This has been an odd series.

The Yankees arrived in Detroit on Ernie Harwell night with Sergio Mitre set to make a spot start for Andy Pettitte, who didn’t think he needed to be spotted for, then found out that the Tigers also had to use a replacement starter because Dontrelle Willis came down with the flu earlier that day. Mitre actually out-pitched the Tigers’ Brad Thomas, but because Jim Leyland took Thomas out after three innings and has one of the league’s best bullpens, and because A.J. Burnett burned the Yankees’ long-reliever on Sunday, Alfredo Aceves was out with a herniated disc (he’s since landed on the disabled list), and Javy Vazquez was set to pitch on Tuesday, potentially requiring long relief himself, Joe Girardi stuck with Mitre as long as he could (which turned out to be 4 1/3 innings), and the Yankees were unable to close the small deficit that resulted.

Then Tuesday got rained out, making all that bullpen-saving on Monday pointless. Then Vazquez pitched very well in the day half of Wednesday’s double-header, but New Jersey native Rick Porcello, who has been awful all year, combined with that bullpen to shut the Yankees out for the first time this season. Suddenly the Yankees had a three-game losing streak and had to scramble to split the series.

After the Tigers all gave each other mohawks during the down time between games, Phil Hughes dominated in the night-cap, handing a slim 2-0 lead to the Yankees end-game relievers, but with Mariano Rivera ready to pitch for the first time in nearly two weeks, the Yanks threw up a six-spot in the top of the ninth (Mo worked a 1-2-3 bottom of the 9th anyway).

Mix in some end-of-the-roster transactions (hello Ivan Nova and Greg Golson, not so fast Jonathan Albaladejo, and now, finally, Juan Miranda, albeit at the expense of Kevin Russo), yet another minor injury (Nick Swisher left the late game on Wednesday with tightness in his left bicep and is day-to-day, Golson will start in his place today), and the chance of another rain out today, and this had been a very odd series.

If the rain holds off, we’ll be treated to the exciting pitching matchup of Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia, who finished third and fourth, respectively, in last year’s Cy Young voting and had a pair of compelling duels against one another last year (which, fittingly,  they split).

Of course, even if they get it in, it’s a mid-week day game which most folks will miss while at work.

Odd series.

I’ll take Jav-full as Javier Vazquez looks to have a good outing today in the first of two against the Tigers.

Go git ’em, Hoss, and Let’s Go Yan-Kees!

So, Friday night I try to explain that the Red Sox don’t suck, and then they go and lose the first two games of this weekend series by a combined score of 24-6 against a Yankees team that is suddenly as fragile as Nick Johnson’s wrists (Alfredo Aceves, come on down . . .). Ingrates.

Not that I’m complaining. The Yankees have won four of five against the Sox and clinched yet another series win. All that remains in this set is for them to complete a sweep on national TV.

The Sox have their best chance at a win in this series tonight, not because the Yankees are throwing A.J. Burnett, but because the Sox have Jon Lester on the hill. Lester has been untouchable in his last three outings, allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings while striking out 23 and not allowing a single home run.

Fortunately for the Yankees, Robinson Cano is back at second base, and Jorge Posada is taking Johnson’s place at DH, his first start at any position in almost a week. Following those two are Marcus Thames in left, the red-hot Francisco Cervelli, and Brett Gardner back in his customary nine hole thanks to Nick Swisher batting second. It says something about how well the Yankees are playing thus far, and how much every man on the roster is contributing, that this is a lineup I’m happy to see.

If Posada makes it through tonight in one piece, he should catch the opener in Detroit on Monday. That’s good news with regards to Posada’s health, but bad news with regard to lineup optimization as it will bench Cervelli and open the DH spot to a revolving door that means more starts for the rest of the bench.

Alfredo Aceves, who left Saturday’s game with a stiff lower back is day-to-day. Nick Johnson is on the 15-day DL with inflammation in a tendon in his right wrist. He missed most of the 2008 season due to a torn tendon in that wrist, so I wouldn’t expect him back soon, and the Yankees have already said he’ll be gone more than the minimum 15 days.

Kevin Russo takes Johnson’s place on the roster. Russo impressed in camp with a strong plate approach and the ability to hit the pitch he’s given. The 25-year-old second baseman can also play third and has been working at short and in the outfield, but he doesn’t have much power (as evidenced by his .302/.383/.425 line for Triple-A Scranton this year) and isn’t a natural defender. Still, he should provide some good at-bats and flexibility when needed. Russo had a nine game hitting streak going for Scranton when he was called up. His first appearance for the Yankees will be his major league debut.

The banged-up Yanks are even more banged-up today after a painful win on Friday night in Boston. Cano is out today; Nick Johnson is headed to the DL. But CC Sabathia is on the hill. He’ll go against Clay Buchholz, who has been Boston’s best starter this year.

Never mind the payback, just win, baby.

[photo credit: Yohei Yamashita]

The Yankees got through April relatively unscathed, but hurtin’ time arrived this past week with Nick Johnson (stiff back), Jorge Posada (knee contusion/calf strain), Alex Rodriguez (sore knee/fatigue), and Mariano Rivera (side tightness) all missing games due to aches and pains of varying degrees. Amid all of that, Curtis Granderson suffered a major injury, a Grade 2 groin strain that will have him out until June, but thus far the injuries have only revealed the Yankees’ depth.

Joba Chamberlain saved Monday night’s game in Rivera’s stead. Brett Gardner and Randy Winn delivered unexpected home runs in Granderson’s absence, and Marcus Thames, who has been raking all season, actually made a nifty sliding play in left field with Gardner relocated to center. Francisco Cervelli has played well in Posada’s place, hitting .346 in his limited opportunities and even making his first regular season appearance at third base, adding to the team’s infield depth. Nick Swisher has flipped the switch in his home park, leading the Yankee charge of late by picking up eight hits, including two homers, in his last 12 at-bats, and Phil Hughes has been everything the Yankees had hoped Javy Vazquez would be and more, starting the season 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA.

