The Yanks made their home and broadcast debut with a 5-1 win over the Rays this afternoon. They’ve now won their first two spring games by a combined score of 11-2.

Lineup:

L – Johnny Damon (LF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
R – Xavier Nady (RF)
S – Jorge Posada (DH)
R – Jose Molina (C)
S – Melky Cabrera (CF)

Subs: Cody Ransom (1B), Angel Berroa (2B), Eduardo Nuñez (SS), Doug Bernier (3B), Francisco Cervelli (C), Shelley Duncan (RF), Brett Gardner (CF), Colin Curtis (LF), Kyle Anson (DH)

Pitchers: Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, J.B. Cox, Mark Melancon, Jonathan Albaladejo

Opposition: Carl Crawford and spare parts

Big Hits:

Jorge Posada (2-for-2) hit the first pitch he saw this spring into the right field bleachers, then hit a 405-foot RBI ground rule double in his next at-bat that likely would have gone out to dead center if not for a strong head wind. Shelley Duncan (1-for-1) crushalated a Calvin Medlock pitch in the seventh, dropping a three-run homer into the pond beyond the left field fence. Together, Posada and Duncan drove in all five Yankee runs.

Who Pitched Well:

Everyone. The seven Yankee pitchers didn’t allow an extra base hit and walked only one man. The one Rays run came off J.B. Cox in the seventh on a pair of infield singles and a stolen base. Phil Hughes issued the one walk and hit two other batters in his two innings, but he wasn’t wild. Both HBPs came when pitches inside and under the hands clipped the jersey of a left-handed batter, and the walk was on a full count. Hughes actually looked to be throwing a lot of strikes (Pete Abe had him throwing 67 percent of 33 pitches for strikes). He used his changeup and curveball, didn’t allow a hit, broke two bats, and struck out two men with fastballs (sitting around 92 miles per hour per the YES gun), one of whom was Carl Crawford, who went down on three pitches.

Nice Plays:

Robinson Cano made a nice ranging play on a hopper far to his left. Mark Teixeira saved a wild throw by Alex Rodriguez and got the out call, though his foot appeared to leave the bag before the catch.

Battles:

Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner both went 0-for-2, but Melky’s two were weak groundouts, while Gardner was robbed of a double in the right field gap in his second trip when the swirling winds blew his hit back toward a diving Ray Sadler in center. Gardner tried to bunt for a hit in his first at-bat, but didn’t get the ball far enough away from home plate and was easily thrown out by former Yankee farmhand Michel Hernandez. Gardner also showed good range in the field. Xavier Nady hit a ground rule double down the right-field line in two at-bats. Phil Coke pitched two scoreless innings, suggesting he might be in the mix for the long-man position, which would be a good solution to that problem. Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo both pitched perfect innings late in the game. Melancon got two outs on the ground and the third by strikeout, but didn’t look terribly impressive to me, pitching deep into counts and sitting around 90-91 mph with his fastball. Albaladejo got two of three outs on the ground and had a few extra ticks on the gun.

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The Yankees are running out their starters (save the rehabbing Hideki Matsui) for their first home game of the spring today at 1:15 against the Rays. This will also be the first televised Yankee game of the spring. Unfortunately, my laptop died last week and the new one’s still on order, so my traditional liveblog will have to wait until later in the spring schedule.

In the meantime, you can listen to my appearance on Kenrick Thomas’s Real Sports Talk podcast from last night here (I’m the first guest).

Also, with the arrival of the games, we here at the Banter have finally put together some guidelines for commenting on this site. The post below, which will be permanently linked on the sidebar, includes instructions on using HTML codes in your posts, but is also a code of conduct (adapted from that of our longtime colleague Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts).  We ask that everyone, new and old, familiarize themselves with these guidelines so as to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve become accustomed to here at Bronx Banter.

The Yankees kicked off their exhibition schedule this afternoon with an easy 6-1 win on the road against the Blue Jays, though neither team played their full set of starters.

Lineup:

L – Brett Gardner (CF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
R – Shelley Duncan (DH)
L – Juan Miranda (1B)
S – Todd Linden (LF)
R – Kevin Cash (C)

Subs: Justin Leone (1B), Cody Ransom (2B), Ramiro Peña (SS), Kevin Russo (3B), P.J. Pilittere (C), Colin Curtis (RF), Austin Jackson (CF), John Rodriguez (LF), Jesus Montero (DH)

Pitchers: Brett Tomko, Jose Veras, Dan Giese, Kei Igawa, Christian Garcia, Michael Dunn, Steven Jackson, David Robertson

Opposition: The Jay’s B-squad

Big Hits:

Brett Gardner (1-for-3) led off the game by hitting Brett Cecil’s second pitch over the right-field wall. Alex Rodriguez (1-for-1, 2 BBs) added a two-run jack off Rickey Romero in the fourth. Robinson Cano and Austin Jackson (both 1-for-2) both doubled. Todd Linden (1-for-3) picked up an RBI single against B.J. Ryan. Kevin Cash went 2-for-3 and stole a base.

Who Pitched Well:

Everyone except Jose Veras. The other seven pitchers combined for eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk.

Who Didn’t:

Jose Veras gave up the lone Blue Jay run in the third on a one-out John McDonald double, a hit batsman, a wild pitch, and a sac fly. He then walked two batters before getting out of the inning.

