"A New York Treasure" --Village Voice

Nice Weather We’re Having

It is bone cold in New York. And it is raining.

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How they plan to play this weekend I don’t know.

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31 comments

1 Mattpat11   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:10 pm

The extra few days will give Girardi time to come to his sense and invent an injury to get Marte off the roster.

2 RagingTartabull   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:24 pm

ummm is anyone watching this "Floating Boy" on CNN??

3 Diane Firstman   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:31 pm

[2]

truly bizarre and scary ....

4 Just Fair   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:34 pm

I have a sudden urge for Jiffy Pop.

5 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:50 pm

According to LoHud;

Still in the interview room where Joe Girardi just announced that Freddy Guzman has been added to the roster in place of Eric Hinske.

This is a very odd move.

6 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:56 pm

[0] Bud and the rest of his friends in the billionnaire's club need to step away from the alter of the holy dollar for a minute and realize that baseball is meant for warm weather. Knock two weeks off the season and give us a world series finishing in early October.

[3] Apparently, it came down, but the kid wasn't in it?!?!

[5] I don't really think the offense needs the extra pop Hinske might add. But it sure could use another terror on the basepaths for those close-game, late-inning situations.

7 cult of basebaal   ~  Oct 15, 2009 3:58 pm

[5] Hopefully it means a Gritner start or two.

8 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:01 pm

[6] Another base stealing threat...for whom? So now the bench, once a strength, will feature now two back up catchers who can't hit a lick and two pinch runners and Hairston. The only way this makes even the remotest sense is if Gardner is going to start over Melky, but even in that case, doesn't that allow Melky to PR?

9 cult of basebaal   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:02 pm

Meanwhile, after rain Tuesday night, it'll be back in the 90's in the LA area tomorrow.

10 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:02 pm

[7] I agree. I also think that if you go with 14 or 15 position players, at least one of the benchers should be capable of actually pinch-hitting.

11 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:13 pm

[10] It seems Girardi has hinted pretty strongly that Gardy will start at least one game. And I think both he and Cervelli and/or Melky are guys who can hit off the bench. Certainly not a big drop off frim Hinske. But, hit for whom? Who do you need to pinch hit for in that lineup? Noone! But plenty of guys benefit from pinch runners, especially ones as fast as Guzman and Gardy.

12 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:29 pm

[11] If you PR, then you have someone to PH for later. If you start Molina (which seems inevitable), you can also start Posada at DH and be able to move him to C (Hinske can bat once for the P in the vacated DH spot). Melky or Gardy can be PH for. There will be about as many oportunities for a PH who can, say, smack the odd ball over the fence as there will be for multiple PRs to be employed.

And for the record, Cervelli is indeed a big drop-off offensively from anyone not named Molina.

Again, a bench of Cervelli, Molina, Guzman and Hairston (with the not starter of Melky/Gardy) is pretty much atrocius, and certainly imbalanced (all defense or speed, no pop).

13 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:38 pm

Finally, Girardi's reasoning--while sensible on an intuitive level--is spurious when compared to the evidence:

“We thought we could use another speed guy in this round. We’ve had some success doing those types of things late in the game, and in a seven-game series stuff could come up late in the game. We saw the games against Minnesota were very close and sometimes you can use a couple of pinch runners. If Gardy gets a start, then you don’t have a pinch runner (without Guzman). It just frees us up to do some more things.”

But the two close games against Minnesota were won because guys hit the damn ball over the fence, not because fleet-footed PRs scurried around the base paths.

Yes, having fast guys on the bench is a wonderful resource for late-close games. But there is no need for this to come at the expense of one or two guys who can hit HRs, which is also a nice resource for late-close games.

14 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:41 pm

[11] I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Seems odd to argue that your bench goes from balanced and OK to utter crap by subtracting Hinske. Not to mention setting up your bench or PHs to play for a PH homer when you have record-setting power from your starters. I never said Cervelli was comparable offensively to Posada, only that he can hit. He gives you nearly 80 points of BA over Hinske. Anyway, having one or two guys who can steal or go first to third is far more valuable and likely to actually happen that waiting around for Hinske to homer in a single at-bat, especially the way Giarardi manages. Finally, Posada will not start at DH and then move to C, as we have already seen. He will come into the game at C or PH and move to C when Burnett leaves the game.

15 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:43 pm

[13] "But the two close games against Minnesota were won because guys hit the damn ball over the fence..."

Yeah, and those guys were STARTERS. And, in Posada's case, if he weren't starting, he would be the PH!

16 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:48 pm

[15] Yes, but that does deny the fact that the speed guys contributed about nothing to the victories, but the HR guys did. ergo, I would rather carry another HR guy on the bench, rather than only speed and defense guys who, just about to a man, can't hit a lick.

17 monkeypants   ~  Oct 15, 2009 4:53 pm

[14] Seems odd to argue that your bench goes from balanced and OK to utter crap by subtracting Hinske.

That is true...it was already imbalanced by carrying two BUCs because of the perverse design to start Molina over Posada when AJ starts. So yes, the bench was already weak.

