, but I do (all figures above include any relevant portions of signing bonuses).

Here’s the result of that $19 million increase (ages as of April 15 in parentheses):

• Mark Teixeira (29) replaces Jason Giambi (38)
• CC Sabathia (28) replaces Mike Mussina (40)
• A.J. Burnett (32) replaces Carl Pavano (33)
• Xavier Nady (30) replaces Bobby Abreu (35)
• Nick Swisher (28) replaces Wilson Betemit (27)
• Damaso Marte (34)  replaces Kyle Farnsworth (33)

Not bad at all.

It sure took them long enough, but the Yankees finally came to terms with Andy Pettitte yesterday, re-signing the veteran lefty to a one-year deal with a base salary of $5.5 million and incentives that could make the deal worth as much as $12 million. With that, the Yankees have the final piece of their 2009 rotation in place. Here’s a quick look at the Yankees’ projected starting five along with my thoroughly un-scientific innings and ERA projections for each pitcher:

Quibble with those projections however you want, but consider what they add up to: 975 innings of a 3.73 ERA. Last year the collected Yankee starters–that is every pitcher who started for the team all year, not just the top five–combined for just 898 1/3 innings and a 4.58 ERA. Meanwhile, team that got the best performance out of it’s starting pitchers in 2008 was the Toronto Blue Jays, whose starters combined for 1,012 2/3 innings of a 3.72 ERA. Given that, the Yankees could have the best rotation in baseball even with that underwhelming performance from A.J. Burnett, average performances from Pettitte and Wang, and the limit placed on Chamberlain’s innings total. The catch is that their two top rivals for baseball’s best rotation are the Rays (with David Price taking over for Edwin Jackson) and Red Sox.

Note that I expect Chamberlain, not Pettitte, to be the Yankees’ fifth starter because of the limit the Yankees will need to place on his innings. Chamberlain threw 100 1/3 innings last year. Tom Verducci’s Rule of 30 would suggest a cap of 130 innings this year, but I expect the Yankees’ cap to be around 150 frames, and for Chamberlain to surpass that slighly due to a solid performance. The one remaining flaw in Chamberlain’s game is an inefficiency stemming from his being both a strikeout pitcher and one who walked 3.5 men per nine innings last year. That inneficiency will likely limit him to an average of six innings per start (which is exactly what he averaged in the nine starts prior to his shoulder injury last year). At that rate, he could make 26 starts this year and still have thrown just 156 innings. If the Yankees keep him in the fifth spot and use the odd off-day to skip his turn, he should come in right on target.

Meanwhile, with Pettitte having now rounded out the rotation, Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves become replacement starters rather than potential fifth-starters. That’s good news for the Yankees as there’s a decent chance that at least one of the pitchers in the chart above will wind up throwing as many as 100 innings less than I’ve projected for him due to injury. Aceves is a classic sixth starter, a crafty, junkballing righty who relies heavily on his defense and staying one pitch ahead of the hitter. In scout speak, Aceves has great pitchability, but not much stuff. He’s not far removed from the pitcher he’s replacing in the organization, Darrell Rasner, and is thus better suited as a replacement than one of the organization’s top five starters.

Hughes, of course, is still a top prospect, but even before Pettitte signed, I felt that Hughes needed to start the year in Triple-A and spend a couple of months just getting his legs under him and his confidence up so that he could return to the majors with some momentum rather than start the year trying once again to prove he deserved to break camp with the big club. Remember, Hughes has made just two major league starts since last April, and while he was excellent in the second of those two, essentially beating A.J. Burnett head-to-head (though Jose Veras wound up with the win), it came in late September against a long-since eliminated Blue Jays team. Hughes developed a strong cut fastball while rehabbing his broken rib last year and pitched well, if inconsistently, in the Arizona Fall League. With Pettitte in place, Phil can now build on those two developments at Triple-A in the hope of becoming a mid-season injury replacement (I didn’t write “for Burnett,” but I thought it) and forcing Joe Girardi to make a tough decision in the second half. Remember, Hughes won’t be 23 until last June. He still has plenty of time to make the transition from Triple-A to the majors.

