“Fra-gee-lei” . . . that must be Italian!
Posted on Dec 18, 2009 2:50 am
By Cliff Corcoran
![2003 Topps Nick Johnson (Topps All-Star Rookie) [Note: this was Johnson's only regular issue Topps card as a Yankee, his 2004 card showed him in an Expos uniform.]](http://www.bronxbanterblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Johnson-Nick-2003.jpg "2003 Topps Nick Johnson (Topps All-Star Rookie) [Note: this was Johnson's only regular issue Topps card as a Yankee, his 2004 card showed him in an Expos uniform.]")
Mere days after Hideki Matsui agreed to join the Angels on a one-year contract worth $6 million, the Yankees have come to terms with Nick Johnson on a one-year deal worth a reported $5.75 million plus incentives to replace Matsui as their designated hitter. The decision to sign Johnson, so it seems to me, was less one the Yankees had made entering the offseason and more one that was made as a result of other decisions made by and about departing free agents Matsui and Johnny Damon.
Though many believe Matsui signed with the Angels because Halos manager Mike Scioscia promised him the opportunity to play left field once or twice a week (though, actually, Scioscia only promised him an opportunity in Spring Training to prove he could still play the field, which he likely can’t), and The Daily News‘ Mark Fiensand reported late last night that the Yankees opted not to resign Matsui primarily because of the state of his knees, I have another theory.
Based on a piece by Matsui’s agent Arn Tellem that appeared on the Huffington Post on Wednesday, I believe Matsui took the Angels’ offer without giving the Yankees a chance to match or beat it because he was afraid the Yankees, who had been focusing on negotiating with Johnny Damon, might either not make an offer (true if you believe Fiensand’s unnamed source), or might take enough time doing so that the Angels would rescind their offer. Here are the key passages from Tellem:
Hideki’s overriding concerns have always been winning and playing for a quality organization. Over his 17 seasons in pro ball, his only two teams have been the Yankees and the Yomiuri Giants. Each is the premier franchise in its respective league. Beyond the Yanks, his preferences were the Angels and the Boston Red Sox, two dominating franchises with superb players, coaches and management. But with David Ortiz entrenched as Boston’s everyday designated hitter, the Red Sox were never a real option.
[snip]
Hideki chose to accept Angel’s offer rather than wait for Yankees to decide whether they wanted to bring him back. Failure to act quickly might have caused L.A. to withdraw its offer and forced Hideki to sign with a weaker team, thus forfeiting a shot at another World Series. Conflicted, Hideki stayed up all Sunday night mulling his final move in this limited game of musical free-agent chairs. He didn’t want to be left standing.
Now, I realize that almost everything an agent says in public is spin, but I see no reason for Tellem to basically admit to being the first to blink in a game of contract chicken other than having actually done so.
The catch here is that, while the Yankees might have preferred to bring back Johnny Damon as their designated hitter (he’s clearly no longer qualified to play the field, either), Damon has been firm in his desire for a contract that comfortably exceeds Bobby Abreu’s two-year, $19 million re-up with the Angels in both years and annual salary. The Yankees have wisely balked at Damon’s demands, which suddenly left them searching for option C.
Enter Nick Johnson, the once and future Yankee. As an underpowered on-base machine, Johnson is a good fit as a replacement for Damon in the number-two hole in the Yankee lineup, and as an oft-injured, defensively challenged first baseman who hit just eight homers last year in 574 plate appearances, he was willing to take a one-year deal with a base salary even lower than Matsui’s.
That’s all well and good, but there are a lot of reasons to be underwhelmed if not outright dissatisfied with the Johnson signing. First and foremost among them is his fragility. Yes, Johnson’s on-base percentage of .426 was surpassed only by MVPs Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols among qualifying batters in 2009, but it’s getting into the batters’ box in the first place that has been the challenge for Johnson. The 133 games he played in this past season were the second most of his major league career and he played just 38 games over the previous two seasons combined.
