The Twins in a nutshell: average offense, average rotation, excellent defense and bullpen.

The offense is three-tiered, with the MVP-quality performances of Joe Mauer (.389/.465/.648) and Justin Morneau (.323/.399/.601, 21 homers, 69 RBIs) on top, the similarly alliterative Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Crede, and, uhm, Denard Span at or above league average in the middle, and the punchless skill positions of shortstop, second base, and center field (currently occupied by Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, and Carlos Gomez, respectively) dragging things down from below.

The manner in which the Twins are punting offense at those three skill positions is a throwback to the days when teams couldn’t really expect to get much production from their middle infielders, which is to say, it’s outdated and inappropriate to competing in the DH league in 2009. The Twins are at least getting elite defense from Gomez in center and Punto at second base, but Harris is a complete dud on both sides of the ball, which underlines just how poorly Alexi Casilla (.180/.242/.225 and since demoted to the minors) and Matt Tolbert (.184/.275/.232 and benched) had to perform in order for Harris to make his way back into the lineup.

The presence of Harris in the lineup while Delmon Young rides pine behind Cuddyer, Kubel, Span, and Gomez underlines just how much the Matt Garza trade has blown up in the Twins’ faces. Young has now hit .285/.326/.392 in 204 games as a Twin and is well south of that overall mark this season. Meanwhile, Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett is headed to the All-Star Game on the strength of two and a half flukey months of hot hitting. Bartlett’s bat will come back to earth, but his glove will continue to outshine Harris’s. Meanwhile, Matt Garza helped the Rays reach the World Series last year as the ALCS MVP.

The Twins aren’t hurting for starting pitching. Their rotation of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, and Glen Perkins is comprised entirely of home grown pitchers 27-years-old or younger and includes two lefties (Liriano and Perkins). They have so much home-grown pitching that even their injury replacements come from the farm, as is the case with 23-year-old Anthony Swarzak, who will start for the injured Slowey on Thursday. Still, Garza was likely the best of their bunch given Liriano’s disappointing post-Tommy John performance, and while they tried to deal from that strength to correct a weakness, all they managed to do was create an additional weakness at shortstop. Young is just 23, leaving open the possibility of significant improvement, but he’s heading in the wrong direction for the Twins to hope for a way to salvage that trade.

The Johan Santana trade isn’t looking much better, though that comes as less of a surprise given the lack of bargaining power the Twins had and their rejection of superior offers from the Yankees and Red Sox. Like Young, Gomez is just 23, but he’s never shown any ability to hit in the majors. Most agreed that the Mets rushed him in 2007 due to injury-created need and that the Twins needed to give him more development time in the minors, but Gomez hasn’t spent a day in the minors since joining the organization. He might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but that doesn’t make up for his .250/.293/.353 line in 225 games as a Twin.

As for the three minor league right-handers included in that deal, Phil Humber was designated for assignment earlier this year, Kevin Mulvey has been solid but ordinary as a 24-year-old righty in Triple-A this year (4.17 ERA) and is trapped behind the aforementioned home grown starters, and Deolis Guerra has yet to impress in his third full-season in the Florida State League (though he is just 20).

The Yankees swept the Twins in a memorable four-game series in the Bronx in mid-May. The first three wins were all walkoffs, two of them coming in extra-innings. The difference in the entire series was five runs. Since then, the Twins have dropped two of the losing pitchers, letting the A’s claim lefty Craig Breslow off waivers and demoting Jesse Crain to Triple-A. You can bet the Twins remember that series all too well and will come out with some extra fire for this week’s three-game set in the Homer Dome.

Things kick off tonight with a battle of aces. Scott Baker doesn’t lead the twins in any major pitching category, but his 1.41 WHIP and 4.11 K/9 add up to make the 27-year-old righty their best starter despite his 4.99 ERA and .500 record. Indeed, Baker fell one inning short of his sixth-straight quality start in his last outing, but still held the Royals to one run over five inefficient frames. Over those last six starts, Baker is 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 4.38 K/BB. Much to my surprise, Baker hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2006, when he beat them twice.

CC Sabathia takes the hill for the Yankees. CC’s coming off a disappointing outing in which he couldn’t locate his pitches yet still struck out eight Mariners in 5 2/3 innings. Two starts prior to that, he was pulled in the second inning due to tightness in his bicep. Otherwise, he lasted a minimum of seven innings in each of his other nine starts since May 8, going 6-1 with a 2.75 ERA in those outings and only passing 113 pitches once (tellingly in the one loss).

Francisco Cervelli catches CC yet again tonight. Brett Gardner roams center. Hideki Matsui hits fifth behind Alex Rodriguez with Nick Swisher batting sixth and Robinson Cano dropping to seventh ahead of Gardner and Cervelli.

Finally, this series marks the Yankees last trip to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome barring an only moderately unlikely postseason matchup. Good ridance, I say. I’m happy to have the place confined to my 1987 World Series box set, bringing us one step closer to the end of Astroturf and indoor stadiums in baseball.

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It hasn’t been pretty, or even all that encouraging given the injury to Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain’s  first major league disaster start, but the Yankees are on the verge of sweeping this unusual wrap-around series of day games against the Blue Jays. I was going to title my series preview, “Toronto Blue Jays: You Ain’t So Tough,” but I didn’t want to jinx anything. With three games in the bag, however, I figure there’s no harm now.

Then again, if the Yankees thought they took care of the hard part by out-lasting Roy Halladay on Saturday, they likely failed to notice that this afternoon’s starter, former first-round pick Ricky Romero, enters today’s game with a 20-inning scoreless streak and a 1.91 ERA over his last six starts. Romero completed at least seven innings in five of those starts, all of the Toronto wins. In the exception, Romero lasted just 6 1/3 and the Jays lost 1-0.