Battles:

Gardner‘s home run was no small thing. Last year he hit just three home runs between the minors and majors, spring training included. Cecil, meanwhile, allowed just six in 118 1/3 innings. Kevin Long’s been working with Gardner to get his legs into his swing. If Gardner can hit for power this spring, he’ll take the center field job with ease. His throwing error came on a strong throw to the plate that just happened to hit the runner. Swisher affirmed his ability to reach base at a high rate by drawing two walks, but didn’t hit a ball fair in three trips, striking out in his other turn at-bat. Veras put himself in an early hole in the bullpen battle, but David Robertson was also wild in his one inning of work (issuing a walk and uncorking a wild pitch). Pete Abe reports that Robertson loaded the bases in the ninth. I assume two of the Yankees’ other three errors (one by Leone, the other two on throws by Peña and Russo) were involved. Veras and Robertson did combine for four of the Yankees’ seven strikeouts, but  Steven Jackson was perfect, getting two groundouts and a strikeout.

More:

• Melky Cabrera has switched to Bobby Abreu’s old number 53.
• I’ll be on Kenrick Thomas’s Real Sports Talk podcast tonight at 10pm. Give a listen.

The Yankees start their spring schedule this afternoon in Dunedin, where they’ll face the Blue Jays starting at 1:05. The game won’t be televised, on the radio, or even available via on-line gamecast, but you can follow it via Peter Abraham’s liveblog over at LoHud. Joe Girardi is running out his B-team, save for the three WBC participants (Jeter, Cano, and Alex Rodriguez). Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher get the starts in center and right. Brett Tomko will take the mound to start.

Check back this afternoon for my recap of the game.

Meanwhile, here’s a recap of some of the things we’ve learned since camp opened:

Injuries: There’s been nothing but good news on the four recovering Yankees. Chien-Ming Wang has experienced no pain in his foot. Jorge Posada has been stretching out his arm without discomfort. Hideki Matsui and Mariano Rivera are coming along more slowly, but without cause for concern. In Rivera’s case, the slow progression is typical of how he gets ready in the spring, as he tends to throw most of his spring innings in the second half of March.

Aches and Pains: Edwar Ramirez has been shut down for a few days with shoulder bursitis. Otherwise, there have just been a few sore hamstrings (Jeter, Marte) and a couple of stomach flues (Sabathia, Cervelli), but nothing thus far that has effected a player’s availability for more than a day or two.

Lineup: Mark Teixeira will bat third ahead of Alex Rodriguez. Hideki Matsui will be the DH making only “emergency” appearances in the field. Neither of these things were unexpected.

Rotation: Joe Girardi just announced today that the opening rotation, barring injury, will be Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain. That order properly staggers the lefties and pitching styles the five starters and puts Chamberlain in the five spot where he can be skipped occasionally to keep his innings down. That said, Girardi also said the plan is for Chamberlain to make about 30 starts. At an average of six innings a start, that would be 180 innings–too many coming off a seasons of 112 1/3 in 2007 and 100 1/3 last year.

Bullpen: Really, the only thing we’ve learned about the ‘pen is that Phil Coke will not be starting, but will indeed be in the mix as a reliever. That doesn’t mean he’s made the team (though he has an excellent chance of doing so), only that the Yankees have recognized where he’s most valuable to them. We’ve also been told the Yankees intend to take a long reliever north, but I think that would be a mistake and will believe it when I see it.

Finally, there was one piece of news that was bigger than baseball, that being Jason Johnson’s optical cancer. After experiencing blury vision, Johnson got himself checked and caught the tumor early enough that his doctors were able to quickly get the disease under control, delaying his arrival to camp only briefly. Johnson’s disease doesn’t change the fact that he has no business being in camp with the Yankees, but while I won’t be rooting for him on the field, I’ll be rooting hard for him off of it. You can read more on Johnson from my good friend, optical cancer survivor Steven Goldman.

Unlike the center-field battle in which the prize is a full-time starting job with the loser likely to be banished to Triple-A, the far end of the bench, or perhaps even another organization, the battle between Swisher and Nady is simply over who will have the upper hand in right field. Regardless of the outcome this spring, both are likely to make more than 400 plate appearances this year.

That said, Nady, who was acquired at the trading deadline last year and finished the season as the Yankees’ left fielder, entered camp as Bobby Abreu’s successor in right field. It will be up to Nick Swisher, acquired in a November trade with the White Sox, to prove to Joe Girardi and his staff that he is the superior option for right field, which, truth be told, he is.

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With the Grapefruit League schedule kicking off on Wednesday, I wanted to take these last two day of inaction to take a look at the key position battles being waged in Yankee camp. I’ll start today with the most significant: the center-field battle between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner.

First the tale of the tape:

Cabrera is theoretically the incumbent, but Gardner started in center in 12 of the Yankees’ last 15 games of 2008 after Cabrera effectively lost the center field job in early August. Cabrera made just five starts in center after August 3 and was even demoted to Triple-A for three weeks and recalled only after rosters expanded in September. In that sense, Gardner is the incumbent, but really, despite the large discrepancy in their major league service time, neither player entered camp with the upper hand in this battle.

This battle is topsy-turvy in other ways. For example, the less experienced Gardner is the win-now player given his minor league promise of solid on-base numbers (.389 mL career OBP), excellent defense, and spectacular speed on the bases (153 minor league stolen bases at an 83% success rate, 13 for 14 on the bases in the majors). Meanwhile, the appeal of Cabrera, the experienced major leaguer, is his potential. Cabrera has shown flashes of power at the plate, particularly early last season when he slugged .505 with six homers through May 4. Cabrera is unlikely to ever develop into a serious home-run threat, but Gardner is a pure slap hitter, with just nine career home runs as a pro and an isolated slugging in the minors of just .094. Gardner seems unlikely to ever hit for much power, but there remains some hope that Cabrera, who is a year younger, may yet blossom into a complete hitter.