Here’s a quick look at Johnson’s injury history:
- 1998: separated shoulder (out six weeks)
- 2000: unknown left hand/wrist injury (missed entire season)
- 2002: bone bruse in left wrist (missed three weeks)
- 2003: fractured right hand (missed two months)
- 2004: back (missed first two months); broken cheekbone (missed last six weeks)
- 2005: bone bruse in right heel (missed a month)
- 2006-7: broken right femur (suffered late September ’06, it wiped out his entire ’07 season)
- 2008: torn ligaments and tendons in wrist (ended season in mid-May)
- 2009: strained right hamstring (missed two weeks)
Johnson has had his share of fluke injuries, chief among them the foul ball that bounced back up and broke his cheekbone in 2004 and the broken leg he suffered in a collision with right fielder Austin Kearns in 2006, but the frequency and severity of his injuries is no fluke. Johnson is truly fragile and when he breaks he takes longer to heal than most players (to cite two recent examples, he was expected to return from his soft-tissue injury in 2008, but didn’t, and that broken leg, which kept him out of action for more than a calendar year, also took far longer to heal properly than was anticipated).
So, yes, Johnson’s on-base skills (.402 career OBP) would look mighty fine in the two hole, helping to set the table for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a good chance the Yankees will need someone else to fill that spot for a significant portion of the coming season, and if that person is Curtis Granderson (who would otherwise likely hit fifth behind Rodriguez), they’ll need someone else to take Granderson’s spot lower in the order.
The other concern about Johnson is that he slugged just .405 last year and hit just 13 home runs in 721 plate appearances over the last two seasons. Certainly being a lefty hitter in the New Yankee Stadium will help him get some Johnny Damon-style cheapies, but one wonders if his history of hand and wrist injuries, most crucially that soft-tissue injury in 2008 which took forever to heal, might have sapped his power for good. Johnson was never a big-time home-run threat, but in 2006, his best major league season, he slugged .520 with 23 homers and 46 doubles, numbers the Nick Johnson we saw in 2009 looked incapable of ever matching (and bear in mind that both of his home stadiums in 2009 rated as above average for lefty power hitters per the 2010 Bill James Handbook).
It’s being widely reported that the Johnson signing will end the Yankees’ pursuit of Damon, as well it should given Damon’s defensive limitations and the fact that, with Mark Teixeira in place, Johnson’s only position is DH. That doesn’t mean that the Yankees are set for 2010. One rumor that intrigues me concerns their interest in the similarly injury-prone Ben Sheets. Right now the Yankees’ rotation consists of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain (finally untethered by innings limits), and Phil Hughes (who will have an innings limit), with Chad Gaudin, who made some great strides with his slider after working with Dave Eiland late last year, lingering as a sixth starter/Hughes caddy. Looking at that and factoring in utility pitcher Alfredo Aceves and prospect Zach McAllister, who will start 2009 in Triple-A, I don’t feel that the Yankees need another starter. However, given the potential for injury in the rotation as assembled–particularly to the two kids, Pettitte, who will be 38 in June, and Burnett, who has yet to fully shake his own injury history despite finally turning in consecutive healthy seasons–I wouldn’t mind the Yankees taking a Johnson-like gamble on Sheets, who has tremendous upside and, after sitting out all of 2009 following elbow trouble, has very little leverage for a long-term or even a particularly pricey short-term deal.
The big fish still out there in the pond, however, is Matt Holliday. I’ve been regrettably absent from the Banter since the end of the World Series, but those who have been following my frequent twitter updates know that my proposed plan for the Yankees this offseason started with Holliday, who is as perfect a fit for the Yankees’ left-field hole as Mark Teixeira was for their first-base hole a year ago. The acquisition of Curtis Granderson has allayed the need for Holliday, but unless the Yankees plan to play Granderson in left and let Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner continue to battle it out for the center field job, the Yankees’ left field hole persists.
I had given up hope of the Yankees signing Holliday Tuesday morning when Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported the Cardinals had offered him an eight-year deal, but that afternoon, Buster Olney reported that the Cardinals were holding fast at five years. Holliday is a lesser player than Teixeira and there are still doubts about his ability to produce in the American League, but he is an excellent all-around player (hits for average with power and patience, good in the field, decent speed on the bases) and won’t turn 30 until next month, and the new Yankee Stadium was every bit as friendly to righty power hitters in its first season as it was to lefties. He’s well worth a five-year deal even if the annual salary creeps toward $20 million. Unlike with Teixeira, there seems to be little to no threat of the Red Sox moving in on Holliday should the Yankees fail to, but there is no superior outfielder scheduled to hit the market next offseason (Carl Crawford comes closest, but Holliday still has him beat and relies far less on his speed, a skill likely to fade as Crawford gets into his thirties).
