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The rain has held off all day. Though the skies remain gray and threatening, it seems they’ll get Game One of the ALCS in. I only hope it’s without interruption. Even still, it should be a miserable night to be out there as temperatures dipping into the 30s could get downright icy with some precipitation. In the comments the other day, Sliced Bread compared the weather to an air-conditioned car wash. CC Sabathia has spent his career pitching for teams in Cleveland and Milwaukee, but one wonders if the cold could be partially to blame for his perennially poor Aprils. Either way, here’s hoping he waxes the Angels tonight.

As a sort of pregame show, here’s the latest Bronx Banter Breakdown staring Alex, myself, and Ted Berg talking Yankees-Angels ALCS. My massive series preview is the post below this one. We can’t get any more ready. Play ball!

This is going to be epic. The ALCS should be pretty good, too.

When the decade began, the idea of a Yankees-Angels rivalry seemed laughable. The Yankees were on their way to their fourth world championship in five years and the Angels hadn’t made the postseason since 1986. Then came 2002. Having come two outs from a fifth title in 2001, the Yankees won the AL East for the fifth year in a row and were matched up against a surprising 99-win Wild Card team from Anaheim in the first round. The Yankees were the clear favorites, but after pulling out a come-from-behind win in Game One thanks to an eighth-inning homer by Bernie Williams, they were swept in the next three games by the relentless Angels, who went on to win the franchise’s first pennant and world championship.

A losing season in 2003 seemed to paint the Halos as a fluke, but they came storming back in 2004 and won their division. Since then, the Angels have won the AL West in five of the last six years, went 30-18 against the Yankees from 2004 to 2008, and beat the Yankees in the ALDS again in 2005 in a nerve-wracking series that saw the Yankees blow fifth-inning leads in Games Two and Three and lose Game Five in large part because of an outfield collision between Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby that allowed two runs to score.

It was also that series that, to many minds, sealed Alex Rodriguez’s reputation as a post-season choker. Rodriguez hit .133 in the series and, representing the tying run in the ninth inning of Game Five, followed a Derek Jeter leadoff single with a back-breaking double-play. The trick was that the Angels gave Rodriguez nothing to hit, walking him six times and hitting him twice. As with that double play, Alex got himself into trouble by expanding his zone and swinging at the junk he was being offered, but he still posted a .435 on-base percentage on the series. That devilish and effective strategy came from the mind of manager Mike Scioscia, who took over the Angels in 2000 and has presided over what has been by far the franchise’s most successful decade.

The Angels seemed to have the Yankees’ number again this year when they swept them in Anaheim just before the All-Star break to take a 4-2 lead in the season series, but the Yankees, as they did to the entire league, stormed back in the second half to even the series, thus avoiding losing the season set to the Halos for the first time since 2003.

Both teams swept their way to this year’s ALCS, though the Angels did it in more convincing fashion against a superior opponent, the Red Sox, while the Yankees needed a pair of comebacks to beat the lowly Twins. For the Angels, it is their first ALCS appearance since they beat the Yankees to get there in 2005. For the Yankees, it’s their first since they were victims of the Red Sox’s groundbreaking comeback from a 0-3 deficit in games in 2004. Though both teams are postseason staples, making five of the last six, neither has reached the World Series since the Yankees out-lasted the Red Sox in the epic 2003 ALCS.

The blood isn’t nearly as bad in this matchup, but the Yankees find themselves on an unfamiliar side of this one-sided rivalry. It’s the Bombers who always come up short in this pairing. Having finally escaped the perilous best-of-five format of the Division Series, this rivalry will literally reach the next level over the next week. Though the Yankees are clearly the better team by objective measure, I expect the series will be hard-fought and heart-stopping. My official prediction is Yankees in seven, and I expect nothing less.

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I an effort to help bridge the gap between the abbreviated Division Series and the LCS, I’ve had a trio of list-style pieces up on SI.com this week.

The first is a look at the heroes and goats of the four Division Series.

The second is a look at the players on advancing teams who struggled in the LDS and will need to step up their game in the second round.

The last is a photo gallery of the 15 most significant blunders in postseason history (not including blown calls or questionable managerial decisions), ranked and captioned by yours truly (start at 15 and click “back” to count down to number-one).

There’s plenty of Yankees (and Angels) material in each one, including this rather disturbing scene from the last playoff game between the two teams, which the Yankees will work to erase from their fans minds starting tomorrow night.

I don’t even know where to start. The Yankees beat the Twins 4-3 in 11 innings in Game Two of the ALDS on Friday night in the Bronx in what might have been the most exciting Yankee postseason win since the Aaron Boone game in 2003.

Starting pitchers A.J. Burnett and Nick Blackburn matched zeros for five innings. Blackburn allowed only a walk to Hideki Matsui before Robinson Cano, who along with Mark Teixeira was one of just two Yankee starters who went hitless in Game One, singled with two outs in the fifth. Burnett put runners on in every inning, but stranded them in the first five.

The first big play of the game came in the top of the fourth. After getting two quick outs, Burnett hit Delmon Young in the back and Carlos Gomez in the hand to put runners on first and second. Matt Tolbert then lined a clean single to shallow right center for what looked like the first RBI hit of the game, but Gomez took a wide turn around second then slipped. With Derek Jeter standing on second screaming for the ball, Nick Swisher fired to second to catch Gomez off the bag just moments before Young was able to cross home, ending the inning without a run scoring.

The Twins finally broke the scoreless tie in the top of the sixth after Young drew a one-out walk and stole second as Gomez struck out. Tolbert was due up, but had come down with a strained oblique, forcing Twins manager Ron Gardenhire to pinch-hit with Brendan Harris. Harris, who hit .238/.289/.340 against right-handers on the season, took to 3-1, then launched a bomb to the left-field gap. Johnny Damon did his jump-and-fall-down routine in a hopeless attempt to catch the ball, and the ball ricocheted off the wall and got past Melky Cabrera giving Harris an RBI triple. Burnett stranded Harris by getting Nick Punto to ground out on what proved to be his last pitch of the night. Then the Yankees answered back.

With Burnett out of the game, Joe Girardi sent Jorge Posada up to hit for Jose Molina. Posada flew out, but Derek Jeter crushed a ground-rule double to right center, and two batters later the new Alex Rodriguez delivered yet another two-out RBI single to tie the game.

Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke split a scoreless seventh. John Rauch answered with a 1-2-3 inning of his own. That passed the ball to Phil Hughes in the eighth. Taking his cue from Burnett, Hughes got two quick outs and had the crowd roaring “Huuuughes” with the count 1-2 on Gomez, but then issued three straight balls to put Gomez on base. That man Harris followed with a single that sent Gomez to third (and nearly to home). That brought up Nick Punto, the Twins gritty, gutty, scrappy, crappy ninth hitter. Punto took to 2-2, fouled off a pitch, then singled through the middle scoring Gomez with the go-ahead run.

