Sorry for the late game-thread.

Rubber game on a sunny day. Let’s go Yanks.

Although it often seems otherwise, Mariano Rivera is not perfect. During his career, the future Hall of Famer has been tagged with 65 blown saves and 57 losses, so there are plenty of examples available to refute the notion of his infallibility. And yet, when he doesn’t come through, it still seems like a fluke. Such was the case on two occasions this past week.

Mariano Rivera’s Save Percentage, by Team

Note: NL entry includes three saves and one blown save against Brewers when they were part of the AL.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

On Sunday night, Rivera suffered his fifth blown save of the season against the Red Sox, the team against which he has by far the most. Considering Boston’s power-packed lineup, it’s easy to see how even the great Rivera might slip up, but what made Sunday’s blown save most frustrating was the chief antagonist: light-hitting Marco Scutaro.

Walk Off Home Runs Against Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

Then again, maybe Scutaro’s lead off double, which led to the blown save, shouldn’t have come as that much of a surprise? After all, the journeyman infielder owns one of only five walk off homeruns surrendered by Rivera. What’s more, Scutaro’s double on Sunday was his second against Rivera, giving him three extra base hits against the great closer in only 18 plate appearances.

Batters with at Least Three Extra Base Hits vs. Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

How significant is Scutaro’s relative success against Rivera? Over the course of his career, Rivera has faced 920 different batters, and of that total, only eight have recorded at least three extra base hits. For further perspective, 469 hitters, or 51%, failed to even record one hit, including teammate Dustin Pedroia, who has gone 0-10 in 13 plate appearances against Rivera. Finally, Scutaro’s .896 OPS against Rivera ranks 28th among the 156 hitters with at least 10 plate appearances versus the future Hall of Famer.

Most PAs Without a Hit vs. Mariano Rivera

Source: baseball-reference.com

After failing to close out a win in Fenway, Rivera’s next game ended in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels. This time, the culprit was Bobby Abreu and the damage was a rare home run, which broke a 4-4 tie. Since 1995, Rivera’s HR rate of 0.44 per nine innings is the lowest of any reliever with at least 275 innings, so when he falters because of the long ball, it’s even more startling. However, the gopher ball surrendered to Bobby Abreu was even more remarkable because the struggling DH entered the game with only four home runs. When you consider that Abreu had already hit his fifth earlier in the game, the chances of him going deep again, against Rivera no less, had to be slim, but when the Yankees’ closer gives it up, it often feels like a long shot coming through.

Lowest HR/9 Rates, Relievers Since 1995 (min. 275 IP)

Source: fangraphs.com

Since he first emerged as a dominant force in the 1995 ALDS against the Mariners, Mariano Rivera’s successes have far surpassed his failures, which, ironically, is why the latter seem to better define his greatness. When Rivera blows a game, it inspires shock. When he blows two-in-a-row, it induces panic…in everyone but Rivera himself. Perhaps that’s why Mariano has had only one stretch of three straight games with either a blown save or loss (August 1997)? So, let the Chicken Littles have their say. You can’t blame them for thinking the sky is falling. In fact, it’s a testament to the greatest closer of all time.

Every year for the past decade there is a period, a game or two, a few weeks, when Mariano Rivera struggles. During those times, the newspapers have articles about the decline and his career. But now, that kind of article has more resonance. Like this one from Tyler Kepner in the Times:

Rivera, who turns 42 in November, has 29 saves. Only one pitcher has had 30 saves at that age: Dennis Eckersley, for St. Louis in 1997. Eckersley played one more season, as a middle reliever with Boston. In the last inning of his career, in a playoff game against Cleveland, he served up a homer to Manny Ramirez that might still be going.

Nobody wants to see Rivera end like that. Or like the great Goose Gossage, bouncing to seven teams in his final seven seasons, picking up a stray save here or there. There is nobility in pitching as long as you can, in making summer last as long as possible. But it would not suit Rivera, a career Yankee who defines athletic grace.

“I don’t think he will hang around,” the Angels’ Torii Hunter said. “He loves the game, but every player wants to be the best. You don’t want to be last known as the guy who’s giving up two home runs in the World Series. He’s not even close to where he’s going to be out of the game, but I’m pretty sure a guy like that would love to go out on top.”

The final mystery in Mo’s career is how it will end. We hope for it to be special, for him to “go out on top,” though we know the reality will be messier than that.

[Painting by Stephen Holland]

By no means was Curtis Granderson responsible for last night’s loss. If you want to pass blame around, you can start with A.J. and Mariano and eventually towards the middle you’d probably come to Granderson. But I bet he felt bad nonetheless. His base-running gaffe ended the game and robbed the Majors’ second leading home run hitter a chance to win the game. Anytime I made the last out of a close game, it tore me up for days. I’ll never get over making the last out of my Little League Championship game when I was ten.

