There is a report (in Japanese) that former Yankee pitcher Hideki Irabu is dead. It is believed that he committed suicide.

[Photo Credit: Friday 1970]

Robinson Cano has always had one of the sweetest swings in the big leagues. Even as a rookie, he was often compared to seven-time batting champion Rod Carew, but a lack of plate discipline always prevented him from reaching his full potential. In 2010, however, Cano finally put it all together. Or so it seemed. A year after establishing himself as one of the top position players in all of baseball, Cano has again taken a step back. This year, he barely ranks among the game’s best second basemen.

Top-10 Second basemen, Ranked by Average WAR

Note: AvgWAR = bWAR + fWAR/2
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

The most noticeable area in which Cano has regressed is plate discipline. In 2010, the free swinging second baseman worked a walk in 8.2% of his plate appearances, but this season, he has returned to a rate of 4.5%. Although it should be noted that 14 of his career-high 57 walks in 2010 were intentional (this year he has only received four), Cano’s overall approach in 2011 has reverted back to a relative lack of selectivity, which in turn has seemingly resulted in less production.

Looking at Cano’s plate discipline statistics can be a bit misleading. For example, in 2010, when he had his best season and highest walk rate, the All Star second baseman also swung at what was then a career-high percentage of pitches out of the strike zone. For that reason, it’s hard to confidently blame his 2011 regression on this year’s rate, which at 39.8% is even higher than last year’s. However, maybe, the issue isn’t that Cano is swinging at too many pitches out of the zone, but the count in which he is doing it?

Robinson Cano’s Plate Discipline Breakdown, 2005-2011

O-Swing%= pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone; Z-Swing% = pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone; O-Contact% =  times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; Z-Contact% = times a batter makes contact when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone; Zone% = pitches seen inside the strike zone.
Source: fangraphs.com

What jumps out most from Cano’s 2011 count-based splits is how poorly he has performed when he should be in the driver’s seat. In 134 plate appearances with the pitcher in a hole, Cano has only managed a very pedestrian line of .304/.403/.530, which equates to a situational OPS that is 5% below average. This level of underperformance is even more dramatic when you consider extreme hitter’s counts, such as after working the count to 3-0 and 3-1. In such instances, Cano has posted a sOPS+ (OPS relative to league average in the split) of 72 and -3 (!), respectively. For comparison, Cano’s 2010 sOPS+ in those counts were 109 and 137.

Robinson Cano’s Splits by Count, 2010 vs. 2011

Note: The baseline for OPS+ is 100. For example, a score of 105 is considered to be 5% above average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

In just about every count favoring the batter, Cano has underperformed last year’s output, in some instances by a dramatic margin. In fact, the All Star second baseman rates below average after working his way into every hitter’s count but 1-0 and 3-2. On the flip side, Cano has remained well above average in every pitcher’s count but 0-1. Considering his ability to make good contact on pitches off the plate, the latter isn’t much of surprise. However, Cano’s significant decline in hitter’s counts is certainly perplexing.

Based on the data above, Cano’s troubles haven’t resulted from an inability to work the count. Rather, things have gone awry once he has reached a favorable position. Without access to more granular plate discipline data, it’s hard to explain why this might be. After all, a hitter with Cano’s ability should feast on pitchers who have to throw him a strike, just as he did in 2010. However, based on observation (which, admittedly, is inherently flawed), it seems as if pitchers have been reticent to challenge Cano when behind in the count. One reason for this development could be Cano’s own reptutation, which was greatly enhanced by his MVP-caliber 2010 campaign, although the relative weakness of the hitters batting behind him in 2011 probably hasn’t helped (Yankees’ sixth place batters have hit .219/.317/.344). Whatever the reason, pitchers now seem more than happy to walk Cano. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been as willing to take it.

In order to return to the more prolific output of 2010, Cano will need to once again refine his approach at that plate. Otherwise, the Yankees will have to settle for a more muted level of production from their second baseman. Although the current incarnation of Cano is not a bad consolation prize, 2010 proved that he can be even better. Cano still has the sweet swing of Carew, but, like the Hall of Famer, can he develop more patience?

