There’s not a lot of intrigue in Yankee camp this year. The team arrives as defending champions and, as I wrote in my campers post, the 25-man roster is fairly predictable given the players in camp. Joe Girardi does have to work out how he’s going to distribute playing time in left and center field and decide on a basic batting order, but the roles of the players involved aren’t likely to change much no matter what he decides. The only significant suspense March holds for Yankee fans, save wondering if Nick Johnson can survive the month with all of his bones and ligaments intact, is in the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. Fifth-starter battles are typically slap fights among assorted marginal minor leaguers and veteran retreads, but the battle in Yankee camp this spring pits the organization’s top two young arms against one another in a four-week competition that could have significant repercussions for the futures of both pitchers.

That would be a lot more exciting if there wasn’t as much fan fatigue over Joba Chamberlain’s pitching role as there is over Brett Farve’s flirtations with retirement, but it’s important to note that, for all of the debates, role changes, rule changes, and innings limits, the Yankees have Chamberlain exactly where they want him this spring, coming off a season of 160 innings pitched and ready to spend a full season in the rotation without having a cap placed on his innings pitched. For that reason, I believe that the Yankees are looking at the fifth starter’s job as Chamberlain’s to lose, though they’d ever admit it. Chamberlain is nine months older that Hughes and a season ahead of Hughes in terms of his innings progress (Hughes threw 111 2/3 innings between the minors, majors, and postseason last year; Chamberlain threw 100 1/3 in 2008). If Chamberlain claims the fifth-starter job this year, and the Yankees can find Hughes 150-odd innings, Hughes can follow Chamberlain into the rotation as a full-fledged starter in 2010 on the heals of the free agency of both Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez. If that happens, the Yankees will have established both young studs in the rotation before their 25th birthdays. They’re thisclose.

There are just two problems. First, Chamberlain got his innings to the right place last year, but his head and stuff seemed to go in the opposite direction. Second, getting Hughes 150 innings this year with Chamberlain eating up close to 200 in the rotation could prove to be as challenging as limiting Chamberlain to 160 last year.

Taking the latter first, the flip-side of the fifth-starter battle is the assumption that the loser will move back in to the eighth-inning role that both young pitchers have excelled at in recent seasons. In his 50 career major league relief appearances during the regular season, Chamberlain has posted a 1.50 ERA and struck out 11.9 men per nine innings while holding opposing hitters to a .182/.255/.257 line. Hughes, in 44 regular season relief appearances, all from last year, posted a 1.40 ERA and 11.4 K/9 while opposing batters hit .172/.228/.228. That sort of late-game dominance is hard to resist (thus the endless Joba debates), but both pitchers would be more valuable throwing 200 innings a year than 60, and given the impending free agency of Pettitte and Vazquez not to mention A.J. Burnett’s injury history, the Yankees have to resist slotting the loser of this spring’s competition into that role to such a degree that they’re unwilling to stretch him back out during the season, as they were with Hughes last year. Doing so would reset the clock on that pitcher’s journey toward the rotation and thus could severely damage his career path.

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The big news out of Yankee camp today is that Edwar Ramirez was designated for assignment to make room for Chan Ho Park. Ramirez was out of options and a long-shot at best for a spot on the Opening Day roster, so the Yankees were going to have to do something with him by the end of spring training. This takes care of that bit of business early.

The big news yesterday was that Joe Girardi has set his pitching rotation for the first week and a half of the exhibition schedule. Chad Jennings has the full details, and I’ve updated our sidebar with the first week’s action. CC Sabathia will start the second game to put him on schedule for the season opener. Barring injury or setback, the regular season rotation will start with CC followed by A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and then Javier Vazquez. Pettitte won’t pitch in a spring training game until March 12, but will throw a simulated game on March 7 to get his work in and stay on schedule while Gaudin and Sergio Mitre work in the actual game.

Programing note: I’ll be doing my annual live blog on Friday, covering the third game of the spring, which will feature both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, in that order, on the mound.

Shameless self-promotion: This afternoon at 3pm I will be appearing at the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center for an extended Q&A with Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Kevin Goldstein, and Christina Kahrl to promote Baseball Prospectus 2010.

I must admit, the Yankees caught me completely off guard when they signed Chan Ho Park Sunday night. I figured their bullpen was pretty much set with the loser of the fifth-starter battle between Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes working the eighth inning, Damaso Marte the lefty, David Robertson as the secondary righty, Alfredo Aceves and Chad Gaudin as long/swing men, and Mark Melancon hoping to make his way into the final spot and force the Yankees to bounce Sergio Mitre from the 40-man roster. So where does Park fit?

Toward the top. Park’s 2009 season doesn’t look that impressive on its face because he was awful in seven starts for the Phillies, but after moving to the bullpen, he posted a 2.52 ERA and struck out 52 men in 50 innings. Over the final three months of the season, that ERA shrank to 1.52. Park wasn’t as sharp in the postseason, but one could blame that on the hamstring pull that cost him a month and kept him out of the NLDS. In his career, Park has posted a 3.95 ERA in relief, nearly a half run better than his career mark as a starter, along with an 8.7 K/9. Indeed, though Park signed so late because he was hoping to catch on elsewhere as a starter, it has been his move to the bullpen over the past two seasons that has salvaged his career in his late 30s (he’ll be 37 in early June).

The first Korean-born major leaguer, Park emerged as the Dodgers’ second-best starter (behind Kevin Brown) around the turn of the millennium and hit the free agent market at the age of 28 with a 80-54 career record and a 3.80 career ERA. The Rangers, who had given Alex Rodriguez the biggest contract in major league history the previous year, signed Park to a five-year deal worth $65 million only to watch him completely fall apart.

The move from the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium to the homer-happy Ballpark at Arlington did him no favors , but one could have seen that coming (Park’s home ERA during his Dodger years was 3.19, but his road ERA was 4.72). More alarmingly, after averaging 213 2/3 innings a year in his last five seasons in L.A., Park suddenly couldn’t stay healthy.

A hamstring injury limited Park to 25 starts in 2002, and that was the most he would make in any one season for the Rangers. Meanwhile, while his 6.84 home ERA that season would prove to be sadly typical. Park made just 23 more starts for the Rangers over the next two seasons combined due to a back injury which surely contributed to his 5.96 ERA in those outings. Park’s contract quickly proved to be a major albatross for the Rangers, leading some to speculate that it was part of the team’s motivation for shipping Rodriguez to the Bronx in February 2004.

Park finally stayed healthy in 2005 but was no more effective. When the trading deadline came, the soon-to-be-NL-West-champion Padres, perhaps wagering on the effects of their new pitchers’ haven, Petco, took Park and $13 million of his 2006 salary off the Rangers’ hands for the remains of Phil Nevin. Despite the friendlier home environment, Park’s struggles continued. He posted a 5.91 ERA down the stretch in ’05, and made just 21 starts in ’06, missing time when it was discovered that he suffered from an intestinal defect known as Meckel’s diverticulum. When able to pitch, he posted a 5.45 ERA on the road.

With his contract finally expired, Park didn’t find an employer for 2007 until Valentine’s Day. He signed with the Mets, but failed to make the team out of spring training and wound up making just one appearance for the big club, giving up seven runs in four innings in a late-April spot start before being released. The Astros signed him to a minor-league deal, but declined to call him up as he posted a 6.21 ERA and allowed 18 home runs in 15 starts for Triple-A Round Rock of the Pacific Coast League.

Seemingly out of chances, Park went home again in 2008, catching on with the Dodgers as a non-roster invitee on a minor league deal. Having made just five relief appearances over the previous ten seasons, Park made the Dodgers as a reliever and pitched well out of the pen (3.84 ERA), well enough, at least, for the Phillies, who beat Park’s Dodgers in the NLCS in ’08, to sign him to a $2.5 million deal and bring him in as a fifth-starter candidate the next spring.

As stated above, Park was a disaster as a starter for the Phillies, but he continued to gain momentum as a reliever suggesting that, after six years in the wilderness, he has finally found away to recapture the major league success he had in his twenties, doing so in a hitter-friendly home park, no less.

Despite that success, Park isn’t going to take the eighth-inning job away from the fifth-starter loser, but he could well bounce Robertson down a rung. His presence also all but guarantees that Sergio Mitre will not make the roster, which is worth Park’s $1.2 million salary alone. Park, despite his struggles in the Phillies rotation, also gives the Yankees another potential swing man should Gaudin or Aceves, the former of whom is on a non-guaranteed contract like Mitre and the latter of whom has options remaining, struggle. If Park struggles and Melancon continues to dominate at Triple-A, the $1.2 million the Yankees owe Park is small enough that they could eat the remainder.

Ultimately what Park gives the team is another option, one that had a fair amount of success working out of the pen for playoff teams in each of the last two seasons and thus brings a fair amount of upside to the table, but who also came cheap enough to be discarded if he fails to realize that upside, which means there’s very little downside to the deal. Well done.

The Yankees enter camp this year as the defending world champions for the first time since 2001. That year, they made it all the way back to the seventh game of the World Series. The 2010 Yankees stand a very good chance of also repeating as AL Champions, but they’ll have to fight off a vastly improved Red Sox team to do so. The Yankees didn’t sit on their laurels this offseason. As they did with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu a year ago, they let two popular and productive but aging players leave as free agents in 36-year-old Johnny Damon and soon-to-be-36-year-old Hideki Matsui, replaced them with younger players in soon-to-be-29-year-old Curtis Granderson and the fragile Nick Johnson (31), and made a big addition to their rotation to boot, adding Javier Vazquez via trade with the Braves. Granderson and prodigal sons Johnson and Vazquez are joined by fourth outfielder Randy Winn and right-hander Chan Ho Park as the big new additions to this year’s club, but there are still a couple of spots up for grabs on the Opening Day roster, a huge battle to be waged between the team’s top two young arms for the fifth spot in the rotation, and the lingering question of how playing time will be distributed among Granderson, Winn, and Brett Gardner in left and center field. Those battles will be the primary focus of my coverage in the coming six weeks, but for now let’s take a look at the other unfamiliar faces you’re likely to see in camp this spring.