Thankfully, Granderson doesn’t react like a ten-year old. Whether he shrugged last night off as a confident professional (ala what Mo will do for his recent funk) or if he came to the park a little more determined tonight to make amends, he was excellent. His three-run home run in the first inning assured that the Yankees wouldn’t be baffled by the Angels rookie pitcher making his Major League debut. And his solo homer in the fifth tacked on necessary insurance as Ivan Nova ran into trouble in the seventh.

(For the record, Granderson told Kim Jones that he forgot about last night when he left the park, and he’ll forget about tonight when he leaves the park. A little of Mo in the guy after all.)

The rookie making his Major League debut was Garrett Richards. He was making the leap from AA all the way to Yankee Stadium. And he didn’t land well. He walked Gardner and Jeter ahead of Granderson’s first blast. Until Teixeira grounded out, his Major League career ERA was infinite – that must have been the longest two pitches of his life.

The Yankees hit Richards hard up and down the lineup. They could still be hitting in the fourth if it wasn’t for a wonderfully athletic play in right-center by Peter Bourjos and an atrocious call at first base on Brett Gardner. The catch was especially fun to watch. It had all the synchronicity of a fake volleyball spike, where one player leaps at the ball and intentionally swings and misses while the next hitter lines it up for the kill. But dynamic instead of rehearsed. Torii Hunter was trying his best to make a sensational diving grab and when he whiffed, Bourjos had to keep sight of the ball, avoid Hunter’s body and still make the lunging, running snag.

Even though Yankees fans joke about expecting to be baffled by a newcomer like this, really, we expect them to drill the rookies. That’s why we get so worked up when they lose to them. Watching them clobber Richards reminded me that this was one of the biggest nights of his life and I felt bad that it was such a flogging. Not that I wanted him to win, but did every ball have to be hit on the nose?

Robinson Cano was one of chief culprits. In full ripper mode, he lashed balls in gaps and over fences for the three hard parts of the cycle. He just forgot to dink a single. When I realized he wasn’t going to get another at bat I was just slightly disappointed the Yanks were winning. But with the nature of the recent losses, there was no way I wanted to see a bottom of the ninth. We didn’t, as the Yanks won 9-3.

Ivan Nova continued to pitch well. He let up three runs in six innings. Five hits and three walks. Just really a special performance and a slap in the face to the godawful Burnett who was so vile last night that he let up four runs in six innings. Seven hits and three walks. Nova was bailed out by Soriano in the seventh and had seven runs of support. Girardi forced Burnett to walk Maicer Izturis and then left him to get out of his own jam. He didn’t and since he only had one run to work with, he left looking like a loser. When he failed, we crushed him for it.

I know Nova was better tonight than Burnett was last night. Burnett ran into trouble in the sixth. Nova made it to the seventh and that’s an important distinction. But the difference was not nearly as great as will be felt tomorrow.

Ivan Nova has pitched seven innings or more and let up two or fewer runs five times this year. Same as Burnett. Nova’s been better and I’d rather see him on the hill than Burnett, but it’s not as simple as Jack Curry made out earlier today. A.J. Burnett is going to be on the team for another two years after this season. The yankees are able to marginalize Posada because his career is over in a month and a half. If the same were true of Burnett, Girardi and Cashman could explore other options.

But it’s not just their jobs to win the most games possible in 2011. They also have to consider how publicly castrating A.J. Burnett is bound to have ramifications in 2012 and 2013. I’m as prone to rip A.J. for his bad outings as anyone, and I never understood the contract in the first place, but given where the Yanks are in the standings and where they are with all of these pitchers, I think they’re doing a good job of keeping all the non-CC pitchers in the mix.

Afternoon game tomorrow, hope the Yanks can win the series against another rookie, Tyler Chatwood. But it’s not his debut, so I won’t feel bad if the Yanks tattoo him.

Ivan Nova goes against prospect.

1. Gardner LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Granderson CF
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Chavez DH
8. Martin C
9. Nunez 3B

Like Al Davis used to say: Just Win, Baby.

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

Over at the YES Network, Jack Curry thinks it’s time to kick A.J. Burnett out of the starting rotation:

When Girardi removed Jorge Posada as the regular designated hitter and turned him into a reserve on Sunday in Boston, he said he was doing what was best for the team. Posada had not hit a homer since June 29 and had driven in four runs in his last 78 at-bats. After Eric Chavez returned from the disabled list, the Yankees spoke internally about how he could eventually take Posada’s at bats at the DH slot. Now Chavez has done that. Posada is a glorified pinch-hitter, a player who seems unlikely to make the postseason roster.