Well, it wasn’t going to last forever, was it? The M’s had to win sometime. Phil Hughes didn’t pitch poorly. He went six innings and was trailing 2-1 when the bullpen took over, the Yankee defense stumbled, and the Mariners hopped, jumped and skipped to a 9-2 win.

Tomorrow gives a day of rest then four games against the O’s this weekend.

[Photo Credit: particular particules]

It’s King Felix vs. Phil Hughes this afternoon and the smart money has the M’s ending their losing streak.

But, stranger things have happened.

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Russell Martin C
Jorge Posada 1B
Eduardo Nunez 3B

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Picture by Bags]

With one out in the seventh inning Brendan Ryan stepped up to the plate to face CC Sabathia. CC had dispatched the first 19 Mariners in order. When Ichiro buckled and flailed at a high slider before Ryan, that was the 12th Mariner to strike out. In the booth John Flaherty noticed that CC had missed a few spots in the Ichiro at-bat. He said it was the first time all night that Sabathia didn’t put the ball exactly where he wanted it.

The first pitch to Ryan was a fastball that spilled out of CC’s hand low and away. The second was a breaking ball, and like the one to Ichiro, it wasn’t tight and Ryan took it outside for ball two. CC came at the two-hole hitter with a decent challenge fastball, low, 94 MPH, and out over the plate. Ryan was sitting dead red, as he should be with a 2-0 count, and stroked it into center field for a clean single.

The groan could be heard across my neighborhood. CC Sabathia has lost a perfect game on a night he had perfect stuff.

CC applied the special secret sauce against the Mariners. Hardly fair, as just about any kind of sauce probably would have choked ’em. He may have been too unhittable to record the perfect game that seemed possible, even likely, as Mariner after Mariner drowned on his slider. CC struck out 14 in seven innings, with seven in a row at one stretch.

But maybe all those strikeouts take a toll on a pitcher? I know his pitch count was not in the danger zone when he let up the only hit of the night, but I wonder if he mixed in a few ground outs and pop outs he would have been able to close it out.

And oh yeah, it rained. The two rain delays surely threw off his rhythm, but maybe it also messed up the Mariners as well. I don’t want to complain, but it sure would be nice if this one had played out straight through and then let the hits fall where they may.

Let also not forget the opponent here. How much of CC’s performance was due the Mariners playing the worst baseball in the league for the last few weeks, we don’t know. But CC hasn’t had any trouble with anybody else lately, so I’m inclined to give most of the credit to the big man and his slider from hell.

CC’s two-plus years with the Yankees have been an absolute pleasure. The last time I wrote about him, I wondered if we’d seen a better three-year span since Guidry. We haven’t. Looking at their performance relative to the American League, in bWAR, CC has finished in the top 10 twice and is firmly entrenched a third time. Before him only a handful of Yankee greats managed that feat: Guidry, Ford twice, Reynolds, Ruffing twice, Gomez and Pennock. (Thanks to my brother Chris for crunching those numbers with me.) We know the big man is great, but it’s this constant, dependable greatness that distinguishes him.

After the hit, both of the teams realized they still had to play the rest of the game, and I think they were as disappointed as the rest of us. CC was gassed, and walked three in a row to start the eighth. With the Yankees only leading 3-0 at this point, the win was in some small peril. But the home plate umpire put his “two-rain-delay strike zone” in effect and helped David Robertson wiggle out of the jam with only one run scoring. Mariano had the benefit of the same zone in the the ninth, and that’s like widening the highway lanes for Jimmie Johnson. The Yankees won 4-1.

Fourteen strike outs for CC. Fifteen wins for the big guy. Sixteen games back in the AL West for Seattle. Seventeen losses in a row. Eighteen strike outs for the Yankees as a team. Nineteen straight Mariners sent down to start the game.

One lousy hit.

Photo by Danielle Kwateng

Tonight gives return of Eric Chavez.

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Eric Chavez 3B
Francisco Cervelli C

Our old pal C.C. is on the hill.