That’s not to say that these aches and pains won’t start hurting the team as a whole if they keep piling up. Winn and Gardner aren’t likely to go deep again any time soon (after homering on Sunday, Gardner said “That’s my one for the year.”). Thames remains a butcher in left. Cervelli’s bat is cooling. Hughes is due for a big correction given his .158 opponents’ average on balls in play (though I think he’ll survive it). Not every starter is going to hand the ball directly to Joba the way CC Sabathia did last night. The good news is that Johnson and Rodriguez are back in the lineup, Rivera could be back as soon as tonight but more likely tomorrow, and Posada is merely day-to-day.

An encouraging sign regarding Posada, who is expected to return to the lineup for the opener of the Boston series on Friday and can pinch-hit in the meantime, is that outfielder Greg Golson, not a third catcher, is the minor leaguer being called up tonight to restore the “balance” on the roster to four men on the bench and seven in the bullpen. Sadly, Mark Melancon will once again board the Scranton shuttle to make room having made just one appearance in his time with the big club.

Golson is here because he’s on the 40-man roster, is a legitimate center fielder, and has good fifth-outfielder tools (speed and defense). Still, I’m a bit frustrated to see him because the 24-year-old wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire for Scranton (.253/.289/.430 with four steals in four tries), and it was my assumption that the Yankees claimed Golson off waivers as a high-upside fixer-upper. To be fair, his strikeout rate is way down (from one every 3.6 plate appearances in Double-A in 2008 to one every seven PA in the early going this year), which is a good sign, but I wouldn’t consider him ready for the big reveal just yet and there are other Scranton outfielders who are off to better starts and could have been added to the 40-man at the expense of perpetually injured righty Christian Garcia, who just underwent a second Tommy John surgery. David Winfree (.301/.344/.470) and Colin Curtis (.339/.435/.441) aren’t center fielders, but I’d be fine with Randy Winn as an emergency backup to Brett Gardner with Golson a game away should Gardner get hurt.

The other good news is that the Orioles are still in town for two more days. Tonight, O’s rookie Brian Matusz takes on A.J. Burnett. Twenty-three-year-old lefty Matusz, a first-round draft pick in 2008, is off to a solid start in his first full big-league campaign. His last three starts, including a game at Fenway and a loss to the Yankees in Baltimore, were quality starts, and he has struck out 29 men in 30 2/3 innings on the season while allowing just two home runs (one to Robinson Cano).

A.J. Burnett has been superficially better, but on closer examination has only been more dominant in his three quality starts, while posting inferior overall peripherals. Burnett flat-out dominated the O’s in his last start, holding them scoreless on three singles and a walk over eight innings, but he has struck out just seven men in his last 14 1/3 innings and struck out just one in seven frames in his second start of the season. Burnett hasn’t been walking as many men as he usually does either, and hasn’t had a real disaster start yet either, but his perfect 3-0 record and 2.43 ERA imply a consistent dominance that hasn’t really been there.

Of course, I’m always down on Burnett, always expecting his next start to be a disaster. Still, I think if the Orioles are going to pull out a win in this series, tonight’s their best chance, with Matusz on the hill, Posada on the shelf, Rivera’s availability in question, and Burnett (who, according to the two alter kockers in my section last night, “has a lot of jailhouse tats”) taking the ball for the home nine.

Joe Girardi’s lineup against the lefty Matusz has Marcus Thames in left, Derek Jeter at DH, Ramiro Peña at shortstop, and Francisco Cervelli catching, with Nick Swisher batting second and a bottom four behind Robinson Cano of Thames, Brett Gardner, Cervelli, and Peña.

Javier Vazquez has made just one start in the Bronx since being reacquired by the Yankees, and it ended with a bunch of blockheads booing what was actually a fairly solid start that just happened to come opposite a fantastic performance by the Angels’ Joel Piñeiro. What they were booing wasn’t really Vazquez’s performance that day, but his disaster start in Tampa Bay the turn before and the back-breaking grand slam he allowed to Johnny Damon in Game Seven of the 2004 ALCS, Vazquez’s last appearance in Yankee pinstripes. Never mind the absurdity of blaming Vazquez for the Yankees’ collapse in 2004 (or even for the four runs allowed on the Damon slam given that Vazquez was exactly the worst pitcher for Joe Torre to have brought in after Kevin Brown had loaded the bases). We all know there’s a thriving contingent of mouth-breathing jackasses in every ballpark, particularly those in the northeast. What worries me is that this afternoon’s game looks primed to dump more blood into the water as Vazquez is going up against one of the game’s hottest pitchers in White Sox lefty Jon Danks.

Vazquez, as we all know all too well by this point, has been struggling with his mechanics in the early going this year, rushing his delivery and thus causing his arm to drag, his slider to flatten out, and robbing his fastball of both location and velocity. Though he did pick up a win against the punchless A’s in Oakland, he has yet to turn in a quality start, and in three of his four outings he has missed both the innings and runs qualifications for that statistic. I still have faith that Vazquez will get on track, but more abuse from the home fans will only make the allegations of Eddie Whitson syndrome a self-fulfilling prophecy.

As for Danks, he’s the real deal. All of his four starts this season have been quality, and he’s averaging nearly 7 1/3 innings and barely more than one earned run per game. He leads the American League in WHIP (0.86), and boasts a 1.55 ERA and 4.33 K/BB. Like CC Sabathia, Danks has been hit-lucky in the early going (.224 opponent’s average on balls in play), but also like CC, he has the stuff to survive a correction. I’m willing to believe the 25-year-old is making the leap this year.