The Yankees have said they don’t plan to pursue Holliday, but they said the same thing about Teixeira last year. Landing Holliday would make any contribution from Johnson a bonus. Failing to do so would make Johnson an important bat in the Yankee lineup, which is asking for trouble because there’s no guarantee he won’t break. I’d rather have rolled the dice on Matsui’s knees for one more year.
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Hat tip to @leokitty on twitter for pointing out the Huffington Post piece.
nick gets on base more than johnny, but johnny runs the bases much more betterer and hence, scores more runs. i wonder how that washes out…
some good holliday points in there… i wonder what cash has up his sleeve. if we do get holliday for LF, one of gritner or leche should/will be traded. i’d rather keep melky, even though he makes more (still, barely anything) and is more established (as far as trades go). i know the royales had interest in brett, but that may have dissipated by now. i’m sure hillman could use a pinch “stand there” (h/t mattpat!)
There was a lot of NJ discussion in the previous thread so I wont repeat it, but if he stays healthy, he will be very productive, and probably more productive than Matsui. While Johnson’s litany of injuries is Pavano-ish, I think he will benefit from a mostly DH role, just as Matsui did last year. The Yankees have to be intimately familiar with Matsui’s knees, so I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that they simply decided to part company rather than they were caught off guard by his decision.
As for Holliday, sure, he’d be a nice signing, but even the Yankees can’t throw out $20mn ($28mn to the Yankees because of the luxury tax) contracts like candy.
Finally, I wish I could recall where I saw it, but I recently read an article suggesting that not only does speed not decline faster as a skill, but it actually holds up better. Still, I wouldn’t go crazy for Crawford.
[2] The Royals had interest in Gardner? Jeez..are they in some kind of “Brewster’s Millions” situation where they HAVE to lose games??
Losing Matsui sucks for so many reasons..and not just TV schedule here! Let’s just hope Nick j can keep that high OPB and not “clog the bases”!
[0] A more skeptical tale on this move than my own, but reasonable arguments. However, the following makes little sense to me:
but unless the Yankees plan to play Granderson in left and let Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner continue to battle it out for the center field job, the Yankees’ left field hole persists.
So, if I understand you correctly, Granderson in CF, Melky in LF = holes to fill, but Melky in CF, Granderson in LF = no holes to fill.
Huh??
[5] “take” not “tale”
[6] You just corrected your own typo at 6:31am your time..you really ARE a professor I guess! :)
I don’t see any reasons why we can’t win with Melky LF, Curtis CF and Swish RF..enough O and D around the diamond…what am I missing?? Say NO to Holliday!
[4] They do need to replace Coco Crisp!
[5] I don’t get that line of thinking. Granderson should be an all around above average CF’er, while Melky will could be a well above average defensive LF’er whose offense will probably lag (although it could get better). If not having a superstar at every position constitutes a hole, then I guess it’s a valid view point, but otherwise, you can’t discount the defensive upgrade of Melky-Grandy versus Damon-Melky. The Red Sox are being lauded for the Cameron move solely on that kind of defensive upgrade.
[7] No Holiday? What a grinch!
[6] [7] I type so fast and am often so eager to post that way too many typos get by…sometimes I even incoherently meld two thoughts into one.
Then again, consider this Bit of trivia
Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by it slef but the wrod as a wlohe.
[10] Well gash durn Cletus, that dun meen we may bee sumart after all! :) Shame that is not true about writing Japanese..one mistaken character can make your whole sentence change meaning or become nonsensical.
Holliday is a good player but signing him to that kind of Giambi-type deal seems a mistake to me..they can win with the all-20s OF of Melky, Curtis and Swisher!