Never mind the hubbub (bub):

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Picture by Steven E. Hughes via Yankeegirl4ever]

Where is the chatter about the approaching trade deadline? No discussions in the lunch room, no frantic refreshing at MLB Trade Rumors. The Yankees have one of the best teams in baseball and look like a great bet to make the Postseason without major roster modification, but that’s the case almost every year and there’s usually more buzz than this.

There is a lack of big names with expiring contracts for sale. The Red Sox and Yankees, usually two of the biggest dealers during this time, have better options in their farm systems than usual. The combination of top prospects and a shallow market might make these two clubs shy away from any blockbusters. Their relative security in the standings factors as well.

The Yankees hold a big lead in the Wild Card standings, but as currently constituted, are they a viable threat to the Red Sox in either the American League East or in a short series? Which target should Yankees aim at, the Red Sox or the Wild Card?

If the Yankees want to win the Wild Card, they shouldn’t do anything crazy. They have Rafael Soriano coming off the DL to enhance the bullpen and Jesús Montero and Iván Nova in the minors to bolster the lineup and rotation. It’s doubtful they could get much better than that on the trade market that would justify the expense in both dollars and players.

But is winning the Wild Card enough? The Yankees would probably have to win a road series in Texas (which they failed to do last year) to earn the right to face Boston in their park, for a best of seven ALCS (I’m giving Boston an easy win versus the AL Central champ. Prove me wrong, AL Central champ, prove me wrong.).

The Red Sox have trashed the Yanks thus far, but as 2009 showed, that early success can be irrelevant in October. And on paper, the Yanks and Red Sox don’t appear that far apart. The Yanks currently hold the better run differential and the better Pythagorean record. The Red Sox surge back ahead in both second and third order wins, though, so if you want to find the gap, you can.

Running the risk of oversimplifying a multi-faceted calculation, the quick-and-dirty in me sees two aces on Boston’s side and only one in New York. I also see Boston’s DH making a difference while New York’s sputters and fails. The Red Sox have the better top of the rotation, the better lineup, and the better bench. I don’t think the Yankees are winning a best-of-seven series against the Red Sox without the kind of good fortune that makes myths.

So what would it take to put that series in play? The Yankees want to pair another ace with CC Sabathia and they need to get something out of DH and/or catcher. For the Yankees to stand on even ground with Boston in October, they’d need to acquire the best hitter and pitcher available.

Right now, those seem to be Ubaldo Jiménez and Carlos Beltrán. To accommodate Beltrán, the Yankees could rotate men through the DH slot and demote Jorge Posada to back-up catcher and pinch hitter. Or they could cut him. And other than CC Sabathia, I think only Bartolo Colón has proven worthy for an October start, so plenty of room for Ubaldo.

Perhaps there are other big players hovering beneath the radar, but two major acquisitions would devastate Scranton, Trenton and probably Charleston as well. They’d certainly wave goodbye to their two best prospects, Montero and Manny Banuelos. And they’d probably lose Nova and a few like him who are ready for the Majors or close to it.

Even then, the Yanks would be underdogs in Fenway, where the Red Sox are their toughest. So the return for this huge expenditure is to move from severe underdogs to close underdogs. Is that enough to justify the cost?

I don’t think it does. If the top end talent in the Yankee system can help the Yankees in the very near future, they should hold onto them. The Yankees should know these kids better than anybody else and their job at the deadline is to not only make the team better for the upcoming Postseason, but to put them in the best shape possible for years to come.

What happens at this trade deadline will be a signal of the organization’s true feelings for their big prospects. If they are dumped for something less than stellar, we’ll have to conclude the Yankees didn’t believe in them. And if they hold onto them even though it concedes a clear edge to Boston from this point forward, that should mean they expect them to graduate to beating Boston as soon as next year.

The Seattle Mariners dragged their two-country, four-state, 3000-mile, 15-game losing streak into Yankee Stadium last night in desperate need of a rainout. The rain came and the forecast was not good for the rest of the night. Amateur meteorologists looked at the radar on the Internet and figured there was no chance to play. But the clouds passed and the game happened after all. The Mariners can’t even win a rainout.