Danks faced the Yankees just once last year, allowing four runs in six innings but picking up a win. The Yankee who has faced him most is former Tiger Curtis Granderson, who has gone 1-for-19 with no walks against the lefty. Granderson is hitting .172/.200/.242 against lefties this year, but Nick Johnson is the man taking a seat to make room for Marcus Thames in the lineup. I understand not wanting Thames in the outfield behind a flyballer like Vazquez, but if Randy Winn doesn’t start this game, he shouldn’t be on this team.

Nick Swisher hits second. Jorge Posada is back behind the plate.

Failing to complete a sweep of the A’s, that was no big deal. Losing two of three to a good Angels team in Anaheim, you almost expect that. Losing the opener against a struggling Orioles team that had only won three games all season then looking back and realizing you have lost four of their last five, that’s a wake-up call. The Yankees need to win the next two games in Baltimore to avoid an embarrassing series loss to the lowly O’s as well as a losing record on their three-stop road trip. Fortunately, they have CC Sabathia on the mound tonight to help get the team back on track.

Sabathia’s last three games have been a near no-hitter and a pair of shortened complete games (six innings in a rain-shortened game, eight innings in a 4-2 loss), which makes this one of his better Aprils on record. One point of warning: CC has been pretty hit-lucky, holding opponents to an absurdly low .197 batting average on balls in play. As is typical for CC in April, his walks are up a bit, and his strikeout rate is no better than it was last year (which was a four-year low for the big lefty). We all know he’ll only get better from here, but those peripherals show there’s actually room for him to do so.

With Nick Johnson back in the lineup as the DH, Sabathia will pitch to Jorge Posada for the first time since Opening Day Night. That shouldn’t effect his performance, but Sabathia’s breakout game as a Yankee came here in Baltimore with Francisco Cervelli behind the plate just less than a year ago, on May 8, 2009. The opposing pitcher that night, Jeremy Guthrie, is on the hill for the O’s again tonight. All four of Guthrie’s starts this season have been quality (three of them against the Rays and Red Sox) and he has walked just five batters total. Despite that, the Orioles have lost all four of those games due to poor run and bullpen support. Guthrie faced the Yankees five times last year and turned in three quality starts, but his and the Orioles’ only win in those five games was Guthrie’s Opening Day matchup against, yes, CC Sabathia. In fact, tonight Guthrie and Sabathia face off for the fourth time dating back that Opening Day tilt. CC holds a 2-1 advantage in those matchups.

With Joel Piñeiro going for the Angels this afternoon and Javy Vazquez taking the hill for the Yankees on Sunday, last night’s loss was a tough one for the Yankees to take, but while Kendry Morales’s two-run homer off Joba Chamberlain might have been the decisive blow, the more memorable one came in the third inning when Mark Teixeira, after being hit in the triceps by a pitch, rounded third and absolutely flattened Angels backup catcher Bobby Wilson, who was making his first major league start.

After the game, both managers (both former catchers) said they thought the play was clean, and despite a few more bits of accidental contact and hit batsmen later in the game, there was no jawing between the teams, no real sense of anger or conflict. Despite all of that, I thought it was a dirty play on Teixeira’s part, not only because Wilson had set up behind home, giving Teixeira a clear path to the plate, but because of Teixeira’s behavior in the immediate after math of the collision.

After leveling Wilson, Teixeira stood up and went back to touch home, clearly indicating that his initial target had been the catcher, not the plate. As he then spun back around to head toward the Yankee dugout, his eye caught Wilson sprawled out in the dirt, clearly in pain, but not only didn’t he ask Wilson if he was okay, he didn’t acknowledge him at all and showed no concern after returning to the dugout despite the fact that Wilson had to be helped off the field and carried down the dugout stairs. After the game, Teixeira spoke kindly of Wilson and said he intended to call him to make sure he was okay (Wilson was taken to a local hospital for a CT scan and was diagnosed with a concussion), but in the heat of the moment, I don’t believe Teixeira had any regard for the well being of his opponent.

Was it because of the hit-by-pitch? Because of the virulent booing he’d gotten from his former home fans at Angel Stadium? Was it boiled-over frustration because of his slow start? Probably not, though all likely helped bring out the red-ass in the Yankee first baseman.

We’ve seen that before. Last year, in a game against the Twins, Tex almost got into it with Carlos Gomez because the Twins’ center fielder was crossing first inside the bag and Teixeira was afraid of a potential collision. We’ve also seen him level catchers before. The first thing I thought of when I saw Tex flatten Wilson last night was the play in that wild triple-comeback game against the Rangers in May 2006 in which Jorge Posada was knocked back into the homeplate umpire on a collision at the plate but held on to the ball for the out. The baserunner on that play? Mark Teixiera. From Alex’s recap:

By the end of the next inning, the Yanks would have a one-run lead. But before the home team came to bat, Jorge Posada was involved in what will go down as one of the unforgettable plays of his career, let alone the 2006 Yankee season. With two men out, Hank Blalock laced a double down the left field line. The ball hugged the corner and Melky Cabrera fielded it nervously–he looks unfamiliar and uncomfortable out in left. Mark Teixeira, who had a great night with the stick and seems to have gotten his groove back, raced around second and now charged towards home. Cabrera finally got the ball to Jeter who fired to Posada. The ball skipped home in time, Posada fielded it and then was crunched by Teixeira, who lowered his shoulder and let him have it. It was as hard a collision as I can ever remember Posada being involved with. The blow knocked Posada backwards and into the leg of the home plate umpire. But he hung onto the ball and the place went nuts.

Best I can tell, Mark Teixeira didn’t play football in college (though he’s a big football fan, both college and NFL), but given his ability to lay a hit on an opponent, he should have.

So, Tex put a little extra heat in this series. We’ll see if anything comes of it. For now, the Yankees need to win two unfavorable pitching matchups to avoid their first series loss of the year. (I told you it wouldn’t be easy.)