The problem is that Cabrera’s performance on the field has been heading in the opposite direction. Cabrera hit .280/.360/.391 as a rookie left fielder in 2006, displaying solid plate discipline for a 21-year-old as well as some doubles power (26 in 524 PA) and falling just short of a league-average performance overall. In 2007, however, his plate discipline melted away without a corresponding increase in power (.273/.327/.391), and last year, after that hot start, he simply stopped hitting, batting .235/.280/.286 from May 5 through the end of the season, a line worse than Gardner’s seemingly pathetic rookie showing.

Given that Gardner was just breaking into the majors last year, been reliably productive in the minors, and seemed to heat up at the end of last season, hitting .294/.333/.412 in 73 PA his second of two major league stints, there’s every reason to believe that Gardner will significantly improve on his overall major league line if given the chance this season, but given Cabrera’s steady regression, there are far fewer reasons to continue to believe in Melky. It’s not as though Melky does anything else better than Gardner. Melky can steal bases, but he might steal 15, while Gardner could easily steal more than 50 and lead the league if he starts every day, and he’ll do it at a higher success rate than Cabrera’s. Melky has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, but Gardner, thanks in part to his superior speed, is going to turn more balls into outs in center, just as he’s likely to make fewer outs at the plate.

According to Dave Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range, Melky was the best defensive left fielder in baseball in 2006 but has displayed merely average range in center over the last two years. Gardner did not play enough to register on Pinto’s major league-only system, but per Ultimate Zone Rating, Gardner’s defense in center was worth  9.1 runs to Melky’s pedestrian 0.6 last year, a remarkable stat given that Gardner played just 160 2/3 innings in center for the Yankees, while Melky played 973 2/3. Of course, the small sample warnings about Gardner’s major league statistics are particularly acute when it comes to fielding, both because he spent a significant chunk of his first major league stint in left, and because fielding stats are so suspect to start with. It would be cherry-picking to write off Gardner’s poor performance at the plate in the majors as a small sample while emphasizing his absurd advantage over Cabrera in UZR. That said, what I saw watching the games supported the statistics’ assertion that Gardner has the superior range in center. Cabrera still has the better arm, but not by as much as one might think;  Gardner recorded four assists in his 22 major league games in center, showing a strong and accurate throwing arm that opposing runners would be ill-advised to test.

So Melky’s case comes down to power and potential, and it seems unlikely that he has shown enough of either to outweigh Gardner’s advantages on the bases, in the field, and in getting on-base. Melky’s 2008 season cracked the lenses of the rose-colored glasses that looked at his first two seasons and saw shades of fellow switch-hitting center fielder Bernie Williams’ early-career struggles. Bernie didn’t really start to come on until his age-25 season, which would give Cabrera another year, but it’s hard now look at the stocky, stumbling Cabrera and see any resemblance to the fawn-like awkwardness of the blossoming Bernie.

Hitting coach Kevin Long seems to believe that he can get Gardner to hit with doubles power by increasing the involvement of Gardner’s lower body in his swing. If Gardner shows any signs of proving Long right this spring, the job should be his. The catch is that, due to Cabrera’s pennant-race demotion last year, Melky is now out of options, meaning the Yankees would have to either keep him on the 25-man roster as a fifth outfielder (a platoon with Gardner wouldn’t work–Melky hit just .213/.279/.299 against lefties last year and has hit just .251/.319/.329 against southpaws in his major league career, while Gardner actually had a reverse split in Triple-A last year), or expose him to waivers in an attempt to outright him to Scranton. The latter would almost surely result in Cabrera being claimed by another team. The Yankees avoided arbitration by signing Cabrera to a $1.4 million contract last month, which would seem to strongly indicate that the Yankees have no intention of divesting themselves of Cabrera, but as a fifth-outfielder, Cabrera would be  a drain on the roster and would stand little chance of restarting his development. Then again, perhaps that $1.4 million price tag is just enough to prevent the sort of team that might make a claim on Cabrera from doing so. If Cabrera can’t win the center field job in camp, that may be a chance the Yankees have to take, particularly with Austin Jackson headed for Triple-A already having already unseated Cabrera as the team’s Center Fielder of the Future.

Alex and Diane have done such a great job covering the Alex Rodriguez fiasco that I’ve been loathe to chime in with my, largely identical, reactions, but in light of Rodriguez’s confession to Peter Gammons last week, I wanted to take a look at the seasons during which Rodriguez admitted he had experimented with banned substances to see what impact, if any, those substances had on his on-field performance. The result was an article published over at SI.com at the end of last week.

Spoiler alert:

. . . if he is indeed telling the truth about his drug use being limited to his three years in Texas, the only noticeable benefit that Rodriguez derived from his experimentations with banned substances was his ability to play 485 of the Rangers’ 486 games during his three years with the club. That’s no small thing. There are some who believe that the most undervalued statistic in baseball is games played. It’s irrefutable that Rodriguez’s ability to take the field every day as a Ranger enabled him to put up the remarkable counting stats he compiled in a Texas uniform, chief among them his 57 home runs in 2002. Still, there’s no evidence that the drugs made him any more powerful, and significant evidence that his rate of production actually declined during what he claims were his doping years.

Meanwhile, feel free to use this post as a disussion thread for Alex Rodriguez’s Tampa press conference set to begin at 1:30 pm today.