Freddy “The Chief” García got first crack at the spiraling Seattle lineup, which at least scored some runs while getting swept in Boston. He let up a few hard hit balls and was beneficiary to a couple of bad calls, but for almost eight innings, he limited the Mariners to three runs. And two of the came when this game was in the books. He allowed eight hits, but only walked one and struck out five.

The longer Freddy García keeps this up, the more secure the Wild Card and the less the Yankees need to make a big trade to lock in October baseball. If they want to win in October, however, well, maybe that’s a different story.

In the Yankees’ first inning, Mark Teixeira smashed a homerun into the second deck in left. It landed hard and bounced back onto the field. I love it when that happens. Derek Jeter found that short, flat stretch of the right field wall that he used so well in 2009 and dunked one over for a solo shot in the third.

The game blew up in the fourth. The Mariners made two errors and the first base umpire blew a second call in favor of the home team to stack the blocks. Run-scoring hits by Nuñez, Gardner, and Teixeira knocked them down. The score stood at 8-1 after the fourth and if any members of the Mariners thought they were coming back, god bless ’em.

They went down on eight pitches in the fifth and the sixth and inbetween probably called hotel room service from the dugout to request extra-fluffy pillows for a well-deserved rest.

The Yankees tacked on and the Mariners played out the string. It was nice surprise to see Derek Jeter added a triple to the homer after I went to sleep. The Yanks won 10-3, and it wasn’t that close.

***

I can’t think of the Mariners without thinking of Dave Cameron and USS Mariner. We send our best wishes and support to him as he starts his battle with Acute Myeloid Leukemia. My wife is a pediatric oncology RN and she’s running the marathon to raise money for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society. There are numerous other ways to contribute to their research and treatment of these diseases, so if you’re thinking of making a charitable contribution any time soon, this is a great place to do it.

It’s gunna rain tonight. Let’s hope they get the game in. The Mariners have lost 634 games in a row which means they’ve they’ll take two-of-three from the Yanks, right?

Cliff has the preview.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher DH
Russell Martin C
Andruw Jones RF
Eduardo Nunez 3B
Brett Gardner LF

We do the cheering:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photograph by Drew Medlin]

The Yankees led 6-2 going into the eighth inning this afternoon, Bartolo Colon having out-performed Gio Gonzalez. Robertson-Rivera and Say Goodnight Gracie, right? Except it didn’t go down like that. At least it wasn’t smoothness as usual.

David Robertson gave up back-to-back doubles to start the inning and then he walked Josh Willingham. Now, it was 6-3. He rallied to strike out David Dejesus and got Connor Jackson to pop out in foul ground and was ahead of Kurt Suzuki but couldn’t put him away as Suzuki doubled to right. One run scored but Willingham was held at third. And that was the end of Robertson’s afternoon. He walked back to the Yankee dugout and kicked bench in frustration.

Enter Sandman, on the early side. Rivera threw two pitches and got a broken bat ground ball to second. Zip, zip.

The Yanks scored a run in the bottom of the inning and led 7-4. Rivera got a got a ground out to start the ninth but then Jemel Weeks singled up the middle. Coco Crisp followed with a ground ball to Robinson Cano’s left. The Yankee second basemen reached down for it but couldn’t grab it–and even if he had, it would have been a close play at first.

Godzilla Matsui was next and he singled to right and the bases were loaded.

Rivera got ahead of Willingham 1-2 but couldn’t put him away and finally left a cutter out over the plate. Willingham hit a line drive to left that dropped in front of Brett Gardner who was playing deep. A run scored and now it was 7-5. Nail-biting time in the Bronx with Dejesus up. On the 1-1 pitch, he hit a line drive down the first base line. It was right at Mark Teixeira, who made the catch, stepped on first, and then Frank Sinatra started to sing. Mo looked up at the sky.

Final Score: Yanks 7, A’s 5.

“It’s incredible how this game is,” Rivera said to Kim Jones moments later. “You think you have control over it and you don’t.”

They say it may rain today. I say bring it on.