This afternoon, Andy Pettitte takes on Joel Piñeiro on FOX. Both starters have been outstanding in their first three starts, Pettitte going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, Piñeiro going 2-1 with a 1.77, his one loss coming in a quality start in which he got just one run of support from the Angels’ offense. Piñeiro dominated the Yankees for seven innings in the Bronx last week, striking out seven against no walks while allowing just one run on five hits, the key hit being an RBI triple by Nick Swisher. The night before that, Pettitte held the Halos scoreless for six frames, striking out six.

So Phil Hughes took a no-hitter into the eighth inning last night. How can this afternoon’s starter match that? Well, CC Sabathia has already taken a no-no into the eighth this season, getting two outs further than Hughes did last night, so he’ll have to come up with a new trick. Completing the Yankees second straight sweep and extending their winning streak to seven games would be sufficient.

CC needed just 73 pitches to get through six innings while striking out nine Rangers (and walking none) his last time out, and over his last two starts he’s allowed just one run on four hits and two walks while striking out 14 in 13 2/3 innings. He’ll face crafty 26-year-old lefty Dallas Braden this afternoon. Braden has shown improvement in each of his last two big-league campaigns and has been sharp in the early going, starting 2010 with three quality starts, all leading to Oakland wins. He faced the Yankees just once last year and was torched in the Bronx (seven runs on ten hits and six walks in 5 2/3 IP). A week later, an infected rash on his foot ended his season.

Nick Swisher returns to the lineup this afternoon while Curtis Granderson yeilds to Marcus Thames against the lefty Braden. Brett Gardner is in center. Francisco Cervelli catches the day game after the night game. After Cano, the lineup is Swisher, Thames, Cervelli, Gardner.

Tonight the Yankees look to go five-for-five in series in the young season and extend their current five-game winning streak to six. If that should happen thanks to another solid start from Phil Hughes, the latter would be as encouraging as the former. Hughes looked sharp early in his regular season debut against the Angels last Thursday. Though he ultimately walked five and ran up his pitch count in turn, limiting himself to five innings, he also held the Halos to two runs on three hits while striking out six. For all of my grousing about Joba Chamberlain being wasted in the bullpen, Hughes is every bit as important to the future of the Yankee rotation (and thus the Yankees’ future) and his time is now. His strong debut was more than just the cherry on top of the Yankees’ hot start.

Opposing Hughes will be Ben Sheets, who despite being a veteran All-Star, has something to prove himself coming off a season lost to elbow surgery and ill-timed free agency. After three starts, Sheets has a 2.65 ERA, but has walked two more than he’s struck out and hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning, leaving room for the A’s bullpen to blow his first two games. It’s a compelling matchup of talented hard-throwing right-handers at very different stages of their careers.

Randy Winn will start in right field tonight as Nick Swisher gets a curiously-timed day off after returning to his old haunt and breaking an extended 0-fer. Maybe he was proving it all night, too.

Phil Hughes makes his first start of the season tonight. But first, dig one of the most stunning opening sequences in movie history:

Next: Let’s Go Yan-Kees!

Javy “Puttin Out the Fire (with Gasoline)” Vazquez makes his re-debut in the Bronx this afternoon at the River Avenue Oil Slick.

Let’s hope his stuff is as crisp as this gorgeous spring day, and…

Let’s Go Yan-Kees!

The Yankees haven’t won an April series against the Red Sox since 2005 and haven’t won an April series in Fenway park since 2001. In the last three years (the two teams didn’t meet in April in 2006), the Yankees are 3-13 against the Red Sox in April. Over that same span, the Yankees are leading the overall series 28-26. The Yankees haven’t lost a season series to Boston since 2004, though the last two years the two teams split the series, going a combined 18-18.

My point is that I half expect the Yankees to split the remaining two games at Fenway (I won’t bother telling you what the other half of me expects with Jon Lester and John Lackey starting those two games for Boston), and while these three games count as much as three in September, I’m just not terribly upset about it.

A.J. Burnett goes for the Yankees tonight. One of of the selling points that got Burnett his big contract with the Yankees was the fact that he had survived for three years in the AL East and posted a 2.60 ERA in four starts against Boston in 2008. So, of course, in his first year as a Yankee, Burnett posted an 8.85 ERA in another four starts against the Red Sox. Burnett did have that one brilliant outing when he dueled with Josh Beckett and held the Sox to one hit over 7 2/3 shutout innings, but that came in the Bronx. His three starts at Fenway last year were all disasters as he allowed 22 runs in just 12 2/3 innings while walking as many as he struck out (ten). So Burnett comes into tonight’s start with something to prove, and I have to say, as is typically my reaction to A.J. Burnett, I’m not optimistic.

Opposing Burnett will be lefty Jon Lester, who frankly should have drawn the Opening Day start as he’s Boston’s best starter. Lester actually got beat up by the Yankees at Fenway the last time he faced them on September 25 of last year, but the other six starts he made against the Yankees in 2008 and 2009 were all quality starts, some of them downright dominating performances.

In more encouraging news, Phil Hughes was sharp in his simulated game in extended spring training yesterday and will join the team today in Boston. He’ll pitch another extended spring training game while the team is in Tampa playing the Rays this weekend. I’m looking forward to his return to the rotation a week from Thursday.

Tonight’s lineup against the lefty Lester finds Marcus Thames in left field and Curtis Granderson batting ninth behind Nick Swisher and Thames. As I’m sure Ken Singleton will say on tonight’s broadcast, there’s only one spot after ninth, and that’s “bench.” Just ask Brett Gardner, who also had a good showing on Sunday night and has a much better track record against left-handed pitching than Granderson.