Crap.

Joe Girardi then brought in Mariano Rivera who, as the TBS announcers reported, had allowed just 3 hits in 50 at-bats with men in scoring position in his postseason career. That became 4-for-51 as Denard Span singled Harris home to give the Twinks a 3-1 lead. Watching Rivera give up an insurance run, the Yankee Stadium crowd fell dead silent.

Twins set-up ace Matt Guerrier and Rivera exchanged scoreless innings, handing that 3-1 lead to Joe Nathan in the ninth. The first time these two teams met this season, the Yankees opened the series with a trio of walk-off wins at Yankee Stadium. In the first of those, Joe Nathan was handed a two-run lead in the ninth only to cough up both the lead and the game, one of just two losses Nathan suffered on the season.

Perhaps I had that game in the back of my mind, because looking at the Yankee batters due up–Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Hideki Matsui–I was convinced the Yankees would get a bloop from Teixeira and a blast from Rodriguez to tie the game.

Guess what?

Teixeira hit a 1-1 rope into right field for a lead-off single, and Alex Rodriguez, after taking to 3-1, crushed a fastball to the back wall of the Yankee bullpen in right for a game-tying home run.

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Game One of this ALDS couldn’t have gone much better for the Yankees. CC Sabathia was sharp, every starter but Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano got a hit, including Alex Rodriguez who had a pair of RBI singles, the key end-game relievers (Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, and the re-purposed Joba Chamberlain) got their postseason spikes dirty with a big lead and a day off to follow, and, most importantly, the Bombers extended their regular season dominance of Minnesota with a 7-2 victory. Yesterday, however, gave the exhausted Twins, who in the 25 hours before the first pitch of Game One had played 12 innings to save their season then flown half way across the country, a much-needed day of rest, and Game Two brings another Yankee starting pitcher with a lot to prove.

I was an outspoken opponent of the five-year, $82.5 million contract the Yankees signed A.J. Burnett to in December. With one of those five regular seasons in the books, Burnett has exceeded my expectations in just one way: he stayed healthy and took every one of his turns throughout the season. That’s no small thing, but the net result of Burnett’s 33 starts wasn’t quite what you’d expect from a $16.5 million pitcher, and there are still four more years in which Burnett could well validate my concerns about his injury history.

The contract doesn’t matter tonight. All that matters is how well Burnett pitches in his first postseason start, which is why Joe Girardi has opted to start Jose Molina behind the plate despite the huge drop in production he represents at the plate compared to Jorge Posada. Opposing batters have hit just .221/.307/.352 against Burnett with Molina behind the plate compared to .270/.353/.421 with Posada receiving him. Supposedly the difference is due in part to Burnett’s lack of confidence in Posada’s ability to block his sharp curve in the dirt, which results in Burnett failing to break the pitch off properly when throwing to Posada. Burnett led the league in wild pitches, and one would assumes a certain percentage of those were pitches Burnett thought Posada should have blocked.

Burnett’s breaking point seemed to come in his August 12 start, when, with Posada catching, he uncorked three wild pitches then refused to talk about the issue after the game, saying bruskly, “I’d rather not talk about the wild pitches.” Up to that game, Posada caught 13 of Burnett’s starts while Molina, Francisco Cervelli, and Kevin Cash caught the other ten, five of them coming when Posada was on the disabled list. After that August 12 start, Posada caught just three more of Burnett’s starts, while Molina caught seven. Burnett didn’t thrown another wild pitch after August 12, but two of the three times he pitched to Posada he was rocked, giving up nine runs in five innings to the Red Sox on August 22, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to the lowly Orioles on September 1. Those were the last two Burnett starts caught by Posada.

That’s why Joe Girardi is sitting a .285/.363/.522 hitter in a playoff game in favor of a man who has hit .217/.273/.298 in 406 at-bats over the last two seasons. I believe Posada himself said it best when he said, in reaction to the news that Molina would be starting, “I just hope we win that game.” Burnett’s need for Molina behind the plate only adds to the pressure he’ll be feeling tonight in his first career postseason start (he was out following Tommy John surgery when his Marlins beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series). The contract may not matter tonight, but Burnett will by trying to live up to it.

As for how he did in the regular season, Burnett’s aggregate line was actually no better than the no-name Twins sophomore he’ll face tonight:

A.J. Burnett: 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 33 GS, 21 QS
Nick Blackburn: 4.03 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB, 33 GS, 19 QS

Those lines are damn similar, with Blackburn holding the edge in the three key rate stats, which just goes to show how overrated Burnett really is. As for the 27-year-old Blackburn, his final 2009 line is almost an exact match for his 2008 rookie campaign, which means the Twins can now expect this sort of production from him. Blackburn’s WHIP is high because he led the league in hits allowed. Burnett’s is high because he led the league in walks with a career-high 97. That is also why A.J.’s K/BB is so low (because of all those walks, Burnett’s WHIP and K/BB this year were his worst since 2003, when he made just four starts).

Of course, Burnett and Blackburn are far from similar pitchers, as their strikeout and walk rates reveal:

Burnett: 8.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
Blackburn: 4.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

Better all those walks and strikeouts than all those hits, but you’d rather see a pitcher keep his opponents off the bases altogether.

Both pitchers finished the regular seaosn strong. In his last four starts (all with Molina catching), Burnett posted a 1.88 ERA, struck out 28 men in 24 innings, and allowed just one home run. In his last four starts, Blackburn posted a 1.65 ERA and walked just one man in 27 1/3 innings.

Blackburn last faced the Yankees on May 16. He took a 4-3 lead into the eighth inning of that game only to let the Yankees tie it up in that inning (and ultimately win it in extras). Burnett faced the Twins twice this year, both times allowing just two runs in six-plus innings, but walking ten in those 13 frames.

The Twins have made one tweak to their lineup tonight. Jason Kubel is DHing, Denard Span is in right, and Carlos Gomez is in centerfield and batting in place of the team’s no-name DH platoon. Alex suggests this is because the Twins want to run on Burnett, but while A.J. allowed 23 steals on the year, he and his catchers caught 34 percent of attempting basestealers, that compared to a 25 percent league average and Jose Molina and Jorge Posada’s matching (yes, matching) 28 percent throw-out rates.

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The Yankees had to love watching the Tigers and Twins bloody one another over the course of 13 innings last night knowing that the exhausted victor would have to catch a red-eye to New York to face CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the ALDS this evening. That victor proved to be the Twins, who won on a walk-off single by Alexi Casilla that plated Carlos Gomez in the bottom of the 13th after burning through eight pitchers. That victory was the Twins’ fifth-straight and the 17th in their last 21 games, but it’s worth noting that only one of those wins (the first) came against a team outside their division (the A’s), and that win raised their record at the time to 71-72. The Twins’ comeback was remarkable and capped off by a true classic of a 163rd game, but the Twins are not a good ballclub, they’re just better than the other stiffs and mediocrities that make up the American League Central.