In the meantime: Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Picture by Karole Amooty]

Frustrating loss for the Yanks yesterday. 4-3. They got out of bases loaded jams in the sixth and in the ninth and had the tying run on base a few times, but came up short. Nick Swisher hit a long home right that bounced off the facade of the upper deck in right but the game can be summed up in the final at bat. Robinson Cano was up with Jeter at third. The count was 1-1 when Cano raised his arm to the home plate ump for time. He was too late and time was not granted. The pitch came and Cano, unsettled, swung. It happened too fast; he didn’t mean to swing. But he did and hit an easy ground ball to short for the final out.

Speaking of futility, check out this fine profile of Kei Igaway by Bill Pennington in the Times: 

The five-year saga is a story of a giant mistake of a contract and an overmatched pitcher, a huge organization digging in and a quiet, somewhat mysterious Japanese pitcher with a sense of honor and a durable love of the game. The Yankees made it pretty clear Igawa would never pitch again in the Bronx, but they were determined that he pitch somewhere for his $4-million-a-year salary. They tried to return him to Japan, too. Igawa refused to go, standing fast to his childhood dream of pitching in the American big leagues.

And so, the stalemate — remarkable, if almost entirely un-remarked upon — continues.

The Yankees let him gobble up innings before small crowds in distant outposts as a cavalcade of younger prospects push past him on their way to Yankee Stadium. Igawa never complains, and in a tribute to either willpower or lower level longevity, he has set farm system pitching records. And with just a few months left on his contract, he still dreams of the major leagues, if no longer as a Yankee.

About two weeks ago, on a rare day off, Igawa celebrated his 32nd birthday alone at his Manhattan apartment. He did not consider attending a Yankees game in the Bronx, nor did he tune them in on his television.

“I don’t watch their games anymore,” Igawa said. “I never follow them.”

Excellent piece.

On the hottest day at Yankee Stadium since 1999 the Yankees and A’s play for close to four hours. The game was almost as brutal as the weather but there is little for Yankee fans to complain about because their team put a beatin’ on the A’s to the tune of 17-7. Mark Cahill is a good pitcher, honest, but he doesn’t fair well against the Yankees and they crushed him last night. Dig the box score for the gory details.

If there was one concern for the Yanks it was that Phil Hughes didn’t pitch long enough to get the win. But Nick Swisher homered and had five RBI, and Mark Teixeira hit a grand slam. Also, Derek Jeter batted second again last night, this time with Curtis Granderson in the lineup (Grandy hit third).

It’s another scorcher out there today.

Keep hydrated and Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: Thomas Longo]

The Bombers are back home. This weekend gives the A’s of Oakland. Cliff has the Preview.

Dreaming of relief from this heatwave, we stay inside, in the a.c., and drink cool, refreshing beverages as we cheer:

Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photograph by Nekto Nektov]

With all of the focus on the Yankees’ alleged pursuit of Ubaldo Jimenez and sundry other pitchers, most of the mainstream media has lost focus on the team’s other concern: an inconsistent and hardly overpowering offense. The Yankees have not scored a ton of runs since a time from before the All-Star break–with the sorry output against James Shields on Thursday being the latest example. Very quietly, the Yankees have fallen to third in the American League in runs scored, trailing not only the Red Sox but the resurgent Rangers.

In the last 11 games, the Yankees have been held to one run four times. In another game, they scored two runs. They haven’t scored more than seven runs in any game over that stretch. And they haven’t reached double figures in runs since June 28. This ain’t a powerhouse any more.

It should be no secret that the loss of Alex Rodriguez is playing a role. A-Rod should be back within the next month, but will the Yankees be able to score enough runs to stay close to the Red Sox during the interim? Even with a small resurgence since his dreadful start, Jorge Posada is still having a terrible season; Derek Jeter remains a middle infield mediocrity; and Mark Teixeira is struggling to keep his batting average above .240. Frankly, the Yankees need some help, and it will probably have to come from within since Brian Cashman will be saving most of his trade chips for a pitcher.

