Daily Archives: April 4, 2010

I hate to be that guy, but while I’m as excited about Opening Night against the Red Sox, set to commence in little more than a half an hour, as anyone else, I must temper my and your expectations for tonight’s game with a reminder about CC Sabathia’s tendency to stumble out of the gate. Against a career mark of 3.63, Sabathia has posted a 4.54 ERA in 39 career starts in April to go with a decidedly unimpressive 1.96 K/BB on the month. The last two years, coming off heavy workloads, his early starts have been worse.

In 2008, coming off his Cy Young season and a huge jump in innings pitched from 192 2/3 in 2006 to 256 1/3 (including the postseason) in 2007, he gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings on Opening Day against the White Sox and after four starts was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and as many walks as strikeouts. Last year, in his Yankee debut against the Orioles on Opening Day in Baltimore, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings while walking five against no strikeouts while clinging to a heating pad between innings. He didn’t struggle quite as much thereafter, but after six starts was 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.6 K/BB. Sabathia’s 7.23 ERA and 3.85 BB/9 in spring training this year (which doesn’t include a minor league start in which he was lit up but does include the five runs in 4 2/3 innings he allowed in his final spring start) don’t offer much hope for his bucking that trend this year.

If there’s a positive for Sabathia going into tonight’s start, it’s that he was nails against the Red Sox last year, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 5.17 K/BB in four starts. Then again, the Sox have added two right-handed power bats, one of whom, Mike Cameron, has hit him well in the past (6-for-13 with five extra base hits and just two strikeouts, though most of that came when Cameron was with the Mariners and he hasn’t faced Sabathia since 2004). Cameron, however, is the only member of tonight’s Red Sox lineup to have had any significant success against Sabathia.

As for Josh Beckett, he struck out 22 men against just five walks in 19 1/3 spring innings and allowed just two hits in seven innings while striking out ten Rays on Opening Day at Fenway a year ago. The key matchup for the Yankees against Beckett is new fifth-place hitter Robinson Cano, who has gone 15-for-44 (.341) against the Boston righty in his career with eight extra base hits (three of them homers) and just four strikeouts. Brett Gardner, meanwhile, has never reached base against Beckett in ten career confrontations.

Finally, thanks to Steve Lombardi at the Baseball-Reference Blog, we know that the Yankees and Red Sox last opened the season against each other at Fenway Park in 1985. Oil Can Boyd beat a 46-year-old Phil Neikro that day and the Yankees went on to lose the division to the Blue Jays by two games. (For more Opening Day ephemera, check out Diane’s debut Bantermetrics column.) The Yankees and Sox last opened the season against each other in 2005 doing so in a Sunday Night game at Yankee Stadium in which Randy Johnson beat David Wells. That year, the two teams finished with identical records, but the Yankees won the division by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Yankees were 10-9 against Boston that year. You could say they won the division on Opening Day.

If the Yankees and Red Sox met for the first time this season in late April, I might complain that it was too soon to feel meaningful, but Opening Day feels just right . . . or it would if it wasn’t actually Opening Night. [shakes fist at ESPN]

Given that I expect the battle between the Yankees and Red Sox to define this season, ideally climaxing in an American League Championship Series battle that will send the eventual world champion to the World Series, this gives me a great opportunity to whip out that hoary-yet-eternally-enjoyable tale-of-the-tape standby, the position-by-position comparison.

As is my usual style, I handle the everyday players by position in the lineup rather than position in the field, making some small swaps where a better match can be made, and comparing only offense, reserving fielding for a separate team-wide category.

Also, this is bound to be a long post, so I’ve put the two Opening Day Night rosters in the previous post.

And awaaaay we go . . .

Lineup:

Derek Jeter
2009: .334/.406/.465, .310 EqA; career: .317/.388/.459, .293 EqA
Dustin Pedroia
2009: .296/.371/.447, .280; career: .307/.370/.455, .283

Already fudging the lineups, I start my comparison with the Red Sox’s second-place hitter and the Yankee lead-off man who used to hit second because they’re such similar offensive players. Both hit for average, get on base, have modest pop, and will swipe a fair number of bases at a roughly 80 percent success rate (over the last two years, Jeter has stolen 41 of 51, Pedrioa 40 of 49). Both also hit into a fair amount of double plays, though Jeter is far more likely to strike out.

Pedroia has had a significant home/road split in his career, and it was downright severe in 2009 as he hit .318/.388/.514 at Fenway but just .273/.355/.381 on the road, but then Jeter lost nearly 60 points of slugging away from the New Yankee Stadium last year.

