After the Yankees pounded the Orioles 12-3 yesterday at the stadium, Randy Johnson told reporters:

“The only thing that separates me and the best pitcher – whoever that may be considered in the game right now – is that he’s been consistent all year long and I haven’t been,” said Johnson (8-6), who allowed two runs on seven hits and struck out eight. “That’s the frustrating thing … is you don’t know what you’re going to get. That’s never been the case.”
(N.Y. Daily News)

It is still hard to figure what the second half will bring for the Bombers. Will they be good enough to hang around and get our hopes up, only to falter in the end, or are they going to make a push and actually make the playoffs?

It was a stunningly gorgeous day in New York yesterday. Today, some of the humidity has returned, and the breeze has been muted. The sky looks milky and hazy. Randy Johnson will pitch on three-days rest this afternoon at the Stadium. Let’s hope the Bombers can build on yesterday’s win.

July 4th brought plenty of fireworks to the Bronx as the Yankees enjoyed one of their most satisfying wins of the season, out-lasting the O’s, 13-8.

I had a really good feeling at the start of the game. Watching the Yankee hitters walk to the plate, they looked like they were fresh out of a video game. Recall how incredulous I was earlier in the season when junk-ballin’ Bruce Chen shut them down. Well, I was not expecting a repeat performance. Derek Jeter led off and tomahawked pitch out-of-the-zone into left for a single. Then dancing around first, he distracted Chen plenty, who proceeded to walk Robinson Cano on five pitches. Cano was very calm, which I found impressive. Then Chen laid an egg, or a what you’d call a room service fastball (?) to Gary Sheffield. Sheff almost jumped out of his uniform, he was so excited, waiting just enough, and with a long, phat, juicy swing, slammed a three run dinger into the left field bleachers.

Alex Rodriguez was next and he hit a wicked line drive down the third base line. Melvin Mora bent his right knee and stuck his left arm across his body. Miraculously, it caught the ball in the webbing of the glove. But the speed was so great, that it could well have knocked Mora’s mitt clean off. Instead, he twirled around, propelled by his left leg, like a dradle, and threw Rodriguez out easily. The play happened in the blink of an eye, and was some kind of Major League moment. Rodriguez can’t seem to buy a hit (a problem that would continue in his next at bat when Jay Gibbons robbed him of an extra-base hit). But Hideki Mastui launched a breaking ball off the facade in right field, and Jason Gaimbi did the same in the next inning. It was a short day for Chen.

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Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui are two of the finalists for the last slot on the American League All Star team. According to the Daily News:

Asked if he were disappointed that he wasn’t already on the team, Jeter said, “Every year, there are people on other teams who are pretty deserving. I’ve been on when others have deserved it. It makes you appreciate the opportunities you do have to go.”

… Said Gary Sheffield: “I don’t know if the Japanese fans count (they do), but if they do, I think (Jeter) is done. He’s got vacation.”

It is an absolutely gorgeous morning here in New York. It might be a bit overcast, but the sun will be out, the humidity is low and there is a nice breeze. Yanks host the O’s at 1:00. Tanyon Sturtze gets the emergency start versus Bruce Chen, who has had the Yankees’ number early this year. (Randy Johnson, pitching on three days rest will go tomorrow.) Enough. Time for some fireworks! I’m ready for the Bomber bats to smack Chen around this afternoon.

Here’s hoping the Bombers make George’s 75th birthday and happy one. And by the way, Happy Birthday Mr. Steinbrenner.

Let’s Go Yan-kees.

Chien-Ming Wang and Nate Robertson both pitched brisk, efficient games today. Wang, starting in place of Carl Pavano, lasted seven innings, while Robertson went the distance; both were helped out by some key double plays. The difference was an RBI single by Gary Sheffield in the fourth inning. The Yankees won 1-0, taking the weekend series and gaining a game on the Red Sox, who lost to the Jays (the Orioles lost too).

