At the beginning of the year, many feared the Yankees were hitting “too many home runs”. According to the most often expressed concern, the team’s inability to play small ball would eventually prove costly in October (a myth disproven in an earlier CBN post). Well, those worried by the Yankees’ reliance on the long ball can rest easy now because the team’s offense has evolved into the most balanced in the American League.

Yankees’ A.L. Rankings in HRs and SBs, 1901-2011
 

Note: Yellow markers indicate years in which the Yankees led in both categories.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Over the years, the Yankees have been synonymous with power. In 37 of 110 seasons (not including the present), the Bronx Bombers have finished first in home runs, so it should come as no surprise that the 2011 team currently leads the league with 160. However, some might be shocked to know the Yankees’ 120 stolen bases are tied with the Kansas City Royals for the top spot (the team’s success rate of 76% is also tops in the A.L.).

The last time the Yankees led the league in steals was 1985, when Rickey Henderson set a then single season franchise record with 80 (Henderson would break his own record in 1986 and 1988). However, before that season, no Yankees’ ball club had finished first in steals since 1938, when the team set the pace with a relatively low accumulation of 91. In total, eight teams in franchise history have led the league in steals, which illustrates how much more the Yankees have relied on power.

Yankees’ Top-10 Seasons in Home Runs and Stolen Bases

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Although the 2011 Yankees are unlikely to approach the franchise records of 244 home runs (2009) and 288 stolen bases (1910), they could become only the fourth pinstripe squad to finish first in both categories (the only other A.L. franchise to accomplish that feat was the 1995 Cleveland Indians). Once again, you have to go all the back to the 1930s to find a Yankees’ team that displayed preeminence in both power and speed. In fact, all three dual first place rankings occurred during that decade, although it should be noted that the leading totals were relatively low because the era deemphasized the stolen base.

American League Category Leaders by Franchise, 1901-2011

Note: Rankings for each category do not total 110 season because of ties. Teams listed in order of most cumulative category leading finishes.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Not surprisingly, the Yankees led the league in runs during each season in which they also finished first in home runs and stolen bases. The same trend also holds this season. Despite all of the publicity given to the Red Sox offense, the Yankees are the team that leads the American League in runs scored (albeit by only three). If they can hold onto that margin, it would give the Yankees the top spot in runs for the 31st time in franchise history, and the fifth time in six years, a level of dominance surpassed only by the 1926-1933 lineups, which outscored the league in seven of eight seasons.

Using the long ball and small ball, the Yankees’ offense has proven to be one of the most dynamic in franchise history. Only five other teams in club history have scored more runs relative to the league average, so the lineup’s diversification has clearly paid dividends. As a result, the Bronx Bombers’ bats have left little reason for concern, which only means Yankees’ fans will now have to find something else about which to worry.

Nice note about C.C. Sabathia’s visit to the Negro League Museum in Bats over at the Times. In the same piece, David Waldstein has an update on Alex Rodrgiuez:

Alex Rodriguez is still expected to join the Yankees in Minnesota on Thursday, but Joe Girardi said that he might not be immediately activated from the disabled list because of uncertainty about whether his right knee is ready.

“We may not activate him for a couple of days,” Girardi said.

Rodriguez, who had arthroscopic surgery on the knee last month, played third base for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Wednesday, then was expected to fly to Minnesota. (He went 1 for 2, with two walks.) Girardi said he wanted to talk to Rodriguez and perhaps have him get some treatment from the trainer Gene Monahan, work in the batting cage and take ground balls before making a decision.

“A couple of days, if you rush it, could cost you a couple of weeks if you end up hurting something else,” Girardi said. “That’s why we want to take a look at him with our own eyes tomorrow and see how far he is away and see if he’s ready.”

Girardi said he might initially use Rodriguez as the designated hitter in order to ease him back into action.

Robinson Cano has been magnificent of late. Spectacular in the field and prodigious at the plate. But with bases loaded in the ninth trailing by two runs, his willingness to hack helped Joakim Soria escape a terrible jam. Mark Teixeira walked on four pitches in front of Cano to load the bases with one out. Soria threw five straight balls to Cano, but Robbie ripped at two of them. Soria won the battle as Cano flew out to left.