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A year ago, the Yankees entered camp with a new manager and coaching staff, but a roster that barely differed from one they took into the 2007 playoffs. Having spent this past October at home while several of their most expensive player contracts expired (including those of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, and Carl Pavano), the Yankees enter spring training 2009 with a new look. Just 19 of the 25 spots on the Opening Day roster appear set, and of those 19, four are filled by players acquired this offseason, while two others are filled by players acquired at last year’s trading deadline. The 19 men who will fill those spots are:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Xavier Nady (R)
LF – Johnny Damon (L)
DH – Hideki Matsui (L)

Bench:

S – Nick Swisher (OF/1B)
S – Melky Cabrera (OF)
R – Jose Molina (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – Chien-Ming Wang
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
R – Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Brian Bruney
L – Damaso Marte

Even among these 19, there are battles to be waged. Xavier Nady, who was acquired along with Damaso Marte in a trade with the Pirates at last year’s deadline, enters camp as the intended successor to Bobby Abreu in right field, but Nick Swisher, acquired from the White Sox in a mid-November trade, is the superior player and seems likely to open the season as no worse than the strong-side of a right-field platoon with Nady provided he can prove in camp that his poor 2008 campaign was a fluke.

Similarly, Melky Cabrera is only among the 19 above because he’s out of options. I didn’t list him as the starting center fielder because Cabrera will spend spring training engaged trying to reclaim the middle pasture from Brett Gardner. It’s not entirely out of the question for Gardner to win that battle in a landslide and for the Yankees to spend the final weeks of spring training weighing the risks of trading or outrighting their former Center Fielder of the Future.

Thus it’s with Gardner that I begin my sixth annual look at the Yankees campers. The Yankees will fill the six vacant spots on their Opening Day roster from among the 45 players below, most likely by selecting a pair of position players (a utility infielder and either Gardner or a third catcher) and four relievers.

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I’ve posted some version of this chart twice before, but now that the Yankees have wrapped up their arbitration cases, I thought I’d update it one last time, adding Andy Pettitte’s new deal and the 2008 dollars spent on LaTroy Hawkins, which I erroneously left out of my previous two bits of accounting.

Note that I’m assuming that Pettitte will achieve all of his bonuses (which he will if he stays off the DL and throws 210 innings). As for Hawkins, the Yankees traded him to the Astros at the trading deadline last year and picked up a “significant portion” of his remaining salary of the deal. In the absence of the specific numbers, I’m assuming they paid all of his $3.75 million salary last year. Most likely the bonuses Pettitte fails to reach (2009 dollars) will be balanced out by the portion of Hawkins’ 2008 salary paid by the Astros (2008  dollars). The chart doesn’t include service-time increases to pre-arbitration players such as Joba Chamberlain and the middle relievers, but those will likely total less than a million dollars.

all costs in millions of dollars; *estimated prorated portion of 2008 salary

So the end result of all of the Yankees’ offseason spending is a roughly $19 million increase in payroll. Of course, the Yankees have hidden that increase by shifting 14 million of the dollars owed to CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira this year into their signing bonuses, which the club doesn’t count as payroll, but I do (all figures above include any relevant portions of signing bonuses).

Here’s the result of that $19 million increase (ages as of April 15 in parentheses):

• Mark Teixeira (29) replaces Jason Giambi (38)
• CC Sabathia (28) replaces Mike Mussina (40)
• A.J. Burnett (32) replaces Carl Pavano (33)
• Xavier Nady (30) replaces Bobby Abreu (35)
• Nick Swisher (28) replaces Wilson Betemit (27)
• Damaso Marte (34)  replaces Kyle Farnsworth (33)

Not bad at all.

It sure took them long enough, but the Yankees finally came to terms with Andy Pettitte yesterday, re-signing the veteran lefty to a one-year deal with a base salary of $5.5 million and incentives that could make the deal worth as much as $12 million. With that, the Yankees have the final piece of their 2009 rotation in place. Here’s a quick look at the Yankees’ projected starting five along with my thoroughly un-scientific innings and ERA projections for each pitcher:

Quibble with those projections however you want, but consider what they add up to: 975 innings of a 3.73 ERA. Last year the collected Yankee starters–that is every pitcher who started for the team all year, not just the top five–combined for just 898 1/3 innings and a 4.58 ERA. Meanwhile, team that got the best performance out of it’s starting pitchers in 2008 was the Toronto Blue Jays, whose starters combined for 1,012 2/3 innings of a 3.72 ERA. Given that, the Yankees could have the best rotation in baseball even with that underwhelming performance from A.J. Burnett, average performances from Pettitte and Wang, and the limit placed on Chamberlain’s innings total. The catch is that their two top rivals for baseball’s best rotation are the Rays (with David Price taking over for Edwin Jackson) and Red Sox.

Note that I expect Chamberlain, not Pettitte, to be the Yankees’ fifth starter because of the limit the Yankees will need to place on his innings. Chamberlain threw 100 1/3 innings last year. Tom Verducci’s Rule of 30 would suggest a cap of 130 innings this year, but I expect the Yankees’ cap to be around 150 frames, and for Chamberlain to surpass that slighly due to a solid performance. The one remaining flaw in Chamberlain’s game is an inefficiency stemming from his being both a strikeout pitcher and one who walked 3.5 men per nine innings last year. That inneficiency will likely limit him to an average of six innings per start (which is exactly what he averaged in the nine starts prior to his shoulder injury last year). At that rate, he could make 26 starts this year and still have thrown just 156 innings. If the Yankees keep him in the fifth spot and use the odd off-day to skip his turn, he should come in right on target.

Meanwhile, with Pettitte having now rounded out the rotation, Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves become replacement starters rather than potential fifth-starters. That’s good news for the Yankees as there’s a decent chance that at least one of the pitchers in the chart above will wind up throwing as many as 100 innings less than I’ve projected for him due to injury. Aceves is a classic sixth starter, a crafty, junkballing righty who relies heavily on his defense and staying one pitch ahead of the hitter. In scout speak, Aceves has great pitchability, but not much stuff. He’s not far removed from the pitcher he’s replacing in the organization, Darrell Rasner, and is thus better suited as a replacement than one of the organization’s top five starters.

