Zombieland?
Posted on Nov 2, 2009 6:34 pm
By Cliff Corcoran
If the first two games of this World Series could have gone either way, the pitching matchups in Games Three and Four clearly favored the Yankees and, though they came close, it was the Phillies’ inability to break serve that has them one win away from failing in their bid to repeat as world champions.
Tonight’s pitching matchup calls for a Phillies victory that would send the Series back up the Turnpike with the Yankees leading 3-2. The Phillies haven’t lost a game started by Cliff Lee this postseason as Lee has been flat-out dominant. In four starts, he has tossed two complete games and twice struck out ten men without walking a batter, and doing both of those things in Game One of this World Series against the Yankees. In his four starts combined, Lee has walked just three, given up no home runs, and allowed just two earned runs, giving him a 0.54 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 10.0 K/BB. Opponents are hitting just .171/.192/.214 against Lee this postseason. His worst start saw him give up three runs, two of them unearned in 7 1/3 innings against the Rockies in Game Four of the NLDS. However good you think Cliff Lee has been, he’s been better.
That’s why the Phillies’ decision not to try to get three starts out of Lee drastically reduced their chances of repeating. Sure, Lee had never pitched on three-days’ rest before, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or that he wouldn’t succeed if he tried. One could argue that the Phils were better off getting two guaranteed wins from a fully-rested Lee than risking the second win by trying to milk a third out of him, but that only works if a) the Phillies can somehow win two other games (with a maximum of three games left in the series they’ve still won only Lee’s one start) and b) if they win tonight.
As I said, tonight’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean A.J. Burnett is chopped liver. Despite all of my complaints about his contract and his inconsistency (both of which remain problematic, the contract especially), Burnett has answered the bell every time the Yankees have rung it. He took his turn every five days during the regular season, surpassing 30 starts for just the third time in his career, and, save for a bad first inning in Game Five against the Angels and his usual assortment of walks, hit batters, and wild pitches (resulting in 18 free bases in 25 1/3 innings), has been nails in the postseason. Burnett’s Game Two start against the Phillies would have bested Lee’s Game Four outing against the Rockies, so there’s more than momentum to cling to for those hoping the Yankees will wrap things up tonight.
The old baseball saying is that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but sometimes in postseason series a heartbreaking loss that puts a team one game away from elimination really does carry over to the next game. Think of the Giants in the 2002 Series or the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS (both walking-dead Game Sevens by Dusty Baker managed teams), the Cardinals in the 1985 World Series after Don Denkinger’s call opened the door to their collapse in Game Six, or the Angels in the 1986 ALCS after Dave Henderson’s Game Six home run ripped the pennant out of their hands. The Red Sox got a lead in Game Seven of the 1986 World Series, but I doubt even they believed they’d hold it after their crushing loss in Game Six.
The Phillies weren’t on the verge of the championship last night, they weren’t even really on the verge of tying up the series (they never had a lead in the game), but Pedro Feliz’s game-tying home run and Brad Lidge’s return to perfection in the first two rounds of the postseason made them believe they had the game in hand with the score tied 4-4 and two outs in the top of the ninth. The crowd even thought they had the final out in that inning when Johnny Damon foul tipped a would-be strike three from Lidge early in his game-changing at-bat. The sequence of events that followed (Damon’s single and steal of second and third on a single pitch against the shift, Alex Rodriguez’s ringing go-ahead double, and Jorge Posada’s two-RBI single, which gave Mariano Rivera some unneeded breathing room) was legitimately heartbreaking for a Phillies team that was flush with excitement after tying up the game in the previous half inning. They’d be right to wonder if they couldn’t complete that comeback what hope have they of coming back in the Series.
At the risk of rousing the ghosts of 2004, I’d say none. The only question is whether or not this series goes back to the Bronx, like the ALCS did, or Burnett and company get it done tonight despite the presence of Lee.
Major League Baseball has yet to approve the Yankees’ request to replace the injured Melky Cabrera, who tore his hamstring running to first last night, but Brett Gardner would be in center field either way and is tonight. With Jose Molina catching Burnett yet again, that gives the Yankees a bottom five of Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, and Burnett. That against Cliff Lee. Molina hits lefties better than righties (.259/.306/.384 career) and Gardner is at least Melky’s equal (beyond the gains in speed and defense, he posted a .272 EqA this year to Melky’s .267). Still looking at that lineup, one suspects we’ll get a sixth game out of this Series after all.
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Update: Ramiro Peña replaces Melky on the roster. My guess is they don’t plan on using him.
Interesting choice.
[1] But we will see Hairston in the outfield. I really hope he doesn’t cause any trouble out there.
Pena, huh.
[3] When? Not in tonight’s starting lineup.
That bottom of the lineup does not inspire thoughts of champagne and goggles…
I think Pena could be used as a pinch runner. It’s hard to see him actually playing the infield. I wonder if they’d be willing to put him in the outfield — I’m guessing yes, and that that tipped the balance away from Guzman.
Scorecard printed. Workload, uhh, minimized.
Banter/Sterling/Waldman for me tonight. BTW, is there an FM station I can tune in?
[7] I thought all along that Peña made sense because the Yankees need another OF who can play the OF (Guzman apparently is not allowed in the OF). That means BUOF falls on Hairston, but that necessitated another IF. That meant Peña.
And yes, he can also PR well enough, which Girardi seems to favor and which has been lost now that Gritty Gardy is starting (is a Starty?).
Holiday here “Culture Day”! No work, just bagels, coffee and a big-screen tv at my inlaws in Yokohama..I really hope we can close it out today.
Poor Melky, hope he isn’t too down…
[7] RIYank, that twelfth pitcher is starting to gnaw at me more and more.