That was the big out of the inning, but the Yankees still had life. Swisher walked (on four pitches, Robbie) after a passed ball and the bases were loaded again. Birthday boy Jorge Posada followed. I hope his cake is extra sweet, because he struck out without taking the bat off his shoulders. Two of the pitches looked outside, but the last one was too close to take. Maybe ripping ain’t such a bad idea when the umps can’t find the strike zone. Or the outfield fence.

When Mariano Rivera needs to be restrained in the dugout, that’s probably a blown call. In the third, the umpiring crew saw a ball that clearly bounced off the fence as a home run. But the fence is segmented, so that a small chain link fence sits above a green padded wall. More green padding edges the top of the chain link section. Common sense dictates that the entire structure represents the “fence” but this is Kansas City, so apparently nobody knows for sure.

Billy Butler, reaching for his helmet to return to second base, could not contain a smirk when he saw the signal. “He’s looking like the cat who ate the canary,” said David Cone. Kim Jones talked with Royals personnel, including the great Frank White, and reported that no, it was not a home run.

After the game, Joe Girardi explained that crew chief Dana DeMuth understood the ground rules differently. He didn’t think it needed to clear the entire fence to be a home run. Girardi assumed the umpire knew the ground rules and didn’t protest. He plans to check on the ground rules tomorrow by calling the League Office. What is this, 1954? Everybody in KC is out celebrating the victory? Gimme a break, we should have that information before this post is finished.

Since he didn’t protest at the time, it’s likely the Yankees have lost the chance to protest the game – though they should at least make the attempt. Maybe they can send a message to the League Office by carrier pigeon.

With better pitching from Bartolo Colon or more timely hitting from the Yankees, that run would not have mattered. Though the Yankees pounded Bruce Chen’s offerings early and often, they only managed to charge three runs to his account. In the first two spots of the lineup, Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson combined to go seven for nine with a walk, two doubles and a homer, but somehow only contributed three runs. The Yankees went one for ten with runners in scoring position.

Jeter singled to lead off the game and was caught stealing by Chen’s pick off move just before Granderson homered. When Granderson doubled off the wall, Jeter wasn’t on base. And second baseman Johnny Giavotella robbed Granderson of a base hit and RBI after Jeter’s long double. When they finally joined forces to lead off the seventh with a single and a walk, Teixeira, Cano and Swisher struck out in succession. (Both the umpire and the three Yankees lost track of the strike zone during those at bats – the first slider to Swisher was the only sure strike for me.) Russell Martin stranded five in his first two times up and then hit a lonely homer in the sixth. Before you knew it, Bruce Chen was racking up a victory, 5-4.

The Royals smashed Yankee starters all series long, so it should be no surprise that Bartolo Colon got lit up. The Yanks offense didn’t support him the way they did Burnett and Nova and the bullpen was spent, so perhaps he would have pulled when he was in trouble in the fifth. Kauffman Stadium played like a bouncy castle this series, so Yankee starters will be glad to see Minnesota.

The Yanks are now done with KC, so we bid farewell to Melky Cabrera. He’s among the top twenty hitters in the American League and hit the ball hard all series long. The Yankees traded him, stud prospect Arodys Vizcaino, who’s already in the Major Leagues for Atlanta, and Michael Dunn for a batting practice machine with Javy Vazquez’s name on the back. I think this is going to leap past the Marte-Nady deal as the worst of Cashman’s tenure.

Tabata’s where Melky was at 22; Melky’s finally taken a few steps forward. And while Karstens is having a nice year, Vizcaino has oodles more talent. Of the Dunn-Logan-Marte loogy triumverate, Marte’s spotless Postseason in 2009 rates over what the other guys have done, though if Logan does something special this year, he’d shoot to the top.

The Red Sox lost earlier in the day so the Yankees squandered a chance to increase their lead in the standings. Bummer.

Top Photo via Zack Hample

It’s Bruce Chen Fireworks Night, folks. Seems to good to be true. Which means the Yanks’ll lose, right?

Let’s hope not.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Andruw Jones DH
Russell Martin C
Eduardo Nunez 3B
Brett Gardner LF

And Let’s Go Yank-ees!

Orlando Hernandez has officially retired.

Other Yankees have been around longer. Other Yankees contributed more to the last dynasty. And certainly, many other Yankees were consistently better. But El Duque is one of the first guys I think of from that era. As a morbidly pessimisstic fan in those days (I think I’ve evolved past the morbid part in the intevening decade), no other starter inspired security like El Duque.