Mariano Rivera allowed a double to Ivan Rodriguez to start the ninth, but retired the next three men to earn his 18th save of the year. Rivera’s earned run average is now down to 0.85. Rivera is one of three Yankees who are going to the All-Star Game. Alex Rodriguez will be the starting third baseman while Gary Sheffield made it as a reserve outfielder. Notably, Derek Jeter did not make the team. Fans do have the opportunity to vote in one more player from each league, so perhaps Jeter (or Godzilla Matsui) will make it after all.

The Yankees had six hits through the first four innings last night, but just one run to show for it. Mike Mussina was handling the Tigers well, but in the bottom of the inning, the Tigers struck for four runs, including a three-run shot by Dimitri Young (off a breaking ball).

However, the Yanks managed to slowly come back. In the sixth, with two men out (and Alex Rodriguez, the lead runner having reached on a strikeout/passed ball), Bernie Williams ripped a single to right, scoring two runs and the Yanks were back in it. They tied it in the following inning when Derek Jeter scored on a tomahawk double to left by Gary Sheffield. Both teams had rallys that fizzled in the eighth (Tom Gordon pitched the seventh and eighth for New York). Then the Yanks met their old nemesis Troy Percival, just a grizzly-looking as ever, in the ninth. He might still look mean, but Perival is not nearly as imposing as he was years ago with the Angels.

With one out, Alex Rodriguez slapped a high fastball into right. Magglio Ordonez had to go pretty far to his right to field it, so Rodriguez took a gamble and headed for second, sliding in safely for a double. Hideki Matsui weakly popped out and then Jorge Posada was walked intentionally so that the Tigers could face the pinch-hitter, Tony Womack. Actually, my reaction was that Womack was going to do something good. Percival promptly blazed two fastballs past him, but he couldn’t put him away, as Womack lined a single over the second baseman’s head. Rodriguez scored and the Yanks had the lead. Bernie Williams then stroked a three-run homer deep into the right field bleachers. It was a no-doubt-about-it shot, which got my fat ass off of the couch, yelling and whooping. Final score: Yanks 8, Tigers 4.

It’s always nice to see Percival get tagged, but it is even sweeter to see ol’ man Bernie come through. He had four hits in all for the game. Good for him. We’ve got to cherish these last couple of great Bernie moments while we can, right? Mo went through the Tigers without incident, one-two-three in the ninth, as the Yanks keep pace with the Red Sox and Orioles, who both won as well.

The saga of Paul Quantrill and Mike Stanton continues today as is has been reported that the Yankees have actually convinced the Padres to offer up a pair of warm bodies and cash for the DFAed Quantrill. The two players acquired, former Royals lefty Darrell May and former Astros righty Tim Redding, are not much to write home about, but it’s always nice to get something in return for a player you were planning to release anyway.

Both pitchers will report to Columbus, but it seems to me that May would be a much better choice than Wayne Franklin to fill the roll of second lefty/long man/spot starter with the big club. May, who just turned 33, is almost two years older than Franklin and just as susceptible to the long ball (1.65 HR/9 in nearly 600 major league innings prior to this year to Franklin’s 1.61), but he has far better control (2.86 BB/9 through 2004 to Franklin’s 4.58), a league average career ERA (5.04, 97 ERA+ to Franklin’s 5.47/80) and superior splits.

Franklin has pitched well at Columbus this year (4.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.74 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 3.54 K/BB), but when he was called up it was reported (forgive me, I can’t find where I read it) that he had held right handers to a very low batting average. As his opponents were hitting .242 against him overall, that would mean that lefty’s are getting to him pretty well. In his major league career, Franklin has a proper split, but not a very strong one:

vs. L: .261/.329/.468 (.265 GPA)
vs. R: .270/.369/.483 (.287)

May’s career splits are not available, but here are his splits since 2002, when he returned to the majors after four years pitching in Japan (two as Hideki Matsui’s teammate with the Yomiuri Giants):

vs. L: .263/.300/.447 (.247)
vs. R: .280/.332/.518 (.279)

May has a bigger split and lower GPAs against both lefties and righties. What’s more there’s this split from his time with the Padres thus far this year:

As Starter: 6.94, 1.69 WHIP, .318 BAA
As Reliever: 3.52, 1.39 WHIP, .278 BAA

In addition, while May has indeed been terrible as a starter this year, he did have a strong outing against the Twins less than two weeks ago in which he allowed just one run (a Matt LeCroy homer) in six innings while striking out four and allowing just two other baserunners (both on singles).