Romero faces fellow lefty Andy Pettitte, who is coming off his best home start of the season, a seven-inning, two-run, 98-pitch gem against the weak-hitting Mariners. Andy beat the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre earlier this year, but needed 106 pitches to get through six and walked four. He’ll have to do better than that to beat Romero this afternoon and deliver the sweep.

Eric Hinske makes his Yankee debut in right field today as Nick Swisher plays first and Mark Teixeira gets a half day off at DH. Hinske can’t hit lefties, so Joe Girardi has set him up to fail in his debut in front of the home crowd. Good job, Joe. Johnny Damon gets a full day off as Melky plays left, giving the Yankees a bottom three of Cabrera, Hinske, and Brett Gardner.

I said my piece on the Blue Jays’ hot start on SI.com when the Yankees were in Toronto in mid-May, so let’s see how things have changed since then.

Entering their series with the Yankees on May 12, the Blue Jays were 22-12 (.647), the best record in the American League at the time. Since then, they’ve gone 20-26 (.435) and fallen back to their expected place as the fourth-best team in the AL East.

At the time, I pointed to the unexpected health of the Jays’ starting nine as one reason for their early-season success, saying “Injury seems sure to strike the offense at some point, and several of the team’s batting averages, including [Aaron] Hill’s .346, catcher Rod Barajas’ .307 and platoon left fielder/utilityman Jose Bautista’s .311 seem sure to regress.”

The starting nine has stayed healthy, but Hill has lost 45 points off his average, Barajas has shed 40 points, and Bautista has lost 57. Hill was the Jays’ best hitter in the early going, but since going 2-for-4 with a homer in the first game against the Yankees on May 12, he’s hit just .255/.294/.452. Barajas has hit .228/.267/.378 since the start of the Yankees series; Bautista .191/.353/.309.

Scott Rolen, on the other hand, is hitting like he did before his shoulder problems derailed his path to the Hall of Fame. Rolen went 6-for-11 with three doubles against the Yankees and has hit .341/.405/.508 since, though with just six homers on the season. Accordingly, Cito Gaston has moved him back to the cleanup spot after having demoted him from that spot upon taking over for John Gibbons last June. Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay have also maintained their hot starts, the latter by virtue of not having to face left-handed pitching thanks to the presence of platoon partner and Yankee killer Kevin Millar. Marco Scutaro has come back to earth a bit, but has hit a still-respectable (for a fine fielding shortstop) .290/.364/.403 since the Yankee series and still leads the league in walks (though Nick Swisher is in hot pursuit).

On the flip side, Alex Rios and rookie slugger Travis Snider weren’t hitting in mid-May, and they’re still not. Rios, another Yankee killer, still managed to go 4-for-10 with a double and a homer against the Yankees in May, but has hit just .256/.311/.421 since. Snider was demoted to Triple-A then aggravated an old back injury and has since been replaced by former Yankee David Dellucci, who was released by the Indians at the end of May and signed a minor league deal with the Tribe. Dellucci was just called up this morning.

As for the pitching, I raised red flags about the unsustainably low opponents’ batting averages on balls in play being recorded by starters Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet, and relievers Jason Frasor, Jesse Carlson, and Bill Murphy. Richmond, who starts Sunday, was bounced by Yankees in the second inning on May 13, but rebounded with seven shutout innings against the White Sox and has posted a 3.18 since his Yankee disaster. His season BABIP has actually dropped a point over that stretch. Similarly, Tallet, who starts this afternoon, has been solid with a 4.30 ERA over his last nine starts while his BABIP has also shifted just one point (up to .228).

The rotation suffered from Roy Halladay’s DL stay, but Halladay is back and will pitch on Saturday, still leading the majors with ten wins. Meanwhile, the return of former first-round pick Ricky Romero has further solidified the rotation. Romero will bring a 20-inning scoreless streak into Monday’s game and has posted a 1.91 ERA in six starts since the calendar flipped to June.

As for those relievers, Frasor’s BABIP has increased by 54 points, but that hasn’t hurt his bottom line much. Carlson’s BABIP has increased 85 points, as has shown up in his performance as he’s posted a 7.32 ERA since the start of the Yankee series. Murphy was optioned to Triple-A right after the Yankees left town.

The man Murphy made room for was B.J. Ryan, who has posted a 3.14 ERA since coming off the DL, but with more walks than strikeouts and without a single save opportunity. Those opportunities were going to Scott Downs, but he’s replaced Ryan on the DL, leaving the closing duties to Frasor and his tight-rope act and 2007 closer Jeremy Accardo, who started the year in Triple-A after a forearm injury ended his 2008 campaign prematurely.

All of that adds up to . . . well, the fourth-best team in the AL East, just like everyone thought.

A.J. Burnett faces Tallet today in the first game of an unusual, wrap-around, Independence Day weekend series in which all four games will start at 1:05pm. Burnett gave up five runs in 7 2/3 innings to his former team on May 12, but has been nails in his last three starts posting this line: 20 1/3 IP, 10 H, 2 R (1 ER), 10 BB, 26 K, 0.98 WHIP, 0.44 ERA. Amazingly, A.J. lost one of those three starts, having matched up against the ace of his other former team, Josh Johnson of the Marlins.

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The Yanks have won their last six games by a combined score of 45-19. Tonight they have a match-up of veteran lefties as Andy Pettitte takes on the Mariners’ Jarrod Washburn. The 34-year-old Washburn is having his best season as a Mariner and has turned in a quality start in ten of his 14 outings, including his last two against the dreggs of the NL West. The 37-year-old Pettitte has been all over the map, lasting just 3 2/3 innings his last time out in Atlanta after pitching a gem in Miami the turn before.

Joe Girardi drops Robinson Cano a spot against the lefty, puts Melky in center, and gives Alex Rodriguez a half-day off at DH with Cody Ransom drawing the start at third base. Eric Hinske is in the house and could pinch-hit for Ransom against a righty late in the game. Ramiro Peña is off to make his Triple-A debut for Scranton.