The big difference between Pedroia’s 2008 American League Most Valuable Player season and his still-solid 2009 campaign was his performance against left-handed pitching. In 2008, he hit .313/.376/.528 against lefties. In 2009, he hit just .277/.366/.399 against them. Given that he’s a right-handed hitter, I’d expect some rebound from Pedroia there. Combine that with some expected regression from Jeter coming off one of his most productive seasons and factor in the relative age of the two players (Pedroia is 26, Jeter will be 36 in June), and this one is closer than it might appear from the rate stats above, all of which give Jeter the edge.

Nick Johnson
2009: .291/.426/.405, .293*; career: .273/.402/.447, .299
Jacoby Ellsbury
2009: .301/.355/.415, .276; career: .297/.350/.414, .274

Jeter and Pedroia are so well matched that it’s disappointing to see this mismatch result from putting them together. Johnson and Ellsbury are completely different types of players. Ellsbury is a hitter who lacks secondary skills (power, patience) and gets a lot of his value from his legs (120 steals at 84 percent over the last two years). Johnson is a hitter whose primary value is his patience and ability to get on base. Johnson’s on-base percentage is more valuable than Ellsbury’s speed and makes Johnson a more reliable offensive performer (if Ellsbury’s singles don’t find holes one year, his production will collapse, and he won’t get many chances to steal). The catch is that Johnson is unreliable in his own way due to his inability to stay healthy. When both are in the lineup, the Yankees have the clear advantage, and one that could be even larger if Kevin Long’s work with Johnson does indeed result in increased power production. The big question is whether or not the Yankees can maintain that advantage with Johnson’s replacements when Nick hits the DL. If you add Ellsbury’s net steals to his total bases and subtract his times caught stealing from his hits, he “hit” .282/.334/.508 last year.

Mark Teixeira
2009: .292/.383/.565, .318; career: .290/.378/.545, .304
Kevin Youkilis
2009: .305/.413/.548, .317; career: .292/.391/.487, .296

One of the main arguments against Mark Teixeira’s MVP candidacy last year was that his production wasn’t unique for an American League first baseman in 2009. In addition to Youkilis, there was Miguel Cabrera (.311 EqA), and a tick below those top three Kendry Morales and Carlos Peña (both .298). Youkilis was an especially appropriate comparison because both he and Teixeira are superlative defensive first basemen, but Youkilis adds even more value by being able to play third with some regularity and even spot in the outfield.

Limited to their offensive games, Youkilis is an on-base threat who hits for power and Teixeira is a power hitter who gets on base, the differences largely coming out in the wash. Teixeira switch hits, but the righty-swinging Youkilis actually hits his fellow right-handers as well or better than he hits lefties, so that’s largely moot as well. Both got a nice slugging boost from their home parks last year, with Teixeira seeming to have benefited from his home parks more over the course of his career than Youkilis, but as per those park-adjusted career EqAs above, that too comes out in the wash.

What we have here are two of the top offensive threats in the league. If there is any meaningful difference between the two, it’s in career trajectory. Youkilis was a late bloomer who didn’t earn a starting job until his age-27 season and didn’t slug above .453 until his age-29 season in 2008 but has hit .309/.401/.559 over the last two seasons combined. Teixeira was a first-round draft pick who was in the Rangers’ starting lineup as a 23-year-old rookie and has  been remarkably consistent ever since. That means that Teixeira, who turns 30 a week from today, has had six years of production at his current level, while Youkilis, who is almost exactly a year older, has had just two. That is unlikely to mean much this season, but a few years down the road, when Youkilis suffers an Ortiz-like collapse and Teixeira is slugging his way into a Hall of Fame argument, the Yankees’ advantage will become clear.

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New York Yankees

2009 Record: 103-59 (.636)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (.586)

Manager: Joe Girardi
General Manager: Brian Cashman

Home Ballpark: Yankee Stadium 2.1

Bill James Park Indexes (2009):
LH Avg-99, LH HR-120
RH Avg-99, RH HR-133

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Curtis Granderson replaces Johnny Damon
• Nick Johnson replaces Hideki Matsui
• Randy Winn replaces Melky Cabrera
• Marcus Thames replaces Eric Hinske
• Francisco Cervelli inherits Jose Molina’s playing time
• Javier Vazquez replaces Chein-Ming Wang, Chad Gaudin, and the 17 starts made by Sergio Mitre, Aflredo Aceves, and Phil Hughes
• Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain swap roles
• Chan Ho Park replaces Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, and Edwar Ramirez
• Damaso Marte reclaims Phil Coke’s innings

25-man Roster:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF – Curtis Granderson (L)
LF – Brett Gardner (L)
DH – Nick Johnson (L)

Bench:

R – Marcus Thames (OF)
S – Randy Winn (OF)
S – Ramiro Pena (IF)
R – Francisco Cervelli (C)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
R – Javier Vazquez
R – Phil Hughes