I’ll never forget the first inning of the 1999 ALDS against the powerful Rangers lineup. Pudge doubled with one out and El Duque faced the heavy hitters. He gave the lefties Greer and Palmeiro nothing at all and walked them both to load the bases. But the righties Gonzalez and Zeile he attacked with his full arsenal and exploited their aggression with ever-widening sliders until he had them fishing for pitches a foot outside.

And if there was a more crucial postseason game in the three-peat than his his ballsy victory in Cleveland in Game Four of the 1998 ALCS, I don’t know if I want to remember.

His pitching style was unforgettable and almost impossible to replicate on the stick-ball blacktop, though it didn’t stop us from straining our gluts giving it a try. His feisty confidence was refreshing and his arguments with Posada during mound visits were always entertaining.

When he walked those Texas lefties, there was no doubt it was part of a master plan. Perhaps that plan was a little foolish and left too little margin for error, but I don’t think El Duque ever worried that it wouldn’t work. And watching at home, I wasn’t worried either, which is probably why he was my favorite starter.

The Yankees had two players during the most recent dynasty who delivered performances vastly better than their career statistics would have you believe was possible. The great Mariano and El Duque. Mariano went from Hall of Famer to statistical impossibilty in the Postseason and El Duque, a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm, turned into Bob Gibson.

His baseball-reference page will have my kids wonder what all the fuss was about. I can’t wait to tell them.

Boom.

Greetings, Banterers. The Yankees moved into first place in the AL East tonight – for now –  in a sloppy 9-7 win over the Royals that didn’t relly make anyone except Robinson Cano look good. Ivan Nova didn’t have it, but neither did the Royals pitchers, and Cano’s mega-homer in the interminable fourth inning was the difference. Nova gave up all seven of those runs in 5 and a third,  and while one might hope that nine runs would be enough for an easy victory, this was tighter than it should’ve been. Nova’s exceeded expectations enough that I’m willing to spot him a few, however, and KC pitcher Danny Duffy (who has a fantastic mlb.com profile photo, by the way) gave up eight in just three, so maybe it was one of those something-in-the-water games.

Ned Yost  got ejected arguing balls and strikes on Duffy’s behalf in that fourth inning, but Cano hit his monster shot immediately afterwards to cap off a great 12-pitch battle, so apparently getting tossed didn’t have quite the fire-up-the-troops effect Yost was going for. Though again, it was a great at-bat from Cano, and Duffy hardly disgraced himself although things did not exactly go his way.

Also coming through for New York were Derek Jeter (now up to .283 and OBPing .344, though with no slugging percentage to speak of), Mark Teixeira, Russell Martin and Brett Gardner; the bullpen quartet of Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, Dave Robertson, and Mo, who seems to be just fine, thankyouverymuch.

I’d be shocked if the Red Sox didn’t take the lead back at least once or twice, and frankly surprised if they didn’t end up with it, given the eyebrow-raising nature of the Yanks’ rotation. But hey, it’s gotten them this far. Starting tomorrow: the Incredible Colon.

Nova on the hill.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Andruw Jones DH
Russell Martin C
Eduardo Nunez 3B
Brett Gardner LF

No frills:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: R. Swan]

The Yankees have half-a-dozen starters for five slots so A.J. Burnett’s job assignment has been getting a lot of attention lately. He has been very bad for a good, long stretch now. When the Yankees have to make tough decisions, many, many fans would prefer to see him exiled to the bullpen, sent to the DL, or even released. How much of this has penetrated A.J.’s inner sanctum I have no idea, but he knows how bad he’s been lately and he can count to six. So I’m sure he appreciated the extra scrutiny on tonight’s start against the last-place Royals.

Burnett was protecting a 2-0 lead and potential victory when he faced Melky Cabrera with one out and the bases loaded in the fifth. It was a tough spot and Melky’s no slouch with the stick. Burnett leaped ahead of Cabrera 0-2 with a decent sinker and a good curve. He stood him up with an inside fastball. And then Burnett made his kill-pitch – the low hard curve down around Melky’s ankles. Melky spoiled it. A.J. looked frustrated that Melky hadn’t whiffed and fired his next three pitches indiscriminately towards the general back-stop area. Melky walked, cut the lead in half and Billy Butler followed with another hit that gave the Royals a 3-2 lead.