So, while the Yankees would still be better off giving that final bullpen slot to a younger player such as Alex Graman or Colter Bean, they’ve already given themselves the opportunity to improve upon their current roster with the acquisition of May (which is a pretty damning statement now that I think about).

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note: this post was to be posted before game time, but was held up due to a black out resulting from a sudden thunderstorm.

Normally at the start of a new series I post the roster of the team the Yankees are about to face, but after the last couple of days, I thought it might be helpful to post the Yankees current roster.

New York Yankees

2005 Record: 39-38 (.506)
2005 Pythagorean Record: 41-36 (.532)

Manager: Joe Torre
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Ballpark (2004 park factors): Yankee Stadium (96/97)

Current Roster

1B – Jason Giambi
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jorge Posada
RF – Gary Sheffield
CF – Tony Womack
LF – Hideki Matsui
DH – Ruben Sierra

Bench:

S – Bernie Williams (OF)
L – Tino Martinez (1B)
R – Russ Johnson (IF)
L – Bubba Crosby (OF)
R – John Flaherty (C)

Rotation:

L – Randy Johnson
R – Mike Mussina
R – Carl Pavano
R – Chien-Ming Wang

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Tom Gordon
R – Tanyon Sturtze
L – Buddy Groom
R – Jason Anderson
R – Scott Proctor
L – Wayne Franklin

DL:

R – Kevin Brown
R – Rey Sanchez (IF)
R – Felix Hernandez
R – Jaret Wright (60-day)

As for who’s replaced whom, by demoting Kevin Reese in favor of righty Jason Anderson on Wednesday, then designating Paul Quantrill and Mike Stanton for assignment yesterday in favor of Bubba Crosby and lefty Wayne Franklin, you get this:

Bubba Crosby replaces Kevin Reese
Jason Anderson replaces Paul Quantrill
Wayne Franklin replaces Mike Stanton

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Just a couple of tidbits as the Yankees get set for a weekend series with the Tigers in the Motor City:

1. Gary Sheffield received a two-game suspension for losing his cool last Sunday night against the Mets:

“I think the decision by Bob Watson was absolutely wrong,” Yankees president Randy Levine said. “The entire incident was precipitated by what we know today to be a completely incorrect call and an overreaction by the umpire in ejecting Sheff from the game prematurely.”
(N.Y. Daily News)

Sheffield will appeal the suspension.

2. Mike Stanton and Paul Quantrill are officially out. Wayne Franklin, a left-handed reliever who was released by the Giants in March, has been called up, as has Bubba Crosby.

3. George Steinbrenner turns 75 on Monday. Murray Chass and Mike Lupica both have articles today about why George just ain’t the same anymore.

4. Mike Mussina was scheduled to pitch Wednesday. Battling a stomach virus, he’ll give way to the Big Unit tonight, and pitch tomorrow instead.

5. Big shout out to our pal Steven Goldman and his wife Stephanie on the birth of their second child, a baby boy named Clemens (named after Samuel, not Roger).

Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. Cliff and I will be in and around the tri-state area watcing the Yanks, so fall through if you like, we’ll be here.

With the All-Star voting closing tonight at 11:59pm and the Yanks enjoying an off-day following a rain out, I though I’d share my picks.

