Monthly Archives: October 2012

First up gives the Tigers hosting the A’s then out to San Francisco for the Reds and Giants.

Have at it.

Let’s Go Base-ball.

[Photo Credit: Nina Zivkovic via Je Suis Perdu]

Over at ESPN, here’s Jeff MacGregor on Derek Jeter:

Jeter is our sphinx, as fixed and inscrutable as those marble lions in front of the New York Public Library.

Eighteen seasons, 3,304 hits. Who knows how many starlets. Captain Intangibles in the City of the Damned. To reasonable people from anywhere else, New York is crazy, a bughouse — an asylum, a hive, a slice of 99-cent pizza falling on a pair of $1,600 shoes. It’s bike messengers and violinists, grime and Champagne. It’s a Babel, a bad dream, a siren, a grinding of the teeth. It’s that smell. It’s horse carts and nightclubs and town cars and bridges. It’s Trump and Jay-Z, The Times and the Post, three-card monte and the stock exchange. It’s a Korean bodega in a Greek neighborhood run by 4 guys from Yemen. It’s what America used to be before focus groups got hold of it.

But New York makes sense to New Yorkers. Our cops and firefighters all look and sound like cops and firefighters, and the daily parade up and down the avenue of our actors and junkies and account executives is straight out of central casting. The ballplayers all look like ballplayers and first among them is Derek Jeter. As much a part of the mind’s skyline as the Flatiron or the Waldorf; as much a part of the tri-state subconscious as every car commercial they’ve ever bounced off your skull. Even if you hate baseball, he’s as permanent an impermanence as most New Yorkers can imagine.

The only question is for how long?

[Photo Credit: Bags]

How you expect to get your corn meal made?

[Photo Credit: Jeremy Egry via Zero]

Let Dem Playoffs Begin.

Braves-Cards are the early game. Rangers-O’s are the late one.

We’ll be watching.

Let’s Go Base-ball!

[Photo Credit: TS Flynn via It’s a Long Season]

Mike Trout should win the American League Most Valuable Player Award. His bat, glove and legs produced more runs for the Angels than any other player did for their team in 2012. And it wasn’t particularly close.

However, the decision to award Mike Trout the MVP over Miguel Cabrera is not as cut and dry as WAR-touters would have you believe. A three win bulge for Trout makes this an open and shut case to them. There are several factors that bring Cabrera back into the discussion. Unfortunately for us, many of them suck.

The Tigers made the playoffs! Fine, but the Angels won more games against much tougher competition.

Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown! Awesome, but ask the ghost of Ted Williams if the Triple Crown guarantees the MVP Award.

Miguel Cabrera has been so good for so long, he deserves an award! Players who are “so good for so long” get into the Hall of Fame. There’s no need to manufacture an MVP award they don’t deserve.

Give Trout the Rookie of the Year Award. If he’s not a fluke he can do it again next year! Yes, they will give him the ROY and no, that has nothing to do with the MVP award.

These invalid arguments may be the loudest on Cabrera’s side, and that’s a shame because there are some valid ones that we haven’t heard much of yet. I will state in advance that I don’t think these arguments cover the gap, but I do think they make it close enough that a Cabrera MVP Award would not be the miscarriage of justice that Fangraphs and other such sites will claim it is.

Games Played

Trout’s massive production came in only 139 games. Cabrera compiled his Triple Crown over 161 games. Some would argue that this is an argument for Trout, since greater than or equal to production over a shorter time necessarily implies a greater rate of impact per game. However, showing up counts. It’s not Trout’s fault that he was left in the Minors to start the season, but he wasn’t there to help the Angels as they stumbled through April.

A player in the lineup can change the result in many ways. Most commonly, by the statistics we measure and discuss all the time. But what about a game where Cabrera goes 0-4 but works the pitcher over for 20 high stress pitches? Perhaps Prince Fielder could be the benificiary of a fat pitch in one of his plate appearances as a result. How many pitching changes were made in games this year just because Miguel Cabrera loomed in the on deck circle? How many fastballs were called because Mike Trout was leading off first base? A player of this quality influences the course of the game whether he is padding his WAR total or not.