First, is the 25-man roster as I expect it will be constructed on Opening Day:

1B – Mark Teixeira (S)
2B – Robinson Cano (L)
SS – Derek Jeter (R)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (R)
C – Jorge Posada (S)
RF – Nick Swisher (S)
CF/LF – Curtis Granderson (L)
LF/CF – Brett Gardner (L)
DH – Nick Johnson (L)

Bench:

OF – Randy Winn (S)
OF – Marcus Thames (R)
IF – Ramiro Peña (S)
C – Francisco Cervelli (R)

Rotation:

L – CC Sabathia
R – A.J. Burnett
L – Andy Pettitte
R – Javier Vazquez
R – Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes

Bullpen:

R – Mariano Rivera
R – Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes
L – Damaso Marte
R – Chan Ho Park
R – David Robertson
R – Alfredo Aceves
R – Chad Gaudin

Gaudin may have to fend off some challengers for his spot, though his contract and solid performance down the stretch last year favors him strongly. Thames and Peña, however, will have a bigger fight on their hands as Peña has a few legitimate challengers in camp and Thames arrives as a non-roster player. Including those three, here are the 45 players in camp looking to make their case for one of the final roster spots. They are:

40-man roster hitters (7):

OF – Jamie Hoffmann (R)

The Yankees traded Brian Bruney to the Washington Nationals in December in return for the rights to the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. With that pick, the Yanks had Washington take Hoffmann, a big, 25-year-old right fielder out of the Dodgers’ system who made his major league debut in late May of last year but was designated for assignment in September. Bruney was traded before the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson, but the Rule 5 draft occurred after the Granderson trade, and Granderson’s past struggles against left-handed pitching are likely why the Yankees decided to choose the righty-hitting outfielder Hoffmann. That puts Hoffmann in direct competition with Marcus Thames and a few others for the roster spot sure to be devoted to a right-handed outfielder.

An undrafted free-agent out of a Minnesota high school, Hoffmann has a power build (6-foot-3, 235 lbs), but hasn’t shown much power at the plate, slugging just .401 on his minor league career with an isolated power of just 118 (for comparison’s sake, Melky Cabrera’s major league career ISO is 116) and a career-high homer total of just 11, set across three levels last year. Hoffmann will take his walks and steal some bases, but he’s not particularly efficient at the latter (68 percent success rate in his minor league career) and doesn’t draw enough of the former to make on-base percentage the focus of his offensive game (his career mark is .355). He has a solid defensive reputation, and has played all three pastures, but his experience in center is limited (81 games career) and he’s spent just 13 games in left, all of them in 2007. Hoffmann did hit .308/.432/.542 against lefties in Triple-A last year, but that performance was completely unprecedented as he’d had a reverse split the previous four years. The Yankees would have been better off using the Rule 5 pick on a compelling arm for the last spot in the bullpen, such as Cleveland’s Yohan Piño. Hoffmann seems destined to be offered back to L.A.

IF – Ramiro Peña (S)

Peña surprised everyone by making the Opening Day roster last year despite never playing a game above Double-A, and thanks to the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Cody Ransom, he held on to that roster spot clean through the end of June, when he was pushed to Triple-A by Ransom’s return and the acquisition of Eric Hinske. Peña is a strong fielder, a natural shortstop who can also play second and third and filled in at all three for the Yankees last year. Unfortunately, he is also a dud at the plate. A career .255/.315/.320 hitter in the minors, he hit right around those marks in Scranton after finally making his Triple-A debut last July. He hit .287 for the Yankees, but with just five walks and eight extra-base hits in 121 plate appearances and his .340 average on balls in play suggests that his solid batting average was largely luck. The Yankees like the 24-year-old Peña and had him play some center field while in Scranton in order to make him a true utility player, but he enters camp having played just seven games in the outfield. It will be interesting to see if he gets any work in the pastures in Florida. He is the favorite for the utility infield spot, but only because of his incumbency and the shortcomings of his competition.

2B – Kevin Russo (R)

If the Yankees want a utility infielder who can hit, Russo might be their man. Over the past two seasons, at Double-A and Triple-A, the 25-year-old Russo hit .318/.379/.424. There’s no power there (he has just 12 home runs in 1,299 minor league plate appearances), but he’s a .300 hitter on his minor league career and, unlike Peña, will take his walks. The catch is that Russo is a second baseman who can spot at third but has played just six games at shortstop as a pro. That’s what kept him in Triple-A last year and is likely to do so again this year.

IF – Reegie Corona (S)

Given Russo’s defensive limitations, this 23-year-old Venezuelan is the camper most likely to challenge Peña for the utility infield spot. Corona was the second overall pick in the 2008 Rule 5 draft, but was returned by the Mariners. Primarily a second baseman, he has played 242 games at shortstop in the minors and spotted at third, first, and even saw some time in the outfield in the Sally League in 2006. Peña is the better fielder of the two, but Coronoa has the upper hand at the plate due to his ability to draw walks. Reegie walked 65 times against 70 strikeouts between Double- and Triple-A last year, and while his .338 career minor league on-base percentage isn’t particularly thrilling, it’s 76 points above his .262 batting average, which is an above-average Isolated Discipline. Over the past four seasons, his OBP has been exactly one point above or below .346. Corona will have to flash that ability to get on base in camp as it’s really his only advantage over Peña. Reegie didn’t hit in his short Triple-A debut late last year, and he has no power (.342 career slugging percentage).

SS – Eduardo Nuñez (R)

The 22-year-old Nuñez has always seemed like the junior version of Peña, a skinny, Latin shortstop who is slick afield and inept at the plate. A career .271/.313/.366 hitter in the minors, Nuñez appeared to have a breakout with the bat in his Double-A debut last year, but, like Peña’s major league debut, it was mostly batting average (.322/.349/.433). Nuñez does have more power than Peña and Corona, but that’s like being the warmest city in Canada. He can also play second and third, but he has no real shot at the major league roster with such a similar player ahead of him on the depth chart.

1B – Juan Miranda (L)

Miranda is a decent hitter, but his .280/.366/.474 career line, which properly represents his skills, is below average for a first baseman, and as a lefty, he’s not what the Yankees are looking for this spring, though circumstances could make him valuable later in the season. He’ll be 27 in late April and is entering the final year of the four-year major league contract he signed after defecting from Cuba in 2006. That contract might seem like a bust, but it only cost the team $2.07 million, and Miranda has hit .368/.435/.579 in his two major league cups of coffee (23 PA). If Miranda has a couple of hot months as an injury replacement for Nick Johnson this year, the Yankees will have gotten their money’s worth.

CF – Greg Golson (R)

Acquired from the Rangers last month for punchless minor league infielder Mitch Hilligoss, Golson, a former Phillies prospect, is a toolsy center fielder with a brutal plate approach that the Yankees are hoping they can fix. Still just 24, Golson is a solid fielder with a strong arm, tremendous speed, and a bit of pop, but he has struck out 737 times in 634 minor league games against just 148 unintentional walks, a K/BB ratio of nearly 5:1. He’s not in camp to battle for a roster spot. He’s here so the Yankees can get a good look at him, and because he’s on the 40-man roster.

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Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week, but there are already Yankees in camp working out. The Yankees have no players returning from major injuries (Chien-Ming Wang and Xavier Nady having both moved on), and it will be weeks before we’ll find out if Joba Chamberlain can find the missing ticks on his fastball and more than a month before Joe Girardi names a fifth starter or a left fielder. So, with pitchers and catchers somewhat anticlimactic, and spring training games still three weeks away, what are you anxious to see or hear about as the players begin reporting to camp?

One reason I’ve been rather silent of late is that there’s been jack all going on with the Yankees. The debate over left field never really moved me. To me it was obvious: put Granderson in left, Gardner in center, and enjoy the big defensive upgrade without losing anything on offense versus Damon and Melky. Still, with Johnny Damon still unsigned and Curtis Granderson well known for his struggles against left-handed pitching, there was grist for the mill. That ended yesterday, when the Yankees signed Randy Winn to a one-year deal for the $2 million that they had previously stated was all that remained of their budget for the 2010 season. Winn’s intended role on the 2010 Yankees will be a veteran bench bat, insurance against Gardner struggling, and a possible righty-swinging caddy for Granderson provided Winn can bounce back from what Jay Jaffe reported on twitter was the worst single season righty-vs-lefty split on record (.158/.184/.200 in 125 plate appearances).

Winn will be 36 in June, which doesn’t bode well for a big rebound, but on his career the switch-hitting Winn’s splits are very close to even, so some correction seems a given. Jaffe also posted Winn’s PECOTA projection from the upcoming Baseball Prospectus 2010, which is a mildly more encouraging .270/.333/.380 (.252 EqA). Does that line look familiar to you? Here’s a hint: the departed switch-hitting member of the 2009 Yankees’ starting outfield has a career .269/.331/.385 line.

That’s right, Randy Winn is Melky Cabrera, just a decade older and on the wrong side of his production curve. Melky is the better defensive center fielder and has a much stronger arm (Winn will evoke plenty of Johnny Damon references when he flings the ball back to the infield with that wet noodle hanging off his right shoulder), however Winn is better basestealer (over the last four years Melky had 44 steals at 76 percent, Winn had 66 at 81 percent), and is a much better defensive corner outfielder (save for the arm, of course). For what it’s worth, the Braves will pay Melky $3.1 million for the 2010 season having settled prior to arbitration.

So Winn is a veteran with range in the corners, speed on the bases, and something between average and replacement-level production at the plate? Sounds like a fourth outfielder to me. If not for his age, I’d say Winn has a bit more upside than that. He can play center passably, and on his career has been a near perfect league-average hitter (.286/.344/.418, 99 OPS+, .267 EqA). If he has a bit of a dead-cat bounce in the Bronx, he’ll go from being a typical bench player to something of an asset. Then again, if he doesn’t and Gardner struggles or an injury hits the outfield, the Yankees will have to start scrambling for Plan C, which might not be lefty-hitting Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann if Winn takes his spot on the 25-man roster.

To recap: *shrug*, as long as he doesn’t start too often . . .

In other outfield news, the Yankees traded minor league infielder Mitchell Hilligoss to the Rangers for former Phillies center-field prospect Greg Golson, who had been designated for assignment. Hilligoss was an appropriate token player for a DFA trade, a college shortstop taken in the third-round in 2006 who quickly moved to third, failed to hit in High-A each of the last two years, will be 25 in June, and played more first base than short or third in 2009.

Golson is now on the 40-man roster, but has options remaining. Former Rangers scout Frank Piliere described Golson as a tremendous athlete with elite speed, a strong arm, good range afield, and solid character, but something of a mess at the plate. Golson’s minor league stats back that up. Drafted out of an Austin, Texas high school with the 21st overall pick in 2004, Golson has swiped 140 bases at 79 percent in 5 1/2 pro seasons and shown a bit of pop, topping out at 15 homers between High-A and Double-A at age 21, but his swing and plate discipline are a disaster. He has struck out 737 times in 634 minor league games against just 148 unintentional walks, a K/BB ratio of nearly 5:1.