Seattle Mariners

2009 Record: 39-36 (.520)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 36-39 (.480)

2008 Record: 61-101 (.377)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (.414)

Manager: Don Wakamatsu
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Safeco Field (96/97)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Russell Branyan replaces Raul Ibañez
• Ken Griffey Jr. replaces Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro
• Franklin Gutierrez replaces Jeremy Reed and Willie Bloomquist
• Rob Johnson (minors) replaces Jeff Clement (minors)
• Chris Woodward is filling in for Adrian Beltre (DL)
• Ronny Cedeño is filling in for Yuniesky Betancourt (DL)
• Mike Sweeney replaces Bryan LaHair (minors)
• Josh Wilson replaces Miguel Cairo
• Mike Carp replaces Willie Bloomquist
• Ryan Langerhans replaces Brad Wilkerson and others
• Garrett Olson is filling in for Erik Bedard (DL)
• Jason Vargas is filling in for Carlos Silva (DL)
• Brandon Morrow is taking over the starts of Ryan Feierabend (DL) and R.A. Dickey
• David Aardsma replaces J.J. Putz
• Sean White replaces Sean Green
• Chris Jakubauskas replaces Rowland-Smith’s relief innings

25-man Roster:

1B – Russell Branyan (L)
2B – Jose Lopez (R)
SS – Ronny Cedeño (R)
3B – Chris Woodward (R)
C – Kenji Johjima (R)
RF – Ichiro Suzuki (L)
CF – Franklin Gutierrez (R)
LF – Wladimir Balentien (R)
DH – Ken Griffey Jr. (L)

Bench:

R – Mike Sweeney (1B)
R – Josh Wilson (IF)
L – Mike Carp (1B/OF)
L – Ryan Langerhans (OF)
R – Rob Johnson (C)

Rotation:

R – Felix Hernandez
L – Garrett Olson
R – Brandon Morrow
L – Jarrod Washburn
L – Jason Vargas

Bullpen:

R – David Aardsma
R – Mark Lowe
R – Miguel Batista
R – Sean White
R – Chris Jakubauskas
R – Roy Corcoran

15-day DL: 3B – Adrian Beltre (bone spurs in shoulder), SS – Yuniesky Betancourt (hamstring), LHP – Erik Bedard (shoulder inflammation), RHP – Shawn Kelley (oblique strain)

60-day DL: LF – Endy Chavez (ACL), RHP – Carlos Silva (labrum, rotator cuff), LHP Cesar Jimenez (shoulder and biceps tendonitis), LHP – Ryan Feierabend (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
L – Russell Branyan (1B)
L – Ken Griffey Jr. (DH)
R – Jose Lopez (2B)
R – Franklin Gutierrez (CF)
R – Kenji Johjima (C)
R – Wladimir Balentein (LF)
R – Ronny Cedeño (SS)
R – Chris Woodward (3B)

(more…)

The Yankees were lucky to take two of three from the Mets two weekends ago. Literally. Only Luis Castillo dropping a pop up in the first game—one of the flukiest plays I’ve ever seen giving the fact that it turned the last out of a Mets win into the last play of a Yankee win in the course of the ball falling six feet to the ground—prevented the Mets from winning that series.

Since then, the Mets have gone 5-5 and added Carlos Beltran to their list of key players on the DL (along with Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez and J.J. Putz). That means more major league exposure for 20-year-old top prospect Fernando Martinez, who enters the series on an 0-for-14 bender and is hitting .167 on the season. It ain’t pretty, but it should make Mets fans appreciate the .336/.425/.527 line Beltran put up before hitting the DL.

Tonight the Mets send 25-year-old sophomore groundballer Mike Pelfrey to the hill tonight. Pelfrey had a great run of seven starts from late April through the end of May in which he posted a 2.96 ERA while the Mets went 6-1, but he’s been unimpressive since, even tossing out his stinker against the Pirates on June 4.

The Yankees counter with CC Sabathai, who left his last start in the second inning with discomfort in his left bicep, but has reported no further problems since. The injury interrupted a streak of eight-straight games in which he completed seven innings. Sabathia was 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA over that stretch. The Yankees noticed Sabathia was hurting his last time out because he wasn’t finishing his pitches and was leaving everything up. Look out for that in the early going today.

Melky Cabrera, who missed yesterday’s game with the flu, is in right field tonight as Nick Swisher takes a seat. Brett Gardner, who has hit .342/.432/.513 since May 13, seems to be winning the center field job back. Francisco Cervelli, who hit his first major league homer on Wednesday night, will catch Sabathia for the seventh time this season.

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Atlanta Braves

2009 Record: 33-36 (.478)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 33-36 (.478)

2008 Record: 72-90 (.444)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 79-83 (.488)

Manager: Bobby Cox
General Manager: Frank Wren

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Turner Field (99/99)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Casey Kotchman replaces Mark Teixeira
• Nate McLouth replaces Mark Kotsay
• Garret Anderson replaces most of Gregor Blanco (bench)
• Matt Diaz reclaims playing time from Josh Anderson
• Diory Hernandez is filling in for Omar Infante (DL)
• David Ross replaces Corky Miller, Clint Sammons (minors), and Brayan Peña
• Derek Lowe replaces Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton
• Javier Vazquez replaces Tim Hudson (DL) and Chuck James
• Kenshin Kawakami replaces Jorge Campillo (DL) and James Parr (minors)
• Tommy Hanson replaces Jo-Jo Reyes (DL) and John Smoltz
• Eric O’Flaherty replaces Will Ohman
• Mike Gonzalez reclaims his innings from Vladimir Nuñez
• Rafael Soriano reclaims his innings from Julian Tavarez and Jorge Julio
• Peter Moylan reclaims his innings from Blaine Boyer
• Kris Medlen is filling in for Buddy Carlyle (DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Casey Kotchman (L)
2B – Kelly Johnson (L)
SS – Yunel Escobar (R)
3B – Chipper Jones (S)
C – Brian McCann (L)
RF – Jeff Francoeur (R)
CF – Nate McLouth (L)
LF – Garret Anderson (L)