Hughes, of course, is still a top prospect, but even before Pettitte signed, I felt that Hughes needed to start the year in Triple-A and spend a couple of months just getting his legs under him and his confidence up so that he could return to the majors with some momentum rather than start the year trying once again to prove he deserved to break camp with the big club. Remember, Hughes has made just two major league starts since last April, and while he was excellent in the second of those two, essentially beating A.J. Burnett head-to-head (though Jose Veras wound up with the win), it came in late September against a long-since eliminated Blue Jays team. Hughes developed a strong cut fastball while rehabbing his broken rib last year and pitched well, if inconsistently, in the Arizona Fall League. With Pettitte in place, Phil can now build on those two developments at Triple-A in the hope of becoming a mid-season injury replacement (I didn’t write “for Burnett,” but I thought it) and forcing Joe Girardi to make a tough decision in the second half. Remember, Hughes won’t be 23 until last June. He still has plenty of time to make the transition from Triple-A to the majors.

While I’m on the topic, I might as well address Ian Kennedy. I don’t think Kennedy, who is a year and a half Hughes’ senior, was ever going to be in the picture for the big league rotation this spring. He did enough to discourage Girardi and the team last year that he wasn’t even brought back as a September call-up. Kennedy needs to spend the year at Scranton letting his pitching do the talking and hoping for a chance to make his case for the 2010 rotation in September. The good news on Kennedy is that he supposedly found a new way to throw his curve after working with Scranton pitching coach Rafael Chaves last year and dominated the Puerto Rican winter league with the pitch. Kennedy’s big problem last year was his refusal/inability to use his curve in his major league stints, making him a very hittable two-pitch fastball/changeup pitcher without much heat on his heater and a resulting tendency to shy away from contact. If the improvement in his curve proves sustainable, he may well revive his prospect status, making the A.J. Burnett contract all the more regrettable for expensively clogging up the rotation.

Still, taking the short-term view, it’s hard to complain about the Yankees’ top five starters entering the season. The Yankees haven’t had an Opening Day rotation this strong since they were making annual trips to the World Series. They’ve paid a lot for the priviledge, but it just might pay off.

My latest for SI.com looks at the Braves’ new rotation in the wake of the Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami signings, including a scouting report on the 33-year-old Japanese import. Toward the end, I summarize the remaining free agent market for starting pitchers in two paragraphs:

After [Oliver] Perez and [Ben] Sheets, there’s only a handful of veterans that could be considered remotely reliable signings. That group includes Andy Pettitte, who continues to play chicken with the Yankees over a one-year deal, Paul Byrd, Randy Wolf, whose name frequently surfaces as a back-up option, Braden Looper and Jon Garland. Of those five, however, only Looper posted an ERA better than league average last year.

Beyond that group there’s a series of bad bets, be it on aging stars who’d be better off retiring (Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Kenny Rogers, Orlando Hernandez), the perpetually injured (Jason Jennings, Mark Mulder, Bartolo Colon), roster fillers (Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson, Josh Fogg, Josh Towers) or assorted castoffs who will be lucky to land a non-roster invitation to camp (Steve Trachsel, Jeff Weaver, Kip Wells, Mark Redman, Matt Belisle, Esteban Loaiza, Kris Benson).

I realize now I left Odalis Perez and Jon Lieber out of the list of roster fillers and failed to find a place for Freddy Garcia. Nonetheless, that’s about it. In fact, you can cross Prior off the list, as he’s landed back with the Padres on a minor league deal. So, do you think the dearth of alternatives gives Pettitte any leverage over the Yanks? Should they peel off and sign Ben Sheets or Braden Looper before they’re forced to overpay for one of the next five or turn to one of the bad bets? Or should they walk away now and let Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes, and company fight it out over the fifth spot in the rotation?

When I first started following the Yankees, their lineup began with Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly, and Dave Winfield. Though Winfield was my favorite player, Mattingly was the most popular, and Randolph was the two-time World Champion veteran, Rickey Henderson likely did more to cultivate my love of baseball than any of the other three. Time and again, Rickey would lead off the game with a walk or a single, steal second, move to third on a productive out by Randolph, and score on a single or sac fly by Mattingly or Winfield. The exceptions were when Rickey would lead off the game with a homer, something he did 81 times in his career, or when he’d steal both second and third, letting Randolph drive him in. In 596 games as a Yankee, Henderson scored 513 runs, drew 406 walks, and stole 326 bases.

Fourteen years after Henderson was traded back to the A’s, Rickey was playing for the Newark Bears, the independent Altantic League team owned by his former Yankee teammate Rick Cerone. I remember reading that Rickey’s monthly salary from the Bears didn’t even cover the rent for the Manhattan apartment he was living in at the time. Rickey was ostensibly playing to get one more shot at the major leagues, but he had already set career records in stolen bases, runs, and walks, and owned 3,040 major league hits. Though he did finish the 2003 season by playing his final 30 major league games for the Dodgers, Rickey was playing to play, just as he did two years later with the San Diego Surf Dawgs.

One weekend in July of 2003, I went with a friend’s brother’s bachelor party to see Rickey play for the Bears against the Mitch Williams-managed Atlantic City Surf. Rickey was having a ball. Before the game he took time out to sign autographs along the first base line.

During the top of the first he chatted and joked with the fans along the left field line between pitches.

Then he led off the bottom of the first.