Golson is still just 24 and has a small taste of the majors and a year of Triple-A under his belt, so there’s some hope that if the Yankees can fix his approach at the plate, his athleticism could yield immediate results. That’s a huge “if,” but it seems worth the 40-man spot at least for a few months to find out if he can be fixed, particularly given that he is a righty-hitting center fielder. He’s certainly an upgrade on Freddy Guzman, though that’s an absurdly low standard.

With Winn, Golson, and Hoffmann behind intended starters Granderson, Swisher, and Gardner, the Yankees now have six outfielders on their 40-man roster. They’re done save for an non-roster offer to a righty outfield bat (with ex-Rays Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and ex-Yank Marcus Thames among the names being tossed around). Barring injury, Gardner will start, Winn will start the season on the bench, and Golson will start in Austin Jackson’s place in Scranton. All that remains is for the team to make a decision on keeping Hoffmann, which if they do bring in an experienced righty NRI, they likely won’t.

Pitchers and catchers report three weeks from today.

So, the Yankees won the World Series last year, the first time they’ve done so in the seven postseasons since I started blogging about them, and I didn’t write a single word in acknowledgment of that fact. In fact, I haven’t made any attempt to look back a the 2009 Yankees at all thus far. Blame the World Baseball Classic. The WBC delayed the start of the 2009 regular season, pushing the World Series into November, and when the Yankees finally wrapped up number 27, I had to attend to commitments to Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus that ran right into the holidays (baby’s first Christmas!). Before I knew it, it was 2010. I figured I had missed the boat by that point, but with the NFL playoffs on hold for two weeks in anticipation of the Colts-Saints Super Bowl, and Pitchers and Catchers still more than three weeks away, now seems like as good a time as any to look back at 2009 before we move forward with 2010. I’ll start with the obvious: letter grades for the 2009 team, which will serve as both the follow-up to my mid-season grades, and something of a preface to my annual “campers” post, which typically skips over the players who are assured roster spots. Hitters today, pitchers and the manager tomorrow.

Mark Teixeira, 1B

54.7 VORP, -3.7 UZR
.292/.383/.565,  39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 43 2B, 344 TB

Misguided calls for Teixeira to earn the American League Most Valuable Player award put me in the odd position of arguing against a player I actively campaigned for last fall, despite the fact that he was having exactly the sort of season I hoped and expected he would. Removed from the absurd suggestion that he was more valuable than Joe Mauer last year, I don’t have a single bad thing to say about Teixeira. He finished in the top ten in the league in VORP, tied his career-best OPS+, and his counting stats across the board were near perfect matches for his career averages per 162 games. He led the AL in home runs (tied with Carlos Peña), RBIs, and total bases, and won what I thought was a deserved Gold Glove (UZR’s shortcomings in evaluating first-base defense lead me to trust my eyes rather than that stat in this case).

Teixeira’s postseason batting line was unimpressive, but he nonetheless made his impact with a few big hits (most notably his game-winning home run in the 11th inning of Game 2 of the ALDS) and his glove, the latter of which played a major roll in bases-loaded, no-out escape acts by David Robertson and Mariano Rivera in the ALDS and ALCS, respectively.

A

Robinson Cano, 2B

50.3 VORP, -5.2 UZR
.320/.352/.520, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 103 R, 48 2B, 331 TB

The Yankees’ improvement from an 89-win team that missed the playoffs in 2008 to a 103-win team that won the World Series in 2009 had two sources. One was the big offseason acquisitions of Teixeira, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Nick Swisher, but the other, the rebounds by 2008 disappointments including Cano, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, and even Derek Jeter, was far more significant. Mark Teixeira was roughly a three-win improvement over Jason Giambi (+24.5 VORP rounded up for his glove, using 10 runs ~ 1 win), but Robinson Cano was almost a five-win improvement over the 2008 version of himself (+43.8 VORP again rounded up for some improvement in the field). Cano didn’t merely bounce back; at age 26, he had his finest season yet, setting career highs in games, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, homers, total bases, and VORP and posting his best major league K/BB ratio (2.1). Cano’s UZR above looks problematic, but he was at -8.0 in 2008, and those who watched him all season thought he was solidly above average.

Whatever you make of Cano’s fielding, he did have one major hole in his game in 2009. Cano hit .376/.407/.609 with the bases empty, but just .207/.242/.332 with men in scoring position. He also struggled in the postseason, hitting just .193/.266/.281. Still, he had the third best VORP total among major league second basemen behind future Hall of Famer Chase Utley and ’09 fluke Ben Zobrist, so it’s hard to complain too much about the details.

A

Derek Jeter, SS

72.8 VORP, 6.6 UZR
.334/.406/.465, 18 HR, 107 R, 30 SB (86%)

If the Yankees had a legitimate MVP candidate in 2009 it was Jeter, who finished fourth in the majors in VORP trailing only Mauer in the AL (albeit by 18.2 runs). To put it simply, Jeter’s 2009 season was one of the best seasons in the career of a legitimate first-ballot Hall of Famer. Depending on how much emphasis you place on his defense (or which statistic you use to evaluate it), 2009 might have been Jeter’s second-best season ever behind only his otherworldly 1999 (103.9 VORP), though I’m tempted to rank it behind his 2006 campaign as well. In addition to setting a career high in UZR (a stat which only dates back to 2002), Jeter posted a career best K/BB ratio (1.25) in 2009, both of which suggest that it was hard work rather than good fortune which improved Jeter’s performance in 2009. As we await the annual barrage of reports of players reporting to camp “in the best shape of his life,” it’s worth noting that conditioning can make a difference.

A+

Alex Rodriguez, 3B

52.3 VORP, -8.6 UZR
.286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB (88%)

Before he could even get into a spring training game, Alex Rodriguez was outed as a former steroid user and diagnosed with a torn hip labrum that required surgery. Things could only get better, and boy did they. Rodriguez returned in early May and homered on the first pitch he saw, and though his batting average struggled a bit early on and the surgically repaired hip hindered him in the field, Rodriguez was undiminished at the plate. Then came the postseason. Rodriguez hit .363/.414/.648 in the first 100 postseason plate appearances of his career, but his .143/.314/.214 mark in the next 70 gave him an undeserved reputation as a choker. No more. Rodriguez hit .365/.500/.800 as he led the Yankees to the title with one of the great postseason performances of all time. His biggest hits were home runs that tied up Games 2 of the ALDS and ALCS in the bottom of the ninth and 11th innings, respectively, and a key RBI double with two outs in the bottom of the ninth as the Yankees rallied against Brad Lidge in Game Four of the World Series, but there were many more as he connected for six homers and drove in 18 runs in total, the latter falling just one RBI shy of the record for a single postseason. Add those postseason totals to his regular season line in place of his missing April, and his totals swell to .294/.413/.560 with 36 homers, 118 RBIs, and 92 walks.

A

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The Red Sox getting new ownership (via some shady Bud Selig-orchestrated machinations), hiring Bill James and a 28-year-old Yale-educated general manager, and ending their 86-year drought with two championships might have been the better story, but objectively speaking, the Yankees were, once again, the team of the decade. The Yankees won more games (965, 45 more than the Red Sox and an average of 96.5 per year), more pennants (four), more division titles (eight), and made more postseasons (nine) than any other team in the just-completed ’00s and were tied with only the Red Sox with two World Series wins. Here then is an objective look back at the Yankees of the ’00s.

The Teams

By Regular-Season Record:

1. 2002: 103-58 (.640), lost ALDS
2. 2009: 103-59 (.636), won WS
3. 2003: 101-61 (.623), lost WS
4. 2004: 101-61 (.623), lost ALCS
5. 2006: 97-65 (.599), lost ALDS
6. 2001: 95-65 (.594), lost WS
7. 2005: 95-67 (.586), lost ALDS
8. 2007: 94-68 (.580), Wild Card, lost ALDS
9. 2008: 89-73 (.549)
10. 2000: 87-74 (.540), won WS

By Postseason Wins:

1. 2009: 11-4 (.733), won WS
2. 2000: 11-5 (.688), won WS
3. 2001: 10-7 (.588), lost WS
4. 2003: 9-8 (.529), lost WS
5. 2004: 6-5 (.545), lost ALCS
6. 2005: 2-3 (.400), lost ALDS
7. 2002, 2006, 2007: 1-3 (.250), lost ALDS

Managers

Joe Torre: 773-519 (.598), 1 championship, 3 pennants, 4 ALCS, 7 division titles, 1 Wild Card

Joe Girardi: 192-132 (.593), 1 championship, 1 pennant, 1 ALCS, 1 division title (all 2009)

Players

Most Games Started by Position:

1B – Jason Giambi (493), Tino Martinez (373)
2B – Robinson Cano (714), Alfonso Soriano (461)
SS – Derek Jeter (1,480)
3B – Alex Rodriguez (862), Scott Brosius (253), Robin Ventura (206)
C – Jorge Posada (1,135)
RF – Bobby Abreu (352), Gary Sheffield (286), Paul O’Neill (266)
CF – Bernie Williams (755), Melky Cabrera (330), Johnny Damon (207)
LF – Hideki Matsui (547), Johnny Damon (234)
DH – Jason Giambi (372), Hideki Matsui (250)

Top 5 Pitchers by Games Started:

Mike Mussina (248)
Andy Pettitte (217)
Roger Clemens (144)
Chien-Ming Wang (104)
Orlando Hernandez (82)

Closer: Mariano Rivera (589 games finished)

Top 5 Relievers by Appearances:

Mike Stanton (252)
Scott Proctor (190)
Kyle Farnsworth (181)
Tom Gordon (159)
Brian Bruney (153)

Top Batting Seasons by Position (per VORP):

1B – Jason Giambi, 2002: 79.4
2B – Alfonso Soriano, 2002: 68.5
SS – Derek Jeter, 2006: 78.9
3B – Alex Rodriguez, 2007: 93.7
C – Jorge Posada, 2007: 71.2
RF – Gary Sheffield, 2004: 52.7
CF – Bernie Williams, 2002: 66.3
LF – Hideki Matsui, 2004: 46.0
DH – Jason Giambi, 2006: 46.1

Top 10 Batting Seasons by VORP:

1. Alex Rodriguez, 2007: 93.7
2. Alex Rodriguez, 2005: 91.4
3. Jason Giambi, 2002: 79.4
4. Derek Jeter, 2006: 78.9
5. Derek Jeter, 2000: 76.7
6. Derek Jeter, 2009: 72.8
7. Jorge Posada, 2007: 71.2
8. Alfonso Soriano, 2002: 68.5
9. Bernie Williams, 2002: 66.3
10. Derek Jeter, 2001: 65.0

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I always thought Javier Vazquez got a raw deal in his one season as a Yankee. When he was traded, I wrote on my old blog that “the Yankees were giving up on a 29-year-old pitcher who had pitched like an ace for four and a half seasons because of a mere three months of poor pitching.” That his results with the Diamondbacks and the White Sox the next two seasons were underwhelming soothed my ire, but I still viewed him as a missed opportunity right up until the Yankees reacquired him from the Braves yesterday.