Stellar defense by Swisher (limiting Butler to a single on a liner towards the corner) and Cano (starting a gorgeous double play to end the inning) kept the score at 3-2, but A.J. Burnett left the mound spinning. And Yankee fans were knee-deep in another Burnett stinker. Through the fifth, he had allowed nine hits, a walk and three runs. Good defense saved him from a lot worse than that.

But the Yankees offense immediately responded to the deficit and pushed three runs across. With the new lead and A.J. somehow in line for a win, he was the last guy I expected to come out for the sixth inning. But there he was. He retired the first batter, allowed a single after a long AB, and then got Salvador Perez to fly out to center. Joe Girardi almost tripped over himself getting out to the mound. He lifted Burnett for Boone Logan. As Burnett left the game, Derek Jeter stopped and whispered something in his ear.

I think both Girardi and Jeter felt that sixth inning was of vital importance to A.J.’s mental state. To leave the game after the disaster in the fifth would have felt like a massive failure regardless of who ended up winning. But by sending A.J. out for the sixth, he might feel like he contributed something to the victory.

This game played out like a scenario contrived specifically for A.J. to work out his problems. That’s the state of the Wild Card race these days, and that, of course, is the state of the Kansas City Royals. I think if this were an important game, Girardi would have yanked Burnett after he walked Melky. Burnett appeared broken when Melky fouled off his out-pitch. And I think if it was even a semi-important game, Burnett would never have come out for the sixth. But it was a totally meaningless game, so Girardi experimented. Hopefully whatever he mixed in the test tube will be useful down the road.

In order for the psycho-drama to function properly, the Yankee offense needed to score first, but keep it close so they could fall behind. The defense had to be top-notch, as the Royals can hit a little bit and are aggressive on the bases. And then they needed to bounce back and give A.J. support when he needed it most. All parties performed their roles superbly. Gardner chopped run-scoring singles and Jeter had three hits and three RBI, the big blow a long triple to right-center that reclaimed the lead in the sixth.

I’d quibble about the first-inning bunt, but apparently, it was just part of the script tonight. Good thing it also called for a flawless Mariano save and a Yankee victory, 7-4. Rehire this creative team next time they play Boston.

Yup, it’s our boy A.J. on the hill tonight. You feelin’ it?

I’m feelin’ it.

First of three for the Yanks in Kansas City.

Cliff’s got the preview:

The Royals entered this season with by far the best farm system in baseball and have since stocked their major league roster with prospects, including first baseman Eric Hosmer, second baseman Johnny Giavotella, third baseman Mike Moustakas, lefty starter Danny Duffy (who will pitch on Tuesday), and relievers Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Greg Holland, Everett Teaford, and Rule 5 pick Nathan Adcock. Those players haven’t accomplished much more than getting their feet wet, however.

Moustakas has been awful. Hosmer has hit just .254/.317/.384 since June 8. Giavotella has been solid but has only been up for ten games. Duffy has just six quality starts in 15 turns. Crow, a curious choice for the team’s lone All-Star selection, has a 4.08 ERA and three blown saves in his last 16 outings. Tiny Tim Collins has walked 6.7 men per nine innings. Teaford has just one more strikeout than walk. Coleman and Holland have been excellent, but neither was considered among the cream of the farm system, and Adcock, who is in this discussion only by virtue of being a rookie, has a 5.23 ERA.

That said, the Royals do have a roughly league-average offense thanks to the unexpected performances of their outfielders, two of whom were roundly mocked when the Royals acquired them this offseason. Alex Gordon, who is finally fulfilling his potential at age 27 is actually one of the most valuable players in the league according to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). Melky Cabrera is, at 26, having by far the best season of his career, hitting for unprecedented average and power. Jeff Francoeur is having his best season since his rookie year of 2005, thanks in part to a career-high walk rate and his best power performance since 2006. Add in Billy Butler’s typical not-great-but-good showing at DH, and the Royals have half of a solid major league offense.