Eric Chavez appears on the verge of returning from the DL, and it’s can’t come at a better time. Once he’s activated, he should immediately be made part of a third base platoon with either Eduardo Nunez (who hasn’t hit much since the A-Rod injury) or prospect Brandon Laird.

Then the Yankees should address the DH situation, where Posada and aging Andruw Jones simply aren’t cutting it. For the umpteenth time this summer, I’m calling for the promotion of Jesus Montero. Once he comes off the minor league DL, it‘s time to let him make his debut as a Yankee. (As Bill Parcells once said about one of his kickers, “It‘s time to take those Huggies off.”) For crying out loud, bring up Montero once and for all, put him in a platoon with Posada, and let him back up Russell Martin ahead of the useless, fist-pumping Francisco Cervelli. It’s beyond me why the Yankees continue to play with a 24-man roster, which is essentially what they’re doing with Cervelli.

None of this is meant to say that the Yankees should ignore their pitching concerns. They shouldn’t. But they need a boost of hitting, at least until Rodriguez returns. And they need it now…

***

As usual, there will be a nice Yankee presence in Cooperstown this weekend for the annual Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony. The Hall of Fame contingent includes plenty of pinstriped blood: Yogi Berra, Wade Boggs, Whitey Ford, Goose Gossage, Rickey Henderson, Reggie Jackson, Phil Niekro, and Dave Winfield. Plus, let’s not forget 2011 inductee Pat Gillick, who once worked for the Yankees as an executive and had extensive input on the trades that brought Willie Randolph, Mickey Rivers, and Ed Figueroa to New York.

There will be other ex-Yankees in town, too. Jim Kaat, who once honeymooned in Cooperstown, will attend Sunday’s ceremony. Favorites like Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, and Paul Blair will be signing autographs on Main Street. And others who made relatively overlooked appearances in pinstripes will also be signing, including Jesse Barfield, Bert “Campy” Campaneris, and Elliott Maddox.

Five of these six ex-Yankees have become Cooperstown regulars. The exception is Maddox, who has not visited in years. He tends to be a forgotten Yankee, having been acquired in a straight cash transaction from the Rangers, but at his peak, Maddox was one of the game’s premier defensive center fielder, a player who appeared destined to succeed Blair as the game’s premier flychaser. He had it all: loping speed, the knack for lightning quick jumps, and a powerful arm. On offense, he was a contributor, finishing fourth in the AL in on-base percentage in 1974. The Yankees thought so much of him that they moved Bobby Murcer to right field just to make room for Maddox in center.

And then Maddox had the misfortune of slipping on the wet outfield grass at Shea Stadium (which didn’t drain particularly well) and badly tearing up his knee. It happened in 1975, when the Yankees were playing out the string at Shea as they waited to move into the renovated Yankee Stadium. Maddox was never the same after the incident, for which he sued the Yankees, Mets, and anybody else he could think of, including the City of New York. He lost the suit, not to mention any chance of being a premier player.

But man, at one time, Maddox could go get them better than most, and that includes Mickey Rivers, Bernie Williams in his prime, and even Curtis Granderson. Elliott Maddox was that good.

Bruce Markusen writes “Cooperstown Confidential” for The Hardball Times.

James Shields must have liked what he saw when handed the Yankee lineup card this evening. No Arod. No Granderson. Two guys with slugging percentages over .416. A couple of tough outs for sure, but after spending his whole career in the AL East, this had to be the weakest Yankee lineup he ever faced. He had come up a loser in the last game before the All-Star break falling one to nothing in an exquisite pitcher’s duel with CC Sabathia. Tonight he turned the tables and hung the tough loss on Sabathia 2-1.

CC had to keep a clean sheet or close to it to give the weakened Yankees a chance, but Evan Longoria hammered a hanger into the left field seats in the bottom of the first. It was a slow breaking ball high in the hitting zone and might well have been screaming “hit me” as it tumbled into Longoria swing arc. I don’t know, I can’t hear my TV over the AC.