AL

1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Brian Roberts
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jason Varitek
OF – Vladimir Guerrero
CF – Hideki Matsui
OF – Gary Sheffield

NL

1B – Derek Lee
2B – Jeff Kent
SS – Bill Hall
3B – Aramis Ramirez
C – Paul Lo Duca
OF – Bobby Abreu
CF – Jason Bay
OF – Miguel Cabrera

There are two sides to picking an All-Star team. One is picking the players who have performed the best over the first three months of the current season. The other is choosing the biggest stars at each position. This is similar to the peak vs. career conversation that often arises when weighing a player’s Hall of Fame candidacy. Myself, I lean toward choosing the players who have performed best in the current season, the logic being that they have these things every year for a reason. Even Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez have to earn an All-Star appearance in my book. Some would argue that a three-month period is not a large enough sample, that perhaps it would be better to reward the previous years’ performance, thus allowing things to even out over a full season. Me, I’d much rather see Norm Cash in 1961 than in 1962 and Brady Anderson in 1996 than 1997, thus I’ll continue to vote for the players having the best season and risk the odd fluke selection.

Those who disagree will likely take one look at the above list of names and get all bent out of shape over my choosing Milwaukee’s Bill Hall as the starting National League shortstop. To them I ask, would you prefer Felipe Lopez?

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Gary Sheffield spoke with reporters yesterday and made it crystal clear that he would make life exceedingly hard for any team the Yankees traded him to. According to Jack Curry in the New York Times:

“I would never sit out,” Sheffield said. “I would go play for them. It doesn’t mean I’m going to be happy playing there. And if I’m unhappy, you don’t want me on your team. It’s just that simple. I’ll make that known to anyone.”

…”If I’m not happy, you don’t want me on your team, period,” Sheffield said. “That’s just the way it goes. That’s life. I have to deal with what they dish out, they got to deal with what I dish out, period. That’s just the way it’s going to be.”

Joe Torre later told Sheffield that the Yanks have no desire to persue a deal with the Mets. “The Yankees would never just give up Gary Sheffield,” is how one American League executive phrased it to Curry. To hear a full audio clip of Sheff’s rant, head on over to Matt Cerrone’s outstanding Metsblog.com and peep the mp3. Personally, I think his spiel was amusing. I’ve enjoyed Sheffiled a lot since he’s been in the Bronx. He’s been a terrific player, and don’t blame him for not wanting to leave. Mike Vaccaro put it well in the Post today:

Sheffield is arrogant, he’s moody, he’s tempermental–but he’s smart as hell. You bet he wanted to kill this deal as quickly as he could.

You could also add that he’s a great player and a future Hall of Famer to boot. And in case you missed it, be sure and check out Jay Jaffe’s excellent three-part history of Sheff (one, two and three) over at The Futility Infielder.

Kicked to the Curb

The Post reports that the Yankees have released relievers Paul Quantrill and Mike Stanton. Both seemed like good guys, but neither was especially effective this year.

If Yankees general manager Brian Cashman can’t find takers for the two pitchers by tomorrow, he’ll have to designate them for assignment. Stanton has a no-trade clause, so he can dictate his destination. To have any chance of dealing either pitcher, the Yankees will likely have to pay what’s left of their salaries. Stanton, who makes $4 million this season, has a 1-2 record and 7.07 ERA, and Quantrill, who makes $3 million, is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA.
(Newsday)

This move does not come as a surpise.

Well, the Yankees and Orioles have been rained out in Baltimore tonight, but there is some Yankee news to report. With Hideki Matsui able to play the field again, the Yanks have demoted Kevin Reese and brought up Jason Anderson.

For those who don’t remember him from 2003, when he made the Yankees out of spring training as a 23-year-old rookie, Anderson is a now-26-year-old righty reliever who has a strong minor league track record (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.93 K/9, 2.54 K/9, 3.13 K/BB through 2004), but was unable to capitalize upon his best major league opportunity in 2003. That year he made 28 of his 29 career major league apperances. After 22 games with the Yankees in 2003, Anderson was dealt accross town in the Armando Benitez trade and eventually wound up in the Indians system before returning to the Yankees via a waver claim just over a year ago, having appeared in just seven more games total for the Mets and Indians.