So what about Burnett’s status? The Yankees recognized how Posada’s unproductive at-bats were hurting them and made a change. It was decisive. The Yankees see how Burnett’s disappointing starts are hurting them, too. They need to be just as decisive with Burnett as they were with Posada. Since Ivan Nova has pitched much better than Burnett, and since Phil Hughes looked superb in his last start, why should they lose potential starts to Burnett? The answer is simple. They shouldn’t.

Amen.

[Photo Credit: N.Y. Daily News]

Over at BP, the staff looks at the 12 of their favorite basebrawls. Here’s a Yankee classic from Jay Jaffe:

1) Armando Benitez vs. Tino Martinez and the Yankees
At 28-9, the 1998 Yankees had already shown that they were in the business of kicking ass and taking names when the Orioles came to town having lost five straight games to push them under .500. The O’s were on track to snap their streak with a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning when the Yankees drew two walks while making two outs against tiring O’s starter Sidney Ponson and reliever Alan Mills. A Paul O’Neill single off Norm Charlton cut the lead to 5-4 when Benitez, the Orioles’ imposing but immature closer, was summoned for a four-out save. Instead, he served up a three-run homer to Bernie Williams to give the Yankees a 7-5 lead, then blatantly plunked Tino Martinez between the shoulder blades with a 90-something MPH fastball on his next pitch. “That was a real cheap shot,” said Yankees broadcaster Jim Kaat.

Martinez jawed at Benitez on the way down to first base, and the 6-foot-4 reliever dropped his glove. Both benches and bullpens emptied, and things escalated when Yankees’ lefty reliever Graeme Lloyd—a 6-foot-8 Australian native my friends and I called “The Big Dingo”—came charging out of the bullpen and grabbed Benitez’s chin before throwing a few wild punches with fellow Yankee reliever Jeff Nelson joining the fray. Benitez connected on a blow to the back of Lloyd’s neck as he retreated from the mound into foul territory. As he neared the dugout, he squared off with Scott Brosius, who threw no punches but captured his attention while Darryl Strawberry rolled up behind and connected on a sucker punch to Benitez’s head before pushing him into the Oriole dugout. Strawberry was restrained by multiple Orioles at the edge of the dugout, but amazingly enough, the two would square off again minutes later after Mills punched Strawberry while an irate Martinez kept making his way towards Benitez. The second time, Stawberry’s blow was more glancing, and his momentum carried him into the dugout where Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken tried to calm him down. Ultimately, it took around 15 minutes before order was restored and play resumed.

“This is like one of those hockey brawls where the umpires have to figure out who stays and who goes,” said Yankees broadcaster (and former Oriole) Ken Singleton. “To a man, the Orioles refused to muster even feigned support for Benitez,” wrote Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci. “The action of ‘I’ll hurt you if I can’t beat you’ totally misrepresents the Baltimore Orioles’ tradition of good play and sportsmanship,” said manager Ray Miller in apologizing to the Yankees. Benitez drew an eight-game suspension while Strawberry and Lloyd (three games) and Mills and Nelson (two games) received suspensions as well. The Yankees went on to win 114 regular season games and the World Series while the Orioles were swept by the Yankees en route to a nine-game losing streak. They haven’t had a winning season since. —Jay Jaffe

[Photo Credit: N.Y. Daily News]

Mariano Rivera entered a tie game in the ninth and fell behind the first four batters he faced. Alberto Callaspo started 2-0 and ended up with jam-shot liner into shallow right. Erick Aybar bunted a 1-0 pitch and Rivera made a beautiful spin and throw to nail Callaspo at second. Howie Kendrick started 1-0, but then fell behind as Aybar swiped second. Kendrick grounded out. Rivera was almost out of trouble, but he fell behind 2-0 to Bobby Abreu and evenutally sat a 3-1 pitch towards the middle of the plate. Abreu smacked it over the right field fence for a two-run homer.

If you look at Gameday, almost every one of Mariano’s pitches nipped the corner of the zone. But the ump wasn’t giving him the edges. Close calls, could be balls, but lately Mariano has been enjoying the “legend zone” and gets a lot of strikes even off the corners. It was the difference tonight as he finally threw a very hittable pitch and Abreu got all of it.

The Yanks went into the ninth against rookie Jordan Walden, a real flamethrower. I got a chance to see him live in Dodger Stadium where his stuff was overpowering even viewed from the upper deck. But he was all over the park. It was much the same story tonight. I don’t know if could have thrown enough strikes to get three outs on his own before walking in two runs. But Brett Gardner gave him an out swinging at ball four in the opposite batters’ box. At least he had two strikes when he swung. Curtis Granderson swung at two borderline balls while ahead in the count. Even if they were strikes, they were 98, low and away. What did expect to do with that pitch? His weak grounder was almost a double play.