The point being that a player can generate negative WAR in a game and still impact that same game in a very positive manner by doing things that WAR does not measure. A player who is not on the roster cannot.

Or imagine the Tigers play the Angels in a four game series. Cabrera hits four home runs in the series, one in each game. Trout stays in AAA for the first three games of the series and then comes up and hits two home runs and steals two bases in the final game. Trout’s overall value may be equal to or greater than Cabrera’s especially per game, but Cabrera’s ability to impact four results is superior to Trout’s ability to impact one result.  Since each result is a discrete event, production tomorrow does nothing to address today’s game.

Cabrera was able to impact 161 games on Detroit’s schedule. That’s the most important point in his favor.

Roster Creation

Mike Trout is an excellent defensive out fielder and Miguel Cabrera is a terrible defensive third baseman. This difference goes a long way to creating the WAR gap in Trout’s favor. And it should. Trout’s superior defensive ability can and should be used to differentiate these two players. However, once we dig into the reason Miguel Cabrera is playing third base, I think we can cut him a little bit more slack than raw comparison would dictate.

I am reminded of the excellent Red Sox teams of 2003-2008. The Red Sox won two World Series and a lot of games during this period; you might have seen the pink hats. As they did this, Manny Ramirez hit a ton in the middle of their lineup and was a putrid defensive player. Manny Ramirez may have been better served as a DH. But the Red Sox certainly would not have been better served, because they already had David Ortiz there. The Red Sox paired two of the best hitters of the generation and rode them to glory. Manny Ramirez’s ability to put a glove on his hand and stand in front of the Green Monster was essential to this plan. Yes, his poor play out there cost the Red Sox some runs and should count against him in our analysis of him as a player. But looking at the team overall, and what they accomplished and why, mitigates some of those negatives.

The Tigers, as the A’s are no doubt shaking about right now, have a similar pair of hitters. The only reason Prince Fielder is on the team is because Miguel Cabrera can put a glove on his hand and stand next to third base. When we look at all the runs that Miguel Cabrera’s poor defense cost the Tigers this year, we should also ask if the Tigers would have done it any other way. When a player would have been better off individually playing one position, but made a move which enabled the team as a whole to be better (or to pursue the course of action which the team envisioned would give them the best chance to win, regardless of outcome) we should not hold the totality of his negative defensive value against him.

Trout’s a better defensive player than Cabrera. That should go into the discussion. But if we just say Trout is+X and Cabrera is -Y, that’s not fair either.

September

As the races tightened in September, Miguel Cabrera had an insane month and Mike Trout had a good one. From September 1st to the day the Angels were eliminated from the playoffs, Trout hit .283/.397/.500. From September 1st until the day they clinched the Central, Cabrera hit .330/.395/.688 (and Fielder, on the team because of Cabrera’s flexibility, hit .308/.410/.567).

If we think of a baseball game, the late innings are more important than the early innings because there is less time to make up for any changes in the score. Leverage of the late innings is higher than leverage of the early innings, and this is why Mariano Rivera should pitch the late innings of the closest games. The same goes for a season. The games in September have higher leverage attached to them than those games in April because there is less time to make up any changes in the standings. So we do have to give Cabrera a little bump for his late season heroics. Not because of the result (see above) but because of the timing of his individual contribution.

I have read a lot arguments saying that production in April counts as much as production in September and that giving Cabrera credit for his strong finish isn’t warranted. To that I say bringing up April hurts Trout much more than September. I’ll give Cabrera some credit for producing so much in September, but in my mind that’s a much smaller bump than the other factors above.

We started out talking about a 10.4 WAR player versus a 7.2 WAR player. To keep the discussion in the same units of measure, I’d say this more like a debate bewteen a 10 WAR player and an 8 WAR player.  I ding Trout a little bit for missing too much of the Angels schedule and I give Cabrera a little bit of a break for playing third base so poorly because it enables Prince Fielder to be a Tiger. I’d still vote for Trout, but it’s close enough to bring up the topic to the guy on the barstool  next to yours.