Just as he had for the Yankees, Rickey walked . . .

Stole second . . .

. . . moved to third on the catcher’s errant throw, and, following a walk to the second-place hitter, scored on a fielder’s choice to the shortstop.

Three batters into the game, I had already gotten my money’s worth.

Not long after that game, Henderson signed with the Dodgers. On September 13, 2003, Henderson pinch-hit for Guillermo Mota in the seventh inning of a game between the Dodgers and Giants at Dodger Stadium. Rickey was hit by a pitch, moved to second on a bunt, to third on a groundout, and scored on a Shawn Green single. He was then replaced by Paul Quantrill, who came in to pitch the next inning. The last thing Rickey Henderson ever did in the major leagues was score a run. As it should have been.

all photographs (c) Clifford J. Corcoran; click to enlarge

Are the Boston Red Sox filling out their roster or casting a Celebrity Rehab spin-off focused on sports injuries?
. . .
It could be that they’re just being smart. Those four players are each signed to incentive-laden one-year contracts that will cost the Red Sox a base total of $12.2 million, or $4.25 million less than the Yankees will pay the injury-prone A.J. Burnett in the first year of his five-year contract (or, to turn the tables on Boston, just $200,000 more than they’ll pay the rapidly-aging Mike Lowell in the second year of his three-year contract).

Read the rest of my take on the Sox recent spate of roster moves (as well as the Trevor Hoffman-to-Milwaukee deal) on SI.com.

Don’t look now, but the Rays have done an excellent job of restocking on the cheap for another run in 2009. As I write in my new piece over on SI.com on the Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell deals:

[w]ith Price, Burrell and the Joyce/Perez platoon representing significant upgrades on Jackson, Floyd, Gross and assorted fill-ins, the Rays could very well repeat or even improve on their surprising 2008 showing, much the way the 1992 Braves surpassed their worst-to-first showing the previous year.

Indeed, with Upton, 24, having regained his home run stroke in the postseason following a year in which his power had been sapped by a torn labrum, Longoria entering his first full season after being named AL Rookie of the Year and Crawford looking to bounce back entering his walk year, the Rays could experience a significant increase in their run scoring in 2009, while a strong rookie season from Price, 23, would help balance out any regression experienced by the other starters. Meanwhile, having the right-handed Burrell in a lineup with fellow righty sluggers Upton and Longoria makes the Rays well-prepared for their impending AL East showdowns with lefty aces CC Sabathia of the Yankees and Jon Lester of the Red Sox following a season in which Tampa Bay struggled against lefty starters. Thus, in part due to their sizeable head-start, the Rays have kept pace with the Yankees’ $423.5 million spending spree at the low, low cost of $16 million.

The MLB Network launches this evening at 6pm (EST) and will celebrate by airing the unedited original broadcast of Don Larson’s perfect game (including original commercials!) at 7pm, the first time it has been shown to a mass audience since it happened 52 years ago. You can find the new network’s location in your channel lineup by using MLB’s channel locator here. Unfortunately, my TV has been on the fritz for a couple of days, so I’ll miss the whole shebang. Someone watch it and let me know what happens, will ya?

I take a look at the Brian Fuentes signing over at SI.com today and conclude that, while that’s all well and good, the Angels sure could use some more offense now that Mark Teixeira is a Yankee. Or, to use my own words:

If Angels fans want a cause to get behind, they should lobby their team to add a bat so that Fuentes, Arredondo and company actually have some leads to protect. By signing Fuentes, the Angels have filled their cart, but they’re still in need of a horse.

I explore the similarities between the Yankee and Red Sox rotations in my new piece analyzing Boston’s deal with Brad Penny for SI.com. Check it out.

Here’s an update of the chart I posted two weeks ago comparing the Yankees’ 2008 payroll to their 2009 commitments:

all costs in millions of dollars; *estimated prorated portion of 2008 salary

As you can see, even after signing CC Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees’ commitments for 2009 are still within $4 million of their 2008 payroll. That number will increase. Coming off a career year, Xavier Nady will earn a few million more via arbitration (Brian Bruney and Melky Cabrera are also arb-eligible, but unlikely to get significant raises), and there’s still a chance that the Yankees will add payroll via a one-year deal for Andy Pettitte or an alternate fifth-starter or a veteran center fielder. There are also automatic incremental raises due to the team’s pre-arbitration players based on major league playing time. Even still, the net change in team payroll will be negligible relative to the massive dollar figures connected to those three new contracts.

It’s also worth noting that Burnett and Sabathia will earn the exact same amount in each year of their contracts (for Sabathia his 2009 earnings combine a $9 million signing bonus and a $14 million salary, but his salary in every other year of the contract is an even $23 million), while Mark Teixeira will actually earn less in the subsequent years of his contract as his 2009 earnings combine a $5 million signing bonus and a $20 million salary, but he’ll earn “just” $20 million in 2010 and $22.5 million in each subsequent year of his deal.

What’s my take on the Yankees signing Mark Teixeira? Regular readers might already know:

• Who should the Yankees sign? Mark Teixeira.
• What if it’s between CC and Tex? I want Tex.
• They signed CC. I still want Tex. I’m not kidding.
• They signed A.J. Burnett. There’s still a chance to sign Tex.

Some samples from the above:

Teixeira was third among major league first basemen in VORP last year, behind only a pair of monster seasons by Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. Pujols is the best player in baseball, an institution in St. Louis, and signed through 2011 (if you count the club option that is all but guaranteed to be picked up). He’s also the same age as Teixeira. Berkman will be 33 on Opening Day, and is also signed through 2011 (again counting a club option for the final year). Over the past four seasons, Teixeira has averaged 55.05 VORP per season. Last year the only other first baseman to surpass that mark was Kevin Youkilis, who is 11 months older than Teixeira.