[5] If Melky is your left-fielder you’re below average at the position. I consider that a hole. Melky was able to produce at the level of an average CF in 2009, however, so if he’s in center, no hole. I understand why that seems weird, but it’s about ease of upgrade. It’s hard to find a more productive CF (though they have in Granderson), but easy to find a more productive LF. If LF is where they stick Melky, they could have done better: hole.
I have a hard time analyzing these moves in a vacuum. I think the point is IF the Yankees have nothing else besides Nick at the 2 hole they are vulnerable because of his long injury history (especially to his hands or writs). However it’s December we really don’t know what the finished product will be. Will they make a move for Hallady, will Damon be back, how ready will Miranda and or Vasquez be to fill in during the year, will DeRosa or someone like him be brought in?
Fundamentally I like this move because of the skills Nick brings and the sentimental tug of having him back . His injury history is worrisome. I think the grade on this just like the full grade on Granderson has to be incomplete until the product is finished.
I agree with Cliff’s conclusion though: if this is the ultimate move on the hitting side of things it leaves the Yankees vulnerable.
From the Fangraphs link:
=======================
Randy Winn Giants: 20.1
J.D. Drew Red Sox: 15.7
Juan Rivera Angels: 15.0
Matt Holliday: 6.0
Curtis Granderson Tigers: 1.6
Nick Swisher Yankees: -1.7
Melky Cabrera Yankees: -2.0
Bobby Abreu Angels:-10.7
Johnny Damon Yankees: -12.1
Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox: -18.3
Vernon Wells Toronto: -18.7
Brad Hawpe Rockies: -25.9
So…. an OF of Randy Winn, J.D. Drew and Juan Rivera would be one of the very best in MLB? (with a 17-ish)
And the 2009 Yankees OF averaged in the -5 range?
And Jacoby Ellsbury (-18.7) along with Vernon Wells (-18.3) is really one of the very worst in the game (quite a bit worse then Boobie Abreu)?
I love stats, and my eyes aren’t what they used to be, but
C’MON!!!!!
Over his last 3 years (06,08,09), Nick’s HRs have been 22 away and 14 at home.
I wonder if that will change a bit in YSIII.
I’ll bet he hits more HRs (barring injury) then JD does in 2010
I’m guessing 16 HRs or better for Nick.
[0] The acquisition of Curtis Granderson has allayed the need for Holliday, but unless the Yankees plan to play Granderson in left and let Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner continue to battle it out for the center field job, the Yankees’ left field hole persists.
Okay this keeps coming up and maybe I’m missing something. But if Granderson is a suitable Holliday replacement, what difference does it make where he plays? The line-up is exactly the same whether he’s in LF or Cabrera is. It just seems crazy to me to find the OF wanting, unless two of the guys exchange where they stand out there, then it’s okay. Is the convention of having a LF with some pop so strong that having that same guy in CF instead is somehow a crisis?
Am I missing something? Seriously!
[16] see [12]
[5] I see you already asked the same question as [16], but you’ll forgive me if by repetition, this switcheroo concept has addled my mind a bit (more) and so yes … I jumped the gun!
[17] I’m way behind. It’s emotions.
[17] [12] Haha, you’ve explained it well enough for me to be pretty sure I’m not missing anything and indeed it doesn’t make a lot of sense! No offense but that’s a can’t-see-the-forest-for-the-trees issue, I think.
[16] “It just seems crazy to me to find the OF wanting, unless two of the guys exchange where they stand out there, then it’s okay.”
Pardon my interruption and I know your question is directed elsewhere but I couldn’t help remember and observe that it was thoughts and questions like that that made me realize that the U.S. Army was not the place for me!
Please accept my apology and carry on.
I see this signing slightly differently. They’ve gotten a guy, at the same production, who can occasionally play the field, but for slightly less money. But they’ve also kept NJ away from teams that could start Casey Kotchman at 1B. With Matsui, it seems like a wash. And OBP ages very well. Even if his power doesn’t come back, he’s a nice complementary player especially at #2 or even at #5.
As for LF, fast forward one year. Mauer and Lee plus Jeter and Mo. That’s alot of money especially since the Sox have just as much of a need for Mauer as the Yanks. Why waste it on an overrated guy like Holliday when they could get decent enough production from Melky and Hoffman. Sure, it’s a hole. But they went into 2009 with a hole in CF. That didn’t turn out too badly, did it?