Granderson wasn’t done giving outs away though. With Teixeira up representing the winning run, Granderson was caught stealing by the old fake-to-third move. He was trying to get into scoring position. But with Teixeira batting lefty, what are the chances of a single? It’s short-porch city or die trying. It was the third time Walden employed the fake-to-third move in the at-bat – I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. Terrible end to a terrible night as the Angels won 6-4.

And look at that, Walden got just about every close call according to Gameday and a few that were really bad. With Teixeira sitting 1-1, Walden fired well outside and the ump saw it a strike. That put Teixeira down to his last strike and possibly triggered Granderson’s try for second. Mariano threw two clear balls in the inning and got the squeeze. Walden threw several pitches Nuke LaLoosh would be ashamed of and was given the black and beyond.

Before the flood in the ninth, A.J. Burnett had a start seemingly designed to enrage Yankee fans everywhere. I believe we can handle him getting ripped early. I believe we can handle him getting nicked here and there in what adds up to a bad start. But what we can’t handle is five innings of control, confidence and precision followed by a sixth of complete pus. Asking A.J. Burnett to intentionally walk someone in the midst of an inning like that is like asking a broken stock trader standing on the window ledge if he can repay the $10 you gave him for lunch yesterday.

A.J.’s collapse, Abreu’s homer and the silly ending buried the sweet Yankee rally in the seventh. Dan Haren had been cruising through the game and was two outs deep in the seventh when the Yankees put together three runs, the last two coming courtesy of a Derek Jeter single off reliever Fernando Rodney.

Haren’s line looks much the same as Burnett’s tonight, but that didn’t stop me from feeling my usual pang of regret every time I see him pitch. Of all the top pitchers the Yanks have been linked to lately, I thought his reported price tag was the most reasonable. I would have been thrilled to make that deal at the time, and knowing now that the Yankee organization had decided Joba was a middle-reliever by the end of 2009, it hurts even more.

The Yankees were in first place days ago, and I’m already back to checking the Wild Card standings. Thanks to tonight’s victory, the Angels are now only six games behind. If the Yanks can bounce back and take the series, or even just a game, it won’t be so bad. But if they get swept, I’m going to write some poorly reasoned shit on Thursday.

The Yanks return to New York from Boston licking their wounds. Still, they’ve been playing well and here’s hoping that continues against those lousy Angels.

Lots of rain here in New York so there’s no telling if they’ll get this one in. But if they do, we’ll do the rootin’:

Let’s Go Yank-ees.

Jorge Posada was benched in Boston Sunday night. The motion led to speculation about Posada’s future; Monday it was confirmed. The benching wasn’t a one-off. It’s indefinite.

Jorge Posada, NYY, 1995-2011?

The media are treating the news as if it’s Posada’s baseball obituary. It very well may be. Joel Sherman wrote that if he were not Jorge Posada “he would be treated like Jack Cust and Lyle Overbay.” Wally Matthews echoed that sentiment, writing that “the Yankees stuck with him far longer than they probably would have had his name been something other than Jorge Posada, simply out of respect for his legacy with the team.” In that same article, Matthews noted how the incident in May affected his relationship with his teammates. Girardi, if you remember, slotted the struggling Posada ninth in the order — also, coincidentally, in a series against the Red Sox — and Posada later pulled himself from the game with a bruised ego. At the Pinstriped Bible, friend to the Banter Steven Goldman writes that if the Yankees are strong in their conviction that he can’t help them win, then they should just let him move on.

Dave Rothenberg, filling in for Stephen A. Smith on 1050, said he still believes Posada has something left. Maybe he does, but the Yankees gave him four months to work it out, to adjust to being a designated hitter. They weren’t going to do what the Red Sox are doing with Jason Varitek — giving him one or two days behind the plate per week and figuring whatever offense he contributes is gravy. The Yankees knew they couldn’t sustain the defensive liability having him catch even one game would bring. The next best option: DH. In that, the Yankees sought the same — or at least similar — level of production he provided last year or in 2009. But it wasn’t there. I discussed the toll not being an everyday catcher has taken on Posada’s pride in May:

Posada has looked lost. A player suffering through an identity crisis. Having had to make an abrupt switch from catching 130 games a year to being the team’s full-time designated hitter, Posada has not adjusted well.

And he never did adjust. At least, not fully. Posada was able to get his average up to .230 before Girardi called him into his office to tell him, in no uncertain terms, that he’s done. Give Girardi credit: he didn’t continue to dangle Posada out there out of loyalty in the way that Joe Torre used to with Bernie Williams when his defense was declining as early as 2002. And they’re not ignoring Posada the way they did Williams in the 2006-2007 offseason. Girardi was not afraid to have the tough conversation. That’s the sign of a good manager. His job is to win game; if he doesn’t believe Posada gives him a good enough chance to win, then he shouldn’t be in the lineup. (Random aside: let’s see if Girardi does this with AJ Burnett in six weeks. Just sayin’ …) With all the undertones of their relationship as teammates when Girardi was the aging veteran and Posada the up-and-comer, of course this situation was bound to be a soap opera at some point.