Bench:

R – Matt Diaz (LF)
R – Martin Prado (UT)
L – Gregor Blanco (CF)
R -Diory Hernandez (IF)
R – David Ross (C)

Rotation:

R – Derek Lowe
R – Jair Jurrjens
R – Javier Vazquez
R – Tommy Hanson
R – Kenshin Kawakami

Bullpen:

L – Mike Gonzalez
R – Rafael Soriano
R – Jeff Bennett
L – Eric O’Flaherty
R – Peter Moylan
R – Manny Acosta
R – Kris Medlen

15-day DL: PH – Greg Norton (hamstring), UT – Omar Infante (broken hand), LHP – Jo-Jo Reyes (hamstring), RHP – Buddy Carlyle (upper back strain/Type-1 diabetes)

60-day DL: RHP – Tim Hudson (TJ), RHP – Jorge Campillo (shoulder tendonitis)

Typical Lineup:

L – Nate McLouth (CF)
R – Yunel Escobar (SS)
S – Chipper Jones (3B)
L – Brian McCann (C)
L – Garret Anderson (LF)
L – Casey Kotchman (1B)
R – Jeff Francoeur (RF)
L – Kelly Johnson (2B)

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Josh Johnson, who starts for the Marlins tonight, had an impressive rookie season under then-Marlins manager Joe Girardi in 2006. After working out of the bullpen in April, Johnson moved to the rotation in May and went 11-5 with a 3.14 ERA in his first 23 starts. Then, on September 12 of that year, Johnson’s start against the Mets was interrupted by an 82-minute rain delay, after which Girardi left the then-22-year-old right-hander in the game. Soon after, he developed elbow soreness. Johnson didn’t pitch for the Marlins again until mid-June of 2007, but after four starts, he was back on the DL and headed for Tommy John surgery.

Johnson finally returned to the Florida rotation last July and went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA over the remainder of the season. Now 25, he enters tonight’s game against Girardi’s Yankees with a 6-1 record and 2.76 ERA on the season. The forecast calls for rain.

Johnson has been flat-out awesome this season. All but two of his starts have been quality starts. The Marlins are 11-3 when he takes the mound. His only two hiccups this season were a six-run outing against the Nationals back on April 18 and a four-inning outing against the Brewers on May 19 in which he held Milwaukee to two earned runs on three hits but walked five and left early due to a twinge in his pitching shoulder. Since then, he’s turned in six quality starts in six tries and completed at least seven innings in each of his last five starts, going the distance for the win over Toronto his last time out.

The Yankees counter with former Marlin A.J. Burnett, who was briefly a teammate of Johnson’s in 2005 (in fact, Johnson and Jeremy Hermida are the only remaining Marlins from that 2005 team and both were September call-ups that year). Burnett rebounded nicely from his failure in Boston his last time out, holding the Mets scoreless over seven innings while striking out eight. That was his seventh quality start in 13 tries for the Yankees. Burnett has put up consecutive quality starts just twice this season, once doing so by facing the same team, the Texas Rangers, in consecutive starts. A.J. has never faced the Marlins before, but he does have a career 3.20 ERA in Mrs. Arrllssberg Stadium.

Jorge Posada will catch Burnett tonight. Angel Berroa’s back at third base as the lineup repeats last night’s. Emilio Bonafacio is back at third for the Fish and hitting second.

Florida Marlins

2009 Record: 33-35 (.485)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 31-37 (.456)

2008 Record: 84-77 (.522)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 81-80 (.503)

Manager: Fredi Gonzalez
General Manager: Michael Hill

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Dolphin Stadium (99/99)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Emilio Bonifacio replaces Mike Jacobs
• Chris Coughlan replaces Josh Willingham
• Ross Gload and Brett Carroll replace Luis Gonzalez
• Ronny Paulino replaces Matt Treanor
• Alejandro De Aza is filling in for Alfredo Amezaga (DL)
• Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad inherit the starts of Scott Olsen
• Sean West is filling in for Anibal Sanchez (DL), who inherits the starts of Mark Hendrickson
• Leo Nuñez replaces Kevin Gregg
• Dan Meyer, Kiko Calero, and Brian Sanches replace Doug Waechter, Joe Nelson, and Logan Kensing
• Cristhian Martinez is filling in for Renyel Pinto (DL)

25-man Roster:

1B – Jorge Cantu (R)
2B – Dan Uggla (R)
SS – Hanley Ramirez (R)
3B – Emilio Bonifacio (S)
C – John Baker (L)
RF – Jeremy Hermida (L)
CF – Cody Ross (R)
LF – Chris Coughlan (L)

Bench:

L – Ross Gload (1B)
R – Wes Helms (3B)
L – Alejadro De Aza (OF)
R – Ronny Paulino (C)
R – Brett Carroll (OF)

Rotation:

R – Josh Johnson
R – Chris Volstad
L – Andrew Miller
R – Ricky Nolasco
L – Sean West

Bullpen:

R – Matthew Lindstrom
R – Leo Nuñez
L – Dan Meyer
R – Kiko Calero
R – Burke Badenhop
R – Brian Sanches
R – Cristhian Martinez

15-day DL: CF/UT – Alfredo Amezaga (knee contusion); RHP – Anibal Sanchez (shoulder sprain), LHP Renyel Pinto (elbow inflammation)

60-day DL: RHP – Scott Proctor (Joe Torre surgery), LHP – Dave Davidson (shoulder)

Typical Lineup:

L – Chris Coghlan (LF)
S – Emilio Bonifacio (3B)
R – Hanley Ramirez (SS)
R – Jorge Cantu (1B)
L – Jeremy Hermida (RF)
R – Dan Uggla (2B)
L – John Baker (C)
R – Cody Ross (CF)

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The Yankees are going to try to get today’s game in despite the rain. I don’t much like their chances, but just in case, here’s a quick look at the pitching matchup.