I hate to be that guy, but while I’m as excited about Opening Night against the Red Sox, set to commence in little more than a half an hour, as anyone else, I must temper my and your expectations for tonight’s game with a reminder about CC Sabathia’s tendency to stumble out of the gate. Against a career mark of 3.63, Sabathia has posted a 4.54 ERA in 39 career starts in April to go with a decidedly unimpressive 1.96 K/BB on the month. The last two years, coming off heavy workloads, his early starts have been worse.

In 2008, coming off his Cy Young season and a huge jump in innings pitched from 192 2/3 in 2006 to 256 1/3 (including the postseason) in 2007, he gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings on Opening Day against the White Sox and after four starts was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and as many walks as strikeouts. Last year, in his Yankee debut against the Orioles on Opening Day in Baltimore, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings while walking five against no strikeouts while clinging to a heating pad between innings. He didn’t struggle quite as much thereafter, but after six starts was 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.6 K/BB. Sabathia’s 7.23 ERA and 3.85 BB/9 in spring training this year (which doesn’t include a minor league start in which he was lit up but does include the five runs in 4 2/3 innings he allowed in his final spring start) don’t offer much hope for his bucking that trend this year.

If there’s a positive for Sabathia going into tonight’s start, it’s that he was nails against the Red Sox last year, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 5.17 K/BB in four starts. Then again, the Sox have added two right-handed power bats, one of whom, Mike Cameron, has hit him well in the past (6-for-13 with five extra base hits and just two strikeouts, though most of that came when Cameron was with the Mariners and he hasn’t faced Sabathia since 2004). Cameron, however, is the only member of tonight’s Red Sox lineup to have had any significant success against Sabathia.

As for Josh Beckett, he struck out 22 men against just five walks in 19 1/3 spring innings and allowed just two hits in seven innings while striking out ten Rays on Opening Day at Fenway a year ago. The key matchup for the Yankees against Beckett is new fifth-place hitter Robinson Cano, who has gone 15-for-44 (.341) against the Boston righty in his career with eight extra base hits (three of them homers) and just four strikeouts. Brett Gardner, meanwhile, has never reached base against Beckett in ten career confrontations.

Finally, thanks to Steve Lombardi at the Baseball-Reference Blog, we know that the Yankees and Red Sox last opened the season against each other at Fenway Park in 1985. Oil Can Boyd beat a 46-year-old Phil Neikro that day and the Yankees went on to lose the division to the Blue Jays by two games. (For more Opening Day ephemera, check out Diane’s debut Bantermetrics column.) The Yankees and Sox last opened the season against each other in 2005 doing so in a Sunday Night game at Yankee Stadium in which Randy Johnson beat David Wells. That year, the two teams finished with identical records, but the Yankees won the division by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Yankees were 10-9 against Boston that year. You could say they won the division on Opening Day.

If the first two games of this World Series could have gone either way, the pitching matchups in Games Three and Four clearly favored the Yankees and, though they came close, it was the Phillies’ inability to break serve that has them one win away from failing in their bid to repeat as world champions.

Tonight’s pitching matchup calls for a Phillies victory that would send the Series back up the Turnpike with the Yankees leading 3-2. The Phillies haven’t lost a game started by Cliff Lee this postseason as Lee has been flat-out dominant. In four starts, he has tossed two complete games and twice struck out ten men without walking a batter, and doing both of those things in Game One of this World Series against the Yankees. In his four starts combined, Lee has walked just three, given up no home runs, and allowed just two earned runs, giving him a 0.54 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 10.0 K/BB. Opponents are hitting just .171/.192/.214 against Lee this postseason. His worst start saw him give up three runs, two of them unearned in 7 1/3 innings against the Rockies in Game Four of the NLDS. However good you think Cliff Lee has been, he’s been better.

That’s why the Phillies’ decision not to try to get three starts out of Lee drastically reduced their chances of repeating. Sure, Lee had never pitched on three-days’ rest before, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or that he wouldn’t succeed if he tried. One could argue that the Phils were better off getting two guaranteed wins from a fully-rested Lee than risking the second win by trying to milk a third out of him, but that only works if a) the Phillies can somehow win two other games (with a maximum of three games left in the series they’ve still won only Lee’s one start) and b) if they win tonight.

As I said, tonight’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean A.J. Burnett is chopped liver. Despite all of my complaints about his contract and his inconsistency (both of which remain problematic, the contract especially), Burnett has answered the bell every time the Yankees have rung it. He took his turn every five days during the regular season, surpassing 30 starts for just the third time in his career, and, save for a bad first inning in Game Five against the Angels and his usual assortment of walks, hit batters, and wild pitches (resulting in 18 free bases in 25 1/3 innings), has been nails in the postseason. Burnett’s Game Two start against the Phillies would have bested Lee’s Game Four outing against the Rockies, so there’s more than momentum to cling to for those hoping the Yankees will wrap things up tonight.

The old baseball saying is that momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, but sometimes in postseason series a heartbreaking loss that puts a team one game away from elimination really does carry over to the next game. Think of the Giants in the 2002 Series or the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS (both walking-dead Game Sevens by Dusty Baker managed teams), the Cardinals in the 1985 World Series after Don Denkinger’s call opened the door to their collapse in Game Six, or the Angels in the 1986 ALCS after Dave Henderson’s Game Six home run ripped the pennant out of their hands. The Red Sox got a lead in Game Seven of the 1986 World Series, but I doubt even they believed they’d hold it after their crushing loss in Game Six.

The Phillies weren’t on the verge of the championship last night, they weren’t even really on the verge of tying up the series (they never had a lead in the game), but Pedro Feliz’s game-tying home run and Brad Lidge’s return to perfection in the first two rounds of the postseason made them believe they had the game in hand with the score tied 4-4 and two outs in the top of the ninth. The crowd even thought they had the final out in that inning when Johnny Damon foul tipped a would-be strike three from Lidge early in his game-changing at-bat. The sequence of events that followed (Damon’s single and steal of second and third on a single pitch against the shift, Alex Rodriguez’s ringing go-ahead double, and Jorge Posada’s two-RBI single, which gave Mariano Rivera some unneeded breathing room) was legitimately heartbreaking for a Phillies team that was flush with excitement after tying up the game in the previous half inning. They’d be right to wonder if they couldn’t complete that comeback what hope have they of coming back in the Series.