In Columbus this season, Anderson has been the Clipper’s best reliever, improving upon that minor league career line thusly: 2.85 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .189 BAA, 7.99 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 3.81 K/BB (47.1 IP, 30 H, 42 K, 11 BB, 4 HR)

Having Anderson on the team is a step in the right direction as he’s been excellent in Columbus thus far and could make one of the Yankees Bad Three (Stanton, Quantrill, Groom) expendable if he finally puts it together at the major league level.

Incidentally, as luck would have it, the Yankees got rained out on the night Joe Torre finally figured out the Yankees’ ideal line-up. According to MLB Gameday:

R – Jeter (SS)
L – Cano (2B)
R – Sheffield (RF)
R – Rodriguez (3B)
L – Matsui (LF)
S – Posada (C)
L – Giambi (DH)
S – Williams (CF)
L – Martinez (1B)

Last night, with a significant assist from their manager, the Yankees blew their chance to bum rush second place and the Wild Card race with a sweep of the current series against the Orioles. Instead, all the team has to show for their efforts on Tuesday are the on-going renaissance of Hideki Matsui (3 for 4 with a double and a homer and 2 RBIs, pushing his season line to .305/.372/.495, his best marks since late April) and the continued emergence of Robinson Cano (2 for 4 with a homer and two runs scored from the two-hole) and Chien-Ming Wang.

If Wang’s impressive outing against the hard-hitting Orioles wasn’t enough to silence his doubters, here’s a quick look at the quality starts (min. 6 IP, max 3 ER) the Yankees have received from their seven starters thus far this season:

Pavano should rightly be even with Mike Mussina at .500, as it’s hard to blame him for the April 10 start which he was forced to leave in the third inning after being beaned by a comebacker. Meanwhile, Mussina will try to push his mark above .500 as he takes the mound tonight against the Orioles.

Rookie Hayden Penn will foot the rubber for the Orioles, making his seventh major league start. Penn’s only quality start thus far came against the Rockies, who are essentially a triple-A team anyway, at home in his second most recent start. His one outing since then was by far his worst in the majors as he gave up seven runs on eight hits and two walks to the Braves in just two innings. Still, Penn is regarded as a legitimate talent. Check out what Baseball Analysts’ Bryan Smith wrote about him in a recent post addressing some of the rookie talent to debut in 2005.

First of all, kudos to the Orioles for handling Penn correctly. While promoting the red-hot Penn might have been premature with John Maine in the International League, it hasn’t really come back to haunt the Orioles. They also have kept close watch on Penn’s pitch counts, only twice letting him go into triple-digits, and never over 103 [which could have cost him as many as three or four additional quality starts–CJC]. But, Penn has been getting hit up of late, with five home runs allowed in his last three starts. Sooner or later, if the ship is not righted, swapping Maine and Penn might be in the best interest of everyone involved. No matter what, Hayden is one fantastic talent.

Incidentally, Bryan has some very kind words for Robinson Cano in that post. Be sure to check it out.

Nothing dramatic went down in Tampa Bay yesterday, but change could be right around the corner. When, is anyone’s guess. Never one to miss an opportunity, the New York Post glossed over last night’s discouraging 5-4 loss on the back page today in favor of some juicy gossip. According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees and Mets may consider swapping Gary Sheffield for Mike Cameron. Sherman’s two sources, an AL and NL club executive, say the deal is in its infancy:

[The Yankees] have talked to a couple of GMs and said they would move [Sheffield] for a similar type of player to shake things up a little, get younger or to fill a couple of their needs, specifically center field or starting pitching,” the NL executive said.

Sheffield, Flash Gordon, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada do not have no-trade clauses in their contracts. However, Sheffield told the New York Times:

“I’m not going anywhere,” said Sheffield, who is signed through 2006. “If I have to go somewhere, I won’t go. If they said, ‘Wouldn’t you want to get paid?’ I’d say, ‘I’ve got plenty of money.’ I’m not playing nowhere else. I can promise you that.”