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Chan Ho Park
R – Joba Chamberlain
L – Damaso Marte
R – David Robertson
R – Alfredo Aceves
R – Sergio Mitre

Lineup:

R – Derek Jeter (SS)
L – Nick Johnson (DH)
S – Mark Teixeira (1B)
R – Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L – Robinson Cano (2B)
S – Jorge Posada (C)
L – Curtis Granderson (CF)
S – Nick Swisher (RF)
L – Brett Gardner (LF)

*   *   *

Boston Red Sox

2009 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)

Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein

Home Ballpark: Fenway Park

Bill James Park Indexes (2007-2009):
LH Avg-108, LH HR-85
RH Avg-107, RH HR-95

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Mike Cameron replaces Jason Bay
• Adrian Beltre takes most of Mike Lowell’s playing time
• Mike Lowell picks up the at-bats of Casey Kotchman and Jeff Bailey
• Victor Martinez takes most of Jason Varitek’s playing time
• Jason Varitek picks up George Kottaras’s playing time
• Marco Scutaro replaces Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, and Julio Lugo
• Jeremy Hermida replaces Rocco Baldelli
• Bill Hall replaces Mark Kotsay
• John Lackey replaces Brad Penny and John Smoltz
• Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka will compete to take starts from Tim Wakefield
• Scott Schoeneweis replaces Takashi Saito
• Scott Atchison replaces Justin Masterson

25-man Roster:

1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Marco Scutaro (R)
3B – Adrian Beltre (R)
C – Victor Martinez (S)
RF – J.D. Drew (L)
CF – Mike Cameron (R)
LF – Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
DH – David Ortiz (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Lowell (3B/1B)
L – Jeremy Hermida (OF)
R – Bill Hall (UT)
S – Jason Varitek (C)

Rotation:

R – Josh Beckett
L – Jon Lester
R – John Lackey
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Clay Buchholz

Bullpen:

R – Jon Papelbon
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Daniel Bard
S – Ramon S. Ramirez
R – Manny Delcarmen
L – Scott Schoeneweis
R – Scott Atchison

Lineup:

L – Jacoby Ellsbury (LF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
S – Victor Martinez (C)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Adrian Beltre (3B)
L – J.D. Drew (RF)
R – Mike Cameron (CF)
R – Marco Scutaro (SS)

15-day DL:

RHP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (back)
RHP – Boof Bonser (groin)
SS – Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis)
RHP – Junichi Tazawa (Tommy John surgery)

…Curtis Granderson.

Curtis Granderson’s 2007 numbers read like fiction. It’s hard for me to imagine a player with 38 doubles 23 triples who stole successfully 26 of 27 tries, and still managed to insert 23 homers into his statline. And for good measure, one of those homers was an inside-the-park job versus the Yanks. You’d feel ashamed to create such a player’s strat-o-matic card or video game profile because you know you’d be cooking the books.

Curtis bats with an exaggerated squat, open hips, and active hands. His long swing is powerful but imprecise and finishes high, with only the bottom hand left on the bat. I remember thinking he was an easy whiff in Game 2 of the 2006 ALDS when Mussina faced him in 2 crucial need-a-K-here at bats. Granderson, who whiffed 171 times that year, responded with a sacrifice fly and a triple in those trips and swung the series for good. Perhaps that says more about Mussina’s stuff in 2007 than Granderson’s ability to make solid contact when necessary, but I left the Stadium day impressed with the young left hander (and of course, extremely pissed off).

This player is donning pinstripes for the upcoming season and I’m thrilled. But between 2007 and Sunday night, a few things have transpired to temper expectations for score-sheet-stuffing. 1) Granderson turned in a 2009 performance that reads like a speedier Nick Swisher without the walks. 2) The Yankees have choses for Granderson to replace Damon in the matrix rather than the Melky/Gardner combo. It was inconceivable to project a Melky/Gardner platoon as superior to even a diminished Granderson. But the Yankees are now relying on Curtis, who is 2 years removed from the sublime (but only one removed from the very good), to be a big bat. When first acquired, I thought of Granderson as gravy. Now he is meat.

But even with expectations tempered, there are a lot of great reasons to expect Granderson to thrive in Yankee Stadium. His doubles and triples will never recover to 2007 levels in Yankee Stadium, but, much to the chagrin of the Ken Burns commentator who longs for the “old fashioned batter who doubles to left and triples to right,” a substantial number of them should turn into homeruns. And when he hits the roads, I expect Granderson to put up crooked numbers in often neglected corners of the scoresheet.

Aside from needing for Mariano to be perfect and hoping for Jeter to continue his march toward 3000 hits (with power please), there’s no player I’m looking forward to watching in 2010 than Curtis Granderson. Which player(s) will you be focusing on when the season starts tonight?