At the risk of rousing the ghosts of 2004, I’d say none. The only question is whether or not this series goes back to the Bronx, like the ALCS did, or Burnett and company get it done tonight despite the presence of Lee.

Major League Baseball has yet to approve the Yankees’ request to replace the injured Melky Cabrera, who tore his hamstring running to first last night, but Brett Gardner would be in center field either way and is tonight. With Jose Molina catching Burnett yet again, that gives the Yankees a bottom five of Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, and Burnett. That against Cliff Lee. Molina hits lefties better than righties (.259/.306/.384 career) and Gardner is at least Melky’s equal (beyond the gains in speed and defense, he posted a .272 EqA this year to Melky’s .267). Still looking at that lineup, one suspects we’ll get a sixth game out of this Series after all.

The first two games of this World Series could have gone either way and did. CC Sabathia allowed just two runs in seven innings in Game One, but Cliff Lee allowed just one unearned run in nine as the Phillies cruised to a 1-0 lead. Pedro Martinez was sharp in Game Two, striking out eight in six innings while allowing just three runs, but A.J. Burnett was better, striking out nine and allowing just one run in seven, setting up a six-out save by Mariano Rivera which tied the series at 1-1.

The conventional wisdom is that when the road team splits the first two games of a best-of-seven series, they’ve succeeded in making it a best-of-five series in which they have the majority of the home games. That’s true, to a point, but it overlooks the sizeable advantages the Yankees retain in this series. To begin with, they still have home field advantage for what are likely to be the two most important games of the Series, Games Six and Seven, both of which will find at least one team a win away from the championship. The Yankees also have the edge in at least three of the remaining pitching matchups, including tonight’s and tomorrow’s.

Yesterday, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel announced that Joe Blanton, not Cliff Lee, would start Sunday’s Game Four. Lee will only have had three-days’ rest heading into Sunday, and he’s never started on short rest in his major league career. He also threw 122 pitches in his Game One shutout. Thus, Blanton, which gives the Yankees a sizeable advantage as Joe Girardi announced today that he will indeed start CC Sabathia on short rest in Game Four. Pitching on three-days’ rest in Game Four of the ALCS, Sabathia held the Angels to one run (on a solo homer) in eight innings. Sabathia also dominated in three consecutive short-rest starts for the Brewers as the 2008 season drew to a close (0.83 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 21 K, 4 BB, 0 HR in 21 2/3 IP). Until he was bested by Lee in Game One, the Yankees had won all three of Sabathia’s starts this postseason, and with Blanton opposing him in Game Four, the Yankees have to be heavily favored in that game as well.

Entering the Series, when it seemed that Manuel would start Lee on short rest, tonight’s game looked like most favorable pitching matchup for the Yankees. Cole Hamels pitched the Phillies to the title last year, but this postseason he’s been just shy of awful, posting a 6.75 ERA while allowing six home runs in just 14 2/3 innings over three starts (that’s 3.7 HR/9). That bad run actually extends back through Hamels’ last three starts of the regular season, giving him a 6.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last six starts.

The Phillies have actually won two of Hamels three postseason starts, both against the Dodgers, but did so by scoring a combined 18 runs. That doesn’t seem likely to happen tonight as Andy Pettitte has been his usual reliable self. Pettitte has lasted 6 1/3 innings in all three of his starts this postseason, walked just one man in each, and only once allowed as many as three runs. In fact, Pettitte’s last six postseason starts dating back to the 2005 NLCS have been quality starts (2.15 ERA, 4.0 K/BB), and in his last 13 postseason starts, including all of the 2003 playoffs and World Series, he’s posted a 2.64 ERA and turned in 11 quality starts. In his one regular season start against the Phillies this year, Pettitte gave up four runs in seven innings, but three of those runs scored on a home run by John Mayberry Jr., who isn’t even on the Phillies’ World Series roster.

Hamels is starting at home, where he his ERA was nearly a run and a quarter lower than his road mark this year, but Pettitte was significantly better on the road and has allowed just one earned run in 12 career innings at Citizens Bank Park. This matchup clearly favors the Yankees, and it will be on the offense and the bullpen to cash in these next two games, especially with the dominant Lee starting on full rest in Game Five (likely against A.J. Burnett on short rest).

Judging by the starting pitching matchups alone, this Series should return to the Bronx with the Yankees leading 3-2 and should find Sabathia, pitching on short rest for the second time in a row, lined up to face Hamels in a Game Seven matchup that also heavily favors the Yankees.

The only catch is the weather. If any of these games is rained out (and there’s a 70 percent chance of rain tonight, though the teams believe they’re going to get the game in), it could wipe out the Yankees’ hopes of starting Sabathia twice more and could line up his then-only-remaining start with Lee’s on Monday, thus making CC a near non-factor rather than the expected difference maker. If that happens, it will make taking advantage of something like tonight’s Pettitte-Hamels pairing all the more crucial to the Yankees’ success in this series.

Nick Swisher returns to the Yankee lineup tonight. He’s never faced Hamels before. Hideki Matsui rides pine due to the lack of DH at the National League Park. Expect a pinch-hitting appearance from Matsui in the late innings, but don’t expect to see him in the field unless there’s a substitution crunch (the Yankees have Gardner, Hinske, and Hairston who can go out to the field before Matsui would have to), particularly on a wet field. The Phillies’ lineup is standard.