The Nats are starting Craig Stammen, a 25-year-old rookie righty out of the University of Dayton. He’s nothing special. Though he posted a 1.80 ERA across seven triple-A starts before being called up a few weeks ago, he was doing it with a 3.2 K/9. He’s made five major league starts since and has yet to turn in a quility start (though he’s not had any real disasters either, lasting a minimum of five innings each time and never allowing more than five runs). His best outing was his last, 5 1/3 innings, 3 runs (2 earned) and a whopping five strikeouts against Tampa Bay.

The Yankees counter with Joba Chamberlain, who has been frustratingly inconsistent since leaving his May 21 start after being hit with a comebacker. Joba walked four and lasted just four innings his next time out, then dominated the Indians over eight innings the turn after that. He followed that with a quality start against the Rays, but his last time out he again lasted just four innings and walked five Mets while struggling to get in rhythm and in synch with Jorge Posada.

Chamberlain will throw to Francisco Cervelli if they play today. That’s a day-game-after-night-game thing, and also a protect-the-fragile-veteran-in-bad-weather thing, but given the meme about Posada’s game calling and Cervelli’s success with A.J. Burnett the last time out, it will only feed the fire if Joba has a good game this afternoon. Of course, the flip side to that is a series loss to the historically awful Nationals. Sometimes you just can’t win.

Speaking of protecting fragile veterans, Derek Jeter (ankle) will sit again in favor of Ramiro Peña at shortstop. Brett Gardner gets the draw in center and leads off in Jeter’s place.

Washington Nationals

2009 Record: 16-45 (.262)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 23-38 (.377)

2008 Record: 59-102 (.366)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 62-99 (.385)

Manager: Manny Acta (for now)
General Manager: Mike Rizzo (acting GM)

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): Nationals Park (101/102)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Adam Dunn replaces Lastings Milledge (minors)
• Corey Patterson is filling in for Josh Willingham (bereavement list), who replaces Wily Mo Peña
• Nick Johnson reclaims his playing time from Aaron Boone
• Josh Bard is filling in for Jesus Flores (DL)
• Anderson Hernandez replaces Felipe Lopez
• Alberto Gonzalez replaces Emilio Bonifacio
• Jordan Zimmermann replcaes Tim Redding
• Shairon Martis replaces Odalis Perez
• Ross Detwiler replaces Shawn Hill and Collin Balester (minors)
• Craig Stammen is filling in for Scott Olsen (DL), who replaces Jason Bergmann (minors) and Matt Chico (DL)
• Joe Beimel, Ron Villone, Kip Wells, Julian Tavarez, and Mike MacDougal replace Jon Rauch, Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera (minors), Garrett Mock (minors), Steven Shell, and Charlie Manning

25-man Roster:

1B – Nick Johnson (L)
2B – Anderson Hernandez (S)
SS – Cristian Guzman (S)
3B – Ryan Zimmerman (R)
C – Josh Bard (S)
RF – Austin Kearns (R)
CF – Elijah Dukes (R)
LF – Adam Dunn (L)

Bench:

L – Willie Harris (UT)
R – Ron Belliard (IF)
R – Alberto Gonzalez (IF)
R – Wil Nieves (C)
L – Corey Patterson (OF)

Rotation:

L – John Lannan
R – Craig Stammen
R – Jordan Zimmermann
L – Ross Detwiler
R – Shairon Martis

Bullpen:

R – Joel Hanrahan
L – Joe Beimel
R – Julian Tavarez
L – Ron Villone
R – Jesus Colome
R – Kip Wells
R – Mike MacDougal

Bereavement List: OF – Josh Willingham (R)

15-day DL:

LHP – Scott Olsen (shoulder tendonitis)
RHP – Kip Wells (strained adductor)
C – Jesus Flores (fractured shoulder)
1B – Dmitri Young (back)
OF – Rogearvin Bernadina (broken ankle)

60-day DL:

LHP – Matt Chico (elbow soreness)
RHP – Terrell Young (shoulder inflammation)

Typical Lineup:

S – Cristian Guzman (SS)
L – Nick Johnson (1B)
R – Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
L – Adam Dunn (LF)
R – Elijah Dukes (CF)
R – Austin Kearns (RF)
S – Josh Bard (C)
S – Anderson Hernandez (2B)

(more…)

The Yankees should have lost Friday’s game to the Mets, did lose Saturday’s game, and now look to save face by sending A.J. Burnett to the mound against Johan Santana. This is the same A.J. Burnett who failed to get out of the third inning against the Red Sox in his last start.

If there’s good news, it’s that after posting a 0.78 ERA over his first seven starts, Santana has been human over his last five, posting a 4.64 and giving up eight home runs, including four to the Phillies his last time out.

Nick Swisher’s back in the lineup today. Francisco Cervelli will catch Burnett while Jorge Posada rides pine. Cervelli has never caught Burnett before, but opposing batters have hit .330/.406/.591 off Burnett in the four games Posada has caught him. Hideki Matsui starts at DH against the lefty Santana because Matsui has hit .333/.368/.556  in 19 plate appearances against Santana in his career. The small-sample caveat applies in both cases.