While I’m on the topic, I might as well address Ian Kennedy. I don’t think Kennedy, who is a year and a half Hughes’ senior, was ever going to be in the picture for the big league rotation this spring. He did enough to discourage Girardi and the team last year that he wasn’t even brought back as a September call-up. Kennedy needs to spend the year at Scranton letting his pitching do the talking and hoping for a chance to make his case for the 2010 rotation in September. The good news on Kennedy is that he supposedly found a new way to throw his curve after working with Scranton pitching coach Rafael Chaves last year and dominated the Puerto Rican winter league with the pitch. Kennedy’s big problem last year was his refusal/inability to use his curve in his major league stints, making him a very hittable two-pitch fastball/changeup pitcher without much heat on his heater and a resulting tendency to shy away from contact. If the improvement in his curve proves sustainable, he may well revive his prospect status, making the A.J. Burnett contract all the more regrettable for expensively clogging up the rotation.

Still, taking the short-term view, it’s hard to complain about the Yankees’ top five starters entering the season. The Yankees haven’t had an Opening Day rotation this strong since they were making annual trips to the World Series. They’ve paid a lot for the priviledge, but it just might pay off.

My latest for SI.com looks at the Braves’ new rotation in the wake of the Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami signings, including a scouting report on the 33-year-old Japanese import. Toward the end, I summarize the remaining free agent market for starting pitchers in two paragraphs:

After [Oliver] Perez and [Ben] Sheets, there’s only a handful of veterans that could be considered remotely reliable signings. That group includes Andy Pettitte, who continues to play chicken with the Yankees over a one-year deal, Paul Byrd, Randy Wolf, whose name frequently surfaces as a back-up option, Braden Looper and Jon Garland. Of those five, however, only Looper posted an ERA better than league average last year.

Beyond that group there’s a series of bad bets, be it on aging stars who’d be better off retiring (Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Kenny Rogers, Orlando Hernandez), the perpetually injured (Jason Jennings, Mark Mulder, Bartolo Colon), roster fillers (Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson, Josh Fogg, Josh Towers) or assorted castoffs who will be lucky to land a non-roster invitation to camp (Steve Trachsel, Jeff Weaver, Kip Wells, Mark Redman, Matt Belisle, Esteban Loaiza, Kris Benson).

I realize now I left Odalis Perez and Jon Lieber out of the list of roster fillers and failed to find a place for Freddy Garcia. Nonetheless, that’s about it. In fact, you can cross Prior off the list, as he’s landed back with the Padres on a minor league deal. So, do you think the dearth of alternatives gives Pettitte any leverage over the Yanks? Should they peel off and sign Ben Sheets or Braden Looper before they’re forced to overpay for one of the next five or turn to one of the bad bets? Or should they walk away now and let Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes, and company fight it out over the fifth spot in the rotation?

When I first started following the Yankees, their lineup began with Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly, and Dave Winfield. Though Winfield was my favorite player, Mattingly was the most popular, and Randolph was the two-time World Champion veteran, Rickey Henderson likely did more to cultivate my love of baseball than any of the other three. Time and again, Rickey would lead off the game with a walk or a single, steal second, move to third on a productive out by Randolph, and score on a single or sac fly by Mattingly or Winfield. The exceptions were when Rickey would lead off the game with a homer, something he did 81 times in his career, or when he’d steal both second and third, letting Randolph drive him in. In 596 games as a Yankee, Henderson scored 513 runs, drew 406 walks, and stole 326 bases.

Fourteen years after Henderson was traded back to the A’s, Rickey was playing for the Newark Bears, the independent Altantic League team owned by his former Yankee teammate Rick Cerone. I remember reading that Rickey’s monthly salary from the Bears didn’t even cover the rent for the Manhattan apartment he was living in at the time. Rickey was ostensibly playing to get one more shot at the major leagues, but he had already set career records in stolen bases, runs, and walks, and owned 3,040 major league hits. Though he did finish the 2003 season by playing his final 30 major league games for the Dodgers, Rickey was playing to play, just as he did two years later with the San Diego Surf Dawgs.