If Sheff’s name hangs around the rumor mill, things could get ugly.

Chien-Ming Wang acquited himself quite nicely against Baltimore’s sluggin’ O’s last night, posting his seventh quality start in ten starts on the season with this line: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K.

Unfortunately, Joe Torre’s notorious push-button bullpen mismanagement and continually fragile faith in Wang conspired to rob the rookie right-hander and his team of a win.

Here’s the situation: Bottom of the eighth inning. The Yankees have a 4-3 lead. Wang has thrown just 83 pitches, 68 percent of them strikes. In the seventh he got Sammy Sosa to groundout on a full count, gave up a full-count single to Luis Matos, induced a double play grounder from Chris Gomez on a 1-2 count that was turned into a fielder’s choice when Matos forced Robinson Cano to make a wide throw to first, then got pinch-hitter Eli Marrero to fly out on a 1-0 count.

The top of the Oriole order is due up in this inning: Switch-hitter Brian Roberts (ground out, fly out, double), lefty Larry Bigbie (homer, two ground outs), and righty Miguel Tejada (ground out, single, foul out to Posada). Everyone is available in the pen.

What do you do?

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After ten major league appearances, Chien-Ming Wang heads into tonight’s game with a 4.31 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP having held opposing batters to a .248/.305/.343 (.223 GPA) line with a staggering 2.57 ground ball to fly ball ratio (which would rank sixth in the major leagues among qualified pitchers if Wang himself actually qualified). All of which is more than most could have asked for from a rookie pitcher thrust into an essentially permanent rotation spot due to an injury on the major league club.

But then there are these numbers: 3.30 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB. Those figures, particularly the K/9, which would be seventh worst in the majors if Wang qualified, have prompted some to call for Wang to be dealt before he is revealed as the phony they believe his low K-rate indicates he is. Taking that a step further, there are those who have accused Wang of feasting on poor-hitting teams, while struggling against more powerful offenses.

Well, thus far Chien-Ming has faced eight teams, and made starts against seven of them, here they are along with their current major league rank in runs scored and OPS:

Against those eight teams, Wang has turned in six quality starts in nine opportunities. The three exceptions being his two starts against the Devil Rays and his one against the Cardinals. His one appearance against the Red Sox came in relief.

Those stats would seem to support the image of Wang as a pitcher whose success has been largely based on facing week offenses, but I’m not convinced. To begin with, his minor league strikeout and walk rates indicate that his current low K-rate is likely to improve. In four minor league seasons between A ball and Columbus, Wang’s worst K/9 was 6.20 and his career minor league mark is 7.16 K/9. Similarly, his worst BB/9 was 2.36. Both of those marks came in his first season at double-A in 2003 and both improved when he returned to Trenton in 2004, and then improved again when he was promoted to Columbus later that year. Similarly, Wang’s second most recent start, against the Cubs who rank well above Tampa and just behind St. Louis in OPS, was his best of his young major league career and saw him strike out five men in eight innings against just one walk.

Still, until Wang acquits himself against strong-hitting teams, the doubters will have the floor. Tonight, Chien-Ming makes his first career start against the Orioles, who rank fifth in the majors in runs scored and second in the bigs in OPS. Again, I’m optimistic.

There was no brawl in Baltimore last night, but the signs for one were there. Carl Pavano initiated the bad feelings when he plunked Brian Roberts in the back following Larry Bigbie’s solo home run. Several innings later, Daniel Cabrera retaliated by throwing behind Alex Rodriguez. Both teams were issued a warning by home plate umpire Marty Foster and that was that. But Orioles’ reliever Steve Kline–who looks like Mike Stanton’s disheveled kid brother–provided some theatrics in the seventh inning when he was called for a balk. With the game tied at four and Jorge Posada on first base, Jason Giambi was at the plate with the count 3-0 in his favor. On the YES broadcast you could hear someone shout “Balk!” The announcers later speculated that the Orioles believed that the Yankee bench had convinced the ump to make the call. Either way, Kline absolutely lost it, and was quickly run from the game.