To be fair, Vazquez isn’t an ace, which was part of the problem in 2004. In his final four season with the Expos, Vazquez posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 3.91 K/BB, numbers that, coming from a 26-year-old pitcher, looked like the early work of a developing ace, which is exactly what Vazquez was acquired to be, arriving in the Bronx in the wake of the departures of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells. In the first half of the 2004 season, Vazquez came close, going 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 2.97 K/BB, enough for him to make his first All-Star Team.

Then Vazquez’s shoulder began to ache (though he wouldn’t admit it until years later), and his season went off the rails. In the second half, he posted a 6.92 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and lost another strikeout per nine off his K rate while giving up 14 home runs in as many starts, or 1.6 HR/9, enough to earn him the derogatory nickname “Home Run Javy.” Things didn’t get better in his ALDS start against the Twins as he put the Yankees in a 5-1 hole that they nonetheless climbed out of thanks to Ruben Sierra’s game-tying homer in the eighth and Alex Rodriguez’s self-made run in the 11th inning. At that point, Joe Torre, who had put Vazquez on the All-Star team just three months earlier, pulled him from the ALCS rotation. Vazquez pitched in relief of Kevin Brown twice in that series, both times without much success. In the latter instance, he was brought into Game Seven with the bases loaded and gave up a first-pitch grand slam to Johnny Damon that drove the final nail in the 2004 Yankees’ coffin.

Leading up the trading deadline that season, the big rumor was that the Yankees were going to trade for Randy Johnson, but the Diamondbacks wanted Vazquez and the Yankees refused. After that brutal second half, the Yankees softened on their stance. In what might have been the last big player transaction motivated by George Steinbrenner, Vazquez was traded to Arizona with lefty Brad Halsey and catching prospect Dioner Navarro for Johnson.

The irony was that, over the next two seasons, Johnson and Vazquez were nearly identical in terms of results. Dig:

Johnson: 100 ERA+, 8.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 430 2/3 IP
Vazquez: 99 ERA+, 8.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 418 1/3 IP

Neither was an ace. Both maintained their good stuff, but a showed propensity to give up the long ball and a frustrating inconsistency. Vazquez spent the second of those two seasons as a member of the White Sox, having been obtained by the defending World Champions for past and future Yankee pitchers Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino (whom the Yankees acquired when they dealt Johnson back to the desert), and center field prospect Chris Young.

Vazquez shaved a run off his ERA in his second season in Chicago without a meaningful change in his overall performance, then gave most of that back in his third and final season on the South Side, after which he was dealt to the Braves with LOOGY Boone Logan for a quartet of prospects led by slugging catcher Tyler Flowers. The return to the weaker, non-DH league worked expected wonders for Vazquez as he posted career bests in ERA, WHIP, and his strikeout, homer, walk, and hit rates, garnering his first-ever Cy Young votes (he finished fourth).

Despite the variations in his results, Vazquez has actually proven to be one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last decade. Aside from his lone Yankee season, when his struggles led to early exits leaving him at just 198 innings pitched for the year, Vazquez has thrown more than 200 innings every other year this decade and started 32 or more games in each of the last ten seasons, a streak unmatched in the majors. In those ten seasons, he has only twice had a K/9 below 8.0 (2004 again being one of the two exceptions) and has never walked as many as three men per nine innings over the course of a full season. Over those ten seasons, he has posted a 3.98 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 1.22 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.79 K/BB, and a fairly pedestrian 1.1 HR/9. Brought back to the Bronx not as a potential ace, but as an overqualified mid-rotation innings eater, he has a much greater chance of success, both because of the lowered expectations, and because of his additional five years of experience, maturity, and conditioning.

In essence, Vazquez is A.J. Burnett without the injury history or the excessive contract (Javy’s actually entering the final year of an extension he signed with the White Sox that pays him $11.5 million for 2010). Burnett trumps Vazquez in that he’s spent several years in the AL East and is more of a groundball pitcher, but again, Vazquez isn’t being asked to replace Burnett as the number-two. He’s merely being asked to give the Yankees quality starts from the third or fourth spot in the rotation, a task of which he should be perfectly capable.

Now the question is, did the Yankees give up too much for one year of an above-average innings eater with a fly-ball tendency that could be exposed in the new Yankee Stadium? Maybe, but probably not. The players being sent to Atlanta for Vazquez are Melky Cabrera, lefty reliever Mike Dunn, and teenage pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino.

Dunn was a fungible bullpen arm, ostensibly replaced by Boone Logan, who was again acquired with Vazquez. Not that Logan is any good. He’s basically a left-handed Kyle Farnsworth, but minus the effective slider and all those pesky strikeouts. Logan has a mid-90s fastball that’s straight and thus very hittable, a curve he rarely uses, and an unimpressive slider. The less we see of Logan in 2010 and beyond the better this trade will look. Fortunately, Logan still has an option remaining and can be stashed at Scranton. As for Dunn, he was nothing special. Besides, when was the last time the Yankees were burned by trading a theoretically promising relief pitcher, particularly one in his mid-20s with alarming minor league walk rates?

The key to the trade will be the future path of Vizcaino, who was just rated as the Yankees’ top pitching prospect by my man Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s Goldstein’s scouting report:

Vizcaino’s combination of stuff and refinement is rarely found in a teenager. His clean arm action leads to effortless 92-94 mph fastballs that get up to 97 when he reaches back for a bit more, while his smooth mechanics allow him to harness his pitches and pound the strike zone. His power curveball already grades out as big-league average with the projection of becoming a true wipeout offering. . . . Vizcaino’s ceiling tops that of any pitcher in the system, by a significant margin. It will take time, but the skills are there for him to become an All-Star starter.

The trick is that Vizcaino won’t turn 20 until next November and has yet to pitch in a full-season league. I’m not saying he’s not going to fulfill his potential, but he’s so far away that he’s more of a dream than a reality right now. The odds seem just as good that the Yankees traded him at the peak of his value than that he will turn into the pitcher he’s projected to be. Still, there’s a legitimate risk that the Yankees just gave up a young home grown ace for a year of Javy Vazquez.

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Twitter is all, um, atwitter with word that the Yankees are on the verge of trading for a Mystery Pitcher. We know it’s not Aaron Harang, believe it’s not Carlos Zambrano, and the Daily News‘ Mark Fiensand says “it’s not a salary dump.” So, who is it, and what are they giving up to get him?

Mere days after Hideki Matsui agreed to join the Angels on a one-year contract worth $6 million, the Yankees have come to terms with Nick Johnson on a one-year deal worth a reported $5.75 million plus incentives to replace Matsui as their designated hitter. The decision to sign Johnson, so it seems to me, was less one the Yankees had made entering the offseason and more one that was made as a result of other decisions made by and about departing free agents Matsui and Johnny Damon.

Though many believe Matsui signed with the Angels because Halos manager Mike Scioscia promised him the opportunity to play left field once or twice a week (though, actually, Scioscia only promised him an opportunity in Spring Training to prove he could still play the field, which he likely can’t), and The Daily News‘ Mark Fiensand reported late last night that the Yankees opted not to resign Matsui primarily because of the state of his knees, I have another theory.

Based on a piece by Matsui’s agent Arn Tellem that appeared on the Huffington Post on Wednesday, I believe Matsui took the Angels’ offer without giving the Yankees a chance to match or beat it because he was afraid the Yankees, who had been focusing on negotiating with Johnny Damon, might either not make an offer (true if you believe Fiensand’s unnamed source), or might take enough time doing so that the Angels would rescind their offer. Here are the key passages from Tellem:

Hideki’s overriding concerns have always been winning and playing for a quality organization. Over his 17 seasons in pro ball, his only two teams have been the Yankees and the Yomiuri Giants. Each is the premier franchise in its respective league. Beyond the Yanks, his preferences were the Angels and the Boston Red Sox, two dominating franchises with superb players, coaches and management. But with David Ortiz entrenched as Boston’s everyday designated hitter, the Red Sox were never a real option.

[snip]

Hideki chose to accept Angel’s offer rather than wait for Yankees to decide whether they wanted to bring him back. Failure to act quickly might have caused L.A. to withdraw its offer and forced Hideki to sign with a weaker team, thus forfeiting a shot at another World Series. Conflicted, Hideki stayed up all Sunday night mulling his final move in this limited game of musical free-agent chairs. He didn’t want to be left standing.

Now, I realize that almost everything an agent says in public is spin, but I see no reason for Tellem to basically admit to being the first to blink in a game of contract chicken other than having actually done so.

The catch here is that, while the Yankees might have preferred to bring back Johnny Damon as their designated hitter (he’s clearly no longer qualified to play the field, either), Damon has been firm in his desire for a contract that comfortably exceeds Bobby Abreu’s two-year, $19 million re-up with the Angels in both years and annual salary. The Yankees have wisely balked at Damon’s demands, which suddenly left them searching for option C.

Enter Nick Johnson, the once and future Yankee. As an underpowered on-base machine, Johnson is a good fit as a replacement for Damon in the number-two hole in the Yankee lineup, and as an oft-injured, defensively challenged first baseman who hit just eight homers last year in 574 plate appearances, he was willing to take a one-year deal with a base salary even lower than Matsui’s.

That’s all well and good, but there are a lot of reasons to be underwhelmed if not outright dissatisfied with the Johnson signing. First and foremost among them is his fragility. Yes, Johnson’s on-base percentage of .426 was surpassed only by MVPs Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols among qualifying batters in 2009, but it’s getting into the batters’ box in the first place that has been the challenge for Johnson. The 133 games he played in this past season were the second most of his major league career and he played just 38 games over the previous two seasons combined.