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New York Mets

2009 Record: 31-27 (.534)
2009 Pythagorean Record: 31-27 (.534)

2008 Record: 89-73 (.549)
2008 Pythagorean Record: 89-73 (.549)

Manager: Jerry Manuel
General Manager: Omar Minaya

Home Ballpark (Park Factors): CitiField (100/99)

Who’s Replacing Whom:

• Fernando Martinez is filling in for Carlos Delgado (DL)
• Alex Cora is filling in for Jose Reyes (DL)
• Wilson Valdez is filling in for Alex Cora, who actually replaces Damion Easley
• Omir Santos replaces Ramon Castro
• Dan Murphy replaces Endy Chavez
• Gary Sheffield replaces Marlon Anderson
• Jeremy Reed replaces Nick Evans (minors)
• Tim Redding is filling in for Oliver Perez (DL)
• Fernando Nieve is filling in for John Maine (DL)
• Livan Hernandez replaces Pedro Martinez
• Francisco Rodriguez replaces Billy Wagner (DL)
• Robert Parnell replaces Joe Smith
• Sean Green replaces Duaner Sanchez
• Ken Takashi replaces Scott Schoeneweis
• Jon Switzer is filling in for J.J. Putz, who replaces Aaron Heilman

25-man Roster:

1B – Dan Murphy (L)
2B – Luis Castilla (S)
SS – Alex Cora (L)
3B – David Wright (R)
C – Omir Santos (R)
RF – Ryan Church (L)
CF – Carlos Beltran (S)
RF – Fernando Martinez (L)

Bench:

R – Gary Sheffield (OF)
R – Fernando Tatis (UT)
L – Brian Schneider (C)
L – Jeremy Reed (OF)
L – Wilson Valdez (IF)

Rotation:

L – Johan Santana
R – Mike Pelfrey
R – Tim Redding
R – Livan Hernandez
R – Fernando Nieve

Bullpen:

R – Francisco Rodriguez
L – Pedro Feliciano
R – Robert Parnell
R – Sean Green
R – Brian Stokes
L – Ken Takahashi
L – Jon Switzer

15-day DL:

SS – Jose Reyes (hamstring)
OF – Angel Pagan (groin)
IF – Ramon Martinez (dislocated finger)
RHP – John Maine (shoulder fatigue)
LHP – Oliver Perez (patellar tendonitis)
RHP – J.J. Putz (bone spur in elbow)

60-day DL:

1B – Carlos Delgado (torn hip labrum)
LHP – Billy Wagner (TJ)

Typical Lineup:

L – Alex Cora (SS)
S – Luis Castillo (2B)
S – Carlos Beltran (CF)
R – David Wright (3B)
L – Dan Murphy (1B)
L – Ryan Church (RF)
L – Fernando Martinez (LF)
R – Omir Santos (C)

Notes: Fernando Tatis is platooning with Murphy at first base. Santos and Brian Schneider are splitting the catching duties. Gary Sheffield has been spelling Martinez and Church in the outfield corners, but will more likely DH for all three games at Yankee Stadium.

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Barring injury, last night’s series opener couldn’t have gone much worse for the Yankees. Now their remaining hopes of winning this series rest on tonight’s starter, Chien-Ming Wang, who hasn’t thrown more than 4 2/3 innings in a major league game this year and hasn’t been good for more than three frames in a single outing.

Wang returned to the rotation on Thursday and looked great for two innings, showing the velocity and drop on his sinker the Yankees had been waiting to see, but things flattened out after that, and he left with two outs in the fifth having surrendered five runs to the Rangers. Still, he got all but one of his 14 outs via groundball or strikeout, which was encouraging. Wang will be on a 90-pitch limit tonight, which could mean another short outing even if he pitches well (though Wang at his best could make those 90 pitches last into the eighth).

Also encouraging is that, after a strong April, Tim Wakefield, who starts tonight for Boston, has posted a 6.37 ERA over his last seven starts with opponents hitting .307/.393/.452 against him. Wakefield is 5-2 over that stretch as the Sox have scored an average of 7.14 runs per game for him. As much as I’m thinking good thoughts for Wang, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slugfest like that break out again tonight.  At the very least, the Yankees should do better than the two measly singles they managed last night.

The lineup returns to normal tonight (Damon in left, Swisher in right, Matsui to DH, though Matsui has hit just .170/.264/.319 lifetime against Wakefield), while rookie George Kottaras catches Wakefield for Boston.

The Yankees look to reboot their season series with the Red Sox with three games in Boston starting tonight. They’re 0-5 against the Bosox entering the series, but hold a one-game lead over Boston in the American League East and have played their best baseball in the month since the two team’s last met. Dig:

April 6 to May 7

Red Sox 18-11 (.621)
Yankees 13-15 (.464)

May 8 to June 8

Yankees 21-8 (.724)
Red Sox 15-13 (.536)

Take out their five head-to-head games, and the Yankees outplayed the Sox against neutral opponents during the season’s first month as well (13-10 to 13-11). Having taken series from all of the league’s other winning teams (the Rays, Jays, Rangers, Tigers, and Angels), all the Yankees have left to prove in the first half of this season is that they can beat the Red Sox head-to-head.

Not that it is likely to matter in the short run. As I wrote in my initial Red Sox preview in April, since the implementation of the unbalanced schedule in 2001, the season series between these two teams hasn’t put one team in the playoffs while keeping the other out, and all signs point to both making it to the postseason again this year. Still, bragging rights are fun, and despite the Yankees’ dominance of the league over the past month, the Red Sox still hold them.

The big news in Boston is that David Ortiz seems to have gone from hero to zero for realsies, forcing Terry Francona to drop him to sixth in the order. Ortiz actually enters this series on a six-game hitting streak and hit his second homer of the year on Saturday, but he’s still hitting just .197/.288/.308 on the season. I had figured Ortiz for a quick decline following his wrist injury last year, but I never thought he’d just vanish like this, which probably means he’ll pull out of it. Just look at Jason Varitek. The Red Sox’s catcher looked washed up last year when he hit .220/.313/.359 at age 36, but he has rebounded this year, hitting a solid .247/.337/.519 with ten homers.

Despite Ortiz’s vanishing act, what the Sox have done well this season is hit (fourth in the majors in runs scored per game) and pitch out of the bullpen (major league best 2.76 pen ERA). What they have not done well is field (second-worst defensive efficiency in the AL) and start games (fifth-worst starters ERA in baseball at 5.02).