Consider, for example, that the two players who combined for the division winning run hit .229/.287/.337 (Gomez) and .202/.280/.259 (Casilla) on the season. That’s not entirely fair as both have been relegated to the bench and Joe Girardi has announced his intention to start Jose Molina (.217/.292/.268) behind the plate in Game 2 of the ALDS, but I found it striking that the Twins were relying on hitters of such pronounced ineptitude in such a significant situation.

The flip side of Gomez and Casilla is, of course, Joe Mauer, who won the slash-stat triple crown this year and should be the unanimous choice for MVP after hitting .365/.444/.587 as a fine defensive catcher. Right now, Mauer is the best player on either team, but he represents the sole advantage the Twins hold over the Yankees, as the following position-by-position comparison shows. (Note that when dealing with the starting nine, I prefer to do my position-by-position comparisons by batting order position rather than defensive position, as I think it presents a fairer apples-to-apples look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two offenses in question.)

Leadoff:

Derek Jeter (.334/.406/.465, 30 SB @ 86%)
Denard Span (.311/.392/.415, 23 SB @ 70%)

This is closer than you might think. Span’s sophomore season looks a lot like the final three months of his rookie campaign (.297/.393/.449) minus some power (though he did lead the league in triples), but it was no match for the Captain in one of his finest campaigns.

2nd:

Johnny Damon (.282/.365/.489, 12 SB @ 100%)
Orlando Cabrera (.284/.316/.389, 13 SB @ 76%)

Cover up the batting averages and this one isn’t close. Damon has 100 pints of slugging over Cabrera, nearly 50 points in on-base percentage and wasn’t thrown out stealing all year. It’s worth noting Damon’s splits, however, as 17 of his career-best-tying 24 homers came at the new Yankee Stadium and his resulting .533 slugging seems to have contributed to a spike in his walk rate in the Bronx (one every 7.4 plate appearances vs. one every 11 PA on the road). Still, even the road Damon is clearly superior to Cabrera at the plate, posting a .284/.349/.446 line.

3rd:

Mark Teixeira (.292/.383/.565)
Joe Mauer (.365/.444/.587)

This was a hot topic a month ago, but what was obvious to many of us then seems to have finally become obvious to all now. Teixeira’s first season in pinstripes was excellent–he led the league in homers (tied with Carlos Peña at 39), RBIs (122), and total bases (344)–but Mauer’s season was historic. The only catcher since the 1880s to have a season rivaling Mauer’s was Mike Piazza in 1997 (.362/.431/.638), and Mauer was by far the best of hitter in the American League in 2009 at any position.

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The Rays beat the Yankees 13-4 on Friday night in a game that was every bit as ugly as that score would suggest. CC Sabathia, making his first career start with a chance to reach 20 wins, gave up nine runs (five earned) and was pulled with two outs in the third having thrown 82 pitches. Six Yankee relievers followed, with Jonathan Albaladejo giving up two more runs, and David Robertson and Phil Hughes one each (I’m guessing Hughes has already shaved his new mustache). B.J. Upton hit for the first cycle in Rays history in the first five innings, following a key, bases-loaded first-inning triple with a double in the third, a homer in the fourth, and an RBI single in the fifth. He later added another single in the eighth and finished the game having gone 5-for-5 with 11 total bases, 6 RBIs, and 3 runs scored.

The silver lining for the Yankees was an opportunity to get a look at a large swath of their roster, with 16 position players and 8 pitchers appearing in the game. Juan Miranda crushed a pitch off Dale Thayer for his first major league home run which also happened to tie the Yankees’ single-season team mark for home runs at 242, a mark set by the 2004 Bombers. Brian Bruney worked a perfect sixth inning, and Damaso Marte retired the only two men he faced on a total of four pitches in the eighth.

The turning point in the game came in the bottom of the first. Jason Bartlett led off with a solid single up the middle, then stole second on the first pitch to Carl Crawford. Crawford then hit a grounder to Mark Teixeira’s right. Perhaps still a bit rattled from taking a David Price fastball up and in off his left hand in the top of the inning as likely retribution for Sabathia breaking co-AL home run leader Carlos Peña’s fingers with a pitch the last time these two teams met, Tex bobbled the ball. The bobble was of little consequence as Teixeira recovered in time to flip the ball to Sabathia, but Crawford beat the big lefty to the bag, forcing Tex to eat the ball. Nonetheless, Tex was given an error on the play. With men on first and third and none out, Sabathia walked Evan Longoria on five pitches setting up a bases-loaded no-out jam

Then CC bore down. He jammed Ben Zobrist inside, broke his bat, and got him to hit a humpback liner to Robinson Cano. Teixeira then made a nice play, bending over backwards near the stands to snag a Willy Aybar foul pop and firing home to keep the runners in place. With two out and the game still scoreless, Sabathia fell behind Gabe Kapler 3-0, then got two generous strike calls to battle back to 3-2 before finally walking in the first run of the game. B.J. Upton then hit the first pitch he saw just over the reach of Cano (it seemed as if Cano could have had the ball, but it knuckled, causing Robby to miss). The ball scooted toward the right-field gap, eluding a diving Nick Swisher, who seemed to get caught up in the Tropicana Dome turf, and rolling to the warning track for a bases-clearing triple. That made it 4-0 Rays and set the course for Sabathia, Upton, and the game in general.

After the game, both Sabathia and Girardi blamed CC’s bad outing on a lack of fastball command. Sabathia also said his changeup “wasn’t really there,” but that “I’ll be ready for Wednesday,” referring to his Game 1 start in the ALDS.

Though the games are meaningless, it seems appropriate that the Yankees are finishing the 2009 season against the Rays. Tampa Bay was supposed to be in the thick of the AL East race and are the defending American League Champions. The Yankees, having replaced the Rays atop the division, hope to succeed them as pennant winners as well.

The Rays mediocre finish, nearly 20 games behind the Yankees in third place, feels like a disappointment, but it’s important to remember that this is a franchise that had won as many as 70 games just once prior to 2008. This has been the second-best season in Rays history by a dozen games. Entering the final series of the season, they Rays are just one game behind the Twins, who remain alive in the AL Central race.

The 2009 Rays suffered through brutal seasons from Dioner Navarro (.219/.259/.317), B.J. Upton (.238/.308/.362), and Pat Burrell (.226/.321/.376), and got just 67 games from second baseman Akinori Iwamura due to a knee injury, but benefited from what were likely flukey late-20s spikes from Ben Zobrist (.290/.399/.531) and Jason Bartlett (.319/.385/.492).

Carl Crawford bounced back from his disappointing 2008 campaign, but remains a good player rather than a great one. Nonetheless, the trade that sent Scott Kazmir and the $20 million left on his contract over the next two years to Anaheim suggests that the Rays will pick up Crawford’s $10-million option for 2010.