Though the Yankees are flush with pitching prospects, outside of Montero, they don’t have any coming mashers in their system. Teixeira was fifth among all hitters in baseball in VORP last year. He’s also a superb defender, and won’t turn 29 until April. Prior to this past season, PECOTA projected that Teixeira would hit .284/.384/.502 in his age-34 season in 2014. Teixeira then beat his PECOTA projection for 2008. A seven year contract that would take Teixeira through age 35 would not be a bad investment.

The Yankee system is nearly barren when it comes to everyday player prospects. Center fielder Austin Jackson is the only notable hitting prospect in the organization to have played above the Sally League, and catcher Jesus Montero is the only prospect in the system who projects as an elite run producer at the plate. . . . Whenever an elite run producer becomes available while still in his 20s, the Yankees absolutely must prioritize that player in order to compensate for their failure to properly stock the farm system with bats. When such a player becomes available at a position of existing need at the major league level, as is the case with Mark Teixeira this offseason, the Yankees have an obligation to their fans and the future of the franchise to sign that player.

It’s quite possible that none of the young pitchers listed above will mature into the sort of dominant ace that CC Sabathia has become, but then again, one might. In fact, more than one might. There is, however, no chance of any player in the Yankee farm system maturing into an all-around defensive and offensive weapon on par with Mark Teixeira. If Brian Cashman is serious about the team-building process he began in the winter of 2005, if Hal Steinbrenner is serious about allowing Cashman to execute his vision, the Yankees must immediately revamp their plans to focus on signing Teixeira.

L – Johnny Damon (LF)
R – Derek Jeter (SS)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Hideki Matsui (DH)
S/R – Swisher/Nady (RF)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
L – Brett Gardner (CF)

Take Teixeira out of that lineup and it’s not a pretty picture given the 2008 performances of Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Gardner and the advancing age of Damon, Jeter, Posada, and Matsui. . . . Oh, and before I go, here’s one more lineup to consider:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Kevin Youkilis (3B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Jason Bay (LF)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
S – Jed Lowrie (SS)
Does it really matter? (C)

That can’t be allowed to happen.

The ideal solution to the Yankees’ production problems would be Mark Teixeira, a player who fits the Yankees’ needs about as perfectly as can be given his position, youth, and defensive reputation, the last of which stands in stark contrast to the Yankees 13th place finish in defensive efficiency among AL teams in 2008. With Sabathia off the market, Teixeira is now the belle of the free agent ball, and while it would be obscene for the Yankees to land both CC and Tex, modesty didn’t stop them from giving Burnett an obscene contract.

. . .

Still, even after the Burnett signing, chasing Teixeira is not out of the question for the Yankees. With big contracts including those of Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Pavano, and the retired Mike Mussina coming off the books, the Yankees still have, by my math, $23.5 left over from their 2008 payroll, which is very close to the average annual salary Teixeira’s is likely to make under his next contract, which is likely to resemble Sabathia’s and its $23 million annual average.

Would the Yankees dare hand out another nine-figure deal after spending $242.5 million on a pair of starting pitchers? Stay tuned.

The figure in that last sentence should say $243.5 million, but throw that out; it’s now $423.5 million, nearly half-a-billion dollars, for three players. That’s obscene, but Alex addressed my liberal guilt already, so I’ll not dwell on it. The reality of the situation is that, per the figures quoted above, the Yankees’ 2009 payroll is still roughly equivalent to their 2008 payroll, only the team has redirected the money they had been spending on aging players (including the declining and defensively challenged Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, the 40-year-old Mike Mussina, and the comically fragile Carl Pavano) to a 29-year-old lefty who is arguably the best pitcher in the game, a 29-year-old switch-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman who is among the most productive hitters in the game, and, well, A.J. Burnett (can’t win ’em all). So, really, the Yankees’ spending is no more obscene than it was before they handed out these three contracts, it’s just a lot smarter (well, at least 67% smarter).

I think it’s worth pointing out that, because Teixeira has switched leagues mid-season each of the last two years, his two best seasons have been somewhat obscured. He won the Gold Glove in his last two single-league seasons (2005 and 2006), and in his last two campaigns posted these lines:

2007: .306/.400/.563 (150 OPS+), 30 HR, 105 RBI, 53.1 VORP
2008: .308/.410/.552 (151 OPS+), 33 HR, 121 RBI, 67.7 VORP

In 2008, he also drew 97 walks against 93 strikeouts. Oh, and on his career he’s slugging exactly .541 against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.

Really, the only reason not to like the Teixeira deal is the length of the contract, but Tex will still be just 36 in the eighth and final year of the deal. By comparison, Jason Giambi was 37 last year and hit .247/.373/.502. Teixeira’s ex-teammate and fellow switch-hitter Chipper Jones was 36 last year and hit .364/.470/.574.  Here’s a quick look at the age-36 seasons of the top seven players listed as most similar to Teixeira at his current age 28 on Baseball-Reference:

• Carlos Delgado: bounced back from a league-average age-35 season to hit .271/.353/.518. Never had an OPS+ below 129 from ages 28 to 34.
• Kent Hrbek: retired after a poor age-34 season.
• Fred McGriff: Production fell off after age 30, but stayed comfortably above average. Hit .277/.373/.452 at age 36.
• Jim Thome: Save for a season lost to a broken hand, mashed every year through to his .275/.410/.563 performance at age 36.
• Will Clark: Had just one OPS+ below 123 from age 30 to 36; went out with a flourish as he retired after a .319/.418/.546 performance at age 36.
• Jeff Bagwell: First OPS+ below 135 came in age-35 season. Hit .266/.377/.465 at age 36.
• Willie McCovey: Often on DL after age 32, but other than his age-34 season, was still mashing when healthy. Hit .253/.416/.506 in 344 at-bats at age 36.