Here’s a quick look at Johnson’s injury history:

• 1998: separated shoulder (out six weeks)
• 2000: unknown left hand/wrist injury (missed entire season)
• 2002: bone bruse in left wrist (missed three weeks)
• 2003: fractured right hand (missed two months)
• 2004: back (missed first two months); broken cheekbone (missed last six weeks)
• 2005: bone bruse in right heel (missed a month)
• 2006-7: broken right femur (suffered late September ’06, it wiped out his entire ’07 season)
• 2008: torn ligaments and tendons in wrist (ended season in mid-May)
• 2009: strained right hamstring (missed two weeks)

Johnson has had his share of fluke injuries, chief among them the foul ball that bounced back up and broke his cheekbone in 2004 and the broken leg he suffered in a collision with right fielder Austin Kearns in 2006, but the frequency and severity of his injuries is no fluke. Johnson is truly fragile and when he breaks he takes longer to heal than most players (to cite two recent examples, he was expected to return from his soft-tissue injury in 2008, but didn’t, and that broken leg, which kept him out of action for more than a calendar year, also took far longer to heal properly than was anticipated).

So, yes, Johnson’s on-base skills (.402 career OBP) would look mighty fine in the two hole, helping to set the table for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, but there’s a good chance the Yankees will need someone else to fill that spot for a significant portion of the coming season, and if that person is Curtis Granderson (who would otherwise likely hit fifth behind Rodriguez), they’ll need someone else to take Granderson’s spot lower in the order.

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Okay, first thing’s first: Curtis Granderson is a Yankee, so who the hell is Curtis Granderson?

Granderson grew up in the suburbs south of Chicago and attended the University of Illinois in the Windy City before being drafted by the Tigers in the third-round of the 2002 amateur draft. A slender center fielder with a nice power/speed combo who bats left and throws right, he moved steadily up the Tigers’ ladder. After a cup of coffee in September 2004 at age 23, he returned to the majors in July 2005 and took over Detroit’s center field job for good that September. In his first full season, Granderson led the American League in strikeouts with 174, but his outstanding defense in center field and average bat against righties helped the Tigers topple the Yankees in the ALDS and claim Detroit’s first pennant since 1984. In his sophomore season, Granderson cut down on his Ks, added 42 points of average, and led the league with 23 triples, turning in by far his best major league season with a .302/.361/.552 line, 26 steals in 27 attempts, and a 14.2 UZR in center, becoming the first American Leaguer to have twenty or more doubles, triples, homers, and steals all in the same season.

Granderson has been trying to live up to that season ever since. In 2008 he posted his best strikeout and walk rates at the plate, but his slugging percentage dipped below .500 and he stole just 12 bases and rated 8.9 runs below average in center according to UZR. This season, both his strikeout and walk rates regressed and he posted a career-low .249 batting average which dragged down his overall line to an underwhelming .249/.327/.453. His steals and defense rebounded, but the latter only got up to about average. Thus, despite making his first All-Star team and reaching 30 homers for the first time in 2009, he arrives in the Bronx off a very disappointing season, one in which he had a lower EqA and UZR than either Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner.

As you’re surely aware, Granderson’s big bugaboo is left-handed pitching. For his career, he’s hit just .210/.270/.344 (.208 GPA) against lefties, and in two of the last three seasons he’s been significantly worse than that against southpaws:

2006: .218/.277/.395 (.223)
2007: .160/.225/.269 (.169)
2008: .259/.310/.429 (.247)
2009: .183/.245/.239 (.170)

The good news is that Comerica Park, while it is a triples-hitter’s paradise, is hell on left-handed hitters, especially left-handed power hitters. It’s next to impossible to hit a triple in the new Yankee Stadium, but it is already well-known as a home-run hitting paradise for hitters of both hands, which means that Granderson is likely to get a significant boost from his home park, particularly as his triples already started to turn into home runs this year. Just a .261/.334/.451 career hitter at Comerica, Granderson has hit .284/.353/.516 on the road, and 20 of his 30 home runs in 2009 came outside of Detroit. As a Yankee, he could well reach 40 home runs in a season, a total which has been reached by a Yankee center fielder just five times, four by Mickey Mantle and one by Joe DiMaggio.

That’s quite exciting, but Granderson isn’t anywhere near a Hall of Fame player, and one wonders just how viable he’s going to be defensively in center field going forward. Once praised for his routes and jumps, both have become shaky over the past two seasons, as anyone who watched the All-Star Game or the Tigers’ one-game playoff against the Twins could tell you. Then again, the Yankees still have Cabrera and Gardner, the latter of whom had the best EqA and UZR (admittedly in a smaller sample) of the trio in 2009. The Bombers could easily slip Granderson’s pop into left field, let Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui low-ball one another for the DH job, and be both content and no less productive than they were in their just-completed championship season. To my eyes, where Granderson is going to play in 2010 is entirely up in the air right now.

As for the years beyond, Granderson is signed for a total of just $23.75 over the next three years and comes with a $13 million club option for 2013, his age-32 season. That’s a good deal for a player with his skill set, which mixes in some decent patience (138 unintentional walks over the last two years) with the power and speed, and one that ends at exactly the right time (Granderson’s top PECOTA comparable player prior to the 2009 season was Andy Van Slyke, whose last productive season came at age 32). If his new ballpark gives him the boost many expect, and Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long can finally solve his struggles with lefties, Granderson will become an absolute bargain and a true star. Of course, the latter is a huge “if.” The flip side of that is that he could prove to be a platoon left fielder as early as 2010, one who could be dangerously miscast as a number-two hitter despite having the high slugging and middling on-base percentage of a five or six-spot hitter.

So what did the Yankees give up to get him? The three-team deal that brought Granderson to the Bronx breaks down this way for the three teams involved:

• The Yankees get Curtis Granderson for Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke
• Tigers get Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson
• Diamondbacks get Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth

Jackson and Kennedy were two of the Yankees’ top prospects. Phil Coke was a key member of the 2009 bullpen. Coke was expendable because of the strong late-season comeback of lefty set-up man Damaso Marte, who is signed through 2011 with a club option for 2012, and because of the emergence of rookie lefty Michael Dunn, who was initially part of this trade but salvaged by the Yankees. Marte and Dunn have their issues (Marte will be 35 in February and was on the DL with shoulder trouble for most of 2009, Dunn is an unproven rookie with alarming walk rates above A-ball), but Coke had his own, specifically his gopheritis (1.5 HR/9IP). The Yankees made something out of nothing with Coke, who was converted from starting at age 26 late last year, and they’ve cashed him in before he had a chance to go back to being nothing.

Austin Jackson was the Yankees’ most advanced hitting prospect, but given the speed with which Jesus Montero has progressed, was no longer their top hitting prospect. A center fielder who projected as very much of a Granderson-like player (20 homers, 20 steals, but not a middle-of-the-order hitter, solid but not spectacular defense), Jackson was supposed to spend 2009 getting ready to take over the major league job in 2010, but despite earning rave reviews from scouts, his Triple-A performance left a lot to be desired as he hit a heavily average-dependent .300/.354/.405 with just four homers and 123 strikeouts. In Jackson’s favor is the fact that he’ll be able to repeat Triple-A at the still-tender age of 23 in 2010 and that he was a late convert to baseball as the Yankees’ money was really all that kept him from going to college to play basketball. However, in Granderson the Yankees get one of the better-case scenario versions of Jackson’s future now, and for up to four years. There’s an outside chance that Jackson could prove to be a better player than Granderson, and the Tigers will own him for six years prior to free agency, but by giving up two years and a lot of uncertainty, the Yankees get that player in their lineup immediately, using him to reinforce a world championship squad that had a big hole in its outfield.

Some of the uncertainty the Yankees are giving up comes in the form of Ian Kennedy. Drafted ahead of Joba Chamberlain in the first round of the Yankees’ extremely successful 2006 draft, Kennedy was the third amigo in the young starting-pitching trio of Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Phil Hughes which emerged in 2007. All three had their detours, but Chamberlain returned from his admittedly successful bullpen exile in the second half of 2008, and Hughes made a strong rebound from a pair of injury-plagued seasons by replacing Chamberlain in the bullpen this year. Both are now headed for the 2010 rotation behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and, most likely, Andy Pettitte. Chamberlain and Hughes are both top-notch starting pitching prospects with filthy stuff and ace potential. Kennedy, the oldest of the trio (he’ll be 25 a week from Saturday) is more of a mid-rotation arm, a three-pitch pitcher whose best pitch is his changeup. Kennedy frustrated the Yankees in 2008 by nibbling and refusing to throw his curveball, making him a very hittable two-pitch pitcher with some attitude problems. An aneurysm robbed him of most of the 2009 season, but he made a strong comeback at the end of the year, even making a courtesy appearance with the big club in September, a show of renewed faith on the part of the team. Organizationally, Kennedy is replaced by another 2006 draftee, six-foot-six righty Zach McAllister, a third-round pick who thrived after making the leap to Double-A last year and just turned 22 yesterday. If McAllister continues his progress at Triple-A in 2010, the Yankees will never know Kennedy is gone.

So the Yankees gave up two pitchers they could afford to lose, both 25 or older, one of whom has already reached his major league ceiling, and an unproven minor league version of Granderson. Jackson and Kennedy, the latter of whom has spectacular minor league numbers (19-6, 1.95 ERA, 273 Ks in 248 2/3 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 3.55 K/9), both hold the potential to give the Yankees and their fans some buyer’s remorse down the line, but it’s just as likely that neither develops into anything special. Then again, that’s also true of Granderson, who arrives in New York for his age-29 season not as an established star, but as a talented-but-flawed player hoping to fulfill his potential and in danger of becoming a part-timer.

It’s the biggest shopping day of the year, so here are a few of the things that have come into my possession in the past year which the baseball fan on your list might enjoy (or which you may want to ask for yourself):

Yankee Colors photographs by Marvin E. Newman, text by Al Silverman

This is an absolutely gorgeous book of full-color photography from the late ’50s and early ’60s including game action from the 1955-1958 and 1960-1965 World Series, shots from spring training, and looks inside the Yankee locker room. Newman’s photography, which also includes some black and white work, is alternately intimate and breathtaking, and some of the images of the old Stadium are particularly striking, a true revelation even after all of the retrospectives from the last year.

As They See ‘Em by Bruce Weber – I’ll admit I’ve only just started this one, inspired by a recent episode of the MLB Network’s “Studio 42 with Bob Costas” featuring Steve Palermo, Don Denkinger, and Bruce Froemming, but I can already tell it’s a keeper. A very rare look into the insular word of major league umpires, Weber explores an essential, but mysterious aspect of the game with a curious, conversational style.