Of course, that has been undermined by Joakim Soria going rotten, posting the worst save percentage among the 24 men with 20 or more saves this season, most recently collaborating with Crow to blow a 7-3 lead against the Rays last Wednesday. Put it all together, and the Royals have the third-worst record in baseball, which is an unfortunately familiar place despite all those new faces, and are 2-8 over their last ten games coming into this series

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Eric Chavez 3B
Jorge Posada DH
Russell Martin C

Grab yer napkins and let us dream of K.C. bbq as we cheer:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: Kevin’sbbqjoints.com]

Steve Goldman looks at Curtis Granderson as an MVP candidate. He examines stats from Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference and says that:

One of the main reasons for variance between these measurements is the way they handle fielding, with each having different ways of tabulating a player’s defensive contribution. What is fascinating is that despite this, all three rankings agree that Granderson shouldn’t be anywhere near the MVP award, and they agree on the reason: they think he has been a poor defensive player this year. Conversely, they agree that Brett Gardner has been a spectacular defensive player, which is why he shows up in the top 10 for two of the three sites (Gardner ranks 17th in BP’s hierarchy). BP’s fielding runs say that Granderson has set the Yankees back about 10 runs with the glove beyond what an average defender would have done, equivalent to a full win. Fangraphs’ version of the same says about the same thing with -8 runs, while BB-Ref generously only penalizes him seven runs.

What perplexes me here is that I can’t see it, whether on television or at the ballpark. When we talk about Derek Jeter’s defensive deficiencies, I have always been able to see his difficulties going to his left. The statistics merely confirmed what I already knew. In this case, Granderson’s problems aren’t obvious to me, so I ask you: have you noticed Granderson fail to play a solid center field?

That’s a good question. I have a hard time wrapping my head around fielding stats, that’s for sure.

[Photo Credit: ESPN]

Over at The Yankee Analysts, Mike Jaggers-Radolf plays Name That Pitcher.

[Photo Credit: N.Y. Daily News]

He might not have much left but Jorge Posada made the most of his first start in a week today. In the second inning he hit a two-run single and in the fifth he hit a long grand slam home run as the Yanks beat-up on the Rays, 9-2. Phil Hughes pitched well, giving up a couple of runs on four hits over six innings, but it was Posada who gave the fans the big thrills. His buddy Derek Jeter was honored before the game–more 3,000 hit love–so it was lovely to see ol’ Jorge rip shit up.

One for the money, two for the show…a fun day in the Bronx.

Elsewhere, according to Brian Heyman:

Freddy Garcia cut a finger on his pitching hand four or five days ago in a kitchen accident, according to Joe Girardi, so he has been scratched from tomorrow’s start and the decision about who to cut from the rotation will now be delayed. A.J. Burnett will take the start tomorrow, weather permitting, because the forecast sounds bad.

[Photo Credit: Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images]

Another big start for Phil Hughes today.

1. Gardner LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Granderson CF
4. Teixeira 1B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Chavez 3B
8. Posada DH
9. Martin C

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: Frank Oscar]

And now it’s C.C. Sabathia’s turn to take his lumps. The Yankee ace struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter against the Rays on Friday night but he also gave up five solo home runs as the Rays won easily, 5-1. David Price, aided by some slick fielding, pitched a nice game.

Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez started his rehab assignment with a bang, and Yankee GM Brian Cashman defended the struggling A.J. Burnett to reporters:

“No, he’s not pitching like a No. 2 starter. He’s pitching like a quality starting pitcher in the American League, period,” Cashman said. “And if you factor in health and you take his money out of the equation people would try to trade for him for the stretch drive and feel good about it.”

This is a far cry from how Steinbrenner would have handled a similar situation. The Boss would have ripped Burnett again and again to the writers. Cashman is trying to build his pitcher up. Let’s hope it works.

Tonight gives C.C. Sabathia and David Price. That alone is worth the price of admission.

Alex Rodriguez begins a rehab assignment today and the Yanks look, once again, to gain ground on the Sox, and put some space between themselves and the Rays.

Cliff has the preview:

The Rays enter this weekend’s three-game series in the Bronx 8 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the Wild Card race and a half-game behind the Angels, who just left the Bronx having dropped two of three to the Bombers. I don’t really see either of those two seems as a significant threat to the Yankees’ chances of making the postseason. However, the Yankees and Rays do have nine games remaining against each other, so, at the moment, it is possible for the Rays to sweep their way into the Wild Card spot. A single win in this series, however, puts the Yankees in charge of the Rays’ destiny as the Yankees’ lead over the Rays would then exceed the number of games they have remaining against each other.

Thus far this season, these two teams have been pretty closely matched. The Yankees hold a slight 5-4 game advantage in the season series and have outscored the Rays by just four runs, but the Rays took four of their seven head-to-head contests in July and have since upgraded their roster by finally calling up top prospect Desmond Jennings and installing him in left field in place of the overextended Sam Fuld.