Kazmir was made expendable by the strong performance of 26-year-old rookie Jeff Niemann, a thick, 6-foot-9 righty, as well as the late-season arrival of 23-year-old righty Wade Davis, who has been dominant in three of his five September starts (though two of those came against the lowly Orioles) and good in the fourth. Niemann and Davis will start the final two games of the season against Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett.

Fellow rookie David Price will start tonight against fellow lefty CC Sabathia. Price was supposed to be the rookie sensation in the Rays’ rotation, but after spending April and most of May in the minors to suppress his innings total, he struggled with his control and the longball upon returning the majors. In his first 11 starts, he gave up 11 homers and walked 33 in 53 innings, which translates to 1.87 HR/9 and 5.6 BB/9.  As a result, he was averaging less than five innings per start and sported a 5.60 ERA.

In his 11 starts since then, however, Price has allowed just six more homers and walked just 19 in 68 1/3 innings (0.8 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, almost 6 1/3 innings per start). The result has been a solid 3.82 ERA and a 6-3 record over that span. That’s the kind of progress the Yankees had hoped to see from Joba Chamberlain this year.

The rotation of Matt Garza, James Shields, Price, Niemann, and Davis is the primary reason the Rays will remain contenders in 2010, and the Yankees will get a preview of that in this final series. That seems like a good thing to me. Though Joe Girardi will continue to rotate days off through his lineup, facing good young pitchers will keep the Yankee hitters from falling into any bad habits in the process of playing out the string. Similarly, playoff starters Sabathia, Pettitte, and Burnett will be facing a solid lineup (fourth best in the AL on the year), rather than the glorified Triple-A squad run out by the Royals.

Meanwhile, the pesky Twins are forcing the Tigers to sweat out their Central Division title, and could force them to start Justin Verlander on Sunday, thus bumping him from what would otherwise be his Game 1 start in the ALDS. I’ll, of course, have an in-depth preview of that series next week. In the meantime here are some individual stats that are within reach for the Yankees this weekend:

CC Sabathia: a win tonight would be his 20th, a new career high. Six strikeouts would get him to 200.

A.J. Burnett: needs 8 Ks for 200.

Mark Teixeira: needs 1 homer for 40

Nick Swisher: needs 1 homer for 30

Derek Jeter: needs 2 homers for 20

Robinson Cano: needs 2 doubles for 50

Alex Rodriguez: needs 7 RBIs for 100 and two homers to tie Mark McGwire for 8th place all-time.

Derek Jeter: needs 4 RBIs for 70 (Jeter has reached 70 RBIs in all but two of his full seasons and missed by one last year. Leading off has cost him RBI opportunities this year in what has been one the best seasons of his career.) The Captain also needs four hits to tie Hall-0f-Fame shortstop Luke Appling for 48th all-time.

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui rest today as Jerry Hairston plays left (and tests his wrist) and Jose Molina DHs. That gives Molina some at-bats before the postseason and allows Sabathia to work with Posada. Swisher bats fifth. Melky starts in center against the lefty Price.

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Before Robinson Cano’s seventh-inning grand slam blew it open, Monday’ night’s 8-2 Yankee win over the Royals was a nice little ballgame. Chad Gaudin walked Mitch Maier to start the game, then retired eight straight before Maier came back around and pulled a ball just inside the right-field line the first Royals hit of the game. The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the bottom of the fourth on a double by Cano and singles by Jorge Posada and Eric Hinske, who made his first start at third base as a Yankee amid a bench-heavy, post-clincher lineup that included Ramiro Peña at shorstop, Juan Miranda at first base, Francisco Cervelli behind the plate (Posada was the DH), and Shelley Duncan in right field.

Mark Teahen got the Royals on the board by leading off the fifth with a game-tying opposite-field solo shot of Gaudin. Cervelli led off the fifth with a single, but was thrown out at second when Ramiro Peña failed to hold up his end of a hit-and-run (he got the sign, but missed the pitch). Peña then went from goat to hero on the next pitch, which he got under and lifted to the front row in right field for a Yankee Stadium homer, the first tater of Peña’s young career.

In a game that otherwise meant very little, the Yankee dugout’s reaction to Peña’s homer was the highlight. As soon as the bench began to celebrate, Alex Rodriguez jumped into action to organize the popular silent treatment often given to rookies following their first career homer (you might remember the Phillies giving it to John Mayberry Jr. at the stadium earlier this year). Alex grabbed the celebrating Jeter by his hoodie and dragged him back to his perch behind the dugout screen, then waived the others back to their seats. Jeter and company instantly complied, sporting devilish grins as they took their places.

When Peña got to home plate, he received a dispassionate fist-bump from on-deck hitter Brett Gardner and from Melky Cabrera in the on-deck circle, but was ignored by his teammates as he entered the dugout. Joe Girardi couldn’t resist giving the rookie a high-five, but the others sat stone-faced as Peña put away his helmet and gloves. Then Jorge Posada clapped as if to cheer on Gardner, which was the signal for the team to swarm Peña. It was a great moment, captured beautifully by the YES cameras. I’m among those who believes that winning begets team chemistry, not the other way around, but it’s hard not to be impressed and enthused by the cohesiveness and amicability of this Yankee team. There seems to be genuine affection and good humor in that clubhouse, moreso even than on the business-like teams of the late-90s dynasty.

Peña’s homer gave the Yankees a brief 2-1 lead. The Royals answered back in the top of the sixth, tying the game on a Yuniesky Betancourt single, Billy Butler’s 51st double of the year, and a Mike Jacobs sac fly. The Yanks then returned serve again in the bottom of the sixth on a Posada double ultimately plated by a Shelly Duncan single. A Cervelli double in the seventh plated by a Peña single and Cano’s slam, all off Royals starter Luke Hochevar, put the game away in the seventh.

Gaudin turned in the best and deepest start of his Yankee career (6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K) and now feels like a lock for the postseason roster. Damaso Marte, who retired Alex Gordon to finish the seventh for Gaudin, helped his cause as well, as did Freddy Guzman, who pinch-ran for Duncan in the sixth and stole second on the first pitch to Miranda. Cervelli and Peña combined to go 4-for-8, each with a single and an extra-base hit. Peña drove in two. Shelley Duncan drove in another after striking out and grounding into a double play and held Maier to a single on his hit down the line in the third with a strong throw to second. Hinske had an RBI single, but didn’t get a chance to field a grounder at third base (just three pop ups). All surely benefited from facing the lowly Royals, but given that these final six games are like a brief spring-training period for the postseason, it’s nice to see the borderline players making their cases. Speaking of which, David Robertson could return to action Tuesday night, and Jerry Hairston Jr. will take batting practice as both try to prove they’re healthy enough to make the ALDS roster.