The 2009 World Series film – This has only been on the market for a week, but it’s a must for any Yankee fan, particularly one that already own the outstanding collection of the World Series films of the Yankees’ championships from 1943 to 2000. If you don’t own the latter, put that on your list as well, or, for you big spenders, go whole-hog with this.

The 2009 World Series box set – This one’s not even out yet (street date: Dec. 15), but MLB does a great job with these sets, and this one is sure to follow suit. Again, for those who don’t already have it, this box of games from the 1996 to 2001 World Series is also a must-have for Yankee fans.

Baseball Prospectus 2010 – I schill, yes, but this book, a valuable guide to the 2010 season, contains three team chapters written by me, three more written by “Bronx Banter Breakdown” regular Jay Jaffe, and several more written by friend-of-the-Banter and co-editor Steven Goldman, not to mention the other talented BP regulars who are contributing. It won’t publish until February, but if you pre-order your copy now, you’ll get it in time for your fantasy draft, or in time to sort through the subs in spring training.

And having schilled for myself, I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind you about friend-of-the-Banter Mark Lamster’s Master of Shadows, which Alex wrote about last month.

As part of SI.com’s big Hot Stove kick-off package, I’ve broken down the offseason outlook for all 30 teams, identifying the big holes and targets for each team as well as listing their pending free agents and minor leaguers on the verge of cracking the big league roster. For example, here’s my take on the Yankees:

New York Yankees

PENDING FREE AGENTS: LF Johnny Damon, DH Hideki Matsui, SP Andy Pettitte, OF/1B Xavier Nady, 4C Eric Hinske, UT Jerry Hairston Jr., C Jose Molina.

PLAYERS WITH OPTIONS: None.

PROSPECTS ON THE VERGE: RP Mark Melancon, SP Ian Kennedy, CF Austin Jackson, SP Zach McAllister, C Jesus Montero.

BUILDING FOR: Their 28th world championship.

BIGGEST HOLES: Left field, designated hitter, the back of the rotation.

TARGETS: LFs Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, DHs Matsui and Damon; Pettitte.

BREAKDOWN: The Yankees’ focus this offseason will be on how — and whether or not — to replace World Series heroes Damon and Matsui. They’ll certainly be in the mix for Holliday and Bay, but after their spending spree last winter, could back off on long-term deals given that those two are just five and four years younger than the incumbents, respectively. Bobby Abreu‘s signing set the market for defensively-challenged, soon-to-be 36-year-olds who can still get it done at the plate at two years, $9 million per, though Damon and Matsui’s increasing fragility may bring them in for less. Consensus is that the Yankees will only re-sign one of the two. As for the rotation, another one-year deal for Pettitte seems like a given, and one can’t rule out a run at John Lackey, but the Yankees have shown commitment to their home-grown pitching prospects, which likely means Phil Hughes will return to starting chained by an innings limit while Joba Chamberlain will finally be fully unleashed. Expect the Yankees to also keep arbitration-eligible Chad Gaudin, who greatly improved his slider under pitching coach Dave Eiland, as insurance on those two, but to non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, who is coming off shoulder surgery that could have him rehabbing past Opening Day. As for the remaining free agents, Francisco Cervelli is ready to replace Molina. Hinske and Hairston would be worth keeping on the bench. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Nady is an afterthought and should be headed elsewhere.

The 30 capsules are broken into six articles, one for each division. Here are the links:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

Crank it up!

In a way it was classic A.J. Burnett. Just when I was ready to make my peace with his presence on the Yankees and accept him as a key contributor to a championship club, he took the mound in the potential World Series clincher and managed just six outs before getting the hook.

Burnett’s stinker was especially hard to take as Cliff Lee, whom most expected to shut down the Yankees again in Monday night’s Game Five like he did in Game One, was vulnerable. The Yankees managed just an unearned run in the ninth against Lee in Game One, but last night they jumped on the board in the top of the first on a Johnny Damon single and an Alex Rodriguez double. That lead was gone in the blink of an eye, however, as Jimmy Rollins greeted Burnett with a single back up through the middle, Shane Victorino got hit on the right hand attempting to bunt Rollins up, and Chase Utley crushed a first-pitch fastball for a three-run homer that put the Phillies up 3-1 before Burnett had recorded an out.

Burnett stranded a subsequent walk to Ryan Howard and worked around a two-out walk to Rollins in the second, but when he started the third with two more walks, both of which came around to score on singles by Jayson Werth and Raul Ibañez, Joe Girardi had seen enough. The first four batters reached against Burnett in two of his three innings of work and he had walked four and given up five runs on four hits without getting an out in the third, using up 53 pitches in the process.

With runners on the corners and none out, Girardi turned to David Robertson, who allowed the man on third to score on a fielder’s choice, but avoided an escalation of the inning, then pitched a perfect fourth. The Yankees got a run back in the fifth when Eric Hinske walked for Robertson, went to third on a Derek Jeter single, and scored on a Damon groundout. Alfredo Aceves then pitched in two scoreless innings, but after Jerry Hairston Jr. flied out for Aceves, Phil Coke was unable to answer in kind.

Brought in to face Utley, Howard, and, if necessary, Ibañez, Coke was greeted by yet another solo homer by Utley, his fifth dinger of this World Series, tying Reggie Jackson’s single-Series mark set in 1977. Two outs later, Ibañez also went deep off Coke, inflating the Philadelphia lead to 8-2.

Those two runs would prove to be the difference in the game as the Yankees immediately answered back. Damon led off the top of the eighth with an infield single which was followed by doubles by Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, the latter of which plated both Damon and Teixeira and bounced Lee. With Chan Ho Park on in relief, Rodriguez moved to third on a groundout and scored on a shallow sac fly to center by Robinson Cano.

That cut the Phillies’ lead to three runs at 8-5 and, after a scoreless frame by Phil Hughes, the Yanks got right back at it. Having watched Brad Lidge blow the game the night before, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel chose Ryan Madson for the ninth inning this time and only narrowly avoided a similar result.

Madson was greeted by a double by Jorge Posada and a single by pinch-hitter Hideki Matsui. Facing the potential tying run, Madson fell behind Derek Jeter 2-0 before getting the Captain to ground into a sadly predictable double play (I say that only because I, sadly, predicted it). Posada scored on the DP, however, and Damon followed with a single that brought Mark Teixeira to the plate as the tying run.

With the Citizens Bank Park crowd roaring and waving towels like 46,178 Phil McConkeys, Madson threw Teixeira a first-pitch fastball on the outside corner for strike one followed by a trio of changeups that dove out of the zone. Teixeira swung over the first as Damon took second, took the second for ball one, then swung over the third for strike three, giving the Phillies an 8-6 win and sending the Series back to the Bronx for Game Six.

Neither of the last two games unfolded exactly as expected, but the results were the same. When the Series moved to Philadelphia tied 1-1, I said the Yankees would win behind Pettitte and Sabathia, lose to Lee, and head home up 3-2, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. I’m sure any fan, as well as the Yankees themselves, would have signed up for that three games ago, as the Yankees now have two chances two win the Series at home and a significant pitching advantage in a potential Game Seven with CC Sabathia going against an as-yet-unnamed Philly starter that could be the struggling Cole Hamels or the largely unused J.A. Happ.

Though he wasn’t all that impressive in this game, the Yankees can sleep well knowing they won’t be facing Lee again, and that they’ve made noise against both of the Phillies’ closer options. Losing a game that could have clinched a world championship isn’t fun, but the Yankees are in great position to win either of the final two games of this Series. As Teixeira said after the game, the Yankees were in a similar position in the ALCS, losing a potential clincher in Game Five. They then went home and wrapped up the series in Game Six behind Andy Pettitte. I won’t be surprised if they do it again.

If the first two games of this World Series could have gone either way, the pitching matchups in Games Three and Four clearly favored the Yankees and, though they came close, it was the Phillies’ inability to break serve that has them one win away from failing in their bid to repeat as world champions.

Tonight’s pitching matchup calls for a Phillies victory that would send the Series back up the Turnpike with the Yankees leading 3-2. The Phillies haven’t lost a game started by Cliff Lee this postseason as Lee has been flat-out dominant. In four starts, he has tossed two complete games and twice struck out ten men without walking a batter, and doing both of those things in Game One of this World Series against the Yankees. In his four starts combined, Lee has walked just three, given up no home runs, and allowed just two earned runs, giving him a 0.54 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 10.0 K/BB. Opponents are hitting just .171/.192/.214 against Lee this postseason. His worst start saw him give up three runs, two of them unearned in 7 1/3 innings against the Rockies in Game Four of the NLDS. However good you think Cliff Lee has been, he’s been better.

That’s why the Phillies’ decision not to try to get three starts out of Lee drastically reduced their chances of repeating. Sure, Lee had never pitched on three-days’ rest before, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or that he wouldn’t succeed if he tried. One could argue that the Phils were better off getting two guaranteed wins from a fully-rested Lee than risking the second win by trying to milk a third out of him, but that only works if a) the Phillies can somehow win two other games (with a maximum of three games left in the series they’ve still won only Lee’s one start) and b) if they win tonight.

As I said, tonight’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean A.J. Burnett is chopped liver. Despite all of my complaints about his contract and his inconsistency (both of which remain problematic, the contract especially), Burnett has answered the bell every time the Yankees have rung it. He took his turn every five days during the regular season, surpassing 30 starts for just the third time in his career, and, save for a bad first inning in Game Five against the Angels and his usual assortment of walks, hit batters, and wild pitches (resulting in 18 free bases in 25 1/3 innings), has been nails in the postseason. Burnett’s Game Two start against the Phillies would have bested Lee’s Game Four outing against the Rockies, so there’s more than momentum to cling to for those hoping the Yankees will wrap things up tonight.

The old baseball saying is that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but sometimes in postseason series a heartbreaking loss that puts a team one game away from elimination really does carry over to the next game. Think of the Giants in the 2002 Series or the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS (both walking-dead Game Sevens by Dusty Baker managed teams), the Cardinals in the 1985 World Series after Don Denkinger’s call opened the door to their collapse in Game Six, or the Angels in the 1986 ALCS after Dave Henderson’s Game Six home run ripped the pennant out of their hands. The Red Sox got a lead in Game Seven of the 1986 World Series, but I doubt even they believed they’d hold it after their crushing loss in Game Six.