I’d rate those as four positive indicators (Delgado, Thome, Clark, Bagwell), one negative (Hrbek), and two middling (McGriff with McCovey only because of the injuries).

As mentioned above, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, which projects players’ future performance based on the careers of similar players throughout the history of the game, predicted prior to last season that Teixeira would stay healthy and productive through to a .284/.384/.502 performance at age-34 (the PECOTA Cards only show the ensuing seven years). Teixeira has since beaten his PECOTA projection for 2008.

You can never know what will happen in the future. All long-term contracts are risks, but it seems to me that Teixeira is among the best bets in baseball to still be healthy and productive eight years from now. As for 2009, he’s exactly the player the Yankees need. The only catch is that having landed both CC and Tex, they’ll have no excuses if they fail to win it all next year, but then, that’s the way they like it.

. . .

By the way, Alex shot me a note to let me know that Todd Drew had his surgery yesterday. All went smoothly and he is recovering nicely. The Yankees signing Teixeira is nice and all, but getting a good word on Todd was the best news of the day, and the real reason that Christmas came early here at the Banter.

The Yankees have signed Chien-Ming Wang to a $5 million contract for the 2009, thereby avoiding arbitration with the first of their four arb-eligible players (Xavier Nady, Melky Cabrera, and Brian Bruney are the other three). The contract in and of itself is insignificant. Wang made $4 million last year, but missed the second half of the season with a lisfranc fracture in his foot and thus only got a $1 million raise. No big deal. I do, however, find the Yankees’ treatment of Wang’s arbitration years interesting.

Last year, Wang and Robinson Cano both became eligible for arbitration for the first time. With Cano asking for $4.55 million in 2008, the Yankees decided to buy out his arbitration years entirely with a four-year, $30 million contract. Wang, meanwhile, asked for $4.6 million and the Yankees took him to arbitration to save $600,000 and beat him.

To me, that says alot about the Yankees’ relative enthusiasm for these two players. That’s not to say that they don’t value Wang on a year-to-year basis, but Wang is 2 1/2 years older than Cano and, while its easy to forget even following his foot injury this past season, he has a less than rosy injury history.

Way back in 2001, labrum surgery cost Wang all of his second professional season, forcing him to restart at short-season Staten Island at age 22 in 2002. In his rookie season of 2005, he was shut down in mid-July with another labrum scare that, fortunately, turned out to be solved by his simply spending two months on the DL. In 2007, he started the season on the DL with a hamstring strain suffered in spring training, and last year he broke his foot running the bases in Houston, ending his season after just 15 starts. Thus, Wang has avoided the DL in just one of his four major league seasons.

Beyond those injuries, Wang is also sometimes looked upon with suspicion because of his poor strikeout rates. He has been able to succeed despite striking out just 4.02 men per nine inning on his career (against a league average of 6.48) because of his extreme ground-ball rate, but there’s a sense that that balance will not hold indefinitely. Fortunately, Wang managed to increase his strikeout rate in both 2007 and 2008, topping out at 5.12 K/9 last year thanks to the coaching of Dave Eiland, who had him working in more sliders when he needed a K. Unfortunately, Wang’s walk rates have risen as well, so that his K/BB ratio has held relatively steady near his career sub-par 1.58 mark (league average is 2.01).

On top of concerns about his fragility and effectiveness, there’s age. Wang was 25 as a rookie and will be 29 this season. That’s certainly not old, but he’s several months older than both CC Sabathia and  Josh Beckett. Wang’s arbitration years will take him to age 30, where as Cano’s contract is only guaranteed through his age-28 season. It seems to me that this is the primary reason why the Yankees are taking Wang year-by-year, but went ahead and bought out Cano’s arbitration years in bulk.

There’s another thing that strikes me about Wang’s new one-year deal. It seems unlikely that Wang’s value is going to be lower next year than it is now. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Yankees to try to negotiate a two-year deal and thereby preemptively suppress Wang’s 2010 salary based on his injury-shortened 2008 season? Perhaps having failed to get a multi-year deal out of the Yankees last year, Wang and his agents wouldn’t agree to such a thing. Still, I think the fact that the Yankees continue to go year-by-year with Wang supports a notion I had when the Yankees signed A.J. Burnett for five years:

The Yankees don’t intend to re-sign Chien-Ming Wang after he becomes a free agent.

Think about it. Sabathia is signed for at least three years and possibly seven. Burnett is signed for five years. Joba Chamberlain is well on his way to establishing himself in the rotation. That’s three spots in the 2011 rotation that are already spoken for. Wang will become a free agent following the 2010 season. If the Yankees can, over the next two years, develop just two more young arms (with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Zach McAllister being the top candidates), there’s no room for Wang in 2011, and no need to pay a free-agent salary to a player whose arbitration years the Yankees wouldn’t even buy out. Even if the Yankees only develop one more starter by 2011, that leaves just one empty spot in the 2011 rotation, and there’s a good chance that they will be able to find a better way to fill that last spot than to give a big-money, long-term deal to a 31-year-old Chien-Ming Wang.

Of course, when it comes to pitching anything can happen. It could be that none of the pitchers above is healthy or productive enough to claim a rotation spot in 2011. Projecting pitching even just three years into the future is a dangerous game, but the way everything looks right now, I think we’re only going to see Wang in pinstripes for two more years. Enjoy him while you can.