Meanwhile, potential ALDS opponents the Twins and Tigers were rained out in Detroit, resulting in a Tuesday day/night double-header which could knot the division if the Twins pull off an unlikely sweep against Morristown, NJ’s Rick Porcello and Detroit ace Justin Verlander. Down in Atlanta, former Tiger Jair Jurrjens pitched the Braves to their seventh-straight win, bringing them within two games of the idle Rockies in the still-interesting NL Wild Card race.

The Yankees have already accomplished all of their goals for the 2009 regular season. By sweeping the Red Sox over the weekend, they clinched both the AL East title and the best record in the American League, the latter of which gives them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their clinching win was also their 100th of the season; Joe Torre’s Dodgers rank second in the majors with 93 wins.

Even before Sunday’s clincher, the Yankees had shifted their attention from a singular focus on winning each game they played to longer-range considerations regarding postseason readiness. One could even argue that their focus began to shift when they began skipping Joba Chamberlain’s starts in August.

This week’s final regular season home series against the last-place Royals is thus a curiosity at best for those interested in the Yankees’ post-season roster construction and two teams’ marginal bench players and relievers (the Yankees’ lineup tonight omits Jeter, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Swisher, and Matsui in favor of Ramiro Peña, Juan Miranda, Eric Hinske at the hot corner, and Francisco Cervelli). At worst it’s a complete and utter waste of time that serves no purpose other than to expose the Yankees to a potentially disastrous injury.

Due to some curious scheduling, the Yankees last faced the Royals in the second series of the season way back on April 10-12 (Yankees took 2 of 3 in K.C.), and now face them for the second and final time this season in the season’s penultimate series. In between the Yankees have emerged as the major league’s best team while the Royals primary accomplishment has been avoiding being the worst.

The Royals had made steady improvements under new general manager Dayton Moore over the last three seasons, but 2009 has seen them stagnate then regress. Zack Greinke and Billy Butler have had long-awaited break-out seasons at ages 25 and 23, respectively, Greinke being the obvious choice for AL Cy Young and Butler ranking among the league leaders in extra-base hits, but that is the sum total of the positives. In my Royals preview in April I listed the team’s assets as:

. . . two front-of-the-rotation starters in 25-year-old Zack Greinke and Gil Meche, 30; one of the best closers in baseball in Joakim Soria, who will turn 25 next month; two top hitting prospects who are already in the major league lineup in 25-year-old third baseman Alex Gordon and soon-to-be-23-year-old DH Billy Butler; and two of the game’s top minor league prospects in first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas, ranked numbers 18 and 21, respectively, by Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein.

Beyond Greinke and Butler, Meche had a brutal season (6-10, 5.09 ERA, and all of his peripherals heading in the wrong direction) and was shut down after 23 starts with shoulder inflammation, Gordon hit the DL in mid-April with a torn hip labrum, missed three months, and was so bad after returning that the team demoted him just two weeks before rosters expanded (since returning he’s slugged just .392). Moustakas hit .250/.297/.431 in High-A ball. Hosmer hit .241/.334/.361 in a season split between A-ball and High-A. Soria, a closer on a team that never wins, had a typically strong season save for the month he spent on the DL with a rotator cuff injury. The light at the end of the Royals’ tunnel is dimming.

The Yankees missed Greinke in April and will miss him again this week, instead catching Luke Hochevar, former Brave Anthony Lerew, and former Ranger Robinson Tejada. Shying away from the likely contract demands of the superior players available, the Royals made Hochevar the top overall pick in the 2006 draft. At age 25, has a 5.75 ERA in 46 major league starts, though he did turn in a quality start against the Yankees last June. Hochevar also made his major league debut against the Yankees in September 2007.

Hochevar will face Chad Gaudin, who could sew up his spot as the long-man on the Yankees’ postseason roster with a good outing tonight against a terrible offense (4.24 R/G, second-worst in the AL).

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The Yankees dropped their magic number for clinching the AL East to three Friday night by beating the Red Sox soundly 9-5. Alex Rodriguez had a big night, going 3-for-3 with a two-run homer, four RBIs, and three stolen bases, but the story of the game was the respective highs and lows experienced by the opposing starting pitchers.

Jon Lester gave up a single to Derek Jeter on his first pitch of the game, and though he ultimately allowed only Jeter to score (following a stolen base on an Alex Rodriguez single), he needed 30 pitches to get through the inning. After stranding two runners in the second, including his second walk in as many innings, Lester got into big trouble in the third.

Mark Teixeira led off the third by concluding an eight-pitch at-bat with a single to left. Rodriguez then crushed an inside pitch into the second deck in left field (just the second time a fair ball has reached that level, both of them hit by Rodriguez). The Yankees then loaded the bases on a single by Hideki Matsui, a Robinson Cano double, and Lester’s third walk. With the bags juiced and one out, Melky Cabrera lined a 1-0 pitch off the inside of Lester’s right knee, plating Matsui and knocking Lester out of the game with what ultimately proved to be just a bad bruise. Hunter Jones replaced the injured Lester and allowed Cano to score before ending the inning with the Red Sox trailing 5-0.

Meanwhile, Joba Chamberlain, who suffered what seemed like a significant performance setback against the punchless Mariners in his last start, retired the first 11 men he faced before Victor Martinez deposited a high fastball in the Yankee bullpen in the top of the fourth. That solo homer came on what was just the 44th pitch of the night from Chamberlain. After stranding a subsequent single by Kevin Youkilis, Joba got into immediate trouble in the top of the fifth when a leadoff single by Jason Bay and a J.D. Drew double put men on second and third with no outs.

It took Joba just seven pitches to work out of that jam. Jason Varitek popped out on the first pitch he saw. Alex Gonzalez struck out on four, and Jacoby Ellsbury grounded to Mark Teixeira on a 1-0 count. Teixeira took Ellsbury’s ball to the bag himself, but Joba was running over to cover just in case and simply turned right and ran right into the dugout as Tex made the play.

A walk to Dustin Pedroia to start the sixth and a two-out two-run homer to lefty by David Ortiz soured his final inning, but overall the night was a huge success for Chamberlain, who had been showing progress in his two starts prior to his disappointing outing in Seattle. Though his recent innings limits were partially to blame, the game marked the first time Chamberlain had completed six innings since August 11, his first win since August 6, and his first quality start since he dominated the Rays on July 29.

Joba will make one more regular season start, on Wednesday against the Royals. The Royals aren’t much to contend with, but neither were the Mariners. Joba had a 90-pitch limit Friday night and used just 86 of them in six frames. He has thrown 152 2/3 innings on the season, but should be allowed to pitch without limits against the Royals in preparation for potential playoff work. His performance in that game could determine a lot, including which ALDS schedule the Yankees choose. If he’s similarly effective, the Yankees might prefer to let Joba start an ALDS game in order to keep him in the groove.