CC made a go of it over at Grover Cleveland, keeping the game in reach. But with two outs and nobody on in the fifth, he got sloppy and walked the eighth hitter Elliot Johnson. The walk looked harmless enough, but with two strikes on the ninth hitter, he tried to put him down with a slider low and away. It stayed up and in the middle and Sam Fuld smoked it into the right-field corner for a run-scoring triple.

Two bad breaking balls, two runs on the board.

The score seemed to go from 1-0 to 20-0 with that run as the Yankees couldn’t even get a man to second base from the second through the seventh. Shields put some guys on base, but squashed any hopes with his off speed stuff. A well-disguised change-up was my number one fear as a hitter, and, anecdotally anyway, the pitch I feel that gives the Yanks the most problems.

In the eighth, Derek Jeter and Robinson Canó rapped doubles to pull one of the runs back. All of a sudden those two little runs CC allowed didn’t seem so formidable. Canó’s double chased Shields and Swisher got to face Brandon Gomes with the game on the line.

One of my best coaches advised me to be ready to hit the first pitch from any relief pitcher because he’s expecting you to take and might groove a heater. That must be especially true with a patient hitter like Nick Swisher. But Gomes out-guessed the guesser and threw an 82 MPH change-up on the first pitch. Swisher thought he was all over it, but after contact he knew he was out in front. Nurtz.

Kyle Farnsworth struck out three in the ninth, though I didn’t give up hope until Granderson was retired (he pinch hit in the seventh). I thought he could handle Farnsworth’s heat, but he just fouled it back. Professor Farns eventually got him to chase a slider in the dirt.

CC Sabathia was the loser, throwing a complete game and striking out eight. He was a notch below his recent ridiculousness walking three unintentionally, but good enough to win on most nights. Hate to lose with him on the mound, but with this powerless lineup, he needed to better than he was.

The Yankees are now two full games back of Boston in the AL East and would be wise to fatten up on the upcoming home stand versus Oakland, Seattle and Baltimore. It would be nice to make up a game or two, though with the way the Sox have been going, they might have to win all ten to make up any ground.

Tonight gives a rematch of C.C. Sabathia and James Sheilds. Great as the big man is, my hunch says that C.C. will finally have a bad outing. Yeah, I know it’s his birthday. I know the Rays aren’t a good hitting team. What the hell am I talking about? Mabye the heat is getting to me.  So here’s hoping I don’t know dick and that my hunch is all kinds of wrong.

In the meantime: Let’s Go Yank-ees!

“Today is win day” is a clubhouse creed uttered before a game in which a truly elite pitcher takes the mound. This year, that slogan has certainly applied to C.C. Sabathia.

When their ace lefty toes the rubber, the Yankees are one of the most formidable teams in baseball. The team’s 16-5 record behind Sabathia is the highest winning percentage of any pitcher/team combination (minimum 100 innings) in the American League, and second in baseball to only the Phillies and Roy Halladay (16-4). Needless to say, the sight of the big man on the mound probably inspires as much confidence in the players behind him as the fans watching at home and in the stands.

The Yankees currently have the third best winning percentage in all of baseball, and trail the Phillies by only three games for the top spot, so, the team’s strength doesn’t rest solely on Sabathia’s valuable left arm. And yet, there’s no denying that when he pitches, the Yankees seem to have at least a little extra swagger. The same can also be said about the Phillies behind Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Red Sox behind Josh Beckett, and the Tigers behind Justin Verlander.

It’s hard to win with just one elite pitcher. Ask Felix Hernandez. Usually, over a long season, the best teams in baseball are the ones with the greatest depth and balance. But, what about on “win day”?  For just one game, which team can field the most formidable lineup?

In order to answer that question, a representative lineup along with one starter and closer was compiled for every team with a record above .500 (one exception was including the Reds and omitting the Mets). In order to be eligible for the lineup, a player had to reasonably qualify at a position (i.e., start a minimum of five games or be a recent call-up) and, if on the disabled list, be eligible to return before the end of the season. Also, closers were considered to be relievers with the most saves, not the highest WAR, because that’s how each respective manager would likely use their bullpen in our hypothetical one-game scenario. Although some variations could apply, below are the top lineups ranked by average WAR (bWAR and fWAR).