Another one bites the dust. Had some good memories in that place.

Smitten Kitchen gives us spaghetti with broccoli cream pesto. Sure, why the hell not?

I got to have it.

[Photo Via: Eye of the Beholder]

Street scene from This Isn’t Happiness.

The so-called “experts” at Sports on Earth deliver their playoff predictions.  And here’s the ESPN think tank.

Over at SI.com, Jay Jaffe tackles the question: Does momentum matter going into the playoffs?

Thanks to the new dual wild card format, 10 teams have a chance at making it to the World Series. Of course, by late Friday evening, two clubs will already be making plans for next season. In any event, listed below is a breakdown of the playoff history for each team who will be vying for the 2012 MLB championship.

Historical Post Season Records

Source: Baseball-reference.com

From a historical perspective, this postseason resembles a roundup of the usual suspects. Five of the top six franchises in terms of playoff appearances are represented this October, including the Yankees, who will be making their 51st run at a championship. Among teams who entered the season with 20 or more playoff appearances, only the Dodgers and Red Sox failed to join the party. In addition to being long time October combatants, most of these postseason regulars have also been recent participants, with all but the Athletics having made a prior playoff appearance within the last two years.

Grouped together in the middle of the October roll call are the Tigers, Reds, and Orioles, three teams that have had varying degrees of more limited playoff exposure. Although Detroit has only made the postseason in three of the past 25 years, this season marks the first consecutive playoff appearance since 1935, when Charlie Gehringer and Hank Greenberg lead the Tigers to the championship. Cincinnati’s N.L. Central crown marks the franchise’s fourth October appearance since the last days of the Big Red Machine in 1979, but the team can boast two division titles in the last four years. Finally, the Orioles are not only making their first playoff appearance in 15 years, but also coming off their first winning regular season over the same span.

At the bottom of the totem pole is the Nationals, who are making only the second playoff appearance in franchise history and first since the strike shortened 1981 season when the team played in Montreal. What’s more, Washington D.C. will be hosting playoff baseball for the first time since the 1933 World Series.

The Texas Rangers contributed to Washington’s thirst for October baseball when the team played as the Senators from 1961 to 1971. Since its inception, the franchise has now made the playoffs only six times, but this year marks the third consecutive season of October action in Arlington. Of course, after blowing a big division lead, the two-time defending A.L. champs may not feel as is they’ve made the postseason until (and if) they advance to the ALDS against the Yankees.

Longest Championship Droughts, By Team (30 Years or Longer)
 

Source: baseball-reference.com

There are several intriguing World Series match-ups that could result from the field of playoff participants. The Yankees versus Cardinals would feature a showdown between each league’s most successful franchise, while a match-up between the Yankees and Giants would provide a historical nod to the glory days of baseball in New York. If the Nationals and Rangers square off, it would ensure the first championship for one of the franchises. Between them, the two teams currently have 92 fruitless seasons (only three Fall Classics have featured two teams with a longer combined dry spell), so if they meet in the World Series, one of the longest current droughts would come to an end. The Nationals versus Orioles would constitute a very unlikely “Battle of the Beltway”, while the Athletics and Giants would reprise the “BART Series”. However it shakes out, if October turns out to be as exciting as September, baseball fans are in for quite a treat.

[Featured Image: Ed Zurga/Getty Images North America]

This speaks to me. From Isaac Chotiner’s 2008 Atlantic interview with Jhumpa Lahiri:

One critic who reviewed your first book said that your prose is extremely un-self-conscious and not showy. Without making a judgment on that, do you think he was correct?

I like it to be plain. It appeals to me more. There’s form and there’s function and I have never been a fan of just form. My husband and I always have this argument because we go shopping for furniture and he always looks at chairs that are spectacular and beautiful and unusual, and I never want to get a chair if it isn’t comfortable. I don’t want to sit around and have my language just be beautiful. If you read Nabokov, who I love, the language is beautiful but it also makes the story and is an integral part of the story. Even now in my own work, I just want to get it less—get it plainer. When I rework things I try to get it as simple as I can.

Do you have any desire to write a huge, panoramic novel?