Meanwhile, the Yankees stole seven bases against Jason Varitek in this game, providing a preview of how they might play against the Sox in a potential ALCS matchup. Varitek has thrown out just 15 men all year, a mere 14 percent of attempting basestealers. Victor Martinez has been equally inept at catching thieves, throwing out just nine men for an identical 14 percent caught-stealing rate. The Yankees, meanwhile, have four starters in double digits in steals (Jeter, Rodriguez, Damon, and their center fielder, be it Cabrera or Gardner), and Robinson Cano contributed with a steal of second Friday night. Mix in a postseason roster that could include Freddy Guzman and the Yankees could give the Red Sox fits on the bases, turning singles and walks into doubles with regularity, rendering irrelevant Joe Girardi and Derek Jeter’s irritating fondness for the bunt. Keep an eye on those Yankee baserunners over the final two games of this series.

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The Yankees went 2-12 against the Angels and Red Sox in the first half of this season. Since then, they’ve gone 9-2 against those same two teams. Tonight, they return home from Anaheim having taken two of three from the Halos despite spending most of that series auditioning borderline candidates for the postseason roster, which they’ll do again tonight with Joba Chamberlain making the start. So much for the absurd meme that the Yankees couldn’t beat the “big boys.”

The Yankees clinched a playoff berth in Anaheim and enter this weekend’s series against the Red Sox leading Boston by five-games in the loss column with just just nine games left on the schedule. That puts their magic number at 5 and sets the Yanks up to clinch the division with a weekend sweep. Not that I expect that to happen. Still, just one win in this series would reduce the magic number to 3 and a series win would drop it to 1. Meanwhile, even if the Red Sox sweep the series, the Yankees could clinch by simply splitting their remaining games if the Sox lose just twice in their remaining seven games against the admittedly weak Blue Jays and Indians.

So, once again, the Yankees’ goals in this series are to keep everyone healthy and sort out the final few spots on the postseason roster. Speaking of which, the Red Sox’s current roster is at the end of this post, but below the jump I’ll take a stab at projecting their likely postseason roster.

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The Yankees are clearly using their final 20 games to figure out who will make their 25-man roster for the ALDS. That’s why minor league journeyman speedster Freddy Guzman is on the major league roster and why relievers such as Brian Bruney are getting game opportunities that otherwise seem unearned given their overall performance.

There are still some questions that need to be answered, chief among them whether or not David Robertson will be available and effective by season’s end, but prompted by Joe Girardi’s use of Bruney and Jonathan Alabaladejo last night and Brian Cashman’s comments about Joba Chamberlain (coming up), I thought I’d weigh in on the subject.

First, here are Cashman’s comments on Joba via Pete Caldera’s blog:

He needs to declare himself. He’s no different than anyone else. Everybody loves his tenacity,but we’re going to take the best 10 guys. There’s no assumptions there. He’s put himself in a position where the manager has to make a decision that there’s not one guy ahead of him that he needs to give the ball to. He might not realize it, but he’s in competition with any number of guys to take the ball.

Also relevant to Joba’s situation is the fact that the Yankees, assuming they finish with the best record in the league, will be able to chose which of the two ALDS schedules they’ll play. One would require a normal four starters, but the other includes and extra off-day and would allow them to use just three starters in the first round. Given how Chamberlain has pitched of late, I’m guessing they’ll go with the three-starter scenario.

While I would understand the team trying to send a message to Joba by leaving him off the ALDS roster (while simultaneously allowing him to pitch simulated games to stay ready for the ALCS), I’d be surprised to see them pass up the chance to use him out of the bullpen in the ALDS.

Cashman’s quote indicates that the Yankees will bring just ten pitchers to the ALDS, which should result in something like this:

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
L – Andy Pettitte
R – A.J. Burnett

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Phil Hughes
L – Phil Coke
R – Alfredo Aceves
R – Joba Chamberlain
L – Damaso Marte
R – Chad Gaudin

Marte has allowed a run in just one of his eight appearances since returning from the DL. In those eight appearances, he hasn’t allowed any of his ten inherited runners to score, hasn’t allowed a home run, and has struck out six in 5 1/3 innings against two walks. Gaudin, whose start tonight could significantly reinforce or undermine his chances for making the postseason roster, has a 3.68 ERA as a Yankee and can be an effective long-man in case of an early exit by a starter, a deep extra-inning game, or can eat innings in a blowout.

Note that David Robertson is currently rehabbing a sore elbow and was last seen playing catch at 60 feet. If he’s able to return effectively during before the season ends, he could bounce Marte, Gaudin, or even Chamberlain from the roster.

So, if the Yankees are only taking ten pitchers, who are their 15 position players? First the starting nine:

1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
C – Jorge Posada
RF – Nick Swisher
CF – Melky Cabrera
LF – Johnny Damon
DH – Hideki Matsui

Then the top bench guys:

CF – Brett Gardner
OF – Eric Hinske
UT – Jerry Hairston Jr.
C – Jose Molina

That leaves two spots, which is where you might find a third catcher (Francisco Cervelli) a bonus speed-and-defense player (Freddy Guzman), or an extra infielder (Ramiro Peña). Given the lack of opportunities given to Shelly Duncan since his recall, I don’t think he’s being considered as a right-handed pinch-hitting option. By that same token, Guzman has only appeared in two games thus far, suggesting that he’s not being seriously considered either. It could be that one of those spots goes to a healthy Robertson, giving the Yankees 11 pitchers and an eight-man bullpen in the ALDS.

There are 11 games left on the Yankees’ regular season schedule, including tonight’s. That’s enough time for those last two bench players to make themselves known or for certain relievers to pitch themselves on or off the roster. Alabaladejo and Bruney did themselves no favors last night. We’ll see if Gaudin can do better tonight.

The Yankees lost 5-2 to the Angels Monday night as Joe Saunders pitched a gem. Saunders allowed solo homers to Alex Rodriguez and pinch-hitter Hideki Matsui (Godzilla’s first career pinch-hit tater) in the seventh and eighth innings, respectively, but otherwise allowed just five hits, no runs, and walked no one. Meanwhile, the Rangers crushed the A’s 10-3 to postpone the Yankees’ postseason clinch at least one more day.

None of that was particularly important, however. The most significant thing that happened for the Yankees on Monday night was that Andy Pettitte turned in a quality start, recovering from a rocky, two-run first inning to retired the Angels in order in the second, third, and fourth before giving up a third run in the fifth on a walk and a pair of singles. Pettitte then retired Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Juan Rivera in order in the sixth, finishing his day at 91 pitches with just five hits allowed in six innings.