Fuld caused a sensation in April with a hot bat and circus catches, but has hit just .202/.267/.310 dating back to April 28. Jennings, long tabbed as Carl Crawford’s replacement, has hit .333/.422/.597 with eight stolen bases in 19 games since being called up in late July, a promotion that was delayed slightly by a broken finger. That’s a significant and overdue upgrade, though one that might prove to have come too late to salvage the Rays’ postseason hopes.

1. Jeter SS
2. Granderson CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Cano 2B
5. Swisher DH
6. Jones RF
7. Martin C
8. Nunez 3B
9. Gardner LF

Never mind the analysis:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

Over at Grantland, Peter Richmond asks: Why can’t Americans build arenas anymore?

Here’s his take on the new Yankee Stadium:

As a guy who spent considerable time in George Steinbrenner’s presence back when both he and I were cogent and unreasonable men (me the barbed newspaper scribe, he the pompous asshole who once called Hideki Irabu a “fat, pus-y toad”), I never expected the Yankees to look anywhere but backward with the new park. After all, this is a family that, in lockstep to George’s scarily tin-eared, tone-deaf take on himself, now runs its corporation by the family’s uncurious, unimaginative philosophy of “I haven’t a clue about vision … but can I buy the guy who everyone else thinks is good?”

So I wasn’t surprised that the new stadium, with its faux-gold façade lettering, emerged with a distinctly Gilded Age/decline-of-the-Roman Empire vibe. The first (and only) time I sat in those thousand-dollar seats behind home plate, and a comely woman who looked like a young Cameron Diaz kept sidling up to ask if I needed anything, I was wise enough to ask for nothing more exotic than shrimp cocktail.

I’ll grant you that the new one’s not a bad place to watch baseball (although annual attendance is a half-million lower than the last year in the old one). But the real problem with wrapping the new place in a retro-traditional-revivalist costume is that once you’re inside there’s not even the slightest pretense about trying to duplicate the original sensorial experience of watching a game in the old stadium, when the borough of the Bronx was part of the fabric of the team’s success. This was when you could reach out from the upper deck and touch the Buy DiNoto’s Bread sign, two stories high, painted in red, green, and white on the back of the six-story, yellow-brick apartment house on 845 Gerard Avenue; when the Ayn-Randian blue-steel screech of the no. 4 train coming to a halt at the 161st Street station wafted the sweet, industrial fragrance of railroad brake linings through the upper rows of the right-center-field bleachers.

But who can complain when the new place is packed with such sophisticated lures as a private dining room where toqued chefs serve crab roll sushi, strip loin, locavore haricots vert, and chocolate mousse?

Brian Kenny of ESPN Radio is one of the best sports talk show hosts when it comes to talking baseball. He knows the history of the game, but he also knows how to apply Sabermetric concepts in a meaningful and understandable way. So I was honored to have the opportunity to do a guest spot on the Wednesday night edition of his show. Right off the bat, Brian asked me about Jorge Posada and whether I felt he was worthy of election to the Hall of Fame. In trying to assess his case objectively, I looked at Posada’s career year by year and determined that he has put up about eight Hall of Fame seasons, based on OPS and fulltime playing status. That puts him roughly two to three seasons short of the call to Cooperstown. For those who prefer Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Posada has accumulated 44.7 of WAR for his career. That’s a respectable total, but well short of another contemporary catcher, Pudge Rodriguez, who stands at 67.2 for his career.

During the radio show, I compared Posada to Ted Simmons, another switch-hitting catcher, albeit from the decades of the 1970s and eighties. Simmons posted about ten Hall of Fame seasons, and did so in an era in which conditions were far less favorable for hitters. Simmons also had the advantage in WAR for his career, at 50.4. All things considered, Simmons’ ledger is probably sufficient to deserve entry to the Hall of Fame.

Right from the start, Simmons had a major advantage over Posada in that he arrived in the major leagues at a much earlier age. Simmons was 18 when he made his debut; Posada had to wait until he was 23. More importantly, Simmons established himself as a regular catcher by the age of 21, while Posada did not become the Yankees’ fulltime catcher until he was 27. That’s a six-year difference. So practically from Day One, Posada has had to play catch-up with his career. He did a terrific job right through last year, when he turned 39, before falling off a cliff in 2011. Barring some kind of late hitting surge this summer, Posada will likely be forced into retirement at season’s end, thereby preventing him from building up any further Hall of Fame value.