One weekend in July of 2003, I went with a friend’s brother’s bachelor party to see Rickey play for the Bears against the Mitch Williams-managed Atlantic City Surf. Rickey was having a ball. Before the game he took time out to sign autographs along the first base line.

During the top of the first he chatted and joked with the fans along the left field line between pitches.

Then he led off the bottom of the first.

Just as he had for the Yankees, Rickey walked . . .

Stole second . . .

. . . moved to third on the catcher’s errant throw, and, following a walk to the second-place hitter, scored on a fielder’s choice to the shortstop.

Three batters into the game, I had already gotten my money’s worth.

Not long after that game, Henderson signed with the Dodgers. On September 13, 2003, Henderson pinch-hit for Guillermo Mota in the seventh inning of a game between the Dodgers and Giants at Dodger Stadium. Rickey was hit by a pitch, moved to second on a bunt, to third on a groundout, and scored on a Shawn Green single. He was then replaced by Paul Quantrill, who came in to pitch the next inning. The last thing Rickey Henderson ever did in the major leagues was score a run. As it should have been.

all photographs (c) Clifford J. Corcoran; click to enlarge

Are the Boston Red Sox filling out their roster or casting a Celebrity Rehab spin-off focused on sports injuries?
. . .
It could be that they’re just being smart. Those four players are each signed to incentive-laden one-year contracts that will cost the Red Sox a base total of $12.2 million, or $4.25 million less than the Yankees will pay the injury-prone A.J. Burnett in the first year of his five-year contract (or, to turn the tables on Boston, just $200,000 more than they’ll pay the rapidly-aging Mike Lowell in the second year of his three-year contract).

Read the rest of my take on the Sox recent spate of roster moves (as well as the Trevor Hoffman-to-Milwaukee deal) on SI.com.

Don’t look now, but the Rays have done an excellent job of restocking on the cheap for another run in 2009. As I write in my new piece over on SI.com on the Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell deals:

[w]ith Price, Burrell and the Joyce/Perez platoon representing significant upgrades on Jackson, Floyd, Gross and assorted fill-ins, the Rays could very well repeat or even improve on their surprising 2008 showing, much the way the 1992 Braves surpassed their worst-to-first showing the previous year.

Indeed, with Upton, 24, having regained his home run stroke in the postseason following a year in which his power had been sapped by a torn labrum, Longoria entering his first full season after being named AL Rookie of the Year and Crawford looking to bounce back entering his walk year, the Rays could experience a significant increase in their run scoring in 2009, while a strong rookie season from Price, 23, would help balance out any regression experienced by the other starters. Meanwhile, having the right-handed Burrell in a lineup with fellow righty sluggers Upton and Longoria makes the Rays well-prepared for their impending AL East showdowns with lefty aces CC Sabathia of the Yankees and Jon Lester of the Red Sox following a season in which Tampa Bay struggled against lefty starters. Thus, in part due to their sizeable head-start, the Rays have kept pace with the Yankees’ $423.5 million spending spree at the low, low cost of $16 million.

The MLB Network launches this evening at 6pm (EST) and will celebrate by airing the unedited original broadcast of Don Larson’s perfect game (including original commercials!) at 7pm, the first time it has been shown to a mass audience since it happened 52 years ago. You can find the new network’s location in your channel lineup by using MLB’s channel locator here. Unfortunately, my TV has been on the fritz for a couple of days, so I’ll miss the whole shebang. Someone watch it and let me know what happens, will ya?

I take a look at the Brian Fuentes signing over at SI.com today and conclude that, while that’s all well and good, the Angels sure could use some more offense now that Mark Teixeira is a Yankee. Or, to use my own words:

If Angels fans want a cause to get behind, they should lobby their team to add a bat so that Fuentes, Arredondo and company actually have some leads to protect. By signing Fuentes, the Angels have filled their cart, but they’re still in need of a horse.

I explore the similarities between the Yankee and Red Sox rotations in my new piece analyzing Boston’s deal with Brad Penny for SI.com. Check it out.