Pettitte had skipped his last turn due to some shoulder discomfort in his previous start, but after shaking off some rust in the first, he looked sharp, and more importantly, said he felt good after the game. In fact, Pettitte said his shoulder hasn’t hurt since that previous start ten days earlier. That’s a tremendous relief given Joba Chamberlain’s disaster start on Sunday and A.J. Burnett’s inconsistency. The Yankees’ biggest concern entering the postseason is the effectiveness of their starting rotation. Having Pettitte healthy and effective is of utmost importance.

Trailing 3-0, Joe Girardi used the remainder of the game to audition relievers for the postseason roster, giving the seventh to Brian Bruney and the eighth to Jonathan Albaldejo. Neither made much of a case for himself. Bruney gave up two hits including a booming home run to pinch-hitter Kendry Morales (Bruney said after the game that he was trying to be too fine with the pitch). Albaladejo gave up a run on a Vlad Guerrero single and a double to the wall by Juan Rivera.

The Yankees arrive in Anaheim needing just one win (or a Rangers loss) to clinch their first postseason berth under manager Joe Girardi. That’s a big deal, but it’s also an inevitability. Yankee fans tuning in this week to see a preview of a potential playoff matchup might be disappointed to see their team playing out the string, but that’s what the Yankees are and should be doing right now.

That clinching win will come. In the meantime, the Yankees have to make sure that, when they get to the postseason, their important players are healthy and rested. Getting A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain straightened out are priorities that met with differing results in Seattle. Tonight Andy Pettitte, whose last start was skipped due to some soreness in his pitching shoulder, takes the ball. Getting him and David Robertson healthy and effective again are also priorities.

Brett Gardner seems to have gotten his swing back, but he’ll sit tonight against the left-handed Joe Saunders. The Yankees will get a look at possible Joba-replacement Chad Guadin tomorrow and Burnett again on Wednesday against newest Angel Scott Kazmir. Somewhere along they way, they’ll clinch a playoff berth.

The Angels’ roster is the same as it was last time these teams met. The Yankees are 3-1 against the Angels in the Bronx this year, but 0-3 in Anaheim, but whether or not that latter mark is corrected or reinforced this week will have little bearing on how the Yanks are likely to perform in Disneyland in October.

Skip to the bottom of the ninth. A.J. Burnett out-dueled Felix Hernandez for seven innings, passing a 2-1 lead to Phil Hughes, who mowed down the M’s in the eighth to hand that lead to Mariano Rivera in the ninth. Rivera had converted a career high 36 straight saves, the longest active streak in the majors and started the ninth by striking out Jack Hannahan and pinch-hitter Mike Carp.

Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu sends up veteran Mike Sweeney to bat for shortstop Josh Wilson. Rivera’s first pitch is at the knee, but over the plate, and the right-handed Sweeney crushes it into the opposite field gap. A home run in almost any other park, Sweeney’s blast hits the warning track just in front of the 385-foot sign in right-center, putting Sweeny, the potential tying run on second with one out and bringing Ichiro Suzuki to the plate as the potential winning run.

Suzuki was 3-for-4 on the night, but had been picked off first base twice by A.J. Burnett who both times caught the Seattle speedster leaning. The first pick-off came with none out in the third and was followed by a Franklin Gutierrez double that was subsequently plated by a Jose Lopez single for the only Mariner run of the game.

Now given a chance to make amends for those base-running blunders, Suzuki, like Sweeney, lights into Rivera’s first pitch, a cutter in off the plate but just below the belt. With his trademark bailing swing, Ichiro gets the sweet spot on the ball and deposits it four rows deep in the right field seats for a game-winning home run. The home run is just the fifth walk-off home run hit off Rivera in his career, and the first since Marco Scutaro’s shocker in Oakland in 2007. M’s win 3-2.

The Yankees scored their two runs on sac flies, both times with Johnny Damon doubles playing a key part in the inning, but failed to get Nick Swisher, who had doubled and moved up on a wild pitch, home from third with one out in the seventh when Jose Molina hit into a double-play. Other than that, there’s not much to reflect on here. Both starters and Hughes were excellent and Rivera had a lead with two-outs in the ninth. After the game, Rivera said he simply missed his location on both pitches. At least the Rangers lost, giving the Yankees a chance to clinch a playoff berth with CC Sabathia on the mound on Saturday with a win and another Rangers loss.

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The Yankees’ magic number for clinching a playoff berth is three. That means they could do it this weekend in Seattle, though it might require a little help from, ironically, the Angels, who are in Arlington facing the Rangers, the team whose inability to catch the Yankees would thus guarantee New York a return to the postseason. The most likely scenario would have the Yankees and Angels both taking two of three from their lesser opponents, putting the Yankees in the odd position of arriving in Anaheim on Monday with warm feelings about the Halos.

Looking at the pitching matchups in Seattle, the Yankees would seem to have the middle game, which pits CC Sabathia against the unfortunately named Doug Fister, in hand. Joba Chamberlain seems to finally be rounding back into shape after posting this combined line in his last two Rules-shortened starts: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. That gives the Yankees more than a good chance against reclamation project Ian Snell on Sunday. One has to assume the Angels will at the very least avoid a sweep in Arlington. That’s three games. Of course, if the Yankees want to do it in style, they’ll start with an surprisingly unlikely win tonight.

A.J. Burnett has exceeded my expectations this year in exactly one way: he has made every single one of his starts. Tonight he’ll make his 30th start for just the third time in his 11-year career. That is worthy of a certain level of praise (Carl Pavano made four fewer major league starts in his four years as a Yankee combined), but the quality of those starts of late has been anything but praiseworthy. Just two of Burnett’s last five starts have been quality starts and over his last nine he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA. Worse yet, he’s trending in the wrong direction. Four of his six starts in August were quality, but only one of his three in September has been and in those last five he’s posted a 7.67 ERA in part due to the eight home runs he has allowed in those outings.

Burnett hasn’t seen the Mariners yet this year, but shouldn’t find them much of a challenge given that they’re the second-worst offense in baseball and the only team in the junior circuit to have scored less than four runs per game on the season. What will be challenging is his mound opponent, Felix Hernandez.

Still just 23, King Felix seems to have finally become a pitcher worthy of his nickname. Despite the punchless M’s offense, Hernandez has already set a career high with 15 wins (against just five losses). More importantly, he has decreased his homer rate for the third year in a row, corrected the spike his walk rate experienced last year, and is striking out batters at a tick about his previous top rate (he’ll surpass 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career with seven more Ks). He has also benefited from the M’s improved defense, posting a BABIP below .300 for the first time since his rookie half season in 2005 and leading the league in fewest hits per nine innings. That last is a product of both his own effectiveness and the gloves behind him.

The Yankees have added first baseman Juan Miranda to the major league roster. With Jorge Posada serving a three-game suspension that finishes on Saturday, Jose Molina catches and bats ninth tonight behind the usual suspects. Melky Cabrera is in center despite Brett Gardner’s recent resurgence (six for his last 11 with two doubles).