He later told reporters:

“I just think they favor the Yankees all the time,” he said. “I’m getting [upset] at that. They suck up to them. They’re the cream of the crop.”

…”I didn’t do anything to deceive the runner. It was a bull … call,” Kline said. “I’ve played nine years and only had like one balk call my whole life. Now I have three [this season]. Once you get hit once, they look at you real hard.”

…”I just asked [Foster] what I did and he tossed me right away,” Kline said. “I used a couple of bad words, but you have to understand we’re in the middle of a game. I said, ‘Hell, if I’m going to be gone, I might as well get my money’s worth.’ I was debating if I wanted to put him in the cobra clutch.”
(Baltimore Sun)

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If there was ever a time when two teams were primed for a brawl, tonight could be the night in Baltimore. Not that the Yanks and O’s have any heated rivalry going yet, but both teams have struggled of late, and the Bombers are playing like a team that could use a bench-clearing incident to get the led out of their systems (it would be funny if Torre joined the O’s in the fight, just to kick some of his own players in the ass). Plus, the volatile Daniel Cabrera is pitching for the Birds. That could help. Word to the wise: Don’t plunk Sheff, dude, unless you are prepared to throw bolos.

I’ve been fairly convinced that the Yankees are and will remain a .500 team this year ever since they were swept by the then AL-worst Royals four weeks ago. Still, streaks such as their 6-0 opening to the just-completed home stand and apparent breakthroughs by men such as Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, and especially Hideki Matsui combined with the continued impressive performances of Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang have kept me from saying so at print. But after the Yanks dropped 3 of 4 to the Devil Rays for the second time this year (falling to 3-7 against them on the season) and needed a last-gasp ninth-inning rally to avoid a sweep at the hands of the scuffling Mets, I’m finally ready to put it in black and white. That said, I’m optimistic about the team’s prospects heading in the three-game series with the Orioles that will kick off in Baltimore tonight.

After the Yanks took those first six home games from the Pirates and Cubs, the hope was that they could keep their momentum through the inferior D-Rays and Mets and get within three games of the division leading O’s in time to have a chance to take the division lead with a sweep of this series. Oh how things have changed. Not only did the Yanks finish their home stand with a 2-5 record against the Rays and Mets, but the Orioles have also fallen on hard times, droping six of their last seven to the Blue Jays and Braves (admittedly stronger competition), and relinquishing their division lead to the surging Red Sox (who, having won 12 of their last 13, appear to be on their way to running away with the east).

So not only did the Yankees fail to get within three games of the O’s (they’re four games behind them going into tonight), the Orioles are no longer the team to beat in the east as they trail the Sox by 2.5 and enter this series on a five-game losing streak. With that in mind, the Yankees are still in a position to tighten things between themselves and the second-place O’s, who also happen to be the Wild Card leaders of the moment, with the Twins also having hit hard times (5-11 in their last 16 games–in fact, the O’s, Twins and Yankees have nearly identical records in June: 11-13 for the O’s and Yanks, 11-12 for the Twins).

Taking a quick look at the pitching match-ups, the Yankees are in good shape: Pavano pitching on the road (2.49 ERA) against the volatile Daniel Cabrera (5.54 ERA, 5.91 in June), The Anchor Chien-Ming Wang taking on that giant ball of suck Sir Sidney Ponson (5.42 ERA), and Mike Mussina, a near-Hall of Fame veteran who has pitched several hundred games in Camden Yards, facing reeling rookie Hayden Penn (6.07 ERA, one quality start in six tries). I’m not making any predictions, but I have a good feeling about this.

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I believe that George Steinbrenner is not the same man he was back in the seventies and eighties, but at some point you figure he’s going to do something. Someone has to get canned, right? So long as the Yanks continue to play as poorly as they have, it just seems inevitable. So who will be the first one to get it? Brian Cashman or Mel Stottlemyre? My guess is that it will be Mel.