Tonight’s starter, Josh Beckett, leads the Sox rotation with a 4.09 ERA and is the only Boston start to have an ERA below league average. Beckett had a terrible April, including allowing eight runs in five innings to the Yankees at Fenway on April 25, but he’s been awesome in May, going 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA in six starts and posting a 0.40 ERA across 22 2/3 innings over his last three starts.

A.J. Burnett, who helped turned that April Beckett blow-up into a Red Sox win by also allowing eight runs in five innings, again starts against his former Marlins rotationmate. In his six starts from that first match-up against Beckett through his return to Toronto on May 12, Burnett went 0-2 with a 6.34 ERA, but he rebounded nicely in his last two starts, both wins over Texas. In those two games, he posted a combined line of 13 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 BB, 15 K. Some more of that would help get the Yankees’ reboot off this series off on the right foot.

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Coming off their World Series appearance last year, the Rays were expected to be one of the best teams in baseball yet again in 2009, but two months into the season, they have yet to be a factor in the AL East race. It’s not for lack of trying. The Rays have the second-best Pythagorean record in all of baseball (behind the Dodgers). They are second only to the Yankees with 5.57 runs scored per game, and have been better than average at keeping runs off the board, ranking sixth in the AL in least runs allowed per game.

What’s gone wrong is some bad luck in one-run games (they’re 6-11 in such contests), and some bad luck in April. Since the beginning of May, the Rays gone 19-14, winning at a .576 clip. That despite the litany of other things that have gone wrong for them.

Expected to be a boon to the offense, designated hitter Pat Burrell landed on the DL in early May with a neck problem having hit just one home run and slugged .315 to that point. Second baseman Akinori Iwamura was lost for the season two weeks ago after tearing his anterior and medial collateral ligaments on a collision at the keystone. Slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett was off to a fluky start, hitting .373/.418/.596, but he sprained his ankle in the same game, landing on the DL.

The Rays new and improved right-field platoon of lefty Matt Joyce, acquired from the Tigers in the offseason, and righty Fernando Perez never got off the ground when Perez dislocated his wrist in spring training, ending his season. The Rays then inexplicably kept Joyce in Triple-A for most of the first two months of the season while persisting with the unexceptional Gabe Gross (.256/.362/.400) as the strong side of that platoon.

The Rays have finally called up Joyce, who hit .315/.408/.530 for Durham, as well as his Triple-A teammate David Price, who was supposed to fill the rotation spot vacated by the man the Rays traded for Joyce, Edwin Jackson. Price was kept down because of arbitration and innings limit concerns, but now that he’s here, he’s replacing the injured Scott Kazmir (quad), not Jackson or Jackson’s early-season replacement, rookie Jeff Niemann. Then again, maybe that’s just as well. Kazmir posted a 7.69 ERA before hitting the DL, and Andy Sonnanstine, who will start Monday, has posted a 7.07 mark.

As for Price, after a shaky, abbreviated first outing, he dominated the Twins for 5 2/3 innings his last time out, striking out 11 against just two walks while allowing just one run on five hits. He takes on CC Sabathia this afternoon in what should be a thrilling pitchers duel. Over his last five starts, Sabathia has gone 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. In those five starts he’s averaged nearly eight innings per start, and held opponents to a .187/.242/.259 line.

Francisco Cervelli will continue to catch Sabathia this afternoon. Jorge Posada will DH. Evan Longoria, who leads the majors with 55 RBIs, is expected to return to the Rays lineup after missing a couple of games with a tight left hamstring.

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Late spring mid-week matinee against the Rangers, not so terribly exciting, right? Wrong. Not only is this afternoon’s game the rubber game of the series, but the Yankees enter the day tied with the Red Sox atop the AL East and a half game behind Texas for the best record in the American League. Though it would surely be a temporary condition, a win today could put them alone in first place with the best record in the league. A loss could drop them to second place with the league’s third-best record.

That’s fun, but even more important is the return of Chien-Ming Wang to the rotation. To recap quickly, Wang broke his foot running the bases in Houston last June, missed the rest of the season, then opened 2009 by giving up 23 runs in six innings across his first three starts (34.50 ERA). He was placed on the disabled list with what the Yankees claimed was weakness in his hips stemming from the foot injury. After working out in Tampa, Wang threw 13 scoreless innings across two rehab starts for Triple-A Tampa, but the Yankees weren’t thrilled with the velocity or drop on his sinker and decided to keep him on the farm. Then, on May 21, Joba Chamberlain got hit with a comebacker and had to leave his start in the first inning. The resultant strain on the bullpen motivated the Yankees to activate Wang immediately and stick him in the pen. He pitched three moderately effective innings the next day, but in his two outings since then, he’s been excellent, throwing two perfect frames against the Rangers on May 27 and three scoreless against the Indians on Sunday, striking out five in those five innings.

With Phil Hughes having stumbled in his last start, the Yankees have swapped the two, starting Wang today and putting Hughes in the bullpen (count me among those glad to see them keep Hughes in the majors). The Rangers bats will tell us all we need to know about how well Wang is pitching, but I also go back to this great video analysis from the MLB Network’s Dan Plesac for a an idea of what to look for in Wang’s mechanics: balance on that right foot, a high leg kick, hands in close to the body, getting on top of his pitches, particularly the sinker, and throwing on that downward plain.

The Rangers counter Wang with former White Sox prospect Brandon McCarthy, who is finally healthy and pitching well. McCarthy has allowed more than four runs in a start just once this year and pitched fewer than five frames only in that same start. Last week, he shut out the Astros. In his last start, he held the A’s to one run on three hits over six innings.

Mark Teixeira, who sat out last night’s game having bruised his ankle on that take-out slide on Tuesday night, is back in the lineup. Francisco Cervelli gets the start behind the plate after Jorge Posada got hit with a variety of bats and balls in last night’s game. Derek Jeter also gets a game off, with slick-fielding Ramiro Peña starting behind the groundballer Wang and Nick Swisher moving up to bat behind Johnny Damon in the two-hole.