Posada was the last person to realize that his skills were diminished. He wasn’t lucky enough to enjoy a renaissance in the way that his best friend, Derek Jeter, has in the past month. The anger and — depending on your perception, petulance — of Posada’s tone in May has turned to resignation.

Posada was a good soldier for a long time. Now, being a good soldier means being a disgruntled cheerleader. That is, until, or unless, the Yankees let him work his way back into the lineup.

[Photo Credit: N.J.com]

The end, well, it usually ain’t pretty.

From Joel Sherman:

Girardi met with Posada to tell him he was “going with his best lineups,” which after all of these years meant ones without Posada.

…For now, the Yankees are holding off on summoning Jesus Montero. He is hot at Triple-A (.333 with seven extra-base hits in his past 13 games). However, there remains infighting among Yankees decision-makers if it is the wrong message to promote Montero when he has not dominated Triple-A and at times projects indifference about being there. Nevertheless, if the new DH structure does not work, Montero will be called up; yet another sign the Yankees are in a DH phase of anyone but Posada.

“I’m not happy about it,” Posada said. “But right now I can’t do anything about it.”

In reality, if he were not Jorge Posada he would be treated like Jack Cust and Lyle Overbay, two veterans with somewhat similar numbers to Posada who were released recently by the Mariners and Pirates, respectively. Instead, the Yankees will keep Posada on the 25-man roster in a nebulous role that could include pinch-hitting or an occasional DH start or maybe a game at first.

Bummer for Posada. Truth hurts.

[Photo Credit: Nisa Yeh]

With first place on the line at Fenway Park, the Yankees and Red Sox played a taut, tense four-hour-plus doozy. Each team had reason to expect victory, and several chances to seize it, but the Yankees handed Mariano Rivera a lead, however slim, and that usually tips the scales. Mariano didn’t hold the lead and the Yankees lost 3-2.

Sometimes your team stumbles into a late lead in a huge game in such a way that you don’t feel the edge is deserved nor secure. Game Seven in 2001 was one of those games. This was one of those games. So when Mariano took the ball and the 2-1 lead into the ninth, I felt nothing but black dread. As is often the case, he didn’t pitch poorly, but he picked the wrong ballpark to let up a deepish fly ball to left. In every other stadium in the league, Marco Scutaro’s lead off double is an out. This fly ball plunked off the Monster before it could fall into Gardner’s glove, and the Red Sox swiftly executed two sacrifices to tie the game.

On Ellsbury’s sacrifice bunt, which set up Pedroia’s sac fly, Mariano plucked the ball off one hop and spun to look at third. Eduardo Nuñez broke in on the bunt and Derek Jeter did not cover the bag. Mariano is an aggressive fielder and we’ve seen him go for the out at third, but with no one there, he had to turn and go to first. I wonder if someone was supposed to be there? Or if Boston’s bunt caught New York off-guard?

With the game tied, the Yankees were out of their “A” relievers, but Boston had Daniel Bard in reserve. He flamed a scoreless tenth and the Joe Girardi turned to Phil Hughes. Phil Hughes has an ERA around 7.00. Mariano Rivera had thrown nine pitches in the ninth. The Red Sox scored quickly off Hughes and won the game.

The epic journey that has been and will be Phil Hughes need not end tonight. But, as I’ve mentioned, I’d sooner change his name, shave his head, and place him in a safe-house in Wyoming before giving him the ball in extra-innings in Fenway Park. Girardi disagrees.

And I lost my wallet today, so I guess that means my vacation is officially over. If you’re not already burying your head in your coffee, there’s four other hours of baseball to peruse below.

The Red Sox sketched out a run in the second. García lost Youkilis for a walk. The Yankees employed their half-assed shift in which Jeter stood right up the middle and Canó played an extra-deep second base. Nuñez stayed somewhat close to third. Ortiz pulled the ball to exactly where Canó would be playing in a full shift and notched the safety. Carl Crawford followed with a 70-foot Baltimore Chop that bounced in all the wrong places and the Sox were set up with loaded bases and no outs. Freddy almost got out of the jam, but Scutaro squirted a grounder between Teix and Canó to push the lead-off walk across the plate.

Unlike other Beckett starts this season, that Yankees had base runners and made bids to tie the score. With Russell Martin on third in the third, Jeter’s two-out liner looked like a hit, but Pedroia didn’t have to move too far to snag it. With Granderson on third in the fourth, Swisher’s two-out smash looked like extra bases, but Ellsbury ran it down with a few feet to spare in that godforsaken triangle.