And Cervelli cannot really hit...at all. He may have BA, but look at his OPS compared to Hinske, and especially compared to Hinkse's splits v. RHP. There is no comparison. I like Cervelli...he can hit much better than Molina. But he is still an awful, awful offensive player.

Thus, I don't see the reason to drop the only bench player with pop in his bat, in order to accommodate multiple BUCs and multiple PRs (and an 11th pitcher who will probably never be used...but that is another story).

18 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 5:01 pm

[16] But the speed guys, particularly in the form of Gardy, contributed tremendously throughout the year by pinch running. You might remember one particular game against the Angels! And your point remains irrelevant: All the guys who contributed with HRs will either start or be available as PHers.

[17] .298 batting average in 94 ABs = awful offensive player?! That's crazy talk. Seriously.

19 RIYank   ~  Oct 15, 2009 6:37 pm

1. The balloon kid was found. He never went up in the balloon after all.
2. Hinske was not exactly MVP runner-up in the DS. I doubt he'd be much use in the ALCS. I doubt Guzman will be much use either, but he'll be more fun.

20 RIYank   ~  Oct 15, 2009 6:37 pm

Oh, and
3. It's snowing here.

21 Raf   ~  Oct 15, 2009 7:26 pm

Yes, having fast guys on the bench is a wonderful resource for late-close games. But there is no need for this to come at the expense of one or two guys who can hit HRs, which is also a nice resource for late-close games.

True, but these guys are beating the Dave Roberts sb to death... You know how it goes with perceltopn and reality...

.298 batting average in 94 ABs = awful offensive player?! That’s crazy talk. Seriously.

No, it isn't crazy talk. .298 with no power nor walks. He's a singles hitter who strikes out too much.

22 RIYank   ~  Oct 15, 2009 7:44 pm

[21] I've had a little too much perceltopn, and it's loosened my grip on reality.

23 JeremyM   ~  Oct 15, 2009 8:01 pm

I have this bad feeling that Guzman is going to come in to steal a bag in big spot and get thrown out. He seems to be a good base-stealer, but he's no Rickey Henderson either. Either that or he'll be hitting in a big spot when a game goes to extras because he entered the game to run.

24 seamus   ~  Oct 15, 2009 8:11 pm

What value does Hinske give us? I really see nothing there for the ALCS. The only person you really PH for is Molina and if Molina is being PH for, then Posada is PHing for him. Hinske gives us nothing imo. Guzman at least gives us a late baserunner (oh and late baserunners = unlikely that you need to PH for him).

25 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 10:15 pm

[21] Yes, it is crazy, wrong, and borderline dumb. Cervelli is very young and inexperienced. Even if we agree he has shown no power (except for his big HR at a critical spot in the season against the Braves) and that he has struck out too much thus far, saying a guy who hits .300 in 100 at-bats is an awfull hitter and can't hit a lick is ridiculous.

26 a.O   ~  Oct 15, 2009 10:37 pm

[17, 21] By the way, and irrelevant to my previous posts, I'm willing to bet you guys will one day regret talking smack about Jorge's heir, the Yankees' next starting catcher.

27 Raf   ~  Oct 15, 2009 11:28 pm

[25] Not as ridiculous as judging a player based on batting average, one who has a hollow batting average at that.

[26] Romine, or Montero?

28 a.O   ~  Oct 16, 2009 12:44 am

[27] Oh, I didn't know there was a made-up stat called hollow batting average. Someone should fill that in, and they can do the hole in your head while they're at it.

29 Raf   ~  Oct 16, 2009 8:22 am

[28] no need to get defensive because you're too dumb to understand the concept of a hollow batting average. Whether you like it or not, Cervelli doesn't hit enough to be a regular. All he has is his glove. That he hit .300 in 100 at bats in the majors (with no power or walks, therefore the "hollow" comment) does not change that he hit .233 across 3 levels in the minors over 133 at-bats.

30 monkeypants   ~  Oct 16, 2009 8:34 am

[28] Simply put, batting average by itself does not correlate very strongly with offensive production. For example, see http://tinyurl.com/yfldaok

If you are unwilling to accept this basic premise, then there is no point in further discussion.

Getting lots of bases (slugging percentage) and not making outs (on base percentage) are far more important than batting average. So a player who hits around .300 but with no walks and no power is not all that valuable an offensive player--he has, colloquially, an empty or hollow batting average.

Cervelli had an on base percentage this year of .309, or put another way--he made an out about 69% of the times he came to bat. That is a very low figure. In fact, that put him ahead of only Molina, Ransom, Cash, and the pitchers who batted in interleague games. That's bad.

His slugging% was. .372. Again, this was better than only Ransom, Molina and the pitchers.

Cervelli was, overall, an atrocious offensive player this year, far less valuable than players with lower batting averages (like Hinske or, say, Swisher), but admittedly less atrocious than Molina.

31 a.O   ~  Oct 18, 2009 12:11 pm

And if you are unable to understand that a rookie who gets a hit in 30% of his at bats is not atrocious, then I agree there is no point in further discussion. He definitely was not one of the team's best hitters this year, but it is incorrect to say his offensive performance was atrocious.

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