In other news, A.J. Burnett was suspended six games for throwing at Nelson Cruz the other night, so maybe Hughes will get another start anyway. Vicente Padilla, who has reportedly been placed on waivers by the Rangers, was merely fined.

The Yankees and Rangers enter this week’s three game series in the Bronx separated by a half game for the best record in the American League. Since the Yankees took two of three from the Rangers in Arlington last week, both teams won three games of a four-game series against a lesser opponent. Beating up on losing teams has been the Rangers’ m.o. thus far this season, but they’re just 5-10 against teams currently over .500, including last week’s series loss to the Yankees.

The Yanks, meanwhile, are flat-out rollin’, beating all comers. Dating back to May 8, they’re 16-6 (.727) and 6-1 in series. Their one series loss came at home against the NL East-leading Phillies, but their current run also includes series wins against the then-AL best Blue Jays and still-AL best Rangers. Since May 13, the Yankees are 14-4 (.778) and have not made a single error, setting a major league record with 18-straight errorless games. Just three American League teams have turned balls in play into outs at a higher rate than the Yankees (Texas is one of them), and no team in the majors is scoring runs more often than the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees current run began after they were swept at home in consecutive two-game series by the Red Sox and Rays. After this week’s three-game set against Texas, the Rays return to the Bronx for four games after which the Yankees travel to Boston for three. That will be the real test, of course, but by taking two of three from the Rangers now, they could enter that gauntlet with the league’s best record.

As for the Rangers, they haven’t changed much since we last saw them save for tonight’s starter, Vicente Padilla, who returns from the disabled list to reclaim his rotation spot from the now-injured Matt Harrison (sore shoulder). Padilla ran off three impressive starts (23 IP, 4 ER) before landing on the DL with a strained shoulder two weeks ago, but had a 7.42 ERA entering that stretch, so who knows what to expect from him tonight. Last year, he faced the Yankees just once, allowing four runs in six innings in Arlington in early August.

Padilla will be opposed by A.J. Burnett, who ten starts into his Yankee career looks an awful lot like the same old A.J. Burnett. He’s struck out 21 men in 18 2/3 innings across his last three starts, but also walked 12 in that span and allowed three home runs in a loss to the Phillies two starts ago. Last time out, he held Texas scoreless on three hits (and four walks) over six innings to earn the win. Here’s hoping for a repeat of that tonight.

The Indians helped open the new Yankee Stadium last month, and while their 22-run outburst in the third game of that inaugural series (most of the runs coming off Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett) is what sticks in the mind, they only managed a split of the series. In fact, the Indians had not won more than two games in a row prior to their just-completed four-game sweep of the Rays in Cleveland. When the week started, they were 17-28 and 8.5 games out of first place in the American League Central.

Things just aren’t going well for the Tribe. Travis Hafner is back on the disabled list. Grady Sizemore his hitting just .223/.313/.411 and is now DHing due to a sore right elbow that could soon land him on the DL. Since leaving the Bronx, they’ve turned over more than half of their bullpen, restocking with veteran retreads including Matt Herges, Tomo Ohka, and former Yankee Luis Vizcaino, and two fifths of their starting rotation has landed on the DL, with Anthony Reyes possibly out for the year.

Still, that sweep of the Rays was encouraging, and despite the injuries to Hafner and Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta’s power outage (.342 slugging, one homer), they’re third in the AL in runs scored per game. That’s due in large part to a tremendous comeback season from Victor Martinez (.359/.434/.557), a nice rebound by Asdrubal Cabrera (.321/.385/.439, seven steals in eight attempts), and a strong showing from right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (.289/.408/.457). They’re also benefiting from the fact that their non-stars (including Cabrera) are performing at or around league average, preventing any drains on the lineup beyond those being created by Sizemore, Hafner, and Peralta, the last of whom is at least getting on base more than a third of the time.

Their real problem has been pitching. Their starting rotation has a 5.70 ERA, better than only the Phillies’ among the thirty major league teams. Their bullpen as been a bit better, but still ranks ahead of the relief units of just four American League teams. Amazingly, Carl Pavano, who will face Phil Hughes on Sunday, is one of the three Cleveland starters who hasn’t hit the disabled list. After a rough start, Pavano has pitched well over his last six starts (5-1, 3.58 ERA), and Cliff Lee, who faces Andy Pettitte tonight, is leading the staff with a 3.04 ERA, but Fausto Carmona, who faces CC Sabathia tomorrow, is pitching like 2008 all over again (6.42 ERA, more walks than strikeouts), and the back-end of the rotation is halfway between a mystery and a horrorshow. Meanwhile, Kerry Wood is closing like Joe Borowski, converting eight of ten save opportunities, but with a scary 6.35 ERA, and the team’s sub-par defense isn’t helping matters.

Getting back to tonight’s starters. Lee is also pitching like it’s 2008, posting a 1.86 ERA with a 4.33 K/BB ratio over his last eight starts. However, he’s not getting any run support. The Indians have scored zero or one runs in five of his ten starts, are averaging 2.87 runs per game for him, and have gone just 2-8 in his starts, though one of those wins came at Yankee Stadium in the only game this season in which Lee has received more than five runs of support. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 7-2 in Andy Pettitte’s stars despite his comparitively inflated 4.30 ERA. Over his last five starts, Pettitte has compiled a 5.46 ERA, but the Yanks and their AL-leading offense have still gone 4-1 in those games and scored six runs in the one they lost.

Meanwhile, Jorge Posada’s back, catching, and batting sixth, making the league’s best offense that much better. Kevin Cash is in Scranton. Brett Gardner is in center for the still achy Melky Cabrera, and the bottom third of the order is now Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, and Gardner. Not bad at all.

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The Bombers get back to their more normal chapeaus, and A-Rod seeks to continue his resurrection . . . consider this the official game thread.

Yankees/Rangers (Chamberlain/Millwood)