Even if they came close to ending the series in Anaheim and likely feel a little bit diminished about having to crank things back up in the Bronx prior to the World Series, the Yankees have to feel pretty comfortable heading into tonight’s Game Six up three games to two in the ALCS with CC Sabathia lurking to pitch Game Seven if necessary. The have to because the only other option invites the ghosts of 2004 to mingle with old dames Mystique and Aura, who are still hanging their inspirational posters in the new Yankee clubhouse.

There are only five Yankees, and no coaches, remaining from the 2004 team that blew a 3-0 lead in the ALCS against the Red Sox–Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Alex Rodriguez–but it surely lingers in the minds of Johnny Damon, who was on the other side of that collapse, and Andy Pettitte, who spent October 2004 in Texas, nursing his surgically repaired pitching elbow and likely wishing he could have taken the ball for his old mates in the disastrous Game Seven.

Pettitte gets his chance tonight, looking to put the Yankees into the World Series for the first time since 2003, the final year of his initial run with the team. Alex and I both expect Pettitte to come up big, but the fact that the Yankees are 0-5 in their last two ALCS in potential series-clinching games will linger in my mind until they put a “1” in the win column there.

Pettitte’s start tonight will be his first home start of this postseason. Pettitte struggled at the new Yankee Stadium early in the regular season. On May 7, in his third start at the new park, he gave up four home runs in six innings in a loss to the Rays. In his previous start, he had allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Angels in a game the Yankees came back to win. However, Pettitte seemed to finally settle in at the new digs down the stretch. In four home starts in August and September, he posted a 2.52 ERA and compiled this line: 25 IP, 22 H, 7 R, 11 BB, 20 K. Yes, the walks were a bit high, but he allowed just one home run in those four starts, a seventh-inning solo shot by David Murphy.

Joe Saunders is the man charged with extending the Angels’ season. Saunders pitched very well, and very similarly, in his last two starts against the Yankees, September 21 in Anaheim (8 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K), and in Game Two of this series in the Bronx (7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K). With that ALCS start included, Saunders is 7-0 with a 2.56 ERA in nine starts since returning from a disabled-list stay due to a tired pitching shoulder.

Despite a tendency to overmanage in other areas thus far this series, Joe Girardi is running out his standard lineup tonight, complete with Nick Swisher batting in his usual eight spot. The only question now is if they’ll get the game in. They’ll try, primarily to avoid facing Jered Weaver and John Lackey in the final two games. At this point in the postseason, I doubt there’s much risk of losing gate due to a one-day delay.

In every postseason series there are certain games that, based on the starting pitchers, teams consider built-in wins. These are the games that a team believes it has to win in order to, if you’ll pardon the mixed-sports metaphor, hold serve in the series. For the Yankees, those games are the ones started by CC Sabathia (they’re 2-for-2 thus far). For the Phillies, they’re the games started by Cliff Lee (3-for-3). For the Dodgers, they’re the games started by Clayton Kershaw (their loss in his Game One start is why they’re trailing in the NLCS).

The Angels’ must-win games are those started by this afternoon’s starting pitcher, Jered Weaver. The Angels won Weaver’s Game Two start in the ALDS against the Red Sox, taking commanding 2-0 lead in the series on their way to a three-game sweep. Coming into this series, they rejiggered their rotation so that Weaver could make his first start at Angel Stadium, where his ERA this season was nearly two runs better than it was on the road (and is nearly a run better on his career) and where he made his strong ALDS start. Weaver was the Angels’ best starter during the regular season and tonight matches up against Andy Pettitte, the Yankees’ number-three. That’s as close to a favorable pitching matchup as the Angels are going to get prior to John Lackey taking on A.J. Burnett in Game Five. This is a game the Halos have to have.

That would be true even if the Angels didn’t come home down 0-2 in the series, but given that predicament, this game goes from a must-have to perhaps their last chance to save their season. Because both of the games in New York were played as scheduled (despite foreboding forecasts of rain), CC Sabathia remains on schedule to start Game Four on short rest against Scott Kazmir, who struggled in his ALDS start against the Red Sox. If the Angels lose again tonight, Sabathia, who dominated the Halos in Game One, will take the mound with a chance to complete an unexpected Yankee sweep. (I’d quote the unfavorable stats about teams down 0-3 in best-of-seven series, but the lone exception to the rule just happens be the last team to face the Yankees in the ALCS.)

However, if the Angels win tonight behind Weaver, it makes Game Four a must-win for the Yankees, not only because Sabathia is starting, but because another loss there would let the Angels all the way back into the series, tying it up 2-2 and giving Anaheim all of the momentum heading into that Lackey-Burnett matchup in Game Five.

Weaver made three starts against the Yankees this season, the best of which was the one he made at home, when he struck out nine Yankees in six innings on July 11. Still, even in that game, Weaver allowed four runs (three earned), in part due to the two home runs he allowed. One of those homers was hit by Eric Hinske, who was left off the Yankees’ ALCS roster, but the other was hit by Mr. Clutch himself, Alex Rodriguez.

The loser in that game, incidentally, was Andy Pettitte, who gave up six runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 innings. Pettitte was similarly kicked around in an earlier start against the Angels in the Bronx, but a return trip to Anaheim resulted in a quality-start win on September 21. The difference was the overall improvement in Pettitte’s pitching in the second half, which he maintained with a solid start against the Twins in the clinching game in the ALDS.

In his two postseason starts since returning to the Yankees, Pettitte, who tied John Smoltz for the most postseason wins ever with that win in the Metrodome’s final game, has allowed just one run in 12 2/3 innings, striking out 12 against three walks and no homers. Weaver has a 2.19 ERA in two career postseason starts, both of them coming at home against the Red Sox in the ALDS. He’ll face the usual Yankee lineup this afternoon.