[12] I understand the concept of offensive production by position, but that logic dissolves once the players have been acquired. Let’s say that Granderson was acquired as the LF. You would have been happy enough, figuring he gives adequate production at LF and Melky gives adequate production in CF. Then in the middle of the season, Girardi decides to switch them in the field–now you have Melky at below average production for LF, but Granderson at above average production in CF…and overall the team’s offense is the same. At that point it doesn’t matter what position each is playing.
Or look at it another way, a team that is winning with Melky in CF and Granderson in LF is not going to suddenly lose with Granderson in CF and Melky in LF.
Or look at it a third way, if the team is satisfied (offensively) with an OF of Melky, Granderson, and Swisher, it doesn’t matter at which position each plays (with regards to offense).
So, if Melky is such a hole in LF but is adequate in CF, then the team should not have bothered going after Granderson, right? They should have focused entirely on filling LF, since Granderson + Melky is not an adequate offensive combo for CF + LF (regardless how configured).
In any case, this will all soon be “mute,” because there is no way the team plays this season with Melky starting in LF (or CF). Finding even an adequate LF will be relatively easy…indeed, look no further than Xavier Nady (for all of his flaws).
[21] Not at all; thank you for your input.
[22] I really doubt that Mauer is going to leave the Twins. I’d be surprised.
Great headline, and analysis, Cliff. We’re watching “A Christmas Story” with the kids this weekend.
Perhaps Damon will be back in play after Nick breaks his hand signing the contract.
I kid, I kid, bring back the *OBP!
*Oft-Broken Player!
I have argued for awhile that with the enormously strong production NY gets from ss/2base, it just alters the assessment of needs. We do not fit the normal paradigm of power at the OF corners, weak sticks and D in the middle infield. We also have massive production at 3base, and only a few teams do these days. (Consider that Beltre is in line for 10 million plus.) So I am much less worried about ‘holes’ in LF, say than some people. I’d look at the overall offensive production, not isolated positions.
I see NJ for Godzilla as obviously swapping one fragility for another. Though I note that reading ‘Nick Johnson’ and ‘medical clearance’ in a sentence is awfully funny. I do find the story about why Matsui went quickly to LA interesting: he wants to win, period. I’d be surprised (frankly) if his agent hadn’t at least called Cashman to say Hideki was ready to jump – for this reason – and did NY have anything to say?
[23] You get to the heart of it, monkeypants. I think the Yankees should have prioritized Holliday over Granderson, not that I won’t love Curtis in pinstripes, but yes, that’s really the issue, I suppose. That and the fact that Brett Gardner’s still the best CF on the team, and likely a more productive hitter than Melky, but would you put Gardner in left? Wouldn’t that seem like a hole?
monkey … yes, Nady really is the forgotten man here, isn’t he? And he doesn’t deserve to be entirely written off. Agreed.
I will conservatively say, over the next 5 years, Melky’s AAV will be AT LEAST $5m. I believe Holliday would jump on 6/$102m ($17m AAV) and he might be had for 5/$90m ($18m AAV)
The NJ aquisition has thrown me off a bit, but I believe Cashman has been targeting Holliday all along. It’s the main reason why he did not resign Matsui. So if we trade Melky (and we would be selling high), Hollday costs the team a net $13m AAV.
While I have been one of the strongest voices here to stay away from long contracts, as Cliff says, a Holliday deal mirrors the situation of the Teix deal. It is a perfect fit, and there is no 2011 OFer in sight. If also offers the flexibility we need, as we will not need a full-time DH in 2011.
Swapping Melky for Holliday and paying an extra $13m is a NO-BRAINER. The 3 or 4 extra Wins he brings could literally be the difference between making the PS or not. I believe Holliday pushes us from very good to Dynasty, with our only need over the next 4 years being starting Pitching and Jesus Montero behind the plate (and maybe a SS in the 4th year).
Jeter, Nick, Teix, ARod, Holliday, Granderson, Posada, Cano, Swisher/Gardner/Pena.
Sick… just sick! Really… salivate over then lineup a bit.