The Yankees finally found some two-out magic in the fifth. Eduardo Nunez sent a 1-0 cutter high into the sky and just deep enough to dink it off the light tower over the Monster. That was all they would get off Beckett, who made a several big pitches for strike outs with men on base, but at least they made him work for his dinner. He was done after six innings.

Garcia didn’t make it as long. Like Bartolo Colón in the first game of the series, he might have had a few more pitches in his arm when Girardi gave him the hook. But I thought both were about to run into trouble. Boone Logan started the sixth and brought trouble with him. Cory Wade was next in line. He found himself with bases loaded and a 3-0 count on the super-hot Ellsbury. He sucked it up and threw four strikes and got Ellsbury to pop to left to end the inning.

Matt Albers replaced Josh Beckett and got two quick outs. He looked so effective that the Boston faithful struck up a rousing chorus of “Yankees Suck” during Brett Gardner’s at bat. Like Henry V’s St. Crispen’s Day speech, “Yankees Suck” strikes a deep emotional chord in all who hear it. Perhaps Matt Albers was moved to tears and his vision blurred as he delivered a floating meatball that Gardner launched into the Red Sox bullpen. Possibly Albers was still teary when he beaned Jeter. Ah well, wait ’til the tenth, noble souls.

The Yankees had a chance to extend the lead later in that inning with newcomer Franklin Morales walking the bases loaded on nine pitches. He threw a few strikes to Canó and got him to ground out. The bullpens were fully fired up at this point. The Yankees called on Soriano for a 1-2-3 seventh. Dan Wheeler went one better in the eighth and struck out the side.

David Robertson let up a one-out single to Carl Crawford. He struck out Josh Reddick next, but the nasty deuce eluded Martin and Crawford advanced to scoring position. With two strikes on Varitek, another big breaker bounced off Martin and Crawford was 90 feet away from tying the game. I was worried that Robertson would go after Varitek with another unhittable/uncatchable curve and the Red Sox would tie it up on a strike-out-passed-ball. But Martin wisely called for heaters. Overpowered, Varitek popped out.

Papelbon stranded Gardner at second in the ninth and the Yankees asked Mariano to bundle this crude 2-1 scoreline into a victory. You know the rest.

The Yankees are 2-10 against the Red Sox this year, but this was the only game that meant anything at all to me. I still think the Red Sox will win the division and will be big favorites if they meet in the Postseason. Jon Lester is that much better than anyone the Yanks have to go at him. Winning this game wouldn’t have changed any of that, and it wouldn’t have found my wallet. But I’d be smiling just the same.

Artwork by Ando Keskküla

Yanks-Sox: Beckett vs. Fab Five Freddy.

No preamble, just cheerin’:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

Well, that sucked. C.C. Sabathia got mushed by the Red Sox again, the bats didn’t do dick and there was no joy in the Boogie Down. 10-4 Sox.

The beauty part for me is that I was stuck at a family party and didn’t see a pitch of it. Still, lousy as this was, it’ll feel better if the Yanks return to the favor tomorrow night against that sombitch from Texas.

As Jesse Jackson once said, “Keep Hope Alive.” No time to get un-Dude.

Oh, and C.C. will have his revenge against the Sox. And you can take that to the bank.

The Big Fellas goes today against Large John Lackey. Greed is good, ya hoid?

Here’s the line-up:

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Eric Chavez 3B
Jorge Posada DH
Francisco Cervelli C

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Featured image by Joseph Holmes]

The Yankees entered the weekend series at Fenway Park hoping to finally earn a win against the Red Sox, but when Joe Girardi made a slow stroll to the mound in the fifth, it seemed like another loss to Boston was inevitable. With the bases loaded and Adrian Gonzalez coming to the plate, Girardi decided to lift Bartolo Colon and bring in the much maligned Boone Logan. The entire Yankees’ Universe held its breath, but three pitches later, it was time to exhale. After getting ahead with a fastball, Logan induced the MVP front runner into swinging through two sliders. The crisis was averted and the Yankees lived to fight another inning.

Perhaps inspired byLogan’s heroics, the Yankees immediately went on the attack against Jon Lester, who entered the sixth inning having allowed only two walks and two hits. Four batters into the inning, however, the Yankees not only had a run, but a bases loaded threat of their own. With the game in the balance, Lester and Robinson Cano engaged in a classic confrontation, and on the ninth pitch, the Red Sox lefty got the double play he needed. Despite tying the game, Cano’s twin killing was a big let down, but before the disappointment could sink in, Nick Swisher lined an RBI double down the left field line that put the Yankees on top 3-2

Over the final four innings of the game, five Yankees’ relievers combined to shutdown the Boston lineup on only two hits. Included in the effort was a clean frame from Rafael Soriano, the third 1-2-3 inning recorded by the enigmatic reliever since returning from the disabled list. How significant was Soriano’s seventh inning performance? Before retiring the Red Sox in order, the right hander had only registered one clean frame in a game in which the Yankees didn’t have a 10-run lead…and it came on Opening Day.