I don’t think so. I don’t think I’m an effusive writer. My writing tends not to expand but to contract. If I do write more novels, I think they’ll be more streamlined and concentrated.

That fits into what you were saying about your prose style, right?

Maybe. Yes. I don’t like excess. When a great sweeping work is great, what makes it great is that there’s no excess.

[Photo Credit: Camille Van Horne]

Over at Grantland here’s Jonah Keri on why Mike Trout is the AL MVP and not Miguel Cabrera. That said, Bobby Valentine has a better chance of keeping his job than Trout does of winning the MVP.

[Photo Credit: Jeff Gross/Getty Images]

Drawing by Adrian Tomine via This Isn’t Happiness.

It’s always fun when you see a dance crew on the train–so long as a flying foot doesn’t clip you by accident.

[Photo Credit: Humans of New York]

Next time you’re in Iceland…

Food 52 reminds us how to keep all our fingers intact for root vegetable season.

[Photo Credit: Tasteinspired’s blog]

Yanks make the playoffs, win the division and secure the best record in the American League? Fug it, Dude, let’s dance.

[Photo Credit: Annett Turki via Kitty en classe]

10/2 11:48 PM
Alex Belth:

Holy shit that was great.

Hey, I don’t mean to be greedy but in name of superstition and not fucking with a good thing if you are available to recap tomorrow’s game that’d be awesome. If not, totally understand and no problemo.

10/3 8:35 AM
Jon DeRosa:

I can do it.

That was probably the most calm extra inning Red Sox game I’ve ever experienced. I just never felt like they were a threat to score.

10/3 8:55 AM
Alex:

I wish I could have felt the same.

Dude, such a HUGE game for our man Hiroki tonight. I want so badly for him to do well.

10/3 9:02 AM
Jon:

Not to jinx him, and he might be a little gassed right now, but he’s going to rip through these guys pretty easily. They really have few decent hitters in that lineup. And the Yankees are going to destroy whatever comes their way.

This is going to be an 8-1, 9-2 type game like Monday.

10/3 9:28 AM
Alex:

That would make me very happy.

***

I had one of those nights tonight. Laundry and the Yankee game is a full slate at this time of year. A visit from the sore throat fairy, weird and time consuming things happening with credit cards, and then to top it all off, at 9:30 PM my wife gets an email that her very important 8:30 AM flight (she’s presenting at a conference) has been cancelled and she’s been rebooked to Friday. All the turmoil and panic floating around here, and not one ounce caused by the Yankees.

After a season on the brink, the Yankees gave us one night off. And it was glorious. Take a couple of days now and watch the Orioles and the Rangers in Stress Fest 2012, ie the Wild Card game. There sure was a lot of stress involved trying to avoid the stress of that game.

Another 95 win team. Another American League East Division crown. We’ve criticized this team more than most other Division champions, and often deservedly so, but there were times when they deserved more praise than we gave them I think. Like we were holding it back because we weren’t really sure how good they were. Turns out they were pretty damn good.

Top Photo via AP/ Frank Franklin II, Bottom Photo via Getty Images / Al Bello 

From Chad Jennings comes this from Hiroki Kuroda today:

“To be honest with you, I never enjoyed playing baseball,” Hiroki Kuroda said. “I never enjoyed pitching, to be honest with you. Whether it’s a spring training game or a regular-season game, I like to put a certain amount of pressure on myself to be as normal as I can, even in that kind of atmosphere.”

…“I’m not saying this because I’m with the Yankees,” Kuroda said. “This has been all throughout my professional career. There’s a lot of responsibility as a starting pitcher, so rather than enjoy myself out there, I feel that I must fulfill my responsibility and that’s my priority.”

Kuroda pitched in the playoffs for the Dodgers so it’s probably an exaggeration to call this the biggest game of his career but it is his most crucial start in pinstripes.

Derek Jeter SS
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Curtis Granderson CF
Raul Ibanez DH
Russell Martin C

Never mind the raindrops or the bollocks: Let’s Go Yank-ees!

[Photo Credit: The Absolute Best Photography]