The Phillies weren’t on the verge of the championship last night, they weren’t even really on the verge of tying up the series (they never had a lead in the game), but Pedro Feliz’s game-tying home run and Brad Lidge’s return to perfection in the first two rounds of the postseason made them believe they had the game in hand with the score tied 4-4 and two outs in the top of the ninth. The crowd even thought they had the final out in that inning when Johnny Damon foul tipped a would-be strike three from Lidge early in his game-changing at-bat. The sequence of events that followed (Damon’s single and steal of second and third on a single pitch against the shift, Alex Rodriguez’s ringing go-ahead double, and Jorge Posada’s two-RBI single, which gave Mariano Rivera some unneeded breathing room) was legitimately heartbreaking for a Phillies team that was flush with excitement after tying up the game in the previous half inning. They’d be right to wonder if they couldn’t complete that comeback what hope have they of coming back in the Series.

At the risk of rousing the ghosts of 2004, I’d say none. The only question is whether or not this series goes back to the Bronx, like the ALCS did, or Burnett and company get it done tonight despite the presence of Lee.

Major League Baseball has yet to approve the Yankees’ request to replace the injured Melky Cabrera, who tore his hamstring running to first last night, but Brett Gardner would be in center field either way and is tonight. With Jose Molina catching Burnett yet again, that gives the Yankees a bottom five of Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, and Burnett. That against Cliff Lee. Molina hits lefties better than righties (.259/.306/.384 career) and Gardner is at least Melky’s equal (beyond the gains in speed and defense, he posted a .272 EqA this year to Melky’s .267). Still looking at that lineup, one suspects we’ll get a sixth game out of this Series after all.

Given the starters’ previous performances this postseason, the pitching matchup in Saturday night’s Game Three of the World Series, which pit Andy Pettitte against Cole Hamels, heavily favored the Yankees. That advantage played out as the Yankees took a 2-1 lead in the series behind a solid performance by Pettitte that included an unexpected game-tying single.

By his own admission, Pettitte was a bit off his game when the game began after an hour-twenty-minute rain delay. That manifested itself most in the second inning, when he had trouble finding the strike zone. Pettitte started the inning by falling behind Jayson Werth 3-0. Werth then reached out and yanked a 3-1 curve that was low and away into the seats in left to open the scoring. After Pettitte struck out Raul Ibañez, Pedro Feliz doubled into the right-field gap on a 1-0 pitch and, with the pitcher on deck, Pettitte walked Carlos Ruiz on five pitches.

Cole Hamels followed with a bunt to the third base side of the mound. Pettitte ran over to field it, but hesitated thinking Jorge Posada was going to make the play coming out from behind home. Posada similarly hesitated seeing Pettitte beat him to the ball and those two brief pauses allowed Hamels to reach safely, loading the bases with out a play. Pettitte then walked Jimmy Rollins on five pitches, forcing in a run, and after Shane Victorino inexplicably swung at two pitches out of the zone, gave up a sac fly to Victorino that made it 3-0 Phillies.

Pettitte rallied to strike out Chase Utley to end the second, then didn’t allow another hit (or walk) until the sixth inning, when Werth again led off with a solo homer, this one an absolute bomb off the facing of the second deck in left. By then, however, the game situation was very different.

When Mark Teixeira walked with one out in the fourth, he was just the second Yankee baserunner of the game (Alex Rodriguez was hit by a pitch in the second), but Rodriguez followed with an apparent double off the top of the wall in the right-field corner for the first Yankee hit. Upon further review, however, the ball hit into the lens of a television camera just above the fence. The right field umpire admitted that the ball made an odd sound when it hit, so the officials went to the video replay for the first time in World Series history and came back, almost instantaneously, with the correct call, giving Rodriguez a home run and bringing the Yankees within 3-2. (Coincidentally, Rodriguez also hit the first reviewed home run in regular season history.)

An inning later, Nick Swisher, whose struggles this postseason led to his being benched in favor of Jerry Hairston Jr. in Game Two, led off with a double. With the pitchers’ spot on deck, Hamels struck out Melky Cabrera. Had Cabrera walked, Andy Pettitte likely would have bunted the runners up, but with one out, he was swinging away and flipped a first-pitch curveball by Hamels into shallow left center for a game-tying RBI single. It was the first World Series RBI by a Yankee pitcher since Jim Bouton drove in a run in the 1964 classic.

Derek Jeter followed Pettitte with another first pitch single that fell in front of a sliding Victorino in center, then nearly ran up Pettitte’s back as both were plated by a double by Damon, which gave the Yankees a 5-3 lead. An inning later, with lefty J.A. Happ on in relief of Hamels, Swisher delivered again with a solo homer to left. That put the Yankees up 6-3 when Werth connected for his second homer. The Yankees then got that run back in the top of the seventh when Damon drew a one-out walk, stole second (though replays showed he was out), and scored on a single by Posada.

With Pettitte at 104 pitches having battled through a night in which he claimed not to be able to control his pitches or throw his curveball for strikes, yet still struck out seven Phillies, including Chase Utley and Ryan Howard twice each, Joe Girardi turned to his bullpen for the seventh. The biggest concern for the Yankees heading into the game was how the set-up relievers would perform in between Pettitte, who has maxed out at 6 1/3 innings this postseason, and Mariano Rivera, who was unlikely to go more than an inning after throwing 39 pitches on Thursday night.

No worries. Joba Chamberlain needed just nine pitches to set the top three men in the Phillies lineup down in order in the seventh. After Hideki Matsui increased the Yankee lead to 8-4 with a pinch-hit home run in the top of the eighth, Damaso Marte then came on and struck out not just Howard, but also Werth, then got Raul Ibañez to line out to third for another perfect inning of relief. A crack appeared in the ninth, when Phil Hughes gave up a one-out solo homer to Carlos Ruiz, setting the final score at 8-5, but with that Girardi brought in Rivera, who got the last two outs on five pitches.

The Yankees now have a 2-1 lead in the Series, making them the first team to hold a  series lead on the Phillies since the Rockies in 2007, and CC Sabathia going up against Joe Blanton in Game Four. A win behind Sabathia would put the Yankees one win away from their first world championship since 2000. That was the plan all along, and the Yankees are doing a hell of a job of sticking to it.

The first two games of this World Series could have gone either way and did. CC Sabathia allowed just two runs in seven innings in Game One, but Cliff Lee allowed just one unearned run in nine as the Phillies cruised to a 1-0 lead. Pedro Martinez was sharp in Game Two, striking out eight in six innings while allowing just three runs, but A.J. Burnett was better, striking out nine and allowing just one run in seven, setting up a six-out save by Mariano Rivera which tied the series at 1-1.

The conventional wisdom is that when the road team splits the first two games of a best-of-seven series, they’ve succeeded in making it a best-of-five series in which they have the majority of the home games. That’s true, to a point, but it overlooks the sizeable advantages the Yankees retain in this series. To begin with, they still have home field advantage for what are likely to be the two most important games of the Series, Games Six and Seven, both of which will find at least one team a win away from the championship. The Yankees also have the edge in at least three of the remaining pitching matchups, including tonight’s and tomorrow’s.

Yesterday, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel announced that Joe Blanton, not Cliff Lee, would start Sunday’s Game Four. Lee will only have had three-days’ rest heading into Sunday, and he’s never started on short rest in his major league career. He also threw 122 pitches in his Game One shutout. Thus, Blanton, which gives the Yankees a sizeable advantage as Joe Girardi announced today that he will indeed start CC Sabathia on short rest in Game Four. Pitching on three-days’ rest in Game Four of the ALCS, Sabathia held the Angels to one run (on a solo homer) in eight innings. Sabathia also dominated in three consecutive short-rest starts for the Brewers as the 2008 season drew to a close (0.83 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 21 K, 4 BB, 0 HR in 21 2/3 IP). Until he was bested by Lee in Game One, the Yankees had won all three of Sabathia’s starts this postseason, and with Blanton opposing him in Game Four, the Yankees have to be heavily favored in that game as well.

Entering the Series, when it seemed that Manuel would start Lee on short rest, tonight’s game looked like most favorable pitching matchup for the Yankees. Cole Hamels pitched the Phillies to the title last year, but this postseason he’s been just shy of awful, posting a 6.75 ERA while allowing six home runs in just 14 2/3 innings over three starts (that’s 3.7 HR/9). That bad run actually extends back through Hamels’ last three starts of the regular season, giving him a 6.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last six starts.

The Phillies have actually won two of Hamels three postseason starts, both against the Dodgers, but did so by scoring a combined 18 runs. That doesn’t seem likely to happen tonight as Andy Pettitte has been his usual reliable self. Pettitte has lasted 6 1/3 innings in all three of his starts this postseason, walked just one man in each, and only once allowed as many as three runs. In fact, Pettitte’s last six postseason starts dating back to the 2005 NLCS have been quality starts (2.15 ERA, 4.0 K/BB), and in his last 13 postseason starts, including all of the 2003 playoffs and World Series, he’s posted a 2.64 ERA and turned in 11 quality starts. In his one regular season start against the Phillies this year, Pettitte gave up four runs in seven innings, but three of those runs scored on a home run by John Mayberry Jr., who isn’t even on the Phillies’ World Series roster.

Hamels is starting at home, where he his ERA was nearly a run and a quarter lower than his road mark this year, but Pettitte was significantly better on the road and has allowed just one earned run in 12 career innings at Citizens Bank Park. This matchup clearly favors the Yankees, and it will be on the offense and the bullpen to cash in these next two games, especially with the dominant Lee starting on full rest in Game Five (likely against A.J. Burnett on short rest).

Judging by the starting pitching matchups alone, this Series should return to the Bronx with the Yankees leading 3-2 and should find Sabathia, pitching on short rest for the second time in a row, lined up to face Hamels in a Game Seven matchup that also heavily favors the Yankees.

The only catch is the weather. If any of these games is rained out (and there’s a 70 percent chance of rain tonight, though the teams believe they’re going to get the game in), it could wipe out the Yankees’ hopes of starting Sabathia twice more and could line up his then-only-remaining start with Lee’s on Monday, thus making CC a near non-factor rather than the expected difference maker. If that happens, it will make taking advantage of something like tonight’s Pettitte-Hamels pairing all the more crucial to the Yankees’ success in this series.

Nick Swisher returns to the Yankee lineup tonight. He’s never faced Hamels before. Hideki Matsui rides pine due to the lack of DH at the National League Park. Expect a pinch-hitting appearance from Matsui in the late innings, but don’t expect to see him in the field unless there’s a substitution crunch (the Yankees have Gardner, Hinske, and Hairston who can go out to the field before Matsui would have to), particularly on a wet field. The Phillies’ lineup is standard.