Although the bullpen’s well rounded contribution was certainly a positive, the Yankees were probably hoping they wouldn’t have to use so much of it. Having C.C. Sabathia on the mound tomorrow mitigates some of the concern about a having a depleted relief corps, but the bigger disappointment revolves around Colon. Come October, the Yankees will need the rejuvenated right hander to pull his weight, but after tonight’s abbreviated start against Boston, the lingering questions about his playoff viability will likely persist.

Because both teams enjoy a comfortable lead over the other American League wild card contenders, the focus of this weekend series has been more about determining if the Yankees can beat the Red Sox than who will win the division. By drawing first blood, the Yankees made progress toward both ends, but messages aren’t sent in one game. That’s what the next eight are for.

Yanks vs the Sox. August. First place on the line. What more can I say?

Cliff’s got the preview:

The Yankees enter this series as the underdog, because they’re the road team, because it had been nearly a month since they had been in first place, and because they have gone just 1-8 against Boston thus far this series. However, the Yankees also enter this series hot, having won their last seven games against the Orioles and White Sox. Not that the Red Sox could be considered cold, though they’ve split their first four games in August, they went an astonishing 20-6 (.769) in July.

Leading the Boston charge of late has been Dustin Pedroia, who since the calendar flipped to June has arguably been the best player in baseball, hitting .377/.454/.623 with 11 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 12 attempts over that span in addition to his typically outstanding play in the field. Pedroia’s closest rival over that period has been the man who plays to his left, Adrian Gonzalez, who has hit .384/.457/.593 over that span. Indeed, the Boston lineup is just crushing it right now. Rookie Josh Reddick seems to have solved right field by hitting .333/.382/.581 since being recalled in late June. Their catchers are hitting, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia leading the way with a .290/.358/.574 line with ten home runs dating back to a series between these two teams in mid-April. That leaves Carl Crawford and Marco Scutaro as the only Red Sox regulars who aren’t crushing the ball right now. Indeed, that red-hot July was stoked by the Boston Bats, which pushed across a staggering 6.58 runs per game on the month.

On the season, the Sox lead the majors with 5.47 runs scored per game. The Yankees are second at 5.40. To put that productivity in proper context, third place is 5.02, fourth place is 4.81, and fifth place is 4.68, and the American League average is 4.36 runs per game.

The Sox have beaten the Yanks about the face and neck so far this year. Be nice to see that change starting tonight.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Andruw Jones LF
Russell Martin C
Jorge Posada DH
Eduardo Nunez 3B

Go git ’em, boys. We’ll be cheerin’ you on:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Painting by Ray Ellis]

The Yankees and Red Sox enter this weekend’s showdown at Fenway Park neck and neck in the pennant race, but media coverage of each team might lead you to believe Boston is way ahead. Considering consensus expectations before the season, this divergence between perception and reality is understandable.  However, the more you look inside the numbers, the more it seems as if the Yankees are the better team.

Tale of the Tape: Yankees vs. Red Sox

Note: WAR calculations are an average of fangraphs’ and b-r.com’s versions. Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

Since their slow start, the Red Sox have been looked upon as an offensive juggernaut. In this case, the perception is dead on. The Boston lineup currently has four members on pace to produce over 6 bWAR, which, if accomplished, would match only the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates for the most ever. What’s more, the Red Sox dominance extends well beyond their four best hitters. As a group, the offense has scored 5.5 runs per game, which, compared to the American League average of 4.36, represents a historic level of production. If maintained over the final two months of the season, the Red Sox’ current 26.2% run premium over the league average would not only rank as the second highest total in franchise history, but also stand as the 13th best total in the majors since 1901.

Coming into the season, the Yankees were the team most expected to dominate with their offense, and, for the most part, they have. Although the Red Sox offense has rated a notch better by most metrics, the two teams are relatively close in runs scored. As a result, the Yankees can also boast an offense that is outscoring the league at historic levels. The Bronx Bombers’ 23.6% premium over the league ranks seventh in franchise history and just inside the all-time top-30.

Despite the potentcy of the Yankees’ offense, the real strength of the team has, ironically, been its pitching. Entering the season, no one could have (or should have) predicted that the Yankees would enter August leading the league in ERA+, but the team’s current rate easily outdistances the second ranked Rangers. From a historical standpoint, the Yankees’ ERA+ of 123 is also at its highest level since the strike shortened season of 1981.

Yankees Historical ERA+ and OPS+, 1961 to 2011

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Because the Yankees have been extremely good at both scoring and preventing runs, it should be no surprise that the team’s per-game run differential of 1.5 leads all of baseball (the Red Sox are second at 1.3). However, the 2011 Yankees’ ability to outscore their opponents is more than just unrivaled in the present. Since 1901, only 36 other teams have posted a higher per-game run differential, including 12 Yankees clubs from the past (the 1939 team’s 2.7 per-game advantage is the highest total in baseball history).