[11] Will you dance a happy jig if it’s Bruney on the mound to close out the win?
[11] I will dance a happy jig if they win, no matter who it is or how they do it.
[13] Please see [12].
I might have broken up the bottom of the lineup. In fact, I may have batted Molina 6th, figuring that he still only gets 2 ABs. At the very least, I would have flipped Molina and Gardner.
Meanwhile, Gardner should be under strict orders to bunt every time up.
[12] Of course we would.
Lee’s due for a stinker. That’s what I’m going with tonight. : ) And if Philly plans on being more aggressive, here’s to hoping they swing and miss at lot of first pitch balls.
[17] yep. In fact, I predict that he coughs up a couple runs early, perhaps with the help of some poor defense. They’ll get to him tonight just a little.
Then it will be up to AJ and his BFF to keep the bad guys in check.
Even a one run lead would be great, because it will put more and more pressure on Manuel to pull Lee for a PH. Otherwise, he’ll pitch ten innings and throw 140 pitches.
This is a very interesting game tonight, due to the fact that it’s an elimination game, but also cause of the questions surrounding the Yankees.
I have long been somewhat anti-Gardner, but I have some optimism about him today. I’d like to see this game end the series, though, especially if Melky is done for the week.
I really, really, really wish Teixeira would wake the **** up tonight, and just wreck the Phillies. I don’t know why; he’s fine but not my favorite player or anything. It’s just been frustrating to watch him – not as bad as Cano but that’s Cano and I’m used to it. God he’s been awful.
[13] Indeed, happy jig dancing is on the menu for any win..but of course I am hoping for Mariano.
Has Chuck Manuel taken any heat for yesterday? I can’t understand letting Lidge face A-Rod in that situation..looking closer at Lidge’s stats this year, he was just awful..that has to be a bigger blunder than starting Blanton?
[18] BFF? Best-fuckin-fastball?
[21] best friend forever, a la Molina.
I do think it’s a distinct possibility that Burnett mows them down again tonight. We all know he might melt down, but I actually think there’s a good chance he’ll be dealing. The thing about him is if he’s on it doesn’t matter if you faced him five times in the last week, he will strike mother***ers out.
Lee on the other hand has a chance – I’m agreeing with some of youse – to be gotten to. I wouldn’t predict it because you can’t – ah never mind. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not exactly Greg Maddux tonight. And even if he is, it doesn’t mean the Yankees won’t win.
Hensley Muelens hired as the SF Giants hitting coach! Ex-Yankee and Yakult Swallow, you still see his name on jerseys at Yakult games here! Congrats, Bam-Bam!
[22] Ah of course..I’m a bit slow with these things..
[23] We just need to get Lee out after the 6th..
[8] NYYfan22, have you tried watching Postseason.tv?
Go here
http://www.mlb.com/mediacenter/
and you’ll find a link. If you’ve never used any of the mlb.com videos I think you’ll have to download the video watching app., but once you’ve done that you can watch the game on your computer. It’s in some ways better than watching an actual television broadcast, but in some ways not as good.
Oh, and if for some reason you want the radio only, you can listen to John and Suzyn via that same site.
Could the Pena move mean they also may be considering pinch hitting for Cano, or benching him for Hairston at some point?
[13] a win is a win, but we’ve been waiting eight years to see mariano back up there to clinch a championship. i want him in there even if we’re up by 10.
[28] Maybe, but I doubt it. I think that it is more likely they are thinking about PR for someone, with Peña or Hairston—with Hairston going in the OF for Swisher if need be. That would still leave a BUIF.
Actually, I might have thought about sitting Cano for the start of the game and put in Hairston or Peña (RH v. LHP), with the thought of PH/double switch in the middle innings.
I have a question. In Cole Hamels New Era commercial, isn’t trying to get him to chase one outside what got him in to this mess?
hmmm. all the sudden I can’t post comments. glitch in WP, or my computer here?
[27] — 27!
Thanks for the tip. I have an mlb.com login, and often listen there.
At work, it’s always better for me to listen vs. watch, since I have to leave the computer to answer alarms, etc. Plus tonight I’ll be refreshing the banter methodically, and keeping score, too.
Game 5! Let’s make Rollins’ prediction come true, sort of.
[32] figured out what I was doing wrong. Idiot me.
[24] Good for Bam-Bam.
「３３」 That is SO cool that you are keeping score tonight :)
I am busting out the spiffy brackets for the remainder of the series..30mins to go, too excited now!
(Note to others: my wife just asked me why I was on the blog when the game hadn’t started yet..I showed her some of the pre-game Banter chat..she just shook her head and muttered something like “you guys are all children”…Surely, I am not the only one getting this reaction?)
[24] [34] That’s some sort of joke, right?
got a six pack in the fridge and the day off tomorrow, lets make this a good night
[35] It’s a children’s game.
Fortunately, my wife has her own childish pleasures.
Tim McCarver has done some research????
Or who was that talking? (I couldn’t see, long story.)
「３８」Indeed, I have caught my wife watching Ally Mcbeal online…shudder…
「４０」Animal charity?
[41] Oh good heavens. Grow up, woman.
I missed the last thread, but I sure hope there’s a lot of horsing around in the visitor’s dugout later.
Yeah, if you were a Philadelphian watching that last Fox segment, you’d pretty much be sticking your finger down your throat.
[44] what was it?
[45] Jeter lovefest, mainly.
I really DO like Alannis Morrisette, but she’s from Canada. WTF!!
[36] Not a joke:
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=43931
[47] Isn’t it ironic?
「４７」Loved it when she was on Curb Your Enthusiasm