At 30, there is a chance that NJ’s wrist was still healing in 2009, and he might have a little more pop in 2010. Conversely, Matsui at 35, had his knees drained THREE times, without ever once taking the field. I can’t say NJ will be better then Matsui in 2010, but I believe the odds are in his favor. I love the guy and love his bat, so I am very pleased (with my fingers crossed).
[28] I’m just using Melky as a convenience. I’m in a minority on this site (among posters), but I think that Gardner is probably the better player than Melky. So, I would start Gardener over Melky.
Now you ask, would I put Gardner in LF? Why not? Sure, I prefer to put him in CF and Granderson in LF, but if it keeps Granderson happy to patrol CF, I don’t see too much downside.
Actually, what I would try to do now is package Melky or Gardner in a trade, whichever commands more value and then stick the leftover in LF or, ideally, sign a cheap corner OF and move Melky/Gardner to the bench next to Hoffman.
[27] Obviously the Yankees’ “problems” are exaggerated by analysis such as the above, they just won the World Series with the majors’ best offense and highest payroll, but winning it all isn’t so easy that you can afford to let opportunities to improve skate by. You never know when injury or performance collapse is going to strike, or when your opponents are going to have everything go right at once.
Saying that having above average production on the far right of the defensive spectrum (C, SS, 2B etc.) means the Yankees don’t have to worry as much about the far left (DH, LF, RF) is a mistake. The advantage on the right of the spectrum is only and advantage if they’re up to par on the left. Otherwise it all evens out and they’ve spent their advantage. What’s more, an above average SS/2B isn’t as productive as an above average LF/RF (save for the Chase Utleys and Hanley Ramirez’s of the world), so being strong only on the far right of the spectrum is actually the recipe for a weaker offense (not that that’s the case for the Yankees, but that’s where that argument heads . . .).
[30] But, OYF, Cashman has been making noise that signings this year are definitely being made with next year’s FA market in mind. Jeter and Mo are FAs at the end of next season, and there are some other big fish as well. Is Holladay worth so much this year that the team risk potentially not resigning Jeter or Mo and/or other players the organization may have targeted?
[29] He really does deserve to be written off. Really.
[27] I’ve often thought the same thing. When you’re getting 100(+) HRs from your IF, for instance, the need to totally stack your OF is lessened somewhat. Now you have a CF and RF that will probably get you another 60 HR, LF’s need to be a big stick is almost entirely mitigated.
[34] This season, would you rather have Melky in LF at around 4 million, or Nady in LF for around the same amount or a couple million more?
[36] Is there a third option? I think I’d actually go with Melky because of his superior defense and the remaining chance that he could improve. Nady is what he is and it’s very very ordinary (and bad in the field).
Fair enough. I figure Nady gives around .800 OPS, while Melky will be lucky to match last season’s .750. Is the difference in defense that great? That’s not a rhetorical question…I dont know.
Third option…Rick Ankiel, assuming last season’s disaster was a fluke/injury driven?
[25] Then, why hasn’t he signed yet?
[28] I think you’re missing the big point. Granderson over Holliday saves them at least $75M. Wouldn’t you rather be put on a guy like Mauer or Lee than on Holliday. Maybe it’s not an either/or, but the team does seem to be at least aware of a budget.
Still, I choose Curtis every time. He’s going to crush at home and even against lefties. On the road, he’s going to be top 5. Just a fantastic acquisition for peanuts – dollars and prospects.
[38] Melky is 25 years old. It’s not out of the question that he takes a step forward. He reminds me of Juan Rivera. Some years up, some down, but overall he’s not going to kill you.
I’m fine with Gardner too. If he were on the Sox, he’d be “OMG not Ellsbury for A-Gon!” Seriously, compare their 2009 road numbers.
Nady is AWFUL (well, in my world view where average = awful). Stop talking about him PLEASE. He had one – ONE – very good 1/2 season. And that’s it. Reversion to the mean is a powerful thing.
Anyway, I STILL WANT HOLLIDAY. Mauer will not be a FA, Crawford may or may not be, but in any case is not definitely better than Holliday (in fact strong arguments can be made in each’s favor). SO that leaves Lee, plus our own (Jeter and Mo) who are not going anywhere.