While I think that Posada is at least close to Cooperstown requirements (I mean, it wouldn’t be like putting Ron Hassey in the Hall of Fame), I suspect that the mainstream media will treat him less kindly in the Hall of Fame elections. Simmons received only three per cent of the vote in his first season on the ballot; in falling below the five per cent threshold, he fell off the ballot immediately, as the Hall of Fame rules dictate. And he hasn’t received much support from the new Veterans Committee either.

So if Simmons received such a small level of backing, Posada will likely struggle when his turn comes up for the first time in 2017. Yes, he’ll receive a boost from playing in New York and being such an important part of four world championship teams. But I don’t see him coming anywhere near the 75 per cent minimum needed for Hall of Fame selection. He’s more likely to fall somewhere in the 20 to 25 per cent range. That’s nothing to be ashamed about, but it won’t allow him to stand on the Hall of Fame stage next to Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.

Of course, none of this is pertinent to the Yankees in 2011. Posada is having his worst season, and has been so thoroughly unproductive that he has been demoted from his job as the primary DH. I believe that Joe Girardi is completely justified in making the move; if anything, Girardi gave him more games and at-bats than he deserved because of his status as one of the Yankee icons.

The demotion leaves Posada as a glorified pinch-hitter and backup first baseman, a pair of roles that will translate into little playing time. Given such insignificance, some have argued that the Yankees should just release Posada and replace him with a more versatile and useful player. Ordinarily, I would agree with such sentiment, but releasing Posada is one of those rare cases where the affect of team morale is potentially more damaging than any gain that comes from replacing him with a better bench player. In spite of his paltry power and inability to hit for average, Posada remains one of the team’s respected veterans. He is regarded highly enough by the majority of his teammates that his mere presence in the dugout and clubhouse can be justified–at least for the remainder of the regular season. Simply put, the Yankees don’t need the disruption that would occur with the unconditional release of their catcher-turned-DH.

I’m not usually one for sentimentality when it comes to the cold, hard facts of constructing the 25-man roster, but for the moment, the Yankees are playing it right with Jorge Posada…

***

Am I concerned about the recent struggles of Mariano Rivera, another of the Yankee icons? Not in the least. Yes, he had a bad week, but it has only comprised three games. The start of the slump coincided with an appearance against the Red Sox, who have historically had their way with the great closer. Rivera’s velocity remains very good; it’s just the movement of the cutter that has been subpar.

It seems to me that Rivera ran into a similar slump last year, but it ended quickly and was not a factor in the postseason. So let’s give Rivera a few more days before we decide that time has finally caught up with the Baron of the Bullpen.

I still don’t understand why Girardi did not give Rivera an extra inning on Sunday night against the Red Sox. Though he had coughed up a one-run lead, he needed only nine pitches to get through the inning. He could have easily started the tenth. Even a subpar Rivera is a better bet than Phil Hughes making his first relief appearance of the season, pitching in the frying pan of Fenway Park, and having to do so with no margin for error.

Bruce Markusen writes “Cooperstown Confidential” for The Hardball Times.

Alex Belth’s post yesterday, which highlighted Jack Curry’s stance on A.J. Burnett, ended with the word, Amen. It was an emphatic agreement of a report detailing what many Yankees fans feel at the moment. In my own post about Jorge Posada’s demise, I wondered if Joe Girardi would have the guts to pull Burnett from the rotation and give him what we might as well start calling “The Posada Treatment.”

Girardi’s dilemma is not a matter of “will he or won’t he,” it’s more “should he or shouldn’t he.” Jon DeRosa, in his recap of Wednesday night’s loss, made an interesting and salient point:

… Nova was better tonight than Burnett was last night. Burnett ran into trouble in the sixth. Nova made it to the seventh and that’s an important distinction. But the difference was not nearly as great as will be felt tomorrow.

Ivan Nova has pitched seven innings or more and let up two or fewer runs five times this year. Same as Burnett. Nova’s been better and I’d rather see him on the hill than Burnett, but it’s not as simple as Jack Curry made out … A.J. Burnett is going to be on the team for another two years after this season. The Yankees are able to marginalize Posada because his career is over in a month and a half.

No doubt, Nova has pitched better than Burnett. He’s been more consistent, more aggressive, and gotten better results. Burnett’s outings have consistently looked like the last 99 holes of competitive golf Tiger Woods has played. Talk radio hosts and fans alike are calling for his head like he’s Piggy from “Lord of the Flies”.