One of my big fears about A.J. Burnett was that he would be the 2009 version of Randy Johnson. In his two years as a Yankee, Johnson won 34 games, struck out 383 men, and had one key run of dominance, posting a 1.93 ERA over his final eight starts of 2005 as the team went 7-1 in those games and won the AL East via a tie-breaker with the Wild Card Red Sox. Those handsome counting stats and one hot stretch belied the fact that Johnson was maddeningly inconsistent and enigmatic, and used Jorge Posada as his scapegoat for his struggles, forcing his manager to pair him up with weak-hitting backup John Flaherty.

Most significantly, Johnson, who was brought in to be the dominant ace who would make the difference for the Yankees in the postseason as he had for the 2001 Diamondbacks who beat the Yankees in the World Series, was awful in both of his postseason starts as a Yankee. To make matters worse, both of those starts were key Game Three rubber matches in best-of-five ALDS series that were tied 1-1. Johnson’s failures put the Yankees in 1-2 holes against the Angels in 2005 and the Tigers in 2006, a game away from elimination, contributing mightily to the team’s first-round exits both years.

Burnett has proven to be a far better teammate than Johnson, but his regular season performance in 2009 was certainly Unit-esque. However, his role in the postseason has thus far been very different. There are two key reasons. The first is that CC Sabathia, not Burnett, is the man the Yankees are counting on to be that dominant post-season ace, and Sabathia has thus far delivered. The second is that Burnett, though he opened the season in the third spot in the rotation behind Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, is not starting those crucial Games Three. Instead he’s following Sabathia, which means that thus far both of his starts have come with the Yankees up 1-0. That’s a much lower risk situation as a Burnett stinker would do no worse than tie the series with plenty of games left to play.

Also, to Burnett’s credit, he pitched well against the Twins in his first career postseason start. It was a typical Burnett outing in which he put more men on base (seven, five via walk plus two hit by pitch) than got there via hits (three), but the end result was just one run alowed in six innings and, ultimately, a Yankee win.

Tonight he looks to put the Yankees up 2-0 against the arch-rival Angels and lefty Joe Saunders, once again pitching to Jose Molina. As for Saunders, he’s been excellent since returning from an August DL stay, going 7-0 in eight starts with a 2.55 ERA, including a strong 8 1/3-inning outing against the Yankees in Anaheim on September 21. The DL stay was due to a tight shoulder, and it seems the two weeks off were exactly what he needed.

Outside of Molina batting ninth, the Yankee order is the same as last night, including Hideki Matsui DHing against the lefty (because he hits them well, and so that Posada can sub in for Molina once Burnett is out of the game).

Despite forecasts of rain, it’s still dry in northern New Jersey a half-hour before first pitch. Still, the bitter cold could negatively effect Burnett’s ability to grip his knuckle-curve, giving sinker/slider pitcher Saunders and edge. If so, perhaps Girardi will get Posada in the game even earlier, as it was Burnett’s doubts about Posada’s ability to block that curve in the dirt that led to his preference for Molina.

This is going to be epic. The ALCS should be pretty good, too.

When the decade began, the idea of a Yankees-Angels rivalry seemed laughable. The Yankees were on their way to their fourth world championship in five years and the Angels hadn’t made the postseason since 1986. Then came 2002. Having come two outs from a fifth title in 2001, the Yankees won the AL East for the fifth year in a row and were matched up against a surprising 99-win Wild Card team from Anaheim in the first round. The Yankees were the clear favorites, but after pulling out a come-from-behind win in Game One thanks to an eighth-inning homer by Bernie Williams, they were swept in the next three games by the relentless Angels, who went on to win the franchise’s first pennant and world championship.

A losing season in 2003 seemed to paint the Halos as a fluke, but they came storming back in 2004 and won their division. Since then, the Angels have won the AL West in five of the last six years, went 30-18 against the Yankees from 2004 to 2008, and beat the Yankees in the ALDS again in 2005 in a nerve-wracking series that saw the Yankees blow fifth-inning leads in Games Two and Three and lose Game Five in large part because of an outfield collision between Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby that allowed two runs to score.

It was also that series that, to many minds, sealed Alex Rodriguez’s reputation as a post-season choker. Rodriguez hit .133 in the series and, representing the tying run in the ninth inning of Game Five, followed a Derek Jeter leadoff single with a back-breaking double-play. The trick was that the Angels gave Rodriguez nothing to hit, walking him six times and hitting him twice. As with that double play, Alex got himself into trouble by expanding his zone and swinging at the junk he was being offered, but he still posted a .435 on-base percentage on the series. That devilish and effective strategy came from the mind of manager Mike Scioscia, who took over the Angels in 2000 and has presided over what has been by far the franchise’s most successful decade.

The Angels seemed to have the Yankees’ number again this year when they swept them in Anaheim just before the All-Star break to take a 4-2 lead in the season series, but the Yankees, as they did to the entire league, stormed back in the second half to even the series, thus avoiding losing the season set to the Halos for the first time since 2003.

Both teams swept their way to this year’s ALCS, though the Angels did it in more convincing fashion against a superior opponent, the Red Sox, while the Yankees needed a pair of comebacks to beat the lowly Twins. For the Angels, it is their first ALCS appearance since they beat the Yankees to get there in 2005. For the Yankees, it’s their first since they were victims of the Red Sox’s groundbreaking comeback from a 0-3 deficit in games in 2004. Though both teams are postseason staples, making five of the last six, neither has reached the World Series since the Yankees out-lasted the Red Sox in the epic 2003 ALCS.

The blood isn’t nearly as bad in this matchup, but the Yankees find themselves on an unfamiliar side of this one-sided rivalry. It’s the Bombers who always come up short in this pairing. Having finally escaped the perilous best-of-five format of the Division Series, this rivalry will literally reach the next level over the next week. Though the Yankees are clearly the better team by objective measure, I expect the series will be hard-fought and heart-stopping. My official prediction is Yankees in seven, and I expect nothing less.

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