Given NJ’s injury propensity, if we’re done on O then that’s a mistake. Add in the fact that I still don’t think that NJ + CG 2010 > Matsui + Damon 2009 (even factoring in D), and I simply won’t be happy with this off season if we don’t sign Holliday. Especially when it would appear that we can get Holliday for “only” 5 years…
After a time being a Yankee fan is really a distorted world. I am not in the ‘it would be bullying’ to sign Holliday (or have signed Halladay) but I do see some of the suggestions about perfect fit, and we need him as reflecting a sense of unlimited resources and that fuels the perception elsewhere of a game that might be broken.
I think Paul is right, To assess Grandy vs Holliday is to ignore 75 million. Who can do that? Well, maybe the Yankee fanbase, but it doesn’t look as if Cashman is so instantly inclined. And do we have an inherent right to have an offense with ZERO weaknesses? A bench worth 40 million a year? The micro-analysis can take us that way. I’m reminded of Bottom in Midsummer Night’s Dream: “Let ME play Thisbe, too!’ Let ME have Holliday too!
I’d like him, I think he’s a fit as much as OYF thinks so. But I’m not so sure we should be indulging ourselves with going after everyone who might fit at any cost. (I do see OYF’s math, where he ‘only’ adds 13 million a year if Leche is spilled.)
Cliff, I’m not sure your analysis of ‘spending’ the infield (and catcher, as you say) bat advantage is really right, though I like the phrasing. I see it much more as not needing to get agitated about THIS team having its below-average production located in LF. I’m looking at overall run-production, spread across the projected lineup.
[22] In theory, OPS+ is adjusted for league and park.
Holliday, career OPS+: 133, wOBA .400 ($18m AAV)
Teixeira, career OPS+: 136, wOBA .391 ($22.5m AAV)
Mauer,, career OPS+: 136, wOBA .384 ($20+m AAV?)
Holliday might be considered overvalued if you take his numbers at face value, without considering the Coors Effect. So what if he is really a 128 OPS guys instead on 133? Maybe his ‘real’ career OPS is .875-.900 instead of (his actual) .933? Still a stud or not?
And I’m repeating myself, but for his career, Holliday’s OPS against RHP is 75 pts higher then against LHP. Over his career, he hits approximately twice as many fly balls to RF and he hits to LF. He is one of the very few RH hitters who should play very well as YSIII.
FanGraphs has Holliday’s AVERAGE VALUE over the last 3 years at $26m/yr. Even if you discount his value by 20%(!) due to the Coors/NL effect, he is still worth $18m/yr.
So, you don’t want to give a LONG contract to Holliday, even though we have NO LFer on the farm in sight for years, but you will give a LONG contract to a Catcher while 4 of our top 10 prospects are Catchers?
And Mauer doesn’t help us this year. Holliday all but guarantees us the PS (and more) in 2010.
Our farm is rich in arms and especially Catchers…. but is all but void of position players. Doesn’t this have to be considered when looking forward?
[41] He had one – ONE – very good 1/2 season. And that’s it.
Yes. But he also had seasons with the following OPS totals:
.790, .813, .805, .867 and two other seasons at .760.
He’s not “terrible,” he’s terribly average. And if the competition is between him and Melky, he starts to look a lot better by comparison, unless Melky improves a good deal with the stick (I’m skeptical, but it’s certainly not impossible).
[39] I don’t think Mauer hasn’t signed because he intends to leave. Do you?
[39] I don’t think Mauer hasn’t signed because he intends to leave. Do you?
[44] damned open tag!
[45][46] HELLO! ::echo:: HELLO! … Hello … hello … hell … :: echo::
I always feel a strange kind of pride when I get a double post. Sure, it’s luck – but it’s also hard to do here. So bully for me.
[33] Jeter makes $22m this year. If/when he is re-signed (at age 37), unless then Yankees are INSANE, I would guess $4-7m comes off the books. If Mo is re-signed (at 41!), he can’t cost more then $15m/yr, so again, I’ll guess $2-3m should come off the books. Also, while ARod makes $32m this year, his AAV drops $12m over the next 7 years. ($1.7m/yr).
As for Cashman’s statements…..
DUDE!
Where do you think the Military learned about ‘STEALTH’ technology from!