My question is: Is this thought process too drastic?

Consider that in the last 10 years, the Yankees have employed luminaries like Jeff Weaver, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Esteban Loaiza, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright. Now put Burnett in that context. When Joe Torre summoned Weaver to pitch in the extra innings of Game 4 of the 2003 World Series, did you trust him? Esteban Loaiza in the extra innings of Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS? How about Brown and the mutant glove he wore to protect the broken knuckle on his left hand in Game 7 of that series and Jay-vee Vazquez afterward? Or Wright in what would be a decisive Game 4 in Detroit in ’06, looking like a shell of the phenom who nearly delivered a championship to Cleveland in 1997? Joe Torre didn’t have many more, or better, options. But Burnett, even in his current, scrambled state, would be an upgrade from those other misfits.

Through all his struggles, and 2 1/2 winless Augusts, Burnett has not shied away from reporters. His willingness to be held accountable breeds respect. You won’t hear Burnett sell out his teammates and say, “They play behind me like they hate me,” like Weaver infamously did. He did pull a Kevin Brown last year, cutting his hand while hitting the plastic casing on the lineup card on the clubhouse door; so we know he’s capable of fits of idiocy that don’t involve him throwing a 57-foot curveball.

The thing is, we know Burnett is capable of succeeding in big spots. The Yankees don’t win in 2009 without his October contributions. His performance in Game 2 against the Phillies may have been the most important game of that entire season. Two other games he pitched that postseason, against the Twins and Angels — both of which resulted in Yankees losses — were not his fault. (Coincidentally, Phil Hughes, the other side of this rotation / bullpen coin, was the losing pitcher of record in those games.) Part of why it’s so infuriating to watch Burnett is because as a fan, you want to root for him, but you have a hankering feeling he’s going to disappoint you at any moment.

Buried at the bottom of Curry’s column is the following nugget:

If the Yankees took Posada’s job away from him, they should be able to take Burnett’s job away from him, too. Even if it’s a temporary move, the Yankees could tell Burnett that he’s being bypassed in the rotation for one turn to work with pitching coach Larry Rothschild to improve. The Yankees can tell Burnett that he’s important to their success, so they want to get him better now, not later.

… how Burnett fits in to the rotation isn’t a question for the future. It’s a question for the present.”

So what’s the answer? Should the Yankees keep Burnett in the rotation because the glass slippers may fall off of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia much like they did for Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small in 2005?

I’d like to see the Yankees take Curry’s suggestion and pull him for a few starts, see if he gets his head right, and then get him going for the stretch run and the playoffs. I say this because I’m still not sold on Hughes, either. A.J. Burnett has major league stuff, and it’s still in there somewhere. Burnett and Rothschild just need to work together to figure out where it is.

[Photo Credit: Fickle Feline]

When the Angels get to Toronto tonight, maybe they’ll spend some time game-planning how to pitch to the top hitter in baseball, Jose Bautista. And they’ll be smiling when they do it, because it means they no longer have to face Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano. The pair wrecked the Angels staff to the tune of six home runs and 13 RBI over this three game stretch and ensured a series victory for the Yankees over their closest competition for the Wild Card.

After Cano’s grand slam tore open a tie game in the bottom of the seventh, victory seemed sealed. Mariano came into the game in the ninth with two on and one out and Russell Branyan sent his first pitch out of the park for a three run blast. Mo mopped up from there, but it was a sour note to end a sweet day. The Yankees won 6-5.

If Curtis Granderson came out of center field to pitch the end of this game, I would not have been surprised. He wrapped himself around this series like a desperate hug. Four home runs, seven RBI, five runs scored far outwieghed the three whiffs, two double plays, six left on base and a game ending caught stealing. But for the good or the bad, he was involved.

I didn’t see Branyan’s homer, so I don’t want to comment on the quality of Mo’s outing, but I am bummed to see Mariano struggle regardless. He’ll be right sometime soon, let’s hope it’s the next time we need him.

What does it take to make someone’s nickname “official”? In terms of the Banter, I think it’s clear that David Robertson is now “the Hammer” (or the Alabama Hammer, or the Bama  Hama) and Robinson Cano is “the Ripper.”

I’d also like to submit for consideration “Grumpy” for Curtis Granderson, in one of those ironic nicknames from the past when they’d call a fat guy “Slim” or something like that.

What say you?