Yankees Historical Run Differential, 1901 to 2011

Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Considering the Yankees’ comparative aggregate advantage over the Red Sox, they, not Boston, should probably be perceived as the favorite in the A.L. East. However, at this to this point, the sum hasn’t been equal to parts. Entering the weekend’s action, the Yankees have underperformed their expected record (also know as the Pythagorean winning percentage) by four games. That might not seem like much, but the Yankees’ current Pythagorean deficit ranks as the eight “highest” in franchise history and within the “top” 10% of all teams since 1901.

Yankees’ Historical Pythagorean Surplus/Deficit, 1901 to 2011

Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

The Red Sox’ current and expected win totals are in line, so perhaps Boston’s relative efficiency is another reason why it seems like they are having a better season? This dynamic is manifested in the Red Sox’ league-leading winning percentage in games decided by two or fewer runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees are under .500 in these games, which, perhaps more than anything, has left the impression the team has underperformed. However, a more optimistic person might regard this as a positive sign, especially when you consider how infrequently the Yankees find themselves on the wrong side of a lopsided defeat.

A.L. Records in Games Decided by “Two or Fewer” and “Three or More Runs”

Note: Close games defined as those decided by two or fewer runs. Data as of August 3, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com

If the season series hadn’t been so one-sided in favor of the Red Sox (for a yearly rivalry breakdown, click here), the Yankees might be marching into Fenway Park with a comfortable lead.  Instead, they’ll have to settle for flat-footed tie. Considering the two teams have been within three games of each other in the standings since May 13, it’s unlikely that the pennant will be decided this weekend. However, if the Yankees hope to turn the tables on Boston, just as they did in 2009, there is no margin for error. In other words, it’s time for the Yankees to give the Red Sox a first hand look at what they’ve been doing to the rest of the league for the entire season.

A.L. East Division Race, Game-by-Game Progression

Note: Negative numbers represent games out of first place; positive numbers represent games ahead.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Who? Janice. What? New die hard, no scars. Evidence of Delusion? She looked like she was 12, but she was running a burger joint.

The Yanks have had a wonderful two weeks. Ten wins and three losses, under normal circumstances, might have spring boarded them into first place with a few games to spare. But these are not normal circumstances, and the Red Sox have only ceded a small part of their lead during the Yanks hot streak. Nevertheless, Boston fans get sense New York is for real.

Janice was the first person that was offended by my hat. “I’d wish you a nice day, but you wore a Yankee hat into my store,” she said without a trace of ribbing. I gave her a hard stare for a second to make sure I wasn’t misreading her anger. “If I had seen you order, I would have had them spit in it.”

This was the mother load of anti-Yankee sentiment. All rolled up in a cute little college student wearing a paper hat. She wasn’t even alive to see the ball roll through Buckner’s legs. The only would she’s ever taken was fully healed the following year.

With the standings tight and the Yanks coming to Fenway, I thought there would be a lot more of Janice. But most everyone here is just fantastic. Great baseball fans who don’t give a hoot about the Yanks anymore than any first place team should worry about the second place team.

Yankee Snark: “Good luck this weekend, Janice. And by the way, you burgers are lousy.”

Before we get to the usual Yankee-Red Sox excitement, a brief word on A.J. Burnett. Here’s Steven Goldman:

His numbers aren’t that bad,” said Joe Girardi on Wednesday night. “If you look at the numbers of Hughes, I mean, Hughesy made one good start. We look at the whole year, and A.J.’s been decent for us.”

Joe: you’re measuring by the wrong yardstick, the yardstick of hyper-inflated super-offense. We aren’t there this year. The AL is scoring 4.3 runs per game. The last time you could say that was 1992. Burnett hasn’t been the outright disaster that he was last year, but “decent” might be generous. His ERA has risen every month of the season. He has a career-high home-run rate going… And he’s signed through 2013, so no one wants to admit that the higher upside is to be found elsewhere.

Mike Mussina was dropped from the rotation when he struggled in 2007. Ron Guidry was sent to the bullpen a couple of times towards the end of his career. It doesn’t have to be that Phil Hughes ends up in the bullpen, assuming he continues to pitch well (big assumption, I know) or Ivan Nova heads to Triple-A. There are other options, no matter how seemingly disruptive. The point is to win, not to spend four years avoiding the consequences of an ill-considered contract.

Loyal reader, Dina Colarossi, has a fine solution: “I think his new role should be sitting in a dunk tank outside the stadium before every game. Charge people $5 a shot, and they will recoup his contract in no time at all.”

And just think how much better we’d feel.

[Photo Credit: N.J.com]