As we hit another Opening Day, and CC Sabathia’s second Opening Day start for the Bombers, I decided to take a look at some of the history behind the pitchers who got the nod.

In the franchise’s 107-year history, 57 men have taken the hill on Opening Day.  Whitey Ford, Mel Stottlemyre and Ron Guidry are tied for most Opening Day starts, with seven.

Ford’s seven starts actually took place over a 13-season span, from 1954 to 1966.  He never started more than two openers consecutively.  Don Larsen (2 starts), Bob Turley, Jim Coates (!), Jim Bouton and Ralph Terry got the assignments in the non-Ford years.

Stottlemyre was the ace of the staff during the lean post-dynasty years.  He threw the first pitch every year from ’67 to ’74, except for ’71, when Stan Bahnsen opened things up.

“Gator” started what would be his memorable 25-3 1978 campaign as the Opening Day starter in ’78 (he got a “no decision” that day, as the Yanks lost 2-1 at Texas).  Guidry started six more Openers in the next eight years, missing only 1981 (Tommy John got the assignment) and 1985 (Phil Niekro).

The period from 1987-1992 was muddled to downright depressing, depending on your point of view.  Six different managers, three in-season managerial changes, and four consecutive seasons with winning percentages lower than .470 (which hadn’t happened since 1912-15 . . . and the Yankees were the Highlanders in ’12).  Four of those six years saw the team use at least 20 different pitchers.  So, it should be no surprise than six different men got the Opening Day start during that period (Dennis Rasmussen, Rick Rhoden, Tommy John, Dave LaPoint, Tim Leary and Scott Sanderson).  If you add in Guidry’s final Opener (1986), and Jimmy Key’s first Opener (1993), then there were eight different starters over eight years, the longest streak in franchise history.

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Happy Easter y’all. This was always one of my favorite holidays as a kid (one of the benefits of having a Catholic mother and a Jewish father–double holidays!). My mom was big on painting eggs the night before; we’d wake up Easter morning and have an Easter Egg hunt (and if the weather was lousy we’d have it inside).

Welp, today Easter falls on Opening Day, or Opening Night of the 2010 baseball season. It’s the 8th Opening Day for us here at the Banter and we’re thrilled and delighted to have you guys along with us for what promises to be another absorbing season of Yankees baseball.

Let’s do this like Brutus.

After all of that, the Yankees are going north with a roster that differs from the one I projected on February 22 by exactly one player. Sergio Mitre beat out Chad Gaudin, since released and signed by the A’s, for the final spot in the bullpen. Otherwise there were no huge surprises in camp. Phil Hughes winning the fifth-starter’s job over Joba Chamberlain was a bit unexpected, but both are on the roster, Joba in the bullpen, and all of the lip service about Alfredo Aceves, Gaudin, and Mitre being in the running for the rotation proved to be just that after Aceves and Mitre pitched so well and wound up in the bullpen. Marcus Thames didn’t hit and still made the team as a non-roster player, Boone Logan’s option proved more appealing that Boone Logan’s left arm, and Aceves (back), Damaso Marte (shoulder), Francisco Cervelli (hamstring), Jorge Posada (stiff neck), and perhaps most surprisingly, Nick Johnson (knee) all avoided the disabled list and are headed to Boston.

Still, there’s some organizational housekeeping to take care of. Mike Rivera, who was to be the third-string catcher, was released and replaced with 2008 third-stringer Chad Moeller, who spent last year in that role with the Orioles. Rule 5 pick Kanekoa Texeira made the Mariners’ bullpen, though they’ll have to keep him on their 25-man roster all season in order to avoid having to offer him back to the Yankees. A 24-year-old righty reliever, Kanekoa came over from the White Sox’s organization in the Nick Swisher trade (effectively for fellow righty reliever Jhonny Nuñez, who was acquired from the Nationals for infielder Alberto Gonzalez). He pitched well in relief in Double-A last year, but never got the call to Triple-A. Ironically, Nuñez was traded for Texeira in that deal in part because the Yankees didn’t have room on the 40-man to protect Nuñez, who made his major league debut with the Chisox last year. Lefty reliever Zach Kroenke, the Yankees’ other outgoing Rule 5 pick, because he was selected last year as well and returned, didn’t have to be offered back to the Yankees when he failed to make the Diamondbacks. Instead, he cleared waivers and accepted a minor league assignment from the D’backs.

With that out of the way, we’re all set for Opening Night tonight. I will post the full Yankee and Red Sox rosters as well as an extensive comparison of the two teams around 3pm this afternoon. The game thread should go up around 7:30. First pitch, from Josh Beckett to Derek Jeter, is scheduled for 8:05 pm EST. Hope to see you all here then.