For seven innings of Wednesday night’s opening game of the 2009 World Series, the hotly anticipated matchup of left-handed aces and former Cleveland Indians teammates lived up to its billing, but in the end there was just Cliff Lee.

Lee, who shutout the Rockies in the first postseason start of his career in Game One of this year’s NLDS and entered the game having allowed just two earned runs in 24 1/3 innings this postseason, was simply dominant. On a cold, wet night in the Bronx, Lee was quick, sharp, almost robotic in his efficiency, and seemed utterly indifferent to significance of the game.

In his first two innings of work he allowed just a Jorge Posada single and struck out four. After allowing another hit in the third, a two-out double by Derek Jeter, he struck out Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada in order in the fourth. For both Teixeira and Rodriguez it was their second strikeout in as many at-bats against Lee.

The Yankees got the leadoff batter on in the fifth on a Hideki Matsui single, but he was promptly erased by an unusual double play on a sinking flare off the bat of Robinson Cano to Jimmy Rollins at shortstop. Rather than charge the ball to catch it chest-high, Rollins stayed back on the ball in an apparent attempt to snag the short hop and turn a conventional double play. After gloving the ball, Rollins did just that, stepping on second and firing to first, but Cano beat the throw. The trick was that Rollins actually caught the ball on the fly, thus his throw to first doubled off Matsui. It took the umpires a while to figure that out, but after huddling up they eventually got the call right.

Lee pitched around a Johnny Damon single in the seventh, then didn’t allow another baserunner until the ninth.

Meanwhile, CC Sabathia, after surviving a two-out bases-loaded jam in the first, nearly matched Lee, with two crucial exceptions. With two outs in the third, Chase Utley battled Sabathia for nine pitches. The last was a knee-high fastball that was supposed to be in, but drifted over the plate, allowing Utley to deposit it in the first few rows of the right-field box seats to give the Phillies an early 1-0 lead. The home run was a short-porch shot to be sure, but likely would have been out of the old Stadium as well.

Utley’s next at-bat came with one out in the sixth. Sabathia had retired every man he faced since Utley’s home run and got two quick called strikes on Utley, who then fouled off the third pitch. Sabathia’s fourth offering was a thigh-high fastball that was supposed to be inside, but drifted over the plate, allowing Utley to deposit it in the first few rows of the right-field bleachers, a no-doubter that gave the Phillies a 2-0 lead. Given Lee’s dominance and the fact that the Yankees were down to their last nine outs, that deficit felt much larger than it actually was.

As if to accentuate his command of the game, Lee got Johnny Damon to hit a badminton birdie back to the mound in the bottom of the sixth. Lee barely moved his feet to catch Damon’s floater. He simply stuck out his glove and made a casual, one-handed catch as if he was receiving a return throw from his catcher. The next inning, Jorge Posada hit a chopper to the first-base side of the mound. Rather than flip it to first base, Lee ran directly at Posada in a play reminiscent of the last out of the 2003 World Series, and rather than tag Posada on the chest or stomach with two hands, Lee gave the hot-headed Yankee catcher a roundhouse pat on the rear end to retire him. In the next frame, Robinson Cano led off with a hard hopper that Lee casually caught blindly behind his back. It was Cliff Lee’s night, the Yankees and the 50,207 fans in the stands were merely supporting players, and mild-mannered ones at that.

Other than Utley’s two homers, the Phillies managed just two hits against CC Sabathia, one of them a Ryan Howard double in the first inning, but they worked deep counts, drew three walks, and bounced the Yankee ace from the game after he threw 117 pitches in seven innings. That allowed the Phills to sink their teeth into the Yankees’ suddenly shaky middle relief corps.

Phil Hughes was the first lamb to the slaughter. He started the eighth by walking Jimmy Rollins on eight pitches and Shane Victorino on seven more before getting a quick hook. Damaso Marte came on and struck out Utley and got Howard to fly out, but David Robertson, in to face the righty Jason Werth, loaded the bases on a four-pitch walk, then gave up a two-run single to Raul Ibañez that doubled the Phillies’ lead. Brian Bruney, who hadn’t seen game action since the regular season, got two quick outs in the ninth, but Rollins reached on a slow roller that stopped short of Alex Rodriguez on the infield grass, and Victorino followed with an RBI single. Joe Girardi then turned to Phil Coke to face Utley and Howard. Coke fell behind Utley 3-1 before getting him to fly out, then Howard doubled into the right-field corner, plating Rollins to increase the lead to 6-0.

Those insurance runs were killers, particularly after Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon opened the ninth with singles off Lee that otherwise would have given the Yankees hope of yet another comeback. The shutout was lost when Rollins threw wild to first base trying to turn Mark Teixeira’s ensuing grounder into a double play, but Lee stopped the Yankees there by striking out Rodriguez and Posada on a total of eight pitches to give the Phillies a 6-1 win and an early 1-0 lead in the Series.

The Yankees and Phillies have more in common than just winning their respective league pennants. Both boast their league’s best offense (the first time the two top offenses have reached the World Series since the Red Sox and Cardinals met in 2004). Both are likely to try to get three starts out of a left-handed ace who won the Cy Young with the Cleveland Indians and has been dominant in three postseason starts this month. Both will have a lineup that includes three lefties when an opposing lefty is on the mound (both have two left-handers in their rotation). Both have seen their elite set-up men struggle in the playoffs to this point. Both play good defense and steal bases efficiently with speed not only at the top of the lineup, but from some of their big power guys as well. Both are home-run hitting teams that play in homer-friendly ball parks. Both have been led by a superstar cleanup hitter who has been white hot in this postseason. Both won the Eastern division and beat the Wild Card and Western Division champion to reach the World Series. Both have lost just two games all postseason. Both already have one championship this decade and are looking to tie the Red Sox with the most in the decade with another win.

The Yankees return to the World Series after a five-year break (which, amazingly, is their third longest pennant drought since the acquisition of Babe Ruth) as the favorites, but that seems disrespectful to the defending World Champions. The Phillies are the first team to win back-to-back pennants since the 2000 and 2001 Yankees, and the first championship team to defend their title in the World Series since that ’01 Yankee squad. When the Yankees last went to the World Series in 2003, many were of the mind that their knock-down, drag-out ALCS against the Red Sox was the real championship and that the ensuing World Series, which saw a battered Yankee team stumble to a six-game defeat, was an afterthought. That is not at all the case this year. While the ALCS was tightly contested six-game series against a hated rival, the Yankees were clearly a better team than the Angels going in. They are likely still a better team than the Phillies on paper, but the margin has closed to such a degree that the difference between the two teams is almost negligible.

Lineup:

Derek Jeter (.334/.406/.465, 18 HR, 30 SB @ 86%)
Jimmy Rollins (.250/.296/.423, 21 HR, 31 SB @ 79%)

Providing a nice set of bookends for the 2009 season, Jeter and Rollins began the year sharing the shortstop job for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and will now conclude it as opposing shortstops in the Fall Classic. Back in March, I thought Rollins was the obvious choice to start over Jeter in the WBC as the two had been comparable at the plate in 2008, and Rollins was clearly superior in the field. Then the regular season started and Rollins fell into an awful slump that lasted three months (.205/.250/.319 though July 1), while Jeter rebounded from what had been one of his worst offensive seasons in 2008 to have a near-MVP-quality season. What’s more, Jeter, working with new first base and infield coach Mick Kelleher, had perhaps his finest defensive season, while Rollins brought his struggles out to the field. As a result, Jeter trumped the 2007 NL MVP in every phase of the game in 2009.

Rollins made a nice comeback over the last three months, hitting .288/.334/.510 with 20 steals in 23 tries after July 1, but he’s looked more like the first-half Rollins thus far this postseason, hitting .244/.279/.317 with no walks or steals to Jeter’s .297/.435/.595.

Johnny Damon (.282/.365/.489, 24 HR, 12 SB @ 100%)
Shane Victorino (.292/.358/.445, 13 3B, 25 SB @ 76%)

Damon’s road numbers (.284/.349/.446) look a lot like Victorino’s overall line this year, while switch-hitter Victorino get’s a nice spike against lefties (.314/.385/.459). If this Series goes seven games, Damon will get four games at friendly Yankee Stadium (.279/.382/.533, 17 HR), while Victorino could make four starts against lefty pitching. Damon shook off his Division Series slump with a .300/.323/.533 line against the Angels in the ALCS, but Victorio, is a career .299/.370/.577 hitter in 26 postseason games and has been red-hot this October, hitting .361/.439/.722 with a trio of homers. Folding in the larger regular season sample, I’m going to call this one even.

Mark Teixeira (.292/.383/.565, 39 HR, 122 RBI)
Chase Utley (.282/.397/.508, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB @ 100%)

Add those 23 stolen bases in 23 attempts to Utley’s total bases and his slugging jumps to .548. And, yes, Teixeira can switch-hit with similar results from both sides, but lefty-hitting Utley hit .288/.417/.545 against lefty pitching this season. Teixeira has been slumping this postseason, but he does have three big hits (the bloop before Alex Rodriguez’s game-tying blast in Game Two of the ALDS, the game-winning home run in that contest, and his bases-loaded double in Game Five against the Angels), and was 4 for his last 9 in the ALCS, which means a big World Series breakout could be around the corner. Utley, meanwhile, has just one extra-base hit this postseason. Tex has the edge here, but it’s small enough to be meaningless in a short series.

Alex Rodriguez (.286/.402/.532, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB @ 88%)
Ryan Howard (.279/.360/.571, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 8 SB @ 89%)

These are the mashers. Both men have had their share of postseason struggles in the past, but both have put those concerns to bed this postseason. Howard has hit .355/.462/.742 with a hit and an RBI in every game until the clincher against the Dodgers. Rodriguez has hit .438/.548/.969 with five home runs and has had a hit in every game and an RBI in all but one. In nine games, Rodriguez has 12 RBIs to Howard’s 14 (the record for a single postseason in 19 held by David Ortiz ’05, Scott Spiezio ’02, and Sandy Alomar Jr. ’97, while the homer record is 8 by Carlos Beltran in ’04).

Howard, who has hit 45 or more home runs in each of the last four seasons, has more pure power, if that’s possible, but Rodriguez is the better overall hitter and player (though Howard is underrated in the field and on the bases because of his bulk). Most significantly, Howard is the one starter on either team who is really defanged by lefty pitching. He hit just .207/.298/.356 against southpaws this year with a strikeout roughly every three plate appearances. That tips the balance in this matchup decidedly in the Yankees’ favor.

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