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The Yankees threw Sergio Mitre against Roy Halladay last night and the lost 10-4. No real shock there. The Yanks did well to take an early 2-0 lead on Halladay, touch him up for 11 hits, and bounce him after 112 pitches in six innings, his earliest exit in five starts against the Yankees this year, but it was of little use. Mitre gave up two home runs in both the third and fourth innings, including a pair of monster shots to rookie slugger Travis Snider, giving the Jays a 5-2 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The real news came came in the eighth inning. With two outs, the bases empty, and the Jays up 8-2, Mark Melacon hit Aaron Hill in the lower back with the first pitch he threw to him. Hill was 0-for-4 prior to that plate appearance and was 0-for-2 against Melcanon entering the game. It seems unlikely that Melancon, who has been wild in the majors, walking 5.4 per 9 innings and hitting three other batters in his first 15 innings, intended to hit Hill. Still, Hill is an important hitter in the Jays lineup, so when Jorge Posada came to bat in the bottom of the inning, Jesse Carlson threw behind him.

Carlson’s pitch went what seemed like ten feet behind Posada, but Jorge was unwilling to shrug it off. Instead he backed out of the batter’s box, took a few steps toward the mound and told Carlson, “Don’t do that again.” The benches cleared to calm Posada down, and Posada ultimately worked a walk and came around to score on a Brett Gardner double (Gardner, by the way, went 2-for-4 with a pair of RBI hits).

Carlson was drifting toward home plate to back it up as Posada crossed the dish and Jorge gave Jesse a solid brush with is left shoulder as he went by. Carlson spun around and fired some invective at Posada, who then returned to home plate and touched off a real benches-clearing brawl.

Posada, Carlson, Jays’ catcher Rod Barajas, home plate umpire Jim Joyce, and in-the-hole hitter Johnny Damon were in the initial scrum and soon joined by Joe Girardi, who failed to pull his 38-year-old catcher out of the fray and instead got sucked into the middle of the pack and emerged with a bit of a shiner on his left eye. As one might have expected, Shelley Duncan tore into the heart of the fracas like Michael Phelps going after olympic gold and ultimately had to be pulled off Barajas like Jeff Van Gundy on Alonzo Mourning’s leg as the melee petered out.

Carlson emerged with a nasty welt on his forehead, but he and Posada were the only ejections, and Carlson remained in the dugout, hiding behind his teammates and apparently continuing to plead his innocence. Meanwhile, third base umpire Derryl Cousins was hit in the knee by a full bottle of soda thrown by a fan in the stands determined to make the players look like dignified and civilized adults. Cousins wound up being the only “participant” to suffer an injury (as far as we know).

For proving unable to let his walk and run do the talking (or shoving) for him, Posada will surely incur a suspension. Otherwise it seems the Yankees got away lucky. To his immense credit, Joe Girardi held a closed-door meeting with his team afterwords, admonishing them for doing such a foolish and risky thing this close to a postseason berth.

The Yankees had hundreds of millions of dollars of players in the middle of that fight (Mark Teixeira tried to break things up but was quickly pulled out of the ruckus, on-deck-hitter Derek Jeter was right in the middle of things, and CC Sabathia was the man who finally pulled Posada out of the pack) just three weeks shy of the playoffs. The entire season could have gone the way of Bill Lee’s shoulder Tuesday night. The Yankees are damn lucky it didn’t.

The Yankees have gone 24-10 (.706) against the two non-contenders in their division, the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, but with this brief, two-game, mid-week series against the Jays in the Bronx, that gravy train is finally pulling into the station.

The Jays and Yankees split a four-game set in Toronto, two weekends ago. Given that Sergio Mitre is taking on Roy Halladay in tonight’s game, the Yankees would probably be happy with a split here as well. Though they beat him in their previous meeting, Halladay dominated the Yankees the last time he faced them, throwing a one-hit shutout against them while striking out nine. In his four starts against the Bombers on the season, Halladay has three complete games and lasted seven full in the exception. In those 34 innings he has compiled a 2.65 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

Mitre’s last start, also against Toronto, was a disaster. He gave up 11 runs in 4 1/3 innings, though he wasn’t helped by his defense in what was one of the sloppiest games the Yankees have played all year. The Yankees run out their standard lineup behind Mitre tonight save for Brett Gardner starting in center over Melky Cabrera.

The Yankees will start Chad Gaudin against Brian Tallet in Wednesday’s finale, skipping Andy Pettitte until Monday due to a bit of late-season shoulder fatigue. Pettitte said he threw a light bullpen Monday night and “felt great,” so it seems the team is just being cautious in anticipation of the playoffs. Still, there will be some lingering concern given that it was a shoulder problem that undermined Pettitte’s performance in the second half last year.

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I hate to break it to you, but the American League races are pretty much over. With roughly 20 games left (less for the Yankees and Twins), the closest race remains the Wild Card, where the Red Sox hold a four-game lead over the Rangers. The Yankees lead the Angels by five games for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Tigers lead the Twins by 5.5 in the Central. The Angels lead the Rangers by six in the West, and the Yankees’ lead over Boston in the East is a comfortable seven games.

Unless something wild happens (and I’m not saying it won’t), the Yankees will host the Tigers in the ALDS, and the Angels will host the Red Sox. If the Yankees advance, they’ll then have homefield advantage over their ALCS opponent, which given the recent playoff history between the two teams (the Angels have won just one game in three ALDS series against Boston since 2004), is more likely to be the Red Sox than the Angels. It’s thus very possible that tonight’s make-up game, and the three games the Yankees will play in Anaheim next week, are in fact a preview of nothing, and could have no significance for the postseason at all as the Yankees would automatically have home field advantage against the Wild Card Red Sox.

Still, an ALCS matchup with the Angels remains a distinct possibility, and the Angels team that arrives in the Bronx tonight is a much better one than the one that swept the Yankees in the final series before the All-Star break. In that last series, Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter were on the DL and Scott Kazmir was a Tampa Bay Ray. All three of those players are on the Angels active roster now, and while the Yankees will face Jered Weaver, not Kazmir tonight, they make the Angels a far more dangerous team. The Angels have been winning at a .661 clip since the break, just four-games behind the Yankees’ remarkable pace.

The Yankees would do well to remember that they took two of three from the Angels in the Bronx in May, and that they’ve had some modest success against Weaver this year, scoring eight runs against him in 12 innings and connecting for three home runs (by Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Eric Hinske).

Joba Chamberlain takes the hill for the Yankees tonight. After a rough beginning to his last outing, Chamberlain settled down and retired the last eight men he faced in order. He’ll move up to four innings tonight, hoping to build off that performance.

Yankees added journeyman minor league utility man Freddy Guzman to the 40-man roster. Guzman is on his fourth organization this year and will serve as a pinch-runner, defensive replacement, then vanish back into the ether from whence he came. Standard lineup tonight against the Halos.

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