It has been two months since the last meeting between the Yankees and Rays, the teams with the two best records in baseball who also happen to share the same division, but the two teams have 13 games against each other in the second half starting with this weekend’s three-game set in the Bronx. When they last met, the Rays padded their lead in the East by winning a pair of slugfests at the Trop by a combined score of 18-12, sending the Yankees packing five games out of first place. Since then, the two teams have switched places, with the Yankees entering this weekend’s set with a two game lead in the East, having thus gained seven games on the Rays in the last two months.
Introducing that last series, I wrote about how the Rays had played over their heads to that point, scoring more runs than their component offensive numbers would suggest thanks to some effective baserunning and clutch hitting. Indeed, the primary difference between the two teams thus far has been run production. The Rays and Yankees are one and two in the AL in both fewest runs allowed (Rays: 3.85 R/G; Yanks: 4.00 R/G) and defensive efficiency (Yanks: .714; Rays: .708). The big difference is is on offense, where the Yankees have scored 5.33 runs per game with potential for second-half improvements from Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and a healthy Jorge Posada, while the Rays have scored 5.05 runs per game despite slugging just .405 as a team, the ninth-best mark in the league, which suggests they’re more likely to head in the other direction.
The Rays have improved at catcher, as 26-year-old rookie John Jaso has solidified the position with his strong on-base skills (.274/.393/.377), while former Yankee prospect Dioner Navarro, now also 26, has been farmed out to Triple-A after hitting .216/.268/.314 in 531 plate appearances between last year and this. They have yet to solve the designated hitter spot, however. When they last met the Yankees, the Rays had just dropped Pat Burrell in favor of Hank Blalock, but since then they’ve released Blalock as well, turning to Matt Joyce, the outfielder they received from the Tigers for Edwin Jackson. Joyce has shown some on-base skills of his own, walking 11 times against just seven strikeouts in 15 games, he hasn’t actually hit yet. Altogether, the Rays DHs have hit .240/.307/.373 on the season.
That’s better than what they’ve gotten from Jason Bartlett at shortstop, but at least Bartlett contributes in the fiel . . . huh? What’s that you say about his UZR numbers this season? Oh. So why hasn’t Reid Brignac stolen his job yet? Bartlett hit what last season? And what makes you think that was anything but a fluke? Hello? Hello? . . . I think they hung up.
Where was I?
Oh, so yeah, the Rays’ offense has its problems. It’s basically Crawford, Longoria, some solid on-base rates from Jaso and Ben Zobrist (.385, but a .398 slugging), the occasional Carlos Peña dinger (he has 18, but is still hitting just .203/.321/.415), and some bonus stolen bases from B.J. Upton when he actually gets on base (.230/.320/.395, but 25 for 31 on the bases). Sean Rodriguez has some power and speed, which is nice from a second-baseman, but he’s drawn just six walks all year (one every 39 plate appearances!) and has a .302 OBP.
Still, with their pitching and defense, the former of which includes a deeper end game than the Yankees thanks to strong showings from hard-throwing 32-year-old righties Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit and spectacular work from newly imported closer Rafael Soriano (1.60 ERA, 4.14 K/BB, 23 of 24 save chances converted), the Rays remain dangerous, and this weekend’s series will likely be just an opening salvo in battle between the two teams down the stretch.
While I have my eye on Sunday’s game, which pits veteran lefty Andy Pettitte against tyro southpaw David Price, both whom ranked among the top pitchers in the league in the first half, tonight’s game presents a far more favorable pitching matchup for the Yankees. It’s not that James Shields is a pushover, though he’s struggled of late, going 1-3 with a 6.29 ERA in his last four starts allowing at least four runs each time out and going 2-7 with a 7.66 ERA over his last nine appearances (eight of them starts, one a throw-day relief appearance in extra innings). It’s more that CC Sabathia has looked unbeatable of late going 8-0 with a 1.81 ERA over his last eight starts, all of them quality, all lasting a minimum of seven innings. He has faced the Rays once this year, holding them scoreless for 7 2/3 innings back on April 10, and is pitching on normal rest having started the Yankees’ last game on Sunday, so there’s little reason to expect his rhythm to be disrupted.
More good news, Juan Miranda has returned to the team to boost the feeble bench, bouncing Kevin Russo back to Scranton and starting at DH tonight and batting eighth between Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner. Jorge Posada is behind the plate, making this the best offensive lineup the Yankees have run out in some time.
The Yankees will honor Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner before the game. It seems fitting that they’re playing Tampa tonight given the Boss’s home base there and the added emphasis he always placed on beating the Rays. I expect the Yankees will do him proud tonight.
(more…)