Top One Game Lineups Among Select Playoff Contenders

Note: AvgWAR = bWAR + fWAR/2
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

In the American League, the pecking order for one game seems to mirror what most people would consider the season ranking. The Red Sox with Josh Beckett enjoy the highest one game average WAR of 29.1, while the Yankees and Sabathia come in second at 26.7, which makes sense when you consider the Red Sox have won all three games in which those two aces have hooked up. However, it should be noted that fWAR gives the best Yankees’ lineup more credit (for an explanation about the differences between fWAR and bWAR, click here), narrowing the gap to 30 versus 29.3.

The rest of the AL falls in line behind the two East division rivals, although the Tigers with Verlander rank within one win above replacement of the Yankees when using baseball-reference.com’s calculation. On an average basis, however, the West-leading Rangers rank as the third most formidable one-game lineup in the American League. Meanwhile, the Indians are the consensus laggard, failing to top 20 WAR in both calculations.

There are more surprises in the National League. Even with Roy Halladay’s dominance, the Phillies can do no better than tie the Brewers for the best one-game lineup. While the Phillies strength is pitching, the Brew Crew is built around offense. Milwaukee’s top three position players all average a WAR over three, something no other N.L. team can claim.

The Reds, the only sub-.500 team considered, rank third in average WAR, which illustrates their lack of pitching depth. On the other end of the spectrum, the Giants, who have the lowest average WAR, enjoy one of the league’s best records. Why? Because four of the team’s starters have an average WAR of at least 2.8. Surprisingly, the Braves also rank near the bottom despite having the second best record in the National League, a discrepancy created in large part because a one-game snapshot ignores Atlanta’s bullpen depth.

Finally, it should be noted that the Diamondbacks would have also tied for the top one-game lineup if not for Stephen Drew’s season ending injury in last night’s game. Before breaking his ankle, Drew had an average WAR of 1.6, which would have boosted the Diamondbacks score to 18.8. What’s more, if you take into account Daniel Hudson’s 0.9 WAR as a hitter, Arizona actually pushes ahead of the Phillies and Brewers.

Which lineup would you choose for win day? Just because WAR picks the Red Sox doesn’t mean it’s case closed.  Some might opt for Halladay regardless of the rest of the Phillies’ lineup, while others might prefer the Yankees’ collection of All Stars. The Reds behind a hot Johnny Cueto wouldn’t be a bad selection, nor would the Tigers with Justin Verlander. Is anyone taking the Pirates? Sometimes fate plays the strongest hand.

Listed below for comparison and further discussion are the individual lineups considered in this analysis.

AL East Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

AL Central Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

AL West Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.coM

NL East Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

NL Central Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

NL West Top Lineups

Note: Data as of July 20, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

A music critic listens to the sounds of summer:

For all the hubbub of constant sound it is amazing how clearly the crack of a bat, the whoosh of a pitch (at least from the powerhouse Sabathia), and the leathery thud of the ball smothered in the catcher’s mitt cut through the textures. And if the hum of chattering provides the unbroken timeline and undulant ripple of this baseball symphony, the voices that break through from all around are like striking, if fleeting, solo instruments.

The most assertive soloists are the vendors. My favorite was a wiry man with nasal snarl of a voice who practically sang the words “Cracker Jack” as a three-note riff: two eighth notes on “Cracker,” followed by a quarter note on “Jack,” always on a falling minor third. (Using solfège syllables, think “sol, sol, mi.”) After a while I heard his voice drifting over from another section, and he had transposed his riff down exactly one step.

(Be sure to listen to the audio.)

[Photo Credit: beerhawkers.com…ah, the old place]

Congratulations to Hideki Matsui on his 500th career professional home run.

Ichiro combined for well over 3000 hits in both leagues. And now Matsui has done the same with 500 homers.

It seems clear now that Ichiro, because his batting average, speed and defense did not diminish when he came over to America will be the more revered player by historians and fans in both countries. Though for a large part of their careers, the opposite was true.

[Photo from the Merced Sun Star]